• Announcements

    • Zapata

      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

      Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules.  Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo.  Warning and or timeout for a first offense.  PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members.  See above for penalties.  Caveat:  if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods.  We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post.   We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking.  There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious.  There is no standard, we will know it when we see it.  If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining.  Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious.  Deal with it.  Welcome to anarchy.   If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to.  They will be explained to you soon enough.  
A-NU-START

Irma

1,422 posts in this topic

flying cats..... only in this world that we now inhabit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, vibroman said:

Just saw 40 or 50 boom trucks staged off I 10 here in LA ready to head south

cant upload pics from phone

Yes. I meant to post an update of Florida news. Governor has pre-staged 8000 national guard. Also ordered 12 million gallons of gasoline delivered by tanker trucks with police escort to stations on the major highways. He's a douche-bag, but he's done a bang-up job so far. Got to give him props where due. Linemen ready to restore power.

evacuation of the Keys was ordered tuesday, good move. They're nearly evacuated. Traffic still a mess...some peep evacuating that may not need to. Impossible to evacuate the entire state.

minor news... Bucs/Dolphins game for Sunday in Miami rescheduled later. Rays were supposed to host a 3 game series against the Yankees at home. It was moved to Citi Zfield in NYC. Rays chartered a bigger jet so players could bring families...very nice move.

were ready. Bring it. We'll survive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

flying cats..... only in this world that we now inhabit.

Cats fly in Cat 5. Good to know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

don't think they are solar panels but show where roof tiles blown off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, RKoch said:

Cats fly in Cat 5. Good to know.

hurricane-wind-scale-look-bermuda-cat-1-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, NautiGirl said:

I'm not sure if they edited the campaign information, but they claim that the money their raising is to "help the cruising community"

 

Yes, they did change the gofundme description. Originally the $50k request was to replace their boat and continue their journey. The backlash was swift and pointed. I guess they got the point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, LoopyGirdleSniffer said:

Ummmm Those rooftop solar panels are producing hot water not electricity.  If the water has been shut off they are just pretty decorations.  

Water in their header tanks will be liquid gold with water guy off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, SailMedic said:

So in the White House press briefing happening now, Tom Bossert, Homeland Security Advisor stated the director of Department of Homeland Security has the ability to waive the Jones Act???  Purpose is to get foreign tankers in to get refined fuel to evacuation zones.  I thought it took an act of God to waive the Jones Act.

If I recall, the battle was fought in the aftermath of Katrina and exceptions were authorized. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone know how Willy T's Floating Bar did during Irma?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Is the National Hurricane Center Underestimating Irma’s Storm Surge?

Posted By Doug Johnson Hatlem On September 8, 2017 @ 1:53 am In articles 2015 | Comments Disabled

In 2015, ten full years after Hurricane Katrina, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) finallybegan making projections in advance regarding potential storm surge. This even though “[s]torm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a hurricane,” according to NHC [pdf]. In fact, the “fatalities that we saw in Sandy [117] and in Katrina [1,800+] were mostly, not exclusively but mostly, seawater from storm surge.” Currently, NHC is projecting that many areas along the coast in southern Florida, including in and around Miami, have a 10% or greater chance of a strong storm surge. The worst areas, particularly just north of the Everglades and in Homestead, have a chance to hit the top category (red) of 9+ feet. But is 9+ feet a reasonable high end category?
irma-storm-surge-cp.png?w=1000
Hurricane Andrew (1992) saw storm surges in southern Florida of about 4-7 feet in the worst places with one recording (at Burger King Headquarters) of nearly 17 feet, but the worst projections of a massive, deadly surge did not materialize.

In this article Jeffrey Masters, co-founder of The Weather Underground and a former“Hurricane Hunter” with NOAA, helpfully discusses the key factors that determine the magnitude of a particular storm surge during a hurricane. The critical factor is size of the hurricane, rather than the two more well-known factors of wind speed and barometric pressure. Masters compares Hurricane Katrina (a category 3 hurricane upon land fall) and the much stronger Hurricane Camille (category 5, also a land fall in Louisiana, 1969). Even though two categories less intense on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, “Katrina’s radius of maximum winds was about 30 miles, double Camille’s,” and “Katrina set in motion a volume of water about four times greater than Camille did.”

