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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

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A-NU-START

Irma

1,448 posts in this topic

my thought are 4 or 5 class storms do not tend to remain at peak very long

any track over cuba will limit wind

but if it stays in the warm gulfstream off land power can be enhanced and quickly

hate that white line esp at landfall

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14 hours ago, RKoch said:

There's various metal shutters and coverings that are pretty good. Plywood is good, but it needs to be 1/2" or more to do any good...3/4" is much better. Big problem with plywood is its weight. Taping windows does nothing. Reinforcing garage door is good...if nothing else back up the garaged vehicle to the door to add support.  Yea, picking up yard furniture and potted plants. Good time to trim tree limbs. If in flood prone area, sandbagging doors helps a little. 

Just about all half inch ply shutters in my old neighborhood were torn off by Andrew. They start to flutter then disintegrate around the attachment points.

3/4" stayed put.

I'm off to buy up all the tarps that remain for sale in the county in a few minutes, then going to one of our rentals to put up the (heavy, PITA) 3/4" shutters.

Also writing an email to tenants in rental properties suggesting that getting hit by a hurricane when you have a working car is an extremely stupid mistake that I made ONCE and will NEVER make again. My best friend has agreed to host 4 of us (and 9 animals) up in N FL. Not looking forward to that other than seeing my friend but anything beats sitting there wondering when your house will finish falling apart.

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Only big tarps left at Ace, open at 7:30.  15% of customers yesterday were getting supplies.  TS over at Cruising Anarchy is probably already finished with his prep.

Off to Englewood Beach in  a bit to cover up the mother in laws place and convince the tenants that they really need to take a vacation back to their place in Ohio.  

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Sorry to admit it, but Ace wasn't on my hit list. I was going to raid all the big boxes. But thanks for the tip. Big tarps are the only kind I want. Those will be gone from Ace today.

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9 hours ago, Rule69 said:

As pointed out by Sean, these discussions are worth watching:

 

Levi - 

"This is no joke this hurricane, this is a bad one"

 

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13 minutes ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

The wind field of Andrew was tiny by comparison.

Good luck Tom. 

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Maryland seems safer by the day - at worst it looks like we might get the edge after it is inland* - for now. It could do a lot between now and then though. Looks much worse for everyone in South Florida.

* I keep making myself remember one of the worst storms ever here tracked way inland and hardly had any wind left. Agnes flooded the shit out of Maryland back in 72 I think.

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Just hit Catagory 5.  175 mph.

"NHC has issued a special advisory regarding extremely dangerous Hurricane Irma.  Reports from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate Irma continues to strengthen and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts - an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

Irma is centered as of 8 a.m. AST/EDT about 270 miles (440 km) east of Antigua, moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts,  Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten, Saint Martin, Saint Barthelemy, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Guadeloupe, Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for  Guadeloupe  and Dominica. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. For more information, including Irma's impacts of storm surge, wind and rain, go directly to the NHC website -

The next complete advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 a.m. AST/EDT - www.hurricanes.gov"

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The latest GFS model is complete and utter crap.

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This is a board that went through the side of a building here a few weeks ago in about 120 knots of wind or so. Don't think 1/4" ply is going to stand up to much :o

IMG_3686.JPG

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Just called my charter company down in Tortola to make sure my boat I have reserved for December was in the shed :P

Looks like Road Town / Nanny will be spared the worst since the storm is going north of the islands - I fear what will be left of Anegada.

 

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29 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

This is a board that went through the side of a building here a few weeks ago in about 120 knots of wind or so. Don't think 1/4" ply is going to stand up to much :o

IMG_3686.JPG

Not for nothin' but..... A box of toothpicks thrown at a piece of old aluminum siding might do that much damage....

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2 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

Not for nothin' but..... A box of toothpicks thrown at a piece of old aluminum siding might do that much damage....

It goes through the siding, through the plywood, and into the building. There is, or was, a CAR parked there with wood stuck through it too :o:o

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hifloat8_None_anim.gif

 Antigua and Barbuda in the cross hairs.  150-180 kts at the moment

 hold on down there!!

