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22 minutes ago, Lark said:

The Republican President called it a Chinese conspiracy and has denied it over a hundred times.  Of the Republican primary candidates, only the Ohio Governor admitted it was real.   Vice President Pence calls climate change a myth.   Republican candidate Scott Wagner said its because we are moving closer to the sun (the earth is spinning further away) and body heat was causing it as well.   Tom Cruz quoted followed several here, in saying the presence of snow on a given day proves it is false.      EPA head Scott Prutt (Republican appointment, approved on party lines) says human activity is not a primary contributor.   Mark Rubio said he does not believe mankind is causing changes "as scientists are portraying it".   The Republicans own the pro global warming platform.   Having said that, Clinton admitted it was real, but as a Wall Street conservative probably wouldn't have done much to help.  She wouldn't have made the US the only pro global warming nation at Paris.    Obama was disappointing, but with the obstructionist Congress he battled he could barely chose his own dinner on the White House menu. 

When it comes to 'hoarding' our resources, that is again a Democratic issue.   Obama was too moderate for my liking but fought the Republicans on drilling and other issues several times.      I challenge you to find a well or coal mine the Republicans don't want to exploit immediately.   

Reversing CO2 is not in the cards.  Modestly lImiting the increase is the best we can hope for.   We need to try to minimize the damage, be a source of pressure for other polluters emiters, and begin making long term decisions on what can be protected and what has to be abandoned.   Instead we are the worlds' only pro global warming country.   The Republicans have made us the sole bad guy for all future problems, and provided a ready excuse for any future protectionism against American industry.   Not only are we the most visible part of the problem, we left ourselves politically vulnerable.    

Eventually a few more will get to this POV..hopefully soon..in dog years:rolleyes:

Sadly the Puerto Rico experience seems to have been a wasted fire drill..the bosses went out to lunch.

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29 minutes ago, Lark said:

  The Republicans have made us the sole bad guy for all future problems, and provided a ready excuse for any future protectionism against American industry.   Not only are we the most visible part of the problem, we left ourselves politically vulnerable.    

You don't have all that much USA industry for exported consumer goods so I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. China makes most of your domestic stuff right now. China isn't reducing CO2 emissions either, at best they're reducing the *rate of growth* of their CO2 emissions. Nor do they give a fuck about what the Western elites think about it.

More nukes, more investment in PV arrays, more money into backup storage and a big R&D budget for fusion systems. Instead we build windmills and have to suffer serious proposals to drain dams for the environment's sake. The problem might be serious but the current response is basically an ideologically driven joke.

But the good part is, if sea levels do rise, I'll have a deep waterfront property.

FKT

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Just now, Fah Kiew Tu said:

You don't have all that much USA industry for exported consumer goods so I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. China makes most of your domestic stuff right now. China isn't reducing CO2 emissions either, at best they're reducing the *rate of growth* of their CO2 emissions. Nor do they give a fuck about what the Western elites think about it.

More nukes, more investment in PV arrays, more money into backup storage and a big R&D budget for fusion systems. Instead we build windmills and have to suffer serious proposals to drain dams for the environment's sake. The problem might be serious but the current response is basically an ideologically driven joke.

But the good part is, if sea levels do rise, I'll have a deep waterfront property.

FKT

China is no knight in shining armor, but they can play the card often quoted here regarding the alternate party "America is worse".    Despite our trade deficit a lot of manufacturing still occurs in the rustbelt, its just done by rusty robots.   Industrial equipment and high tech agricultural equipment are industries that don't want to be banned under an ecoprotectionism wrapper.    

There was a prediction reported NPR last week that wind will gradually reduce in America over the next century as consequence of climate change.   Of course that caused me to panic, but it will annoy the wind electricity guys as well.   

I'm inland and on a hill.   I would appreciate a longer sailing season and less snow.  My part of America is not predicted to face increased future droughts in the next few decades.  Hurricanes only bring us strong steady winds for a day.   We are far enough north it will remain inhabitable even without AC if you pace yourself appropriately.    I may switch stances and become pro climate change. 

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Curiously, plankton in the oceans show a rise in growth rate as the water temp increases. Part of the ecosystem we live in. As oceans warm, plankton growth explodes. Plankton consume vast amounts of CO2 and sequester it. Is that the throttle?

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2 hours ago, Lark said:

China is no knight in shining armor, but they can play the card often quoted here regarding the alternate party "America is worse".    Despite our trade deficit a lot of manufacturing still occurs in the rustbelt, its just done by rusty robots.   Industrial equipment and high tech agricultural equipment are industries that don't want to be banned under an ecoprotectionism wrapper.

I hang out a lot on a machinist's forum so I'm pretty aware of the current manufacturing ability in the USA. That's why I specified exported consumer goods. Other stuff you're still world leaders but slowing quite quickly.

Also unemployment in manufacturing has risen a lot and those jobs are never coming back no matter what Trump or anyone else says. Even small manufacturing businesses are buying CNC machinery rather than hiring (nice shiny robots in fact). Matter of fact I'm seriously thinking of buying a Tormach CNC mill myself because I hate making more than one of anything. Productivity will rise but there won't be much in the way of good paying base worker level jobs out of it. Techs, sure, but probably 1% to 5% of people in the biz max.

I've no great love for China but they're driving manufacturing tech in a way the USA used to do and no longer does.

They're also building nuke power stations. Best way to get rid of coal burning power plants, build something that delivers baseload power better.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx

FKT

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On 12/19/2017 at 9:32 AM, random said:

See that's what he does.  He slinks away when his shit doesn't stack up, by peeks all the time.  I can see when he peeks.

He continues to avoid admitting that man, through burning fossil fuels, is changing the climate. 

  • He disagrees with the best science on the planet
  • He agrees with climate change denial sites
  • He posts 'correlation is not causation' shit to discredit the relationship between CO2 emissions and climate change. while denying that is what he is doing.
  • He continues not to answer direct questions but sticks to the script of sowing seeds of climate change doubt
  • When completely fucked, he posts the same old "the climate has always been changing shit" ... then runs away.

 

hey cockhead (may as well keep up the personal abuse you accuse me of), I'm back!

- I disagree with some bullshit 97% 'consensus' - Firstly, consensus is not science, secondly, the 97% number is hokum. Look it up.

- I have no idea what studies on correlation have to do with some mythical thing called 'climate change denial', but there you go.

- I haven't denied anything. I am quite open in ridiculing your stupidity at every turn. Correlation is not causation. Look up those words and learn what each of them means

- no idea what this one is about. Something about farming, writing, and obfuscation

- yes. I admit. I ran away to the real life I lead. It tends to happen.

 

Oh - and your first point. I stated the exact opposite. I'll quote my previous post, just so you can re-read it, I'll even bold the bits you need to pay extra attention to.

Do try to keep up.