So how does Hurricane Irma compare to Hurricane Andrew in terms of size? Quite frighteningly so, actually. While other factors (such as high tide or low tide at land fall, where direct land fall actually occurs, and the level of barometric pressure when it hits) will contribute to the storm surge levels, it is the massive difference between Andrew (left in this graphic) versus Irma (right) that is giving me a terrible feeling in the pit of my stomach. (I had been scheduled to officiate a wedding in Miami this Saturday.)
irma-size-v-andrew.png?w=1000

Officials in Florida have used the storm surge projections to determine where to suggest or mandate evacuation. If the surge is like Sandy’s (10-12 feet in the worst spots), the NHC projections of 9+ feet at the upper end of the scale may seem quite justified. If, however, the monster size of Irma means a surge more like Katrina’s, nearly 28 feet at it’s highest as discussed by Masters, we may be looking a scale of devastation and loss of life that will raise very serious questions about whether adequate and accurate information was provided in advance to decision makers in Florida.

As of Tuesday, according to Masters, Irma’s radius of maximum winds was 35 miles across, five miles wider than Katrina’s, and growing. This could very well mean a storm surge of 15-20 feet or more for Florida, potentially more than double the 9 feet that begins NHC’s highest category.

At this point, we may only be able to hope and pray for the best. However, if you are reading this in southern Florida ahead of Irma’s land fall and can still make a choice to evacuate, it is highly advisable.

Doug Johnson Hatlem is best known for his work as a street pastor and advocate with Toronto’s homeless population from 2005-2013. He is now a film producer and free-lance writer based in Chicago.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Kingstonsail said:

hurricane-wind-scale-look-bermuda-cat-1-

I shouldn't be laughing with all the devastation this monster is bringing, but I can't help myself.  That is funny.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, RKoch said:

Governor has pre-staged 8000 national guard. Also ordered 12 million gallons of gasoline delivered by tanker trucks with police escort to stations on the major highways. He's a douche-bag, but he's done a bang-up job so far. Got to give him props where due.

I have to second this. He's a crook and I didn't vote for him but Gov Scott has done pretty much everything he should do and nothing (that we know about yet) that he shouldn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dalenz said:

don't think they are solar panels but show where roof tiles blown off.

that is what I thought I saw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, mapsonburt said:

I shouldn't be laughing with all the devastation this monster is bringing, but I can't help myself.  That is funny.  

 

           i shouldn't be asking for a pic of tits with all the pussy about but I can't help myself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, By the lee said:

 

That's all a bunch of poppycock. There a few areas of Florida that could see 15-20' in a worst case scenerio. If the storm stays ashore up the peninsula, nowhere will see that. 

Katrina...nearly 30' of surge going up Bay St Louis , an enclosed shallow bay where the storm made landfall. Similar situation occured in the '38 hurricane, where the surge piled up into Narraganset Bay with no escape, and flooded  Providence. New Orleans was on the fringe of Katrina...it flooded well after the storm when poorly constructed levees failed. Most of the city is below sea level. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, RKoch said:

That's all a bunch of poppycock. There a few areas of Florida that could see 15-20' in a worst case scenerio. If the storm stays ashore up the peninsula, nowhere will see that. 

Katrina...nearly 30' of surge going up Bay St Louis , an enclosed shallow bay where the storm made landfall. Similar situation occured in the '38 hurricane, where the surge piled up into Narraganset Bay with no escape, and flooded  Providence. New Orleans was on the fringe of Katrina...it flooded well after the storm when poorly constructed levees failed. Most of the city is below sea level. 

That's what I was thinking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, RKoch said:

That's all a bunch of poppycock. There a few areas of Florida that could see 15-20' in a worst case scenerio. If the storm stays ashore up the peninsula, nowhere will see that. 

Katrina...nearly 30' of surge going up Bay St Louis , an enclosed shallow bay where the storm made landfall. Similar situation occured in the '38 hurricane, where the surge piled up into Narraganset Bay with no escape, and flooded  Providence. New Orleans was on the fringe of Katrina...it flooded well after the storm when poorly constructed levees failed. Most of the city is below sea level. 

They finally fixed it but Houston used to to have at least one intersection that had sunk below sea level.

Jus sayin. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Lono said:

That's what I was thinking.

Worst case scenerio is if the storm goes up Floridas west coast, just offshore. There will be a pretty big surge and heavy surf the entire coastline. Charlotte Harbor up by Punta Gorda will see 12-15' of surge and flooding. Tampa will get it bad, downtown will be underwater. Further north, Big Bend area will see 15' of surge. But that's all a worst case. If the eye remains ashore, the wind will blow offshore for most of the storm. In that case, the worst surge will be in Miami from Biscayne Bay, and the Keys flooding from the backside, from Florida Bay, just after the eye passes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bring it. Locusts and frogs we can handle. We already got loose tigers.

