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Yeah, saw a few  - think it was on Facebook.  Looked like the marina was pretty much obliterated, couldn't see much of the actual buildings.  lots of sunk/flipped boats, one catamaran sitting vertically with bows straight up in the air.

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14 minutes ago, ease hike trim said:

Has anyone seen any pics of the Moorings Road Town base?  attachment.php?attachmentid=155551&d=150

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20 minutes ago, ease hike trim said:

Has anyone seen any pics of the Moorings Road Town base?  

Yes, I saw some screen caps on FB. Wasn't able to copy them. Looked pretty much destroyed. 

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7 minutes ago, Slim said:
22 minutes ago, ease hike trim said:

Has anyone seen any pics of the Moorings Road Town base?  attachment.php?attachmentid=155551&d=150

IIRC, that pic was during a lull. 

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Going to be a hell of a premium on heavy lift services for the next year at least I imagine on any one of those islands. Not to mention construction and so on.

I would hope some of the charter industry could get back up and running but I cannot really see how that could happen when so much of the network that is the industry is broken or gone, from airports, to fuel, to comms, to food distribution to all the staff and their families. Docks, marinas, anchorages all fucked up. I'd be amazed if they could get any semblance of that or any other industry on the islands back up and running within a year.

 

I just hope chaos doesn't break out on those islands that are small and have been decimated by this.

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28 minutes ago, blunted said:

Going to be a hell of a premium on heavy lift services for the next year at least I imagine on any one of those islands. Not to mention construction and so on.

I would hope some of the charter industry could get back up and running but I cannot really see how that could happen when so much of the network that is the industry is broken or gone, from airports, to fuel, to comms, to food distribution to all the staff and their families. Docks, marinas, anchorages all fucked up. I'd be amazed if they could get any semblance of that or any other industry on the islands back up and running within a year.

 

I just hope chaos doesn't break out on those islands that are small and have been decimated by this.

The busy season starts after Thanksgiving, so they have 3 months to get something together. Boats can be transferred from other locations, some of the damaged boats can be repaired, temporary docks, shops, and offices built. I think they can be operating at 50-67% level by the end of the year.

It may take longer to get some of the associated businesses going...food suppliers, sailmakers, riggers, mechanics, bars and resturants. IDK how much insurance they'd be carrying, but probably not a deep pool of capital for rebuilding.

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6 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

I'm pretty sure I know already based on the damage I've seen to Tortola - but does anyone know how Anegada fared?

 

I have not seen any pictures or reports from Anegada, but it was probably completely underwater.

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7 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

I'm pretty sure I know already based on the damage I've seen to Tortola - but does anyone know how Anegada fared?

 

Amazing that it is receiving no coverage - seems like there was 100+ people left on the island..... hard not to imagine the worst.

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3 minutes ago, RKoch said:

The busy season starts after Thanksgiving, so they have 3 months to get something together. Boats can be transferred from other locations, some of the damaged boats can be repaired, temporary docks, shops, and offices built. I think they can be operating at 50-67% level by the end of the year.

It may take longer to get some of the associated businesses going...food suppliers, sailmakers, riggers, mechanics, bars and resturants. IDK how much insurance they'd be carrying, but probably not a deep pool of capital for rebuilding.

I'm trying to figure out if I recommend to our guests that we cancel our trip in December.  I guess I'll just wait and see what the charter company tells me.  Sure it'd be nice to be able to get away to the tropics for a week - but if there's nothing left to visit, that would kinda suck in a way.

 

Wonder how Willy T's fared.

 

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4 minutes ago, tinga said:

Amazing that it is receiving no coverage - seems like there was 100+ people left on the island..... hard not to imagine the worst.

Dear God. That would be terrible :(

 

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10 minutes ago, RKoch said:

I have not seen any pictures or reports from Anegada, but it was probably completely underwater.

"Anegada" means "flooded" in spanish ... the name says it all.