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43 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

This is a board that went through the side of a building here a few weeks ago in about 120 knots of wind or so. Don't think 1/4" ply is going to stand up to much :o

IMG_3686.JPG

Yes....that is an extreme example..."1/4 with doubling at attachment points is how I am going to roll....I've lived here 35 years and only had to board up once....the turn north is key...I am supposed to leave on a 2 weeks trip to Italy and the Adriatic on Friday....tense

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50 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

Just called my charter company down in Tortola to make sure my boat I have reserved for December was in the shed :P

Looks like Road Town / Nanny will be spared the worst since the storm is going north of the islands - I fear what will be left of Anegada.

 

Well, if Anegada is gonna get slaughtered (appears that way) then Road Town / Nanny Cay are only 25 miles away, certainly have some stuff to worry about too.  The surge alone is enough to cripple all of 'em.    Time to get the J4 on deck and clip in I guess.   Sure looks bad to me.

Lady who owns the anegada reef hotel this morning said she's "going to stay put and hope for the best."    She's a goner, but if anyone finds her GoPro it's gonna have some wild footage on it.

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Lady who owns the anegada reef hotel this morning said she's "going to stay put and hope for the best."    She's a goner, but if anyone finds her GoPro it's gonna have some wild footage on it.

 

Oh that's terrible news :(

 

The reason RT and Nanny might be spared the worst is due to the fact that they're on the (hopefully) leward side of the island.

 

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22 minutes ago, 1sailor said:

Well, if Anegada is gonna get slaughtered (appears that way) then Road Town / Nanny Cay are only 25 miles away, certainly have some stuff to worry about too.  The surge alone is enough to cripple all of 'em.    Time to get the J4 on deck and clip in I guess.   Sure looks bad to me.

Lady who owns the anegada reef hotel this morning said she's "going to stay put and hope for the best."    She's a goner, but if anyone finds her GoPro it's gonna have some wild footage on it.

This beast has a 45 mile hurricane force wind radius. 

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which island(s) are the first do we know yet ?  I'm trying to figure out the best website to show that, maybe try to locate some webcams to watch it in real time..  they talking Anegada is the first direct hit ?

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Antigua and Barbuda will get wacked about the same time, they will be first.

  Nothing manmade is on Barbuda's east coast so no cams.

 I searched Anitgua's east coast for cam's and couldn't find anything.

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This part of the world seems to be like a superhighway for hurricanes. I know Irma is being hyped up but really, how often does that area get whacked by a major hurricane? Is it enough that plant growth, building structure, and other stuff is ready for this kind of storm? Or will Antigua wake up and find that it's been leveled? 

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A year ago we made reservations for Williamsburg.  Leaving Punta Gorda Thursday morning.   Boat is prepped but after riding out Charley I don't expect it to survive.  The debris flying through the air was incredible.  Sheared off masts and made boats look like porcupines. Also so many boats belong to snowbirds who did little or no prep.

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4 minutes ago, A-NU-START said:

This part of the world seems to be like a superhighway for hurricanes. I know Irma is being hyped up but really, how often does that area get whacked by a major hurricane? Is it enough that plant growth, building structure, and other stuff is ready for this kind of storm? Or will Antigua wake up and find that it's been leveled? 

There are hurricanes and there are Cat V hurricanes, Irma's going to hit Antigua punching 150-180 Kts!

 That's a game changer...

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3 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

There are hurricanes and there are Cat V hurricanes, Irma's going to hit Antigua punching 150-180 Kts!

 That's a game changer...

That is essentially a giant tornado :o

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14 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

I have a photo I'll find of 2x4s sticking through the side of the pet shop building from our Kent Island storm a few weeks ago :o

I'm reminded of Ron Whites line about hurricanes - "It's not that the wind is blowin', it's what the wind is blowin'".

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17 minutes ago, A-NU-START said:

 I know Irma is being hyped up but really, how often does that area get whacked by a major hurricane? 