 

image.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nefarious hickey trees? Pretty sure they're a sign of the alpaca's lips.

Seriously bad here now:

rgb0-lalo.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Next 36 hours are going to suck down there. Everyone be as safe as possible. I figure I'll be down afterwards when travel opens for clean up etc. Thoughts and prayers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bad news for Naples and my Aunt.

Good thing my family sold the house and boat on San Marco.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, RKoch said:

Cats fly in Cat 5. Good to know.

J105s might even plane...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

surge varies with coast and bottom shapes

just like tides do

some places like jax get double the tide range or more then miami or the keys

ANDREW had less surge then other weaker  storms because of where it hit BOTTOM AND SHORE SHAPES

esp on the main land the off shore islands [keys] go under but surge does not go very far inland here

I am in flood zone X at 12 ft floor el but did not flood in ANDREW AND WAS IN THE EYE WALL

WE ARE UNDER A EVACUATION  ORDER BUT AS THE STORM HAS SHIFTED WEST NOT GOING

MIAMI DODGE A BULLET OF NUKE DESTRUCTION SIZE

NIPPLES IS GOING TO GET A MAJOR DISASTER [NAPLES]

AND FLA BAY AN ECO-DISASTER AND THE SOUTHERN GLADES ALSO

and we a only at the 1/2 way point [peak] of the season !!! 3 cat 4/5 more to come?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Raz'r said:

J105s might even plane...

Might? In Ivan ours planed easily !!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Lono said:

Frogs

That right there is about 20 miles east of me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Each update moves the track further west. Yikes! We might have a pretty rough ride. Think I'll just skip the 11pm update and brace myself for the morning. Already have plywood and screws to cover windows in sunroom if it looks like we're getting a southerly blow. Friend coming by in morning to pick up a couple spare sheets. Her neighbor will help her cut it and nail it on.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wind reported up to 165. 11pm update will probably bump it up to Cat 5 again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11pm cat 5 again !!!

a little shift west in the track after the turn

 

btw does anyone have access to the wind speed bands outside the cat 5 center eyewall

how thick is the eyewall in this beast

not the common eye size as that is the CALM part they always say the size of

how far from the eye OUT ward are the cat 5 winds where do they drop a cat or 2

how many miles out  to a 5 mph avg speed drop

how many to a 10 mph drop or 20 and on down

lots of color pic of TS force winds and H cat 1 but little more info ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Varan said:

Y'all might need a bit of this...

 

 

The REAL Doors...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, nota said:

11pm cat 5 again !!!

a little shift west in the track after the turn

 

btw does anyone have access to the wind speed bands outside the cat 5 center eyewall

how thick is the eyewall in this beast

not the common eye size as that is the CALM part they always say the size of

how far from the eye OUT ward are the cat 5 winds where do the drop a cat or 2

how many miles out  to a 5 mph avg speed drop

how many to a 10 mph drop or 20 and on down

lots of color pic of TS force winds and H cat 1 but little more info ?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=wind_probs_50_F120

 

Lots of toys to play with there

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Bruno said:

How does Cuba not get hammered?

I'm sure they are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Bruno said:

How does Cuba not get hammered?

Out of rum

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, nota said:

how thick is the eyewall in this beast

There's and eye wall replacement cycle in there, so it varies:

last48hrs.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RKoch said:

Music for the evening. 

 

And if you listen for it at the end: 

I need some time alone.

 

Great song/gtoup.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bruno said:

How does Cuba not get hammered?

Right on, who's thinking of Cuba here ?

1 hour ago, Dex Sawash said:

Out of rum

Very funny asshole ! You selfish cunts in Florida can flea in their cars, houses insured, or what have you.

They have just a little shabby house, and that's now gone, for sure.

Have not had time to keep up with all the posts, but nobody seems to give a shit about the poor countries.

That's all for now!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Fiji said:

Right on, who's thinking of Cuba here ?

Very funny asshole ! You selfish cunts in Florida can flea in their cars, houses insured, or what have you.

They have just a little shabby house, and that's now gone, for sure.

Have not had time to keep up with all the posts, but nobody seems to give a shit about the poor countries.

That's all for now!

...agree,,, they seem to be.... 'out of the environment'  for folks here.  :mellow:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, couchsurfer said:
1 hour ago, Fiji said:

Right on, who's thinking of Cuba here ?

