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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

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jaysper

What I (think) I learned from today's racing

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Looking at these races, heres what I (think) I learnt:

 

1. Yesterday was no fluke (obviously). Orifice are now at least as fast in a straight line in these conditions.

2. If Orifice can find another 0.2 knots of boat speed over night they could still do this. However, you would think (and hope if you are a NZ fan) that this is not likely because they have already managed a massive jump in performance.

3. Potentially THAT bonus point could be VERY significant as without it, ETNZ would already be on the podium. But if they had won the round robins, it would have spooked the horses earlier and Orifice might have been able to overtake us by now.

4. ETNZ have been satisfied to do just enough in the starts until such time as they felt they needed to start winning them.

5. Following on from #4, ETNZ obvious now feel that they DO need to start winning the starts as they can no longer rely on raw boat speed to win the race.

6. Orifice clearly have a tiger by the tail in terms of boat stability. They have done amazingly well so far, but unless they find that 0.2 knot mentioned in #2, then at some stage between now and end of Cup it is pretty much odds on that they will fuck up a manoeuvre that hands the cup to ETNZ.

 

WindGuru is currently predicting a lighter day tomorrow (6 - 7 knots), although whether this eventuates is another story.

However, if it does I do wonder whether Orifice will be able to foot it with ETNZ as stability becomes ever more important in light airs.

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As I see it, the problem with TO is oil pressure, at this kind of speed, that makes the difference. With these conditions, it's going to be difficult for them to gain that 0.2 you mention, unless a rude mistake by TENZ. If wind gets higher, who knows?

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Latest news - Oracle are going to gain that extra 0.2 percent by removing a bunch of lead pellets they found in the boat.

#fakenews

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Oracle is now the faster boat by small margins by any measure of it: up/down, port/sb, raw speed, AWS and VMG. Even in these conditions. Another .2 knots would help any boat but that's not where Oracle is getting their butts kicked.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, KoW said:

Latest news - Oracle are going to gain that extra 0.2 percent by removing a bunch of lead pellets they found in the boat.

#fakenews

#KingPostsMatter

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Just now, ~Stingray~ said:

Oracle is now the faster boat by small margins by any measure of it: up/down, port/sb, raw speed, AWS and VMG. Even in these conditions. Another .2 knots would help any boat but that's not where Oracle is getting their butts kicked.

 

 

I'm not sure the data is sufficient to state either boat is definitely faster Stinger. Certainly it looks like Orifice might be faster, but to many other variables in play (wind direction, strength, etc...) make a definitive statement impossible.

If either boat were to find another 0.2 knots, you would start to see reasonably comfortable victories even in the face of (minor) mistakes.

But certainly that start this morning wasn't minor. You could argue in some ways that it wasn't a mistake at all rather than pure brilliance by Burling - just stunning!

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  • Fastest way to the finish line is the shortest distance sailed
  • VMG is GOD
  • Balance the shifts to keeping your boat between the other guy & the mark Yup - those lessons are engraved in my frontal lobe - what a demonstration........ unreal

Oh & make sure your Hydraulic system absolutely rocks!

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5 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Oracle is now the faster boat by small margins by any measure of it: up/down, port/sb, raw speed, AWS and VMG. Even in these conditions. Another .2 knots would help any boat but that's not where Oracle is getting their butts kicked.

 

 

Stingers, all but VMG. Both up and downwind. I think you've gotten that one wrong.

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10 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Oracle is now the faster boat by small margins by any measure of it: up/down, port/sb, raw speed, AWS and VMG. Even in these conditions. Another .2 knots would help any boat but that's not where Oracle is getting their butts kicked.

 

 

The difference are in the transitions, at these speeds. Take a look at the time on foils and oil pressure

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Even if Oracle is a fraction faster in most modes (quite possible but not certain), they need to sort out stability, acceleration and hydro - if they go out tomorrow without changing the boat they're going to have a helluva time trying to sail that thing, and they're going to need to win both starts and then make no errors (big ask considering the number of errors we've seen from them in the last 4 races).

