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Tornado-Cat

What will Oracle modify during these 5 days to try to recover

835 posts in this topic

JS said everything was on the table, what shall we see next weekend ?

What we will not see:

- cyclors, it would take too long to train them

- completely new foils in carbon, it would take too long to make them

 

What we may see:

- better crew aero, must be pretty easy to do

- modified foils with metal using the 10% rule or the 30% if they can still use it.

- modified rudders with less drag and more stability during tacks

- Different controls, the wheel controlled by JS would be complemented by another crew dedicated to the control of the altitude of the platform at the cm. If you look at tnz, they control the bow at about 30 cm above the water.

- Enhanced reality like probably TNZ, computers calcule the ideal position of the boat, a human does it in order to be prot compliant

- Modification of the wing, but that will be hard to see.

What is you guess ?

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

- Enhanced reality like probably TNZ, computers calcule the ideal position of the boat, a human does it in order to be prot compliant

This would be my guess. Along the same lines as what they did in AC34 - they figured out how to sail their boat better, closer to its potential.

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Please see the prediction of what would happen I made back in March.

and also see the post 2 after where I qualify what 'new boat' means.

 

So far, pretty well what I sald would happen, has happened.  New big mods will come out this week, and they'll still get beaten 

FWIW I think they'll add more cycle capacity and I think they'll try and significantly modify foils, possibly to the extent that we'll see catastrophic failure like the NZ mast in  2003.

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14 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

JS said everything was on the table, what shall we see next weekend ?

What we will not see:

- cyclors, it would take too long to train them

- completely new foils in carbon, it would take too long to make them

 

What we may see:

- better crew aero, must be pretty easy to do

- modified foils with metal using the 10% rule or the 30% if they can still use it.

- modified rudders with less drag and more stability during tacks

- Different controls, the wheel controlled by JS would be complemented by another crew dedicated to the control of the altitude of the platform at the cm. If you look at tnz, they control the bow at about 30 cm above the water.

- Enhanced reality like probably TNZ, computers calcule the ideal position of the boat, a human does it in order to be prot compliant

- Modification of the wing, but that will be hard to see.

What is you guess ?

 

 

I don't know the circumstances of the 30% change, but they need to slim/shave the foils to reduce drag and spray interference with the rudders. They also need to dump as much weight as possible. Their boat basically needs to be like a drag race car, little weight as is feasible. If it breaks, it breaks. They also need to run more simulations of the starts with Japan to massively improve maneuverability. 

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1 minute ago, buoy said:

I don't know the circumstances of the 30% change, but they need to slim/shave the foils to reduce drag and spray interference with the rudders. They also need to dump as much weight as possible. Their boat basically needs to be like a drag race car, little weight as is feasible. If it breaks, it breaks. They also need to run more simulations of the starts with Japan to massively improve maneuverability. 

they can't train now with Japacle

 

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I'm thinking rocket assisted afterburners could help.

 

Or possibly a 1000hp Arneson surface drive in each hull

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They will completely change the rules within those 5 days and bring out a prefabricated new boat for those rules ;)

 

Honestly, it's probably going to be some automation which they cover up by human interaction. Sound familiar?

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7 minutes ago, raging rash said:

they can't train now with Japacle

 

My assumption is that they will roll out the japan boat as Oracle #2 and practice race against it. 

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Their to do list is like trying to climb Everest in the middle of a freak storm. They don't have the luxury of a 9 race series. They would need to exceed NZ's performance to win from 4-0 down as if the boats are at least dead even I still think Burling would win. The difference is far greater than the AC34 and this is assuming that they know exactly every advantage NZ has and I'm not so sure they do? Even if they were able to do most of this that doesn't cater for Burling being far better than Barker. Barker had some shockers in the AC34, Burling will not give them that luxury. This time NZ have made it impossible to bridge the gap in such a short period. 

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They will be fitting a larger buttplug, the one they're using now isn't up to the reaming they're getting.

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19 minutes ago, aucklander said:

we'll see catastrophic failure like the NZ mast in  2003.

Ah yes fond memories.

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I wouldn't 100% rule out cyclors. The main problem is that they might not be as efficient as ours, but they may be speaking with the US cycling team right now. I'm sure a couple of them might fancy a weekend in Bermuda and a million dollars pocket money. Boat 2?

No new foils. They would be too far down the road with their current regime to make any changes there (this is what I'm most excited about).

Can't imagine what would be in store for better crew aero (presuming they didn't use cyclors). Shorter arms? I don't think they can add anything to the boat like pods or suchlike. 

Rudders: they would have already maxed out on those (in terms of development, not in numbers, i understand there is no limit to this).

Controls might be interesting. Having put myself mentally into the positions of the two helmsmen, I know I sure could do without the additional stress of maintaining ride height; particularly if the controls were on the steering wheel. Can you imagine driving a car with the accellerator in the 10 and 2 position on your steering wheel? What a nightmare.