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14 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

I'm trying to figure out if I recommend to our guests that we cancel our trip in December.  I guess I'll just wait and see what the charter company tells me.  Sure it'd be nice to be able to get away to the tropics for a week - but if there's nothing left to visit, that would kinda suck in a way.

 

Wonder how Willy T's fared.

 

I'd wait a while, giving them a chance to dig out and evaluate, and then contact them. The bigger charter companies have multiple locations...you might find them willing to schedule you in another location, like the Abacos or South Pacific. 

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17 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

I'm trying to figure out if I recommend to our guests that we cancel our trip in December.  I guess I'll just wait and see what the charter company tells me.  Sure it'd be nice to be able to get away to the tropics for a week - but if there's nothing left to visit, that would kinda suck in a way.

 

Wonder how Willy T's fared.

 

If you cancel likely your money is lost.  Likely most of the prepayments of most of the charters is lost at this point.  If you are with one of the few major corporate operators the best bet is to try to get transferred to another base before all those options are gone. Example Grenada has no damage.

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1 minute ago, RKoch said:

I'd wait a while, giving them a chance to dig out and evaluate, and then contact them. The bigger charter companies have multiple locations...you might find them willing to schedule you in another location, like the Abacos or South Pacific. 

We only got a week to work with.  Going outside the hemisphere isn't really an option due to travel times.  I keep telling myself to wait and see what they say.

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24 minutes ago, tinga said:

Amazing that it is receiving no coverage - seems like there was 100+ people left on the island..... hard not to imagine the worst.

There is a massive reef known to protect the place.  In some cases Anegada is the safest place to be.  No mudslides and plenty of protection from the surge and surf even without the elevation. Again, the reef is massive.

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1 minute ago, Canal Bottom said:

If you cancel likely your money is lost.  Likely most of the prepayments of most of the charters is lost at this point.  If you are with one of the few major corporate operators the best bet is to try to get transferred to another base before all those options are gone. Example Grenada has no damage.

Fortunately the deposit was scheduled to be delivered yesterday so it's either lost or not a priority right now - not too worried about that part honestly.

 

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1 minute ago, MauganTornado said:

We only got a week to work with.  Going outside the hemisphere isn't really an option due to travel times.  I keep telling myself to wait and see what they say.

The number of people who lose prepayments and deposits to this will be enormous and a shocker to many. Even more so to the groups of "friends" who pool money for these adventures.  What is underneath these businesses is not near as strong as the brochures and websites make some think.  The private equity KKR behind The Moorings/Sunsail would be the exception.  Will they walk on the BVI or pool the global resources to cover the loss.  

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1 hour ago, European Bloke said:

Is that a bunch of inflatable tenders on the bottom left?  Who'd have expected them to still be there?

Yes, that is the dinghy inventory and dinghy repair shed for the Moorings.  Likely taken before the wind switched to the South exposing them to the real storm.  Most of the pictures we are seeing are from the period when the winds were from the North and the harbors "protected".  When the wind switched to the south as the eye went by comms were lost.   

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56 minutes ago, dyslexic dog said:

Any link to the FB page? I know someone in Oil Nut Bay and the family if looking for information.

Oil Nut ended up in a bunker for that purpose.

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1 hour ago, RKoch said:

IIRC, that pic was during a lull. 

And before the wind and waves shifted in the direction of that open water Sir Francis Drake Channel.  At the time of the picture the harbor was in the lee of the mountain on Tortola. 

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Have a booking from Tortola as well, for NYE +2 weeks. The charter company vaguely claims that "the boats seems to be OK", and will come back to us after Jose has passed. I suspect the person on the other end wasn't on BVI.

However, if true, I suspect it's going to be lonely for us cruising around there with all the damage to the fleets.

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15 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

We only got a week to work with.  Going outside the hemisphere isn't really an option due to travel times.  I keep telling myself to wait and see what they say.

I'd see about relocating to Grenada or Abacos if they can't handle you in Tortola.

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Just now, money drain said:

Have a booking from Tortola as well, for NYE +2 weeks. The charter company vaguely claims that "the boats seems to be OK", and will come back to us after Jose has passed. I suspect the person on the other end wasn't on BVI.

