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Have a booking from Tortola as well, for NYE +2 weeks. The charter company vaguely claims that "the boats seems to be OK", and will come back to us after Jose has passed. I suspect the person on the other end wasn't on BVI.

However, if true, I suspect it's going to be lonely for us cruising around there with all the damage to the fleets.

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15 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

We only got a week to work with.  Going outside the hemisphere isn't really an option due to travel times.  I keep telling myself to wait and see what they say.

I'd see about relocating to Grenada or Abacos if they can't handle you in Tortola.

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Just now, money drain said:

Have a booking from Tortola as well, for NYE +2 weeks. The charter company vaguely claims that "the boats seems to be OK", and will come back to us after Jose has passed. I suspect the person on the other end wasn't on BVI.

However, if true, I suspect it's going to be lonely for us cruising around there with all the damage to the fleets.

I'd consider that a plus.

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1 minute ago, money drain said:

Have a booking from Tortola as well, for NYE +2 weeks. The charter company vaguely claims that "the boats seems to be OK", and will come back to us after Jose has passed. I suspect the person on the other end wasn't on BVI.

However, if true, I suspect it's going to be lonely for us cruising around there with all the damage to the fleets.

There will still be plenty of charter and private boats. And the beach shacks like Foxy's will be up and running pretty quickly.

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Just now, Blue Crab said:

I'd consider that a plus.

It's going to be lonely, and a place without destinations.  Who knows what the conditions of the mooring fields are - and even then, what those mooring fields service.  Bitter End? Soggy? The Settlement?  Who knows whether those places we use as anchorages even still exist... 

If your idea of a good charter vacation is to get the vessel, provision it for you and your guests, and then go touring destroyed anchorages and a now desolate landscape then it will be a nice time.

 

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2 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

I'd consider that a plus.

Same here. Last time I was there was before the offseason had ended, and the anchorages were still packed. 

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I was in the BVIs in November 2003 and saw nothing but heavy rain for a week. There was an hour or so of sunshine when I was underwater diving the Rhone.:( I think the total rainfall was 17 inches. Lots of landslides and flooding and that wasn't even a hurricane. Airport was closed and I couldn't get out for days. It took months to recover. This will be far worst. December seems too close if you are looking for what the BVIs normally promise.

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9 minutes ago, money drain said:

Have a booking from Tortola as well, for NYE +2 weeks. The charter company vaguely claims that "the boats seems to be OK", and will come back to us after Jose has passed. I suspect the person on the other end wasn't on BVI.

However, if true, I suspect it's going to be lonely for us cruising around there with all the damage to the fleets.

Most do not have the cash to refund the deposits and prepayments. The cash crisis will be a major mess. At the end of the day the ladies on the phones and the guys on the docks are brokers and agents for independently owned and contracted boats. Moistly shell corporations with little or no assets.  The Moorings/KKR does own their base and hotel. Likely all in different legal entities. 

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8 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

It's going to be lonely, and a place without destinations.  Who knows what the conditions of the mooring fields are - and even then, what those mooring fields service.  Bitter End? Soggy? The Settlement?  Who knows whether those places we use as anchorages even still exist... 

If your idea of a good charter vacation is to get the vessel, provision it for you and your guests, and then go touring destroyed anchorages and a now desolate landscape then it will be a nice time.

 

As someone mentioned, some places will be up and running again in no time. What those places and the people who live there will need the most is people coming and spending money. I think it will be fine in regards to us having a good time.

 

Just now, Canal Bottom said:

Most do not have the cash to refund the deposits and prepayments. The cash crisis will be a major mess. At the end of the day the ladies on the phones and the guys on the docks are brokers and agents for independently owned and contracted boats. Moistly shell corporations with little or no assets.  The Moorings/KKR does own their base and hotel. Likely all in different legal entities. 

The parent company of Sunsail/Moorings (TUI) doesn't really have a history of having their shit together in all their entities when things go awry. Don't know about their boat charter business though, only chartered from them once without hiccups.