Really?

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1 hour ago, kent_island_sailor said:

It goes through the siding, through the plywood, and into the building. There is, or was, a CAR parked there with wood stuck through it too :o:o

After Andrew I saw pics an engineer had taken when he was invited to tour the area as part of a study group. A piece of shingle had been embedded into a solid wood door, leaving a bulge on the backside from where it was nearly driven through the door. If I had not seen the pictures I would have never believed it. Will be pulling the rig on the J24 and parking it inland at the house where it will at least be sheltered on most all sides by houses. Seemed to be a pretty protected spot based on Charley, Francis, and Jeanne in '03.

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there are some good cams at St John and Jost VanDyke here:   https://greatexpectationsusvi.com/webcam/

have some live-aboard friends at St Johns--- they're gonna ride it out.   12 lines, 8 anchors, whatever.   Plane tickets were available...  they're nuts !

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because clearly a second hurricane doing a victory lap is just what everyone needs.

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Vero Beach south now is under binding restrictions for insurance.

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Holeee Shit...

  Look at this bomb grow!!

  23 05/0300Z 16.7N/55.6W 140 165 W 13 943 Hrricn
23A 05/0600Z 16.6N/56.4W 145 175 W 13 939 Hrricn
24 05/0900Z 16.6N/57.0W 150 180 W 14 937 Hrricn
25 05/1200Z 16.7N/57.7W 175 215 W 14 929 Hrricn
26 05/1500Z 16.8N/58.4W 180 220 W 14 931 Hrricn
 

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I've directed our yard (Ft. Myers area) to go ahead and strap our boat down and remove the solar panels. All the canvas has already been stripped and stowed. So I've done what I can. It's up to Irma now.

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4 minutes ago, smackdaddy said:

I've directed our yard (Ft. Myers area) to go ahead and strap our boat down and remove the solar panels. All the canvas has already been stripped and stowed. So I've done what I can. It's up to Irma now.

Pull the rig?

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I saw a yard that was sure to get a hard hit by a Hurricane in desperation take their backhoe and did trenches in the ground alongside hauled sailboats. Then they picked up the boats and moved them over they narrow relatively shallow trench and lowered until the keels were in the depth of the trenches and reset the jackstands to support the boat. Then they dumped gravel into the pits surrounding the keels and the result was that few boats fell in the storm. It worked so well that for next season the yard had concrete trenches poured and it you hauled for the hurricane season you definitely opted for the trenched spots. Should be standard practice by now everywhere. Also nice in that the climb up and onto the boat is much shorter!

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20 minutes ago, Sean said:

Pull the rig?

Pulling the rig is necessary if the boat is on jack stands. Otherwise there's a high risk of it blowing over. 

Jackstands should be on concrete or plywood, to keep them from sinking into rain-softened ground. Besides fastening jack stands athwartships, they should also be attached fore/aft to each other. Boat should also be tied to screw type hurricane anchors in the ground.

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Alot of carib yards have craploads of heavy concrete blocks and/or eyes in their concrete pads to tie down boats on the hard.

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45 minutes ago, Sean said:

Pull the rig?

Not enough time. They are already booked solid just tying things down at this point. And in any case, there are boats all around ours that won't be tied down, still have canvas, rigs, etc. and can start a domino effect. So as always in a yard, it's a crapshoot regardless.

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Can you get the names of the owners of the boats with sails and canvas still up that are in a position to threaten your boat? If so call the SOB's up and read them the riot act!

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Roller furlers are famous for unwinding....my stomach is churning....

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I was pretty busy during Isabel climbing off my prepared boat and fixing lines and things on the OTHER boats around me that had no prep at all :angry:

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Antigua may be slightly spared.  last few IR loops showing movement to the north, putting the eyewall and devastating north quadrant north of the island.

 Barbuda may see the brunt, but far less inhabited.

 next up StMartin and Barts...

 

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1 hour ago, jdazey said:

T'is the season

Yeah, like Charley, Francis, Jeanne....

