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54 minutes ago, NORBowGirl said:

I saw it on CNN just now. Kind of ridiculous - the reporter can barely stand in the wind, and there's a couple of dudes on their bikes behind her...going for a Darwin Award, maybe.

I saw that too. WTF? What was I eluding too earlier: It's not not the wind that gets you it's being hit by a Volvo can ruin your day. Not how fit you are. Mulletheads.

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The WEATHER CHANNEL reported that in Irma's grasp a J105 got up on a plane

Story quickly retracted and an apology posted in its place

They admitted acepting a Fake News Release from ScuttleButt,

Prommising to follow SailingAnrchy for the Shizzle from now on

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Tampa radar. 

ttps://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

making a beeline for Cape Romano, south of Naples. The dome house ruins will probably be swept away.  This is probably the best case scenerio...getting over land quickly so it will start weakening. Less storm surge of it tracks east of Tampa.

ttps://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

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4 minutes ago, TimFordi550#87 said:

Thanks for the reports, RK

I'll try and keep posting updates, as long as I have power and cell service.

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42 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Brickell Ave in Miami....

image.jpg

BS! That's Miami River mouth and the channel between the Brickell area and Brickell Key! Were it not for the rain oyu'd see a tiny stretch of the Brickell Bridge between the building on the left (Icon Brickell) and the building in the middle.

Yes, storm surge is crazy high but that's not Brickell Ave. I live on Brickell Ave (evacuated now), and I'm monitoring the news. In actual pics of Brickell Ave it looks flooded, but it doesn't look like a river. 

This pics look like a river, because it is a river.

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RKoch,  thanks  for  your  posts,  i  hope  all works out for you and  all  effected.  If  house destroyed,  and  need  a Place to  hang out,  got  couple spare  bed rooms...but in CT,  No charge                   I'd  pray  ,  but  haven't  since  1978   

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20 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Heard a rumor on FB that bridge over snake creek in the Keys is down. 

Just got a report that was a false alarm.

Headed to KW asap to see if my houses are still there...

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16 minutes ago, martin.langhoff said:

BS! That's Miami River mouth and the channel between the Brickell area and Brickell Key! Were it not for the rain oyu'd see a tiny stretch of the Brickell Bridge between the building on the left (Icon Brickell) and the building in the middle.

Yes, storm surge is crazy high but that's not Brickell Ave. I live on Brickell Ave (evacuated now), and I'm monitoring the news. In actual pics of Brickell Ave it looks flooded, but it doesn't look like a river. 

This pics look like a river, because it is a river.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-reg-hurricane-irma-flood-threat-20170909-story.html

reports that a second crane is down, too.

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16 minutes ago, davesect said:

RKoch,  thanks  for  your  posts,  i  hope  all works out for you and  all  effected.  If  house destroyed,  and  need  a Place to  hang out,  got  couple spare  bed rooms...but in CT,  No charge                   I'd  pray  ,  but  haven't  since  1978   

Thanks for the offer. I'm pretty confident house will hold up, esp since storm looks to be tracking east of Tampa. They're not forecasting it yet, but radar is showing it. Plenty of fam and friends nearby. 

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10 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Bayshore Blvd in Tampa...this is normally 6' deep.

 

image.jpg

They had better haul ass before the surge comes back in!!!

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Looks like Key West radar went down. Tampa radar still up, just picking up eye making landfall at Cape Romano. Heavy bands over Ft Myers, just about to hit Sarasota. We'll get them in a little bit.

 

image.jpg

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47 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Bayshore Blvd in Tampa...this is normally 6' deep.

 

image.jpg

Jeezuss - they look like the dummies that got washed away in Phuket in 2004.

Don't people yet understand that a drawdown like that comes back in with a rush?

"Oh, Look - the ocean's disappeared" :rolleyes:

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Can anyone tell us what effect big mangrove areas like the tip of Florida have on storm surge?

Does it sort of absorb it or damp it down like a sponge or is it no different than other places?

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As much as I dislike CNN. Their live coverage from Naples is pretty amazing stuff....

stay safe everyone......

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2 hours ago, eastern motors said:

Guy driving around US41 live streaming:

 

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1LyxBEydlDnJN

 

1 hour ago, AnotherSailor said:

Darwin awards live!

What a fucking idiot!

 

1 hour ago, By the lee said:

Cool! Live blow by blow.......-_-

He may be taking risks, but he is not an idiot at all. Quite switched-on in fact and worth watching and listening to, for a while...

And 478.9k Viewers !

