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    • UnderDawg

      A Few Simple Rules   05/22/2017

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Tornado-Cat

What will Oracle modify during these 5 days to try to recover

899 posts in this topic

There is also time...

Not just 5 days to a start, but to the brink, as it was.

"The greatest show on Earth!"

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There was a graphic yesterday of the BAR boat moving at 600kts. I wonder where BA is at the moment? Surely LE can change the rules to get BA back on the American (sic) boat.

It would be nice for ETNZ to fuck him over again, at the same time as JS & TS.

 

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2 hours ago, 1eyedkiwi said:

Yeah I thought the same thing. "Everything's on the table" is another way of saying we don't have a bloody clue what we can do. 

No, it's a diplomatic way of saying crew positions (including his) are up for grabs.

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18 minutes ago, aucklander said:

I'd be really really cautious about using mathematics in this way......it was the same logic that led everyone to think NZ could not possibly lose last time when it was 8-1.

4 years ago I exchanged comments on here with someone (Hoom I think) at 7-1 where it was obvious we were no longer the faster boat, only Hoom and I stepped outside of the NZ joy bubble - it was clear at the time that OR were getting faster, and faster than NZ were getting faster.  Once that tipping point takes place, it doesn't matter how many points you have on the board, if the faster boat is in the wind range and is sailed well, it will keep on winning.  It's like racing Ussain Bolt for a few days after he's buggered his ankle.  Sure, you can beat him for the first week, then every single race will go against you  - no matter how many you have on the board......

Having said that - the patterns are different to 2013.  OR are, in this breeze, not going to catch NZ.  We shall see in other wind ranges, but they are lethal and unstoppable in this amount of puff.

GO ETNZ!

Brilliant analysis from Auckland!!! So Oracle need Herbie 2 to win?

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So BAR knew they were slow since before the qualifiers even started. They had 2 points in the bank and made it through to the semis just. Although they improved alot they were never going to catch up to the pace of ETNZ. They had 2 weeks to improve?? but still ran out of time. 

OR chances lie with the weather gods I think. They could possibly match ETNZ in more breeze (purely because ETNZ haven't sailed alot in the breeze). If it's light then it'll be over for OR and the Cup will be on its way to God's Own. 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Mudz said:

If it's light then it'll be over for OR and the Cup will be on its way to God's Own. 

Wow. What tantalising prospect! Could we dare to believe, after AC34?

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Based on the scant evidence available it looks like BAR may have got stuck in a fixed mind set.

Their response looks to have been to try and work out how to use smaller foils in the lower wind range and take the long odds that the wind might pick up. Looked like OR did the same thing yesterday?

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4 years ago I exchanged comments on here with someone (Hoom I think) at 7-1 where it was obvious we were no longer the faster boat, only Hoom and I stepped outside of the NZ joy bubble - it was clear at the time that OR were getting faster, and faster than NZ were getting faster.

Yep, back then OR showed scary speed for periods right from the start & had the lead several times but the races wound up going to ETNZ by fairly big margins.

Not only us but Jimmy was outside that bubble.

They kept hitting those scary speeds longer & more frequently as the series continued.

 

This time I don't see that, OR are clearly outmatched for speed & height in the conditions we've seen and Jimmy knows it.

So far the closest to a lead they've had was half a boatlength round the outside of the first reach mark & immediately lost it to ETNZ sailing lower & faster.

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6 hours ago, buoy said:

An actual issue to this solution is that the US doesn't have a remotely competent men's track cycling team to tie to the mast. We only sent one guy to the Rio games. 

It would take way more than the five days available to retrain the crew as cyclors. Could see the first time ever in the AC that a boat pulled out of a race due to cramp.

Training up a whole new crew of specialist cyclists to pump oil AND hang on to the boat through tacks and gybes would take even longer. ETNZ's cyclors have been specifically training for their roles for more than 18 months.

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4 hours ago, starlyte said:

boat speed might be okay if they get quicker during maneuvers. if usa won the start, they be able to fend off NZ

Sure ... I would really like to see that tacking duel ....

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20 minutes ago, Last Post said:

..Could see the first time ever in the AC that a boat pulled out of a race due to cramp.

 

Hahaha!! That's hilarious...:D

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9 minutes ago, Last Post said:

It would take way more than the five days available to retrain the crew as cyclors. Could see the first time ever in the AC that a boat pulled out of a race due to cramp.

Training up a whole new crew of specialist cyclists to pump oil AND hang on to the boat through tacks and gybes would take even longer. ETNZ's cyclors have been specifically training for their roles for more than 18 months.

I don't agree. Baring some form of disability anyone can put out more power with their legs than arms; and most of those guys will have spent some time cross training on bikes anyway. Just go to a gym and have a go on the watt bike / grinders to see the numbers for yourself. 

You don't have to be olympic level for cyclors to work better, you don't have to be highly trained for it to work either. However, once you've made the decision to go down that route like NZL did then it makes sense to train and push it as far as it will go. But the gain is in using legs versus arms, training on top of that is marginal in comparison. 

But, oracle have known this for a while now, and didn't implement it fully between the qualifiers and the cup, so I can't see them doing it now. There must be a more fundamental problem about altering the internal workings and hydraulics that is possibly preventing them. 

I think any improvement to win the cup now will be from a small mod coupled with a change in sailing mode that allow them to access another gear from practically the same equipment. 

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Judging by the look in Spithill's eyes, doesn't look like they have anything left to develop within the rules set.  And I'm not sure there is much scope left to cheat at this stage.

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I am curious: why is everyone of the opinion that OTUSA cannot build new dagger boards ?

Because someone has stated that it will take 3 months? What's the truth there - maybe that can be challenged!

My question would rather be: Can they get new dagger boards anyway, or have the already used their limit of allowed ones?

Would they be allowed to purchase ones that are not in use any longer (Artemis ones perhaps) and just make them fit their boat?

Looking back to 2013 I just feel uneasy to just exclude possibilities because someone believes it could not be done ....

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6 minutes ago, E2nO said:

I am curious: why is everyone of the opinion that OTUSA cannot build new dagger boards ?

Because someone has stated that it will take 3 months? What's the truth there - maybe that can be challenged!

