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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

      Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules.  Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo.  Warning and or timeout for a first offense.  PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members.  See above for penalties.  Caveat:  if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods.  We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post.   We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking.  There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious.  There is no standard, we will know it when we see it.  If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining.  Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious.  Deal with it.  Welcome to anarchy.   If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to.  They will be explained to you soon enough.  
A-NU-START

Irma

1,427 posts in this topic

50 minutes ago, Sean said:

Wondering if we're going to need a Jose thread next week. 10 days is a long way out in this business, but I'm not liking where the Euro model puts Jose in the last frame of the current run.

sfcmslp.na.png

If you follow it out a frame or two it is off Sandy Hook.

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Posted (edited)

12 minutes ago, elorimer said:

If you follow it out a frame or two it is off Sandy Hook.

Yeah, figured it's headed that way. Looks like it's zeroing in on my slip in Sag harbor. I'm not going to stress this early though. Thoughts are with those in Irma's path.

That's the last frame in all the Euro model animations I've seen, where do you find more than 240 hours, or were you extrapolating?

 

Edited by Sean

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7 minutes ago, Sean said:

Yeah, figured it's headed that way. Looks like it's zeroing in on my slip in Sag harbor. I'm not going to stress this early though. Thoughts are with those in Irma's path.

That's the last frame in all the Euro model animations I've seen, where do you find more than 240 hours, or were you extrapolating?

 

It was frame 240 of the GFS model, not the Euro.

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1 hour ago, Mrleft8 said:

S'posed to go right over us. 130 miles due north of Tampa...

 

1 hour ago, RKoch said:

Exactly. Just a couple hours or degrees difference in the turn changes the landfall by 100 or more miles. At the moment, it's supposed to make landfall about Ft Myers and go right over Tampa. That's only 15 miles from me, so I'll be in the western eyewall. Not really looking forward to that.

Good luck guys

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Quote

Wondering if we're going to need a Jose thread next week. 10 days is a long way out in this business, but I'm not liking where the Euro model puts Jose in the last frame of the current run

Jose

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5 minutes ago, elorimer said:

It was frame 240 of the GFS model, not the Euro.

Got it, thanks.

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14 minutes ago, eastern motors said:

Tides for Tampa Bay tomorrow are:
+2.7ft @5:46am
-0.6ft @12:35pm
+2.4ft @7:02pm

 

It should get to Tampa about 2am. That should be about low tide, but the big surge will come as the storm passes, which will add to the incoming tide. A lot of neighborhoods on the northeast side of St Pete are going to be flooded early. That was a mandatory evacuation zone though, so everyone should be ok.

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2 hours ago, RKoch said:

Exactly. Just a couple hours or degrees difference in the turn changes the landfall by 100 or more miles. At the moment, it's supposed to make landfall about Ft Myers and go right over Tampa. That's only 15 miles from me, so I'll be in the western eyewall. Not really looking forward to that.

Hang in there Kochy

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Bitter End, Virgin Gorda, BVI:St. Thomas, USVI:Tortola, BVI:Eustatia, BVI:Saba Rock, BVI:Beef Island, BVI:Cow Wreck, Anegada, BVI:Mafolie, St. Thomas, USVI:

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So sad to see BEYC totalled.  No idea how that can be rebuilt in under a couple of years.

Also, in all the pics I've seen in the islands, there are big bits and pieces of buildings (and boats???) scattered all over the hillsides for miles around.  How do you even start removing that stuff?  Or do you?

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So where are the people that were presumably taking shelter in those blown away buildings?

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22 minutes ago, Beeline said:

So where are the people that were presumably taking shelter in those blown away buildings?

 

      I dont mean to sound facetious but they are probably huddled in the nearest remaining structures ...scared, wet, cold, hungry and thirsty....waiting for the first world to care as much about them as it does about  airlifting our tourists.  To be fair there has been some amazing efforts...especially on Barbuda to get the people off the island ahead of Jose. 

         anyone aware of red cross presence yet ?

EDIT:  Please everyone don't forget to help buy a new boat for the crew of the Mischief...it's the least we can do for everyone to chip in a few hundred each.  Their goal is only $50K...a measly little 50 boat bucks....   https://www.gofundme.com/salvaging-sailing-mischief

   ...just noticed they originally wanted a new boat...then changed it to helping other cruisers....their URL for the GoFundMe still reads "salvaging - sailing - mischief" though

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Some satellite damage mapping for Phillipsburg, Sint Maarten. 

EMSR234_02PHILIPSBURG_02GRADING_MAP_v1_1

Link to the high res version of this map

Via the EU Copernicus program, their Emergency Management Service to be more precise. Very busy this month, and that does not include anything in Europe or anywhere else in the world.
Harvey in Texas, Houston and coastal area Flood extent mapping.
Irma in the Antilles Islands (French side)
Irma in Haiti and Dominican Republic
Irma in Sint Maarten (NL side)
Irma in the British Virgin Islands

No Jose related activation, yet.