However, if true, I suspect it's going to be lonely for us cruising around there with all the damage to the fleets.

I'd consider that a plus.

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1 minute ago, money drain said:

Have a booking from Tortola as well, for NYE +2 weeks. The charter company vaguely claims that "the boats seems to be OK", and will come back to us after Jose has passed. I suspect the person on the other end wasn't on BVI.

However, if true, I suspect it's going to be lonely for us cruising around there with all the damage to the fleets.

There will still be plenty of charter and private boats. And the beach shacks like Foxy's will be up and running pretty quickly.

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Just now, Blue Crab said:

I'd consider that a plus.

It's going to be lonely, and a place without destinations.  Who knows what the conditions of the mooring fields are - and even then, what those mooring fields service.  Bitter End? Soggy? The Settlement?  Who knows whether those places we use as anchorages even still exist... 

If your idea of a good charter vacation is to get the vessel, provision it for you and your guests, and then go touring destroyed anchorages and a now desolate landscape then it will be a nice time.

 

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2 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

I'd consider that a plus.

Same here. Last time I was there was before the offseason had ended, and the anchorages were still packed. 

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I was in the BVIs in November 2003 and saw nothing but heavy rain for a week. There was an hour or so of sunshine when I was underwater diving the Rhone.:( I think the total rainfall was 17 inches. Lots of landslides and flooding and that wasn't even a hurricane. Airport was closed and I couldn't get out for days. It took months to recover. This will be far worst. December seems too close if you are looking for what the BVIs normally promise.

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9 minutes ago, money drain said:

Have a booking from Tortola as well, for NYE +2 weeks. The charter company vaguely claims that "the boats seems to be OK", and will come back to us after Jose has passed. I suspect the person on the other end wasn't on BVI.

However, if true, I suspect it's going to be lonely for us cruising around there with all the damage to the fleets.

Most do not have the cash to refund the deposits and prepayments. The cash crisis will be a major mess. At the end of the day the ladies on the phones and the guys on the docks are brokers and agents for independently owned and contracted boats. Moistly shell corporations with little or no assets.  The Moorings/KKR does own their base and hotel. Likely all in different legal entities. 

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8 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

It's going to be lonely, and a place without destinations.  Who knows what the conditions of the mooring fields are - and even then, what those mooring fields service.  Bitter End? Soggy? The Settlement?  Who knows whether those places we use as anchorages even still exist... 

If your idea of a good charter vacation is to get the vessel, provision it for you and your guests, and then go touring destroyed anchorages and a now desolate landscape then it will be a nice time.

 

As someone mentioned, some places will be up and running again in no time. What those places and the people who live there will need the most is people coming and spending money. I think it will be fine in regards to us having a good time.

 

Just now, Canal Bottom said:

Most do not have the cash to refund the deposits and prepayments. The cash crisis will be a major mess. At the end of the day the ladies on the phones and the guys on the docks are brokers and agents for independently owned and contracted boats. Moistly shell corporations with little or no assets.  The Moorings/KKR does own their base and hotel. Likely all in different legal entities. 

The parent company of Sunsail/Moorings (TUI) doesn't really have a history of having their shit together in all their entities when things go awry. Don't know about their boat charter business though, only chartered from them once without hiccups.

I'm not at all worried about my deposit. That's what travel insurance is for, they have covered similar things for me before.

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What happened to the lady's shed, the woman who was "overlooking Magens Bay"...did that shed survive?   I saw the doors leave the structure and the thing distorting pretty wickedly. Then I had to step away from the computer.

 If that shed survived, I want one.  That was one helluva a shed.  

Just curious. 

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7 minutes ago, TheActualDave said:

The local businesses will need any tourist dollars they can get in the next couple of years. The more people that visit, the quicker the recovery. 

Exactly!

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11 deaths so far, inc 8 on St Martin. Lots of damage at St Martin marinas...so chances are the clueless patreon couple lost their boat.