Big work-ons in the shed tonight.

What Oracle probably need is for tomorrow to be too light for racing during the TV window, but strong enough before and after for more testing. That would buy them more time to iron out the kinks, but I'm not sure that at match point I can see them having the energy and resolve after they've just put in such a herculean 24x7 for 7 days on the trot.

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6 minutes ago, NZL5 said:

Stingers, all but VMG. Both up and downwind. I think you've gotten that one wrong.

Agree. something is wrong....

distance between marks/time on leg

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will oracle bid strongly for nathan?

jimmy's past it

and an etnz 80% nationality rule would probably be most difficult for the swedes

of course oz would want him but oracle have deeper pockets

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37 minutes ago, jaysper said:

Looking at these races, heres what I (think) I learnt:

 

1. Yesterday was no fluke (obviously). Orifice are now at least as fast in a straight line in these conditions.

2. If Orifice can find another 0.2 knots of boat speed over night they could still do this. However, you would think (and hope if you are a NZ fan) that this is not likely because they have already managed a massive jump in performance.

3. Potentially THAT bonus point could be VERY significant as without it, ETNZ would already be on the podium. But if they had won the round robins, it would have spooked the horses earlier and Orifice might have been able to overtake us by now.

4. ETNZ have been satisfied to do just enough in the starts until such time as they felt they needed to start winning them.

5. Following on from #4, ETNZ obvious now feel that they DO need to start winning the starts as they can no longer rely on raw boat speed to win the race.

6. Orifice clearly have a tiger by the tail in terms of boat stability. They have done amazingly well so far, but unless they find that 0.2 knot mentioned in #2, then at some stage between now and end of Cup it is pretty much odds on that they will fuck up a manoeuvre that hands the cup to ETNZ.

 

WindGuru is currently predicting a lighter day tomorrow (6 - 7 knots), although whether this eventuates is another story.

However, if it does I do wonder whether Orifice will be able to foot it with ETNZ as stability becomes ever more important in light airs.

Aren't you in a generous mood!?

1 Fast - but not to the marks. Fast - but unstable

2 Nope, they'd need more than that imo

3 Nope, wont come into play any more than it already has.

4 They have been trying to sail clean, even start was and still is good enough.

5 They were gifted an opportunity by OTUSA falling off the 'fast' foils, (there have been others in the regatta they have ignored), this time they took it. Didn't need to.

6 Too much to fix - too late mate!

 

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18 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Oracle is now the faster boat by small margins by any measure of it: up/down, port/sb, raw speed, AWS and VMG. Even in these conditions. Another .2 knots would help any boat but that's not where Oracle is getting their butts kicked.

 

 

Spinbot, you just skipped over, purposely, distance sailed ... and the Kiwis sailed considerably less than Orifice - that might tell you something, perhaps? Like high pointing plus equal speed; this of course is not taking  into consideration the appalling FU's that Orifice made on course. You are now entering the Lord of Fools area?

 

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4 minutes ago, nav said:

Agree. something is wrong....

distance between marks/time on leg

I excluded Distance Sailed from the stats I have posted most recently because I have a .3% discrepancy with what the official stats show. But I am increasingly convinced that their algorithm is less accurate than mine and so I may start including them in my posted stats again.

The point of the above is that Yes, Distance_Sailed is a massively deciding factor. It tells a lot about course tactics but unfortunately that stat by itself does not illustrate how much a smaller distance sailed was by better wind-whispering or by luck.

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12 minutes ago, eric e said:

will oracle bid strongly for nathan?

jimmy's past it

and an etnz 80% nationality rule would probably be most difficult for the swedes

of course oz would want him but oracle have deeper pockets

I REALLY don't think Lazza will continue if he loses this time. Certainly I hope he doesn't as he has been a disaster for the cup.

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8 minutes ago, Groucho Marx said:

Spinbot, you just skipped over, purposely, distance sailed ... and the Kiwis sailed considerably less than Orifice - that might tell you something, perhaps? Like high pointing plus equal speed; this of course is not taking  into consideration the appalling FU's that Orifice made on course. You are now entering the Lord of Fools area?