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46 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

This video purports to be Key West. Looks like a long night ahead if that is true.

 

 

http://twitter.com/Jofa2010/status/906612149635739648

 

that certainly seems more dramatic than the webcams I found for key west e.g.

http://www.liveduvalstreet.com/cam-2/

http://keywestharborside.com/#webcam?utm_source=Fla-Keys.com&utm_medium=WebcamLink&utm_campaign=StreamingLink

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3 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Video in Twitter link is fake -- archival Sandy footage presented as Irma.  Gotta love Twitter. 

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8 minutes ago, Diarmuid said:

Video in Twitter link is fake -- archival Sandy footage presented as Irma.  Gotta love Twitter. 

Fake ?   Fuck that, but it may soon be true !  

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9 hours ago, nota said:

yes there are

BUT not the eye wall size/thickness or how far the cat 5 winds are outside the eye

or where the killer winds are in simple terms

I donot care or fear the calm eye but that eyewall is the killer so how big is it

they are all about TS force winds and cat 1 winds

I want to know where the to  drop cat 4 to cat 3 winds are

sure it changes and there are gusts but no guesses about the range to wind speeds out from the eye wall

Not exactly what you are looking for, but might give a better idea of how wide the really destructive wall is:

AL112017_wind_probs_64_F120.png

Here

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46 minutes ago, Kingstonsail said:

 

      I dont mean to sound facetious but they are probably huddled in the nearest remaining structures ...scared, wet, cold, hungry and thirsty....waiting for the first world to care as much about them as it does about  airlifting our tourists.  To be fair there has been some amazing efforts...especially on Barbuda to get the people off the island ahead of Jose. 

         anyone aware of red cross presence yet ?

EDIT:  Please everyone don't forget to help buy a new boat for the crew of the Mischief...it's the least we can do for everyone to chip in a few hundred each.  Their goal is only $50K...a measly little 50 boat bucks....   https://www.gofundme.com/salvaging-sailing-mischief

   ...just noticed they originally wanted a new boat...then changed it to helping other cruisers....their URL for the GoFundMe still reads "salvaging - sailing - mischief" though

Maybe I'm jaded but suspect "helping the cruising community" is their latest way of saying we'll get  new boat."

 

just talked with my daughter in Apollo Beach, about a mile from Tampa Bay. Evac zone C and 2014 construction with shutters and well above projected surge. They are staying. I don't expect to get much sleep tomorrow night. 

 

 

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Thanks for exposing that fake guys, I just couldn't picture that as Key West. Shouldn't have even posted, sorry.

    On a brighter note, I am proud to see that one of the first evac boats to get into St John to take injured and elderly to St Thomas and or Puerto Rico is none other than my first big design/build at Gold Coast. If I'm not mistaken, the photo of the boat in the notice looks like it is the 65' ISLAND FLYER which operates out of Fajardo, PR.  Can't find that notice right now, it got buried in the Tweets that are rolling in so fast now that comms are coming back. 

     Still can't find the notice for the evac boat but here is a photo of the ISLAND FLYER in happier times.

Image result for island flyer puerto rico

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Do not forget that the damaging diameter of Irma is about double the breadth of the Florida peninsula.  Where the core/eye goes is crucial to anyone on that path, but the huge width of this giant storm will cause severe problems right across the State.

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Just now, Innocent Bystander said:

Maybe I'm jaded but suspect "helping the cruising community" is their latest way of saying we'll get  new boat."

 

just talked with my daughter in Apollo Beach, about a mile from Tampa Bay. Evac zone C and 2014 construction with shutters and well above projected surge. They are staying. I don't expect to get much sleep tomorrow night. 

 

 

        oh for sure their change of tack was due to public pressure.....comments on their youtube and gofundme pages were brutal...   most of the money they have raised is from family...   bank of Dad only chipped in $150... 

I have friends in Provo TCI and some staying in Miami....so in sympathy I'm "sheltered in place" for a few days...actually I cant get enough data to assess their risks so I sympathize your situation

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10 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

Thanks for exposing that fake guys, I just couldn't picture that as Key West. Shouldn't have even posted, sorry.

    On a brighter note, I am proud to see that one of the first evac boats to get into St John to take injured and elderly to St Thomas and or Puerto Rico is none other than my first big design/build at Gold Coast. If I'm not mistaken, the photo of the boat in the notice looks like it is the 65' ISLAND FLYER which operates out of Fajardo, PR.  Can't find that notice right now, it got buried in the Tweets that are rolling in so fast now that comms are coming back. 

     Still can't find the notice for the evac boat but here is a photo of the ISLAND FLYER in happier times.