I'm not at all worried about my deposit. That's what travel insurance is for, they have covered similar things for me before.

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What happened to the lady's shed, the woman who was "overlooking Magens Bay"...did that shed survive?   I saw the doors leave the structure and the thing distorting pretty wickedly. Then I had to step away from the computer.

 If that shed survived, I want one.  That was one helluva a shed.  

Just curious. 

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7 minutes ago, TheActualDave said:

The local businesses will need any tourist dollars they can get in the next couple of years. The more people that visit, the quicker the recovery. 

Exactly!

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11 deaths so far, inc 8 on St Martin. Lots of damage at St Martin marinas...so chances are the clueless patreon couple lost their boat.

 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-irma/hurricane-irma-leaves-11-dead-as-it-tears-through-caribbean-idUSKCN1BG0KL

edit: I see now there's 3 deaths reported in Puerto Rico. That's in addition to the 11 reported on the other islands. Nothing from Haiti yet, but I imagine there will be a number of deaths there.

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One of the most important things a sailing or commercial shipping town or seaport can do after a knockdown hurricane is show they are open for business--even in part-- as soon as possible after the storm. 

My knowledge of the Drake Passage islands is 40 years old.  But speaking as one voice from New Orleans, it was very important for local morale and national/world press to get a ship into a city berth and unloaded (with borrowed stevodores from Lake Charles) two weeks after Katrina. You want to let the world know that, and the media will want to tell it.

Same with sailing on Lake Pontchartrain, it was a slow process, but steady.  SYC (who lost their building entirely) opened up for sailing lessons the following spring, with us using chain hoists to get the Scots in and out on the cranes.  They had one water outlet working, no electricity, but they sailed.  Good on 'em.  The lessons were as ever regarding learning sailing, but the landmarks were different--"see that pile of red twisted steel that used to be the Coast Guard Auxiliary building?  Head for that".  "Watch out for that angled mast sticking out of the water".  "See that white thing floating ahead?  It's a refrigerator, tack around it".   So yes, it was a disaster tour plus a lesson.  Whether that would work for a cruise rather than a lesson, I can't say.  But it was definitely more memorable sailing than when everything was "normal".

My would-be point is, try to patronize those businesses that are trying to get back on their feet, in the early recovery days.  They'll love you for it, will go out of their way to guide and help, and you'll be doing a good deed, and who knows, you may find it more rewarding and interesting than "just another day in paradise".

 

PS, and I never thought I'd say it-- New Orleans may be the place to evacuate to from Florida, we look like lucky SOB's so far.  You'd rather get rained all over in Atlanta?

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31 minutes ago, MauganTornado said:

... 

If your idea of a good charter vacation is to get the vessel, provision it for you and your guests, and then go touring destroyed anchorages and a now desolate landscape then it will be a nice time.

 

My idea of a sailing vacation doesn't include going from mooring to mooring and bar to bar with a bunch of clueless drunks. No offense intended.

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8 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

My idea of a sailing vacation doesn't include going from mooring to mooring and bar to bar with a bunch of clueless drunks. No offense intended.

No offense taken.  Different strokes, different folks.  The moorings, and their inhabitants are a fact of life down there. 

My idea of a sailing vacation differs from that of some of my guests.  A certain amount of party, a certain amount of creature comforts are required in certain proportions to make the trip enjoyable for everyone - not just those of us who like to spend hours pointing the bows in a random direction and then trimming the sails to suit.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4861184/Shocking-scale-destruction-Tortola-revealed.html

 

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The future of the charter industry not only depends upon how they recover from the current disaster but also on how the insurance companies shall react to it  in the future. I do not have the chart at hand to show you the increse of claims paid in Billions of Dollars since hurricane 'Andrew'  some 25 years ago. But believe me it is definately more than double if not triple.  And it is steadily rising. Some of these Dollars are attributable to  increse of sums insured over these years. But a larger portion is due to  increased frequency and severety which in all likelyhood shall continue to rise.