Jimmy said everything's back on the table, so presumably that would include the possibility of a boat 2 that had been left 80% completed so they could ram something together in 5 days?

From what I've read, the rules and measurement is much tighter than 2013 and the teams know heaps more about how to make it work. I feel they've simply reached max speed and have run out of runway (as they say).

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I don't think a tech solution will save them at this point

Jimmy needs to win the starts or die trying. 

Pray for 15 knots + of breeze. 

Lacking either of these things, the kiwis will run away with the Mug

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I think it will be fascinating to see what changes they make.

I assume cyclors are out of the question - even if they could add cycle stations, they'd need a completely different crew. No chance of achieving that in 5 days (I assume it wouldn't even be permitted).

Personally I think they have too much vertical part of their foils in the water contributing sideforce but at a higher drag penalty. When you look at ETNZ their foils are really only in the water at the "knuckle", which I think is a factor of why they have a lot less upwind hydro drag and means that even the sideforce being generated is also contributing some lift component. Oracle could certainly make modifications to the foil control mechanisms and/or foil depth, but it might compromise the depth of the horizontal foil blades and I feel there simply isn't time to "tune" changes to their foils. In fact, any foil changes are just as likely to compromise performance as they are to add to it IMO.

I do think we'll see them looking to lose less speed through transitions, and, like ETNZ better control of ride-height over the water. Having said that, they've known about ETNZ's turning speed and bow-down attitude since the Round Robin and haven't matched it, so why would they be able to achieve it in 5 more days? Their cycle station puts the weight aft which must make it harder to sail nose-down and that must increase aero drag a bit relative to ETNZ. Turning performance could be achieved through a different distribution of tasks to the crew and changes to control mechanisms, but good luck refining them in a few days!

I think they'll definitely look to do anything possible to reduce windage but that will be a very minor component of performance.

They'll probably do anything that can give them better control of the wing surfaces, but that is as much about testing and practice with control systems as it is about the technology.  

They've really got a double-edged battle on their hands. Gains made upwind are effectively worth 1.5 x gains made downwind simply because boats spend more time going upwind... However with a slower boat they have to lead at mark 1 if they are going to have any chance to force errors on ETNZ and control the racing. 

They're going to have to make some decisions here, because their current configuration even with asymmetrical foils isn't giving them that speed advantage on a reach that Artemis enjoyed over ETNZ, and yet if they improve their speed in that range it'll be very difficult for them to improve upwind performance.

If they can convert their boat in 5 days to have superior performance to ETNZ *in the same conditions we've seen to date* I'll be somewhat suspicious of some illegal weight distribution modifications or similar. 

If they stick to legal mods they're going to have a tough week finding the speed they need.

I think Larry will probably be considering more effective ways to spend his cash like offering ETNZ team members untold millions to throw enough of the remaining races.

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I'd try changing the control set-up so that Slingsby has control of the foils and Jimmy it just steering. It's a stretch but it's doable in 5 days, particularly if they have already been working on it.

That appears to be one reason that ETNZ can get more stability out of less draggy foils. When BAR and now OR have stuck smaller foils on to try and get in the same ball park speed wise they have both had issues keeping the boat out of the water.

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12 minutes ago, webdeveloper said:

I wouldn't 100% rule out cyclors. The main problem is that they might not be as efficient as ours, but they may be speaking with the US cycling team right now. I'm sure a couple of them might fancy a weekend in Bermuda and a million dollars pocket money. Boat 2?

...

Jimmy said everything's back on the table, so presumably that would include the possibility of a boat 2 that had been left 80% completed so they could ram something together in 5 days?

MOB anyone for US cycle team option? They already had problems with transition of grinders in light winds where one almost went over board.

New boat? I thought only one set of hulls were allowed. But who knows, rule changes could cover that.

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7 minutes ago, KoW said:

 

I do think we'll see them looking to lose less speed through transitions, and, like ETNZ better control of ride-height over the water. Having said that, they've known about ETNZ's turning speed and bow-down attitude since the Round Robin and haven't matched it, so why would they be able to achieve it in 5 more days? Their cycle station puts the weight aft which must make it harder to sail nose-down and that must increase aero drag a bit relative to ETNZ. 

They've known about this since March when the NZ boat launched.  NZ have been bow down and were pulling donuts on the harbour in front of Okahu Bay for everyone to see, including OR spyboats.  They are not going to come up with that sort of performance in 5 days.

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3 minutes ago, Marty6 said:

MOB anyone for US cycle team option? They already had problems with transition of grinders in light winds where one almost went over board.

New boat? I thought only one set of hulls were allowed. But who knows, rule changes could cover that.

Well you'd just tie them to the mast with a line that was just long enough to make it to the seat. Would have saved a few teams some heartache.

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Jimmy will add a speed-dial number to his phone for the local 24 hour "Dial-A-Prayer" service.