 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-irma/hurricane-irma-leaves-11-dead-as-it-tears-through-caribbean-idUSKCN1BG0KL

edit: I see now there's 3 deaths reported in Puerto Rico. That's in addition to the 11 reported on the other islands. Nothing from Haiti yet, but I imagine there will be a number of deaths there.

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One of the most important things a sailing or commercial shipping town or seaport can do after a knockdown hurricane is show they are open for business--even in part-- as soon as possible after the storm. 

My knowledge of the Drake Passage islands is 40 years old.  But speaking as one voice from New Orleans, it was very important for local morale and national/world press to get a ship into a city berth and unloaded (with borrowed stevodores from Lake Charles) two weeks after Katrina. You want to let the world know that, and the media will want to tell it.

Same with sailing on Lake Pontchartrain, it was a slow process, but steady.  SYC (who lost their building entirely) opened up for sailing lessons the following spring, with us using chain hoists to get the Scots in and out on the cranes.  They had one water outlet working, no electricity, but they sailed.  Good on 'em.  The lessons were as ever regarding learning sailing, but the landmarks were different--"see that pile of red twisted steel that used to be the Coast Guard Auxiliary building?  Head for that".  "Watch out for that angled mast sticking out of the water".  "See that white thing floating ahead?  It's a refrigerator, tack around it".   So yes, it was a disaster tour plus a lesson.  Whether that would work for a cruise rather than a lesson, I can't say.  But it was definitely more memorable sailing than when everything was "normal".

My would-be point is, try to patronize those businesses that are trying to get back on their feet, in the early recovery days.  They'll love you for it, will go out of their way to guide and help, and you'll be doing a good deed, and who knows, you may find it more rewarding and interesting than "just another day in paradise".

 

PS, and I never thought I'd say it-- New Orleans may be the place to evacuate to from Florida, we look like lucky SOB's so far.  You'd rather get rained all over in Atlanta?

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31 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

... 

If your idea of a good charter vacation is to get the vessel, provision it for you and your guests, and then go touring destroyed anchorages and a now desolate landscape then it will be a nice time.

 

My idea of a sailing vacation doesn't include going from mooring to mooring and bar to bar with a bunch of clueless drunks. No offense intended.

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8 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

My idea of a sailing vacation doesn't include going from mooring to mooring and bar to bar with a bunch of clueless drunks. No offense intended.

No offense taken.  Different strokes, different folks.  The moorings, and their inhabitants are a fact of life down there. 

My idea of a sailing vacation differs from that of some of my guests.  A certain amount of party, a certain amount of creature comforts are required in certain proportions to make the trip enjoyable for everyone - not just those of us who like to spend hours pointing the bows in a random direction and then trimming the sails to suit.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4861184/Shocking-scale-destruction-Tortola-revealed.html

 

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The future of the charter industry not only depends upon how they recover from the current disaster but also on how the insurance companies shall react to it  in the future. I do not have the chart at hand to show you the increse of claims paid in Billions of Dollars since hurricane 'Andrew'  some 25 years ago. But believe me it is definately more than double if not triple.  And it is steadily rising. Some of these Dollars are attributable to  increse of sums insured over these years. But a larger portion is due to  increased frequency and severety which in all likelyhood shall continue to rise.

Insurers couldnt give a damn about salvaging an industry. They just have to recover their losses and make sure they are not going to make a loss going forward. This means two things. They either charge an exhorbitant premium with an unreasonable deductible, or simply they do not provide coverage. Either way the chartering industry is facing a very hard time.

 

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1 minute ago, RKoch said:

I think this is (or was) Foxy's on Jost Van Dyke:

 

image.jpg

Ivan's stress free bar where Keith Richards once hung out and Kenny Chesney was getting drunk and singing as of late. From that area of JVD you can get Cell Coverage from St.Thomas.  Places like Anegada, Virgin Gorda, and Anegada are still without any coms except a few sat phones. 

