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    • UnderDawg

      A Few Simple Rules   05/22/2017

      Sailing Anarchy is a very lightly moderated site. This is by design, to afford a more free atmosphere for discussion. There are plenty of sailing forums you can go to where swearing isn't allowed, confrontation is squelched and, and you can have a moderator finger-wag at you for your attitude. SA tries to avoid that and allow for more adult behavior without moderators editing your posts and whacking knuckles with rulers. We don't have a long list of published "thou shalt nots" either, and this is by design. Too many absolute rules paints us into too many corners. So check the Terms of Service - there IS language there about certain types of behavior that is not permitted. We interpret that lightly and permit a lot of latitude, but we DO reserve the right to take action when something is too extreme to tolerate (too racist, graphic, violent, misogynistic, etc.). Yes, that is subjective, but it allows us discretion. Avoiding a laundry list of rules allows for freedom; don't abuse it. However there ARE a few basic rules that will earn you a suspension, and apparently a brief refresher is in order. 1) Allegations of pedophilia - there is no tolerance for this. So if you make allegations, jokes, innuendo or suggestions about child molestation, child pornography, abuse or inappropriate behavior with minors etc. about someone on this board you will get a time out. This is pretty much automatic; this behavior can have real world effect and is not acceptable. Obviously the subject is not banned when discussion of it is apropos, e.g. talking about an item in the news for instance. But allegations or references directed at or about another poster is verboten. 2) Outing people - providing real world identifiable information about users on the forums who prefer to remain anonymous. Yes, some of us post with our real names - not a problem to use them. However many do NOT, and if you find out someone's name keep it to yourself, first or last. This also goes for other identifying information too - employer information etc. You don't need too many pieces of data to figure out who someone really is these days. Depending on severity you might get anything from a scolding to a suspension - so don't do it. I know it can be confusing sometimes for newcomers, as SA has been around almost twenty years and there are some people that throw their real names around and their current Display Name may not match the name they have out in the public. But if in doubt, you don't want to accidentally out some one so use caution, even if it's a personal friend of yours in real life. 3) Posting While Suspended - If you've earned a timeout (these are fairly rare and hard to get), please observe the suspension. If you create a new account (a "Sock Puppet") and return to the forums to post with it before your suspension is up you WILL get more time added to your original suspension and lose your Socks. This behavior may result a permanent ban, since it shows you have zero respect for the few rules we have and the moderating team that is tasked with supporting them. Check the Terms of Service you agreed to; they apply to the individual agreeing, not the account you created, so don't try to Sea Lawyer us if you get caught. Just don't do it. Those are the three that will almost certainly get you into some trouble. IF YOU SEE SOMEONE DO ONE OF THESE THINGS, please do the following: Refrain from quoting the offending text, it makes the thread cleanup a pain in the rear Press the Report button; it is by far the best way to notify Admins as we will get e-mails. Calling out for Admins in the middle of threads, sending us PM's, etc. - there is no guarantee we will get those in a timely fashion. There are multiple Moderators in multiple time zones around the world, and anyone one of us can handle the Report and all of us will be notified about it. But if you PM one Mod directly and he's off line, the problem will get dealt with much more slowly. Other behaviors that you might want to think twice before doing include: Intentionally disrupting threads and discussions repeatedly. Off topic/content free trolling in threads to disrupt dialog Stalking users around the forums with the intent to disrupt content and discussion Repeated posting of overly graphic or scatological porn content. There are plenty web sites for you to get your freak on, don't do it here. And a brief note to Newbies... No, we will not ban people or censor them for dropping F-bombs on you, using foul language, etc. so please don't report it when one of our members gives you a greeting you may find shocking. We do our best not to censor content here and playing swearword police is not in our job descriptions. Sailing Anarchy is more like a bar than a classroom, so handle it like you would meeting someone a little coarse - don't look for the teacher. Thanks.
    • B.J. Porter

      Moderation Team Change   06/16/2017

      After fifteen years of volunteer moderation at SA, I will no longer be part of the moderation team. The decision to step aside is mine, and has been some time in the works but we did not wish to announce it in advance for a number of reasons. It's been fun, but I need my time back for other purposes now. The Underdawg admin account will not be monitored until further notice, as I will be relinquishing control of it along with my administrative privileges. Zapata will continue on as a moderator, and any concerns or issues can be directed to that account or to the Editor until further notice. Anyone interested in helping moderate the forums should reach out to Scot by sending a PM to the Editor account. Please note that I am not leaving the community, I am merely stepping aside from Admin responsibilities and privileges on the site.
barfy

Weather Conditions for the Match

201 posts in this topic

8 hours ago, AC NZL said:

I lived in Germany for a long time and considering they have about 2 kilometres of coast line their sailing perigee plus their general personality qualities are questionable 

I beg to differ

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Rennie, all nationalities except Kiwis are currently considered fair game here. Just the way it is - for now. Bit of a shame for you as a long-term ETNZ supporter.