Image result for island flyer puerto rico

img_8387.jpg?crc=362715580

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12 minutes ago, Lono said:
39 minutes ago, KC375 said:

img_8387.jpg?crc=362715580

Pretty cool Ras.

Very cool boat, what speed/HP? A proud thing that it's being used for relief.

Also, I love the bows... stole that off an 1890s battleship, dincha? :rolleyes:

FB- Doug

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2 hours ago, P_Wop said:

So sad to see BEYC totalled.  No idea how that can be rebuilt in under a couple of years.

Also, in all the pics I've seen in the islands, there are big bits and pieces of buildings (and boats???) scattered all over the hillsides for miles around.  How do you even start removing that stuff?  Or do you?

I keep seeing that video of the wiped out cottages at BEYC but haven't seen images of the main restaurant, shops and marina which are around the corner from the cottages and not visible in that video. Are there images of the main buildings?

 

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Pretty remarkable Facebook page - https://www.facebook.com/groups/1922822811318744/

 

BVI Abroad - Hurricane Irma

 

Some posts -

 

"Good morning everyone. The relief efforts and the power of this page is of great importance to how we can help our friends and family in the BVI at the moment. Keep it positive and helpful please. 

Evacuation: Can someone please confirm if they have seen any helicopters land in west end, nanny cay or road town?

Relief: We have a 767 being filled up with food in NYC and it is being sent to PR. We have transport from PR airport to Port but need to know what is the best way and who is shipping to BVI on Monday in order for this plane to be sent down. 

Support: Can someone please help identify and set up a location on Tortola with a satellite phone that can be reliable enough for people to go and make calls for urgent health matters. We can also then send some other phones in that direction and specific medicine people might need etc. We need hub on the island as central as possible and preferably not in road town. 

Thank you for all your help! There is a great group of people trying to help and pulling all our resources!"

.........

"BVI family. Anyone that needs a temporary home and has a passport can come to my house in Connecticut. My family will pay for your travel expenses. We have two extra bedrooms and a private bath. Please reach out to me if you need a place to stay. Spread the word."

.........

"URGENT HELP NEEDED AT JOST VAN DYKE: 

I have just received a sat phone call from my husband Peter and Sean (Foxy's Charters) just now Sept 9th at 5:33pm local time. They are the ONLY contact between Tortola and Jost Van Dyke at this time.  Sean and Peter have a radio relay set up, monitored by Richard Stein on top of Belmont Hill on a handheld VHF radio channel 16. 

Jost Van Dyke is currently in crisis mode and there are individuals with guns running around looting and threatening people at gunpoint.  The people on JVD desperately need FOOD, WATER and SECURITY - they have specifically radioed asking for SECURITY with GUNS to get on the ground there ASAP.  BVI DDM PLEASE HELP ASAP!!"

..........

"ANYONE !!!!  PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF YOU HAVE SEEN OR HEARD FROM MAGGIE AND STEVE WINTERS, FROM PALESTINA ESTATE !!!!  THEY ARE MY FAMILY !!!!  PLEASE , IF YOU KNOW THE AREA , ACROSS FROM NANNY CAY , ACROSS FROM THE NORMAN ISLAND FERRY.  ARE THE HOMES STILL STANDING ????  GOD BLESS ALL , JOANN HANSCOM,  (JOJO NANNY )"

............

"I have access to a 165 foot supply vessel in Morgan City, Louisiana. I have spoken with both the U.K. Consulate in Atlanta (BVI) as well as FEMA (USVI), and it appears funding for a support mission can be acquired perhaps as early as Monday. The vessel can carry 225 tons of supplies and can reach the VI in 4 days once loaded. What is needed, is a "shopping" list. There is a lumber yard in Morgan City, and I can acquire roof tarps there as well. But if anyone has spoken to anyone regarding items of necessity, this information would be very helpful. We don't want to take what is not needed or already on the way nor not enough of what is needed. Thanks."

 

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1 hour ago, Rasputin22 said:

On a brighter note, I am proud to see that one of the first evac boats to get into St John to take injured and elderly to St Thomas and or Puerto Rico is none other than my first big design/build at Gold Coast. If I'm not mistaken, the photo of the boat in the notice looks like it is the 65' ISLAND FLYER which operates out of Fajardo, PR.  

Image result for island flyer puerto rico

 

1 hour ago, KC375 said:

img_8387.jpg?crc=362715580

 

47 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Very cool boat, what speed/HP? A proud thing that it's being used for relief.

Also, I love the bows... stole that off an 1890s battleship, dincha? :rolleyes:

FB- Doug

Ras did you come up with the wave piercing bow or these guys??. http://www.incat.com.au

They currently lay claim to that and I think their first one was in the early 1980's

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Well, here's a bit of Florida history that's been ignored by most, propelled by real-estate greed and ignorance.  It's a good article, well worth a read, especially now.  A couple of nuggets:  

"The future president Zachary Taylor, who commanded U.S. troops there for two years, groused that he wouldn’t trade a square foot of Michigan or Ohio for a square mile of Florida. "

"An early visitor declared that if he owned Miami and hell, he would rent out Miami and live in hell."

