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    • UnderDawg

      A Few Simple Rules   05/22/2017

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barfy

Weather Conditions for the Match

258 posts in this topic

looks like a fairly consistent spell of easterlies for the first few days...might make for some interesting tracks. Have we had races with the wind set up at 90 degree yet?

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so good breeze for the first day, then maybe light airs second day? Would be good to see both teams go at it top end for the first meeting.

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Saturday very close to getting cancelled.

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17 minutes ago, Alinghi4ever said:

Saturday very close to getting cancelled.

Numb nuts is back!!

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this was posted elsewhere...BDA weather service marine

as i mentioned before I wonder what kind of track they will run in an easterly. BDA is a nice place to race in a SW'erly.

Saturday - 

  Winds east-northeasterly 5 to 10 knots, increasing 8 to 12 knots in the evening...  Building northeasterly swells... Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft... Outside the reef 3 to 5 ft...  Sunrise: 6:11 am; Sunset: 8:28 pm.

Sunday - 

  Winds east-northeasterly 8 to 12 knots...  Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft... Outside the reef 3 to 5 ft...  Sunrise: 6:12 am; Sunset: 8:28 pm.

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A4E, I do find it amusing that you're now supporting the very team that put Alinghi into semi retirement when it comes to the AC...actually based on your fucked up posts over the past 2 months perhaps it makes perfect sense!!

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Mate, at least we have a chance to win, which is more than you can say for your fucked up Alinghi!

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^Thanks for not quoting the troll...really the idiot is on a roll smearing worthless shit replies everywhere on here.

 

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3 minutes ago, **ONTOIT** said:

A4E, I do find it amusing that you're now supporting the very team that put Alinghi into semi retirement when it comes to the AC...actually based on your fucked up posts over the past 2 months perhaps it makes perfect sense!!

This is all about Kiwis not winning. This Battle between OTUSA & ETNZ is WAR for me and I will be the first one to open fire at you & other Kiwi Clowns.

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2 minutes ago, **ONTOIT** said:

Mate, at least we have a chance to win, which is more than you can say for your fucked up Alinghi!

We won a lot too just not in the AC. Alinghi has dominated the Extreme Race Series over the last few years. Either they won it outright or they placed into the Top 3.

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^ fire away cock sucker, the longer OR have the cup the less likely it is your sweetheart EB and Alinghi will ever return to the AC, but hey you've never made any sense before so why start now??!!

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3 minutes ago, **ONTOIT** said:

^ fire away cock sucker, the longer OR have the cup the less likely it is your sweetheart EB and Alinghi will ever return to the AC, but hey you've never made any sense before so why start now??!!

I don't really care about Alinghi anymore. I more care about getting a German Team back to the Start Line. With the Cup in Auckland chances are 0%, with the Cup staying with OTUSA chances 70%.

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gee, i thought the Germans would have been one of the 15 teams willing to take on Orifice on their terms this time around. 

Muppet

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^ and the chances that a German team gets fucked over by the power house of TF if they do enter = 100%

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1 minute ago, **ONTOIT** said:

^ and the chances that a German team gets fucked over by the power house of TF if they do enter = 100%

Team France won't be in the Cup if it's in Auckland.

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^ and neither will Team Germany so you won't need to worry about it.

appologize to Barfy for hijacking his thread!!

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Holy Crap ... let's stick with posts about the weather for the match in a thread called Weather Conditions for the Match

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55 minutes ago, Alinghi4ever said:

We won a lot too just not in the AC. Alinghi has dominated the Extreme Race Series over the last few years. Either they won it outright or they placed into the Top 3.

 

49 minutes ago, Alinghi4ever said:

I don't really care about Alinghi anymore. I more care about getting a German Team back to the Start Line. With the Cup in Auckland chances are 0%, with the Cup staying with OTUSA chances 70%.

God almighty, make your bloody mind up. 1 minute defending Alinghi, next you don't care about them.

 

57 minutes ago, Alinghi4ever said:

This is all about Kiwis not winning. This Battle between OTUSA & ETNZ is WAR for me and I will be the first one to open fire at you & other Kiwi Clowns.

So now we know, you better have some heavy ammunition as there are a lot of "Kiwi Clowns" on this site, me included.

If you do mount a challenge what are you going to call your boat, Tirpitz or Bismarck? 

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OK, back to weather. 

Saturday looks light and out of the east, possibly just north of east. 

Which raises the question: Can they run the races such that the windward mark is on the NORTH side of the island?

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Back on topic, I don't really mind if racing doesn't happen on Saturday as it clashes with Le Mans 24 hours. That and the AC being 2 of my favourite 3 sporting events.

