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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

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A-NU-START

Irma

1,448 posts in this topic

6 hours ago, Rasputin22 said:

I saw a yard that was sure to get a hard hit by a Hurricane in desperation take their backhoe and did trenches in the ground alongside hauled sailboats. Then they picked up the boats and moved them over they narrow relatively shallow trench and lowered until the keels were in the depth of the trenches and reset the jackstands to support the boat. Then they dumped gravel into the pits surrounding the keels and the result was that few boats fell in the storm. It worked so well that for next season the yard had concrete trenches poured and it you hauled for the hurricane season you definitely opted for the trenched spots. Should be standard practice by now everywhere. Also nice in that the climb up and onto the boat is much shorter!

That's how the cyclone storage is set up in Vuda Point marina in Fiji. Pits.

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Mother In laws place on Manasota Key boarded up.  The tenants leave tomorrow for GA.  Wife & Mother In Law leaving for AL (Right angles, cousin in NC maybe a better choice) on Thurs. I'm boarding on Thursday and playin' it by ear.

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22 minutes ago, Lorax said:

Some friends are on an ocean worthy 45ft catamaran currently in the mid-fl keys.

They were planning to hightail it north, but Given the uncertainty of this track they are thinking to bug out tonight to Cozumel and let it slide by. That seems like the only direction not on a projected track.

Any better ideas?

If they've got the speed to pull it off, it wouldn't be a bad plan. They should be able to make it in 36 hours or so.  Would really suck if they broke down before getting there, though. 

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8 minutes ago, RKoch said:

If they've got the speed to pull it off, it wouldn't be a bad plan. They should be able to make it in 36 hours or so.  Would really suck if they broke down before getting there, though. 

+1

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Mandatory evacuation for the Keys was issued. It takes 2-3 days to get everyone off. Took me 12 hours to get from Key West to Miami one Memorial Day. Mandatory evacuation for Miami Beach coming soon. Miami itself is going to be badly flooded. Not sure where everyone is going to evacuate TO...

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I've got a gut wrenching feeling there will be far fewer people living on the island of Antigua when we all wake up tomorrow.

  it's an eerie slow darkness that we watch from afar, knowing full well that the wrath of all fury will keep every islander awake tonight, all praying to see sunrise.

  their fate is completely out of their hands.

  so sad... 

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Very small changes in the speed of the storm may result in large differences in the US landfall. The last GFS has the system moving just a little bit slower than EC. It shows landfall as a major along the Carolina coast. EC is showing essentially the official track.

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44 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

I've got a gut wrenching feeling there will be far fewer people living on the island of Antigua when we all wake up tomorrow.

  it's an eerie slow darkness that we watch from afar, knowing full well that the wrath of all fury will keep every islander awake tonight, all praying to see sunrise.

  their fate is completely out of their hands.

  so sad... 

8am landfall for st maarten, as if luis wasn't bad enough.

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1 hour ago, Lorax said:

Some friends are on an ocean worthy 45ft catamaran currently in the mid-fl keys.

They were planning to hightail it north, but Given the uncertainty of this track they are thinking to bug out tonight to Cozumel and let it slide by. That seems like the only direction not on a projected track.

Any better ideas?

If they do head to Mexico remind them they need clearance papers from the US [ ZARPE ]

Quote

Warnings about Zarpe Requirements for American Cruisers heading to Mexico, should be taken seriously.
Published March 2012 - 
see updates and comments from cruisers at the bottom of this report.

A very sad lesson was learnt recently by a US cruising couple who didn’t do enough research before setting off from Key West, FL for Mexico.

 

Before departure from the States, the couple asked around to see if anyone knew for sure if a Zarpe was required on entry into Mexico. Most people they spoke to, including the US Coastguard, told them it wasn’t necessary and anyway – was a real hassle to get hold of. So, as they freely admit, they took the easy route and left for Mexico without a Zarpe.

Over a month later and the same couple are now trapped in a bureaucratic nightmare, their boat having been confiscated and themselves having to live in the cheapest hotel in Cancun with just a small backpack of belongings whilst they fight to get their boat back.

Taken from Noonsite.com

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Any port in a storm! One of the oldest seafaring traditions. 

    I have to admit, I have made entry into Mexico at gunpoint myself for not having proper paperwork before the fact, but there are ways to 'amend' the situation. Oh. and that sawed off shotgun with the serial numbers filed off that was on board was eventually declared a 'flare pistol' after the 12 gauge signal flare cartridges were identified as such. I've got a great story about the eventual status of the shotgun which originated from the NOPD evidence locker shortly before our little Mexican cruise. 

    Isla Mujeres is still really a traditional fisherman village unlike the corruption just across the sound in Cancun. I would think that any vessel fleeing a storm such as Irma would be welcomed to the refuge and it wouldn't take much to convince them of the urgency of the situation. I was boarded at Alacranes Reef by the Mexican Navy without proper papers and searched but a couple of bottles of booze went a long way and we even gave them some fish that we had caught on their 'preserve'. In return, we got a 'hall pass' good for a couple of days on one of the most amazing reefs I've ever seen and they gave us lobster in exchange for the fish! 

Read up on the concept of 'Mordida'.