My question would rather be: Can they get new dagger boards anyway, or have the already used their limit of allowed ones?

Would they be allowed to purchase ones that are not in use any longer (Artemis ones perhaps) and just make them fit their boat?

Looking back to 2013 I just feel uneasy to just exclude possibilities because someone believes it could not be done ....

The Class Rules are your friend. OR-XEROX can't get any more daggerboards because the Class Rules say so.

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I don't believe the three months to build a set of boards. Beyond limitations such as curing times for resin and class measurement rules; if you pay enough money then it can be done. 

The issue is, if they build a new board, what will it look like? That would assume they already know what large changes they need to make. 

Any then if you make a large change to you boards there is a risk of the unknown; will it work in your system at all? The same can be said for just buying some one else foils.

I think any change will be small physically, or even could be technique change. Identified by the data guys. Something that will enable them to access a new mode. 

I was surprised that oracle spent the time during the finals practicing starts with japan. Surely with the benefits of an almost identical boat is that you can practice mode changing, look at wing and foils setting etc? Plus, pre-start tactics is a hugely individual thing, sending 5 days making sure you've got the measure of Dean Barker and his style, does not ensure you'll have the measure of Peter Burling; whereas boat speed is transferable whoever you race.  

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There is one nagging doubt I have about OR - it would be hugely risky strategy for them and I don't think it's true, but it's still a ~5% chance.  

Are they doing an audacious rope-a-dope?

Planned all along, and cleverly and strategically utilizing the known 5 day mods window, they have hidden speed additions they KNOW they can tap into.  By losing these first races, they know how much of the hidden shed improvements they can utilize, and they lull NZ into taking a more conservative mods approach in the 5 day window.  Then bang, when it's 2 or 3 races a day after this next weekend, there is literally no time for changes to take place on NZ and OR have it sewn up.

It fits with a number of things, Jimmy's attitude in particular.  It's in the highly unlikely basket.... but crazy shit has happened in the AC

  • A boat has been flown over the alps under a helicopter
  • the 5 favourite sportsman of NZ defected en masse to switzerland
  • OR came from 8-1 down.....
  • Larry built a 90 foot boat with a 747 wing
  • even the Australians won it once

OK - I'll get my coat and leave the room  :)

Go ETNZ!

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19 minutes ago, E2nO said:

I am curious: why is everyone of the opinion that OTUSA cannot build new dagger boards ?

Because someone has stated that it will take 3 months? What's the truth there - maybe that can be challenged!

My question would rather be: Can they get new dagger boards anyway, or have the already used their limit of allowed ones?

Would they be allowed to purchase ones that are not in use any longer (Artemis ones perhaps) and just make them fit their boat?

Looking back to 2013 I just feel uneasy to just exclude possibilities because someone believes it could not be done ....

Some truth to the above.

Also, mods to current daggers are possible.

It is an issue of pragmatic ends...and the Yanks are supposed to be a pragmatic crew generally, even developed a branch of philosophy "Pragmatism!" Greatest 'show' on Earth!"

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5 minutes ago, aucklander said:

There is one nagging doubt I have about OR - it would be hugely risky strategy for them and I don't think it's true, but it's still a ~5% chance.  

Are they doing an audacious rope-a-dope?

Planned all along, and cleverly and strategically utilizing the known 5 day mods window, they have hidden speed additions they KNOW they can tap into.  By losing these first races, they know how much of the hidden shed improvements they can utilize, and they lull NZ into taking a more conservative mods approach in the 5 day window.  Then bang, when it's 2 or 3 races a day after this next weekend, there is literally no time for changes to take place on NZ and OR have it sewn up.

It fits with a number of things, Jimmy's attitude in particular.  It's in the highly unlikely basket.... but crazy shit has happened in the AC

  • A boat has been flown over the alps under a helicopter
  • the 5 favourite sportsman of NZ defected en masse to switzerland
  • OR came from 8-1 down.....
  • Larry built a 90 foot boat with a 747 wing
  • even the Australians won it once

OK - I'll get my coat and leave the room  :)

Go ETNZ!

In the immortal words of Blackadder, such a plan would be so cunning they can put a tail on it and call it a weasel!!

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I'd be more concerned about  ORTUSA improving their tactics and boat handling in these 5 days (soon to be 4, in my part of the world).  I've viewed the pre-start of Race 4 at least 3 times, and I cannot understand why JS didn't go for the hook.  Sure, there was 1 minute to the gun, but still, at least hooking ETNZ would've put the pre-start more in the control of ORTUSA.

JS will come out swinging, come Race 5.  If he doesn't, and ETNZ smoke them again from Mark 1 down to Gate 2 and then back upwind, then ORTUSA are toast and the Cup is heading back down to Auckland.  I really, really think that RC and JS have underestimated the Kiwis.  They (arrogantly) dismissed the Cyclors, and that's now come back to bite them.

In terms of what they can change on the boat, let me break the possibilities down by area:

Foils and rudders: I honestly don't think that they've got any revolutionary foils left in their box of toys.  In addition to this, changing the foils by 10% is possible, but by 30% given the time they've got left?  No ways.  Chris Draper or Nathan Outteridge says that it takes 3 months to manufacture a foil.  30% of 3 months is roughly 27 days.  Even if they work flat out 24 hours a day, I don't see that happening.  I haven't included design time for the 30% changes, as surely that will be a factor.

ORTUSA might put on different rudders, but wouldn't those be dictated by the wind conditions?  They'd be taking a huge gamble here.

Wing controls: ORTUSA could introduce some amazing upgrades to their wing control system, but again, they'd be taking another huge gamble here as they'd need to do decent amounts of testing, let alone design.  Is 5 days sufficient for testing to see if version 2.0 of the wing control system really is better than what they have now?  I don't think so.

The crew: Other than their grinders, what other substitutions can they make to improve their current situation?  Do they dare take TS off the boat?  If so, who would they substitute him with?  Who else can helm if RC decides to take JS off?  Their options in the crew rotation might be even more restricted than the above options.