But seriously, they have very little time to not only make small modifications but also to test them.  Especially since it could all be over after next four races.

What really surprises me is that they should now, at this very late stage, have to brain-storm ways to improve the boat when I would have thought that any possible ideas and testing would already have been done. I would have expected them to already have developed the boat to almost it's maximum potential, so perhaps we are seeing the results of a hubristic mind-set in the Oracle camp where they really believed that they had covered all possible bases and were superior to the other teams.

Their lack of speed may also be a result of heading down a development path that can deliver no more, while ETNZ had to really think a bit more outside the box and it's paid off. I guess some confirmation of this is how they all laughed when we came up with cyclors, despite the very obvious advantages of using leg muscles instead of arm muscles.

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Its all on the foil control system and the wing trim system. For some reason, Oracle is missing the proper feedback loop that NZL has. So Oracle is having trouble making adjustments that have positive feedback. 

I doubt the foils are the difference here. The difference is entirely in the control of the foils and the wing. I wonder if NZL was able to integrate the two where foil adjustments auto adjust trim parameters in the foil adjustments. Whereas the oracle systems are independent. This is the only area they can improve.

 

Note this is exactly the situation they faces in SF. The angels and demons are in the control system details. Nothing else matters. I would not write off Oracle until we see the first race next week. We will know on the first 2 legs who will win the cup. And I am aghast that neither skipper provides the proper media response that the only reason they are so fast is because of the control systems. 

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I still can't believe that Slingsbys anal intruder is serious.

Still looks like some cheesy attempt at an aprils fools joke.

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1 minute ago, rgeek said:

I'd try changing the control set-up so that Slingsby has control of the foils and Jimmy it just steering. It's a stretch but it's doable in 5 days, particularly if they have already been working on it.

That appears to be one reason that ETNZ can get more stability out of less draggy foils. When BAR and now OR have stuck smaller foils on to try and get in the same ball park speed wise they have both had issues keeping the boat out of the water.

I agree. Control-wise, this, and possibly a game boy controller for Kyle to control the wing, are where I reckon they'll head. This will mean that Slingsby might need to stay on the Pedal station all around the course though rather than just the downwinds.

I think they might revisit the control systems in their wing too. From all reports there seems to be a lot going on inside the ETNZ wing. If OTUSA think that might be a point of difference then they might rip the skin off and upgrade some components in there.

.... and then they'll likely run out of oil during some key maneuver and put it in the piss. I think they'll make some gains, but don't think they'll find a silver bullet of boat speed like they did last time.

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7 minutes ago, rgeek said:

I'd try changing the control set-up so that Slingsby has control of the foils and Jimmy it just steering. It's a stretch but it's doable in 5 days, particularly if they have already been working on it.

That appears to be one reason that ETNZ can get more stability out of less draggy foils. When BAR and now OR have stuck smaller foils on to try and get in the same ball park speed wise they have both had issues keeping the boat out of the water.

Issue with this is they are already short on hydro so if Slingsby has to get off of his handles = less power.

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The laughing was not real on the cyclors.  Everyone in every team knew the moment they launched it was a huge advantage, it's just no other team had decided to investigate all the perceived handicaps of the solution.  The main one being the sailing teams were unlikely to vote themselves out of a job and would have come up with all sorts of reasons why it wouldn't work.

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1 minute ago, Sweetas said:

Issue with this is they are already short on hydro so if Slingsby has to get off of his handles = less power.

TS isn't actually doing a lot of pedaling and if they give him flight control there's a good chance he'll be more efficient.

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3 minutes ago, aucklander said:

The laughing was not real on the cyclors.  Everyone in every team knew the moment they launched it was a huge advantage, it's just no other team had decided to investigate all the perceived handicaps of the solution.  The main one being the sailing teams were unlikely to vote themselves out of a job and would have come up with all sorts of reasons why it wouldn't work.

"Cleats catching on the tramp" being the line from BAR, "Not enough of a difference when analysed" the line from OR.

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11 minutes ago, DeRosa said:

I agree. Control-wise, this, and possibly a game boy controller for Kyle to control the wing, are where I reckon they'll head. This will mean that Slingsby might need to stay on the Pedal station all around the course though rather than just the downwinds.

I think they might revisit the control systems in their wing too. From all reports there seems to be a lot going on inside the ETNZ wing. If OTUSA think that might be a point of difference then they might rip the skin off and upgrade some components in there.

.... and then they'll likely run out of oil during some key maneuver and put it in the piss. I think they'll make some gains, but don't think they'll find a silver bullet of boat speed like they did last time.

Bingo!! OR-XEROX can solve their problems by upgrading their hydraulic system - but they can't because they are limited in the HP from the coffee-grinders to drive it!!

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14 minutes ago, webdeveloper said:

Well you'd just tie them to the mast with a line that was just long enough to make it to the seat. Would have saved a few teams some heartache.