Insurers couldnt give a damn about salvaging an industry. They just have to recover their losses and make sure they are not going to make a loss going forward. This means two things. They either charge an exhorbitant premium with an unreasonable deductible, or simply they do not provide coverage. Either way the chartering industry is facing a very hard time.

 

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1 minute ago, RKoch said:

I think this is (or was) Foxy's on Jost Van Dyke:

 

image.jpg

Ivan's stress free bar where Keith Richards once hung out and Kenny Chesney was getting drunk and singing as of late. From that area of JVD you can get Cell Coverage from St.Thomas.  Places like Anegada, Virgin Gorda, and Anegada are still without any coms except a few sat phones. 

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 this is overlooking Mooring's base in Road Town. The building with red roof partially torn off may be part of Village Cay?

image.jpg

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2 minutes ago, RKoch said:

I think this is (or was) Foxy's on Jost Van Dyke. Not certain.

 

image.jpg

Unless they moved that is not Foxy's, we were there in '93 and it is in the bay tucked into the NE corner. also there were only 2 police Samurai's on the island then with only a small paved footpath back to the ice house.

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6 minutes ago, Omer said:

The future of the charter industry not only depends upon how they recover from the current disaster but also on how the insurance companies shall react to it  in the future. I do not have the chart at hand to show you the increse of claims paid in Billions of Dollars since hurricane 'Andrew'  some 25 years ago. But believe me it is definately more than double if not triple.  And it is steadily rising. Some of these Dollars are attributable to  increse of sums insured over these years. But a larger portion is due to  increased frequency and severety which in all likelyhood shall continue to rise.

Insurers couldnt give a damn about salvaging an industry. They just have to recover their losses and make sure they are not going to make a loss going forward. This means two things. They either charge an exhorbitant premium with an unreasonable deductible, or simply they do not provide coverage. Either way the chartering industry is facing a very hard time.

 

Well do not forget the boat building industry builds the charter boats, and the banks finance them at above industry interest rates.  This is more than the charter boat industry.  The trend was already larger much more expensive complex boats. Big and expensive charters first.  The small boats sit at the dock hoping someone will rent them much of the time. 

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10 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Back in the day didn't all the boats head north for the summer and back again in November? Might get back to that..........

Private boats, yea. The charter boats stay there year round.

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10 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Back in the day didn't all the boats head north for the summer and back again in November? Might get back to that..........

The Moorings alone has 1,000 charter boats with over 2,000 in the BVI rental fleets.  There is no way to deliver that back and forth or anyplace to put them if you could.  

Pooled risk insurance and share  self insurance risk is the only way the industry can go or die.

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3 minutes ago, Swabbie said:

although everything might have been sandblasted  away 

Everyone +/- 100 that stayed lived but they are looking for some help.  Finding a boat and help well everyone needs that for 500 miles...

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Here is a helo tour of the damage on St Martin. No corner of the island seems to have been spared. I was relieved to not be able to spot a friends boat in the views of the haulout yard near the airport. I know the boat was hauled for season there last year so hope it is still in one piece. 

The opening shot in this video is shows 13 out of 17 catamarans flipped upside down! 

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17 minutes ago, ~HHN92~ said:

Unless they moved that is not Foxy's, we were there in '93 and it is in the bay tucked into the NE corner. also there were only 2 police Samurai's on the island then with only a small paved footpath back to the ice house.

It was Ivan's. Next bay to the west. I imagine Foxy's is gone too.

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13 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Back in the day didn't all the boats head north for the summer and back again in November? Might get back to that..........

The horse has gone.

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2 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

If they stay, it might be sans insurance after this.........

Or self insure, in the case of the larger operations.

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Unbelievable amount of human suffering in the islands. Bahamas could be worse being on the north side of this beast. And then they have Jose to deal with. Majorly fucked up situation.