Software: This area is a black box for me, and I suspect, a few others on this forum, but let's give this some brief analysis.  Other than the software to tell them where the start line is, and the boundaries, etc., do they even remotely have anything about predicting wind shifts?  I forget which edition of the AC it was (it could've been AC31 in Auckland), but I seem to remember that Oracle (skippered by Chris Dickson) had a device nicknamed the "Goose".  Speculation was rife that this device could predict wind shifts (I don't know how accurately, though).  On a restricted course, the Goose might be even more accurate, but again, it's a huge risk.  JS doesn't strike me as being a helmsman who'll immediately start listening to a device.  He's more a sail (fly?) by the seat of your pants guy.

ORTUSA introducing their own cyclors: It's one thing to add a single cycle seat on to your boat, but another 3 of them?  Wouldn't they need different systems for something like this, and cannot retrofit this in?  Also, I've looked closely at TS on both days of the AC match, and he doesn't do a lot of cycling.  My gut feeling is that this is a mind game that ORTUSA are continuing to perpetuate.  ETNZ couldn't care less.

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1 hour ago, d2ba said:

Maybe New York Supreme Court will play a part in this Americas Cup --some controversy might happen ,we just don't know.

Legal action is my biggest concern too - AC rules violation claims, new rules changes (remember the San Fran Coast Guard 'safety' issue?), endless measurement certificate challenges, etc.

Also, knowing the Oracle syndicate has a proven history if intentional cheating in this event, for which they've been punished before, that's definitely on the cards again - how can it not be? Desperate times demand desperate measures - for example, if they've known of a cheat that would really really help, but have not implemented it because they didn't think it would be necessary, they now may decide it's necessary.

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JS to the bench, TS to helm along with tactics... 

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2 hours ago, aucklander said:

There is one nagging doubt I have about OR - it would be hugely risky strategy for them and I don't think it's true, but it's still a ~5% chance.  

Are they doing an audacious rope-a-dope?

Planned all along, and cleverly and strategically utilizing the known 5 day mods window, they have hidden speed additions they KNOW they can tap into.  By losing these first races, they know how much of the hidden shed improvements they can utilize, and they lull NZ into taking a more conservative mods approach in the 5 day window.  Then bang, when it's 2 or 3 races a day after this next weekend, there is literally no time for changes to take place on NZ and OR have it sewn up.

It fits with a number of things, Jimmy's attitude in particular.  It's in the highly unlikely basket.... but crazy shit has happened in the AC

  • A boat has been flown over the alps under a helicopter
  • the 5 favourite sportsman of NZ defected en masse to switzerland
  • OR came from 8-1 down.....
  • Larry built a 90 foot boat with a 747 wing
  • even the Australians won it once

OK - I'll get my coat and leave the room  :)

Go ETNZ!

Something close to this. As you say, it would explain Jimmy's attitude. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a game being played and OR won the first race next weekend and has somehow outfoxed us all. If the weather continues like this ETNZ could win it in straight races. That's a catastrophic outcome for OR. Humiliating. So last weekend might have been the mother of all sandbags. 

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Jimmy will be breathing down the backs of the TNZ crew 100% of the time from here on out

they acquired an off the shelf product that will guarantee it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ready ??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Image result for 2" trailer hitch

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ORACLE's Embedded  KIWI Spy's found to be celebrating during this time of Gloom and Unmitigated Failure

Causing concern about their Loyalty to Money offered for information about TNZ's Secrets

 

the Spy's appear to have spent the money acquiring a lease on the former location of The LOADED HOG  

and have expressed interest in sponsoring the return of DA-WOODY for the Defense in 2020

here they are after watching the presser after race 4 in Bermuda  

 teletibbies-title.jpg

 

 

 

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If you look closely on OR you can see there's a loose nut on the steering wheel. Get rid of that nut,  put DB on the wheel, NO on tactics and stop dumping the boat in the water. Voila! Comeback 2017. 

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The smart thing for Team Oracle to do at this point would be to ease up, relax and spend the remainder of their budget on hookers, blow and booze.  LE is going to fire them all in a week anyway, there is no way for them to bridge the performance gap to win 70% of remaining races, their designers reps are screwed, their sailors can't salvage it, so might as well have some fun in the meantime.

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4 hours ago, Mudz said:

.... and the Cup will be on its way to God's Own. 

 

Wow, never thought ETNZ would defend in Wales.

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13 minutes ago, Foyle said:

The smart thing for Team Oracle to do at this point would be to ease up, relax and spend the remainder of their budget on hookers, blow and booze.  LE is going to fire them all in a week anyway, there is no way for them to bridge the performance gap to win 70% of remaining races, their designers reps are screwed, their sailors can't salvage it, so might as well have some fun in the meantime.

Pretty much, at least, try to bait NZ into some sort of maneuver deals, although I think NZ is sailing their boat better than OR. Why split at the downwind gate? Costs them an extra move and the wrong side of the course.

 

Of course, it's possible that the grinders can't keep up with the peddlers in any duel at all...

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Oracle: SF vs Bermuda

 

San Francisco

Jimmy was dialed in on starts and seemed to own Dean at that point

Two crews, which enabled them to bench Kostecki and put in Ainslie

They had a true two boat campaign model, which is a very different development model.

 

Bermuda

Jimmy is not dominate on the starts

They are limited in their ability to change the afterguard

As of this point they are a single boat campaign they have missed out on true testing while racing.

 

Known Issues

1. They need to adjust responsibilities the afterguard is taking away from the powertrain and not capitalizing on opportunity.

2. Their light wind package needs improvement. At this point it’s worth the risk to mod those foils and rudders.

3. Any other changes need to be low hanging fruit. It unknown how they compare in the upper wind range, but it’s clear their first issue will give them improvement across the board.

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Image may contain: 1 person, text

 

 

I did a Google Face Expression Recognition Search and it came back with .

 

 

 

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Does anyone else think it looks clumsy and amateurish for Jimmy to have to take the wing-sheet (as well as continue steering, flight adjustment, etc) every time the wing trimmer has to get up and cross the boat before a tack?

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24 minutes ago, laser 173312 said:

Wow, never thought ETNZ would defend in Wales.

Err no mate - that is the Whitsundays

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Back when ETNZ were first foiling 100% around a track in NZ the Oracle guys didn't believe it until a video was sent. Slingo arrived 2 days later.