An actual issue to this solution is that the US doesn't have a remotely competent men's track cycling team to tie to the mast. We only sent one guy to the Rio games. 

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The polars from today (polar thread) actually had them quite VMG competitive on one tack, so they will probably just give up on the reaching compromise and go symmetric like ETNZ to better match their speed around the course.  They will also probably practice faster turns like ETNZ to preserve speed better. 

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1 minute ago, buoy said:

An actual issue to this solution is that the US doesn't have a remotely competent men's track cycling team to tie to the mast. We only sent one guy to the Rio games. 

Well that's just cos they do actual drugs testing there, unlike on the tours. Are they testing in Bermuda?

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Oracle will move bits around the table...

ETNZ will empty the rest of the sand out of the bags...

 

Massive lead then conserve boat at 80%... ETNZ still not at full crack

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The Rules of course !!!!

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43 minutes ago, rgeek said:

TS isn't actually doing a lot of pedaling and if they give him flight control there's a good chance he'll be more efficient.

What does TS pedaling do if not power hydros? 

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51 minutes ago, jaysper said:

I still can't believe that Slingsbys anal intruder is serious.

Still looks like some cheesy attempt at an aprils fools joke.

I just love the aero...

They're already worse aero substantially and boom lets make it even worse!

I do have a theory though, that it's so they don't have a camera behind Spithill looking into the cock-pic like TNZ. Thoughts?

Just heard the commentators say "we can't get that camera angle because of slingers position grinding at the rear!

What sly things could be hidden in that cockpit they're hiding?!

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ETNZ lost their two races to OR in the round robins due to ETNZ mistakes. OR lost both their races to ART. ETNZ was clearly faster than ART in their finals. Since OR knew this, they had some time to try to improve and failed. Don't see how they can succeed now.

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12 minutes ago, Indio said:

ETNZ will be onto the Measurement Committee to earn their keep!!

Wonder if there's some Oracle officials with instructions to put heat on the MC "You know your decisions decide the future of the Americas Cup right?"

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Cannot for the life of me see any major "hard" changes like Wing Control / Hydraulic Systems or pumps.... Appendages are pretty much locked in.....OR are faster than a month ago - the performance stuff put up by other posters & what I saw over the w/end there is not that much difference - has to comedown to stability & handling.....

So that leaves the "soft" changes..... Changing technique /  muscle memory in 5 days on how they handle the boat will be a big ask, stability control software like Tuke / Ashby use is possible, then you need time on the water........

Adaptability of the boat to the forecast weather slot...... Big question mark with the predicted higher winds for next week-end does OR have it? Won't be for the lack of trying thats for sure......

Gonna be real interesting.....B)

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13 minutes ago, ecsimonson said:

What does TS pedaling do if not power hydros? 

Scratchin his assistant on a post

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56 minutes ago, aucklander said:

The laughing was not real on the cyclors.  Everyone in every team knew the moment they launched it was a huge advantage, it's just no other team had decided to investigate all the perceived handicaps of the solution.  The main one being the sailing teams were unlikely to vote themselves out of a job and would have come up with all sorts of reasons why it wouldn't work.

Seems to me that a lot of the "improvements" to the LV/AC that are being promoted by His Royal Highness Russel and his (knighted) mates are all about bigger pay cheques for the sailors and more of them. They are cheapening the Cup to line their own pockets. 

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5 minutes ago, sclarke said:

Wonder if there's some Oracle officials with instructions to put heat on the MC "You know your decisions decide the future of the Americas Cup right?"

ETNZ are already keeping OR-XEROX on their toes :D

AC35Call15-page-001.thumb.jpg.7560e4bf8e78f81e4b2c6241c3ae48ed.jpg

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They'll modify their stance around legal proceedings : i.e. they'll start some against ETNZ. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Indio said:

ETNZ are already keeping OR-XEROX on their toes :D

AC35Call15-page-001.thumb.jpg.7560e4bf8e78f81e4b2c6241c3ae48ed.jpg

That's their only go at that now, isn't it?

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1 hour ago, Foyle said:

The polars from today (polar thread) actually had them quite VMG competitive on one tack, so they will probably just give up on the reaching compromise and go symmetric like ETNZ to better match their speed around the course.  They will also probably practice faster turns like ETNZ to preserve speed better. 

I saw that high VMG number, but also noticed that their TWA was about 9° better than ETNZ at the time. I think that was the difference

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39 minutes ago, ecsimonson said:

What does TS pedaling do if not power hydros? 

He spent most of his time up the front of the boat presumably trying to get more lift out of the rudders. He wasn't in a position to turn the pedals.

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There is a scheduled meeting between all the challengers and defenders and the majority vote will pass any changes. The proposal to be put to the meeting i:

Ëmirate team NZ must install a towbar on the aft of their boat and OTUSA have the right to connect to it so at least they can have close finishes".