Back on topic, right above the 'Ice Bar' is my mangrove refuge in Isla.

https://www.google.com/maps/@21.2243239,-86.7360778,382a,35y,63.9h,45.86t/data=!3m1!1e3

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The 8:00 pm advisory is frightening. Shit's gettin' real -

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/052342.shtml

excerpt -

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 60.5 West.  Irma is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast to begin tonight and continue for the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous
core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the
northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass near or just north of
Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to
remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 916 mb (27.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

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8 PM GFS models have her going east of Florida for the consensus path.  Slamming into NC instead..  Still the bulk of the spaghetti is hitting the Florida peninsula.

 

at201711_ensmodel.gif 

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    I stayed on my 46' trimaran in Ensenada Honda on Culebra during Hurricane Hugo. They don't call me Rasputin for nothing! It was rated as a Cat 4 at the time but I have always maintained that it was at Cat 5 when it passed over Culebra. The storm had stalled and taken the fabled 'North turn' while over St Croix which looked like it had been nuked afterwards. There was an old Navy Hospital on Culebra with the standard Navy anemometer which blew off its mounts during the peak of the eyewall passage. It recorded 180 KNOTS just before its destruction. I had friends on a big 90' modern ketch with the latest solid state wind instruments which spun up to 212 mph before the masthead went into the water in a gust and self destructed. I ended up dragging about a half mile after getting ripped out of the mangroves and went ashore at the water plant on the North side of the bay in the last gasps of the storm. I was the only multihull out of 8 or 9 that were anchored out that was not upside down as a result of the winds. There were a few multihulls well up into the inner creeks of the mangroves that fared better but one big heavy Piver which was used as a dive boat with 50 sets of scuba gear and a big compressor got flipped out of its storm tackle to the mangroves and went flying right over a nearby ketch knocking down its main mast but clearing the 30' tall mizzen mast. The ketch owner was sitting in  his companionway and was the shadow fly by in the sky and swore the next morning that an aircraft from the nearby airport had taken out his rig but the direction was all wrong and it wasn't until the aerial survellance came in a couple of days later that the Piver was spotted a couple hundred yards well into the mangroves on the other side of the creek from where it had taken flight. 

    This storm could match or surpass the destruction I witnessed that long agonizing night. Pray for all those affected.

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2 minutes ago, RKoch said:

image.jpg

Good luck RK. Hopefully you won't be home to greet Irma?

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7 minutes ago, RKoch said:

image.jpg

We have a spare bedroom if you need it (and you don't mind forest fire smoke, which BTW, is very dense right now)

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13 minutes ago, RKoch said:

image.jpg

good luck brother, i'm hoping this turd takes a big turn right and leaves the state alone , i think everybody has had enough in the last few weeks.

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20 minutes ago, Sean said:

Good luck RK. Hopefully you won't be home to greet Irma?

I-75 northbound in Florida.

 

thanks for the kind offers, people. I'm on very high ground, house is solid and pretty well sheltered. I'm as good here as anywhere else, and prepared to rough it for a while if necessary. I think most of neighbors are staying too. House next door is vacant, I'll probably secure their trash cans and other outdoor stuff when I do mine.

image.jpg

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We live just north of "Right here", in what is known as "The catcher's mitt".... And we're still in the middle of moving from one house, to another. The generator is hooked up at the new place, but un-tested IRL, and I have grown very leery of the guy who hooked it up's ability considering that he completely fucked up my commercial grade stove/oven....

 I guess this will be trial by fire, so to speak. I always have the back up generator that I loaned to the neighbor 2 years ago...... Him, his wife and their 4 kids can suffer, as long as I have flushing toilets, and a working fridge.

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28 minutes ago, RKoch said:

I-75 northbound in Florida.

 

thanks for the kind offers, people. I'm on very high ground, house is solid and pretty well sheltered. I'm as good here as anywhere else, and prepared to rough it for a while if necessary. I think most of neighbors are staying too. House next door is vacant, I'll probably secure their trash cans and other outdoor stuff when I do mine.

image.jpg

Wow, but seriously, if you change your mind....

 

Edit. Plus the John Butler Trio will begin the neighborhood.

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24 minutes ago, Varan said:

Wow, but seriously, if you change your mind....

Appreciate the kind offer. I'm 60+ feet above sea level, in a ridge a couple of miles from nearest saltwater. Surge can't get me. Lots of oak trees in neighborhood to block wind, but none within falling distance. I'm as good here as anywhere else. Plenty of neighbors nearby...Sailwriter is close and he's sheltering evacuees. I'll probably end up with 1 or 2 here at last minute. 

The big round island in St Pete? I'm smack dab in the middle of it.

 

image.jpg

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10 minutes ago, smackdaddy said:

Whoever hooked us up with this Tidbits dude - thanks for that. He's awesome.

'twasn't I, but, yes, his videos are excellent and his site is a gem. I just wish there was better news to report.

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1 minute ago, Rule69 said:

'twasn't I, but, yes, his videos are excellent and his site is a gem. I just wish there was better news to report.

That's the problem with these things....better news for me is likely worse news for someone else. Irma is seriously nasty no matter where she goes. Better my boat than a struggling family's home. Of course, she's going to take out everything in her path without prejudice.

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Just put in 15 hurricane windows in a 5th floor (top) Cocoa Beach condo. Building does not allow shutters. Can't do much but wait for reports after.