 

This is in response to you on 12/19/2017 at 7:41 AM, writing "So tell us all Dunc, is man burning black stuff changing the climate?"

On 12/19/2017 at 7:50 AM, duncan (the other one) said:

I do not know any certainties more than anyone else, however I think you are asking if I believe it to be so.

Then the answer to your question is yes, and you will not find many arguing against that.

A more important question for useful idiots such as yourself to answer is by how much?

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2 hours ago, duncan (the other one) said:

This is in response to you on 12/19/2017 at 7:41 AM, writing "So tell us all Dunc, is man burning black stuff changing the climate?"

On 12/19/2017 at 7:50 AM, duncan (the other one) said:

I do not know any certainties more than anyone else, however I think you are asking if I believe it to be so.

Then the answer to your question is yes, and you will not find many arguing against that.

A more important question for useful idiots such as yourself to answer is by how much?

so - you still won't acknowledge this, will you?

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21 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

Well I don't think you've said they do?

Personally I think we have to get over whether the current cycle is exacerbated by human activity or not.

Things appear to be changing..we have no time left to slow it..but we do have time to prepare...If people would just stop being stupid about it. 

Hmm...interesting science 

IMG_7419.PNG

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1 hour ago, random said:

in Australia,

 

Australian coal, oil and gas companies receive $4b in subsidies: report

 

A new report finds exploration by coal and energy companies is subsidised by Australian taxpayers by as much as $US3.5 billion ($4 billion) every year in the form of direct spending and tax breaks.

Ha - that old chestnut. http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2014/11/G20-Fossil-Fuel-Bailout-Full.pdf

Firstly, 'oilchange international' is hardly an objective source.  No matter. Let's delve a little deeper (its always good to go a couple of levels down into the rabbit hole, ramdom).

Quote

In Australia, this includes exploration funding for Geoscience Australia and tax deductions for mining and petroleum exploration. The report also classifies the Federal Government's fuel rebate program for resources companies as a subsidy.

 

From page 51 of that report:

Quote

The Australian Government provides several national subsidies aimed explicitly at promoting fossil fuel exploration, in addition to production subsidies that also benefit exploration activities. In total, these national subsidies are worth between $2.9 and $3.5 billion each year (Geoscience Australia, 2014).

 

The Geoscience Australia (2014) reference in that paper points to http://www.ga.gov.au/about/corporate-documents/funding-2013-14

No mention of billions of dollars of subsidies.  In fact Geoscience Australia has an annual budget of something like $200M.. so no idea where $3-3.5B comes from. Do you?  Maybe its  "$26 million per annum" for the next 100 years?

No mention from that very same page that, quote: " Resources sector economic activity accounted for $190 billion in exports and 7.4% of GDP in 2010-11", nor that they pay approximately $15-20B per annum in royalties and company tax

No matter.

 

Quote

The largest of these subsidies is a fuel-tax credit scheme; the Australian mining industry – including coal companies – receives more than $2 billion in subsidies every year (Environment Victoria and Market Forces, 2014).

This is the funniest.  The fuel excise is (notionally) for funding of roads. Exemption (rebates) for that excise are available to just about any off-road activity.

ref. https://www.ato.gov.au/business/fuel-schemes/fuel-tax-credits---business/eligibility/eligible-activities/all-other-business-uses/

Quote
  • agriculture
  • fishing
  • forestry
  • mining
  • marine and rail transport
  • nursing and medical services
  • burner applications
  • electricity generation by commercial generator plant, stationary generator or a portable generator
  • construction
  • manufacturing
  • wholesale/retail
  • property management
  • landscaping
  • dredging
  • panel beating
  • greenhouse heating
  • cement kilns
  • quarrying
  • industrial furnaces
  • non-fuel uses, including  
    • fuel you use to clean machinery parts or drums
    • diesel you spray directly onto a road as a sealant
    • fuel you use as a mould release
    • fuel you use as an input or ingredient – for example, printer inks, paint and adhesives.

 

I'll ignore the 'subsidies for fossil fuel, versus investment in renewables' slight of hand.

 

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1 hour ago, random said:

Fuck the models I don;t need them the look at what has happened already and come to my own conclusions.

 

so tell us ramdom.  What have you observed personally in your sad, short little life that convinces you we're headed for thermal armageddon ?

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10 minutes ago, random said:

That's all I need to do to continue to make you look like a fuckwit, it's easy. 

If you think that report is wrong, let's have the evidence.

 

How about you find the primary source of "$2.9 - 3.5B/year Geoscience Australia (2014)"

The fuel excise subsidy (the other $2B) - I've debunked.

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Ok - because you are too lazy... newspaper article you linked refers to this report, which is just an update of the one I previously went through like a dose of salts.

http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2015/11/empty_promises_full_report_update.pdf

Data is listed by country at https://www.odi.org/publications/10058-empty-promises-g20-subsidies-oil-gas-and-coal-production

Australian data is here: https://www.odi.org/publications/10071-g20-subsidies-oil-gas-and-coal-production-australia

they even have a handy spreadsheet - total is $USD 4.7B for 2014.

Let's have a look at the top 5 claims by value, shall we.  Value / 'Subsidy Type' / Description

All the 'Tax Expenditure' ones are somehow equating lack of tax (or rebate) as a subsidy. I guess the % of your income you don't pay to the government is a subsidy. Go figure.

 

1. $1.75B  / Tax Expenditure  /  Statutory effective life caps – accelerated depreciation for fossil-fuel assets

Standard business depreciation, like every other corporate entity in Australia. 

 

2. $0.9B / Tax Expenditure  / Fuel tax credits to mining companies for fuel consumption

discussed above. Standard excise rebate for off-road use of fuel.

 

3. $0.84B / Direct Spending /  Energy Security Fund

This ones a bit trickier.  It references an Environment Victoria report, which is linked from https://environmentvictoria.org.au/2014/03/03/cutting-fossil-fuel-subsidies-a-boon-for-the-budget-reduces-pollution/ but no longer exists at that link.  Through the magic of the net, I found a copy here: http://www.chemtrailsgeelong.com/uploads/EV & MF_Fossil fuel subsidies in 2014_FINAL.pdf

It mentions the "Energy Security Fund – payments and free permits to the most carbon intensive power stations"

Quote

Energy Security Fund: values calculated by multiplying the value of free permit allocations to carbon pollution‐intensive coal‐fired power stations (41.705 million per annum – see
http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Carbon‐Pricing‐Mechanism/Industry‐Assistance/coal‐fired‐generators/Pages/default.aspx) with the forecast carbon price (obtained from Chart 5.1: Australian carbon price,www.carbonpricemodelling.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling/content/chart_table_data/chapter5.asp) where the price taken reflected the second half of that financial year. The Australian Treasury does not include measures related to the Clean Energy Future beyond 2013‐14 as Government policy is to repeal the legislation. However, as this outcome is not certain, we have retained the Energy Security Fund payments (which are linked to the carbon price) in this analysis, providing totals that both include and exclude this measure.