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1 hour ago, RKoch said:

Bayshore Blvd in Tampa...this is normally 6' deep.

 .........cue the leather skinned Floridian with a metal detector 

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6 hours ago, Mizzmo said:

Looks like Key West is almost out of it. 77kts max winds is not as bad as I had feared. Starting to hope Irma may not be a catastrophic as we once thought for FL. Tampa will get walloped, but the damage should be less than if she had given Miami a direct hit.

Question for BJ and Rasper. Seeing all of these cats flipped over, would you consider partially flooding your boat to weigh it down? Even a couple of inches in the bilge could add several 1000lbs of weight, and depending on the boat there may be crash zones and other voids to add a lot of weight. Also since most performance multhulls are optimized to prevent pitchpoling forwards, would you consider mooring so that the stern took most of the wind? I guess that would present the relatively vulnerable stern section of the bridge to the worst of it though.

I've already got 20,000 lbs of lead that says I don't flip over and stay flipped, so the answer for my boat is no since any water above the bilge level would be hell on the interior.

I don't know what the answer is for cats. Bring 'em ashore, take down the rig, and strap them down far from anything that might fly into them? Not really practical on a large scale...

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NOAA tweeted Irma made landfall at Marco Island at 3:30. As a long-time annual Marco Island Marriott visitor due to a particularly excellent conference there in our industry, my thoughts are with them. 

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28 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

Can anyone tell us what effect big mangrove areas like the tip of Florida have on storm surge?

Does it sort of absorb it or damp it down like a sponge or is it no different than other places?

It absorbs it. That's one of the problems that NOLA is having, the marshes and wetlands are sinking.

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2 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

post-67808-0-44525400-1414515034_thumb.jpg

        ...he is wearing socks with his sandals .....are you sure that's not a leather skinned french Canadian

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1 minute ago, Kingstonsail said:

        ...he is wearing socks with his sandals .....are you sure that's not a leather skinned Canadian

Canuks have black socks and jocks.

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Wind in St Pete is about 25-30, but a few gusts near 40. Mostly east, but there's some swirls. Power reported out in Old Northeast, others reporting flickering. Power at my house hasn't missed a beat. I'm only 3 or 4 blocks from a substation, hope it holds.

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35 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

post-67808-0-44525400-1414515034_thumb.jpg

Is that the guy the nurses got suspended over?

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Blowing pretty hard now...maybe 40? Power still on...idk if across the street it is. Scattered outages around St Pete and Tampa. Storm is now Cat2, forecast to be Cat1 by the time it gets to Tampa at 2am.  That's good news. Going to be a long night.

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7 minutes ago, smackdaddy said:

Handy way to carry your golf clubs.

Get real.  He is a Floridian.  90% of Floridians have a CC (Concealed Carry) permit.  Where else could he conceal?

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1 minute ago, RKoch said:

Ice cream truck idea...Cones of Uncertainty. Might be a winner...

 

image.jpg

That's funny! Thanks for the play-by-play too. Really valuable info.

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1 minute ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Finally found some data for Marco storm surge:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8725110

Total swing about -2.5 to +6 when readings stop.  Max rate about 4 feet in 20-30 minutes.  I suppose it could create a "tidal bore" breaking wave in a long shallow harbor like Charlotte?

I've seen videos of the storm surge coming in Mississippi coast during Katrina. Each wave rolls in, but never goes back. Each wave just adds to it.  I think Charlotte Harbor will get similar pouring in Boca Grande Pass. It will be less height than if the storm was just offshore though, but it'll come in quickly.

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A strong band is just starting to hit now. I'm not seeing wind borne debris other than twigs and leaves, but I wouldn't want to be walking or driving the streets right now. Good timing by sheriffs for 5 pm curfew. No where to go anyway...all the bridges have been closed for a while..

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I'm in downtown St Pete, any info on Davis Island???  

NHC flooding map shows it will be inundated.

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22 minutes ago, RKoch said:

A strong band is just starting to hit now. I'm not seeing wind borne debris other than twigs and leaves, but I wouldn't want to be walking or driving the streets right now. Good timing by sheriffs for 5 pm curfew. No where to go anyway...all the bridges have been closed for a while..

 

RKoch, I thought you were evacuating?  Where are you in South Florida?  

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14 minutes ago, billy backstay said:

 

RKoch, I thought you were evacuating?  Where are you in South Florida?  

No, wasn't me. I'm in St Pete. Windy now, worse to come.

Manatee stranded by the outgoing water. I heard it was carried back to deep water.

 

image.jpg

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From a cruiser who lost his Amel 53 in St Martin...