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Just now, dogwatch said:

Rennie, all nationalities except Kiwis are currently considered fair game here. Just the way it is - for now.

Nah, once dispatched the vanquished enemies are no longer of concern.

Just US passport wielding ginger Aussies left...

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Just now, dogwatch said:

Rennie, all nationalities except Kiwis are currently considered fair game here. Just the way it is - for now.

??

There is an entire contingent of people on here who's sole purpose in life appears to be attacking Kiwis in this forum.

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To be fair that "entire contingent" is probably just one or two people off their meds...

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37 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

Rennie, all nationalities except Kiwis are currently considered fair game here. Just the way it is - for now. Bit of a shame for you as a long-term ETNZ supporter.

Fair enough, just wanted to disagree. Looks like the above is pig vs. pig wrestling anyway.

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11 minutes ago, Qman said:

Btw. Oracles foils today look quite bat wing Esk. See Instagram 

linky please

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9 hours ago, ezyb said:

I wonder if the Kiwis have even sailed in an easterly yet?  I can't remember any of the LVC being raced in those conditions so it could be an advantage to Oracle despite the overall lightness.

Sithill made a big deal about sailing in an easterly in the presser today.

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1 hour ago, Qman said:

Btw. Oracles foils today look quite bat wing Esk. See Instagram 

Well of course they are going to copy the kiwis. 

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Looks pretty solid through the race window. Is there enough room to re-orient the course? Has there been any racing in Easterlies?

IMG_0030.PNG

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10 hours ago, Rennmaus said:

Fair enough, just wanted to disagree. Looks like the above is pig vs. pig wrestling anyway.

Ignore them Rennie. Don't teach a pig to fly, you're wasting your breath and annoying the pig. 

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17 hours ago, Indio said:

Sithill made a big deal about sailing in an easterly in the presser today.

Indio where do you get to see the pressers?  

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2 minutes ago, E63sccb said:

Indio where do you get to see the pressers?  

 

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28 minutes ago, Foyle said:

10kts ESE, very similar to today, ie awful for Oracle :)https://www.windguru.cz/32728

Actually a knot or two higher,  so a bit closer to their sweet spot and perhaps high enough that we can't deploy the bat whompers 

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Just been looking at models for next weekend, nothing super breezy at this stage, highest averages i saw across multiple models was 12knots.

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46 minutes ago, jaysper said:

Actually a knot or two higher,  so a bit closer to their sweet spot and perhaps high enough that we can't deploy the bat whompers 

If its 10 knots it should be fine for the bats.

I think the racing against Artemis showed they looked fine up until about 12 knots, they just remode for higher / deeper angles.  At 14 knots and they drop away pretty rapidly, 16 and they are really struggling.

Mind you if it is above 10 and they have the bats expect them to lose the first mark reach.

Well unless Oracle's light wind boards also have similar limitations and they happen to choose them as well.

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wind gury sitting 2-3 knots higher than today for the last two model runs. 

I would think good for the bat foils, and less big holes on the track. BoyB has it in hand i reckon with 12 being top for the bats before really losing pace on the DW. Upwind they didn't seem so bad against AR up to 14ish..

What OR brings to the light wind party is really an unknown, except for todays OK performance: ok up but not so deep DW.

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actual wind on windguru is currently 8kts, 2 knots below the forecast for this time of the morning, with just 7 hrs till racing is it going to fill in or will it remain slightly lighter than forecast 10kts (more like yesterday)?

another forecast shows wind under forecast too, and slight drop during day:

http://windalert.com/wind/spot/17860

If it stays light it is going to be a punishing day for Oracle.