Talk about circular reasoning!  Make up a carbon price emitters have to pay (remember, as Julia says, "its not a tax"), allow some exemptions/rebates, then call it expenditure.  About as magical as Wayne's budget surpluses.

Its another rebate / tax exemption for a fictitious "Carbon Price"

 

4. $0.5B / Tax Expenditure / Deduction for capital works expenditure.
Source http://www.tai.org.au/content/pouring-more-fuel-fire

These sorts of tax deductions are legally used by all sorts of businesses right throughout Australia. Nothing to see here.

 

5. $0.13B / Direct Spending / Capital injection to Stanwell Corporation for coal power plant and mine improvements, including Meandu Mine, Tarong Power Station, Stanwell Power Station, Mica Creek Power Station, Swanbank Power Station (Queensland)

Details in the Qld 2013/14 budget paper 3: https://s3.treasury.qld.gov.au/files/bp3-2013-14.pdf

Firstly, "Stanwell Corporation" is the Qld government owned electricity generation utility.

"Stanwell Corporation's capital purchases for 2013-14 is $196.1 million, which primarily relates to maintaining operations at the various Queensland power station sites."

So the spending is capital improvement and maintenance on a 100% government-owned business.

 

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41 minutes ago, random said:

Subsidies go to fossil fuel companies.  You can spin it all you like but that wont change. 

So our government is subsidising climate change, while strangling alternative energy.  That's fucked!

go back and read it. It is not a subsidy.. unless you consider the tax you don't pay to be a subsidy.

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Extractive industries...minerals...oil.....will always need special treatment.

 

a company may prospect and develope a  potential resource at great expense , then find out that the resource is not economically extractable or that market prices have collapsed and the investment wasted. 

i have no problem with policies that help these industries. 

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7 hours ago, random said:

You have led a sheltered life Dunc.  You have no fucking idea do you?

In the US

"(MISI) estimated the total historical federal subsidies for various energy sources over the years 1950–2010. The study found that oil, natural gas, and coal received $369 billion, $121 billion, and $104 billion (2010 dollars), respectively, or 70% of total energy subsidies over that period."

in Australia,

Australian coal, oil and gas companies receive $4b in subsidies: report

A new report finds exploration by coal and energy companies is subsidised by Australian taxpayers by as much as $US3.5 billion ($4 billion) every year in the form of direct spending and tax breaks.

The govt wrote $592 billion check to energy? Who knew?

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"BHB Billiton of Australia, one of the world’s largest coal companies will break with an international coal organization and threatened to also withdraw from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce over the groups’ backward stances on climate change."  Per the BBC: 

Seems that the smarter rats are leaving the sinking ship "Denial".

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5 hours ago, slug zitski said:

Extractive industries...minerals...oil.....will always need special treatment.

 

a company may prospect and develope a  potential resource at great expense , then find out that the resource is not economically extractable or that market prices have collapsed and the investment wasted. 

i have no problem with policies that help these industries. 

Why do "extractive industries" need special treatment?  Because they aren't economically viable as commercial ventures even paying crappy wages, no benefits and not being responsible for the mess they leave behind?  Is that it?  It certainly isn't because of their societal value.

BTW, aren't solar and wind and hydro also "extractive industries"?  Or does it only count for subsidy if you're dealing with single-use fuels like coal, gas and oil?

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5 hours ago, slug zitski said:

Extractive industries...minerals...oil.....will always need special treatment.

 

a company may prospect and develope a  potential resource at great expense , then find out that the resource is not economically extractable or that market prices have collapsed and the investment wasted. 

i have no problem with policies that help these industries. 

The exact same argument could be made for renewable energy, automotive (every time they start relying on gas guzzling monster vehicles fuel prices jump up and people want efficient vehicles) and even the fashion industry (As soon as the clothes are designed a new fashion comes out with a changed a pleat or hemline and everything has to be retooled.)    Either we switch to a managed economy, or we allow free market to work.   Why should we pick favorites?   

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13 hours ago, random said:

Been sailing.  Your points are weasel words. 

$5bn subsidy a year to fossil fuels in Australia, what don't you get about that?

How many subsidies to brewers, growers, builders?

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16 hours ago, random said:

I can see how much, it is being measured very accurately.

2016-12_p14.png

I do not see a +/- (X *10 to the 21 ) .  What is the accuracy of the measuring devices involved?

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3 hours ago, warbird said:

I do not see a +/- (X *10 to the 21 ) .  What is the accuracy of the measuring devices involved?

Over what range?  When you know the difference between a thermometer and a bolometer,  come back and we can talk.

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1 hour ago, Laker said:

Over what range?  When you know the difference between a thermometer and a bolometer,  come back and we can talk.

I do, NOAA does not have bolometers in the sea surface fleet. The sea surface fleet is the bulk of global surface temp sensors. Those sensors have an accuracy of +/-1 degreeC (2degree swing)

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They don't?  I don't want to blow my cover, but I can assure you that triple-point referenced bolometers are used.

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16 minutes ago, Laker said:

They don't?  I don't want to blow my cover, but I can assure you that triple-point referenced bolometers are used.

Good, what percent of the fleet? NOAA specs page states +/-1 C.

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This would not be "fleet based" as you say, but part of the instrumentation packages they deploy.  Every ship at some point has deployed and retrieved instruments.  One of the accurate and reliable instruments in general use is based on the same principle as the depth meter, usually in the same package, that can measure ripples on the surface of the water from hundreds of feet down.  Quartz is a very stable element, one part in 10*14.  We can measure frequency very accurately with digital counters.  A column of quartz is set to resonate at a set frequency, usually in the megahertz.  As the column is loaded, this frequency changes.  In depth meters, this is done by exposing one end of the column to ambient pressure.  In the thermometer, a stable material with a high coefficient of thermal expansion is used.  Usually amber.  The high thermal expansion material strains the low expansion material and causes a change in frequency. The result is a thermometer that is accurate to within at least one part in 10*6 and over the -20 to +40 C range that is being observed, 10*-5 degrees is entirely possible as an accuracy.  Of course you run into problems with the definition of temperature at such accuracy and of course there is the correction for pressure.  The thought of your $1M AUV running around with a thermometer accurate to only +/-1 C is disturbing at best.

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Just looking through the specs on a regularly used Sea-Bird Scientific thermometer.  25 micro Kelvin.  0.000025 degrees C.

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This is where Warbird, as the true scientist, reconsiders.   He withdraws his objections to the radical new theory since exciting new research methodoligy has convinced him his previous few years were an academic dead end.   In fact, he abruptly withdraws his poster exploring the affect of water evaporation from slime mold on mercury thermometer readings and devotes the rest of his career to better understanding the consequences of his lifestyle on his planet.  Exciting times are afoot, I eagerly await his next paper.   