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50 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

Hang tough RKoch...

I'll be hunkered down by sat night. Got a plan, a planB, and an "oh shit" plan.  Pretty much provisioned. House prep in another day or two, hopefully have a better idea of track then. 

Latest euro model shows the storm pulling a Charley...Charlotte Harbor at ground zero. UnTom is already planning to bug out. Haven't heard from Tom Scott. Both of them right on the water...only a few feet of elevation.

No one knows exactly where this things going yet.

www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/ecmwf_caribbean.html

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Good to hear RKoch,

     I'm worried about all my friends and family from over 20 years of living on St John tonight. Hope they get a break but don't see that in the cards the way the last predictions came down. They are already in the sights. Is there a 10 PM report from NOAA? I probably won't sleep tonight worrying. 

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1 hour ago, smackdaddy said:

Whoever hooked us up with this Tidbits dude - thanks for that. He's awesome.

You're welcome. And yes, he's awesome. Came across his site a few hurricanes ago.

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Just now, Sean said:

You're welcome. And yes, he's awesome. Came across his site a few hurricanes ago.

he is the best i have ever seen.

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Rod,  I hope to God you moved from the last time I was at your house....  

If not.   Dude get yr ass up here....  you know how to reach me.  .  GL. 

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6 minutes ago, Zaney said:

Rod,  I hope to God you moved from the last time I was at your house....  

If not.   Dude get yr ass up here....  you know how to reach me.  .  GL. 

Oh man, that was two houses ago. Yea, no way I'd stay there with a Cat5 threatening. My brother used to joke that one big puff would blow all the termites out and the place would leak like a sieve. Great location it was though....and some killer parties with all the Sunfish, Laser, and Europe sailors.

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2 hours ago, Rasputin22 said:

    I stayed on my 46' trimaran in Ensenada Honda on Culebra during Hurricane Hugo. They don't call me Rasputin for nothing! It was rated as a Cat 4 at the time but I have always maintained that it was at Cat 5 when it passed over Culebra. The storm had stalled and taken the fabled 'North turn' while over St Croix which looked like it had been nuked afterwards. There was an old Navy Hospital on Culebra with the standard Navy anemometer which blew off its mounts during the peak of the eyewall passage. It recorded 180 KNOTS just before its destruction. I had friends on a big 90' modern ketch with the latest solid state wind instruments which spun up to 212 mph before the masthead went into the water in a gust and self destructed. I ended up dragging about a half mile after getting ripped out of the mangroves and went ashore at the water plant on the North side of the bay in the last gasps of the storm. I was the only multihull out of 8 or 9 that were anchored out that was not upside down as a result of the winds. There were a few multihulls well up into the inner creeks of the mangroves that fared better but one big heavy Piver which was used as a dive boat with 50 sets of scuba gear and a big compressor got flipped out of its storm tackle to the mangroves and went flying right over a nearby ketch knocking down its main mast but clearing the 30' tall mizzen mast. The ketch owner was sitting in  his companionway and was the shadow fly by in the sky and swore the next morning that an aircraft from the nearby airport had taken out his rig but the direction was all wrong and it wasn't until the aerial survellance came in a couple of days later that the Piver was spotted a couple hundred yards well into the mangroves on the other side of the creek from where it had taken flight. 

    This storm could match or surpass the destruction I witnessed that long agonizing night. Pray for all those affected.

Is there ever a scenario for which you don't have the best story?

I'm still planning on leaving but might stay if those tracks keep it off the east coast.

My house is unlikely to flood. The floor is about 15' above sea level and we're pretty far inland. If my floor gets wet, a huge wall of water came way up the harbor. Rain can't flood my property - it runs off.

Flooding is the worst but I don't want to be inside a house that's being torn apart by wind again. It's unfun. That traffic on I-75 looks way more fun.

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I think Dry Armour went of some sort of vacation. No way he would not be right on all of this. Just like Al Roker spent 10 days in France without NBC telling anyone! 

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Tom, 

    I'm just scratching the surface with my Hurricane mis-adventures. 

    Do you know the difference between a sea story and a fairy tale?

    One begins, 'Once upon a time,' 

    and the other one begins, 'No Shit, there we were! Just lost the mainmast and a Cat 5 barreling down on us. No rum and we were forced to survive 6 days after the storm on only food and water!'

   I house sat in a big place on St John at about 200' ASL on the side of a mountain and never imagined it being prone to flooding, but 18" of rain in about 16 hours proved that wrong. And it wasn't even a hurricane!  Just when you think you have seen it all with weather, then you get something like a Hugo of an Irma. Be safe dude!

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My brother lived in South Venice during Charley. He prepped his house, drove to Venice to prep our parents house on the water (they were away in Maine), then an evacuation was issued and he couldn't get home. He had his dog with him, so he headed east looking for a motel. All full. He ended up all the way on the east coast, still no motel vacancies. So he headed south to Alligater Alley, drove back to Naples, and up I-75 towards home behind the hurricane. He passed some NG and Power guys camped out getting ready to roll, but they hadn't yet. He was only vehicle on the road. It was nothing until he got to Punta Gorda, then there was a 15 mile stretch with power poles down, signs down, trees down, and overturned and abandoned semis. By South venice, all was normal.

