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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

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LeoV

Jules Verne Trophy 2016

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Wow, just Wow

 

Seems like my two gybes is wrong and they may just make it under 41 days. Very glad if my original position turns out wrong.

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12 hours until Day 41, 326 miles to finish. VMG needed to finish before Day 41 – 27.2 knts.

 

At this point, they are racing against boats making an attempt in 2018, 2019, etc.

 

In terms of percentage, this looks like the third largest reduction of the record.

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Looks like Idec Sport will complete this circumnavigation while sailing about 2800 fewer miles than Banque Populaire and 2300 fewer than Groupama. Not to diminish their accomplishment but these guys have been both very good and very lucky. My guess is the next challenger will have a significantly faster boat, probably a foiler, because they can't reasonably expect better conditions.

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As noted earlier, the idec website is doing something weird so go straight to http://fralo.info/jv01.html and click on the Cartographie button for the map etc. (Fralo posted a direct link as well up the thread).

 

If you look at the track it's hard to convince yourself they could have saved more than maybe a day or a day and a half, notably with the slow southern doldrums crossing, in the whole route. And on to that relative good fortune you have the extraordinary Indian Ocean crossing and this incredibly short equator to Ouessant route. It's hard to imagine better conditions so the you have to think the next record breaker will have to be extremely fast and also very fortunate. What a stunning trip.

 

As I write this they are 198.2 nm away at 28kts. At that speed they'll be in an hour under 41 days. I recall people talking after the trip last year that the theoretical limit was about 40 days if you added the best previous times at each sections. That may have to be revisited. The system they were sailing in should henceforth be called The Perfect Storm. The actual perfect storm, not an ironic perfect storm of the movie which is actually a really bad storm.

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Some hours left, hope they don't hit anything. Smashing the crewed record after the losing the solo record would be quite a comeback.

 

Seems who ever wants to beat this will have to go around in under 40 days. 40 days! Where is the time we thought 80 days was a high bar to set?

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I am so proud of what these guys are achieving, but damn I was wishing they would crack the 40 days!

 

At least that leaves a record for those who wish to follow.

 

Bon Chance to the new guard!

I was wishing for under 40 too. Looking like just under 41 now, which is still freaking amazing.

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So, they have been cranking along at just under 30knts for ages, and at this same time, BPV was effectively still going backward with negative VMG. Idec will be ahead by effectively more than 2,500 miles by the time they finish.

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OK, so 4 more hours to go before hitting 41 days, Currently sailing VMG at 28+ knots, and less than 100 miles to go.

 

 

 

Don't

 

 

Change

 

 

Anything...

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Idec Sport is expected to arrive at Ushant at around 7:40 UTC, beat the round-the-world record in just under 41 days, and improve the Cap Horn Ushant and Ecuador Ushant times.

 

Fantastic !

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Hopefully there will be aerial footage at some point before they cross the finish line.

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This is going to be close.

 

Presently 33 miles to go , 1 hour 43 minutes to go to Day 41 and doing 21.3 knots

 

Go Go Go

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It will be (or already is) 40 something !

Too bad they don't have even a periscope feed or something for the line crossing ! :(

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Finished 40 days 23 hours 32 minutes

 

Right on sunrise.

 

Fantastic.

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This will be very hard to beat. Not sure what kind of a machine will be able to get the job done

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They were 22 hours slower than BPV from Ouessant to Good Hope, and 1d 8h slower from the Horn to the Equator: 2d 6h that can certainly be improved.

But what about the rest ?

 

edit: just realized: 41d is barely less than 1000 hours XD

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40h 23d 30h 30min

22 461nm 22,84 knots (theoretical distance and average speed)

26 412nm 26,85 knots (actual distance and average speed)

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Simply incredible- wonder will they get some front page love now from 'the biggest sailiing website on the planet' now?

 

 

Cannot wait to see the pictures of the crew after the finish.

 

Joyon is a God in my eyes.

