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    • Zapata

      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

      Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules.  Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo.  Warning and or timeout for a first offense.  PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members.  See above for penalties.  Caveat:  if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods.  We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post.   We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking.  There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious.  There is no standard, we will know it when we see it.  If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining.  Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious.  Deal with it.  Welcome to anarchy.   If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to.  They will be explained to you soon enough.  
P_Wop

Hurricane Harvey - watch out, Texas

296 posts in this topic

Anyone around Corpus Christi and on the TX coast had better be getting ready for Hurricane Harvey.  ETA Friday

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

This one will probably be a Cat 3 or 4 when it arrives, and will slow down and lurk over the coastal area.  Apart from storm surge, it will dump a metric shed-load of rain.

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Yes, supposed to intensify a bunch, and stall out just after making landfall. Lots of rain predicted. 

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This is an interesting quote from the NOAA discussion #16.  My emphasis included.

"With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite concerning. Water vapor images indicate that the cyclone's outflow is expanding--indicative of low shear--and Harvey will be moving over a warm eddy of high oceanic heat content in the western Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. As a result of these conditions, several intensity models, including the ICON intensity consensus, are now explicit showing Harvey reaching major hurricane intensity. What's more astounding is that some of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices are incredibly high. As an example, the guidance is indicating a 70 percent chance of Harvey's winds increasing by 45 kt over the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance, the NHC official intensity forecast now calls for Harvey to reach major hurricane strength by 36 hours, before it reaches the middle Texas coast."

This might be a bad one, first since 2008.

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As predicted, latest report:

"Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph."

This one will be a Cat 4 when the core arrives, maybe more.  The SSTs are very high.

Where's Mark?

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29 minutes ago, P_Wop said:

As predicted, latest report:

"Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph."

This one will be a Cat 4 when the core arrives, maybe more.  The SSTs are very high.

Where's Mark?

I am here but was stuck in a meetings on and off the last few hours with more meetings scheduled for today/tonight. The improving structure and conditions should allow rapid to very rapid intensification prior to landfall. This could be a terrible storm for the Texas coastline. Plan ahead. He isn't moving fast so there is some time but the steering currents deteriorate according to the models just after landfall. Looks bad.

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Just ran the latest ECMWF. Hope it is WRONG*. Brings Harvey ashore as a top end 3 or low end CAT 4.  Stalls it. Retrogrades it back out into the Gulf. Restrengthens and moves NNE or NE and hits the LA/TX border area.  Bad news if this happens...Fingers crossed it does not. 

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21 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

Just ran the latest ECMWF. Hope it is WRONG*. Brings Harvey ashore as a top end 3 or low end CAT 4.  Stalls it. Retrogrades it back out into the Gulf. Restrengthens and moves NNE or NE and hits the LA/TX border area.  Bad news if this happens...Fingers crossed it does not. 

Thanks, Mark.  None of this is good at all.  The big worry is heavy rain continuing for 2 to 3 days.  Some forecasts are calling for 20-30".  Houston may have a flooding problem too, if rain floods come in from behind them across the bayou.

I don't even want to think about part 2 of your scenario.  Could New Orleans see a second hit?  Damn, I hope not.

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Currently 65 miles offshore due south of Louisiana. My GMDSS is going off every 20-30 minutes with updates on Harvey. So far out here we have no storm swells yet and 12 knots of breeze from 112°.  Hoping to finish with this rig and run in to Fourchon tonight before the bands reach this area. 

 

Mark I hope you are wrong as well but from what I am seeing it sounds like that's exactly what she will do. 

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My folks live in Rockport, which is very close to predicted landfall.  The city has issued a mandatory evacuation.  I'm sure surrounding cities are doing the same.  

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Be safe Texas. Looking pretty grim. 

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1 hour ago, DryArmour said:

Just ran the latest ECMWF. Hope it is WRONG*. Brings Harvey ashore as a top end 3 or low end CAT 4.  Stalls it. Retrogrades it back out into the Gulf. Restrengthens and moves NNE or NE and hits the LA/TX border area.  Bad news if this happens...Fingers crossed it does not. 

Can't you send it to Mar-A-Lago?