Wengen downhill is the 3rd BTW.

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Races look questionable for Saturday and Sunday according to wind guru.  I'm betting OR shitting a brick if the races go off in 6 to 9 knots...

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Let's see how hard IM tries to get a race off if it's averaging only just above the lower limit - I hope there's no funny business with his daily windspeed calibrations.

Do the teams' boats also monitor the wind independently to get a 'second opinion' on how IM's instruments are calling the puffs, lulls and rolling averages? 

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I actually like it that the forecast is currently under the lower limit - that suggests that if the breeze comes up enough to get into the 'legal' range, it'll likely only barely get above that limit. - sweet spot!!

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70ish hours to go, but if I was there I'd be ordering factor 30, not oil skins.

and a banana daiquiri.

 

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If this stays marginal for the weekend, it could all get very interesting for IM. 

Must be all sorts of pressure going on there.

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1 hour ago, Barnacle Bill said:

Harder to pick than a broken nose. 

 

Screenshot_20170615-070224.jpg

Give it another 24 hours and it will be blowing 11knots, why did they pick Bermuda again??

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Yeah, I'm seeing light, light, light for both days.

 

 

Screen Shot 2017-06-14 at 5.20.12 PM.png

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Will they try to get races off on Monday and Tuesday, still with a max of 2 races per day, if the weekend is glassy?

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Just now, ~Stingray~ said:

Will they try to get races off on Monday and Tuesday, still with a max of 2 races per day, if the weekend is glassy?

So I wonder how they are thinking about this when it comes to the village and tv optics. The deal on the tickets is that if they open the village, there is no refund or rain-check on the ticket. But they will not have sold any for monday/tuesday when the village is scheduled to be closed. And I am sure they do not want the optics of running the thing with empty grandstands. 

So, do they make the call the night before and tell everyone that their ticket is good another day?

Do they open the village and pray, and then if racing is canceled both days do they offer rain-checks for ticket holders for mon/tues?

Do they run four races a day the following weekend?

Gawd, they must either have a plan in place or be panicking right about now. Or both. Certainly they were not expecting this long a stretch of wind this low when they picked Bermuda. 

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"Do they open the village and pray, and then if racing is canceled both days do they offer rain-checks for ticket holders for mon/tues?"

They did that recently iirc. Refunds, and first in line prioririty for any tix still unsold, something like that. Since Monday-Friday would not yet have tics sold they should be fine.

I hope broadcasters like NBC (USA) would still broadcast racing outside of the weekend, guess we'll see.

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Stinger, help me out.  I seem to recall a poster, possibly to the Bermuda  thread, telling us this sort of weather is typical of Bermuda in  mid to late June.  The post came hours after GGYC let us know Bermuda had prevailed in the sweepstakes of venues for AC35.   The poster seemed flabbergasted anyone in charge of planning for AC35 would overlook the strong probability wind patterns would continue as usual during the very period AC35 is scheduled to be sailed.  Do you recall this or some similar caution?  

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22 minutes ago, scassani said:

Stinger, help me out.  I seem to recall a poster, possibly to the Bermuda  thread, telling us this sort of weather is typical of Bermuda in  mid to late June.  The post came hours after GGYC let us know Bermuda had prevailed in the sweepstakes of venues for AC35.   The poster seemed flabbergasted anyone in charge of planning for AC35 would overlook the strong probability wind patterns would continue as usual during the very period AC35 is scheduled to be sailed.  Do you recall this or some similar caution?  

Yes, a lot of posters here, myself included,  expressed concern.

Syndicates have been forced to face a highly variable set of conditions, very unlike for the lead-up to on the far more predictable SF Bay. 

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May the Death of the Reign of Terror forced against All that the America's Cup stood for

Be Blamed on the conditions BECAUSE it was Not Contested in Frisco !

GO Team New Zealand & Take the Cup Home with You !!!!!!!!!

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11 hours ago, **ONTOIT** said:

Numb nuts is back!!

No Nuts! You mean No Nuts!

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Both Boats are optimized for these light wind conditions I would suspect. OTUSA is now in Bermuda for almost 3 years so they would have a pretty good read at the conditions this time of the year. They have no excuses not being fast in that kind of stuff. We know ETNZ is fast in those conditions.

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We know the kiwis are great in light wind, But yes, oracle will have planned for these conditions also.

I have said it all along, This is going to be a tough competition. Both are very very good teams.

 

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Does anyone get the feeling this is all playing into Oracle's plan. They would have known June was going to be light, heck when I lived their we were loving the flat calm off Morgan's (old float plane base) for watersking with the jelly fish.