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The lighter winds signing the death warrant for Oracle. You would have thought they saw this against Artemis? It's like the AC34 all over again they race the Kiwis first day and realise they are slower 

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3 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

The lighter winds signing the death warrant for Oracle. You would have thought they saw this against Artemis? It's like the AC34 all over again they race the Kiwis first day and realise they are slower 

Don't ever say that again!!!!!!!

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Bat wings are go

(photo on FB)

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don't be surprised if ORUSA start protesting ETNZ measurement certs to try to unsettle them, or event start suggesting 'cheating'.

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Whats the "Live wind / Wind guru" correlation like today? Slightly more puff as forecast or light like yesterday?

 

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Pearl Island currently averaging 9-10kts, gusting around 12kts, wind shifting around 40°!!!  2minute averages between about 7 and 11kts.  

Forecast has wind dropping slightly (maybe 0.5-1kt) as afternoon progresses.

It's about 1-2kts up on yesterday, but think that should still favour ETNZ strongly. 

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17 minutes ago, PabloAU said:

 

 

Best front view of the batwings at 0:59

 

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7 hours ago, Deer with no eyes said:

 

Hi Jon are you in Bermuda?

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22 minutes ago, Foyle said:

Pearl Island currently averaging 9-10kts, gusting around 12kts, wind shifting around 40°!!!  2minute averages between about 7 and 11kts.  

Forecast has wind dropping slightly (maybe 0.5-1kt) as afternoon progresses.

It's about 1-2kts up on yesterday, but think that should still favour ETNZ strongly. 

Yes, windspeed will greatly advantage ETNZ but puffs from different directions and plenty of holes will again make it very flukey for both. Wish it were steadier, no matter the wind speed.

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Until any other boat can execute ETNZ's snap tacks and jibes......all else is www banter....have not seen that yet...

 

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9 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Yes, windspeed will greatly advantage ETNZ but puffs from different directions and plenty of holes will again make it very flukey for both. Wish it were steadier, no matter the wind speed.

Agreed.  Perhaps counterintuitively, absent serious breeze, I think this is actually Oracle's preferred scenario.  A stable breeze would allow the Kiwis to exploit any boatspeed advantage, whereas a flukey day gives Slingsby the opportunity to outthink them and take speed off the table.

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Flukey winds will give the slower boat opportunities, so yeah a steady breeze would be better.

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12 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

May the best boat and team for in the conditions win, lotteries are no way to get proper results.

Totally agree mate - well said

 

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That familiar whinge of bad light air sailors: "It was a lottery!"

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

That familiar whinge of bad light air sailors: "It was a lottery!"

Yup - freely admit that in light airs I am worse than crap!......... hard to be "light & Nimble at 115kg

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1 minute ago, PabloAU said:

Yup - freelt admit that in light airs I am worse than crap!......... hard to be "light & Nimble at 115kg

Me to, only thing is I'm crap in heavy weather as well. I still love sailing however.

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Just now, laser 173312 said:

Me to, only thing is I'm crap in heavy weather as well. I still love sailing however.

Ohh yeah !

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2 hours ago, ~Stingray~ said:

May the best boat and team for in the conditions win, lotteries are no way to get proper results.

It's looking a bit like a lottery with only one ticket in the barrel...

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1 hour ago, Boybland said:

It's looking a bit like a lottery with only one ticket in the barrel...

Yep, today was plenty steady and Aotearoa proved that yesterday was no fluke.

That boat is fast!

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4 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Yep, today was plenty steady and Aotearoa proved that yesterday was no fluke.

That boat is fast!

 

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The greatest would be to see ETNZ ruin Oracle across the wind range.   Wins in a 15 kt day and a 20 knot day just to turn the knife.  

Its a stupid thing to wish, but god it would be good.

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Just remember the advantage Oracle had with the fact that they could solely design the boat for low wind as the likelyhood of the time of the match was for this. The challengers had to design for all wind in order to progress through the challenger series where the range was greater for the time of year.

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On 6/17/2017 at 4:01 AM, Boybland said:

??

There is an entire contingent of people on here who's sole purpose in life appears to be attacking Kiwis in this forum.

You guys can sure dish it, but can't take it. Who cares anyway? It is a bunch of banter about some boring races that are going your way. Just have a laugh and enjoy this one.

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the ever changing forcast is now:

Saturday: 8 with gusts of 10

Sunday: 6 with gusts of 6

no one will really know until the day

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18 minutes ago, pusslicker said:

You guys can sure dish it, but can't take it. Who cares anyway? It is a bunch of banter about some boring races that are going your way. Just have a laugh and enjoy this one.