Mar_a_lago_presentday.0.jpg

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1 17/1500Z 13.1N/54.1W 35 45 W 17 1008 TropDp
1A 17/1800Z 13.1N/55.1W 35 45 W 17 1007 TropDp
2 17/2100Z 13.0N/55.8W 40 50 W 18 1004 TropSt
2A 18/0000Z 12.9N/56.5W 40 50 W 18 1005 TropSt
3 18/0300Z 13.0N/57.4W 40 50 W 18 1005 TropSt
3A 18/0600Z 13.0N/58.1W 40 50 W 17 1005 TropSt
4 18/0900Z 13.1N/59.1W 40 50 W 18 1004 TropSt
4A 18/1200Z 13.0N/60.3W 40 50 W 18 1005 TropSt
5 18/1500Z 13.1N/61.3W 40 50 W 21 1005 TropSt
5A 18/1800Z 13.2N/62.1W 40 50 W 21 1005 TropSt
6 18/2100Z 13.4N/62.9W 40 50 W 21 1005 TropSt
7 19/0300Z 13.7N/64.1W 40 50 W 18 1005 TropSt
8 19/0900Z 13.8N/65.9W 40 50 W 21 1005 TropSt
9 19/1500Z 13.9N/68.1W 40 50 W 22 1007 TropSt
11 20/0900Z 16.0N/126.1W 70 85 W 15 996 TrWave
12 23/1500Z 21.5N/92.5W 35 45 NW 9 1006 TropDp
12A 23/1800Z 21.5N/92.5W 35 45 Stnry -- 1005 TropDp
13 23/2100Z 21.6N/92.6W 35 45 NW 2 1005 TropDp
13A 23/0000Z 21.7N/92.5W 35 45 NW 2 1003 TropDp
14 24/0300Z 21.9N/92.6W 35 45 NW 2 1002 TropDp
14A 24/0600Z 22.6N/92.6W 45 60 NW 7 1001 TropSt
15 24/0900Z 23.2N/92.8W 75 90 N 10 995 TropSt
15A 24/1200Z 23.8N/93.0W 60 70 NNW 10 986 TropSt
16 24/1500Z 24.0N/93.3W 65 75 NNW 10 982 TropSt
17 24/1800Z 24.4N/93.6W 85 105 NNW 10 979 Hrricn
 

  Look at the last 12hrs of pressure drop... wow.

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45 minutes ago, By the lee said:

Can't you send it to Mar-A-Lago?

Oh, please please please please please please please please please please :D

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Yikes! Just saw a report predicting 20" of rain inland. Upper end possibility of 2 feet. 

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The last sentence is a horrible harbinger for the Gulf Coast. 

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
2100 UTC THU AUG 24 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEAST OF MATAGORDA TO
SARGENT TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IN ADDITION...INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  93.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  93.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N  93.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.5N  94.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.7N  96.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.8N  96.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.5N  97.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.7N  97.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N  96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 29.0N  95.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

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   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  HARVEY      AL092017  08/24/17  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    75    85    92    98   104   104   105    94    87    75    69    61    55
V (KT) LAND       75    85    92    98   104   104    61    38    30    28    27    27    27

LAND (KM)        394   322   254   196   151    22   -68  -128  -134  -111   -50   -17   -12
LAT (DEG N)     24.4  24.9  25.4  26.1  26.7  27.9  28.6  29.0  29.0  28.8  28.3  28.3  28.7
LONG(DEG W)     93.6  94.1  94.7  95.2  95.8  96.7  97.2  97.6  97.7  97.6  97.3  96.8  96.2
STM SPEED (KT)     8     7     8     8     7     6     3     1     0     2     3     2     3

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   75. LAT, LON:   24.4    93.6

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY     08/24/17  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  55% is  10.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  64% is   5.5 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  64% is   8.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  51% is  12.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  45% is  16.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  38% is   7.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  36% is   6.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  34% is   5.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    55.0%   63.6%   63.5%   51.4%   45.4%   37.8%   36.1%   34.1%
    Logistic:    66.3%   80.5%   75.2%   64.1%   41.9%   49.0%   32.0%   12.5%
    Bayesian:    23.7%    1.8%    0.8%    0.0%    0.0%    0.2%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:    48.4%   48.6%   46.5%   38.5%   29.1%   29.0%   22.7%   15.5%



** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY     08/24/2017  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)   ***    ***(***)     ***(***)     ***(***)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)     ER     ERR          ERR          ERR         PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  75    85    92    98   104   104    61    38    30    28    27    27    27
 18HR AGO           75    74    81    87    93    93    50    27    19    17    16    16    16
 12HR AGO           75    72    71    77    83    83    40    17   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  6HR AGO           75    69    66    65    71    71    28   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR           75    85    76    70    67    65    22   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  IN 12HR           75    85    92    83    77    73    30   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS

 

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Gulf companies starting to take precautions. Just had to send our Hurricane prep numbers to the office, and the rig we are at is starting to go through their checklists as well. Having my deck hands secure everything they can on deck as we speak. 