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Word is starting to get out.  Many of the boats that stayed upright literally had the sticks blown out of them. 

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1 hour ago, TimFordi550#87 said:

What happened to the lady's shed, the woman who was "overlooking Magens Bay"...did that shed survive?   I saw the doors leave the structure and the thing distorting pretty wickedly. Then I had to step away from the computer.

 If that shed survived, I want one.  That was one helluva a shed.  

Just curious. 

I also had to step away just when it was getting puffy.  Roof about to peel back.  Tough little guy.

And Trump's house on St. Martin?  Will The Donald get a two-fer insurance claim out of one hurricane if Irma decides to cruise North Beach?

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Canal,

     I noticed just that on a couple of the helo shots from STM. There were a gaggle of 40-45' monohulls tightly rafted together and tucked behind some stout looking docks and most were still sitting upright with a couple at the edges of the cluster swamped or sunk. None of the had masts showing but there were a few masted laid flat across the group. Made me wonder if they had gone to the trouble of pulling rigs before rafting them up but I then realized that the masts seemed to have been blown right out of the boats. Must have been  deck stepped! 

Start the video at 3:09 if this link doesn't take you right to that point. Where are the rigs?

 

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Well just had a look at Mikes weather page. The spaghetti is coming together over Miami. A direct hit on Miami by a cat 4/5 is not going to be pretty. 

That early evacuation may be a life saver. 

I have just caught up with some friends who were in the BVI/St Marten/ Antigua and set sail SOuth when it was looking likely that there was going to be a serious storm on it's way. 

They all made it and were tucked up in Martinique or further South when Irma blew through. 

 

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9 hours ago, Panoramix said:

You started this whole discussion so who's the preacher? 

Then if you haven't found the right answers, you haven't been searching very hard, there is plenty of peer reviewed research on the subject. Here is a balanced summary: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/09/hurricanes-and-global-warming/

Blogs by authors who weren't clever enough to do a PhD in science, cheery pick info that suits them before rambling about conspiracy theories are not "balanced". 

Lastly your data isn't as conclusive as you think. Half of incidences of an event in the last twenty years of a seventy year period of observation may not be a random event. There may well be an underlying trend. 

Anyway this is not climate anarchy, you can bring your anti science agenda somewhere else. 

What drugs are you on?

First, I did NOT start this.

Second, I did NOT rely on any blogs or conspiracy theorists.

Third, I did NOT say anything is conclusive.

Finally, I NEVER said climate change can't affect storms.

Try reading what people actually say instead of putting words in their mouths.  All I did was post a reminder that big nasty storms have been around for a while, and, if there is a trend, it's not that obvious.  Don't read any more into it than that.

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1 hour ago, Blue Crab said:

My idea of a sailing vacation doesn't include going from mooring to mooring and bar to bar with a bunch of clueless drunks. No offense intended.

hey, i resemble that statement :P

 

ps..I have a clue sober or otherwise

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7 minutes ago, Not Me said:

looks to me like all of them got their rigs knocked down. :/

At Nanny Cay Tortola all the boats on the hard were either knock down or the rigs knocked out.  On option they offered was sand screws to secure the boats upright. Those that paid for that option lost their rigs? Rigs blown out of cruising boats? 

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Seeing all the flipped cats makes me wonder about prevention.  Take on water ballast maybe?  Or somehow disturb the airflow under the boat.  Park a dinghy or two under there?  Fill em with water and tie to bow?

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Pinellas County (St Petersburg) just issued a mandatory Level A evacuation effective tomorrow morning. This would be the most flood-prone areas and all mobile homes. Not sure where everybody's going to go...I think hotels are already booked by evacuees from the Keys and east coast. I-75 north still a traffic jam. I think the Keys have mostly already cleared out, evacuation ordered for some Miami areas and Broward. Palm Beach county is ordering people to stay put, as there's no gas. Georgia has ordered evacuations of all area east of I-95. 