I think this time the team culture that has done them in. The inwardly looking "we know best/are the smartest" has lost it for them.

Last time they were behind and they kept improving and won. This time (as has been pointed out) they have known for sometime how fast ETNZ is - and how ETNZ lost the earlier match ups rather than O comprehensively winning them. They have been trying to make it go faster, and it is but not fast enough. They know it and to give Jimmy credit his public pronouncements that i've heard have been respectful.

Someone the other day said O had an evolutionary boat, NZ a revolutionary boat.

We all know that not all revolutions succeed but this one looks promising. Go ETNZ!

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Backseat...it all began with Duh-bya Bush, stopped for a bit, and now the slippery-slope gets wetter and wetter.

If it were not so sad, it is fun to watch...and that extends to moneyball sailing. Someone above alluded to the tech the AC evolves.

Yes, that is so, but when the tech stuff "trumps" tactics and skills...foils, -ware, helmet or not, it sucks as sailing, but that is just MHO! I like the creakers for the sailing...not the speed.

I would not mind a venue change!

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Do we have some SAers in BDA, Jason perhaps, that could take pictures every day of OTUSA going out and coming back.

A good lense and hig resolution would be appreciated, and focus on eveything, but in particular the foils, rudders, wing, crew position.

I am sure TNZ is doing the same thing.

WE NEED SOME SPIES NOW  and that will be the most interesting thread of the AC during 5 days.

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2 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

Do we have some SAers in BDA, Jason perhaps, that could take pictures every day of OTUSA going out and coming back.

A good lense and hig resolution would be appreciated, and focus on eveything, but in particular the foils, rudders, wing, crew position.

I am sure TNZ is doing the same thing.

WE NEED SOME SPIES NOW  and that will be the most interesting thread of the AC during 5 days.

A bit of Miracle Swill too, I venture to suggest!

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People are saying ETNZ are sailing upwind like AC34, as in bigger angle than OR, right? So.... OR just sail upwind like TNZ and... oh shit.

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7 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

Do we have some SAers in BDA, Jason perhaps, that could take pictures every day of OTUSA going out and coming back.

A good lense and hig resolution would be appreciated, and focus on eveything, but in particular the foils, rudders, wing, crew position.

I am sure TNZ is doing the same thing.

WE NEED SOME SPIES NOW  and that will be the most interesting thread of the AC during 5 days.

I was thinking they might stay in the shed 2-3 days this week to 'build/install' new stuff, but, since they're not likely to work on the hulls (e.g., hydro) and they have a spare wing, they can probably do most mods (software and electronics, foils, wing, etc) at the same time as they're out trying to improve crew work in tacks/gybes.

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Dismantle "17" to the point it is unsailable, and bolt those new bows onto the Artemis boat?

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12 minutes ago, Raptorsailor said:

People are saying ETNZ are sailing upwind like AC34, as in bigger angle than OR, right? So.... OR just sail upwind like TNZ and... oh shit.

I only see them sailing bigger angles upwind when well they are ahead in light air, in order to (i) keep speed up for efficient foiling and tacking and (ii) to get over to where OR is so they can remain between OR and the next mark.

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Just now, TN_Kiwi said:

I only see them sailing bigger angles when well they are ahead in light air, in order to (i) keep speed up for efficient foiling and tacking and (ii) to get over to where OR is so they can remain between OR and the next mark.

Hmmm, k.

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7 minutes ago, TN_Kiwi said:

I was thinking they might stay in the shed 2-3 days this week to 'build/install' new stuff, but, since they're not likely to work on the hulls (e.g., hydro) and they have a spare wing, they can probably do most mods (software and electronics, foils, wing, etc) at the same time as they're out trying to improve crew work in tacks/gybes.

IMO, they will be out every one of the 5 days to test and analyze.

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4 hours ago, mozzy656 said:

I don't believe the three months to build a set of boards. Beyond limitations such as curing times for resin and class measurement rules; if you pay enough money then it can be done. 

The issue is, if they build a new board, what will it look like? That would assume they already know what large changes they need to make. 

Any then if you make a large change to you boards there is a risk of the unknown; will it work in your system at all? The same can be said for just buying some one else foils.

I think any change will be small physically, or even could be technique change. Identified by the data guys. Something that will enable them to access a new mode. 

I was surprised that oracle spent the time during the finals practicing starts with japan. Surely with the benefits of an almost identical boat is that you can practice mode changing, look at wing and foils setting etc? Plus, pre-start tactics is a hugely individual thing, sending 5 days making sure you've got the measure of Dean Barker and his style, does not ensure you'll have the measure of Peter Burling; whereas boat speed is transferable whoever you race.  

Lets assume for a minute you have an industrial CNC mill and autoclave on site in Bermuda (not too far fetched). Lets also assume for a minute you have a new light air tip design ready to roll today. You need four molds-top left, top right, bottom left, bottom right. That is an easy 24 hours of machining time, likely more. Then you have the layup. That's where the real issue is, lets say they have the molds ready to go tomorrow AM. You have to debulk every 3 layers or you will have air entrapped in your pre-preg. I'm guessing these laminates are in the neighborhood of 30 layers of UHM uni carbon pre-preg in the 9 oz/yd^2 cloth range. That equates to 10 de-bulk sessions per mold at an average cycle of 2 hours (1-1.5 hour of debulking, 30 minutes to lay cloth into mold). That is 20 hours of time. Then you have the cure cycle in the autoclave, which is likely a ramp up ramp down cure cycle with about a 12 hour total cycle. So total time we are talking about 32 hours plus the machining. Again, this is all just for a new horizontal shaft, and I may be optimistic in my times (my shop takes 3x this for the same process but they are slow and working multiple projects and don't have everything they need on site). I'm guessing another four hours of de-mold and finishing time, again that could be optimistic but this isn't their first rodeo. So maybe, very optimistically, within 36 hours after tooling is available they can have a new set of horizontals on the boat and out on the sound practicing. That would be ~Wednesday, and again my numbers are rather optimistic and assume a full professional team working around the clock.

I suspect the 3 month lead time is about right for an outsourced board build. Tooling alone takes about half that time to have produced at an outside shop (6 weeks ARO).