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41 minutes ago, webdeveloper said:

That's their only go at that now, isn't it?

MC: "Ah, guys you're not allowed to do that"

Jimmy: "Mate, are you prepared to make that decision? Thats a big call, and those decisions can decide the future of the event. Are you prepared to make that call?" 

MC: "Okay mate, we'll let ya have that one" 

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What wull they change...

 

Easy!... just two things . 

1. the boat

2. the crew.

 

But seriously . .  OR have two obvious issues...

 foils = speed ... change foils

Foil control  =  fly time..  go cyclors

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they can tweak around the boat,

but that won't get them there.

they can change their tactics, but that won't make up for the speed difference. not even with an improved boat.

they can make crew changes, hire barker, or outerridge.

but it still won't be enough.

They can:

- Hope or make for more wind

- Hope ore make for a breakage at TNZ

- Other sabotage

- Accident to Pete Burling

- entire TNZ fall sick due to food poisoning.

 

OK, I'm not being serious here. But a lot is at stake. Let's see what's going to happen.

I can't wait to see how it will all end up!

 

 

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1 hour ago, TheDragon said:

ETNZ lost their two races to OR in the round robins due to ETNZ mistakes. OR lost both their races to ART. ETNZ was clearly faster than ART in their finals. Since OR knew this, they had some time to try to improve and failed. Don't see how they can succeed now.

Oracle have know for a long time they were slower then ETNZ in the light, probably since before ETNZ even left Auckland.

It was pretty obvious from Jimmy's more subdued tone as it became more and more apparent that it was going to be light for the first few days.

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boat speed might be okay if they get quicker during maneuvers. if usa won the start, they be able to fend off NZ

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so what is the forecast for next weekend?

I know it is still very early for reliable forecasts, but WTH?

 

 

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1 minute ago, High Flow said:

so what is the forecast for next weekend?

I know it is still very early for reliable forecasts, but WTH?

 

 

as it stands now -  6-7 gusts up to 9

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They could probably gain 0.5kts by deflating JS's ego by 50% so that it didn't cause so much drag. It must be a real headache having to drag that monstrous lump around the course.

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6 minutes ago, Munter said:

They could probably gain 0.5kts by deflating JS's ego by 50% so that it didn't cause so much drag. It must be a real headache having to drag that monstrous lump around the course.

at least 0.5kts. maybe even more...

shoud try with barker or outerridge instead. I'm not a fan of barker  (why?) but JS should move to sales instead of sails.

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It is not much that they can do now with regards to big redesigns. If they did not have it in the pipeline since months it is way to late now.

  • Update foils and rudders? How? They have been doing the research and testing for years. If they did not find any faster solutions during the last 3 years they will not be able to design manufacture, test and learn how to use in one week and I guess that they are not allowed to have another set of foils.
  • Wing. Limited things that they can do. Same thing as above. If they did not manage during the last years its way to late. Any updates has to be designed, manufactured, installed, tested and optimized.
  • Control system of foils and wing. A bit to late now. Same as above.
  • Cyclores. Way to late. Even if they could bolt on ETNZ system they do not know how to optimize and use it. How many sailing days does ETNZ have with there cyclors? they are still learning and Improving.
  • Crew change. Nice idea but who can jump into a new very complicated boat and do a better job then JS.To late.
  • Weight savings? They would be stupide and terrible bad designers if they are not on minimum weight at this moment.
  • Boat number two. In which way would that help. Not at all.

What they can do is small tweaks, improve there sailing and learn how to use there equipment to 100% like they did in 2013, improve there tactics and how for better weather condition.

 

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4 hours ago, Tornado-Cat said:

JS said everything was on the table, what shall we see next weekend ?

What we will not see:

- cyclors, it would take too long to train them

- completely new foils in carbon, it would take too long to make them

 

What we may see:

- better crew aero, must be pretty easy to do

- modified foils with metal using the 10% rule or the 30% if they can still use it.

- modified rudders with less drag and more stability during tacks

- Different controls, the wheel controlled by JS would be complemented by another crew dedicated to the control of the altitude of the platform at the cm. If you look at tnz, they control the bow at about 30 cm above the water.

- Enhanced reality like probably TNZ, computers calcule the ideal position of the boat, a human does it in order to be prot compliant

- Modification of the wing, but that will be hard to see.

What is you guess ?

 

 

Am clue less, but simple is best to me. As you note, either complete change will take too long. Any change will take accommodation. So, what is simplest, modify foils in some way?

In 5 days, even cheating might be tall order. For me, the fun is the making. I watch, wonder, watch someone get "out-teched" perhaps...c'est la vie!

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i think the difference here is that in 34, oracle had a big crash wrote off a boat and were a little late in there program meaning they still hadn't reached their capacity.  

They can't say the same this time, they are well prepared and wanting for nothing so its hard to see where the capacity will come from.  