"Motor-mouthed “binder boys” in knickers known as “acreage trousers” mobbed the streets of Miami, harassing pedestrians to buy and sell lots that often changed hands three times a day. One entrepreneur bought and resold a contract for a $10,000 profit on a stroll down Flagler Street. "

"But the fundamental issue is that South Florida is an artificial civilization, engineered and air-conditioned to insulate its residents and tourists from the realities of its natural landscape. We call animal control when alligators wander into our backyards, and it doesn’t occur to us that we’ve wandered into the alligators’ backyard."

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/08/hurricane-irma-florida-215586

I don't mean to be sarcastic or sardonic, but you've been had. Like buying in a new subdivision in a Texas floodplain.

 

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Stay safe all of you in the path....

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Never mind it is on Fox, but this is a very well done analyses with great graphics. The storm surge chart is frightening, uh, it's all terrifying !

 

 

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52 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

 

Ras did you come up with the wave piercing bow or these guys??. http://www.incat.com.au

They currently lay claim to that and I think their first one was in the early 1980's

That is a good question about the origin of those bows. Here are some details on that particular craft.

http://www.goldcoastyachts.com/Commercial-Power/CP-other/GC65WP-island-flyer.pdf

    GCY had started building those 'wave piercers' at about 38' with outboard power.

http://www.goldcoastyachts.com/Commercial-Power/CP-other/GC39WP-features.pdf

 

     Roger Hatfield had built a half or third scale prototype that was tested by towing through the surf and wave just outside their shop at Salt River. They 38 was great as a water taxi boat or dive boat and eventually an inboard 54'er was built that did the very rough passage from St Martin to St Barts. It had jet pump drives and displayed and easy motion going into the seas on that route. Then it got doubled to 108' and four engine/jets and was intended for the St Thomas to St Croix run. Still pretty comfortable but the beam seas on that route was a different story. One of the bows folded early in its service and most passengers were not even aware except for the reduced speed. Coast Guard and builder had some splainin' to do, but the boat got rebuilt but CG wouldn't re-certify. That boat ended up in Cancun for a long time after two engines were removed. I think that it might have eventually come back and modded and sold again by GCY. The 65'er that I drew up was supposed to be built as a 'joint venture' in Charleston and I was going to be the GCY rep but the day the back loan came through and I was buying my ticket to S. Carolina was 9/11! The owners had a contract with the Navy in Roosevelt Roads to use it as a Liberty Boat to run sailors out to Vieques and the Navy changed its mind when the Twin Towers came down. The boat eventually got built in St Croix and the high profile of those bows was sort of a knee jerk reflex to the failure of the previous much leaner lower bows. Since that boat the bow profiles have come back down to a more sensible height as a result of FEA work and the boats are well regarded by the CG and the operators. Here is the big sister at 83'.

http://www.goldcoastyachts.com/Commercial-Power/CP-other/GC83WP-features.pdf\

     I almost forgot that GCY built a really nice powercat Ambulance Boat a few years ago for St John. Hope it survived.

I finally found the notice of the evac boat from St John 

Image may contain: ocean and water

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Safe anchoring lesson in this one, but otherwise the emptiness is eerie.

More and more videos on youtube now, it's ok to put the good ones here in the thread, is it ?

Anyway, somehow this thread has gone a bit quiet, dunno why.

 

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5 hours ago, elorimer said:

If you follow it out a frame or two it is off Sandy Hook.

This is my wife's current nightmare. I am prepping to go to Florida to support relief efforts and she figures a hurricane will come here as soon as I leave :o

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1 hour ago, P_Wop said:

Well, here's a bit of Florida history that's been ignored by most, propelled by real-estate greed and ignorance.  It's a good article, well worth a read, especially now.  A couple of nuggets:  

"The future president Zachary Taylor, who commanded U.S. troops there for two years, groused that he wouldn’t trade a square foot of Michigan or Ohio for a square mile of Florida. "

"An early visitor declared that if he owned Miami and hell, he would rent out Miami and live in hell."

"Motor-mouthed “binder boys” in knickers known as “acreage trousers” mobbed the streets of Miami, harassing pedestrians to buy and sell lots that often changed hands three times a day. One entrepreneur bought and resold a contract for a $10,000 profit on a stroll down Flagler Street. "

"But the fundamental issue is that South Florida is an artificial civilization, engineered and air-conditioned to insulate its residents and tourists from the realities of its natural landscape. We call animal control when alligators wander into our backyards, and it doesn’t occur to us that we’ve wandered into the alligators’ backyard."