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Just talked to wife at home on St. Croix. House is battened down and as ready as can be.  Very strong structure and off grid so she will have power.  I was up in the states doing the Vineyard Race on a tri I designed and was drifting in Long Island Sound when Irma really developed and no way to get back in time.  Starting to feel some wind gusts but no rain bands yet.  Close to 800 feet up so no storm surge clearly.  Track starting to show a turn to 285 at 2300.  Looking bad for Anegada.  The storm surge numbers for the Bahamas are really bad.

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Turks and Caicos are going to be inundated. Looks bad for them.

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On 9/4/2017 at 4:16 AM, Sean said:

Fuck me - 881 mbar forecast at landfall. 

"The barometric pressure measured in Wilma, 882 mbar (26.05 inHg), is currently the lowest recorded pressure for a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin, as well as the second-lowest pressure for any cyclone measured in the Western Hemisphere, only after Hurricane Patricia ten years later in the Eastern Pacific." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Wilma

IMG_4583.PNG

I was in Homestead when this started to hit. Hauled ass up to Ocala.  Went to Ft. Liquordale the next day.  What a mess.  I hope to never go through anything like that again.  I wouldn't even wish that on Bull Gator.  Best wishes for all, be safe.

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We all have sailing friends in Antigua and Barbuda, and St Kitts, and Nevis, and Anguilla, Saba and St Barths, and St Maarten/St Martin, and the BVI and the USVI.  The impact on the small islands will be pretty awful. The survivors will need a lot of help to rebuild.

Thoughts, hopes, and prayers (those of you who do that stuff) are well needed.

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Irma is shaping up as nearly a clone to Donna in 1960 (I was in Sanford Fl. for that one. Remember the wind sounded like a train for what seemed like hours).

Of course the population of the state was only ~ 5 million people then as opposed to ~ 20 million now.

 

f12340.jpg

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28 minutes ago, P_Wop said:

And here's a short YouTube clip of Barbuda not long ago.  What people are still doing driving vehicles at this point defeats me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=798HpjwrFqY

Thats interesting as the winds didn't get to storm force in Barbuda until well after sunset...

Have to wonder about the veracity of that vid.

Here are the winds before the BARA9 buoy quit reporting just a little bit ago...