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Mandatory evacuation issued for Port Aransas.

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10 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Mandatory evacuation issued for Port Aransas.

Good call. The low lying areas in the Houston/Galveston areas should seriously bug out asap.

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In the works - dry storage boats in Galveston Bay area being moved, mandatory and recommended evacuations given to all the coastal areas. 

 

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Andrew hit South Florida 25 years ago today. Will Trump fuck up emergency response as badly as Bush did?

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1 minute ago, RKoch said:

Andrew hit South Florida 25 years ago today. Will Trump fuck up emergency response as badly as Bush did?

They can order in aid, the problem is likely to be that the flooding may be so bad, no one can get supplies where they need to go except by helicopter for a week or so.

 

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5 hours ago, d'ranger said:

In the works - dry storage boats in Galveston Bay area being moved, mandatory and recommended evacuations given to all the coastal areas. 

 

Think there's enough storm surge for Payco will end up like this again?

IMG_1218.JPG

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I think that will be the least of it.

Harvey has all the attributes of being a nasty one. This good article in the Chicago Tribune summarizes it all quite well:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/science/ct-harvey-perfect-storm-20170824-story.html

As they say, the recipe is: "Warm water. Check. Calm air at 40,000 feet . Check. Slow speed to dump maximum rain. Check."

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Hasn't intensified quite as much as expected. Still looking very bad.

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  HARVEY      AL092017  08/25/17  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    75    81    86    91    94    94    88    83    75    69    65    63    59
V (KT) LAND       75    81    86    91    94    72    44    33    29    28    27    27    26

LAND (KM)        307   228   161   121    74   -28   -81   -90   -68   -41    -8    -3    27
LAT (DEG N)     24.9  25.5  26.0  26.7  27.3  28.2  28.6  28.7  28.6  28.5  28.5  28.8  29.2
LONG(DEG W)     94.3  95.0  95.6  96.1  96.6  97.1  97.4  97.4  97.2  96.9  96.4  95.6  94.7
STM SPEED (KT)     9     8     8     8     7     3     2     0     1     2     3     4     4

 

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Latest:

SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 95.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

Summary:

A. Wind is up 20

B. Pressure is dropping

C. Aimed directly at Corpus Cristi.

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Best wishes for everyone in that area.  I remember as a kid when Hurricane Agnes hit the eastern shore of MD -  those storms are scary, and I hope everyone comes thru OK. 

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Getting ready for the call. This is so deja-vu, my Labor Day was in Katrina shelters last time this happened. Can it just turn around and go back? This is going to make a mess out of Texas :(

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7am CDT ...105 Kts 950 mb

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This is God's punishment for the Obama presidency...or Ted Cruz...or Alexis Texas...or...

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21 hours ago, DryArmour said:

Just ran the latest ECMWF. Hope it is WRONG*. Brings Harvey ashore as a top end 3 or low end CAT 4.  Stalls it. Retrogrades it back out into the Gulf. Restrengthens and moves NNE or NE and hits the LA/TX border area.  Bad news if this happens...Fingers crossed it does not. 

How uncommon is that?  Looks like it stalls short of ol' San Anton' and retraces back offshore all the while sucking up moisture off the Gulf, then heading east towards Houston by Wednesday.  Wednesday.  Wow.

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Port Aransas seeing gusts to about 40 already.  NAS Corpus G 50.

Time to finish tying them down and get out. 

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People staying in their trailers.  I thought that only happened in Florida.

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1 hour ago, Never was said:

This is God's punishment for the Obama presidency...or Ted Cruz...or Alexis Texas...or...

We'll just have to wait to see what the new Douche' Bag has in store for us....................

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Hoping to see Harvey hit me in San Antonio.

