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    • Zapata

      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

      Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules.  Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo.  Warning and or timeout for a first offense.  PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members.  See above for penalties.  Caveat:  if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods.  We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post.   We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking.  There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious.  There is no standard, we will know it when we see it.  If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining.  Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious.  Deal with it.  Welcome to anarchy.   If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to.  They will be explained to you soon enough.  
barfy

Weather Conditions for the Match

276 posts in this topic

8 hours ago, AC NZL said:

I lived in Germany for a long time and considering they have about 2 kilometres of coast line their sailing perigee plus their general personality qualities are questionable 

I beg to differ

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Rennie, all nationalities except Kiwis are currently considered fair game here. Just the way it is - for now. Bit of a shame for you as a long-term ETNZ supporter.

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Just now, dogwatch said:

Rennie, all nationalities except Kiwis are currently considered fair game here. Just the way it is - for now.

Nah, once dispatched the vanquished enemies are no longer of concern.

Just US passport wielding ginger Aussies left...

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Just now, dogwatch said:

Rennie, all nationalities except Kiwis are currently considered fair game here. Just the way it is - for now.

??

There is an entire contingent of people on here who's sole purpose in life appears to be attacking Kiwis in this forum.

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To be fair that "entire contingent" is probably just one or two people off their meds...

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37 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

Rennie, all nationalities except Kiwis are currently considered fair game here. Just the way it is - for now. Bit of a shame for you as a long-term ETNZ supporter.

Fair enough, just wanted to disagree. Looks like the above is pig vs. pig wrestling anyway.

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Btw. Oracles foils today look quite bat wing Esk. See Instagram 

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Usa to pull of race 1?

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11 minutes ago, Qman said:

Btw. Oracles foils today look quite bat wing Esk. See Instagram 

linky please

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9 hours ago, ezyb said:

I wonder if the Kiwis have even sailed in an easterly yet?  I can't remember any of the LVC being raced in those conditions so it could be an advantage to Oracle despite the overall lightness.

Sithill made a big deal about sailing in an easterly in the presser today.

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1 hour ago, Qman said:

Btw. Oracles foils today look quite bat wing Esk. See Instagram 

Well of course they are going to copy the kiwis. 

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Looks pretty solid through the race window. Is there enough room to re-orient the course? Has there been any racing in Easterlies?

IMG_0030.PNG

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10 hours ago, Rennmaus said:

Fair enough, just wanted to disagree. Looks like the above is pig vs. pig wrestling anyway.

Ignore them Rennie. Don't teach a pig to fly, you're wasting your breath and annoying the pig. 

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2 minutes ago, E63sccb said:

Indio where do you get to see the pressers?  

 

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40 minutes ago, Enzedel92 said:

How is the wind looking for race day 2?

10kts ESE, very similar to today, ie awful for Oracle :)https://www.windguru.cz/32728

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One or two knots harder, probably suit us better as left shifty as fuller?

 

 

IMG_0749.PNG

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28 minutes ago, Foyle said:

10kts ESE, very similar to today, ie awful for Oracle :)https://www.windguru.cz/32728

Actually a knot or two higher,  so a bit closer to their sweet spot and perhaps high enough that we can't deploy the bat whompers 

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Just been looking at models for next weekend, nothing super breezy at this stage, highest averages i saw across multiple models was 12knots.

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46 minutes ago, jaysper said:

Actually a knot or two higher,  so a bit closer to their sweet spot and perhaps high enough that we can't deploy the bat whompers 

If its 10 knots it should be fine for the bats.

I think the racing against Artemis showed they looked fine up until about 12 knots, they just remode for higher / deeper angles.  At 14 knots and they drop away pretty rapidly, 16 and they are really struggling.

Mind you if it is above 10 and they have the bats expect them to lose the first mark reach.

Well unless Oracle's light wind boards also have similar limitations and they happen to choose them as well.

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wind gury sitting 2-3 knots higher than today for the last two model runs. 

I would think good for the bat foils, and less big holes on the track. BoyB has it in hand i reckon with 12 being top for the bats before really losing pace on the DW. Upwind they didn't seem so bad against AR up to 14ish..

What OR brings to the light wind party is really an unknown, except for todays OK performance: ok up but not so deep DW.

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actual wind on windguru is currently 8kts, 2 knots below the forecast for this time of the morning, with just 7 hrs till racing is it going to fill in or will it remain slightly lighter than forecast 10kts (more like yesterday)?

another forecast shows wind under forecast too, and slight drop during day:

http://windalert.com/wind/spot/17860

If it stays light it is going to be a punishing day for Oracle.

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The lighter winds signing the death warrant for Oracle. You would have thought they saw this against Artemis? It's like the AC34 all over again they race the Kiwis first day and realise they are slower 

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3 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

The lighter winds signing the death warrant for Oracle. You would have thought they saw this against Artemis? It's like the AC34 all over again they race the Kiwis first day and realise they are slower 

Don't ever say that again!!!!!!!