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/08/hurricane-irma-florida-215586

I don't mean to be sarcastic or sardonic, but you've been had. Like buying in a new subdivision in a Texas floodplain.

 

No. Railroads, and then air conditioning, changed everything. Come down and visit The Winter Palace and Rockefeller's winter reserve, to name a couple.

Every home on this planet is an intrusion into some other animal's. backyard.

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Looks like she's still headed west. Next model run should be interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't make landfall till the panhandle.

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I got tired of watching models that targeted my house and fled.

In Gainesville now, which should be safer for at least a day.

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3 minutes ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

I got tired of watching models that targeted my house and fled.

In Gainesville now, which should be safer for at least a day.

Was wondering how you would fare. Glad you evac'ed.

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^^^^ Ras I did some research the little fellow was the prototype Incat launched in 1982 and the big one their first commercial one launched in 1984.

Incat is a family business in Australia and still going with world wide orders for some monster ferries and naval craft using the wave piercing concept.

http://www.incat.com.au/

 

IMG_20170910_125012.jpg

IMG_20170910_125033.jpg

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Looks like a small kick north. 11pm up in a minute.

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RKoch,

Pulling for you and family and friends and all peeps in south Florida. Stay safe and keep it real. 

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Posted (edited)

if you go to Wunderground.com you can select Personal Weather Stations and get live information for an area.

Here's one for Miami

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIAMI207#history/s20170902/e20170910/mweek

Also handy to see when they stopped reporting during Irma

Good for those of you wanting to know conditions close to friends etc.

 

 

Edited by dalenz

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Good luck people. To my friends in the Keys, I hope for the best 

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SATURDAY NIGHT : live streaming web cam Key West on Duval Street, out in front of Sloppy Joe's

Where is the crowd ?

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbAh78NvJZk

"The link could not be embedded because www.youtube.com does not allow embedding of that video".

 

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9 hours ago, Innocent Bystander said:

Maybe I'm jaded but suspect "helping the cruising community" is their latest way of saying we'll get  new boat."

 

just talked with my daughter in Apollo Beach, about a mile from Tampa Bay. Evac zone C and 2014 construction with shutters and well above projected surge. They are staying. I don't expect to get much sleep tomorrow night. 

 

 

Not necessarily. We have liveaboard friends that lost their boat in SXM. Pretty much everything they own they were carrying with them when they left the boat. They're half a world away from their home country with four kids, no home, no "stuff", and not much more than a change of clothes to their name.

A new boat is not their first priority, I think.

For me, for all of us in the Cruising Community, our boat IS our only home. In reality, when you live on a boat, losing your boat is worse than having your house destroyed in a storm. Your house doesn't sink, taking everything in it out of your reach. Unless the house burns down, you can still salvage some basics - clothing, etc. that can be washed or repaired. Yeah, some of these lost boats are tossed up on beaches and broken...those are the lucky ones.

Losing your boat as a cruiser if you are on a very tight budget and maybe not insured is a financial disaster.

 

Hopefully, these people in the video are thinking along the lines of helping folks like my friends, not getting a new boat for themselves. Though it was probably pretty disastrous for themselves too.

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7 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

Losing your boat as a cruiser if you are on a very tight budget and maybe not insured is a financial disaster.

I hope you are kidding.  Moving onto a boat and living the nomadic lifestyle is a choice.  It's a luxury.  How many boxes under the overpass have a seaside view?  There's an inherent and obvious risk to living on a boat...IT CAN SINK!  Most of us don't live in our homes with the same risk. 

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22 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

I hope you are kidding.  Moving onto a boat and living the nomadic lifestyle is a choice.  It's a luxury.  How many boxes under the overpass have a seaside view?  There's an inherent and obvious risk to living on a boat...IT CAN SINK!  Most of us don't live in our homes with the same risk. 

No, I'm not kidding. Your primary residence is your primary residence. People choose to live on the coast, or in Tornado Alley, on hillsides in California, or near forests, too. How is that any different than choosing to live on a boat? When I lived in Rhode Island on the water I spent a lot more time fretting over hurricanes than I have in the last five years of living on board. When it comes to hurricanes, my boat is LESS risky than my old house was...because I take it where the cyclones ain't every year.

My boat is my home and is no more of a luxury item than someone else's home with a similar value. If I lose it...I have lost my home, and it is just as financially devastating for me. I do not have a house to go back to, though I am at least insured for the equity in it this is not a weekend excursion vehicle for me.

Your house can catch on fire or get smashed by a hurricane or tornado, and the outcome is the same. I can get my home out of harm's way, which is something you can't do.

 

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11 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

I can get my home out of harm's way, which is something you can't do.

 

Thank you for assuming I don't live in a mobile home.  

 

You may not be a 1% but likely a 5%.  Not really representing the bulk of society.  

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4 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:
13 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

I can get my home out of harm's way, which is something you can't do.