      5-day plot - Wind Direction 5-day plot - Wind Speed 5-day plot - Wind Gust 5-day plot - Wave Height 5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period 5-day plot - Average Period 5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction 5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure 5-day plot - Pressure Tendency 5-day plot - Air Temperature 5-day plot - Water Temperature 5-day plot - Dew Point 5-day plot - Salinity 5-day plot - Visibility 5-day plot - Tide (above MLLW)
MM DD TIME
(ADT)
WDIR WSPD
kts
GST
kts
WVHT
ft
DPD
sec
APD
sec
MWD PRES
in
PTDY
in
ATMP
°F
WTMP
°F
DEWP
°F
SAL
psu
VIS
nmi
TIDE
ft
09 06 2:54 am - 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - 81.5 84.0 - - - -
09 06 2:48 am - 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - 81.0 83.8 - - - -
09 06 2:42 am - 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - 80.6 83.7 - - - -
09 06 2:36 am - 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - 79.5 83.3 - - - -
09 06 2:30 am - 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - 79.0 82.9 - - - -
09 06 2:24 am - 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - 78.1 82.8 - - - -
09 06 2:18 am - 0.0 0.0 - - - - 27.20 - 77.9 82.4 - - - -
09 06 2:12 am - 0.0 0.0 - - - - 27.24 - 76.6 82.4 - - - -
09 06 2:06 am - 0.0 117.9 - - - - 27.31 - 76.5 82.4 - - - -
09 06 2:00 am N 94.0 135.0 - - - - 27.40 -2.07 75.7 82.6 - - - -
09 06 1:54 am NW 103.0 134.0 - - - - 27.52 - 75.7 82.6 - - - -
09 06 1:48 am NW 93.0 114.0 - - - - 27.73 - 75.7 82.8 - - - -
09 06 1:42 am NW 82.9 110.9 - - - - 28.02 - 75.7 83.1 - - - -
09 06 1:36 am NNW 79.1 102.0 - - - - 28.22 - 75.9 83.3 - - - -
09 06 1:30 am NNW 69.9 90.9 - - - - 28.40 - 76.1 83.5 - - - -
09 06 1:24 am NNW 62.9 86.1 - - - - 28.53 - 76.1 83.7 - - - -
09 06 1:18 am NNW 61.0 82.9 - - - - 28.65 - 76.1 83.8 - - - -
09 06 1:12 am NNW 54.0 75.0 - - - - 28.74 - 76.1 83.8 - - - -
09 06 1:06 am NNW 49.0 73.0 - - - - 28.83 - 76.5 84.0 - - - -
09 06 1:00 am NNW 48.0 65.1 - - - - 28.88 -0.67 77.4 84.0 - - - -
09 06 12:54 am NNW 48.0 71.1 - - - - 28.95 - 77.7 84.0 - - - -
09 06 12:48 am N 44.1 67.0 - - - - 29.01 - 77.2 84.2 - - - -
09 06 12:42 am N 45.1 62.9 - - - - 29.06 - 76.8 84.2 - - - -
09 06 12:36 am N 42.0 65.1 - - - - 29.10 - 77.4 84.2 - - - -
09 06 12:30 am N 35.9 52.1 - - - - 29.15 - 77.9 84.4 - - - -
09 06 12:24 am N 36.9 55.0 - - - - 29.20 - 77.4 84.6 - - - -
09 06 12:18 am N 35.9 53.0 - - - - 29.23 - 78.6 84.7 - - - -
09 06 12:12 am N 35.9 54.0 - - - - 29.24 - 78.8 84.7 - - - -
09 06 12:06 am N 35.9 54.0 - - - - 29.26 - 78.6 84.7 - - - -
09 06 12:00 am N 33.0 52.1 - - - - 29.29 -0.30 78.4 84.7 - - - -
09 05 11:54 pm N 38.1 52.1 - - - - 29.32 - 77.7 84.7 - - - -
09 05 11:48 pm N 28.0 42.9 - - - - 29.34 - 78.6 84.7 - - - -
09 05 11:42 pm N 24.1 45.1 - - - - 29.36 - 78.8 84.9 - - - -
09 05 11:36 pm N 27.0 42.9 - - - - 29.37 - 78.8 84.9 - - - -
09 05 11:30 pm N 32.1 51.1 - - - - 29.39 - 79.2 84.9 - - - -
09 05 11:24 pm N 24.1 39.0 - - - - 29.41 - 79.0 85.1 - - - -
09 05 11:18 pm N 27.0 46.0 - - - - 29.42 - 79.0 85.1 - - - -
09 05 11:12 pm N 27.0 39.0 - - - - 29.44 - 79.0 85.1 - - - -
09 05 11:06 pm N 21.0 38.1 - - - - 29.46 - 79.2 85.1 - - - -
09 05 11:00 pm N 22.0 34.0 - - - - 29.47 -0.16 79.2 85.3 - - - -
09 05 10:54 pm N 25.1 40.0 - - - - 29.48 - 79.2 85.3 - - - -
09 05 10:48 pm N 22.9 38.1 - - - - 29.49 - 79.5 85.3 - - - -
09 05 10:42 pm N 20.0 29.9 - - - - 29.50 - 78.8 85.3 - - - -
09 05 10:36 pm N 22.9 44.1 - - - - 29.51 - 77.4 85.5 - - - -
09 05 10:30 pm N 18.1 27.0 - - - - 29.52 - 79.0 85.5 - - - -
09 05 10:24 pm N 21.0 32.1 - - - - 29.53 - 79.5 85.5 - - - -
09 05 10:18 pm N 22.0 34.0 - - - - 29.53 - 79.9 85.5 - - - -
09 05 10:12 pm N 19.0 32.1 - - - - 29.54 - 80.1 85.5 - - - -
09 05 10:06 pm N 20.0 32.1 - - - - 29.54 - 80.4 85.6 - - - -
09 05 10:00 pm N 18.1 35.9 - - - - 29.55 -0.09 81.0 85.6 - - - -
09 05 9:54 pm N 19.0 31.1 - - - - 29.56 - 81.7 85.6 - - - -
09 05 9:48 pm N 21.0 34.0 - - - - 29.57 - 81.1 85.6 - - - -
09 05 9:42 pm N 15.9 34.0 - - - - 29.57 - 81.1 85.6 - - - -
09 05 9:36 pm N 21.0 35.9 - - - - 29.57 - 81.0 85.6 - - - -
09 05 9:30 pm N 22.0 35.0 - - - - 29.57 - 80.6 85.8 - - - -
09 05 9:24 pm N 19.0 33.0 - - - - 29.59 - 80.8 85.8 - - - -
09 05 9:18 pm N 15.9 32.1 - - - - 29.58 - 81.0 86.0 - - - -
09 05 9:12 pm NNE 15.0 33.0 - - - - 29.59 - 80.4 86.0 - - - -
09 05 9:06 pm N 15.0 22.9 - - - - 29.59 - 80.4 86.0 - - - -
09 05 9:00 pm N 21.0 35.9 - - - - 29.59 -0.07 80.6 86.0 - - - -
09 05 8:54 pm N 19.0 33.0 - - - - 29.59 - 81.1 86.0 - - - -
09 05 8:48 pm N 22.9 40.0 - - - - - - - - - - - -
09 05 8:42 pm N 18.1 24.1 - - - - 29.60 - 81.7 86.2 - - - -
09 05 8:36 pm N 11.1 24.1 - - - - 29.60 - 81.5 86.2 - - - -
09 05 8:30 pm N 17.1 33.0 - - - - 29.61 - 81.7 86.2 - - - -
09 05 8:24 pm N 17.1 27.0 - - - - 29.61 - 81.7 86.2 - - - -
09 05 8:18 pm N 12.0 22.9 - - - - 29.62 - 80.8 86.2 - - - -
09 05 8:12 pm N 12.0 22.9 - - - - 29.62 - 80.2 86.2 - - - -
09 05 8:06 pm N 12.0 24.1 - - - - 29.62 - 80.1 86.2 - - - -
09 05 8:00 pm NNE 18.1 27.0 - - - - 29.63 -0.05 80.6 86.2 - - - -
09 05 7:54 pm N 14.0 26.0 - - - - 29.63 - 82.6 86.4 - - - -
09 05 7:48 pm N 12.0 27.0 - - - - 29.63 - 82.6 86.4 - - - -
09 05 7:42 pm NNE 17.1 25.1 - - - - 29.63 - 82.6 86.4 - - - -
09 05 7:36 pm N 15.9 28.0 - - - - 29.63 - 82.4 86.4 - - - -
09 05 7:30 pm N 15.9 25.1 - - - - 29.64 - 82.2 86.4 - - - -
09 05 7:24 pm N 15.0 22.0 - - - - 29.63 - 82.2 86.4 - - - -
09 05 7:18 pm N 11.1 19.0 - - - - 29.63 - 81.9 86.4 - - - -
09 05 7:12 pm N 15.9 25.1 - - - - 29.64 - 82.0 86.5 - - - -
09 05 7:06 pm N 13.0 20.0 - - - - 29.64 - 81.3 86.5 - - - -
09 05 7:00 pm N 12.0 20.0 - - - - 29.64 -0.05 80.8 86.5 - - - -
09 05 6:54 pm N 13.0 22.0 - - - - 29.64 - 80.2 86.5 - - - -
09 05 6:48 pm N 12.0 19.0 - - - - 29.64 - 79.7 86.5 - - - -
09 05 6:42 pm N 12.0 20.0 - - - - 29.64 - 79.2 86.5 - - - -
09 05 6:36 pm N 12.0 19.0 - - - - 29.65 - 78.8 86.5 - - - -
09 05 6:30 pm N 12.0 19.0 - - - - 29.65 - 78.6 86.5 - - - -
09 05 6:24 pm N 12.0 19.0 - - - - 29.65 - 78.1 86.5 - - - -
09 05 6:18 pm N 12.0 18.1 - - - - 29.65 - 77.5 86.5 - - - -
09 05 6:12 pm N 9.9 15.9 - - - - 29.65 - 77.0 86.7 - - - -
09 05 6:06 pm N 12.0 17.1 - - - - 29.65 - 76.6 86.7 - - - -
09 05 6:00 pm N 11.1 20.0 - - - - 29.66 -0.06 76.3 86.7 - - - -
09 05 5:54 pm N 12.0 20.0 - - - - 29.66 - 76.1 86.7 - - - -
09 05 5:48 pm N 11.1 17.1 - - - - 29.66 - 76.1 86.7 - - - -
09 05 5:42 pm N 9.9 18.1 - - - - 29.66 - 76.3 86.9 - - - -
09 05 5:36 pm N 13.0 19.0 - - - - 29.66 - 76.5 86.9 - - - -
09 05 5:30 pm N 11.1 19.0 - - - - 29.67 - 76.5 86.9 - - -  