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14 hours ago, random said:

Glad you are here Laker.  WarpedBird has been banging on about this shot for years, showing his ignorance.

Carry on I can't wait for him converse with you.  Gentleman to Gentleman.

giphy.gif

Still a dickhead I see! Didn't look at my NDBC link when I posted it years ago, probably still won't.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rsa.shtml

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9 minutes ago, Lark said:

This is where Warbird, as the true scientist, reconsiders.   He withdraws his objections to the radical new theory since exciting new research methodoligy has convinced him his previous few years were an academic dead end.   In fact, he abruptly withdraws his poster exploring the affect of water evaporation from slime mold on mercury thermometer readings and devotes the rest of his career to better understanding the consequences of his lifestyle on his planet.  Exciting times are afoot, I eagerly await his next paper.   

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rsa.shtml

 

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15 hours ago, Laker said:

This would not be "fleet based" as you say, but part of the instrumentation packages they deploy.  Every ship at some point has deployed and retrieved instruments.  One of the accurate and reliable instruments in general use is based on the same principle as the depth meter, usually in the same package, that can measure ripples on the surface of the water from hundreds of feet down.  Quartz is a very stable element, one part in 10*14.  We can measure frequency very accurately with digital counters.  A column of quartz is set to resonate at a set frequency, usually in the megahertz.  As the column is loaded, this frequency changes.  In depth meters, this is done by exposing one end of the column to ambient pressure.  In the thermometer, a stable material with a high coefficient of thermal expansion is used.  Usually amber.  The high thermal expansion material strains the low expansion material and causes a change in frequency. The result is a thermometer that is accurate to within at least one part in 10*6 and over the -20 to +40 C range that is being observed, 10*-5 degrees is entirely possible as an accuracy.  Of course you run into problems with the definition of temperature at such accuracy and of course there is the correction for pressure.  The thought of your $1M AUV running around with a thermometer accurate to only +/-1 C is disturbing at best.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rsa.shtml

 

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1 minute ago, warbird said:

Wave period is sensitive to one second plus or minus one second.   How can they possibly figure out Great Lakes waves if they are off by that much? I wouldn’t even bother checking the buoy data.   Except as I pointed out a while back and Raz’r explained in some detail, statistics are like magic (my words).   Uncertainty  from a field of data points is smaller than measurment precision.   See examples on pp 21and 22.  Even I can follow these, and statistics seems like magic to me.   As we tried to explain a while back, your argument is wrong even without Lakers professed knowledge of what sensors are being used.   

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25 minutes ago, Lark said:

Wave .   Except as I pointed out a while back and Raz’r explained in some detail, statistics are like magic (my words).   Uncertainty  from a field of data points is smaller than measurment precision.   See examples on pp 21and 22.  Even I can follow these, and statistics seems like magic to me.   .   

That is only valid if the measurement inaccuracies are random

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3 minutes ago, warbird said:

That is only valid if the measurement inaccuracies are random

Are they not?   

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53 minutes ago, Lark said:

Are they not?   

So.....you don't know. Thus you cannot presume.

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Warble should call NOAA and let them know their data is all wrong. Because I'm sure none of the thousands of people (scientist, engineers, technicians) working in the climate field over the past hundred years have ever thought about measurement accuracy. Why would they. It's a huge oversight and thank god WB was here to catch it. 

Thanks WB, you may have just saved us from saving the world.

dial-meat-thermometer-23-401-2.jpg

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Interesting that the surface temperature accuracies quoted are the same for different buoys.  You can go to web pages like Sea-Bird Scientific for the specs to the sort of temperature probes that would be used and they would state an accuracy of 25 micro Kelvin.  The values for the ADCP are reasonable, if on the conservative side.  The accuracy numbers for the waverider buoys may be OK because of the issues with mixing of air and water temperatures at the interface.  Perhaps they take the same approach with all the floating buoys.  They are measuring and stating they are measuring surface temperature, which is not really valid in the situations we are talking about.   

 

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On 12/22/2017 at 7:00 PM, Laker said:

Interesting that the surface temperature accuracies quoted are the same for different buoys.  You can go to web pages like Sea-Bird Scientific for the specs to the sort of temperature probes that would be used and they would state an accuracy of 25 micro Kelvin.  The values for the ADCP are reasonable, if on the conservative side.  The accuracy numbers for the waverider buoys may be OK because of the issues with mixing of air and water temperatures at the interface.  Perhaps they take the same approach with all the floating buoys.  They are measuring and stating they are measuring surface temperature, which is not really valid in the situations we are talking about.   

 

...yet, NOAA data is based on those platforms I listed....

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On December 20, 2017 at 6:09 AM, slug zitski said:

Extractive industries...minerals...oil.....will always need special treatment.

 

a company may prospect and develope a  potential resource at great expense , then find out that the resource is not economically extractable or that market prices have collapsed and the investment wasted. 

i have no problem with policies that help these industries. 

I'm not sure I follow. I own an oil and gas E&P company, and we do fine without subsidies. Our biggest problem is regulatory overreach and enforcement by bureaucrats who usually have no industry experience and usually very little industry specific knowledge.

our tax flow has always gone one way, me to the government. 

Your second paragraph is a pretty good description of dry hole risk. Yes, if we find an uneconomic resource, and the host government decides, for whatever reason, that it is in the national interest to develop the resource anyways, then there will have to be some sort of support.  I happen not to like those deals. I, and I think most oil guys, like my profit clean and simple. Find for X, develop for Y, produce for Z, sell for (X+Y+Z)x2. We've been pretty lucky at that. Of course, I only operate in the US.

As an aside, I don't post here often, but occasionally read these threads. You are quite a breath of fresh air in what is normally a grim, self-congratulatory groupthink. Thank you.

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I know little of the industry.  I do read that in my region there is a valuable offshore gas field .  The big oil companies are ready to work .  The issue is transporting the gas into the present gas distribution,   pipline network . Evidently the oil companies will not proceed unless they recieve government help..taypayers money , political support ....for onshore infrastructure .

i would imagine that you are the same...ports, transport links...

long term investments  that need government guarantees ,, political approval  .

as a taxpayer i view this as in the public interest 

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7 hours ago, warbird said:

...yet, NOAA data is based on those platforms I listed....

Interesting, isn't it.  You would think those darn scientists didn't know what they were doing.

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3 hours ago, Laker said:

Interesting, isn't it.  You would think those darn scientists know who is payng thier way...