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4 minutes ago, samc99us said:

Lets assume for a minute you have an industrial CNC mill and autoclave on site in Bermuda (not too far fetched). Lets also assume for a minute you have a new light air tip design ready to roll today. You need four molds-top left, top right, bottom left, bottom right. That is an easy 24 hours of machining time, likely more. Then you have the layup. That's where the real issue is, lets say they have the molds ready to go tomorrow AM. You have to debulk every 3 layers or you will have air entrapped in your pre-preg. I'm guessing these laminates are in the neighborhood of 30 layers of UHM uni carbon pre-preg in the 9 oz/yd^2 cloth range. That equates to 10 de-bulk sessions per mold at an average cycle of 2 hours (1-1.5 hour of debulking, 30 minutes to lay cloth into mold). That is 20 hours of time. Then you have the cure cycle in the autoclave, which is likely a ramp up ramp down cure cycle with about a 12 hour total cycle. So total time we are talking about 32 hours plus the machining. Again, this is all just for a new horizontal shaft, and I may be optimistic in my times (my shop takes 3x this for the same process but they are slow and working multiple projects and don't have everything they need on site). I'm guessing another four hours of de-mold and finishing time, again that could be optimistic but this isn't their first rodeo. So maybe, very optimistically, within 36 hours after tooling is available they can have a new set of horizontals on the boat and out on the sound practicing. That would be ~Wednesday, and again my numbers are rather optimistic and assume a full professional team working around the clock.

I suspect the 3 month lead time is about right for an outsourced board build. Tooling alone takes about half that time to have produced at an outside shop (6 weeks ARO).

They can decide to do it any place in the world and transport it by plane.

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samc99us - Good timeline info - thanks!  If they use their Warkworth (Auckland NZ) facility to do it, you have to add an extra day for airfreight - I'm pretty sure they have all the foils and tips they will use already in-house, and they've tried them all by now too.

I'd guess their main improvements could come in more 'automated' wing adjustments ('legal' electronic devices), and other software-based changes. Plus, practicing  doing much quicker foiling gybes and tacks, and maybe coming up with some totally novel/radical pre-start plans to get ETNZ into a penalty situation. 

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Herbie v2 will control the foils and wing through the tacks and gybes, with JS still holding onto the wing sheet and twirling the controls on the wheel for show. Probably still will not be able to win because foils are not fast enough.

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^ My guess is that - after looking at the results for day one (where OR's predicted lightwind deficit turned out to be of far greater magnitude than anyone anticipated) and the long term forecast (light) - they intentionally used the wrong (uprange) foils yesterday to give the build crew an extra day to modify the downrange set to the absolute limit allowed by the rule. I believe they have a one time 30% mod permitted, and that they will use it.

There is zero chance that they will instal cyclors - that window shut a long time ago - and I think it is unlikely that they will be able to integrate a rule-beater 'herbie' that plugs a human into the loop like ETNZ are doing.

I do think it's ironic that all the ETNZ fans who were shrieking in 2013 about an imaginary 'herbie' that never existed (and still are LOL) are now all apparently oblivious to the fact that ETNZ appear to have exactly such a device that skirts the rule by having a human follow the 'instructions' by putting his finger on a moving dot on a touchscreen to control ride height.

But you have to admire the ETNZ approach:

They solved their hydro issues by adding cyclors

They solved stability issues by figuring a legal work-around to incorporate computer aided/controlled flying - this work around required having one person dedicated to the single task of following the ball on his screen with his finger, and ETNZ successfully adjusted their crew strategy to accommodate that.

Their French foil designer created a very clever two mode foil that benefitted hugely from the decision to ignore reaching performance since those legs are inconsequential to the outcome unless the boats are very closely matched.

If the wind comes up, OR have a chance, but if it stays below 11 kts, I think the odds of a comeback are very slim.

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2 hours ago, Foyle said:

The smart thing for Team Oracle to do at this point would be to ease up, relax and spend the remainder of their budget on hookers, blow and booze.  LE is going to fire them all in a week anyway, there is no way for them to bridge the performance gap to win 70% of remaining races, their designers reps are screwed, their sailors can't salvage it, so might as well have some fun in the meantime.

I dunno man. Is there enough male prostitutes on the island? 

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i wonder if the ACEA will post a twitter feed if Oracle does modify their foil like they did with ETNZ foil rebuild

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6 hours ago, Mudz said:

OR chances lie with the weather gods I think. .

 

6 hours ago, Mudz said:

I agree.  It was Outteridge who commented before day 1 that OR does well in 6-8 knots of wind, and above 12.   He pointed out that in 8-12, OR does not have the setup to be fast.   All four races thus far have been in Oracle's dead zone.  So to answer the question posed in this thread, either Oracle sacrifices the 6-8 dagger, or the 12+ dagger, to modify to suite 8-12 conditions, or leave everything as is and bet that the weather will NOT be 8-12 more often than it is.

 

6 hours ago, Mudz said:

 

 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, surfsailor said:

[snip]

Their French foil designer created a very clever two mode foil that benefitted hugely from the decision to ignore reaching performance since those legs are inconsequential to the outcome unless the boats are very closely matched.

[snip]

Might need to check that - I read on another thread that he's a New Zealander.

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10 hours ago, Qman said:

i think the difference here is that in 34, oracle had a big crash wrote off a boat and were a little late in there program meaning they still hadn't reached their capacity.  

They can't say the same this time, they are well prepared and wanting for nothing so its hard to see where the capacity will come from.  

Completely agree, upwind foiling was the significant change in how they sailed that gave them a huge leap in performance. I can't see any way they can make a similar leap this time around. 

Second cycle of the rule and everyone is a long way more adavanced than last time around. On top of that ETNZ have found a much faster corner of the box! 

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1 hour ago, surfsailor said:

^ My guess is that - after looking at the results for day one (where OR's predicted lightwind deficit turned out to be of far greater magnitude than anyone anticipated) and the long term forecast (light) - they intentionally used the wrong (uprange) foils yesterday to give the build crew an extra day to modify the downrange set to the absolute limit allowed by the rule. I believe they have a one time 30% mod permitted, and that they will use it.

 

Hmm there's a thought... see the writing on the wall and get moving early...