Not because I welcome a hurricane in my hometown, but because it it comes here, that means it isn't sitting on the coast dropping three feet of rain over the next four days.

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Good looking storm.  Tight rotation, solid eye. 

received_10212949407597147.jpeg

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Reading news reports that a lot of people are going to ride it out, particularly in Corpus Christi. That may not end well....

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Latest:

SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

 

Again, summary:

This thing's now a cat 3, and there's possibility of further intensification

Windspeed is up another 20 mph to 120

Central pressure is down to 943 mb, down 24 mb in the last 12 hours!

Hang onto your hats, guys.

 

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3 hours ago, southerncross said:

People staying in their trailers.  I thought that only happened in Florida.

They moved here for work?

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Evac notices have been all the news and at least one sheriff stated if you are in a mandatory and don't leave then don't call us. Not going to risk a deputy for someone who refused to leave when ordered.  Storm surge is going to be big as this continues to build - Almost all the damage from Ike in 08 was from the surge and it's build up was very similar. With Ike there was almost no rain - this will be compounded as heavy rains get backed up by the surge.  Harvey has the potential to fuck up everything from Corpus to NOLA.  Let's hope it doesn't.

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1 hour ago, Your Mom said:

Hoping to see Harvey hit me in San Antonio.

Not because I welcome a hurricane in my hometown, but because it it comes here, that means it isn't sitting on the coast dropping three feet of rain over the next four days.

Be careful what you ask for - You'll have 21 hours of TS winds and 9 to 12 inches of rain in the next 72 hours

Below are the highest rainfall totals for the next 72 hours using Hurrevac from FEMA, USACE, and NOAA.

 

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TX Refugio          10.00 to 11.00 Inches      10.00 to 11.00 Inches      7.00 to 8.00 Inches           27.00 Inches or more

TX Calhoun         10.00 to 11.00 Inches      10.00 to 11.00 Inches      7.00 to 8.00 Inches           27.00 Inches or more

TX Goliad             10.00 to 11.00 Inches      10.00 to 11.00 Inches      7.00 to 8.00 Inches           27.00 Inches or more

TX Jackson          5.00 to 6.00 Inches           10.00 to 11.00 Inches      7.00 to 8.00 Inches           22.00 Inches or more

TX Wharton        5.00 to 6.00 Inches           10.00 to 11.00 Inches      7.00 to 8.00 Inches           22.00 Inches or more

TX Dewitt            4.00 to 5.00 Inches           10.00 to 11.00 Inches      7.00 to 8.00 Inches           21.00 Inches or more

TX Colorado        4.00 to 5.00 Inches           10.00 to 11.00 Inches      7.00 to 8.00 Inches           21.00 Inches or more

TX Lavaca             4.00 to 5.00 Inches           10.00 to 11.00 Inches      7.00 to 8.00 Inches           21.00 Inches or more

TX Gonzales       4.00 to 5.00 Inches           10.00 to 11.00 Inches      7.00 to 8.00 Inches           21.00 Inches or more

TX Victoria           4.00 to 5.00 Inches           10.00 to 11.00 Inches      7.00 to 8.00 Inches           21.00 Inches or more

TX Matagorda    9.00 to 10.00 Inches        6.00 to 7.00 Inches           5.00 to 6.00 Inches           20.00 Inches or more

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20 minutes ago, svitale said:

Be careful what you ask for - You'll have 21 hours of TS winds and 9 to 12 inches of rain in the next 72 hours

Below are the highest rainfall totals for the next 72 hours using Hurrevac from FEMA, USACE, and NOAA.

 

Understood and taking appropriate caution.  Tracking it all day.  Just saying it's better for the broader good if this thing tracks across land and spreads the rain out than if it drops 3 feet of rain in the range from Port Aransas to New Orleans.