Have no fear I am enjoying it.

Just calling a spade a spade, it's something we do down this way.

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I haven't every tracked the reliability of windguru a number of days out but they appear to be sticking around the 7-11 knots for Saturday & my understanding is that because of Bermuda's isolation they will see any descent fronts coming in advance - no one is talking about anything like that on the horizon so fingers crossed for lightish but steady winds come this weekend.

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On 17/06/2017 at 9:58 PM, dogwatch said:

Rennie, all nationalities except Kiwis are currently considered fair game here. Just the way it is - for now. Bit of a shame for you as a long-term ETNZ supporter.

Here you go, bro, this'll obviate the need for help with the tricky last attachment as you mount your portable cross of martyrdom... grp20390a.jpg&sp=79cc57d35a08dbe352d2cda

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Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

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1 minute ago, dogwatch said:

Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

you may have a point, but team NZ did win and hold the cup before and I don't recall it being known as pond scum.

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Plenty of criticism of the time it took to stage the event, as I recall. In any case, these are different times. Today's hero becoming tomorrow's laughing stock is part of the Zeitgeist and I'd expect exactly the same outcome should LRBAR ever lift the Cup. We shall see.

 

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Am sure this has been posted before but in this one on one interview with PB yesterday you get the strong feeling ETNZ have lots of improvements to make and PB sees it as a real possibility that the outcome will remain the same this weekend - it seems like slightly more honest and positive answers by PB than in the presser - ETNZ have clearly planned all along to have mods in the tank to install in these 5 days - will be interesting to see if they make a difference!:

 

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11 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

Totally. Let's wait and see...

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11 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

"The precious"

 

That being said, Larry brought the cup modern design even if he wrecked it with modern venue selection, exclusionary ideas, and possibly the most pitiful publicity and PR campaign seen at this level.  If NZ keeps it fast and cutting edge and adds a nationality rule, even if they fuck up the rest it will be a big improvement.  

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11 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

I have to say I never considered Oracle the saviour of the Cup, I know I wanted Oracle to win in 2010 just to get rid of EB. I also remember posting in 2010 that I wanted Oracle to lose it at the 34th event.

Thing is EB would of never of won the cup if the COR in 2003 had stopped them challenging. SNG were an invalid challenge. Who was COR in 2003, GGYC represented by LE and Oracle, they've been pond scum since they first arrived on the cup scene. 

Lets hope the LE has had enough of the cup and stays away in the future, same goes for EB.

 

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Sorry for going OT just then. Currently showing southerlies both days, 7-8 on Sat and 6-7 Sun. Could be close to race on Sun.

3 hours ago, TN_Kiwi said:

overnight, it seems the wind speed and direction prediction for Sat/Sun has changed - looks like we could have an actual contest this time (?)

It's still early days of course.

https://www.windguru.cz/32728

 

 

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Looking like ETNZ breeze right through to next wed. There's a more than 90% chance it'll be light.


 

Screen Shot 2017-06-20 at 3.40.55 PM.png

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18 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

Really, when was that? When they delayed everything even more with their legal battles than ETNZ did organizing the venue?

 

6 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

That being said, Larry brought the cup modern design even if he wrecked it with modern venue selection, exclusionary ideas, and possibly the most pitiful publicity and PR campaign seen at this level.  If NZ keeps it fast and cutting edge and adds a nationality rule, even if they fuck up the rest it will be a big improvement.  

Not really. Alinghi brought the Cats and ETNZ the foiling.

I personally would be glad to see LE gone. He is only comfortable if everything goes his way.

BTT: Hopefully the light winds prevail. I want to see a sweep.

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3 hours ago, R15 said:

Looking like ETNZ breeze right through to next wed. There's a more than 90% chance it'll be light.


 

Screen Shot 2017-06-20 at 3.40.55 PM.png

Time to get those brooms out again boys.

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5 hours ago, Marty6 said:

Really, when was that? When they delayed everything even more with their legal battles than ETNZ did organizing the venue?

 

Yes that period, leading up to AC33. There was support for what the team now known as OTUSA was doing from Grant Dalton, from most of the sailing media and febrile support from 95% of SAAC, including some of the same individuals who throw stones at OTUSA today.

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The wind is picking up!!!!