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They were 22 hours slower than BPV from Ouessant to Good Hope, and 1d 8h slower from the Horn to the Equator: 2d 6h that can certainly be improved.

But what about the rest ?

 

edit: just realized: 41d is barely less than 1000 hours XD

 

1d 15h (if I did not miscaculate) faster than BPV from Equator to Ushant, that's the hard one

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Incroyable!

 

I've been a huge admirer of Francis Joyon since he first set the solo RTW record in a boat which wasn't designed for single-handing and with sails that had already been round the planet at least once. No shoreside routing, minimal sponsorship - I think he hand-painted the hulls himself before setting off. No fanfare, just extraordinary achievements.

 

He set a challenging target for Ellen Macarthur's fully funded, purpose built, shoreside routed campaign. And then demolished her record by nearly two weeks when he had a similarly tooled-up programme. (Which is not to take away from Ellen's magnificent achievement; I am in awe of both of them.)

 

To witness this, just a few weeks after Thomas Coville finally took his solo record, has made my year. What a man. What a team.

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Watching live! OUTSTANDING! Heartiest CONGRATULATIONS! What a lap of this marble!

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So, will the next boat to beat this record be a foiling cat or a foiling tri?

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What a piss-poor website we are on. Not a damned mention of the biggest record in the sport being obliterated on the comical front page.

I'm going to try to "report" my post here and see if it helps get attention.

 

This record is superb!!!!

 

Edit: report function growls at such use... any other ideas?

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some one can note the longest run days. I think there were 11 days making 800 m +. Not bad on a 40 day trip.. and a small boat.

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From fralo:

 

- nombre de jours entre 600 et 700 milles nautiques : 10

- nombre de jours entre 700 et 800 milles nautiques : 4

- nombre de jours entre 800 et 900 milles nautiques : 8

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Yoh, congrats to the crew.

Like the under 1000 hour statement...

 

So this is the third time Joyon shocks the offshore sailing community. He did it again. Impressive.

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The Idec Website indicates the best 24hr run to be as follows:

Maximum reached : 36.6 kts 879 nm / 24h

But see also from today's press release:

"fourteenth day, when they clocked up 894 miles averaging 37.3 knots. For eight days, they sailed more than 800 miles and seven over 700 miles."

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The pressure is on Spindrift now to beat it. They gave spent a shit load of cash on a programme that will be even harder to beat!

 

Bravo Francis !

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So, will the next boat to beat this record be a foiling cat or a foiling tri?

Suppose there would have been another multihull capable of sailing 25% faster in all wind conditions than IdecSport. I think that if it would have started 6 hours after Idec, it would have finished no more than 6 hours earlier, making at most 12 hours faster circumnavigation. In real life it could not have predicted the weather all around the globe in advance, and would not have picked that starting time. Had it started at the same time, it would have been more than 1.5 days in ahead at Cap Horn, and lost almost all of that advantage to Idec during the Atlantic. It would have finished in the same weather as Idec only a few hours ahead at most, because there was a huge light wind area almost across the whole NorthAtlantic a day before.

That is the effect of weather patterns. The biggest improvements in individual legs if sailed at the same time would have been down the Atlantic or from NewZealand to Cap Horn, both more than a day. However it would not be logically possible to sail both legs at the same time than Idec, while also sailing at faster average speeds.

What is necessary to break the record would be any of these:

- Both a faster boat and equally lucky weather (less than 5% probability) or

- significantly (> 33%) faster boat and almost as lucky weather (max 25 % probability)

- same boat performance and better luck with weather (less than 0.5 % probability)

 

Sailing a shorter distance down south without hitting anything might be possible in some weather conditions, but only if technology advances to detect Ice and sealife.

That would increase the probabilities for suitable weather required to break the record.

 

At this point only a faster boat will not be enough, unless it would be more than 50% faster in all wind conditions, and I don't think that is possible any time soon.