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Hamster Wheel positioned close to the forward beam designed by Dyson Fans to generate extra pressure into the wing .........

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34 minutes ago, starlyte said:

boat speed might be okay if they get quicker during maneuvers. if usa won the start, they be able to fend off NZ

that happened once for art, that they held them off from start to finish.  its hard graft and not a 2 outa 3 game.  

ETNZ need 4/11

 

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4 minutes ago, Qman said:

that happened once for art, that they held them off from start to finish.  its hard graft and not a 2 outa 3 game.  

ETNZ need 4/11

 

good point, ART sailed a perfect race and that was the only way they held off NZ

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3 hours ago, ipexnet said:

Note this is exactly the situation they faces in SF. ...

Good post but this is an entirely different situation. In SF Oracle had the faster boat from the moment the Class Rule changed to allow them to foil, that's not the case here.

14 minutes ago, vij said:

...If they did not have it in the pipeline since months it is way to late now....

Yup.

They can now make only incremental changes to boat speed and perhaps significant changes to how they drive the boat but that's all.

Unless of course they have something non-Class Rule compliant that they can pull out and have the Class Rule changed in their favour as per AC34... 

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If lack of oil continues to be a problem, Oracle will juice their grinders.

They are proven cheats after all. . .  and if you think that JS & RC had no idea why their "one design" pre AC34 warm up series boat was so fast upwind, then it's time for a warm bottle & an afternoon nap with the tooth fairy. . .

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6 minutes ago, Watcher said:

If lack of oil continues to be a problem, Oracle will juice their grinders.

They are proven cheats after all. . .  and if you think that JS & RC had no idea why their "one design" pre AC34 warm up series boat was so fast upwind, then it's time for a warm bottle & an afternoon nap with the tooth fairy. . .

wonder if they are drug tested like olympic athletes. 

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They will completely change the rules within those 5 days and bring out a prefabricated new boat for those rules ;)

Can't rule out.

Cyclors could be a possibility if even untrained ppl produce more power but I think they'd have tried it between Challenger series & now if they were going to do it.

 

Quote

NZ have been bow down and were pulling donuts on the harbour in front of Okahu Bay for everyone to see, including OR spyboats

My recollection is ETNZ were less bow down, higher leeward hull & vealheel vs the BDA 5 sailing flat, low & bow down.

 

Quote

Can you imagine driving a car with the accellerator in the 10 and 2 position on your steering wheel?

Ever rode a motorcycle?

 

The idea of dropping 25% of the grinder power to give Slingsby foil trim (which btw would remove his ability to scan for wind/tactics which is supposed to be OR afterguard advantage) is frankly laughable.

 

Quote

I do have a theory though, that it's so they don't have a camera behind Spithill looking into the cock-pic like TNZ. Thoughts?

Parrot cam is on the shoulder. Conveniently PB & Gashbys looked down at the cockpit while Jimmys one was facing his ear & the wing.

I'm curious whether OR will have full race recordings from them and the 360deg-wing-trim-lessons-from-Gashby cam?

Even if ETNZ has access to the OR ones who has most to gain from it?

 

Quote

ETNZ are already keeping OR-XEROX on their toes :D

In the abandoned race vs Art the ETNZ crew up there had his hands touching past the line, was half expecting to see a penalty or shit getting crazy if ETNZ had managed to get to the finish in time.

 

Quote

- entire TNZ fall sick due to food poisoning.

You wash your damn mouth out! (keyboard hands?)

 

Quote

ETNZ lost their two races to OR in the round robins due to ETNZ mistakes. OR lost both their races to ART. ETNZ was clearly faster than ART in their finals. Since OR knew this, they had some time to try to improve and failed. Don't see how they can succeed now.

Indeed.

I could believe there are some long order items on the way if OR sensed the threat & had a solution but I think we'd have seen a very different Jimmy at the pressers if that was the case.

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3 hours ago, aucklander said:

The laughing was not real on the cyclors.  Everyone in every team knew the moment they launched it was a huge advantage, it's just no other team had decided to investigate all the perceived handicaps of the solution.  The main one being the sailing teams were unlikely to vote themselves out of a job and would have come up with all sorts of reasons why it wouldn't work.

+1 True dat. Vested interests prevented them from thinking outside the box. All of them, except ETNZ.

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2 hours ago, webdeveloper said:

That's their only go at that now, isn't it?

No, it wasn't a CnC complaint. They just sought an answer from the umpires...

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Just now, Sailbydate said:

+1 True dat. Vested interests prevented them from thinking outside the box. All of them, except ETNZ.

and olympic rowers and cyclist are much cheaper to pay than AC sailors 

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On the (frankly ridiculous) subject of food poisoning - does anyone know what ETNZ's plan is in the eventuality that any one of Tuke, Ashby or Burling is taken extremely (unraceably) ill?

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I think too, that OTUSA believed they were on top of the foiling game - coming out of AC34 and "the greatest comeback in sporting history". 