 

just kidding. 9 for saturday and 7 for Sunday... not sure we need mondays:)

 

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20 minutes ago, starlyte said:

The wind is picking up!!!!

 

just kidding. 9 for saturday and 7 for Sunday... not sure we need mondays:)

 

Sweet 

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The side of me supporting NZ is happy with the forecast. 

The sailor in me was dreaming of at least one day of 20+ to see what these two teams could really do with these boats. We got a glimpse of what was possible in the semis, but seeing OR and NZ in the AC hanging on for life and limb would be truly amazing. 

 

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13 hours ago, Marty6 said:

Not really. Alinghi brought the Cats ....

Dennis Conner, 1988 brought the Cats

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14 minutes ago, laser 173312 said:

Dennis Conner, 1988 brought the Cats

I brought a cat, they brought a dog

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22 hours ago, Rohanoz said:

The side of me supporting NZ is happy with the forecast. 

The sailor in me was dreaming of at least one day of 20+ to see what these two teams could really do with these boats. We got a glimpse of what was possible in the semis, but seeing OR and NZ in the AC hanging on for life and limb would be truly amazing. 

 

Likewise.  I feel comfortable is sailing in 7 knot wind and winning.

20 knot - more interesting, but higher risk

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20 hours ago, DevsNzL said:

I brought a cat, they brought a dog

"I'm sailing a cat. Someone else is sailing a dog." Dennis Conner, 1988.

"You're full of shit...you're a loser. Get off the stage" Dennis Conner, 1988 (to Bruce Farr).

And you'll thought Jimmy has a smart mouth.

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yup i gotta say the forecasts have a high confidence now, haven't changed for 3 days. That being said i've observed WG forecast speeds picking up nearer the day. This is evident this week when most of the "biggest 5 days in our program" looked unsailable from far but have all been in the low end of the limits.

So i'm picking 9-12 for the weekend.

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2 hours ago, Sailbydate said:

"I'm sailing a cat. Someone else is sailing a dog." Dennis Conner, 1988.

"You're full of shit...you're a loser. Get off the stage" Dennis Conner, 1988 (to Bruce Farr).

And you'll thought Jimmy has a smart mouth.

Agreed.  Conner was, to put it mildly, very blunt.  Remember his taunting of the NZL challenge in '87?  "Why would you build a plastic boat if you didn't want to cheat?" or something to that effect.

History has been kinder to Conner.  One reason is due to him losing the Cup in '83, and then redeeming himself in '87 to win it back.  Jimmy has not been through any such adversity (yet!).  Hell, Jimmy hasn't even won a Louis Vuitton Cup yet, and Dean has won 2 of those (and 1 race in 2000, to win the AC).

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Wind direction has slowly clocked all week and at this moment is now north of due west, quite light (I'd guess 6-8 based on the waves), and it's overcast and super humid. Given how it has trended and is now, I tend to believe the GFS/NAM models showing 5-12 out of the SW +/- 30 degrees. 

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why exactly was Bermuda chosen?

and what exactly was wrong with San Francisco?

 

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I would guess: because they thought that Bermuda was perhaps the most worst location for ETNZ that they were able to find?
(Get rid of all the thousands supporters that just did a 10h flight from NZ to SF before, and void advertising support for races that take place at 5 am)

Or it was "just" the 60m $ infrastructure that Bermuda was bringing into the event

On the other hand; Orifice had some very, very bad experience with the waves and the tides in SF Bay they perhaps did not want to repeat.
Unfortunately it seems that they have missed to carefully read the weather charts for this time of the year ...

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Sunday is looking like a bit more breeze potentially but will it be enough to save Oracle? Doubtful.

Screen Shot 2017-06-22 at 2.48.24 PM.png

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8 minutes ago, TN_Kiwi said:

not according to this forecast:  https://www.windguru.cz/32728

Yes,  Sunday is looking marginal for racing.

Don't want the weather to take its throat of Orifice's neck!

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33 minutes ago, jaysper said:

Yes,  Sunday is looking marginal for racing.

Don't want the weather to take its throat of Orifice's neck!

Care to start another poll? :)

 

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monday is more of the same tho, no relief in sight. 7-8 knots. 

 

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4 hours ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Care to start another poll? :)

 

Oh hell no! Don't want to provide yet another lightning rod for the vitriol that is currently ramping up.

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Couple weather sites I looked at, of course not Bermuda specialists, are showing light air....  <12 anyway

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