Noon update from MacDill AFB (Tampa) is that we're just going to see Tropical Storm force winds. We're almost out of the cone now...each update shifts the projected track east. Probably only NE St Pete gets flooding, and they get it all the time. Right now, things look the worst for Miami and the GA/SC coastlines.

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7 minutes ago, easywind said:

From the link: "We are still assessing the damage, but whole houses and trees have disappeared. Outside of the bunker, bathroom and bedroom doors and windows have flown 40 feet away."

Can only guess that the reinforced packaging tape shown in this BEFORE photo did not hold up.

 

Irma Necker Is.JPG

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things look the worst for Miami and the GA/SC coastlines.


This storm is really fucking up all of the areas that are special to me and my family....

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Seeing all the flipped cats makes me wonder about prevention.  Take on water ballast maybe?  Or somehow disturb the airflow under the boat.  Park a dinghy or two under there?  Fill em with water and tie to bow?

You're thinking of them as proper boats. They're not...they're floating condos. No one would expect an RV to stay upright in 180mph winds. The cats are no different.

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T&C up next !
  looking right in the cross hairs of the northern eyewall!
  Stayed at a beautiful place on long beach last Jan. 
  It will be obliterated!
 
hifloat5.gif

         
  

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2 hours ago, RKoch said:

There will still be plenty of charter and private boats. And the beach shacks like Foxy's will be up and running pretty quickly.

does anyone have the most recent tracking model spaghetti chart. I see the cone of silence from NOAA-NHC, but would kinda like to see how the spaghetti is laying out. Family spread in Naples is on my mind. It is shut down for the summer, but not exactly storm proofed beyond the storm shutters have been closed.

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1 minute ago, Lono said:

does anyone have the most recent tracking model spaghetti chart. I see the cone of silence from NOAA-NHC, but would kinda like to see how the spaghetti is laying out. Family spread in Naples is on my mind. It is shut down for the summer, but not exactly storm proofed beyond the storm shutters have been closed.

Florida west coast is now on the extreme west side of cone. I think only a couple of spaghetti outliers have the storm coming this side. We'll still see some TS wind and lots of rain.

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4 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

 

 
T&C up next !
  looking right in the cross hairs of the northern eyewall!
  Stayed at a beautiful place on long beach last Jan. 
  It will be obliterated!
 
hifloat5.gif

 

         
  

 

Southern Bahamas were under evacuation. IDK about T&C. They're going to be hit really hard.

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42 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Sounds like Anegada survived, from Facebook below:

"I just heard from Shirley Vanterpool my sister, everyone is safe on Anegada, most homes and houses r destroyed. They r requesting assistance"

https://www.facebook.com/search/str/bvi%2Bcommunity%2Bboard/stories-keyword/stories-public

There is some good info coming in on that FB page. Sounds like a Royal Navy ship w/marines and engineers will be arriving in BVI this afternoon. That's good news. Communications are mostly down, it sounds like.

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9 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Florida west coast is now on the extreme west side of cone. I think only a couple of spaghetti outliers have the storm coming this side. We'll still see some TS wind and lots of rain.

R,  looks like a green string is lining up right through St. Pete/T in the latest from WUG, https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma?map=model

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23 minutes ago, Lono said:

does anyone have the most recent tracking model spaghetti chart. I see the cone of silence from NOAA-NHC, but would kinda like to see how the spaghetti is laying out. Family spread in Naples is on my mind. It is shut down for the summer, but not exactly storm proofed beyond the storm shutters have been closed.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

GFS spaghetti model - 11L_gefs_latest.png

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4 minutes ago, dolphinmaster said:

R,  looks like a green string is lining up right through St. Pete/T in the latest from WUG, https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma?map=model

Yes, the farthest left models indicate the west coast is still a possibility. Most indicate right up the east coast, perhaps even just offshore. The European model indicates that, and it has a pretty good reliability record. Also, each update shifts a little further east, so the trend is that way. 