Also having a faster top speed due to fully foiling would not have made any significant difference for the new IDEC record time. It would only have caused sailing in to less wind in the southern ocean between low pressure systems and having the same speed as Idec had in a better place. A better boat needs also to be faster in lighter wind conditions. That would allow hopping from current low to the previous one even then the current one doesn't slow down like happened south of NZ for Idec allowing it to do just that. 33% improvement is required for that kind of hopping.

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From 79 days in 93/94 on Commodore Explorer to within shouting distance of half that 23 years later is just astonishing.

Is most certainly is, by far one of the most interesting ocean story's to have followed. That and the Imoca fleet over the generations.

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So, will the next boat to beat this record be a foiling cat or a foiling tri?

Suppose there would have been another multihull capable of sailing 25% faster in all wind conditions than IdecSport. I think that if it would have started 6 hours after Idec, it would have finished no more than 6 hours earlier, making at most 12 hours faster circumnavigation. In real life it could not have predicted the weather all around the globe in advance, and would not have picked that starting time. Had it started at the same time, it would have been more than 1.5 days in ahead at Cap Horn, and lost almost all of that advantage to Idec during the Atlantic. It would have finished in the same weather as Idec only a few hours ahead at most, because there was a huge light wind area almost across the whole NorthAtlantic a day before.

That is the effect of weather patterns. The biggest improvements in individual legs if sailed at the same time would have been down the Atlantic or from NewZealand to Cap Horn, both more than a day. However it would not be logically possible to sail both legs at the same time than Idec, while also sailing at faster average speeds.

What is necessary to break the record would be any of these:

- Both a faster boat and equally lucky weather (less than 5% probability) or

- significantly (> 33%) faster boat and almost as lucky weather (max 25 % probability)

- same boat performance and better luck with weather (less than 0.5 % probability)

 

Sailing a shorter distance down south without hitting anything might be possible in some weather conditions, but only if technology advances to detect Ice and sealife.

That would increase the probabilities for suitable weather required to break the record.

 

At this point only a faster boat will not be enough, unless it would be more than 50% faster in all wind conditions, and I don't think that is possible any time soon.

Also having a faster top speed due to fully foiling would not have made any significant difference for the new IDEC record time. It would only have caused sailing in to less wind in the southern ocean between low pressure systems and having the same speed as Idec had in a better place. A better boat needs also to be faster in lighter wind conditions. That would allow hopping from current low to the previous one even then the current one doesn't slow down like happened south of NZ for Idec allowing it to do just that. 33% improvement is required for that kind of hopping.

I would love to see your analysis to support your probability numbers. They are presented in a factual manner so I am assuming there is hard data to support them?

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The 2016 season is over, the record has fallen. Whats next?

Waiting for spindrift and then more of the same, or going the other way? The westward records are all single handed and much longer (122 days, 2004, monohull), Trying to find out if you can do it under 80 days and sponsor another trophy?

 

Or will it be retirement for Joyon? ;)

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The 2016 season is over, the record has fallen. Whats next?

Waiting for spindrift and then more of the same, or going the other way? The westward records are all single handed and much longer (122 days, 2004, monohull), Trying to find out if you can do it under 80 days and sponsor another trophy?

 

Or will it be retirement for Joyon? ;)

 

If you read from Joyon's quotes: at low TWAs they had to slow down a lot as the boat was slamming and suffering. Not the right boat.

 

I guess that a westabout record requires a purposely designed boat and is necessarily slower. By how much that's the big question.

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So, will the next boat to beat this record be a foiling cat or a foiling tri?

Suppose there would have been another multihull capable of sailing 25% faster in all wind conditions than IdecSport. I think that if it would have started 6 hours after Idec, it would have finished no more than 6 hours earlier, making at most 12 hours faster circumnavigation. In real life it could not have predicted the weather all around the globe in advance, and would not have picked that starting time. Had it started at the same time, it would have been more than 1.5 days in ahead at Cap Horn, and lost almost all of that advantage to Idec during the Atlantic. It would have finished in the same weather as Idec only a few hours ahead at most, because there was a huge light wind area almost across the whole NorthAtlantic a day before.