 

This weekend Oracle has been marginally faster than ETNZ including in VMG. It's mostly about distance sailed and to skip over that would be monumentally silly. NO and CD spoke to that exact number, during several of today's legs.

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just watching the presser

interesting how burling credits the luff up at start to both ray davies and murray jones

looks like jimmy's become too predictable 

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ETNZ does have and will have an edge until the last race where they win the AC.

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well EVERYONE has consistently said the fastest boat will win.

"Fastest" is more than just knots.

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3 minutes ago, PJB said:

well EVERYONE has consistently said the fastest boat will win.

"Fastest" is more than just knots.

Agreed and I do think ETNZ have the overall faster boat. But in a STRAIGHT LINE Orifice have at least evened things up.

Unless they can pull another rabbit out of the hat (and lets face it the last rabbit has been quite impressive), then they are fucked.

However, right now in order to win races ETNZ (IMO) either needs to win the race or have a minor fuck up from orifice as I do think that Orifice are now capable of defending a lead if they sail spot on. Can they do that for 6 races in a row? I don't think so. This is not 2013 IMO.

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34 minutes ago, NZL5 said:

Stingers, all but VMG. Both up and downwind. I think you've gotten that one wrong.

The numbers show better VMG by Oracle most of the time. Even today:

 

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9 minutes ago, PJB said:

well EVERYONE has consistently said the fastest boat will win.

"Fastest" is more than just knots.

Exactly. If the definition of 'fastest' is who crossed the line first then that ignores plenty of more-nuanced definitions of 'fastest.'

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5 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

The numbers show better VMG by Oracle most of the time. Even today:

 

That's what I wrote in the other thread, OR had the faster boat today, ETNZ the better sailors (helmsman)

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1 minute ago, Lartitude36S said:

How can you be faster with better VMG and still lose?

IIRC OR sailed a longer distance.
Yep, somehow weird

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Rennmaus said:

That's what I wrote in the other thread, OR had the faster boat today, ETNZ the better sailors (helmsman)

Thanks, haven't tried to wade through all the other threads yet. 

PB is quite obviously a very, very good tactician. They were smart to unload other functions to elsewhere on the boat to give him that much trust, luxury and responsibility. JS has far too much on his shoulders, even with all the feedback from TS.

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27 minutes ago, jaysper said:

I REALLY don't think Lazza will continue if he loses this time. Certainly I hope he doesn't as he has been a disaster for the cup.

Well - his loss, your gain. 

AC34 was fantastic. And I have few complaints how this one has shaped up. 100% foiling - awesome stuff

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10 minutes ago, Lartitude36S said:

How can you be faster with better VMG and still lose?

Slower through transitions, not picking the shifts, copping penalties, sailing in another boat's wind shadow, having to dial down, missing your laylines... shall we count the ways?

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1.  Hydraulic accumulators seem to be much larger on Oracle (or they use WAY less oil which I find unlikely).

2.  NZ can charge up their accumulators VERY quickly, but they do diminish to lowish pressure.

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2 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Yep. A screenshot from today's world-feed

 

 

IMG_1594.PNG

the brutal reality....but hey...unless one is is denial all you had to do was watch....

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8 minutes ago, KoW said:

Slower through transitions, not picking the shifts, copping penalties, sailing in another boat's wind shadow, having to dial down, missing your laylines... shall we count the ways?

All of those affect your VMG negatively. To answer the question, the biggest factor is Distance Sailed.

But they do help explain why OR is getting beat.

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2 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

But all of those affect your VMG negatively.

Sorry you're right, I was thinking entirely in terms of VMG to the true wind direction, as opposed to VMG to the mark

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33 minutes ago, PJB said:

well EVERYONE has consistently said the fastest boat will win.

"Fastest" is more than just knots.

Fastest = shortest time and distance between two points. End of...

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What I noticed today - wow, big moves by GA on the main. 

Check replay 2nd leeward gate, last race of the day.