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TNZ boards selected an hour ago? Batwings? With OR trying to mince it bigger like Artemis?

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Bats for sure 

pearl island weather between 10-12. 

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I hope the wind is light enough so that Oracle have to use their light air setup.

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Bat wings are go

(photo on FB)

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don't be surprised if ORUSA start protesting ETNZ measurement certs to try to unsettle them, or event start suggesting 'cheating'.

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Whats the "Live wind / Wind guru" correlation like today? Slightly more puff as forecast or light like yesterday?

 

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Pearl Island currently averaging 9-10kts, gusting around 12kts, wind shifting around 40°!!!  2minute averages between about 7 and 11kts.  

Forecast has wind dropping slightly (maybe 0.5-1kt) as afternoon progresses.

It's about 1-2kts up on yesterday, but think that should still favour ETNZ strongly. 

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17 minutes ago, PabloAU said:

 

 

Best front view of the batwings at 0:59

 

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22 minutes ago, Foyle said:

Pearl Island currently averaging 9-10kts, gusting around 12kts, wind shifting around 40°!!!  2minute averages between about 7 and 11kts.  

Forecast has wind dropping slightly (maybe 0.5-1kt) as afternoon progresses.

It's about 1-2kts up on yesterday, but think that should still favour ETNZ strongly. 

Yes, windspeed will greatly advantage ETNZ but puffs from different directions and plenty of holes will again make it very flukey for both. Wish it were steadier, no matter the wind speed.

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Until any other boat can execute ETNZ's snap tacks and jibes......all else is www banter....have not seen that yet...

 

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9 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Yes, windspeed will greatly advantage ETNZ but puffs from different directions and plenty of holes will again make it very flukey for both. Wish it were steadier, no matter the wind speed.

Agreed.  Perhaps counterintuitively, absent serious breeze, I think this is actually Oracle's preferred scenario.  A stable breeze would allow the Kiwis to exploit any boatspeed advantage, whereas a flukey day gives Slingsby the opportunity to outthink them and take speed off the table.

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Flukey winds will give the slower boat opportunities, so yeah a steady breeze would be better.

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May the best boat and team for in the conditions win, lotteries are no way to get proper results.

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Here here. Well said that man. 

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12 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

May the best boat and team for in the conditions win, lotteries are no way to get proper results.

Totally agree mate - well said

 

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That familiar whinge of bad light air sailors: "It was a lottery!"

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

That familiar whinge of bad light air sailors: "It was a lottery!"

Yup - freely admit that in light airs I am worse than crap!......... hard to be "light & Nimble at 115kg

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1 minute ago, PabloAU said:

Yup - freelt admit that in light airs I am worse than crap!......... hard to be "light & Nimble at 115kg

Me to, only thing is I'm crap in heavy weather as well. I still love sailing however.

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Just now, laser 173312 said:

Me to, only thing is I'm crap in heavy weather as well. I still love sailing however.

Ohh yeah !

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alright. now we have 5 days to guess the next forecast...... GO

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2 hours ago, ~Stingray~ said:

May the best boat and team for in the conditions win, lotteries are no way to get proper results.

It's looking a bit like a lottery with only one ticket in the barrel...

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1 hour ago, Boybland said:

It's looking a bit like a lottery with only one ticket in the barrel...

Yep, today was plenty steady and Aotearoa proved that yesterday was no fluke.

That boat is fast!

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4 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Yep, today was plenty steady and Aotearoa proved that yesterday was no fluke.

That boat is fast!

 

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Saturday - 6 with gusts of 8

Sunday - 9 with gusts of 11

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The greatest would be to see ETNZ ruin Oracle across the wind range.   Wins in a 15 kt day and a 20 knot day just to turn the knife.  

Its a stupid thing to wish, but god it would be good.

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Just remember the advantage Oracle had with the fact that they could solely design the boat for low wind as the likelyhood of the time of the match was for this. The challengers had to design for all wind in order to progress through the challenger series where the range was greater for the time of year.

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On 6/17/2017 at 4:01 AM, Boybland said:

??

There is an entire contingent of people on here who's sole purpose in life appears to be attacking Kiwis in this forum.

You guys can sure dish it, but can't take it. Who cares anyway? It is a bunch of banter about some boring races that are going your way. Just have a laugh and enjoy this one.

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the ever changing forcast is now:

Saturday: 8 with gusts of 10

Sunday: 6 with gusts of 6

no one will really know until the day

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18 minutes ago, pusslicker said:

You guys can sure dish it, but can't take it. Who cares anyway? It is a bunch of banter about some boring races that are going your way. Just have a laugh and enjoy this one.

Have no fear I am enjoying it.