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1 hour ago, Tornado-Cat said:

They can decide to do it any place in the world and transport it by plane.

True. Then as TN_kiwi points out, add an extra day for air freight. Generally speaking on something like this, it's preferable to have the design and build team right next to each other as the timeline is too short to generate detailed drawings for an overnight fab job.

TN_kiwi,

 I agree with you, if they had a faster foil design already, they would have gone with it. If they thought they could have done better when they got up close and personal with the NZL boat, they would have had that in the pipeline already. My take on their asymmetric board choice on Sunday was they knew Sunday morning that they had a speed deficit in those conditions and by putting two different foils into the boat they would at least get the opportunity to test two foil configurations in one day, giving them valuable data in the off time. They now know which foils to run and can focus on optimizing the boat for that configuration.

I also agree that the best Oracle can do now are improve their control systems, maybe move ride height off JS and work on their boat handling. Will these changes be enough? That's hard to say-I don't think NZL are going to fall into a trap this week and will be working to improve their boat handling and boat speed as well. It seems that Burling/Ashby are a pair of fast sailors in a fast boat and know how to get a foiling multihull downwind with better VMG than probably anyone in the world. JS/TS better come out swinging come Saturday or I fear its game over.

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42 minutes ago, TN_Kiwi said:

Might need to check that - I read on another thread that he's a New Zealander.

If Guillaume Verdier invented it, he is french.

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40 minutes ago, TN_Kiwi said:

Might need to check that - I read on another thread that he's a New Zealander.

Who would he be? Safe to assume it was a group effort, still I'd tend to credit Guillaume Verdier - just look at the weird but effective foils he's designed for his IMOCAs

 

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8 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

If Guillaume Verdier invented it, he is french.

 

7 minutes ago, Xlot said:

Who would he be? Safe to assume it was a group effort, still I'd tend to credit Guillaume Verdier - just look at the weird but effective foils he's designed for his IMOCAs

 

I don't recall where I thought someone said the foil designer was a kiwi - you're right - Guillaume Verdier was part of the ETNZ design team: 

http://www.guillaumeverdier.com/en/project_post/2016-ac-50-team-new-zealand/

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1 hour ago, surfsailor said:

I do think it's ironic that all the ETNZ fans who were shrieking in 2013 about an imaginary 'herbie' that never existed (and still are LOL) are now all apparently oblivious to the fact that ETNZ appear to have exactly such a device that skirts the rule by having a human follow the 'instructions' by putting his finger on a moving dot on a touchscreen to control ride height.

 

What's ironic is a yank muppet who can't differentiate between using a perfectly legal control system (ETNZ) and OR-XEROX's use of a mechanical feed-back system prohibited under the Class Rule. 

Cheating and alternative facts must be a cultural thing..

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Does anyone know if the dagger boards and Rudder are included in the class rule sailing weight? If so then it is entirely feasible that the tips are machined from high tensile steel. I'd imagine weight down in the tip would be a massive advantage in terms of stability. 

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2 minutes ago, Mudz said:

Does anyone know if the dagger boards and Rudder are included in the class rule sailing weight? If so then it is entirely feasible that the tips are machined from high tensile steel. I'd imagine weight down in the tip would be a massive advantage in terms of stability. 

They are. And a poster reported a comment by a Core worker who saw an OR-XEROX damaged daggerboard returned to Warkworth for repairs as :"They're cheating"

But they can test all sorts of illegal shit but it's not cheating until they modify after being issued a Measurement Certificate.

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35 minutes ago, Mudz said:

Does anyone know if the dagger boards and Rudder are included in the class rule sailing weight? If so then it is entirely feasible that the tips are machined from high tensile steel. I'd imagine weight down in the tip would be a massive advantage in terms of stability. 

On a same stiffness basis, the tip would be five times heavier ...

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My 2 cents....

 

USA could be faster than NZ in the blow, USA need to change their low speed foils !

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Tornado-Cat said:

Do we have some SAers in BDA, Jason perhaps, that could take pictures every day of OTUSA going out and coming back.

A good lense and hig resolution would be appreciated, and focus on eveything, but in particular the foils, rudders, wing, crew position.

I am sure TNZ is doing the same thing.

WE NEED SOME SPIES NOW  and that will be the most interesting thread of the AC during 5 days.

Too right, I hope we've got boots on the ground to watch everything. Larry's ego fuelled by infinite money is dangerous. 

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1 hour ago, Mudz said:

That was me. Guillaume is a great New Zealander as is Ashby and the entire New Zealand Team. 

Don't tell me that Kiwis are winning thanks to a frog and an aussie. I am for strict nationality rules :)

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8 hours ago, mozzy656 said:

I don't believe the three months to build a set of boards. Beyond limitations such as curing times for resin and class measurement rules; if you pay enough money then it can be done. 

The issue is, if they build a new board, what will it look like? That would assume they already know what large changes they need to make. 

Any then if you make a large change to you boards there is a risk of the unknown; will it work in your system at all? The same can be said for just buying some one else foils.

I think any change will be small physically, or even could be technique change. Identified by the data guys. Something that will enable them to access a new mode. 

I was surprised that oracle spent the time during the finals practicing starts with japan. Surely with the benefits of an almost identical boat is that you can practice mode changing, look at wing and foils setting etc? Plus, pre-start tactics is a hugely individual thing, sending 5 days making sure you've got the measure of Dean Barker and his style, does not ensure you'll have the measure of Peter Burling; whereas boat speed is transferable whoever you race.  

No point having slipperier boards if you don't have enough oil to trim them.

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Sometimes advantages can come from the weirdest places. I know some of the kite Foilers testing out new gear , nice and shiny and smooth from the box, experience small cavitations on the fin VMG upwind, they sand the front and rear surfaces with 400 /800 grit, and record 1 - 1.5 kt speed difference upwind.... 

 

It doesn't take much, despite all the r & d, and years designing / testing, I would be surprised these guys are even at 90% of what is possible with the current rules. 

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for instance. They seem to rebuilt one of the wings. Possibly to change controls, as the wing itself is one design.

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Guys - they can't get new boards - please read the rules or any thread over the past three months before suggesting random things.

 

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49 minutes ago, dachopper said:

My 2 cents....