 

FIFY

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10 minutes ago, warbird said:

FIFY

Those rich universities drowning out the poor fossil fuel companies with fake science?   

https://splinternews.com/how-fossil-fuel-money-made-climate-denial-the-word-of-g-1797466298

Conservative groups, funded by fossil fuel magnates, spend approximately one billion dollars every year interfering with public understanding of what is actually happening to our world. Most of that money—most of the fraction of it that can be tracked, anyway—goes to think tanks that produce policy papers and legislative proposals favorable to donors’ interests, super PACs that support politicians friendly to industry or oppose those who are not, or mercenary lobbyists and consultants, in some instances employing the same people who fought to suppress the science on smoking. In terms of impact, however, few investments can rival the return that the conservative donor class has gotten from the small cohort of evangelical theologians and scholars whose work has provided scriptural justifications for apocalyptic geopolitics and economic rapaciousness.

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18 minutes ago, warbird said:

FIFY

Sarcasm is such a hard thing to do with an email.  So much so that I must remember to stop trying to do it.  The Canadians, after their revolution with the Harper government, at least offer complete access to the raw data from such things as the Ocean Observatory.

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12 hours ago, Lark said:

Those rich universities drowning out the poor fossil fuel companies with fake science?   

https://splinternews.com/how-fossil-fuel-money-made-climate-denial-the-word-of-g-1797466298

Conservative groups, funded by fossil fuel magnates, spend approximately one billion dollars every year interfering with public understanding of what is actually happening to our world. Most of that money—most of the fraction of it that can be tracked, anyway—goes to think tanks that produce policy papers and legislative proposals favorable to donors’ interests, super PACs that support politicians friendly to industry or oppose those who are not, or mercenary lobbyists and consultants, in some instances employing the same people who fought to suppress the science on smoking. In terms of impact, however, few investments can rival the return that the conservative donor class has gotten from the small cohort of evangelical theologians and scholars whose work has provided scriptural justifications for apocalyptic geopolitics and economic rapaciousness.

Tin foil hat?

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5 hours ago, warbird said:

 

OK, let's assume the temperatures stay the same from now on. How much air will you have to put in your tires to offset the extra weight from the load being cold?

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On 12/20/2017 at 4:12 AM, random said:

You have led a sheltered life Dunc.  You have no fucking idea do you?

In the US

"(MISI) estimated the total historical federal subsidies for various energy sources over the years 1950–2010. The study found that oil, natural gas, and coal received $369 billion, $121 billion, and $104 billion (2010 dollars), respectively, or 70% of total energy subsidies over that period."

in Australia,

Australian coal, oil and gas companies receive $4b in subsidies: report

A new report finds exploration by coal and energy companies is subsidised by Australian taxpayers by as much as $US3.5 billion ($4 billion) every year in the form of direct spending and tax breaks.

Hmmm, they get 70% of the subsidies and produce 90% of the energy.

Sounds like they are getting screwed

energy_consumption_by_source_large.jpg

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Despite cold ending to 2017, it was the warmest year on record in Austin. And, don't be fooled by this brief cold spell--global warming is alive and well. Austin's 5 hottest years have ALL occurred since 2006. Austin's records date to 1890s.

3D4A7DC4-4D8A-4D2F-98D2-818E04B9D618.jpeg

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9 hours ago, Gouvernail said:

Despite cold ending to 2017, it was the warmest year on record in Austin. And, don't be fooled by this brief cold spell--global warming is alive and well. Austin's 5 hottest years have ALL occurred since 2006. Austin's records date to 1890s.

3D4A7DC4-4D8A-4D2F-98D2-818E04B9D618.jpeg

Have you considered plotting the growth in the population in the area to the temperatures?  It looks like your 72.0 to 72.1 is about a 0.13% increase.  In that same time frame, Austin added over 100K in population.  The suburban area expanded as well.

All those new folks have arrived and want air conditioned houses and pump the warm air inside out to where the thermometers are.

Move out to the less built up area of Elgin and the annual average is in the 60s.

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So @Saorsa is claiming, at least in the Austin area, warming is entirely driven by human activity. 

Perhaps it is true similar warming influence by every  city in the world could possibly be a factor in the general warming of the planet?? !!!

The globe is mighty large but there are billions of these humans each of whom is contributing a little.

What if all the carbon based fuels being burned by those billions are causing changes to the atmosphere?

What if fumes from that burning change how the  atmospheric blanket around the globe absorbs or radiates energy?? 

What if the equilibrium temperature is being altered? 

What if the globe is so big, the forces of change can be operating for hundreds of years before the changes become detectable?

What  if those forces of change are irreversible or take many centuries to “turn off.”?????

 

WOW!! Those thoughts are certainly upsetting. Let’s not think about it!!! 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Gouvernail said:

So @Saorsa is claiming, at least in the Austin area, warming is entirely driven by human activity. 

Perhaps it is true similar warming influence by every  city in the world could possibly be a factor in the general warming of the planet?? !!!

The globe is mighty large but there are billions of these humans each of whom is contributing a little.

What if all the carbon based fuels being burned by those billions are causing changes to the atmosphere?

What if fumes from that burning change how the  atmospheric blanket around the globe absorbs or radiates energy?? 

What if the equilibrium temperature is being altered? 

What if the globe is so big, the forces of change can be operating for hundreds of years before the changes become detectable?

What  if those forces of change are irreversible or take many centuries to “turn off.”?????

 

WOW!! Those thoughts are certainly upsetting. Let’s not think about it!!! 

 

 

Now, shitwit, where did I say entirely?

I've never said the world isn't getting warmer, just that none of the idiotic proposals to date will make one bit of difference.

After Greenies denied the idea for years even the EPA now recognizes urban heat islands.

As long as you keep making the island bigger, the temperature will increase.

You're the dunce that picked a rapidly growing urban center for your example.  There's a clue in that old saying

THINK GLOBAL ACT LOCAL.

 

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18 minutes ago, Gouvernail said:

So @Saorsa is claiming, at least in the Austin area, warming is entirely driven by human activity. 

Perhaps it is true similar warming influence by every  city in the world could possibly be a factor in the general warming of the planet?? !!!

The globe is mighty large but there are billions of these humans each of whom is contributing a little.

What if all the carbon based fuels being burned by those billions are causing changes to the atmosphere?

What if fumes from that burning change how the  atmospheric blanket around the globe absorbs or radiates energy?? 

What if the equilibrium temperature is being altered? 

What if the globe is so big, the forces of change can be operating for hundreds of years before the changes become detectable?

What  if those forces of change are irreversible or take many centuries to “turn off.”?????

 

WOW!! Those thoughts are certainly upsetting. Let’s not think about it!!! 

 

 

You could use that case to stop all economic activity whatsoever.

What if the sun god is displeased because we haven't sacrificed a virgin in a while?  Is it really worth the risk?

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Just now, jzk said:

You could use that case to stop all economic activity whatsoever.

What if the sun god is displeased because we haven't sacrificed a virgin in a while?  Is it really worth the risk?