Also, 1 or 2 knots of extra wind speed seems much more significant for OR than ETNZ. Still think that key for the packages. At these velocities that little bit extra breeze equates to significant percentage more energy. Energy that seems to bring OR up to an equivalent foiling threshold. 

But beneath that threshold - ETNZ will not be beaten. 

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9 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

But all of those affect your VMG negatively. To answer the question, the biggest factor is Distance Sailed.

You are missing something (and I don't just mean the vmg figures in the graphic you reposted) :)

 

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12 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Yep. A screenshot from today's world-feed

 

 

IMG_1594.PNG

Which part m I missing? .09 faster is not much, but the average VMG is .93 more. ETNZ do not sail for speed except for when they need it. I have watched them sail high upwind with just a click or two less speed, and then soak downwind in the same manner sometimes eliminating a gybe.

What cannot be accounted for is when OR gets a puff from behind and for a short time is a knot or two faster. At best they are close to what AR had but do not have all the package and options ETNZ do.

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1 minute ago, ~HHN92~ said:

Which part m I missing? .09 faster is not much, but the average VMG is .93 more. ETNZ do not sail for speed except for when they need it. I have watched them sail high upwind with just a click or two less speed, and then soak downwind in the same manner sometimes eliminating a gybe.

What cannot be accounted for is when OR gets a puff from behind and for a short time is a knot or two faster. At best they are close to what AR had but do not have all the package and options ETNZ do.

Yes, for that leg specifically, ETNZ did have slightly better VMG but it's likely due to the extra tack by OR.

What you may be missing, is what KR circled.

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1 minute ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Yes, for that leg specifically, ETNZ did have slightly better VMG but it's likely due to the extra tack by OR.

What you may be missing, is what KR circled.

Yes, but the tack is a function of being able to maintain a similar or better vmg whilst pointing higher.

This is why I said that in a STRAIGHT LINE Orifice are at least as fast, but they pay a price in other areas in order to achieve this.

What would happen if they pointed higher? Perhaps vmg would drop? I think the biggest difference we would see is that the stability of the boat would suffer more as the foils start to "see" a lower speed of water flow.

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26 minutes ago, KoW said:

Slower through transitions, not picking the shifts, copping penalties, sailing in another boat's wind shadow, having to dial down, missing your laylines... shall we count the ways?

Sounds like a design issue....

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4 minutes ago, jaysper said:

Yes, but the tack is a function of being able to maintain a similar or better vmg whilst pointing higher.

This is why I said that in a STRAIGHT LINE Orifice are at least as fast, but they pay a price in other areas in order to achieve this.

What would happen if they pointed higher? Perhaps vmg would drop? I think the biggest difference we would see is that the stability of the boat would suffer more as the foils start to "see" a lower speed of water flow.

You lose a lot of VMG through tacks, because of the speed curve. That extra tack does hurt teams.

They didn't post those nice speed charts this weekend, the ones that so graphically display bottom-speed and acceleration through manoevers. Perhaps I should, later today.

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VMG to wind direction gives a better idea of actual boat performance, VMG to the mark can actually be about sailing better - picking the wind shifts etc, minimizing manuevers by sailing the shortest distances between the boundaries etc... but isn't going to necessarily reveal which boat is "faster" (everything else being equal).

What we did see today was superb "race craft" by the NZ team, they covered when they had to, minimised distance sailed, maintained maximum "fly time" and nailed the starts. Hard to fault their performance.

Don't discount the probability they were yielding VMG to the mark at times to ensure they covered Spithill after the mistake yesterday... which may be giving a slightly false reading about ETNZ's relative boat speed.

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39 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Yep. A screenshot from today's world-feed

 

 

IMG_1594.PNG

OR is a bit faster but:

- sail a longer distance for 2 possible reasons, tactic or I would say, different foils

- they still miss some gybes because Jimmy has too much on the shoulder

NO was also focussing on how TNZ split the responsabilities on Ashby and Blair Tuke, and a special algorithm controlling the foils and rudders during tacks and gybes.