 

USA could be faster than NZ in the blow, USA need to change their low speed foils !

 

 

 

They used their low speed foils on the first day, and they lost.

They switched to their high-speed low drag foils for the second to trade stability for speed in the hopes of at least getting the first reach, ETNZ still had their more draggy low-speed boards on, and still smoked them. This was frankly shocking - as it implies that ETNZ's high-drag low speed boards can outperform Oracle's high speed boards at well-above low speeds.

Oracle are in a corner here...

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One thing is for sure.  If OR do turn things around I will not be able to watch the pressers - spithill will be such a smug son of a bitch!

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10 minutes ago, rh2600 said:

They used their low speed foils on the first day, and they lost.

They switched to their high-speed low drag foils for the second to trade stability for speed in the hopes of at least getting the first reach, ETNZ still had their more draggy low-speed boards on, and still smoked them. This was frankly shocking - as it implies that ETNZ's high-drag low speed boards can outperform Oracle's high speed boards at well-above low speeds.

Oracle are in a corner here...

We saw the same thing against Artemis.

Artemis regularly had better speed against us on the reach when the wind was 13 - 14 knots.

As soon as it dropped to 12 knots and below, our super long "draggy" boards that are supposed to be only good upwind suddenly were better on the reach also.

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4 hours ago, surfsailor said:

I do think it's ironic that all the ETNZ fans who were shrieking in 2013 about an imaginary 'herbie' that never existed (and still are LOL) are now all apparently oblivious to the fact that ETNZ appear to have exactly such a device that skirts the rule by having a human follow the 'instructions' by putting his finger on a moving dot on a touchscreen to control ride height.

 

Every single person on every single boat is sitting there taking instructions from a computer, do you really think they are hitting the line perfctly every time by counting in their head?

Do you think they don't have devices showing them optimum trim? Optimum VMG? Optimum lay lines?

Anyone who doesn't think every aspect of these boats is computer assisted is pretty darn naive!

It's still different than actually having the computer make the decision.

More specifically if you actually watch Blair Tuke during a race you will notice he physically looks at the foils quite frequently, so sure he might be getting some computer assistance, but he is also mark one eyeballing it as well and making adjustments accordingly.

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There is no evidence to suggest that OR are faster in heavier winds.

And judging by the all round ability of the TNZ boat I would suggest that TNZ have the edge in any conditions.

And that edge is a significant margin - enough to shock the worlds sailing press, not just TNZ fans

 

Just bring it on  OR and lets see what you have!

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JS will ram ETNZ on sat in an "accident", rendering both boats inoperable. Match to be resailed in 2 years time. Dalts go to court.

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9 minutes ago, jh121 said:

JS will ram ETNZ on sat in an "accident", rendering both boats inoperable. Match to be resailed in 2 years time. Dalts go to court.

as i said elsewhere - ETNZ need to play keep-away ... in the pre-start and on the course - to prevent desperate actions.

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Haven't read all of the above but: 

Assuming that OR does show up with a boat 5% faster upwind/starboard than what ETNZ put on the water this weekend (the only margin yesterday) then:

What will ETNZ be trying to improve on to fend that off? IF that were to happen there would be very time to react, they have to be worried about the possibility.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Haven't read all of the above but: 

Assuming that OR does show up with a boat 5% faster upwind/starboard than what ETNZ put on the water this weekend (the only margin yesterday) then:

What will ETNZ be trying to improve on to fend that off? IF that were to happen there would be very time to react. 

*IF* Oracle can catch up, and *IF* ETNZ don't also get faster, only *THEN* you'll have an actual match race, rather than these horizon jobs.

In that event who's to say ETNZ can't out-handle them? It would be pretty even, and doesn't put Oracle back in as a sure thing...

 

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6 minutes ago, rh2600 said:

*IF* Oracle can catch up, and *IF* ETNZ don't also get faster, only *THEN* you'll have an actual match race, rather than these horizon jobs.

In that event who's to say ETNZ can't out-handle them? It would be pretty even, and doesn't put Oracle back in as a sure thing...

 

True.  OR will have to be faster for there to be a repeat of San Fran.

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18 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Haven't read all of the above but: 

Assuming that OR does show up with a boat 5% faster upwind/starboard than what ETNZ put on the water this weekend (the only margin yesterday) then:

What will ETNZ be trying to improve on to fend that off? IF that were to happen there would be very time to react, they have to be worried about the possibility.

 

 

If TNZ has a special weapon they will use it as soon as saturday and try to defeat OR with 4 in a row in order to prevent them from buying time.

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The light air foils are a L/D trade off to get the boat up and out of the water at lower wind speeds. Oracle going to the heavy air foils on Sunday gambled on less drag since the foils have less lateral plane but it was frequently dipping its nose in the water from a lack of lift, especially when gybing.  While the differences in boards between the boats can be debated in terms of  effect on performance,  the VMG's, upwind and down clearly show that ETNZ wing trim is the difference maker. At the speeds the boats are going a very small difference in angle translates to huge distances. No doubt Oracle has sorted out the cause of their "slows", can they figure out a solution?

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12 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Haven't read all of the above but: 

Assuming that OR does show up with a boat 5% faster upwind/starboard than what ETNZ put on the water this weekend (the only margin yesterday) then:

What will ETNZ be trying to improve on to fend that off? IF that were to happen there would be very time to react, they have to be worried about the possibility.

 

 

:lol: the cheerleading hungover spinbot with oral herpes is back with his usual "assuming the world is flat..." wistful Santa wishes. Did it occur to you that IF OR-XEROX turns up "5% faster upwind/starboard that what ETNZ put on the water this weekend". they would need to harvest an overall improvement of over 10% to do that?? From where will they get this magical improvement of this magnitude? And in your  wet-dreams, did you think that ETNZ are going fishing for 5 days and won't add enhancements to their boat??

You've hit the Pinot pretty early today. Mind you, so would I if I were you...:o

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17 minutes ago, rh2600 said:

*IF* Oracle can catch up, and *IF* ETNZ don't also get faster, only *THEN* you'll have an actual match race, rather than these horizon jobs.

In that event who's to say ETNZ can't out-handle them? It would be pretty even, and doesn't put Oracle back in as a sure thing...