The situation has terribly degraded.
People are stealing anything. I took pictures of 20 to 25 people breaking in Blue Point electronic to steal anything they could. They saw me taking pictures I feared for my life and biked away.
I saw hundred of people robbing the grocery store Carrefour.
Many people have become ruthless and savages.
Bobby’s Boatyard did well, most boats safe.
Port de Plaisance marina is devastated, catamaran flipped over, monohull sink.
The hotel 50kw generator is running low on diesel, I went with an employee to NIKIMAT and dove to open the lazaret, 4 out of my 5 Jerry Cans floated (I assume the diesel is good), couldn’t find the 5th one, probably puncture.
The hotel sewer tanks are almost full and about to overflow in the street.
I bought the last water bottles at the grocery store next to my hotel, I am good for several weeks.
Rarely I get internet connection
Army and police are doing their best, but they are very nervous and not enough of them, people still walk at night to try to rob buildings.
This has become a 3rd World Country.
I am more afraid of the people than the Hurricane.

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https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap170910.html

Take a good look at that and tell me you stayed....

Crazy to think you can. If I could evac before the 8 point whatever the fuck it was, I would...

Shoot the fucking animal looters on sight and stream it live...

Best part is that we wont have to listen/see the idiot newscasts beforehand, and there won't be any after...

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15 minutes ago, ARumRunner said:

From a cruiser who lost his Amel 53 in St Martin...

The situation has terribly degraded.
People are stealing anything. I took pictures of 20 to 25 people breaking in Blue Point electronic to steal anything they could. They saw me taking pictures I feared for my life and biked away.
I saw hundred of people robbing the grocery store Carrefour.
Many people have become ruthless and savages.
Bobby’s Boatyard did well, most boats safe.
Port de Plaisance marina is devastated, catamaran flipped over, monohull sink.
The hotel 50kw generator is running low on diesel, I went with an employee to NIKIMAT and dove to open the lazaret, 4 out of my 5 Jerry Cans floated (I assume the diesel is good), couldn’t find the 5th one, probably puncture.
The hotel sewer tanks are almost full and about to overflow in the street.
I bought the last water bottles at the grocery store next to my hotel, I am good for several weeks.
Rarely I get internet connection
Army and police are doing their best, but they are very nervous and not enough of them, people still walk at night to try to rob buildings.
This has become a 3rd World Country.
I am more afraid of the people than the Hurricane.

Sounds like that is happening in a lot of places in the Carib. Alex's Armel has been his home for nearly 5 years...very sad.

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21 minutes ago, ARumRunner said:

From a cruiser who lost his Amel 53 in St Martin...

The situation has terribly degraded.
People are stealing anything. I took pictures of 20 to 25 people breaking in Blue Point electronic to steal anything they could. They saw me taking pictures I feared for my life and biked away.
I saw hundred of people robbing the grocery store Carrefour.
Many people have become ruthless and savages.
Bobby’s Boatyard did well, most boats safe.
Port de Plaisance marina is devastated, catamaran flipped over, monohull sink.
The hotel 50kw generator is running low on diesel, I went with an employee to NIKIMAT and dove to open the lazaret, 4 out of my 5 Jerry Cans floated (I assume the diesel is good), couldn’t find the 5th one, probably puncture.
The hotel sewer tanks are almost full and about to overflow in the street.
I bought the last water bottles at the grocery store next to my hotel, I am good for several weeks.
Rarely I get internet connection
Army and police are doing their best, but they are very nervous and not enough of them, people still walk at night to try to rob buildings.
This has become a 3rd World Country.
I am more afraid of the people than the Hurricane.

Fucking looters should be shot on sight.

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Feels like 50ish in the gusts. It's raining, but hard to say how much because it's horizontal. Piece of metal flashing is flapping around on my yard equip shed. Old fence on the west is waving around, it will probably fall down. Hoping for a lull so I can move the dyer dink next to it.

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10 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

Fucking looters should be shot on sight.

You are Canadian ?

The Fucking Italian/USA mafia may have infested St. Martin, but it was not USA territory last time I checked.

 

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I just spoke to two of my neighbors.

One still has power! Can't be a real hurricane. His house is only a few hundred yards from mine.

The other was at his restaurant in a place called Cleveland FL. About 2 miles East of I-75 on US 17. He said it's not too bad.

They're expecting the eye very soon. I'm much relieved after talking to them. Still concerned about the surge later tonight but from what they told me the wind was not too bad so far.