 

Thank you for assuming I don't live in a mobile home.

You're welcome. Those fuckers are tornado magnets anyway.

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Just now, B.J. Porter said:

You're welcome. Those fuckers are tornado magnets anyway.

Really, because I do live in one.  I was just happy you didn't make that assumption...gotta pack.  

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4 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

You're welcome. Those fuckers are tornado magnets anyway.

As are boats. I cruise the South Pacific...but not in Cyclone season.

 

Whilst I feel for the people who have lost their boats, I struggle to sympathize with those who cruise in hurricane prone zones during the hurricane season. If my boat was my only home, I would be much more cautious than that.

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24 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

No, I'm not kidding. Your primary residence is your primary residence. People choose to live on the coast, or in Tornado Alley, on hillsides in California, or near forests, too. How is that any different than choosing to live on a boat? When I lived in Rhode Island on the water I spent a lot more time fretting over hurricanes than I have in the last five years of living on board. When it comes to hurricanes, my boat is LESS risky than my old house was...because I take it where the cyclones ain't every year.

My boat is my home and is no more of a luxury item than someone else's home with a similar value. If I lose it...I have lost my home, and it is just as financially devastating for me. I do not have a house to go back to, though I am at least insured for the equity in it this is not a weekend excursion vehicle for me.

Your house can catch on fire or get smashed by a hurricane or tornado, and the outcome is the same. I can get my home out of harm's way, which is something you can't do.

 

Are you still fully insured if you are in a hurricane zone during the season? Surely you have a jacked up excess (deductible) even if you are in a  hurricane hole.

 

My policy makes it pretty clear that I have to be south of Bundaberg by December 1st.

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6 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Only maybe 20 degrees between Fort ************ and the panhandle, but it sure will hit SOMETHING :o

I think we're going to have to rename it Fort FatGrifter or something for this storm.

BJ, my county has more mobile homes per capita than any other last I looked. Many of those people will return to an empty concrete pad. Yes, a concrete pad is something instead of nothing, but not much different from losing your boat as a liveaboard.

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Not many people come out ahead dealing with a hurricane.

So had badly did the Leewards do with Jose? And there's another one on the way:(

A friend and I are signed up for the Salty Dawg, but at this point we considering sailing on  by VG and going to the Windwards. It's six weeks out yet, so we'll see.

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4 hours ago, dorydude said:

Are you still fully insured if you are in a hurricane zone during the season? Surely you have a jacked up excess (deductible) even if you are in a  hurricane hole.

 

My policy makes it pretty clear that I have to be south of Bundaberg by December 1st.

No, I get the hell out of Dodge before any cyclones start spinning up...my Named Storm Coverage is basically "Don't get caught in one or yer fucked."

I agree about the risks being in an area, though there is sympathy...and sympathy.

If you are talking about the Vlog nitwits that sailed into the storm in St. Martin...yeah, that was stupid. There was ZERO reason for those folks to bring their boat North.

But there are people, like my friends, that found themselves in a situation where being in SXM in September made more sense than being anywhere else. People that are working to support their cruising need to go where the jobs can be worked legally. But it IS a calculated gamble, and this time the people that stayed lost big time. Just like the people that live there, or bought houses there - which is also a calculated gamble.

The ones that boggle my mind are the super yachts with paid, full-time crews that didn't get out of the way. I'm not sure why those guys didn't turn and burn for the Caimans or something.

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3 hours ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

I think we're going to have to rename it Fort FatGrifter or something for this storm.

BJ, my county has more mobile homes per capita than any other last I looked. Many of those people will return to an empty concrete pad. Yes, a concrete pad is something instead of nothing, but not much different from losing your boat as a liveaboard.

Not, it's not. Especially if the pad is rented. Then you don't even have a pad. Yet no one is going to call their homes a 'luxury' and bemoan their arrogant stupidity for being there...

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Can we PLEASE not turn this into class-envy PA where anyone with more money an unemployed Somalian is a rich wanker who deserves to get their shit wrecked? *

 

* with the two exceptions; the video-idiots who thought the hurricane was good for clicks and sailed toward it and the fully crewed big motor yachts who had no reason at all to just sit there :rolleyes:

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Key West NOAA data station is reporting 70~80 gusts, it's about 15 miles west ("safe"side) of the eye wall.

Keeping good thoughts, it's going to be a long haul

FB- Doug

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53 minutes ago, bplipschitz said:

Key west NOAA station.  While it's still there.

54 knots, gusting to 70+. Looks like they have about 2.5 ft of surge at the moment. Thanks for the link.

edit: wow, just in last 5 minutes the surge went to 3.7 ft. 

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Looks like Key West is almost out of it. 77kts max winds is not as bad as I had feared. Starting to hope Irma may not be a catastrophic as we once thought for FL. Tampa will get walloped, but the damage should be less than if she had given Miami a direct hit.