Just get the feeling ENTZ think they own the light.....are you so sure..

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did oracle go out today practicing in the light wind?

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12 minutes ago, starrchallenge said:

Does anyone get the feeling this is all playing into Oracle's plan. They would have known June was going to be light, heck when I lived their we were loving the flat calm off Morgan's (old float plane base) for watersking with the jelly fish.

Just get the feeling ENTZ think they own the light.....are you so sure..

Perhaps a number of ETNZ fans think they own the light, ETNZ aren't that stupid.

Even if they think they are superior in the light wind, they won't make the same mistake as last time and stop the development cycle until the last race is run.

Clearly the two teams have taking wildly divergent approaches and for that reason I expect that one team will be substantially faster in the light wind than the other.

Of course I am hoping it is ETNZ, but we will see.

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yea, i think NZ ran out of development and Oracle did not last time

NZ seem to be keeping a few things hidden till the last minute. Cyclors were not revealed until the latest they could .Unlike foiling last time

 

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3 minutes ago, **ONTOIT** said:

https://www.windguru.cz/32728

wind now back to 7 knots for Saturday and slightly higher 8-9 knots for Sunday....

With a 10 knot margin of error !!

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1 minute ago, DA-WOODY said:

With a 10 knot margin of error !!

At least...especially if OR are playing around with the forecasts!!

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Everyone new that in this period it is light and considering OR was always going to be racing in the final they will have designed their boat for max performance in those conditions. Let's not kid ourselves that NZ will be better in the light - yes maybe against the other challengers but NZ was fastest overall as confirmed by the race results.

If its too light it becomes a lottery as we started seeing in the abandoned race and no one wants that. That doesn't make it make for a fair and satisfying race.

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Saturday - 

  Winds east-northeasterly 5 to 10 knots...  Southeasterly swells... Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft... Outside the reef 3 to 5 ft...  Sunrise: 6:11 am; Sunset: 8:28 pm.

Sunday - 

  Winds east-northeasterly 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable later...  Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft... Outside the reef 3 to 5 ft...  Sunrise: 6:12 am; Sunset: 8:28 pm.

Issued at 11:30 pm - Wednesday, June 14, 2017

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17 hours ago, Barnacle Bill said:

Harder to pick than a broken nose. 

 

Screenshot_20170615-070224.jpg

what a difference a day makes...i have noticed that the windguru seabreeze forecast steps up as we get closer.

 

Windguru1.jpg

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On 6/15/2017 at 0:07 AM, **ONTOIT** said:

^ and neither will Team Germany so you won't need to worry about it.

appologize to Barfy for hijacking his thread!!

always time for an A4E smackdown

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11 hours ago, jaysper said:

Perhaps a number of ETNZ fans think they own the light, ETNZ aren't that stupid.

Even if they think they are superior in the light wind, they won't make the same mistake as last time and stop the development cycle until the last race is run.

Clearly the two teams have taking wildly divergent approaches and for that reason I expect that one team will be substantially faster in the light wind than the other.

Of course I am hoping it is ETNZ, but we will see.

You're actually making a pretty good case why the racing will be very close even in light winds. While the Wing and most of the boat are OD the foils, control systems are not. Both Teams did totally different approaches just like AC 34 and yet we got a pretty even boat Race.

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1 hour ago, barfy said:

what a difference a day makes...i have noticed that the windguru seabreeze forecast steps up as we get closer.

 

Windguru1.jpg

Not surprised at that, as the saying goes 'The only constant, is change' and it always applies to forecasts.

 

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Now (0600 Thursday run) GFS is saying 6-9 both days but the Navy model is now saying that Saturday is 1-2 !!! That's one to two knots! yikes. 

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whats the weather/breeze forecast for SF or Newport RI for this weekend?

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On 6/14/2017 at 9:00 AM, laser 173312 said:

Back on topic, I don't really mind if racing doesn't happen on Saturday as it clashes with Le Mans 24 hours. That and the AC being 2 of my favourite 3 sporting events.

Wengen downhill is the 3rd BTW.

+1000!!

 

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45 minutes ago, Loose Cannon said:

+1000!!

 

I'm having a Viewing Party / BBQ / Open Bar come race or not

watching NBCSN on DIRECT-TV-NOW has only built in commercials so you skip most all and watch till the end

GO TEAM NEW ZEALAND !!!  

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It's looking good. The anticipation is causing some distraction. My wife asked me what the weather's like this weekend. I quoted BDA. She meant where we were which is thousands of miles away. 