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45 gusting 60 knots in Tampa Bay Area now. Power has flickered a few times, and I can hear transformers blowing up in the distance.

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10 minutes ago, Fiji said:

You are Canadian ?

The Fucking Italian/USA mafia may have infested St. Martin, but it was not USA territory last time I checked.

 

Fuck off, Vilu, take it to Sock Anarchy !!

Edited by Sail4beer
Misspelled word

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5 minutes ago, Sail4beer said:

Fuck off, Vilu, take it to Sock Snarchy!!!

Oh, that is very rude to say "Fuck off", still angry at Fiji boy ? He just came home for lunch and says Hi to you !

And god bless you, or something like that...

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Radio says about 40,000 customers without power in Hillsborough Co (Tampa), and about 60,000 without power in Pinellas Co (St Pete/Clearwater).  75% of Miami-Dade without power. 

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Still on grid here in Gilchrist, but not for long I think.

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too soon, but anyone know how the marina in Key Largo fared?  A friend's boat was tied up there............

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42 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

images (81).jpg

Good one, I might join them with my flare pistol !
But that's not in Sint Maarten, nor the Caribbean, but in the USA of course.
Best guess for this image: hurricane katrina looting

 

 

waterlevels.html.jpg

Edited by Fiji
sorry, can't get rid of that waterlevel image.

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Really howling right now. 50s, gusting into 60s? Not sticking my head out to check. Direction must have shifted slightly, b/c the rain is really pelting the LR window.  Still hearing lots of transformers blowing up, power just flickered again. 

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The eye passed just east of my home. Which is better than if it passed by on the west side. But still darn close.

2017-09-10-9p.jpg

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I'm at a friend's house in Gainesville. Going to try to go home tomorrow or Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Snore said:

Cut J bouy in Tampa Bay reported 70mph gust.

Yep. Just heard wind is 54 gusting to 69. It's howling outside.

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1 minute ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

I'm at a friend's house in Gainesville. Going to try to go home tomorrow or Tuesday.

 

Might want to think Tuesday.  Have refuges from Burnt Store staying with me.  They have no power in Burnt Store and some collapsed docks.  May have been caused by boats that were hanging off the docks when water got sucked out.

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3 minutes ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

I'm at a friend's house in Gainesville. Going to try to go home tomorrow or Tuesday.

Cool. Stay safe and keep us updated.

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Just now, Snore said:

Might want to think Tuesday.  Have refuges from Burnt Store staying with me.  They have no power in Burnt Store and some collapsed docks.  May have been caused by boats that were hanging off the docks when water got sucked out.

It wouldn't have occurred to me when tying up for a storm to allow for a huge water drop. 

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It's really quite pleasant here.... Cool breeze, light rain...... The dog and the cat refuse to go out...... I'm trying to convince my wife that she ought to go check on the neighbors.....

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1 minute ago, Snore said:

Might want to think Tuesday.  Have refuges from Burnt Store staying with me.  They have no power in Burnt Store and some collapsed docks.  May have been caused by boats that were hanging off the docks when water got sucked out.

After seeing a video of the sound/harbor dry I was wondering about Burnt Store. If it was dry too there is going to be some damage for sure.

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11 minutes ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

The eye passed just east of my home. Which is better than if it passed by on the west side. But still darn close.

2017-09-10-9p.jpg

Water is gonna start pouring back in now.

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Transformers still blowing up. Little bit of a lull ATM. Direction seems to have some north in it. Gonna try and get some sleep. 

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8 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Transformers still blowing up. Little bit of a lull ATM. Direction seems to have some north in it. Gonna try and get some sleep. 

Rest up for the clean up.  Good luck!

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35 minutes ago, RKoch said:

It wouldn't have occurred to me when tying up for a storm to allow for a huge water drop. 

Saw it happen before on the South Shore of L.I. in the 80's.

I tie up stern - to.  I adjusted the lin s to move the boat forward in the slip and slightly into the fairway.  This way the flood tide and north wind would (hopefully) not drive her into the dock.  Checked boat around noon and there looked like enough slack to let her hit bottom (and go further into fairway).

Patiently waiting for a break in the weather tomorrow to see if I got it right, or if I have a claim.

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10 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Radio reporting a third crane came down...in Ft Lauderdale.

ARG... and I thought you were going to get some sleep...

Hoping for a good outcome for you...   Rest up...

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11 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Radio reporting a third crane came down...in Ft Lauderdale.

I thought you were going to sleep!!

Darn kids, it's bad enough with the weather raising a ruckus all night, go to your room and do homework or something!!

FB- Doug

 

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