Question for BJ and Rasper. Seeing all of these cats flipped over, would you consider partially flooding your boat to weigh it down? Even a couple of inches in the bilge could add several 1000lbs of weight, and depending on the boat there may be crash zones and other voids to add a lot of weight. Also since most performance multhulls are optimized to prevent pitchpoling forwards, would you consider mooring so that the stern took most of the wind? I guess that would present the relatively vulnerable stern section of the bridge to the worst of it though.

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Key west might have escaped but my old home Big Pine Key and Marathon are not going to fare as well. Hurricane Georges hit in 1998 and flattened most vegetation and mobile homes and boats. 

One guy I knew had an old shrimper and whenever a big storm came, he would flood the diesel with parrifin wax and sink the shitbox to the bottom of the canal for the duration. 

Actually, he ran drugs in it in the years before I knew him and the neighbors said he would pump it back to the top after dark, melt the wax out, do a drug run and bring the boat back and re-sink it before dawn. Took years for the Dicks to catch on...

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6 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:
6 hours ago, B.J. Porter said:

You're welcome. Those fuckers are tornado magnets anyway.

Really, because I do live in one.  I was just happy you didn't make that assumption...gotta pack.  

I lived in mobile homes / trailer parks for many years/decades. Affordable but like everything, a trade-off.

 

Here's the links I have up at the moment, Key West data, Vaca Key data (about 35 miles east of Key West), and the Key West radar

Key West NOAA data station https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580

Vaca Key https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8723970

Key West Radar https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looks like Irma is moving directly north now, may pass to the east of Naples and go inland from there. My sincere hopes for best outcome for all down there

FB- Doug

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6 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

I lived in mobile homes / trailer parks for many years/decades. Affordable but like everything, a trade-off.

 

Here's the links I have up at the moment, Key West data, Vaca Key data (about 35 miles east of Key West), and the Key West radar

Key West NOAA data station https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580

Vaca Key https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8723970

Key West Radar https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looks like Irma is moving directly north now, may pass to the east of Naples and go inland from there. My sincere hopes for best outcome for all down there

FB- Doug

I'm watching the Naples station now.  Looks like Key West station saw lower barometric pressure than the Vaca key station.

Propagation picking up, beginning to hear some chatter on 14.325 MHz USB.

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4 minutes ago, bplipschitz said:

I'm watching the Naples station now.  Looks like Key West station saw lower barometric pressure than the Vaca key station.

Propagation picking up, beginning to hear some chatter on 14.325 MHz USB.

Not only do we have hurricanes, we had a solar storm too. HF was about as dead as a Norwegian Blue Parrot yesterday.

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13 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

I lived in mobile homes / trailer parks for many years/decades. Affordable but like everything, a trade-off.

 

Here's the links I have up at the moment, Key West data, Vaca Key data (about 35 miles east of Key West), and the Key West radar

Key West NOAA data station https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580

Vaca Key https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8723970

Key West Radar https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looks like Irma is moving directly north now, may pass to the east of Naples and go inland from there. My sincere hopes for best outcome for all down there

FB- Doug

It sure looks to me like the storm is moving north now. That's very good news for the left coast.

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Just now, RKoch said:

It sure looks to me like the storm is moving north now. That's very good news for the left coast.

  Are you seeing a (slight) shift to the east then ?

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    that windy.com product does show a bit of a move from say 355deg to 360....

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8 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Not only do we have hurricanes, we had a solar storm too. HF was about as dead as a Norwegian Blue Parrot yesterday.

Yeah, I got nothing yesterday on either 20 or 40 meters.  I'm picking up net control on 14.325 on a WebSDR out of MI.  Nothing locally yet (MO).  Then again, I don't have a beam, and net control is end-on to my 40m sloping dipole, so I'm at a disadvantage.

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I was looking at the live Key West radar. Sure looks to me like the eye is going nearly due north. That shifts the track east.

It looks like Red Cross dropped the ball in Hillsborough County. 10s of thousands of people in shelters. Red Cross people didn't show up like they were supposed to. Shelters are being manned by school teachers and volunteers. This was posted on FB by a teacher friend working at a shelter. Also, there was an announcement on radio that Hillsborough  County Sheriffs were asking for volunteers to man shelters.

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NWS didn't change the projected track, but reported the storm is headed north at 9.

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20 minutes ago, RKoch said:

I was looking at the live Key West radar. Sure looks to me like the eye is going nearly due north. That shifts the track east.

I noticed that too, but now a bobble to the west. I hope it gets over land and stays there. Wouldn't be good for Marco and Everglades City but much better for everyone else.

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18 minutes ago, RKoch said:

NWS didn't change the projected track, but reported the storm is headed north at 9.