Here's the latest. Mmmm good. 

 

Screenshot_20170616-063604.jpg

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9 hours ago, laser 173312 said:

Not surprised at that, as the saying goes 'The only constant, is change' and it always applies to forecasts.

 

yup, and I'm a watcher cause the rate of change and direction of trend always says something about model confidence, which no model shows you :)

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It is a bit of a given ETNZ have a light air machine.

I find it hard to believe that Oracle will not also have a light air weapon.

 

They have been there the longest, and have know for 3 years that they will be sailing at this time. They are not silly - they will have built a package for the light airs.

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Just now, trig42 said:

It is a bit of a given ETNZ have a light air machine.

I find it hard to believe that Oracle will not also have a light air weapon.

 

They have been there the longest, and have know for 3 years that they will be sailing at this time. They are not silly - they will have built a package for the light airs.

Sure but with out the cycle and bat power they are scratching their heads trying to find extra speed

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Just now, AC NZL said:

Sure but with out the cycle and bat power they are scratching their heads trying to find extra speed

I hope so.

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4 minutes ago, trig42 said:

It is a bit of a given ETNZ have a light air machine.

I find it hard to believe that Oracle will not also have a light air weapon.

 

They have been there the longest, and have know for 3 years that they will be sailing at this time. They are not silly - they will have built a package for the light airs.

I agree - odds are that OR will be as fast or faster than us in the light given their resources and time etc.  But it is possible OR might have, until ETNZ showed their speed in the light, thought that they were as quick as they could go and are playing catch up.  We shall see...

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1 hour ago, trig42 said:

I hope so.

me too, I was waking at 1.30am during the LVC in hot sweats of nervous anticipation! Fuck knows how I will survive the finals...

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2 minutes ago, Daggerboard said:

me too, I was waking at 1.30am during the LVC in hot sweats of nervous anticipation! Fuck knows how I will survive the finals...

Ha, ha. Woke at around 3:00am this morning having been "incensed" to learn that OTUSA figured out Blaire's tablet transmitter frequency and used an electronic device to block the signal, so his foils could not be adjusted! 

ETNZ went into a spectacular splashdown and just went dead in the water as OTUSA streaked by.

How's that for paranoia? 

 

 

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that's up there, certainly every time the boys tacked/gybed and rode up high on the foils in the LVC, I wondered if the winglets had broke off, or other sundry disaster. Having watched this stuff  intently since Australia II days, I can not re-call being so wound up. Must be Spitall effect...

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Breeze is up a bit in the latest forecasts.

 

Screen Shot 2017-06-15 at 11.11.58 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-06-15 at 11.13.11 PM.png

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6 minutes ago, R15 said:

Breeze is up a bit in the latest forecasts.

 

Screen Shot 2017-06-15 at 11.11.58 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-06-15 at 11.13.11 PM.png

Where's this from and for which position in Bermuda?

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Saturday - 

  Winds easterly 8 to 12 knots...  Northeasterly swells... Seas inside the reef near 1 ft... Outside the reef 3 to 4 ft, increasing during the evening inside the reef 1 to 2 ft... Outside the reef 3 to 5 ft...  Sunrise: 6:11 am; Sunset: 8:28 pm.

Sunday - 

  Winds easterly 8 to 12 knots...  Seas inside the reef near 1 ft... Outside the reef 2 to 4 ft, decreasing...  Sunrise: 6:12 am; Sunset: 8:28 pm.

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Still looking like it's going to be light...yummy.

 

IMG_4453.PNG

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10 hours ago, trig42 said:

It is a bit of a given ETNZ have a light air machine.

I find it hard to believe that Oracle will not also have a light air weapon.

 

They have been there the longest, and have know for 3 years that they will be sailing at this time. They are not silly - they will have built a package for the light airs.

I guess the question is what concessions are made to optimise for light conditions, does this then have an impact in other conditions.  I know Slingsby? stated Oracle were optimised for 12 - 14 knots, ETNZ are clearly optimised somewhat lower than that.

Given neither of them know exactly what the weather will be and certainly didn't know months ago when these decisions were made it's quite conceivable they came to different conclusions as to what was the best choice and it might be dificult at this late date to change those decisions.

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On 6/15/2017 at 1:14 PM, starrchallenge said:

Does anyone get the feeling this is all playing into Oracle's plan. They would have known June was going to be light, heck when I lived their we were loving the flat calm off Morgan's (old float plane base) for watersking with the jelly fish.

Just get the feeling ENTZ think they own the light.....are you so sure..