...agree,,, they seem to be.... 'out of the environment'  for folks here.  :mellow:

To be fair, Curba is listed under the first key message in NOAA's bulletins right now. The BBC has a headline story on Cuba right now. Irma is just now going ashore or over the keys so it's too soon for much reporting to get out. Irma is running left of expectations so Cuba is getting hit harder than expected. You two may not be seeing the concern but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Rule69 said:

To be fair, Curba is listed under the first key message in NOAA's bulletins right now. The BBC has a headline story on Cuba right now. Irma is just now going ashore or over the keys so it's too soon for much reporting to get out. Irma is running left of expectations so Cuba is getting hit harder than expected. You two may not be seeing the concern but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Fair enough, I know, there will be concern of course. Just did not see it when exactly as you say  "Irma is running left of expectations so Cuba is getting hit harder than expected". I have also become a bit over sensitive after days of watching every bit of video of this enormous tragedy. And like many here, I have a great affinity with the Caribbean, so very many good memories, of the good people in particulary. And btw, I had indeed seen just the headline of that BBC story, "Hurricane Irma: Cuba hit with strong winds and heavy rain." Yea, strong winds, my arse ! Will read the article now that I have calmed down a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AFP_S89CO.jpg&w=1484

 (Adalberto Roque/AFP/Getty Images)

"Cubans load their belongings Sept. 8 ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Irma in Caibarién."

see what I mean...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We might see more reports out of Cuba if the internet were not censored there, but that's yet another thing they do better than the USA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Uncooperative Tom said:

We might see more reports out of Cuba if the internet were not censored there, but that's yet another thing they do better than the USA.

let's not go there now, please.

go here instead if you like.

http://www.cadenagramonte.cu/english/show/articles/26669:minute-by-minute-the-hurricane-irma-affects-cuba

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Fiji said:

let's not go there now, please.

It's not selfish cunts from Florida who censor the internet down there. You want reports from Cuba? Blame the people censoring them, not people in another country, most of whom don't like that censorship.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well didn't wake up to good news...the beast as of now will savage the SW coast of Florida...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those looking for info on T&C, looks like Club Med Turks & Caicos has managed to get some comms out on Facebook - sounds like everyone at the resort survived, but not much more info as of last night.  https://www.facebook.com/ClubMedTurkoise/

"Hurricane Irma Update:

On September 7, 2017, Hurricane Irma passed to the south of our resort of Club Med Turkoise in the Turks & Caicos. While the impact was felt throughout the resort, we are pleased to report that all guests and staff who remained on site are safe. The safety, security and well-being of our guests and staff are always, and remains, the highest priority in every situation and we had no injuries to our guests. We are currently assessing the situation in the resort and awaiting information from the airlines and local officials on the reopening of the airport. More information will be shared as it becomes available."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Starting to look like a lot of people in Florida are going to miss the really big bullet that could have easilly had...still pretty bad for many though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Starting to look like a lot of people in Florida are going to miss the really big bullet that could have easilly had...still pretty bad for many though.

I think you are right. Looks like Cuba is taking it hard. As I watch the tv tracker it looks like this is shiwing the first signs of weakening. All red changing to orange then yellow. No one has mentioned it at all and maybe just stupid hope but fingers crossed for everyone dealing with this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Talked with someone, last night. at the YC who has inside knowledge of the new GOES satellite.

He said we, public and news media, are only seeing 10% of what it can do.

Can't wait to see at least 50%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5am nhc report says she has weakend a little now 135kt

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Fiji said:

Right on, who's thinking of Cuba here ?

Very funny asshole ! You selfish cunts in Florida can flea in their cars, houses insured, or what have you.

They have just a little shabby house, and that's now gone, for sure.

Have not had time to keep up with all the posts, but nobody seems to give a shit about the poor countries.

That's all for now!

Nobody cares? Come on now...we're not the former owners of Mischief

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Raz'r said:

J105s might even plane...

no :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

8:00 am NHC advisory - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/042347.shtml?

 

Excerpt -

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by a reconnaissance plane and Cuban radars near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 79.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), along the north coast of Cuba. A northwest motion is expected to begin later today with a turn toward the north-northwest tonight or on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to move near or over the north coast of Cuba this morning, and will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to be near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.

The interaction with the terrain of Cuba has weakened the hurricane a little.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts, but Irma remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was 937 mb (27.67 inches).