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Latest:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 96.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

~~~

In the last 3 hours:

Intensity and windspeed increasing, central pressure dropping further, and he has 5 hours over warm water to carry on with more of all that.

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Posted (edited)

Cat 4 -- 130 mph. 

Not fucking good.

Edited by Sean

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Just now, RKoch said:

It may reach Cat4 by landfall.

Fixed my typo, it's cat 4 now. Fucked up.

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Good luck, Smackdaddy

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Best wishes, for a safe outcome, to all involved.

Harvey looks to be a mean bastard.....

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Houston is still OK... for now.

ABC 13 news is saying that the eye pressure dropped to 942 mb...

46Gusts in Galveston

42G in Brazos.

Still a lot of uncertainty on what it is going to do after it sits between Corpus Christi and San Antonio for 1 to 2 days...

Some models show it going back at sea and land a second time and pass right over Houston. Others more to the East, and others more to the West.

West is good... West is good... More time on land, and moving. that's what we need.

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One hour ago:

~~~

A station at Aransas Pass run by the Texas Coastal Observing
Network recently reported a sustained wind of 90 mph with
a gust to 108 mph

~~~

Harvey will hang overhead not for 1 to 2 days, but 3 to 4 days, with wind slowly diminishing to a mellow 50 knots, but dropping lots of water continuously, picked up from the Gulf.  Floodwater coming from the land meets storm surge from the ocean - not a good picture.

Anyone who has not yet got out of Corpus Christi and especially the coast to the East is nuts.  Houston will be hit hard as well with flood water from behind, probably on Monday.  Refineries will be offline for some time.

This won't end well.  I'm astonished that people think they can just hunker down and ride this out.  I'm not a pessimist, but this may be as bad as Katrina.

~~~

EDIT - 5 minutes ago:

A station at Aransas Pass run by the Texas Coastal Observing
Network recently reported a sustained wind of 102 mph (165 km/h)
with a gust to 120 mph (193 km/h).

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Local news in Texas (Corpus Christi I think) just reported an apartment building in Portland collapsed with people inside. They didn't have further details.

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i saw they had gusts over 130 in PT. Aransas as the eye wall came over. this thing is nasty , showing rain of 40+ inches in some areas.

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37 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Local news in Texas (Corpus Christi I think) just reported an apartment building in Portland collapsed with people inside. They didn't have further details.

Correction. Rockport. No confirmation yet. Police sitting tight until daylight.

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12 minutes ago, bigrpowr said:

i saw they had gusts over 130 in PT. Aransas as the eye wall came over. this thing is nasty , showing rain of 40+ inches in some areas.

Local news out there showed European Model numbers that predicted as much as 57"! 