The supply of virgins is being depleted by Islamic martyrs.

 

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10 hours ago, By the lee said:

 

10 hours ago, By the lee said:

Two good examples.  The first shows that if you stop polluting the earth will wipe its ass. 

The second the relationship between ocean O2 levels and nitrogen fertilizers which make feeding the world cheaper. 

Conservation is still the key

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9 hours ago, random said:

WTF they chopped off where I live!

It's been towed out of the environment.

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22 minutes ago, random said:

The front fell off.

The front is in the picture......

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31 minutes ago, warbird said:

The front is in the picture......

The sun rises in the west on your world?

Rotating_globe.gif

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14 hours ago, Ishmael said:

For one horrible moment I thought those were pictures of my eyeballs.

Colored floaters!

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On January 5, 2018 at 10:07 AM, Saorsa said:

The supply of virgins is being depleted by Islamic martyrs.

 

Now hold on just a second, Wilbur!  (If I may call you Wilbur.  Just pretend I'm Mr Ed, just for a leetle bit....)   The virgins that the Martyrs do whatever they do with are in heaven, right?  And that means everyone in heaven has expired? (How old are are these virgins?)  Or are they just on loan to heaven, but when they get back to earth they are they officially undeflowered?  Or is the deflowering retroactively withdrawn?  (eewww....)  Or maybe all the females who go to heaven become virgins?   Perhaps ozone is caused as a byproduct of any type of virgin churning?  I call this the Pence Multiphasic No Man Made Global Warming Virgin Churning Theory.  Or maybe the Martyrs, never having tasted alcohol, get really shit faced for the very first time,  and just think the 'virgins' are virgins?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Amati said:

Now hold on just a second, Wilbur!  (If I may call you Wilbur.  Just pretend I'm Mr Ed, just for a leetle bit....)   The virgins that the Martyrs do whatever they do with are in heaven, right?  And that means everyone in heaven has expired? (How old are are these virgins?)  Or are they just on loan to heaven, but when they get back to earth they are they officially undeflowered?  Or is the deflowering retroactively withdrawn?  (eewww....)  Or maybe all the females who go to heaven become virgins?   Perhaps ozone is caused as a byproduct of any type of virgin churning?  I call this the Pence Multiphasic No Man Made Global Warming Virgin Churning Theory.  Or maybe the Martyrs, never having tasted alcohol, get really shit faced for the very first time,  and just think the 'virgins' are virgins?

 

 

Just draw pretty faces on the Martyr's backs and you'll have an undulating line of happy drunks.

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3 hours ago, random said:

Globally, 2017 likely to be the second- or third-warmest year on record

The estimated global mean temperature for 2017 (January–November) was 0.77 ± 0.09 °C above the 1961–1990 average, and it is likely 2017 will be the second- or third-warmest year on record since 1850. The warmest two years currently are 2016 (+0.87 °C) and 2015 (+0.76 °C), records that were assisted by a strong El Niño. Conversely, the exceptional warmth of 2017 has occurred in the absence of El Niño.

Global temperatures have increased by just over one degree since the pre-industrial period, and all of the ten warmest years on record have occurred between 1998 and the present. No year since 1985 has observed a global mean temperature below the 1961–1990 average.

image.png.219edc90f8e5a40f3a489c2d2af82ec0.png

Adjustments to the raw data.

2cwn0ww.jpg

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On 1/5/2018 at 1:03 PM, Saorsa said:

Now, shitwit, where did I say entirely?

I've never said the world isn't getting warmer, just that none of the idiotic proposals to date will make one bit of difference.

After Greenies denied the idea for years even the EPA now recognizes urban heat islands.

As long as you keep making the island bigger, the temperature will increase.

You're the dunce that picked a rapidly growing urban center for your example.  There's a clue in that old saying

THINK GLOBAL ACT LOCAL.

 

Goodness I would like to see evidence of this denial. We certainly talked about urban heat islands as an undergrad geography student in the late 1960s. I do agree that saying that warmer temps in one city matters in this debate. In fact, the number of warmest years in Austin seems less than for the whole world.

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1 hour ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

Goodness I would like to see evidence of this denial. We certainly talked about urban heat islands as an undergrad geography student in the late 1960s. I do agree that saying that warmer temps in one city matters in this debate. In fact, the number of warmest years in Austin seems less than for the whole world.

Well, google' urban heat island myth' and look at the results from the early 21st century.

Here is one reference from Greenpeace.

 

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New developments in settled science...

"Princeton University researchers have found that the climate models scientists use to project future conditions on our planet underestimate the cooling effect that clouds have on a daily — and even hourly — basis, particularly over land".

https://environment.princeton.edu/news/spotty-coverage-climate-models-underestimate-cooling-effect-daily-cloud-cycle

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New developments in settled science continued...

It's often claimed that the current rate of warming is unprecedented and that it must therefore be anthropogenic. Further that widespread extinctions will result from this rate of warming. However a new study published in Nature using noble gas in ice cores as a proxy finds oceanic heat uptake about 12000 years ago exceeded today's rate of warming . No word yet on whether the authors will face criminal charges for publishing their findings.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25152

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3 hours ago, random said:

So please tell us how they 'found' something that has not happened yet?

Did the use a 'model'?

What are you mean, not happened yet? The cooling effect of clouds discussed in the article has been happening all along. It just hasn't been factored into the climate models which we know to be running hot. Think there might be a connection? 

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Just to chime in with one of my personal issues.

http://www.theenergycollective.com/edfenergyex/2419654/nasa-study-underscores-urgency-solving-global-methane-problem

"A growing number of leading global oil and gas companies including BP, Exxon and Shell have embraced methane reductions as a priority, while others have pledged to a near zero methane emissions future."

"Oil and gas methane is a significant global problem, but it is also a problem with a relatively simple solution. The International Energy Agency singled out methane as a central business issue for oil and gas companies, concluding that the industry can reduce its worldwide emissions by 75 percent – and that up to two thirds of those reductions can be realized at zero net cost. Further, IEA says that just the no net cost reductions would have the same climate impact in 2100 as immediately closing all the coal plants in China.

 

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On 12/22/2017 at 7:00 PM, Laker said:

Interesting that the surface temperature accuracies quoted are the same for different buoys.  You can go to web pages like Sea-Bird Scientific for the specs to the sort of temperature probes that would be used and they would state an accuracy of 25 micro Kelvin.  The values for the ADCP are reasonable, if on the conservative side.  The accuracy numbers for the waverider buoys may be OK because of the issues with mixing of air and water temperatures at the interface.  Perhaps they take the same approach with all the floating buoys.  They are measuring and stating they are measuring surface temperature, which is not really valid in the situations we are talking about.   