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10 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Roller furlers are famous for unwinding....my stomach is churning....

It really doesn't take long to use a spare halyard to wind around a furling headsail from the top down and secure tightly at the tack. Also some furler drums have a hole which allows a pin to be inserted that won't let it turn if the furling line comes loose or breaks. Same with a flaked mainsail on the boom. A simple half hitch in a stout line every foot or so will keep things in place. Doesn't do much for windage but can't hurt. I've taken the liberty of doing both actions on nearby boats when it is clear that the owner or agent is not going to show up before the storm. 

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2 minutes ago, ~HHN92~ said:

Yeah, like Charley, Francis, Jeanne....

Neighbors across the street at the time went nuts nailing up plywood. With the storms threatening every 10-14 days, they just left the plywood up for two months straight. It was dark as a cave inside their house. 

Funny thing...we were on separate electric grids. I was on same grid as the police maintainence depot...never lost power. They were on a different grid...lost power twice, once for 4 days and second time for 10. They were running a damn generator 24/7.

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8 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

Antigua may be slightly spared.  last few IR loops showing movement to the north, putting the eyewall and devastating north quadrant north of the island.

 Barbuda may see the brunt, but far less inhabited.

 next up StMartin and Barts...

 

Luis went 20 miles north of St Martin yet still caused 1.8 billion in damage.

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3 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

It really doesn't take long to use a spare halyard to wind around a furling headsail from the top down and secure tightly at the tack. Also some furler drums have a hole which allows a pin to be inserted that won't let it turn if the furling line comes loose or breaks. Same with a flaked mainsail on the boom. A simple half hitch in a stout line every foot or so will keep things in place. Doesn't do much for windage but can't hurt. I've taken the liberty of doing both actions on nearby boats when it is clear that the owner or agent is not going to show up before the storm. 

Best thing in that circumstance is to double a long line, and tie an overhand eye in the middle. Attach eye to halyard and haul it up. Take the two tails and wind them around the RFG in opposite directions, as tight as possible. 

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Looks like another one starting up in mid-Atlantic.

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Well, tarps are scarce already. None at Ace, a couple at Home Despot. Lowes still had a load of them. I dropped $1,200 on tarps and furring strips, so Irma is already helping heck out of the economy. You should have seen the lines of people buying plywood.

The mood is tense on the streets. People are driving like it's Dade County. I even caught myself instinctively falling back into it.

I'm glad I don't have any big boats at the moment. I'm planning on sinking the whole fleet in my pond, along with all outdoor furniture, trash cans, and other things that might fly. The pontoon boat will be stripped and left hooked to my truck far from any trees. I'll strap it to the trailer and ground and fill the pontoons with water.

 

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13 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

Looks like another one starting up in mid-Atlantic.

Yeah, "Jose" (see post 133 above). 

Long range forecast shows it getting pushed well offshore by the remnants of Irma turning north. 

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Good webcam at Saba rock website. Nothing at all in the water in the North Sound. 

Regarding roller furling sails... at 75knts the additional wrapped halyards and pins, etc. may help, but not much above that. Way too much windage. Less about the unrolling threat and more about lbs per inch of force on the rig. 

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Once a year not even hurricane force we seem to see jibs shredded that someone decided to leave on for a blow. Leaving it on for a hurricane is ASKING for trouble.

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Just now, frostbit said:

Good webcam at Saba rock website. Nothing at all in the water in the North Sound. 

Regarding roller furling sails... at 75knts the additional wrapped halyards and pins, etc. may help, but not much above that. Way too much windage. Less about the unrolling threat and more about lbs per inch of force on the rig. 

Obviously much preferrable to remove the sails.  However, not always possible if the wind has already picked up and you're dealing with someone else's boat who didn't prepare. Cat 5 is going to shred any sails left bent on, regardless.

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FYI - and I found this out the hard way -  past 90knots will lay you over fairly well *under bare poles*. NFW is a tied up furling sail going to do anything but cause a disaster if a hurricane really hits.