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He's still a hurricane, although partially over land. Still feeding from that warm water for a few more days.  Ugh.

~~~

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 97.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NNE OF ROCKPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

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Reports filtering in to Corpus Christi TV of a lot of building damage in Rockport. Also roof blew off a radio statio in Corpus Christi. All this is unconfirmed, as first responders can't go out yet. No reports from barrier islands, where I think damage may be very severe.

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Earlier building damage report was the Fairfield Inn Hotel. 128 people taken to a shelter. I assume during the eye. Second building was a senior housing complex roof collapse. Unknown number of people taken to jail for shelter, 10 treated for injuries. Rockport HS badly damaged, and unknown damage to courthouse. Shooting in Rockport in an apparent home invasion. Details unknown.

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This is why I sold the boat we kept on Padre island.

 

Prayers to everyone there.

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13 minutes ago, bmiller said:

This is why I sold the boat we kept on Padre island.

 

Prayers to everyone there.

Hurricanes are tough on sand bars. I hope that's not "the Former Island Known As Padre" now.

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40 days to scheduled start of Harvest Moon - Galveston to Port A.  This has to be keeping some people up at night.  Hoping damage isn't as bad as forecast in that area and of course hoping the flooding from there to Houston isn't either. If tracking stays on forecast Houston/Galveston will miss major wind and surge damage. Flooding is anybody's guess, everything is well saturated so just standing by. I don't remember an event scheduled to last this long.  

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Given how flat the area south of SA is, it's all going to be run off and very much prolong the coastal flooding but likely spare a lot of the inland areas from "feet" of water once away from the river beds. Victoria will be hammered and everything inside the barrier island will be wet for a long time. 

I have to wonder how all the filled in areas around Ingleside will do. 

 

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4 hours ago, d'ranger said:

If tracking stays on forecast Houston/Galveston will miss major wind and surge damage. 

Fingers crossed!

Quote

Flooding is anybody's guess,

I hope my brother left some ground tackle out in case his boat floats off the hard....lol

Actually, I don't know if all the planking's in place. The seams are open for sure.

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Seems to have made a huge mess of Aransas area, especially Rockport. Any news on the severity of the damage yet?

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25 minutes ago, Jkdubz808 said:

Seems to have made a huge mess of Aransas area, especially Rockport. Any news on the severity of the damage yet?

It sounds like Rockport was hit hard. Several buildings severely damaged, inc courthouse, HS, and a hotel. 

http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-harvey-preventing-rockport-texas-emergency-crews-responding-calls/story?id=49433327

it sounds like Houston is already getting flood waters. If the storm moves east, as several models indicate, NO will see some heavy rain. Last thing they need right now.

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As of right now, Harvey's eye is parked near Cuero, about 70 miles SE of me in San Antonio.  Sucks for them because the Guadalupe River floods the coastal plain badly there.  And the Guadalupe basin is being hammered.  It'll be a giant lake for a week or more.

Unreal how little rain we've had at my house; only about an inch since midnight.  Wind has only been gusting into the mid-20s.  So close yet thankfully so very far.  

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I live SE of Houston and it's about the same here, this morning saw not much happening so went to the grocery and the pharmacy and been doing chores. West of Houston it's a different story. My better half has family in Austin and Beaumont and they are getting more rain than we are. Seriously, has rained maybe a couple of inches. Outer bands just spiraled east of us.  Now if Harvey goes north and does a u-turn this could change bigley.  Things are full so a big rain will result in flooding.  So far it's been a non event which we are thankful for.  Thoughts go out to those who haven't been so fortunate - done my share of cleanup and it's always hot, humid and it sucks. 

Waiting isn't the hardest part but it's not great either..

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Buddy sent me this pic from the port there when it passed over. 

FB_IMG_1503790091326.jpg

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I have a hard time taking pity on sailboat owners who leave roller furling jibs and bimimi/dodgers up when a hurricane comes through. Especially when hauled out! 

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2 hours ago, Jkdubz808 said:

Buddy sent me this pic from the port there when it passed over. 

FB_IMG_1503790091326.jpg

Crews on 3 tugs in Corpus Christi harbor were rescued by CG.

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17 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

I have a hard time taking pity on sailboat owners who leave roller furling jibs and bimimi/dodgers up when a hurricane comes through. Especially when hauled out! 

The storm developed very quickly.

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Those roller furling sails should have been taken down before the boat was even hauled if it was hurricane season. No hall pass 69.

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5 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

Those roller furling sails should have been taken down before the boat was even hauled if it was hurricane season. No hall pass 69.

I agree. Take the job down if the boat is on jack stands. Even a summer t-storm can unroll it and topple the boat.

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Around here, most yards won't haul you with furling sails bent on, even for a short haul or survey. 

Boats in the water?  Hard for absentee owners to get there on short notice. 

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1 minute ago, Innocent Bystander said:

Around here, most yards won't haul you with furling sails bent on, even for a short haul or survey. 

Boats in the water?  Hard for absentee owners to get there on short notice. 

They ought not be bent on for boats left in the water either. However, it's SOP for people to leave them on all the time and many boats in many yards have roller sails bent on. It may be bad practice but it's common practice. I take mine off the roller at the dock almost without fail. I can still feel sympathy for folks who were doing the typical thing and had other priorities when the storm developed. 