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 this is overlooking Mooring's base in Road Town. The building with red roof partially torn off may be part of Village Cay?

image.jpg

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2 minutes ago, RKoch said:

I think this is (or was) Foxy's on Jost Van Dyke. Not certain.

 

image.jpg

Unless they moved that is not Foxy's, we were there in '93 and it is in the bay tucked into the NE corner. also there were only 2 police Samurai's on the island then with only a small paved footpath back to the ice house.

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6 minutes ago, Omer said:

The future of the charter industry not only depends upon how they recover from the current disaster but also on how the insurance companies shall react to it  in the future. I do not have the chart at hand to show you the increse of claims paid in Billions of Dollars since hurricane 'Andrew'  some 25 years ago. But believe me it is definately more than double if not triple.  And it is steadily rising. Some of these Dollars are attributable to  increse of sums insured over these years. But a larger portion is due to  increased frequency and severety which in all likelyhood shall continue to rise.

Insurers couldnt give a damn about salvaging an industry. They just have to recover their losses and make sure they are not going to make a loss going forward. This means two things. They either charge an exhorbitant premium with an unreasonable deductible, or simply they do not provide coverage. Either way the chartering industry is facing a very hard time.

 

Well do not forget the boat building industry builds the charter boats, and the banks finance them at above industry interest rates.  This is more than the charter boat industry.  The trend was already larger much more expensive complex boats. Big and expensive charters first.  The small boats sit at the dock hoping someone will rent them much of the time. 

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10 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Back in the day didn't all the boats head north for the summer and back again in November? Might get back to that..........

Private boats, yea. The charter boats stay there year round.

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10 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Back in the day didn't all the boats head north for the summer and back again in November? Might get back to that..........

The Moorings alone has 1,000 charter boats with over 2,000 in the BVI rental fleets.  There is no way to deliver that back and forth or anyplace to put them if you could.  

Pooled risk insurance and share  self insurance risk is the only way the industry can go or die.

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3 minutes ago, Swabbie said:

although everything might have been sandblasted  away 

Everyone +/- 100 that stayed lived but they are looking for some help.  Finding a boat and help well everyone needs that for 500 miles...

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Here is a helo tour of the damage on St Martin. No corner of the island seems to have been spared. I was relieved to not be able to spot a friends boat in the views of the haulout yard near the airport. I know the boat was hauled for season there last year so hope it is still in one piece. 

The opening shot in this video is shows 13 out of 17 catamarans flipped upside down! 

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17 minutes ago, ~HHN92~ said:

Unless they moved that is not Foxy's, we were there in '93 and it is in the bay tucked into the NE corner. also there were only 2 police Samurai's on the island then with only a small paved footpath back to the ice house.

It was Ivan's. Next bay to the west. I imagine Foxy's is gone too.

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13 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Back in the day didn't all the boats head north for the summer and back again in November? Might get back to that..........

The horse has gone.

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2 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

If they stay, it might be sans insurance after this.........

Or self insure, in the case of the larger operations.

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Unbelievable amount of human suffering in the islands. Bahamas could be worse being on the north side of this beast. And then they have Jose to deal with. Majorly fucked up situation.

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Word is starting to get out.  Many of the boats that stayed upright literally had the sticks blown out of them. 

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1 hour ago, TimFordi550#87 said:

What happened to the lady's shed, the woman who was "overlooking Magens Bay"...did that shed survive?   I saw the doors leave the structure and the thing distorting pretty wickedly. Then I had to step away from the computer.

 If that shed survived, I want one.  That was one helluva a shed.  

Just curious. 

I also had to step away just when it was getting puffy.  Roof about to peel back.  Tough little guy.

And Trump's house on St. Martin?  Will The Donald get a two-fer insurance claim out of one hurricane if Irma decides to cruise North Beach?

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Canal,

     I noticed just that on a couple of the helo shots from STM. There were a gaggle of 40-45' monohulls tightly rafted together and tucked behind some stout looking docks and most were still sitting upright with a couple at the edges of the cluster swamped or sunk. None of the had masts showing but there were a few masted laid flat across the group. Made me wonder if they had gone to the trouble of pulling rigs before rafting them up but I then realized that the masts seemed to have been blown right out of the boats. Must have been  deck stepped! 