 

IMG_3272.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

another request to take the PA shit to PA, i mean wtf.  Have spent the last week viewing mostly flood damage around Houston, very little wind damage, getting video and reports from friends where Harvey hit and really fuking sad. Looking at the entire state being hit by that and worse? way to soon to joke about, this is going to be something beyond comprehension and relief efforts sorely taxed.  Small thanks the next one appears to be going north.  Thoughts to all in the path it will be a bumpy ride so hang on.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Dex Sawash said:

yes there are

BUT not the eye wall size/thickness or how far the cat 5 winds are outside the eye

or where the killer winds are in simple terms

I donot care or fear the calm eye but that eyewall is the killer so how big is it

they are all about TS force winds and cat 1 winds

I want to know where the to  drop cat 4 to cat 3 winds are

sure it changes and there are gusts but no guesses about the range to wind speeds out from the eye wall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe it's time for "what's the best way to assist relief efforts on the hardest hit islands with $$?"

I know there's the American Red Cross, British Red Cross and International Red Cross, Salvation Army, but do they really have a lot of impact on the smaller islands?

Anybody have good info?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

16 hours ago, Rasputin22 said:

Chopper survey on St Thomas. As bad as it was, it looks like recent building standards and better fastening and roofing systems really made a difference. Surprised to see so many roof top mounted solar panels still in place. They are going to need them for a good while!

https://twitter.com/USCGSoutheast/status/905958410822328320

 

15 hours ago, LoopyGirdleSniffer said:

Ummmm Those rooftop solar panels are producing hot water not electricity.  If the water has been shut off they are just pretty decorations.  

 

Actually, many of those panels are photo voltaic (electricity producing) panels.  A lot of places have both.  Problem is, unless you have a battery bank they do nothing for you.  The vast majority of the PV systems here in the USVI are grid tied and shut off as soon as they sense that the mains are off.  This is to protect line workers from getting shocked.  When we built our house 5 years ago, the person who installed our system, which is a stand alone with battery bank, said he had installed only one or two others that were stand alone.  Many people are surprised when they find out that their grid tied system does not provide back up power.

Now starting to wonder about my in-laws an hour east of Pensacola

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, WYD_StCroix said:

 

 

 

Actually, many of those panels are photo voltaic (electricity producing) panels.  A lot of places have both.  Problem is, unless you have a battery bank they do nothing for you.  The vast majority of the PV systems here in the USVI are grid tied and shut off as soon as they sense that the mains are off.  This is to protect line workers from getting shocked.  When we built our house 5 years ago, the person who installed our system, which is a stand alone with battery bank, said he had installed only one or two others that were stand alone.  Many people are surprised when they find out that their grid tied system does not provide back up power.

Now starting to wonder about my in-laws an hour east of Pensacola

Noted.  What percentage of the homes in the VI's have Photovoltaic panels?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, nota said:

yes there are

BUT not the eye wall size/thickness or how far the cat 5 winds are outside the eye

or where the killer winds are in simple terms

I donot care or fear the calm eye but that eyewall is the killer so how big is it

they are all about TS force winds and cat 1 winds

I want to know where the to  drop cat 4 to cat 3 winds are

sure it changes and there are gusts but no guesses about the range to wind speeds out from the eye wall

I agree, frustrating that you can't get data that says something like CAT5 wind field diameter is 20nm. Wonder if that data isn't offered to keep people from using it to justify bad decisions? The for profit news places want to ramp up the hysterics and would sit on any data that wasn't OMFG and will OMFGify stuff that isn't, but the data should be out there for us. Maybe I didn't know where/how to look. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, RKoch said:

It sounds like they edited it. When I first looked, they were asking for money to raise and repair their boat. They were taking quite a beating over that. 

I wonder if they're wishing they could have gone back and edited their statement of being "READY TO ROCK AND ROLL" before the storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, bplipschitz said:

Maybe it's time for "what's the best way to assist relief efforts on the hardest hit islands with $$?"

I know there's the American Red Cross, British Red Cross and International Red Cross, Salvation Army, but do they really have a lot of impact on the smaller islands?

Anybody have good info?

Here's a way to get your donation matched:

 

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/tim-duncan-hurricane-irma-us-virgin-islands/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given any tragedy, the only predictable aspect seems to be that the small minded will try to exploit it for personal and political gain. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, LoopyGirdleSniffer said:

Noted.  What percentage of the homes in the VI's have Photovoltaic panels?

Not sure, but I can see at least 6 just from my house, not counting our place, and we are in a not very densely populated area.  Our power is very expensive so a lot of incentive to have PV.  They capped the grid tied capacity to I believe 10% (might be 20% now) of the maximum generating capability of the power plant and that limit was hit a couple of years ago. We also have two quite large (for an island of ~ 40000 people) PV farms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, LoopyGirdleSniffer said:

Noted.  What percentage of the homes in the VI's have Photovoltaic panels?