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It looks like a big part of the damage to Rockport and surrounding towns was wind. Very lucky the surge was maybe half the forecast - 6' instead of a possible 12.  The one death was due to a fire, if the surge had been higher a bunch of those folks who rode it out would have died. The surge is what what wiped out so much in the Galveston area during Ike.  Lots of rain to come - a band going across Houston dropping more than 3" per hour.  Current band isn't that wide but if you are in the path you are getting it big time.  The next day or 2 could get really ugly, winds dropping and so is the water. I am on the edge of this one and the lightning is almost non stop, it's raining but nothing like folks a few miles to the west are getting. 

As to leaving sails on? Stupid, many is the time I have gone from one marina to another stripping canvas and adding dock lines for owners who couldn't get here.  Was in touch with several in case Harvey shifted our way.  If nothing else just use extra lines to wrap the crap out of them.  I have a distant memory of walking out on a flooded finger pier, pulling the boat to me to get on and when finished the wind was so strong I couldn't budge it. Luckily someone saw me, put his arm out and I walked down the dock line.  That was 50 kts or so. 

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update - So the band shifted and holy crap - power going off and on and raining a frog strangler.

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Hi everyone.  My wife and I recently moved out of Rockport and relocated inland about 140 miles.  My friends and family still on the coast are subject to devastating financial ruin from Harvey, but most residents of the Texas coast understand the risks of living there.  No sane person wants to see someone else suffer, but please offer your empathy, not your sympathy.  We Texans are not all idiots as depicted by some (not all) of the media.  We accept the risks as a reward for the climate, wildlife, and friendly social structure.  The scope of the damage is difficult to show in social media.  Really is significant - if you overlay the affected area over New England you will get a better perspective.  If you wish to come help, thank you,  please have an open mind, be friendly, and let us buy you a beer, or tea, or whatever - that's what we do.

Charlie

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WIfe and I have lived here in Clear Lake, a sub of south Houston on the shore for almost two years, and a year in our new to us house. Our street drains quickly but that said, our house is facing a cul-de-sac, and we're flooded with water working its way up our driveway. We just emptied the last bits out of the garage to get my car in the garage to save it. Not like we can go anywhere..

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3 hours ago, d'ranger said:

update - So the band shifted and holy crap - power going off and on and raining a frog strangler.

Hmm..maybe someone should start a rollcall thread..you may have "friends" in trouble only a few miles away.

One thing I love about boating communities..when the chips are down everyone pitches in.."friend" and "foe" alike.

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12 hours ago, RedTuna said:

Unreal how little rain we've had at my house; only about an inch since midnight.  Wind has only been gusting into the mid-20s.  So close yet thankfully so very far.  

We've got remnants of a tropical system parked over FL and I've had almost 5 inches since yesterday.

Rain runs right off my high ground into my swamp so my place can't flood from rain. I was at a rental house across the harbor yesterday and the whole neighborhood was ankle-deep. Raining more this morning. Places that can flood will today.

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6 hours ago, RKoch said:

 

image.jpg

image.jpg

Was the surge 6' in the bay or the gulf. Aransas Pass must have been flowing. 

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13 hours ago, ARumRunner said:

That #blueshed tho

And the destruction :(

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1nJElGcVcTpeZJVyxEbzJw

 

 

It's always amazing how some things come through the storm. Like that nice, old Bertram in the wreckage of the boat barn. Doesn't appear to have a scratch on it. Extracting it from that mess will be difficult and dangerous, if possible. But if that's a restored one with diesels, it's worth some money. If not, it's worth restoring. If it can be extracted.

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I am fine, still have power and immediate area shows no sign of flooding.  Lots of people aren't so lucky, hoping this storm doesn't sit here like some predictions show.  Yesterday was thinking it sucks, no Harvest Moon race this year, now thinking it sucks so many people have lost so much and hoping it doesn't get worse.

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Good to hear you and Ross are still alright.  Kinda hard to comprehend 30 inches of rain in such a short time, with half again as much, or more, in the next day or two.  Stay safe.

Texans will make it through this, rebuild and come out stronger for it.  It's what we do.

EDIT:  KHOU is boned.  They evacuated their station.  One poor reporter and film crew have been talking/filming non-stop for an hour or so from a bridge, as there is no way to switch to other field reporters.  Her voice is giving out but she's giving it her all.  Way to go, cowgirl!

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Widespread flooding being reported in Houston this morning, especially in the south. Also some flooding reported downtown and the Medical Center. Emergency responders are telling people to get on their roofs, not in their attics. They're also asking for volunteers with airboats. 

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Extensive flooding now in downtown Houston. NWS predicts 15-25" more rain over the next 2 days. 

 

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if Harvey hangs around like predicted it's gonna take a while to dry out. Most friends and family here still ok but ditches and bayous are reaching capacity.  My neighborhood has flooded cars from people driving last night, those streets are now dry but you can't get to any of the freeways.  While checking on a friend she got a message that an older woman not far from here is in her attic with her dogs. Get on the roof? OK, how does an older woman with pets climb on the roof.  Wait until you can swim there? It's 5' now, she needs 3 more to get up there. Wishing I had a small boat to help out. 

I have seen worse but never with a forecast of heavy rains for the coming days.  Let's hope Harvey fades away. 

edit: I am reminded of something I was told after Katrina when so many people who had little lost everything:

When the flood comes the wet get wetter. 

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