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21 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Yes, for that leg specifically, ETNZ did have slightly better VMG but it's likely due to the extra tack by OR.

What you may be missing, is what KR circled.

I think part of that is the soaking and pointing that they do, I do not think they always sail at top speed, but tactically. Might be why their numbers do not look as good.

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PB mentioned after the first race that they "consolidated" the lead to stay in touch with Oracle. They clearly gave up VMG for position on the race course.

It was a really shifty day on the water and a lead too big can be as bad as a big split (especially on these tight race courses). With that in mind, tactics were more important than numbers for ETNZ today.

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What I think I learned today? The practical application of the "S-bend" handbrake whirlies we were seeing back in Auckland - the setup for that beautiful hook in the prestart of Race 8; tight S-turn on the foils followed by planting both hulls in the water, right alongside XTUSA!

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2 minutes ago, nav said:

AC50-spin3.thumb.gif.ea5a8fd049feb239ed5

^ cool that

Yes it is. 

OR has recently been pulling off some tight-radius fast tacks too but whichever the boat is: it looks like that new board may be 'twisted' through those tacks. Pointed 'downwind' into the coming direction to swing the boat even more than what the rudders can do, and then better-aligned after they reach full extension.

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When I started racing sailboats in 1978 I was told two lessons:

-The faster you are, the faster you are probably running in the wrong direction

-The best way to win a race is to start in front of the others and stay there.

My little dog is at least three times faster than me but never first at home.

Cheers TNZ

 

 

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2 hours ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Oracle is now the faster boat by small margins by any measure of it: up/down, port/sb, raw speed, AWS and VMG. Even in these conditions. Another .2 knots would help any boat but that's not where Oracle is getting their butts kicked.

right - they may have increased speed (about equal to ETNZ in terms of VMG (straightline speed is not important), but at too high a cost to flight control - ETNZ have that balanced right. The reason ETNZ bested all Challengers, and have been thrashing OR (look at the total time differential) is they are simply better sailors - better boat handling, better helming, better teamwork, better tactics (wind shift and course management), and maybe better weather predictions too.

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1.  Hydraulic accumulators seem to be much larger on Oracle (or they use WAY less oil which I find unlikely).

No. All accumulators on all boats are identical.

2.  NZ can charge up their accumulators VERY quickly, but they do diminish to lowish pressure.

Accumulator pressure means less than you might think. Actuators move as the result of flow, they only need as much pressure as required to overcome the load. More mechanical advantage means you need more flow but at lower pressure. And, lots of flow can go from the pumps to the actuators without ever going through an accumulator; lots of flow never goes through accumulators because it's rule prohibited. The best way to think of it is that accumulator pressure gets low when the pumps can't meet demand and accumulator pressure gets high when there is more pump capacity than fluid demand. Without understanding the flow, pressure just doesn't tell you much.

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15 minutes ago, TN_Kiwi said:

right - they may have increased speed (about equal to ETNZ in terms of VMG (straightline speed is not important), but at too high a cost to flight control - ETNZ have that balanced right. The reason ETNZ bested all Challengers, and have been thrashing OR (look at the total time differential) is they are simply better sailors - better boat handling, better helming, better teamwork, better tactics (wind shift and course management), and maybe better weather predictions too.

Speed was overwhelming in Races 1 to 4 but tactics had been the biggest differentiator since OR leapfrogged the earlier speed gap. 

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5 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Speed was overwhelming in Races 1 to 4 but tactics had been the biggest differentiator since OR leapfrogged the earlier speed gap. 

Leapfrogged suggests Oracle came from behind and jumped clear over their rival, whereas in fact they jumped and fell flat on their face.

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31 minutes ago, marlowe said:

Leapfrogged suggests Oracle came from behind and jumped clear over their rival, whereas in fact they jumped and fell flat on their face.

:lol: or flat on their foils perhaps?

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48 minutes ago, ~Stingray~ said:

Speed was overwhelming in Races 1 to 4 but tactics had been the biggest differentiator since OR leapfrogged the earlier speed gap. 