Here is what is left of a solar panel farm on St Thomas. They don't do so well sitting up off the ground on those brackets to get the proper orientation instead of fastened flush against a roof. Dave, it is shocking to hear that most installations don't have standalone batt banks and isolation from the grid. Whoever sold that bill of goods out to get jumper cables clamped to his gonads and at least 12 volts applied. I knew the guy who started PV and Solar installations on St John a couple of decades ago and he was the shadiest guy on a whole island of shady characters, wouldn't put it past him. Glad you have the real deal and it looks like clear dry NE winds here in the Panhandle as what is left of Irma makes her way into the Big Bend east of Appalaichacola so your in-laws should be fine. Have you made it home yet? How did GCY make out? And where did all the big GYC day charter cats go? Salt River should have been fine but after Hugo it has lost its once trusted status. \

Image may contain: mountain, sky, outdoor and nature

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Drone footage of Nanny Cay on Tortola.  Spent almost 2 weeks there last December. Awful to see.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So.. Washington Post had a huge article regarding Tampa and the issues they shall have after a hurricane.... (from Jul 28, 2017), unfortunately it predicts a situation worse (and more expensive) then Katrina was.  Tragic...

It is humbling to remember that we are just human, and not able to control nature.  We can adapt... we can impact... but not control.

Wishing (as that is all I am able to do today) that  the impact be less then expected.... 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, RKoch said:

The REAL Doors...

 

Great video  - fairly certain the swimming at the end takes place in a Hot Springs between Mono & Bishop.

 

 Wonder how they got everyone into bathing suits ?  I was there a handful of times in the early 70s and no one ever wore bathing suits. 

 

Godspeed next 48 hours Godspeed 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just answered one of my questions. Lady Lynsey on the beach in Great Cruz, St John

QV8rJtE.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IRMA's interaction with the North coast of Cuba has undoubtedly come at a great cost to the residents of those coastal communities.  I was unfamiliar with the towns along the North Coast so I spent some time this morning going through Google Earth. I was saddened to see most homes appear to be poorly constructed and depending on the area, some are only a few feet above the high tide mark and built in stilts out in the bays. There are some nice resorts that are probably mostly thrashed now as IRMA makes her way toward Havana. She should be right on the edge now of the SW periphery of the high pressure ridge steering her. A turn to the North is imminent and with that turn will come reduced friction and very warm water. The forecast is for increasing SW shear and if that happens it could help those on the west coast of Florida receive less of an impact. The forecast takes IRMA from her current CAT 3 designation and ramps her back to a CAT 4 before landfall over SW Florida. Based on the latest forecast I expect Cape Coral to be ground zero but it could be Tampa or Naples too.

STATS:

HURRICANE IRMA- CAT 3

MOVEMENT WEST @ 9MPH

WIND: 125 G 155

PRESSURE 941mb

Good luck to all in the path.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, TQA said:

Who knows how fast that center console might have been going when it hit. It could even have been airborne. There were eyewitness accounts of low flying catamarans. How else do you explain this.

 

 

A friend in Marigot called me on his satphone to tell me that nearly all the sunken boats - and he estimates well over a thousand - on SXM were casualties of dozens of smaller boats that had broken free from anchor and mooring lines.  He watched from near the edge of the lagoon (in a concrete tower), and said a boat would break free and within seconds it would be moving at 'planing speeds' until it crashed into something.  Your CSY or whatever yacht ain't stopping that without a big ass hole.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Rasputin22 said:

Here is what is left of a solar panel farm on St Thomas. They don't do so well sitting up off the ground on those brackets to get the proper orientation instead of fastened flush against a roof. Dave, it is shocking to hear that most installations don't have standalone batt banks and isolation from the grid. Whoever sold that bill of goods out to get jumper cables clamped to his gonads and at least 12 volts applied. I knew the guy who started PV and Solar installations on St John a couple of decades ago and he was the shadiest guy on a whole island of shady characters, wouldn't put it past him. Glad you have the real deal and it looks like clear dry NE winds here in the Panhandle as what is left of Irma makes her way into the Big Bend east of Appalaichacola so your in-laws should be fine. Have you made it home yet? How did GCY make out? And where did all the big GYC day charter cats go? Salt River should have been fine but after Hugo it has lost its once trusted status. \

Image may contain: mountain, sky, outdoor and nature

A lot of people opt for the non battery system to save the money for the battery bank as they are already hooked up to WAPA.  In this case they are going grid tied to offset ore eliminate their power bill.  Especially if they already own a generator. Problem with generators in extended outages is you have to feed the damn thing.  In our case we wanted nothing to do with WAPA plus no poles to site.