 

For sure. But there's little discussion above about what ETNZ must be trying to improve too, which they undoubtedly must be trying 'just in case.'

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3 minutes ago, Golfinaspen said:

 Oracle going to the heavy air foils on Sunday gambled on less drag since the foils have less lateral plane but it was frequently dipping its nose in the water from a lack of lift, especially when gybing.

Yes, faster boat on the reach, slower upwind, but mainly, they probably missed their gybe because of it. I don't know why PB did not try to luff them at the start, they would have fallen off the foil earlier and would have lost 300m at the starting line.

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6 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

If TNZ has a special weapon they will use it as soon as saturday and try to defeat OR with 4 in a row in order to prevent them from buying time.

One thing is for sure - any sandbagging (if there has been some) will stop on Saturday.  All cards will be played.  The first race on Saturday will be like the actual first race in an AC.

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1 minute ago, 1eyedkiwi said:

One thing is for sure - any sandbagging (if there has been some) will stop on Saturday.  All cards will be played.  The first race on Saturday will be like the actual first race in an AC.

Can't wait !

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5 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

For sure. But there's little discussion above about what ETNZ must be trying to improve too, which they undoubtedly must be trying 'just in case.'

I don't think its just in case, because that is "just in case oracle get faster" and there is ZERO doubt they will.

ETNZ will come out next Saturday (Rachel's time :D ) with as much speed as they can muster and hopefully that will be enough.

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3 minutes ago, Indio said:

:lol: the cheerleading hungover spinbot with oral herpes is back with his usual "assuming the world is flat..." wistful Santa wishes. Did it occur to you that IF OR-XEROX turns up "5% faster upwind/starboard that what ETNZ put on the water this weekend". they would need to harvest an overall improvement of over 10% to do that?? From where will they get this magical improvement of this magnitude? And in your  wet-dreams, did you think that ETNZ are going fishing for 5 days and won't add enhancements to their boat??

You've hit the Pinot pretty early today. Mind you, so would I if I were you...:o

Indio, I am for NZL but I would not count on logic with Orifice and their supporters. let us not forget that they have the MC in their pocket AGAIN and have alternate facts in their side...

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23 minutes ago, Indio said:

<blafingblabla> did you think that ETNZ are going fishing for 5 days and won't add enhancements to their boat??</>

That is my discussion to pose. 

The faster boat this past weekend will show in the results, exactly as normally happens but with the marginal differences magnified between freaks this variably fast.

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5 hours ago, TN_Kiwi said:

Might need to check that - I read on another thread that he's a New Zealander.

GUILLAUME VERDIER is french ("regular Contributor" to VPLP).  Other naval architect on the team is Bobby Klienschmidt who is an american and a schoolmate of mine at Webb Institute.  Bobby was involved in the last cup for ETNZ as well coming from Morelli & Melvin.

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20 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

Can't wait !

one thing i don't get is that etnz still haven't been running full fairings over the dagger board casing.  I think they did early on but not after the crash.  i think there is some improvements still 

 

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11 minutes ago, ibsailn said:

GUILLAUME VERDIER is french ("regular Contributor" to VPLP).  Other naval architect on the team is Bobby Klienschmidt who is an american and a schoolmate of mine at Webb Institute.  Bobby was involved in the last cup for ETNZ as well coming from Morelli & Melvin.

you missed my follow up post

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4 hours ago, Indio said:

What's ironic is a yank muppet who can't differentiate between using a perfectly legal control system (ETNZ) and OR-XEROX's use of a mechanical feed-back system prohibited under the Class Rule. 

Cheating and alternative facts must be a cultural thing..

1) The 'mechanical feedback' system which wasn't (because it was internal to the mechanism) was ruled legal.

2) I said 'herbie' - you know, the imaginary 'cheating' that you and multiple other kiwi fans are still whingeing about 4 years later.

3) Fuck off. 

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ETNZ is playing a very smart poker hand. The pot has been building up as the pretenders have dropped off, it's now just the Kid and Old Pro at the table. The Kid has just checked and it's the Old Pro's move: does he hold his nerve and try to bluff the kid by betting and waiting for the Kid to make his play, does he go all-in?

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14 hours ago, 1eyedkiwi said:

I doubt it. Super risky to purposely lose 4 races in the match - surely?  OR could have a gear failure in the next race and suddenly be down 5-0.

I am hoping the more likely explanation is they were desperate. They figured out a while ago how much potential our set up had and realised they needed to do the best they could to copy it knowing that it was too late even back then to fully change. 

One thing is for certain - it'll all become clear this weekend. All cards will be played. 

The commentators were right this morning - it doesn't matter who had the fastest boat in the first 2 days - whoever has the fastest boat this weekend will win the cup. That first race this weekend will be nerve racking!

Well said. Encouragingly, to my mind, ETNZ are constantly improving and getting better each race. PB is hugely impressive .....seems to have no fear and a natural talent for driving the boat very fast. And the entire team seem to have a fierce determination. I don't know how I'll make to the weekend ..... never have I wanted any team to win anything more. Common ENTZ you beauties.....

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3 minutes ago, surfsailor said:

1) The 'mechanical feedback' system which wasn't (because it was internal to the mechanism) was ruled legal.

2) I said 'herbie' - you know, the imaginary 'cheating' that you and multiple other kiwi fans are still whingeing about 4 years later.

3) Fuck off. 

1) Bullshit. The MC were never asked to rule on the mechanical feed-back device which the IJ also recognised but were unable to address because they were not asked to. Fast forward to AC35, and the Class Rules have effectively slammed the door on any cheating opportunities for OR-XEROX, with an over-vigilant MC making up for their incompetence in 2013.

2: You're confusing a VW with the oral herpes you and spinbot keep cultivating with the BS you keep coming up with to avoid admission of OR-XEROX's cheating. Your team cheated twice - one they were convicted on, and the second time they got away with. Doesn't change the fact they cheated to win AC34.

3) Prosecution rests:)

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If Oracle has a major collision on Saturday with TNZ, then TNZ will be granted one day to repair.  What happens if TNZ still not ready on Monday?  The match(es) go to Oracle as I understand it.  

 

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