Speed is relatively easy to gain in if you want to continue taking the boat towards the edge of instability. I'd argue that any team could have done it, and would have if they were in Oracle's shoes. ETNZ could probably go much faster too if they wanted to trade stability.

What's truely impressive about ETNZ is that they have achieved a relative boat speed advantage AND great stability, Oracle has been forced to rob Peter to pay Paul, and they are the worse for it.

Just to let you know how much Oracle have had to throw at it, they've sacrificed their AP foils meaning that they have essentially forfeited any chance of winning any future windy day races.

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3 hours ago, NZL5 said:

Stingers, all but VMG. Both up and downwind. I think you've gotten that one wrong.

No way is Oracle up on VMG.

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1 hour ago, marlowe said:

Leapfrogged suggests Oracle came from behind and jumped clear over their rival, whereas in fact they jumped and fell flat on their face.

5 days in the shed and testing. 4 races since. Score is 1-3 ETNZ- Oracle. Some leapfrog.

ETNZ werent exactly playing Scrabble for those 5 days. Their boat is now way more manouverable in the Box than OTUSA and Jimmy knows it. When he tries to do what PB does he falls off the foils, makes it tough from there.

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Hopefully tomorrow ETNZ will uncover the Boost button an sail around Team AUS.

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2 hours ago, KoW said:

VMG to wind direction gives a better idea of actual boat performance, VMG to the mark can actually be about sailing better - picking the wind shifts etc, minimizing manuevers by sailing the shortest distances between the boundaries etc... but isn't going to necessarily reveal which boat is "faster" (everything else being equal).

What we did see today was superb "race craft" by the NZ team, they covered when they had to, minimised distance sailed, maintained maximum "fly time" and nailed the starts. Hard to fault their performance.

Don't discount the probability they were yielding VMG to the mark at times to ensure they covered Spithill after the mistake yesterday... which may be giving a slightly false reading about ETNZ's relative boat speed.

What KOW said last sentence

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5 hours ago, ~Stingray~ said:

The numbers show better VMG by Oracle most of the time. Even today:

 

Polars on the data thread, ETNZ sailed in more pressure in Race 1.

Comparing only when boats were in average of 9 knots USA had better upwind VMG, NZL better downwind. 

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13 hours ago, Lartitude36S said:

How can you be faster with better VMG and still lose?

Because VMG is not VMC, and in a shifty course VMC is what counts!

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I think that Xerox team as a very similar average boat speed in this conditions but there tacks and jibes are unreliable and I think that this is up to there asymmetrical setup. Some times you think that omg where did they get that speed from and the next minute they are slower. Some times that tack and jibe very good, the next second they screw it up.

I think that they are faster when they are riding on there high speed/wind foil then ETNZ. They are however not capable to do reliable tacks and jibes on that side. Riding on there low speed/wind foil they are slower but does reliable tacks and jibes. As long as they can not tack and jibe in a reliable way with there high speed/wind foils in this wind conditions they will not win. If they could learn to tack and jibe with 100% reliability on the high speeders then it would be different. I don't think they will learn as that is the reason for lower wind foils. The controllability. That's why you have larger foils in lower wind conditions.

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14 hours ago, KoW said:

VMG to wind direction gives a better idea of actual boat performance, VMG to the mark can actually be about sailing better - picking the wind shifts etc, minimizing manuevers by sailing the shortest distances between the boundaries etc... but isn't going to necessarily reveal which boat is "faster" (everything else being equal).

What we did see today was superb "race craft" by the NZ team, they covered when they had to, minimised distance sailed, maintained maximum "fly time" and nailed the starts. Hard to fault their performance.

Don't discount the probability they were yielding VMG to the mark at times to ensure they covered Spithill after the mistake yesterday... which may be giving a slightly false reading about ETNZ's relative boat speed.

I agree.

Before the five days off, to windward TNZ would gain more than one metre/sec.  Now when both boats were close on the same tack, it was just under that but they still gained.

When they were separated by several hundred metres they were usually either in different breeze or they were footing off slightly.

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