As far as I know GCY did fine.  Not sure about the big cats both where they went and what happened, have not heard much.  One person said his fleet did fine other than one cat flipped (not a GCY boat). Will likely hear more in the next few days.   Should be home tomorrow.   Where did you find the picture of Lady Lynsey?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 11am looks to be ever so lightly moved back to the east.  Marcos Island looks to be underwater.  But am I right that the storm surge affecting Fort Myers and the St Pete peninsula will be developing after the eye passes?  Until then, pushing water west and south, but only then pushing water south and east, so that unlike the east coast, the west coast will be less affected?

Bad news, it looks to be cat 3 until it closes in on the I10 corridor.  From the 5 am I thought it would be below TS by then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

IRMA's interaction with the North coast of Cuba has undoubtedly come at a great cost to the residents of those coastal communities.  I was unfamiliar with the towns along the North Coast so I spent some time this morning going through Google Earth. I was saddened to see most homes appear to be poorly constructed and depending on the area, some are only a few feet above the high tide mark and built in stilts out in the bays. There are some nice resorts that are probably mostly thrashed now as IRMA makes her way toward Havana. She should be right on the edge now of the SW periphery of the high pressure ridge steering her. A turn to the North is imminent and with that turn will come reduced friction and very warm water. The forecast is for increasing SW shear and if that happens it could help those on the west coast of Florida receive less of an impact. The forecast takes IRMA from her current CAT 3 designation and ramps her back to a CAT 4 before landfall over SW Florida. Based on the latest forecast I expect Cape Coral to be ground zero but it could be Tampa or Naples too.

STATS:

HURRICANE IRMA- CAT 3

MOVEMENT WEST @ 9MPH

WIND: 125 G 155

PRESSURE 941mb

Good luck to all in the path.

 

Thanks Mark

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, elorimer said:

The 11am looks to be ever so lightly moved back to the east.  Marcos Island looks to be underwater.  But am I right that the storm surge affecting Fort Myers and the St Pete peninsula will be developing after the eye passes?  Until then, pushing water west and south, but only then pushing water south and east, so that unlike the east coast, the west coast will be less affected?

Bad news, it looks to be cat 3 until it closes in on the I10 corridor.  From the 5 am I thought it would be below TS by then.

On the west coast, Storm surge will be least with east to north wind.  Worst storm surge will be when winds are between west and south. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The exact landfall is sensitive to initial conditions with the predicted path parallel to the coast.

AL11_2017090900_ECENS_large.png?25391143

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Rule69 said:

The exact landfall is sensitive to initial conditions with the predicted path parallel to the coast.

AL11_2017090900_ECENS_large.png?25391143

The fact that the storm makes a hard right turn must make it very difficult to forecast the track. Even if you get the vector spot on for the northward movement, if you're off a bit on the speed of the westward movement it would make a big difference in this case considering the northward track roughly parallels the coast. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh joy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sean said:

The fact that the storm makes a hard right turn must make it very difficult to forecast the track. Even if you get the vector spot on for the northward movement, if you're off a bit on the speed of the westward movement it would make a big difference in this case considering the northward track roughly parallels the coast. 

Exactly. Just a couple hours or degrees difference in the turn changes the landfall by 100 or more miles. At the moment, it's supposed to make landfall about Ft Myers and go right over Tampa. That's only 15 miles from me, so I'll be in the western eyewall. Not really looking forward to that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

S'posed to go right over us. 130 miles due north of Tampa...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Rasputin22 said:

Here is what is left of a solar panel farm on St Thomas. They don't do so well sitting up off the ground on those brackets to get the proper orientation instead of fastened flush against a roof. Dave, it is shocking to hear that most installations don't have standalone batt banks and isolation from the grid. Whoever sold that bill of goods out to get jumper cables clamped to his gonads and at least 12 volts applied. I knew the guy who started PV and Solar installations on St John a couple of decades ago and he was the shadiest guy on a whole island of shady characters, wouldn't put it past him. Glad you have the real deal and it looks like clear dry NE winds here in the Panhandle as what is left of Irma makes her way into the Big Bend east of Appalaichacola so your in-laws should be fine. Have you made it home yet? How did GCY make out? And where did all the big GYC day charter cats go? Salt River should have been fine but after Hugo it has lost its once trusted status. \

Image may contain: mountain, sky, outdoor and nature

Very cool that they're accepting of natural energy and green sources.  Most of the english speaking Caribbean to the south not so much.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wondering if we're going to need a Jose thread next week. 10 days is a long way out in this business, but I'm not liking where the Euro model puts Jose in the last frame of the current run.

sfcmslp.na.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Godspeed and well wishes to all of y'all in her path, and as well as to those who have already felt her fury.  Stay safe, and keep us posted as you can.