 

Not looking for a shit fight.  Honest question:

If the instruments are truly that good, (I have no reason to doubt the accuracy,) then why do the scientists "adjust" their findings?  I honestly do not have the time to get into it right now, but I always hear about actual data vs revised data.  I figure either you or Lark are the best here to answer that question.   Also, I like the idea of using thermal expansion as a sensor.  

I am a skeptic, not a "denier."  To me the science is not settled.  I draw that conclusion based on the repeated failed predictions of the same group people over and over again.  I guess I'm getting to old to buy any bucket of shit pushed in my face, from either side.  And yes there are sides.  Political solutions looking for a convenient problem. Get rid of the political money and I'd bet we would see a better more believable set of both data and predictions.  Unfortunately that is not going to happen.  At least not anytime soon.

BTW: Anyone who doubts the seriousness of at least some energy companies to improve efficiencies and power consumption does not have a freaking clue.  I have been working in a Southern Company owned lab for the past two months on a project that they are hoping to prove viable.  The project is a new type of HVAC system that is water sourced and geo-assisted. It will significantly reduce the size of the ground loop for geothermal heat pump systems.  The facility is great. 

I will check back, but for the next two weeks I will be very busy with the above project.  More programming tomorrow and then another battery of tests.  I don't manipulate the results of the tests.  Good data is good data.  Learn from it, adapt and build a better machine.

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41 minutes ago, plchacker said:

Not looking for a shit fight.  Honest question:

If the instruments are truly that good, (I have no reason to doubt the accuracy,) then why do the scientists "adjust" their findings?  I honestly do not have the time to get into it right now, but I always hear about actual data vs revised data.  I figure either you or Lark are the best here to answer that question.   Also, I like the idea of using thermal expansion as a sensor.  

I am a skeptic, not a "denier."  To me the science is not settled.  I draw that conclusion based on the repeated failed predictions of the same group people over and over again.  I guess I'm getting to old to buy any bucket of shit pushed in my face, from either side.  And yes there are sides.  Political solutions looking for a convenient problem. Get rid of the political money and I'd bet we would see a better more believable set of both data and predictions.  Unfortunately that is not going to happen.  At least not anytime soon.

BTW: Anyone who doubts the seriousness of at least some energy companies to improve efficiencies and power consumption does not have a freaking clue.  I have been working in a Southern Company owned lab for the past two months on a project that they are hoping to prove viable.  The project is a new type of HVAC system that is water sourced and geo-assisted. It will significantly reduce the size of the ground loop for geothermal heat pump systems.  The facility is great. 

I will check back, but for the next two weeks I will be very busy with the above project.  More programming tomorrow and then another battery of tests.  I don't manipulate the results of the tests.  Good data is good data.  Learn from it, adapt and build a better machine.

 

There's a lot of reasons actually.  The first is obvious - calibration.  Sensors are almost always designed to measure in regards to something else and truly steady reference conditions are always challenging, particularly when something is exposed to the environment over time (yea, sailors know that one!).  The smaller the change, the bigger issues become with reference conditions.  Imagine your typical bathroom scale.  It measures your weight by measuring the displacement in a spring, measured by either a strain gauge (measures deflection essentially) or an LVDT (linear displacement device).  But there's a lot of underlying assumptions - what's the spring constant of the material?  Are the gauges properly attached?  Is the LVDT secure?  Is your bathroom freaking cold or stupid hot or has someone put something super heavy on the scale and bent something?  Now imagine that instead of measuring your weight, I'm going to measure the weight of say, a fruit fly.  Everything has to be made MUCH more sensitive and now, even things like air currents are going to impact the measurement.  There's a whole host of analytical techniques used to verify data over time and that's what most of the 'corrections' are there to assess and compensate.

Here's an example from a totally unrelated field - long range rifle shooting (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jX7dcl_ERNs).  It details how the Coriolis effects - yes, the rotation of the earth - creates a measurable change in bullet accuracy at 1000 yards depending if you're shooting due east or due west.  If you want to measure accurately, you may have to account for such things, depending on what you're trying to measure.

So 'adjusted' in the positive context means that the researchers have collected the data, analyzed it against references, checked it for internal consistency, and presented their best understanding of what the data represents.  The better researchers will detail the raw data, the corrections made, and the final results.  In fact, a lot of Dept. of Energy contracts now REQUIRE the raw data be preserved for analysis later.

The biggest single problem with climate science is a lack of experimental replication and reflection as a means of removing interference.  Here's a few basic concepts from Design of Experiments.  Say you have three variables, A, B, and C, and you want to know what their values are.  To completely define them, you actually need to run 8 experiments - called a 'full factorial' test.  You need A, B, C, and then the interactions AB, AC, BC, and then ABC, plus at least one for comparison to give some sense of the spread of the data.  AB, AC, BC, and ABC are cases of where your coefficients are interrelated, which you may or many not know in advance.  Now imagine that you have 5 variables.  You can learn something about those 5 variables by running 8 tests also - called a partial factorial or sometimes a "Plackett-Burman analysis'  - but you give up some information.  For example, you may have an interaction between A and C but wouldn't be able to tell because experimentally it would be superimposed by some other interaction.  If the interactions are within the noise range of the data you might not care but what if it's not?  The way you gain such knowledge is through 'replication' and 'reflection'.  Replication just means you run the test over and this tells you if the values you are calculating are statistically significant or if they are within the normal spread of the data.  Reflection basically means you run the opposite set of conditions.  This essentially makes interactions cancel out and tells you if you have interactions or not.  By the way, this all assumes linear functions.  If you don't have linear functions, then you need to run intermediate points to determine curvature.

There are some advanced mathematics to deconvolve data sets which are also sometimes employed but that's a science in and of itself.

Now you're a climate scientist.  How many variables do you want to look at per experiment?  How many conditions?  And can you actually set up a 'negative' test to determine interactions?  There's only one earth.  And you're measuring very small changes, often over large areas.  That's why freak events - like the grounding of all planes during 9/11, actually are statistically really important to climate researchers.  They actually get a chance to test a condition that is outside the normal range of experience.

Hope that helps explain what they're doing.  These techniques have been around for a while and frankly, virtually everything you interact with day to day was developed using these concepts.  They work.  It's not the math.  The challenge is sensitivity required and the lack of control over experimental conditions.

If you wanna talk about the modeling side of this sometime, let me know :)

 

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I'll actually give you a real life example that sort of points on the problem with any of this kind of analysis.

About 27 years ago, I was looking at a trade journal for 'starting salaries' for BS, MS, and Ph.D. engineers.  It turned out that "BS' chemical engineers were actually getting paid, on average, more than "MS' chemical engineers.  In fact, BS chemical engineers were getting paid more than MOST MS engineers and every BS engineering field by way more that particular year than they had ever gotten before.

Being an engineering journal, they listed the reason why.. the CEO of Exxon got his BS Chem E. that year and his compensation was north of 33 million dollars.