Start the video at 3:09 if this link doesn't take you right to that point. Where are the rigs?

 

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Well just had a look at Mikes weather page. The spaghetti is coming together over Miami. A direct hit on Miami by a cat 4/5 is not going to be pretty. 

That early evacuation may be a life saver. 

I have just caught up with some friends who were in the BVI/St Marten/ Antigua and set sail SOuth when it was looking likely that there was going to be a serious storm on it's way. 

They all made it and were tucked up in Martinique or further South when Irma blew through. 

 

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9 hours ago, Panoramix said:

You started this whole discussion so who's the preacher? 

Then if you haven't found the right answers, you haven't been searching very hard, there is plenty of peer reviewed research on the subject. Here is a balanced summary: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/09/hurricanes-and-global-warming/

Blogs by authors who weren't clever enough to do a PhD in science, cheery pick info that suits them before rambling about conspiracy theories are not "balanced". 

Lastly your data isn't as conclusive as you think. Half of incidences of an event in the last twenty years of a seventy year period of observation may not be a random event. There may well be an underlying trend. 

Anyway this is not climate anarchy, you can bring your anti science agenda somewhere else. 

What drugs are you on?

First, I did NOT start this.

Second, I did NOT rely on any blogs or conspiracy theorists.

Third, I did NOT say anything is conclusive.

Finally, I NEVER said climate change can't affect storms.

Try reading what people actually say instead of putting words in their mouths.  All I did was post a reminder that big nasty storms have been around for a while, and, if there is a trend, it's not that obvious.  Don't read any more into it than that.

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1 hour ago, Blue Crab said:

My idea of a sailing vacation doesn't include going from mooring to mooring and bar to bar with a bunch of clueless drunks. No offense intended.

hey, i resemble that statement :P

 

ps..I have a clue sober or otherwise

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7 minutes ago, Not Me said:

looks to me like all of them got their rigs knocked down. :/

At Nanny Cay Tortola all the boats on the hard were either knock down or the rigs knocked out.  On option they offered was sand screws to secure the boats upright. Those that paid for that option lost their rigs? Rigs blown out of cruising boats? 

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Seeing all the flipped cats makes me wonder about prevention.  Take on water ballast maybe?  Or somehow disturb the airflow under the boat.  Park a dinghy or two under there?  Fill em with water and tie to bow?

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Pinellas County (St Petersburg) just issued a mandatory Level A evacuation effective tomorrow morning. This would be the most flood-prone areas and all mobile homes. Not sure where everybody's going to go...I think hotels are already booked by evacuees from the Keys and east coast. I-75 north still a traffic jam. I think the Keys have mostly already cleared out, evacuation ordered for some Miami areas and Broward. Palm Beach county is ordering people to stay put, as there's no gas. Georgia has ordered evacuations of all area east of I-95. 

Noon update from MacDill AFB (Tampa) is that we're just going to see Tropical Storm force winds. We're almost out of the cone now...each update shifts the projected track east. Probably only NE St Pete gets flooding, and they get it all the time. Right now, things look the worst for Miami and the GA/SC coastlines.

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7 minutes ago, easywind said:

From the link: "We are still assessing the damage, but whole houses and trees have disappeared. Outside of the bunker, bathroom and bedroom doors and windows have flown 40 feet away."

Can only guess that the reinforced packaging tape shown in this BEFORE photo did not hold up.

 

Irma Necker Is.JPG

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things look the worst for Miami and the GA/SC coastlines.


This storm is really fucking up all of the areas that are special to me and my family....

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Seeing all the flipped cats makes me wonder about prevention.  Take on water ballast maybe?  Or somehow disturb the airflow under the boat.  Park a dinghy or two under there?  Fill em with water and tie to bow?

You're thinking of them as proper boats. They're not...they're floating condos. No one would expect an RV to stay upright in 180mph winds. The cats are no different.