 

Not that boats matter anywhere near what humans do, but there's a Moore 24 on the hard in Marathon that has come a very long way on the water only to be potentially lost on land.  

http://self-portraitinthepresentseajournal.blogspot.com/2017/09/evanston-waiting.html?m=1

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, LoopyGirdleSniffer said:

Very cool that they're accepting of natural energy and green sources.  Most of the english speaking Caribbean to the south not so much.  

Loopy, 

     The solar thing (PV too) has been going on in the VI for a couple of decades. The solar rooftop waterheaters sort of paved the way but like I said before, when I lived down there you would want to let the shower tap run for a bit until the water in the pipes cooled down and that cool water from the cisten started flowing. At least the guests in the house I took care of would. Living aboard made me not waste a drop of water as I'm sure you know. I heard the girl in the unit adjacent to us (we shared the cistern and the water truck bills) taking another of her 15 minute shower (just off the boat from the states and working for the dive shop) answer her phone and carry on a conversation yet left the water running in the shower. I went to the pumproom and turned off the pressure pump and waited. She talked another 20 minutes or so before hanging up and noticing the water was off. She started making a commotion and asked if the water was off on our side too. I said yes and that she must have run the cistern dry (again!) She started wailing that she had just lathered up her hair before getting on the phone and couldn't get the soap out and could I help? I drew a bucket of water from the gravity fed tap at the bottom of the cistern and carried it up to her unit and she stood there in the shower stall butt naked and let me s l o w l y rinse her hair out... 

    It pays to be a good neighbor!

    Here are some PV panels that didn't make out so well in St Thomas. 

DJTdIZjXcAM74Bb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and there's another one kickin up heels off Africa ....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bump-n-Grind said:

and there's another one kickin up heels off Africa ....

bwe.png.8669006a5b1bb325e54b1bd9120cc38e.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You have got to see this. Here is Long Island in the Bahamas - all the fucking water has been sucked out towards Irma!!!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, DryArmour said:

IRMA's interaction with the North coast of Cuba has undoubtedly come at a great cost to the residents of those coastal communities.  I was unfamiliar with the towns along the North Coast so I spent some time this morning going through Google Earth. I was saddened to see most homes appear to be poorly constructed and depending on the area, some are only a few feet above the high tide mark and built in stilts out in the bays. There are some nice resorts that are probably mostly thrashed now as IRMA makes her way toward Havana.

 

I don't remember any houses on stilts along the north coast, although I haven't been everywhere there. Those might be restaurants and such at the resort areas.

Under the original tourism plan in Cuba, the tourists were to be kept out at remote resorts in the cays, far away from the locals. The plan fell apart years ago, but that's where the resorts are. They'll be getting absolutely hammered right now, from Santa Lucia right through to Varadero. Guardalavaca should be okay. The towns on the north side tend to be back from the coast a bit, but Moron through to Matanzas will be near the eyewall. Not sure if the strongest winds got inland enough to affect places like Santa Clara. La Habana might get clobbered, too.

One thing. They built a couple of causeways from the main island out to the resort cays, near Remedios and Moron. They turned out to be ecological disasters, as they cut off the water flow along the bays. They are slowing putting in some bridges along the causeways to alleviate the problem. That work might get sped up a bit by Irma.

Emailed friends in Remedios a few days ago to wish them well. Haven't heard back, which isn't surprising. They'll be in a hurricane bunker somewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

S'posed to go right over us. 130 miles due north of Tampa...

100 miles south of Tampa.  The hatches are battened.  Our lowest floor is about 5 feet in a AE-Special Flood Zone with a Base Flood Elevation of 9 feet, built in 1955.  The crown of the road is 4 1/2.   Too bad Mr. Noble (developer/builder) did not put a few truck loads of dirt under the slab.

Waiting it out and will probably escape after the eye passes and the wind shifts and slams the water in.

A best/worst scenario as I am a little light on flood insurance coverage.  The wind blows the oak in the front yard onto the roof and then we get the flood.  Two causes of loss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now