Just calling a spade a spade, it's something we do down this way.

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I haven't every tracked the reliability of windguru a number of days out but they appear to be sticking around the 7-11 knots for Saturday & my understanding is that because of Bermuda's isolation they will see any descent fronts coming in advance - no one is talking about anything like that on the horizon so fingers crossed for lightish but steady winds come this weekend.

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On 17/06/2017 at 9:58 PM, dogwatch said:

Rennie, all nationalities except Kiwis are currently considered fair game here. Just the way it is - for now. Bit of a shame for you as a long-term ETNZ supporter.

Here you go, bro, this'll obviate the need for help with the tricky last attachment as you mount your portable cross of martyrdom... grp20390a.jpg&sp=79cc57d35a08dbe352d2cda

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Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

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1 minute ago, dogwatch said:

Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

you may have a point, but team NZ did win and hold the cup before and I don't recall it being known as pond scum.

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Plenty of criticism of the time it took to stage the event, as I recall. In any case, these are different times. Today's hero becoming tomorrow's laughing stock is part of the Zeitgeist and I'd expect exactly the same outcome should LRBAR ever lift the Cup. We shall see.

 

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Am sure this has been posted before but in this one on one interview with PB yesterday you get the strong feeling ETNZ have lots of improvements to make and PB sees it as a real possibility that the outcome will remain the same this weekend - it seems like slightly more honest and positive answers by PB than in the presser - ETNZ have clearly planned all along to have mods in the tank to install in these 5 days - will be interesting to see if they make a difference!:

 

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overnight, it seems the wind speed and direction prediction for Sat/Sun has changed - looks like we could have an actual contest this time (?)

It's still early days of course.

https://www.windguru.cz/32728

 

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11 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

Totally. Let's wait and see...

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11 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

"The precious"

 

That being said, Larry brought the cup modern design even if he wrecked it with modern venue selection, exclusionary ideas, and possibly the most pitiful publicity and PR campaign seen at this level.  If NZ keeps it fast and cutting edge and adds a nationality rule, even if they fuck up the rest it will be a big improvement.  

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11 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

I have to say I never considered Oracle the saviour of the Cup, I know I wanted Oracle to win in 2010 just to get rid of EB. I also remember posting in 2010 that I wanted Oracle to lose it at the 34th event.

Thing is EB would of never of won the cup if the COR in 2003 had stopped them challenging. SNG were an invalid challenge. Who was COR in 2003, GGYC represented by LE and Oracle, they've been pond scum since they first arrived on the cup scene. 

Lets hope the LE has had enough of the cup and stays away in the future, same goes for EB.

 

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Sorry for going OT just then. Currently showing southerlies both days, 7-8 on Sat and 6-7 Sun. Could be close to race on Sun.

3 hours ago, TN_Kiwi said:

overnight, it seems the wind speed and direction prediction for Sat/Sun has changed - looks like we could have an actual contest this time (?)

It's still early days of course.

https://www.windguru.cz/32728

 

 

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Looking like ETNZ breeze right through to next wed. There's a more than 90% chance it'll be light.


 

Screen Shot 2017-06-20 at 3.40.55 PM.png

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18 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Not at all. I'm here for the long term. Oracle used to be considered the saviour of the Cup. Now they are classed as pond-scum. ETNZ is now considered to be the saviour of the Cup. Have you considered the possibility of a recurring pattern?

Really, when was that? When they delayed everything even more with their legal battles than ETNZ did organizing the venue?

 

6 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

That being said, Larry brought the cup modern design even if he wrecked it with modern venue selection, exclusionary ideas, and possibly the most pitiful publicity and PR campaign seen at this level.  If NZ keeps it fast and cutting edge and adds a nationality rule, even if they fuck up the rest it will be a big improvement.  

Not really. Alinghi brought the Cats and ETNZ the foiling.

I personally would be glad to see LE gone. He is only comfortable if everything goes his way.

BTT: Hopefully the light winds prevail. I want to see a sweep.

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3 hours ago, R15 said:

Looking like ETNZ breeze right through to next wed. There's a more than 90% chance it'll be light.


 

Screen Shot 2017-06-20 at 3.40.55 PM.png

Time to get those brooms out again boys.

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5 hours ago, Marty6 said:

Really, when was that? When they delayed everything even more with their legal battles than ETNZ did organizing the venue?

 

Yes that period, leading up to AC33. There was support for what the team now known as OTUSA was doing from Grant Dalton, from most of the sailing media and febrile support from 95% of SAAC, including some of the same individuals who throw stones at OTUSA today.

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The wind is picking up!!!!

 

just kidding. 9 for saturday and 7 for Sunday... not sure we need mondays:)

 

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20 minutes ago, starlyte said:

The wind is picking up!!!!