That is the effect of weather patterns. The biggest improvements in individual legs if sailed at the same time would have been down the Atlantic or from NewZealand to Cap Horn, both more than a day. However it would not be logically possible to sail both legs at the same time than Idec, while also sailing at faster average speeds.

What is necessary to break the record would be any of these:

- Both a faster boat and equally lucky weather (less than 5% probability) or

- significantly (> 33%) faster boat and almost as lucky weather (max 25 % probability)

- same boat performance and better luck with weather (less than 0.5 % probability)

 

Sailing a shorter distance down south without hitting anything might be possible in some weather conditions, but only if technology advances to detect Ice and sealife.

That would increase the probabilities for suitable weather required to break the record.

 

At this point only a faster boat will not be enough, unless it would be more than 50% faster in all wind conditions, and I don't think that is possible any time soon.

Also having a faster top speed due to fully foiling would not have made any significant difference for the new IDEC record time. It would only have caused sailing in to less wind in the southern ocean between low pressure systems and having the same speed as Idec had in a better place. A better boat needs also to be faster in lighter wind conditions. That would allow hopping from current low to the previous one even then the current one doesn't slow down like happened south of NZ for Idec allowing it to do just that. 33% improvement is required for that kind of hopping.

I would love to see your analysis to support your probability numbers. They are presented in a factual manner so I am assuming there is hard data to support them?

 

I think the basic point is valid, with the current generation of RTW multi-hulls capable of staying with weather systems record attempts have become weather dependant not boat/crew dependant. To overcome the weather limitation a boat would have to be able to sail faster than the weather systems in the lighter air between the systems. That's a tall order.

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Current westward record holder at 122 days is Jean Luc Van Den Heede on Adrien (~85foot, ~12ton). [homepage] Next up for him should be the Golden Globe.

Steve White wants to beat that record on a VO70. That campaign started in 2015, last news from mid 2016. As so often marathon rather than a sprint.

 

This year big tris went downwind ~twice as fast as an IMOCA. If they are also twice as fast upwind as an 1990 vintage IMOCA it is enough. The previous record holder used one, Philippe Monnet in 2000, 151 days.

 

 

 

 

As far as catching weather system goes we'll see how foils develop in offshore use. That should improve low wind speeds nicely. Will it be enough? Only one way to find out, wait what the Ultime teams have up their sleeve..

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So, will the next boat to beat this record be a foiling cat or a foiling tri?

Suppose there would have been another multihull capable of sailing 25% faster in all wind conditions than IdecSport. I think that if it would have started 6 hours after Idec, it would have finished no more than 6 hours earlier, making at most 12 hours faster circumnavigation. In real life it could not have predicted the weather all around the globe in advance, and would not have picked that starting time. Had it started at the same time, it would have been more than 1.5 days in ahead at Cap Horn, and lost almost all of that advantage to Idec during the Atlantic. It would have finished in the same weather as Idec only a few hours ahead at most, because there was a huge light wind area almost across the whole NorthAtlantic a day before.

That is the effect of weather patterns. The biggest improvements in individual legs if sailed at the same time would have been down the Atlantic or from NewZealand to Cap Horn, both more than a day. However it would not be logically possible to sail both legs at the same time than Idec, while also sailing at faster average speeds.

What is necessary to break the record would be any of these:

- Both a faster boat and equally lucky weather (less than 5% probability) or

- significantly (> 33%) faster boat and almost as lucky weather (max 25 % probability)

- same boat performance and better luck with weather (less than 0.5 % probability)

 

Sailing a shorter distance down south without hitting anything might be possible in some weather conditions, but only if technology advances to detect Ice and sealife.

That would increase the probabilities for suitable weather required to break the record.

 

At this point only a faster boat will not be enough, unless it would be more than 50% faster in all wind conditions, and I don't think that is possible any time soon.

Also having a faster top speed due to fully foiling would not have made any significant difference for the new IDEC record time. It would only have caused sailing in to less wind in the southern ocean between low pressure systems and having the same speed as Idec had in a better place. A better boat needs also to be faster in lighter wind conditions. That would allow hopping from current low to the previous one even then the current one doesn't slow down like happened south of NZ for Idec allowing it to do just that. 33% improvement is required for that kind of hopping.