 

 

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 Barbuda just came out of the eye of Irma and looks like St. Barth's & St. Martin are next.  I hope everyone is well battened down and indoor on high ground.  I'm afraid that SXM is going to be bad given the number of live-pboards on moorings/anchored in the lagoon there...

Just looking at that video above pretty sure it's not Barbuda - not only with the light and wind speed, but having spent a lot of time walking around Codrington trying to clear customs those buildings are definitely not in Barbuda - looks like they could be in Antigua, but given that it didn't really hit there until well after dark (V.C. Bird was reporting 25-40 knots at 2200 local) suspect that it probably isn't Irma either.

Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 7.49.37 AM.png

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26 minutes ago, sidmon said:

Thats interesting as the winds didn't get to storm force in Barbuda until well after sunset...

Have to wonder about the veracity of that vid

 

You might be right at that.  Don't sound like Antigua/Barbuda accents.  More Spanish.  May be an old clip, so bogus.

In any event, Codrington will be hit hard, and especially the NE coast.  Lucky there's not much up there.  The island will change shape though!

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45 minutes ago, hdra said:

 Barbuda just came out of the eye of Irma and looks like St. Barth's & St. Martin are next.  I hope everyone is well battened down and indoor on high ground.  I'm afraid that SXM is going to be bad given the number of live-pboards on moorings/anchored in the lagoon there...

Just looking at that video above pretty sure it's not Barbuda - not only with the light and wind speed, but having spent a lot of time walking around Codrington trying to clear customs those buildings are definitely not in Barbuda - looks like they could be in Antigua, but given that it didn't really hit there until well after dark (V.C. Bird was reporting 25-40 knots at 2200 local) suspect that it probably isn't Irma either.

Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 7.49.37 AM.png

The lagoon is going to be a mess. Lot of boats will be lost there, I am betting. Too many untended hulks, nowhere for anyone to go.

We have friends there, though they are (reportedly) off the boat and on land. The storm surge will also be a mess.

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According to the telegraph Sir Richard Branson is to ride out Hurricane Irma on Necker Island with his staff.

Quote

"We had some lovely guests staying on Necker Island who have cut their trip short for safety reasons, and another group of guests have also postponed," Branson said in a statement on the Virgin Group website. "I will be on Necker alongside our team, as I have been on the three times we have had hurricanes over the past 30 years."

Looking at the topography, it appears that necker is 16 meters above sea level...  I wonder how it shall react to Irma's wind and storm surge...

One can only wish him and his staff luck.

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Do you know what "Anegada" means in Spanish?

Flooded. I wonder why my fellow Spaniards named her like that...