 

just kidding. 9 for saturday and 7 for Sunday... not sure we need mondays:)

 

Sweet 

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The side of me supporting NZ is happy with the forecast. 

The sailor in me was dreaming of at least one day of 20+ to see what these two teams could really do with these boats. We got a glimpse of what was possible in the semis, but seeing OR and NZ in the AC hanging on for life and limb would be truly amazing. 

 

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13 hours ago, Marty6 said:

Not really. Alinghi brought the Cats ....

Dennis Conner, 1988 brought the Cats

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14 minutes ago, laser 173312 said:

Dennis Conner, 1988 brought the Cats

I brought a cat, they brought a dog

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22 hours ago, Rohanoz said:

The side of me supporting NZ is happy with the forecast. 

The sailor in me was dreaming of at least one day of 20+ to see what these two teams could really do with these boats. We got a glimpse of what was possible in the semis, but seeing OR and NZ in the AC hanging on for life and limb would be truly amazing. 

 

Likewise.  I feel comfortable is sailing in 7 knot wind and winning.

20 knot - more interesting, but higher risk

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20 hours ago, DevsNzL said:

I brought a cat, they brought a dog

"I'm sailing a cat. Someone else is sailing a dog." Dennis Conner, 1988.

"You're full of shit...you're a loser. Get off the stage" Dennis Conner, 1988 (to Bruce Farr).

And you'll thought Jimmy has a smart mouth.

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yup i gotta say the forecasts have a high confidence now, haven't changed for 3 days. That being said i've observed WG forecast speeds picking up nearer the day. This is evident this week when most of the "biggest 5 days in our program" looked unsailable from far but have all been in the low end of the limits.

So i'm picking 9-12 for the weekend.

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2 hours ago, Sailbydate said:

"I'm sailing a cat. Someone else is sailing a dog." Dennis Conner, 1988.

"You're full of shit...you're a loser. Get off the stage" Dennis Conner, 1988 (to Bruce Farr).

And you'll thought Jimmy has a smart mouth.

Agreed.  Conner was, to put it mildly, very blunt.  Remember his taunting of the NZL challenge in '87?  "Why would you build a plastic boat if you didn't want to cheat?" or something to that effect.

History has been kinder to Conner.  One reason is due to him losing the Cup in '83, and then redeeming himself in '87 to win it back.  Jimmy has not been through any such adversity (yet!).  Hell, Jimmy hasn't even won a Louis Vuitton Cup yet, and Dean has won 2 of those (and 1 race in 2000, to win the AC).

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Wind direction has slowly clocked all week and at this moment is now north of due west, quite light (I'd guess 6-8 based on the waves), and it's overcast and super humid. Given how it has trended and is now, I tend to believe the GFS/NAM models showing 5-12 out of the SW +/- 30 degrees. 

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why exactly was Bermuda chosen?

and what exactly was wrong with San Francisco?

 

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I would guess: because they thought that Bermuda was perhaps the most worst location for ETNZ that they were able to find?
(Get rid of all the thousands supporters that just did a 10h flight from NZ to SF before, and void advertising support for races that take place at 5 am)

Or it was "just" the 60m $ infrastructure that Bermuda was bringing into the event

On the other hand; Orifice had some very, very bad experience with the waves and the tides in SF Bay they perhaps did not want to repeat.
Unfortunately it seems that they have missed to carefully read the weather charts for this time of the year ...

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Sunday is looking like a bit more breeze potentially but will it be enough to save Oracle? Doubtful.

Screen Shot 2017-06-22 at 2.48.24 PM.png

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8 minutes ago, TN_Kiwi said:

not according to this forecast:  https://www.windguru.cz/32728

Yes,  Sunday is looking marginal for racing.

Don't want the weather to take its throat of Orifice's neck!

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33 minutes ago, jaysper said:

Yes,  Sunday is looking marginal for racing.

Don't want the weather to take its throat of Orifice's neck!

Care to start another poll? :)

 

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monday is more of the same tho, no relief in sight. 7-8 knots. 

 

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4 hours ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Care to start another poll? :)

 

Oh hell no! Don't want to provide yet another lightning rod for the vitriol that is currently ramping up.

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Couple weather sites I looked at, of course not Bermuda specialists, are showing light air....  <12 anyway

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15 hours ago, High Flow said:

and what exactly was wrong with San Francisco?

 

Good grief, this has all been discussed 1000 times here. In a sentence, BDA sincerely wanted the event and SF didn't much want it at all. From the desire followed the $$$s,

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All models starting to align showing Races 5/6 around 10k or less and on Sunday for 7/8 10 -15k.

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25 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

All models starting to align showing Races 5/6 around 10k or less and on Sunday for 7/8 10 -15k.

You sure on your Sunday call?

 

I've put Monday in as well but I don't think it'll be needed

 

 

IMG_2695.PNG

IMG_2696.PNG

IMG_2697.PNG

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