You might want to try a different model.  ECMWF at windy.com shows it skimming the east coast all the way to Tallahassee.
https://www.windy.com/?27.313,-82.969,7

US forecast models have been pretty terrible during Hurricane Irma
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/us-forecast-models-have-been-pretty-terrible-during-hurricane-irma/

Quote

Forecast models typically show their skill with three-, four-, and five-day forecasts. For simplicity's sake, we will focus on 120-hour forecasts. At this lead time, the average error of the European model with respect to Irma has been about 175km in its position forecast. The next best forecast is from the hurricane center, which is slightly more than 300km. An automated model, then, has so far beaten human forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (looking at all of this model data) by a wide margin. That's pretty astounding.

What is particularly embarrassing for NOAA, however, is the comparison between the European model and the various US forecast modeling efforts. The average 120-hour error of the GFS model is about 475km. The operational, hurricane-specific model, HWRF, does better, with an average error of 325km. But the experimental HMON model does terribly, at nearly 550km of error.  A similar disparity in quality goes all the way down to 24-hour forecasts.

Quote

The chart below is extremely busy, but when you understand how to read it, the data is striking. It shows the average position error (in kilometers) at forecast lead times of 12, 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours (so, out to five days). It compares several different classes of models, including global models that forecast conditions around the planet, nested models focused on hurricanes, and consensus forecasts. Specifically, the models are referenced as follows:

AVNO: US Global Forecast System, or GFS. The premiere US global model

CMC: Canadian global model

UKM: UK Met Office global model

ECMWF: European global model

NGX: US Navy global model

HMON: New, experiment US hurricane model

HWRF: Operational US hurricane model

mae.png.f8b4cecdd20f553fb1c07caa13c0d4eb.png

 

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thread drift..   

                    btw... for those that love anagrams as much as I do   (all 3 of us world wide Im guessing) i  thought it fun that the SV Mischief...crewed by the 2 youtube hucksters and gofundme failures...is currently either resting on the bottom or is on land -  in some form - being eaten by rodents....has this anagram

                                         anagram for Mischief...    FISH    MICE  

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For all you sailors in Florida hunkered down hugging the toilet and thinking this is the end...well wise up it ain't ...rise up and remember the good things ..like what your mother told your older sister....then what she told you ...then what did you do.. Stay safe dudes.FB_IMG_1436351506171.jpg.7931bc61f16fd73589814807140d5bb0.jpg

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31 minutes ago, RKoch said:

I was looking at the live Key West radar. Sure looks to me like the eye is going nearly due north. That shifts the track east.

It looks like Red Cross dropped the ball in Hillsborough County. 10s of thousands of people in shelters. Red Cross people didn't show up like they were supposed to. Shelters are being manned by school teachers and volunteers. This was posted on FB by a teacher friend working at a shelter. Also, there was an announcement on radio that Hillsborough  County Sheriffs were asking for volunteers to man shelters.

Sheriffs certainly have no  sense of irony  asking for volunteers ?

 

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11 minutes ago, Kingstonsail said:

thread drift..   

                    btw... for those that love anagrams as much as I do   (all 3 of us world wide Im guessing) i  thought it fun that the SV Mischief...crewed by the 2 youtube hucksters and gofundme failures...is currently either resting on the bottom or is on land -  in some form - being eaten by rodents....has this anagram

                                         anagram for Mischief...    FISH    MICE  

 

yellow-dog-flyfishing-adventures-alaska-russia-rainbow-trout-mouse-flyfishing_3.jpg

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All our Florida anarchists remember: More people die AFTER than DURING. Be careful out there and do not underestimate how different everything will look after dark. This was after Isabel and it was incredibly creepy without the night vision on.

Also be very wary of power lines. Floyd dropped power lines almost on top of me and trapped our car, so helpful neighbors with a hacksaw and an ax started chopping away :o I told them to GTFO before either the power came back on or someone with a suicide-cord genset fried them.

 

isabelns1.jpg

isabelns2.jpg

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9 hours ago, Fiji said:

SATURDAY NIGHT : live streaming web cam Key West on Duval Street, out in front of Sloppy Joe's

Where is the crowd ?

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbAh78NvJZk

"The link could not be embedded because www.youtube.com does not allow embedding of that video".

 

They don't even take the umbrellas down?

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image of Tortola from BBC - I think the north east end of Paraquita bay which has already featured above

9f4b5250-4bf2-457b-a30b-b047aa63dd0f.jpg

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People down by the water reporting the tides are really out. 

 

image.jpg

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Pic. I posted above was from aboard a tug tied up in Ybor channel off Tampa Bay. From FB. I'm also seeing pics on FB of very low water in Charlotte Harbor.  East winds blowing all the water out. That'll change in several hours...they'll have all the water and then some.

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St Pete has issued a 5pm curfew, Tampa 6pm. Both will be until further notice...I would guess lifted about noon Monday.

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