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4 hours ago, P_Wop said:

And here's a short YouTube clip of Barbuda not long ago.  What people are still doing driving vehicles at this point defeats me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=798HpjwrFqY

If have now seen this clip attributed as Barbados a few years ago, Antigua and now Barbuda. It 1st popped up on my FB feed before this storm made landfall.

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Hmmm. I look at that pic and think about staying here and going Adventure Island sailing. Tropical storms provide enough wind for the boats.

While buying all the remaining big tarps at Lowes, a worker came down the aisle with a pallet of water. He was swarmed. The pallet was quickly disappearing right there in the aisle. I saw the mob buying water and had to grab a case myself. I wasn't shopping for water and didn't feel the need for any until I saw that pallet being stripped. Storm psychology is weird.
 
When I got to checkout, there was a VERY irritated man in line in front of me. "You said no more water! The guy behind me shows up with water!"

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On my phone I cant find member search

Wondèring if "Loopy Girdle Sniffer" is OK

He lives in the land of Mt Gay Rum = Ground Zero @ the moment

???????????????? 

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15 minutes ago, DA-WOODY said:

On my phone I cant find member search

Wondèring if "Loopy Girdle Sniffer" is OK

He lives in the land of Mt Gay Rum = Ground Zero @ the moment

???????????????? 

No.  Barbados is much further south. Closer to Venezuela / Trinidad. 

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5 hours ago, P_Wop said:

And here's a short YouTube clip of Barbuda not long ago.  What people are still doing driving vehicles at this point defeats me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=798HpjwrFqY

The wind was 14 knots when that clip popped up yesterday.

 

Here's St Maarten last night:

 

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We are buttoning up the house today and heading to Georgia this evening. Not taking any chances with this beast. 

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13 minutes ago, Swabbie said:

No.  Barbados is much further south. Closer to Venezuela / Trinidad. 

What Swabbie said.  Been quietly watching this develop and I got no words.  I believe Sat or Sunday a few of us will be leaving via boat for some of the storm affected islands with relief supplies.  

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Memo to water buyers:

Unless your water system has already failed, buy *containers* of some kind and fill them with your hose ;)

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1 minute ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Memo to water buyers:

Unless your water system has already failed, buy *containers* of some kind and fill them with your hose ;)

But that's not as easy to resell! (Some pics of idiots buying 20 cases is getting ridiculous)

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10 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Memo to water buyers:

Unless your water system has already failed, buy *containers* of some kind and fill them with your hose ;)

This is what I have done in the past

3 contractor bags inside one another placed in 32 gal garbage can, google Clorox per gallon add that if you want, fill and tie off tightly with cord.

 Secure can in a safe place....you'll have plenty of long term water

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Another tip

When power goes out

Unplug ALL major appliances including computers.....when the power is restored it often goes back with surges and brown outs which can cause major repair issues ....wait until lights etc are back on steady...wait....

 

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Feel bad for those with no choices, but for  Muricans it's another week of the rest of us paying for damage to assholes building on the beach or in flood plains. 

In the last 30 years Houston has basically built a big concrete swimming pool and built houses inside of it.  Go ahead and be your own country now motherfuckers. We have oil in North Dakota now!

Almost anyone on social security can afford a waterfront condo somewhere in Florida.  Dosnt mean you have to do it  

 

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Texted my buddy who lives in St. Thomas last night.  Basically said, in his own way "if I don't see you again, Goodbye".

Ugh.

 

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Mixed reports from St Martiin. Initial report was light damage, then communications went out at 0030. Later reports of extremely heavy damage. The 4 sturdiest buildings on the island, government buildings, are badly damaged. Lesser buildings assumed destroyed. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-islands-category-5-storm

from link above, this is a hotel on St Martiin:

 

image.jpg

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26 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

Texted my buddy who lives in St. Thomas last night.  Basically said, in his own way "if I don't see you again, Goodbye".

Ugh.

 

Any news out of st Thomas yet?

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10 hours ago, WYD_StCroix said:

Just talked to wife at home on St. Croix. House is battened down and as ready as can be.  Very strong structure and off grid so she will have power.  I was up in the states doing the Vineyard Race on a tri I designed and was drifting in Long Island Sound when Irma really developed and no way to get back in time.  Starting to feel some wind gusts but no rain bands yet.  Close to 800 feet up so no storm surge clearly.  Track starting to show a turn to 285 at 2300.  Looking bad for Anegada.  The storm surge numbers for the Bahamas are really bad.

 Best of luck on your place in St. Croix    Which tri wereyou on? three birds or nice trI?  I sailed on infidel  great racing minus 6hrs of drifting

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4 minutes ago, dacapo said:

 Best of luck on your place in St. Croix    Which tri wereyou on? three birds or nice trI?  I sailed on infidel  great racing minus 6hrs of drifting

Thanks.  Been messaging her, so far so good.  Lost internet, something might have hit the antenna on our porch.  Has heard some rocks hit the house but nothing serious so far.  We are farther south so in a better position than St. Thomas or BVI.

I was on Three Little Birds.  That 6 hours of drifting was painful but it was a great ride in.