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T&C up next !
  looking right in the cross hairs of the northern eyewall!
  Stayed at a beautiful place on long beach last Jan. 
  It will be obliterated!
 
hifloat5.gif

         
  

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2 hours ago, RKoch said:

There will still be plenty of charter and private boats. And the beach shacks like Foxy's will be up and running pretty quickly.

does anyone have the most recent tracking model spaghetti chart. I see the cone of silence from NOAA-NHC, but would kinda like to see how the spaghetti is laying out. Family spread in Naples is on my mind. It is shut down for the summer, but not exactly storm proofed beyond the storm shutters have been closed.

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1 minute ago, Lono said:

does anyone have the most recent tracking model spaghetti chart. I see the cone of silence from NOAA-NHC, but would kinda like to see how the spaghetti is laying out. Family spread in Naples is on my mind. It is shut down for the summer, but not exactly storm proofed beyond the storm shutters have been closed.

Florida west coast is now on the extreme west side of cone. I think only a couple of spaghetti outliers have the storm coming this side. We'll still see some TS wind and lots of rain.

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4 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

 

 
T&C up next !
  looking right in the cross hairs of the northern eyewall!
  Stayed at a beautiful place on long beach last Jan. 
  It will be obliterated!
 
hifloat5.gif

 

         
  

 

Southern Bahamas were under evacuation. IDK about T&C. They're going to be hit really hard.

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42 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Sounds like Anegada survived, from Facebook below:

"I just heard from Shirley Vanterpool my sister, everyone is safe on Anegada, most homes and houses r destroyed. They r requesting assistance"

https://www.facebook.com/search/str/bvi%2Bcommunity%2Bboard/stories-keyword/stories-public

There is some good info coming in on that FB page. Sounds like a Royal Navy ship w/marines and engineers will be arriving in BVI this afternoon. That's good news. Communications are mostly down, it sounds like.

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9 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Florida west coast is now on the extreme west side of cone. I think only a couple of spaghetti outliers have the storm coming this side. We'll still see some TS wind and lots of rain.

R,  looks like a green string is lining up right through St. Pete/T in the latest from WUG, https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma?map=model

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23 minutes ago, Lono said:

does anyone have the most recent tracking model spaghetti chart. I see the cone of silence from NOAA-NHC, but would kinda like to see how the spaghetti is laying out. Family spread in Naples is on my mind. It is shut down for the summer, but not exactly storm proofed beyond the storm shutters have been closed.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

GFS spaghetti model - 11L_gefs_latest.png

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4 minutes ago, dolphinmaster said:

R,  looks like a green string is lining up right through St. Pete/T in the latest from WUG, https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma?map=model

Yes, the farthest left models indicate the west coast is still a possibility. Most indicate right up the east coast, perhaps even just offshore. The European model indicates that, and it has a pretty good reliability record. Also, each update shifts a little further east, so the trend is that way. 

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From these more recent photos of the Mooring docks in Roadtown, it looks like the second half of the storm really cleared the docks out,

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31 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Seeing all the flipped cats makes me wonder about prevention.  Take on water ballast maybe?  Or somehow disturb the airflow under the boat.  Park a dinghy or two under there?  Fill em with water and tie to bow?

Ian Farrier said that was the best thing to do with one of his trimarans.  Also, wide-knitted tramps as more closely knitted ones can trap a lot of air.  But I think two other things might be going on.  One is that none of these boats could weathervane into the wind.  The other is that the wedding cake on these cruising cats can make an effective wing:  a little upturn and a lot of lift.  I've watched cats and tris on moorings in winds in the upper 60s, and they would lie quietly into the wind when the monos were bucking like crazy.  But that is only 1/10th of the wind force at work here.

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I'm pretty sad and scared for Turks & Caicos right now. So low lying and nothing but sand... I have a feeling that might be the hardest hit we see. Miami is going to be a mess too. The euro models that are historically the most accurate have it as a near-direct hit. This is not looking pretty.

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