So what do you do?  It's data.  Real and accurately measured.  On average, BS Chem E's did great.  But in particular, they all did about what they had been doing the year before.

Do you change your data representation because of ONE data point that you CLEARLY know is an outlier?   That's biasing data!  Do you do a bunch of analysis that tells you the obvious - it's an outlier - and use that to justify your omission?  Do you accept the data and present it with a description as to why it's weird (what they did) and risk people just ignoring it and reporting the table without the clarification?  Do you change your representation to a median instead of a mean to account for such outliers thereby losing integrity with all of your earlier reported data sets?

One hopes that people doing such analysis are being honest and fair and trying to get to truth.  There are examples where people have cooked the books.  But are there enough book cookers to actually change the fundamental conclusions or is it just a CEO from Exxon who's impact will go away as his single result is diluted over time?

Good luck on the HVAC system.  There's analysis out there that shows that leaking ACs from cheep window units that  will be installed in india and SE Asia over the next 20 years will release more damaging GHG than all the CO2 released up to this point.  I truly believe that efficient, effective climate control - non- HCF based - is the single most important technical achievement of the next 50 years if we're going to reduce the impact of climate change.

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35 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

 

There's a lot of reasons actually.  The first is obvious - calibration.  Sensors are almost always designed to measure in regards to something else and truly steady reference conditions are always challenging, particularly when something is exposed to the environment over time (yea, sailors know that one!).

This. I had some involvement in data analysis for Australia's ocean monitoring program. Instruments come with a calibration sheet and often an algorithm.

You take the raw values, plug the calibration coefficients into the algorithm and out pops the magic number in SI units - hopefully.

Now take an instrument that has been in the water for 12 months and you send it off to be re-calibrated. The numbers are different. Which set do you use, those for when it went into the water or those for after it came out? And where do you document this & other choices?

When I designed one of our databases I kept *all* the metadata. We stored the raw data file off of the instrument, the calibration coefficients and the Java code used to calculate the engineering unit numbers - this last being what got made publicly available. This way if anyone challenged the data we could tell them the whole story and they could re-check it all for themselves. There was no 'secret squirrel' business by design. We had nothing to hide and if a mistake was found, we could re-calculate from original sources.

FKT

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Certainly an even more difficult  data set to quantify is the total adjustment to the public perception of the gathered data accomplished by the investments of those who have paid skilled professionals to adjust that perception. 

It is my hypothesis a person who wishes to contribute to the welfare of the world’s population can and will have much more useful skills if he /she studies public relations, political science, statistics, and learns to excel in  thesbianism. 

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12 hours ago, cmilliken said:

 

There's a lot of reasons actually.  The first is obvious - calibration.  Sensors are almost always designed to measure in regards to something else and truly steady reference conditions are always challenging, particularly when something is exposed to the environment over time (yea, sailors know that one!).  The smaller the change, the bigger issues become with reference conditions.  Imagine your typical bathroom scale.  It measures your weight by measuring the displacement in a spring, measured by either a strain gauge (measures deflection essentially) or an LVDT (linear displacement device).  But there's a lot of underlying assumptions - what's the spring constant of the material?  Are the gauges properly attached?  Is the LVDT secure?  Is your bathroom freaking cold or stupid hot or has someone put something super heavy on the scale and bent something?  Now imagine that instead of measuring your weight, I'm going to measure the weight of say, a fruit fly.  Everything has to be made MUCH more sensitive and now, even things like air currents are going to impact the measurement.  There's a whole host of analytical techniques used to verify data over time and that's what most of the 'corrections' are there to assess and compensate.

Here's an example from a totally unrelated field - long range rifle shooting (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jX7dcl_ERNs).  It details how the Coriolis effects - yes, the rotation of the earth - creates a measurable change in bullet accuracy at 1000 yards depending if you're shooting due east or due west.  If you want to measure accurately, you may have to account for such things, depending on what you're trying to measure.

So 'adjusted' in the positive context means that the researchers have collected the data, analyzed it against references, checked it for internal consistency, and presented their best understanding of what the data represents.  The better researchers will detail the raw data, the corrections made, and the final results.  In fact, a lot of Dept. of Energy contracts now REQUIRE the raw data be preserved for analysis later.

The biggest single problem with climate science is a lack of experimental replication and reflection as a means of removing interference.  Here's a few basic concepts from Design of Experiments.  Say you have three variables, A, B, and C, and you want to know what their values are.  To completely define them, you actually need to run 8 experiments - called a 'full factorial' test.  You need A, B, C, and then the interactions AB, AC, BC, and then ABC, plus at least one for comparison to give some sense of the spread of the data.  AB, AC, BC, and ABC are cases of where your coefficients are interrelated, which you may or many not know in advance.  Now imagine that you have 5 variables.  You can learn something about those 5 variables by running 8 tests also - called a partial factorial or sometimes a "Plackett-Burman analysis'  - but you give up some information.  For example, you may have an interaction between A and C but wouldn't be able to tell because experimentally it would be superimposed by some other interaction.  If the interactions are within the noise range of the data you might not care but what if it's not?  The way you gain such knowledge is through 'replication' and 'reflection'.  Replication just means you run the test over and this tells you if the values you are calculating are statistically significant or if they are within the normal spread of the data.  Reflection basically means you run the opposite set of conditions.  This essentially makes interactions cancel out and tells you if you have interactions or not.  By the way, this all assumes linear functions.  If you don't have linear functions, then you need to run intermediate points to determine curvature.

There are some advanced mathematics to deconvolve data sets which are also sometimes employed but that's a science in and of itself.

Now you're a climate scientist.  How many variables do you want to look at per experiment?  How many conditions?  And can you actually set up a 'negative' test to determine interactions?  There's only one earth.  And you're measuring very small changes, often over large areas.  That's why freak events - like the grounding of all planes during 9/11, actually are statistically really important to climate researchers.  They actually get a chance to test a condition that is outside the normal range of experience.

Hope that helps explain what they're doing.  These techniques have been around for a while and frankly, virtually everything you interact with day to day was developed using these concepts.  They work.  It's not the math.  The challenge is sensitivity required and the lack of control over experimental conditions.

If you wanna talk about the modeling side of this sometime, let me know :)

 

Thanks, that nicely explains the scientific need for the "adjustments" but I don't think it explains what they are doing.

Adjustment based on the considerations you describe would be dispersed either side of the raw data and that pattern of adjustment would remain constant over time.  In the case of global temperature 1940 and earlier data were overwhelmingly adjusted to the down side. From 1940 to about 1975 the adjustments to the raw were, as we should expect, equally dispersed either side of the raw data. From 1975 to the present the adjustments were virtually exclusively to the up side. The effect of course is a steeper warming trend line in the adjusted data than in the raw data.

I doubt you or anyone here can provide a scientific explanation for this pattern of adjustment. The explanation is political.

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