Did that prevent them from looking for more - for the next big leap?

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4 hours ago, jaysper said:

I still can't believe that Slingsbys anal intruder is serious.

Still looks like some cheesy attempt at an aprils fools joke.

Same. My wife watching this morning was like wtf is that guy doing - looks like he's riding a penny farthing. Wonder what their designers must think. Surely they are embarrassed that after so much time and money they end up with that cluster fuck of a set up

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does anyone know what ETNZ's plan is in the eventuality that any one of Tuke, Ashby or Burling is taken extremely (unraceably) ill?

I think any 1 of them would probably be ok, 2 or all 3 best hope not.

I wonder if they have big burly bodyguards with them when they leave the base/team accomodation?

Chances very high they'll only be eating from the team cafeteria.

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8 minutes ago, KoW said:

On the (frankly ridiculous) subject of food poisoning - does anyone know what ETNZ's plan is in the eventuality that any one of Tuke, Ashby or Burling is taken extremely (unraceably) ill?

True. Hadn't thought about that!

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5 minutes ago, 1eyedkiwi said:

Same. My wife watching this morning was like wtf is that guy doing - looks like he's riding a penny farthing. Wonder what their designers must think. Surely they are embarrassed that after so much time and money they end up with that cluster fuck of a set up

it's for aerodynamics, a lot like a unicyclist

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6 minutes ago, 1eyedkiwi said:

Same. My wife watching this morning was like wtf is that guy doing - looks like he's riding a penny farthing. Wonder what their designers must think. Surely they are embarrassed that after so much time and money they end up with that cluster fuck of a set up

Makes me wonder if orifice are sandbagging. Can they really have fucked things up this badly?

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18 minutes ago, hoom said:

 

I could believe there are some long order items on the way if OR sensed the threat & had a solution but I think we'd have seen a very different Jimmy at the pressers if that was the case.

Yeah I thought the same thing. "Everything's on the table" is another way of saying we don't have a bloody clue what we can do. 

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12 minutes ago, hoom said:

I think any 1 of them would probably be ok, 2 or all 3 best hope not.

I wonder if they have big burly bodyguards with them when they leave the base/team accomodation?

Chances very high they'll only be eating from the team cafeteria.

Maybe the Thundercats now need to make the crossing in convoy?

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3 minutes ago, jaysper said:

Makes me wonder if orifice are sandbagging. Can they really have fucked things up this badly?

yeah, i don't get it, how can they be that slow? they have had years to prepare, only beat ETNZ in the RR's due to mistakes

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^ Better watch out for limpet turtles.

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Just now, jaysper said:

Makes me wonder if orifice are sandbagging. Can they really have fucked things up this badly?

I doubt it. Super risky to purposely lose 4 races in the match - surely?  OR could have a gear failure in the next race and suddenly be down 5-0.

I am hoping the more likely explanation is they were desperate. They figured out a while ago how much potential our set up had and realised they needed to do the best they could to copy it knowing that it was too late even back then to fully change. 

One thing is for certain - it'll all become clear this weekend. All cards will be played. 

The commentators were right this morning - it doesn't matter who had the fastest boat in the first 2 days - whoever has the fastest boat this weekend will win the cup. That first race this weekend will be nerve racking!

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2 minutes ago, 1eyedkiwi said:

I doubt it. Super risky to purposely lose 4 races in the match - surely?  OR could have a gear failure in the next race and suddenly be down 5-0.

I am hoping the more likely explanation is they were desperate. They figured out a while ago how much potential our set up had and realised they needed to do the best they could to copy it knowing that it was too late even back then to fully change. 

One thing is for certain - it'll all become clear this weekend. All cards will be played. 

The commentators were right this morning - it doesn't matter who had the fastest boat in the first 2 days - whoever has the fastest boat this weekend will win the cup. That first race this weekend will be nerve racking!

Or not.

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Any changes they make over the next five days could well have been in the pipeline for months. Take the cyclos for example - surely when Oracle saw the ETNZ solution last year, they must have gone back to their 'dismissed' study and looked at it in a new light once they has seen how another team had solved what they originally concluded was a show stopper.  They could have had a prototype in a shed with cyclos practicing on some form of simulator for months.  The prep work for any changes to the boat could have been going on in the shed at night for some time.

if we're talking changes to Oracle, what about the crew. Has Jimmiy sailed his last AC race?

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Just now, Sailbydate said:

Or not.

I meant before hand - but yes...I hope after race 1 to be left with the feeling that we are witnessing a repeat of the 1995 demolition.

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There was an issue about how slack was slack as far as rig tension was concerned a few days ago. Sailworld mentioned it. Oracle got the measurers to change their mind. I understand it is fairly controvertial. I wouldn't be surprised if that pops up.

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Nah, MIHBDA posted a vid showing ETNZ getting measured with slack inners so I think both teams agreed that slack inners is OK.