I would love to see your analysis to support your probability numbers. They are presented in a factual manner so I am assuming there is hard data to support them?

 

I didn't intend to mislead anyone with that as factual. It is most certainly not anything else than my opinion based on my own original research.

I would have thought certainties imply factual while probabilities generally do not.

You are free to have and/or present you own opinion on the matter that disagrees mine.

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So, will the next boat to beat this record be a foiling cat or a foiling tri?

Suppose there would have been another multihull capable of sailing 25% faster in all wind conditions than IdecSport. I think that if it would have started 6 hours after Idec, it would have finished no more than 6 hours earlier, making at most 12 hours faster circumnavigation. In real life it could not have predicted the weather all around the globe in advance, and would not have picked that starting time. Had it started at the same time, it would have been more than 1.5 days in ahead at Cap Horn, and lost almost all of that advantage to Idec during the Atlantic. It would have finished in the same weather as Idec only a few hours ahead at most, because there was a huge light wind area almost across the whole NorthAtlantic a day before.

That is the effect of weather patterns. The biggest improvements in individual legs if sailed at the same time would have been down the Atlantic or from NewZealand to Cap Horn, both more than a day. However it would not be logically possible to sail both legs at the same time than Idec, while also sailing at faster average speeds.

What is necessary to break the record would be any of these:

- Both a faster boat and equally lucky weather (less than 5% probability) or

- significantly (> 33%) faster boat and almost as lucky weather (max 25 % probability)

- same boat performance and better luck with weather (less than 0.5 % probability)

 

Sailing a shorter distance down south without hitting anything might be possible in some weather conditions, but only if technology advances to detect Ice and sealife.

That would increase the probabilities for suitable weather required to break the record.

 

At this point only a faster boat will not be enough, unless it would be more than 50% faster in all wind conditions, and I don't think that is possible any time soon.

Also having a faster top speed due to fully foiling would not have made any significant difference for the new IDEC record time. It would only have caused sailing in to less wind in the southern ocean between low pressure systems and having the same speed as Idec had in a better place. A better boat needs also to be faster in lighter wind conditions. That would allow hopping from current low to the previous one even then the current one doesn't slow down like happened south of NZ for Idec allowing it to do just that. 33% improvement is required for that kind of hopping.

I would love to see your analysis to support your probability numbers. They are presented in a factual manner so I am assuming there is hard data to support them?

 

I think the basic point is valid, with the current generation of RTW multi-hulls capable of staying with weather systems record attempts have become weather dependant not boat/crew dependant. To overcome the weather limitation a boat would have to be able to sail faster than the weather systems in the lighter air between the systems. That's a tall order.

 

That is very close (as a generalization) to what I intended to say.

To make it (=my opinion) a little bit more precise:

1) As a result of Idecs achievement successful record attempts have become much more weather dependant than boat/crew dependant.

2) during sailing in southern ocean: To overcome the weather limitation a boat would have to be able to sail faster than the weather systems in the lighter air (typically < 15 knots, but > 10 knots and to make it worse, on a VMG down wind course, going east with winds from the west) between the systems. That's a tall order. (=unforeseen new innovations required to make it happen, continual improvements on known technology not going to make it happen)

3) during Atlantic up/down courses: weather situation has a much greater effect on sailing time than boat performance due to crew & polars, and it is not possible to predict that weather up the Atlantic in 30+ days advance.

4) during doldrums crossings both boat performance and weather are significant, but bad weather can waste more time than better boat speed can benefit.

5) on average weather situation I don't consider further improvements on record time possible without at least 33% increase in boat polars. The requirement in those conditions can be much more than 33%.

 

The key point being that x% faster boat does not mean x% better time, not even close, because of the effect of weather patterns.

And because all of that is my opinion instead of fact, anybody is free to prove me wrong.

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