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Just now, TPG said:

Once a year not even hurricane force we seem to see jibs shredded that someone decided to leave on for a blow. Leaving it on for a hurricane is ASKING for trouble.

I worked for many years as a sailmaker. RFGs will unroll and shred even in a typical summer squall. I would do my best to educate customers to remove the sails if they weren't going to use their boat for several weeks. At the very least, it would preserve the UV cover and stitching for much longer. Alas, it was like pissing into the wind. Most people are simply too lazy. Far and away, repairs to RFGs were our most common repair.

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Yeah if this thing hits at Cat 4+ it's just going to be down to luck anyway. I've done what I can. Now it's up to the spaghetti.

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8 minutes ago, RKoch said:

I worked for many years as a sailmaker. RFGs will unroll and shred even in a typical summer squall. I would do my best to educate customers to remove the sails if they weren't going to use their boat for several weeks. At the very least, it would preserve the UV cover and stitching for much longer. Alas, it was like pissing into the wind. Most people are simply too lazy. Far and away, repairs to RFGs were our most common repair.

Hurricane David 1979...my beautiful wife Key Biscayne....it was predicted to hit Miami so I got sleep early then wondered why am I not hearing the hurricane...jogged and spared Miami ...landfall up around Palm Beach.......roller furling unattented

IMG_NEW.jpg

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Well, a guy who can't be bothered to crop his photos shouldn't be expected to take down his roller furling sails... 

Just kidding H2O.

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27 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Hurricane David 1979...my beautiful wife Key Biscayne....it was predicted to hit Miami so I got sleep early then wondered why am I not hearing the hurricane...jogged and spared Miami ...landfall up around Palm Beach.......roller furling unattented

 

I was on the Miami River. Hit the sack early figuring I'd be up all night, and slept through it.

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Antiguan's feeling the first wave of squalls.

 Irma continues to intensify.

  25 05/1200Z 16.7N/57.7W 175 215 W 14 929 Hrricn
26 05/1500Z 16.8N/58.4W 180 220 W 14 931 Hrricn
26A 05/1800Z 16.9N/59.1W 185 220 W 14 926 Hrricn
 

 

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So where is Mark?

Not like him to  be MIA on this one?

Is he Ok? Vacation ?

VM

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1 hour ago, RKoch said:

Best thing in that circumstance is to double a long line, and tie an overhand eye in the middle. Attach eye to halyard and haul it up. Take the two tails and wind them around the RFG in opposite directions, as tight as possible. 

thats what I do with 2 messengers around the outside of the jib sock every time we leave the boat - micro bursts do happen

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look at the symmetry of the eye wall, don't think I've ever seen one so perfect!

hifloat8.gif

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Looks like latest GFS runs have her a tick more to the east again.

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Even if that bitch goes right up the middle of Florida, hurricane force winds will extend to the coast on either side. It's going to be a bitch whichever path it takes. 

Theres probably going to be a lot of tornados on the NE quadrant.

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Unfortunately, the Saba rock cam is being controlled by everyone at once. Makes it useless. 

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12 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

I was on the Miami River. Hit the sack early figuring I'd be up all night, and slept through it.

Hurricane Georges caused a big panic and evacuation about 20 years ago. I lived in a garage apt at the time...spent a day prepping the property with landlord. That evening, we sat on the deck with a couple stiff rum drinks. Figured last chance to kick back for several days.  Storm approached...there was a couple wafts of wind...about a half dozen drops of rain...and that was it. We had a good laugh.

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2 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Even if that bitch goes right up the middle of Florida, hurricane force winds will extend to the coast on either side. It's going to be a bitch whichever path it takes. 

Theres probably going to be a lot of tornados on the NE quadrant.

geessh....I am going to have to start boarding up tomorrow...simply can not chance it....hoping it turns early and goes east of the peninsula mid line is not a strategy...water....double contractor bags inside a garbage can...a bit of Clorox...fill and store in a safe spot..