But why didn't AR and BAR and TJ plan to optimise their set ups for light air as well? Yes it seems straight forward, but perhaps, just perhaps the kiwis did a better job??

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Is it possible that the teams resident in BDA for so long, frolicking together on the Great Sound, spent too much time benchmarking each other and being comfortable in their relative performances. Teams that came late to BDA bought some different performances to consider. LBAR wasn't a worry, but maybe ETNZ has shaken things up a bit?

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I think that is a fair comment, and really adds to the intrigue. I think what was clear to me during the Artemis race was the variations of speed upwind, reach, downwind depending on configuration. I think this is not going to be a 100% faster on all but who does better on what they are good at, my gut is fastest most controlled boat upwind will have huge advantage. (ENTZ) were that against ART. But we will just have to wait and see. This should be close.

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Wind speed forecasts look fine, but direction is a problem. Has the committee run an E-W course yet? Where do they put it?

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was there ever a downwind pass in any of the RR or LV races?

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Just now, 2Newts said:

Wind speed forecasts look fine, but direction is a problem. Has the committee run an E-W course yet? Where do they put it?

I was asking this question a week ago and no-one had an answer, or bothered to think about it

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looks like a no practice day tomorrow with FA wind...good. rest day for all and 

Bring It ON!!

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3 minutes ago, barfy said:

I was asking this question a week ago and no-one had an answer, or bothered to think about it

Maybe put the windward mark about 1/2 mile due south of Green Bay on Spanish Point, and then have a really long reach to the finish line??

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and strangely enough, the long range is for SE as far as the eye can see. haven't looked up any long range upper levels to see what up, but looks quite settled. Hope to have a bit of time tomorrow night weather gazing to stave off the nerves.

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1 minute ago, 2Newts said:

Maybe put the windward mark about 1/2 mile due south of Green Bay on Spanish Point, and then have a really long reach to the finish line??

where's the start box gonna fit in?

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Just now, barfy said:

where's the start box gonna fit in?

Near Pearl Island??

 

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Windguru's forecast is slightly lower than before: https://www.windguru.cz/32728

Since Sat and Sun seem to be an odd blimp showing more breeze than the following couple of days, I'm thinking that Monday's lighter forecast (as of today) might creep into Sunday's. Seems like Saturday will at least be OK (and nice and light!)

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LE  software controls weather forecasts @ his whim.....

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It's quite funny. Kiwi Fan Boys talking more about Weather Conditions than sailing. They seem more concerned about the wind than getting their boat around the Race Track, lol.

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6 minutes ago, Alinghi4ever said:

It's quite funny. Kiwi Fan Boys talking more about Weather Conditions than sailing. They seem more concerned about the wind than getting their boat around the Race Track, lol.

it is on topic because it is a weather thread...

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16 minutes ago, Alinghi4ever said:

It's quite funny. Kiwi Fan Boys talking more about Weather Conditions than sailing. They seem more concerned about the wind than getting their boat around the Race Track, lol.

It's funny someone who has been washing around the America's Cup boards forever doesn't seem to understand the importance of the weather in a sail boat race...

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1 hour ago, Boybland said:

It's funny someone who has been washing around the America's Cup boards forever doesn't seem to understand the importance of the weather in a sail boat race...

I lived in Germany for a long time and considering they have about 2 kilometres of coast line their sailing perigee plus their general personality qualities are questionable 

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2 hours ago, Alinghi4ever said:

It's quite funny. Kiwi Fan Boys talking more about Weather Conditions than sailing. They seem more concerned about the wind than getting their boat around the Race Track, lol.

My fucking ignore button still doesn't work...

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2 hours ago, starlyte said:

it is on topic because it is a weather thread...

Haha burn...

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Gonna be light though.  For both teams!

Screen Shot 2017-06-16 at 6.54.36 PM.png

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I wonder if the Kiwis have even sailed in an easterly yet?  I can't remember any of the LVC being raced in those conditions so it could be an advantage to Oracle despite the overall lightness.

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1 hour ago, Hitchhiker said:

Gonna be light though.  For both teams!

Screen Shot 2017-06-16 at 6.54.36 PM.png

Faark!  Multiple short legs p'raps.

Another nod to F1 style competition.  Is there any Protocol restriction on the number of laps?

If this eventuated it should put an even bigger premium on mark rounding and crew work.

 

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16 minutes ago, Deer with no eyes said:

 

Sweet. Batwing whompers at the ready.

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yup, big deal right at the crossover. i'm picking ETNZ to run the AP foils both days.

i did start a crossover thread,but this seems to be be a good place to discuss and i can't be fucked to post twice

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