 

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12 minutes ago, iorangi said:

There was an issue about how slack was slack as far as rig tension was concerned a few days ago. Sailworld mentioned it. Oracle got the measurers to change their mind. I understand it is fairly controvertial. I wouldn't be surprised if that pops up.

I'm sure you're right. In fact, I'll bet there are all sorts of questions asked about legalities. As JS said, it's all on the table.

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the maths start to get interesting.  

4/11 win one more it becomes 3/10 (better than 1in three races) It quickly slips away for oracle. 

artemis needed a perfect race to take one off ETNZ.  

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Compared to ETNZ Oriface looks sloppily crewed and almost amateur in systems design.

Sharpening up the crew work and tweaking the foils is not going to stop them being toast.

The Kiwi flyer is a lot closer to becoming a far more complete performance package in comparison.

These cats are very intricately constructed complex structures and all elements must perform in reliable synchronicity, just like a plane.

Oriface needs a major rethink/rebuild and 5 days is going to dance by in a flash.

I wish them all the very best.

Yeah nah.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

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5 hours ago, rgeek said:

"Cleats catching on the tramp" being the line from BAR, "Not enough of a difference when analysed" the line from OR.

Being involved in Engineering R&D, it's this type of cursory dismissal of compelling ideas that really grates me. 

It is prevalent in a lot of organisations where people don't want to think too hard, or go on a tangent that is not proven / guaranteed and might end up making them look bad.

People defend and justify this by highlighting and magnifying  small obstacles as show stoppers. 

This kind of thinking... should... have no place in AC Syndicates. The leg power advantage is so compelling that ALL syndicates R&D teams looked into it, yet dismissed it.

All those Design Teams bar ETNZ failed in their jobs.

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i think all the smart people thought when ETNZ brought out Cyclors... it was only a matter of time before OR-XEROX copied it. All the dumb people who rejected it... will be eating their pie come Sunday arvo!

 

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If any team can pull a rabbit from the hat OR can, but ETNZ will be trying just as hard in the 5 days to gain further speed edges. 

Oracles best hope is for a few days of moderate to higher winds which were the conditions where they bested ETNZ twice. I was quite happy to see OR win these, as if ETNZ had gone through  RR undefeated, OR skunk-works would have been in overdrive a lot longer. 

This hill is a lot harder to climb than AC34 as Oracle enabled a "state change" of foiling to windward that created massive speed gain. 

I don't think there are any such silver bullets on the table, apart from matching & beating ETNZ in the development race, chancing on higher winds, or damage / catastrophic failure of the kiwi boat. 

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1 hour ago, Qman said:

the maths start to get interesting.  

4/11 win one more it becomes 3/10 (better than 1in three races) It quickly slips away for oracle. 

artemis needed a perfect race to take one off ETNZ.  

I'd be really really cautious about using mathematics in this way......it was the same logic that led everyone to think NZ could not possibly lose last time when it was 8-1.

4 years ago I exchanged comments on here with someone (Hoom I think) at 7-1 where it was obvious we were no longer the faster boat, only Hoom and I stepped outside of the NZ joy bubble - it was clear at the time that OR were getting faster, and faster than NZ were getting faster.  Once that tipping point takes place, it doesn't matter how many points you have on the board, if the faster boat is in the wind range and is sailed well, it will keep on winning.  It's like racing Ussain Bolt for a few days after he's buggered his ankle.  Sure, you can beat him for the first week, then every single race will go against you  - no matter how many you have on the board......

Having said that - the patterns are different to 2013.  OR are, in this breeze, not going to catch NZ.  We shall see in other wind ranges, but they are lethal and unstoppable in this amount of puff.

GO ETNZ!

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Of course Oracle have an ace up their sleeves, we all know it.

They're going to put Lance Armstrong inside their wing. No need to doubt me, I know pretty much everything.

 

OraclesNewWing3.jpg

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5 minutes ago, aucklander said:

I'd be really really cautious about using mathematics in this way......it was the same logic that led everyone to think NZ could not possibly lose last time when it was 8-1.

4 years ago I exchanged comments on here with someone (Hoom I think) at 7-1 where it was obvious we were no longer the faster boat, only Hoom and I stepped outside of the NZ joy bubble - it was clear at the time that OR were getting faster, and faster than NZ were getting faster.  Once that tipping point takes place, it doesn't matter how many points you have on the board, if the faster boat is in the wind range and is sailed well, it will keep on winning.  It's like racing Ussain Bolt for a few days after he's buggered his ankle.  Sure, you can beat him for the first week, then every single race will go against you  - no matter how many you have on the board......

Having said that - the patterns are different to 2003.  OR are, in this breeze, not going to catch NZ.  We shall see in other wind ranges, but they are lethal and unstoppable in this amount of puff.

GO ETNZ!

Good analysis and comment, AKLDer

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