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The web is saying Princess Julianna airport is gone. :(

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I have friends in Punta Gorda. I need to find out where the hell they are right now. They just headed south from Maryland a couple days ago :rolleyes:

Another note - When I was flying Andrew relief flights to the Bahamas, we would come home at sunset. Florida at night looked like someone took a sharp knife through it and cut the southern part right off :o

* something to think about, you have to haul enough fuel for a round trip and you aren't even sure there isn't too much shit on the runway to land. Your airlift capacity is about half or maybe less than what you can normally do.

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Got a buddy in Anguila.  He's survived a couple Cat 4s down there.  His house is reinforced concrete on 2x6 framing, including the roof.  He's a little nervous about this one though.  Local authorities have been buttoning up for 4-5 days, some of the utilities went down late yesterday.  Last I heard from my friend was around 6:00 AM, he Fb'ed that it was getting real frickin' interesting.  Haven't heard from him since that time, but am not freaking out - suspect the cell service has been knocked off line, the wall-of-the-eye was hitting Anguila by 8:00. Hoping for the best for him and his wife.    For people that may have pals down that way I'll post up if I hear anything on conditions. 

I'm not a big fan of people who aren't on the spot suffering vicariously through people they've never met but I've got a few pals in the Island and many family/friends in South FL.  Very concerned for them. 

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live view from the soggy dollar.  Having lived in both VIs and Bahamas, this is very concerning as nothing down there is really able to handle what's coming.  Good luck to everyone out there

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That soggy dollar webcam died shortly before 9AM EST this morning.

 

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3 hours ago, LoopyGirdleSniffer said:

What Swabbie said.  Been quietly watching this develop and I got no words.  I believe Sat or Sunday a few of us will be leaving via boat for some of the storm affected islands with relief supplies.  

Nice to see you chime in !!!!

Will you be running Rum to those in need

I wood have sworn it was mapped o er your head

This side of the earth is pretty fucked up on so many levels

Stay Safe LGS !!!

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11AM GFS run has Irma heading north a little earlier than the 5AM run.  Most of the spaghetti paths are well to the east of FL now but there are a handful of outliers that still go to the west.

image.png

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Posted (edited)

Location of Irma courtesy of Google Earth and a projected path at 285 degrees

 

Edited by Morgan Crewed

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Irma courtesy of Google Earth and a projected heading of 285 degrees.

Irma 09.06 1130.JPG

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The charter fleet in BVI is going to be more than decimated.  French cat companies are about to get lots of new orders.

 

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19 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

11AM GFS run has Irma heading north a little earlier than the 5AM run.  Most of the spaghetti paths are well to the east of FL now but there are a handful of outliers that still go to the west.

image.png

Crap, this is LESS consensus than there was earlier! Not helpful.

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I hope the sweet older lady at Cow Wreck who is a truly fantastic cook evacuated.  Her and her family are really good people.

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Richard Branson (riding out with his staff at Necker island) is posting to his blog

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She's t'ing up on the BVI's,

rumor is Sir Branson is bunkering in at Necker Isle to ride it out.

 he'll soon find out how sturdy his hill top palace was built.

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Just now, Raked Aft\\ said:

She's t'ing up on the BVI's,

rumor is Sir Branson is bunkering in at Necker Isle to ride it out.

 he'll soon find out how sturdy his hill top palace was built.

NO rumor.. He is actually blogging about it: https://www.virgin.com/richard-branson

It shall be interesting... Wish them all luck.... Unfortunately they may may need it.

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Here's one explanation for the northward track change:

MIAMI, FL—Saying the plan was the best option for mitigating the potential damage from the storm, the Coast Guard reportedly towed a decoy of Boca Raton into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday in an attempt to lure Hurricane Irma away from land. “After evaluating all available options, we’ve determined that the most effective course of action is to tempt the hurricane away from real coastal areas with a convincing replica of the city of Boca Raton approximately 100 miles offshore,” said Coast Guard Rear Admiral Peter J. Brown, adding that the full-scale reproduction includes poorly constructed buildings for the storm to knock down, fake bridges it can sweep away in floodwaters, and power lines it can topple to plunge the manufactured city into darkness. “The fake Boca also has 96,000 mannequin residents Irma can torment as much as it likes, including several who appear to be antagonizing the storm with profane messages on plywood-covered windows.” At press time, local officials celebrated as Hurricane Irma had changed course, devastated the fake Boca Raton, and proceeded north to the Carolinas. http://www.theonion.com/article/coast-guard-drags-decoy-boca-raton-middle-ocean-at-56846

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9 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

That wine cellar may be all that's left...

Hopefully not filled with water....  From what I managed to find, Necker island has an altitude of 16 meters...  The NHC storm advisory claims storm surge 7-11 feet for BVI.  so.. hopefully no issues with being inundated by waves and water.

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25 minutes ago, 2slow said:

The charter fleet in BVI is going to be more than decimated.  French cat companies are about to get lots of new orders.

 

They've made a hurricane hole for the charter fleet. Massive chains from a battleship from one side to the other to moor boats to. Holds 100+ boats, iirc. Much of the fleet is stored there anyway during hurricane season, as they're not needed. 

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24 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

That wine cellar may be all that's left...

Hope that tape on the windows is reinforced with string.

Irma Necker Is.JPG

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1 minute ago, Morgan Crewed said:

Hope that tape on the windows is reinforced with string.

Irma Necker Is.JPG

missed that 'minor' detail....   Amazed they do not have real hurricane shutters...

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