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7 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Even if that bitch goes right up the middle of Florida, hurricane force winds will extend to the coast on either side. It's going to be a bitch whichever path it takes. 

Theres probably going to be a lot of tornados on the NE quadrant.

As someone said up thread, it's one giant tornado. Irma would be an F3

IMG_3265.PNG

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4 hours ago, A-NU-START said:

This part of the world seems to be like a superhighway for hurricanes. I know Irma is being hyped up but really, how often does that area get whacked by a major hurricane? Is it enough that plant growth, building structure, and other stuff is ready for this kind of storm? Or will Antigua wake up and find that it's been leveled? 

Irma is not being hyped up. Irma is the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic in windspeed terms. 180 mph .

Many people in Antigua live in simple wooden houses with tin roofs. Even though it looks like Antigua will not have the eye pass directly over the island but just to the North they are going to get damaging winds. Many/most of these houses will lose their roofs. Some will be blown flat. Even though the rain totals will not be anything like Harvey many roads and bridges will be damaged.

This is a poor island with many people scraping by with no reserves. They are going to have some hard times there. 

Antigua house.jpg

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6 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

geessh....I am going to have to start boarding up tomorrow...simply can not chance it....hoping it turns early and goes east of the peninsula mid line is not a strategy...water....double contractor bags inside a garbage can...a bit of Clorox...fill and store in a safe spot..

Any of the paths up the west coast are going to be really bad. NE St Pete and downtown Tampa  are going to see some bad flooding.  Charlotte Harbor and Punta Gorda going to get a big kick in the balls too. U-Tom making a good call to leave. Hope Tom Scott does too.

 

image.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Sean said:

As someone said up thread, it's one giant tornado. Irma would be an F3

IMG_3265.PNG

Or F4.

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Euro model has been putting it right through the middle of the Keys, leaning more towards Key West, and then turning North and dissipating rapidly once it goes up the Florida peninsula.

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16 minutes ago, Sean said:

As someone said up thread, it's one giant tornado. Irma would be an F3

IMG_3265.PNG

They base it off of damage done by the tornado so it would include max wind. Since Irma has gusts up to 220, it may be more like an F4.

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I wonder if you are in dry storage you could run 3 or 4 lines up the main halyard 

and tie off the mast to something solid, then put out lots of bumpers and let air out of trailer tires.

If your house is in danger, drive into the ground some earth anchors, and get an old dynema surplus fishing net

and drape it over the house and synch it down tight.  If the wind gets under one shingle you can lose the whole roof.

The net would also form a space along the sides of the house to protect it from flying debris.

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Just now, bower bird said:

I wonder if you are in dry storage you could run 3 or 4 lines up the main halyard 

and tie off the mast to something solid, then put out lots of bumpers and let air out of trailer tires.

If your house is in danger, drive into the ground some earth anchors, and get an old dynema surplus fishing net

and drape it over the house and synch it down tight.  If the wind gets under one shingle you can lose the whole roof.

The net would also form a space along the sides of the house to protect it from flying debris.

The roof strategy is excellent and one I have pondered over the years....the rapid pressure differences can pop off whole roofs and pull windows out of frames....hence wind 

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Anybody have thoughts on Puerto Rico?

I have some old friends in the East. I guess they're hoping it tracks North?

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As near as I can tell,  what causes the roof to go is losing windows, and especially the garage door. Gable end roofs are pretty weak, too. Hip roofs much stronger.

Codes were stepped up after Andrew...houses built in the 70s and 80s were really shoddy. They're a little better now.

I think I'm ok, but Cat5 who the fuck knows? My house is 60' of elevation, built in '60. Cinderblock, 2x8 rafters of southern Yellow Pine that's as hard as steel, and roof sheathing of yellow pine 1x12s hand nailed. I might get some leakage, but I don't think it's coming off. Only real vulnerable windows are on the front...plan is to park my old truck on front porch to protect LR picture window. 

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8 minutes ago, RKoch said:

As near as I can tell,  what causes the roof to go is losing windows, and especially the garage door. Gable end roofs are pretty weak, too. Hip roofs much stronger.

if riding it out and unless eye is projected to cross your location...there is a lot to do tending your home while the fury is upon you...including screwing panel from the inside over a breached window...water is sucked through every possible crack be it a  door or a normally tight window...lots of tending inside while the fury rages....shelters will not let you out until all the bureaucrats agree....and this is 2017 not 1960

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6 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

if riding it out and unless eye is projected to cross your location...there is a lot to do tending your home while the fury is upon you...including screwing panel from the inside over a breached window...water is sucked through every possible crack be it a  door or a normally tight window...lots of tending inside while the fury rages....shelters will not let you out until all the bureaucrats agree....and this is 2017 not 1960

I'm in a non-evacuation zone...shelters will be full of people from beaches and other evacuated zones. My area of St Pete could be an island for a short while though. Can't imagine any other house being better off than mine, unless it's 500 miles away. Houses to east and west are only 15' away, I'm good there. Also well protected on the south, where I think strongest wind will be. Might lose screen porch in back. Front faces north, that's the only vulnerable side. Got food and water for a week, and a portable stove. No generator, so if I lose power for more than a couple days that will suck.  I'll just stay busy with mops and towels in case I get a leak.

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High School Buddy, air force academy grade, moved to St Thomas 3 weeks ago with his wife and 2 school aged kids. Damn.

 

HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - St Thomas St John and adjacent islands * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 4 Hurricane force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 115-135 mph with gusts to 145 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Wednesday morning until early Thursday morning - Window for Hurricane force winds: Wednesday morning until Wednesday evening - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme - The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment. - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher. - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts to secure properties should now be brought to completion. - Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible. Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Widespread power outages with some areas experiencing long-term outages - Many bridges and access routes connecting barrier islands impassable - Structural category to sturdy buildings with some having complete wall and roof failures - Complete destruction of mobile homes - Numerous roads impassable from large debris * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 7-11 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: Wednesday morning until Thursday morning - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for extreme storm surge flooding greater than 9 feet above ground. - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of devastating to catastrophic storm surge flooding impacts. Evacuation efforts should now be brought to completion. Evacuations must be complete before driving conditions become unsafe. - Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in serious injury, significant loss of life, or immense human suffering. Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area. Consider voluntary evacuation if recommended. Poor decisions may result in being cut off or needlessly risk lives. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible. - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded.

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Driving from N. Alabama home to the Florida house. A mile from RKoch in St. Pete. Late Father-in-law had heavy metal window coverings built with permanent house fasteners. Will muscle them in place tomorrow. Will be hosting a least four folks from the beaches. Then wait.....

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Some friends are on an ocean worthy 45ft catamaran currently in the mid-fl keys.

They were planning to hightail it north, but Given the uncertainty of this track they are thinking to bug out tonight to Cozumel and let it slide by. That seems like the only direction not on a projected track.

Any better ideas?

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2 minutes ago, Lorax said:

Some friends are on an ocean worthy 45ft catamaran currently in the mid-fl keys.

They were planning to hightail it north, but Given the uncertainty of this track they are thinking to bug out tonight to Cozumel and let it slide by. That seems like the only direction not on a projected track.

Any better ideas?

Well since you said it was 'ocean worthy', that changes everything. They'll be fine! But if they leave I would head to Houston. What are the chances of two in a row ? 

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Just now, Lorax said:

Some friends are on an ocean worthy 45ft catamaran currently in the mid-fl keys.

They were planning to hightail it north, but Given the uncertainty of this track they are thinking to bug out tonight to Cozumel and let it slide by. That seems like the only direction not on a projected track.

Any better ideas?

There is an excellent Hurricane Hole in Isla Mujeres. A shallow draft cat can get far up into the inner lagoon and anchor/tie off to mangroves but they better get there fast before it fills up. 

https://www.google.com/maps/@21.231824,-86.7335016,4626m/data=!3m1!1e3

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