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From these more recent photos of the Mooring docks in Roadtown, it looks like the second half of the storm really cleared the docks out,

Image may contain: sky, outdoor, water and nature

Image may contain: sky and outdoor

Image may contain: outdoor

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31 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Seeing all the flipped cats makes me wonder about prevention.  Take on water ballast maybe?  Or somehow disturb the airflow under the boat.  Park a dinghy or two under there?  Fill em with water and tie to bow?

Ian Farrier said that was the best thing to do with one of his trimarans.  Also, wide-knitted tramps as more closely knitted ones can trap a lot of air.  But I think two other things might be going on.  One is that none of these boats could weathervane into the wind.  The other is that the wedding cake on these cruising cats can make an effective wing:  a little upturn and a lot of lift.  I've watched cats and tris on moorings in winds in the upper 60s, and they would lie quietly into the wind when the monos were bucking like crazy.  But that is only 1/10th of the wind force at work here.

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I'm pretty sad and scared for Turks & Caicos right now. So low lying and nothing but sand... I have a feeling that might be the hardest hit we see. Miami is going to be a mess too. The euro models that are historically the most accurate have it as a near-direct hit. This is not looking pretty.

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35 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Or self insure, in the case of the larger operations.

No chance for self insurance. There are not enough items and not enough time to accumulate that fund. Unless you have 50.000 of a specimen to insure for, and 10 years between mean time failure, you cannot match the  current system. It is all about theory of large numbers.

İmagine you have a fleet of 1.000 boats, each worth  100.000 dollars. You have an exposure of 100.000.000 dollars. If you have a risk of loosing 50 percent of them in just catastrophic risks in  ten years (which is highly optimistic) you need to create a 50.000.000 dollars fund in ten years. Which corresponds to 5.000 dollars per boat per year. This may not seem unreasonable at first sight. But do not forget that this is only for cathastrophic losses.   You need just as much for mundane losses. And if this is not scary enough, imagine you got cought five years from now  and loose  50 percent of 100 M dollars, where your funds barely reach 25.

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2 minutes ago, Omer said:

No chance for self insurance. There are not enough items and not enough time to accumulate that fund. Unless you have 50.000 of a specimen to insure for, and 10 years between mean time failure, you cannot match the  current system. It is all about theory of large numbers.

İmagine you have a fleet of 1.000 boats, each worth  100.000 dollars. You have an exposure of 100.000.000 dollars. If you have a risk of loosing 50 percent of them in just catastrophic risks in  ten years (which is highly optimistic) you need to create a 50.000.000 dollars fund in ten years. Which corresponds to 5.000 dollars per boat per year. This may not seem unreasonable at first sight. But do not forget that this is only for cathastrophic losses.   You need just as much for mundane losses. And if this is not scary enough, imagine you got cought five years from now  and loose  50 percent of 100 M dollars, where your funds barely reach 25.

Youre forgetting that Moorings has several locations. So it might only be $2000/boat/year needed to cover a catastrophic loss at one location. That would be money spent anyway on ins payments. Mundane losses they already cover out of pocket or by retaining damage deposits. I doubt a small company could pull it off, but it's possible a large one can.

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11 minutes ago, Omer said:

No chance for self insurance. There are not enough items and not enough time to accumulate that fund. Unless you have 50.000 of a specimen to insure for, and 10 years between mean time failure, you cannot match the  current system. It is all about theory of large numbers.

İmagine you have a fleet of 1.000 boats, each worth  100.000 dollars. You have an exposure of 100.000.000 dollars. If you have a risk of loosing 50 percent of them in just catastrophic risks in  ten years (which is highly optimistic) you need to create a 50.000.000 dollars fund in ten years. Which corresponds to 5.000 dollars per boat per year. This may not seem unreasonable at first sight. But do not forget that this is only for cathastrophic losses.   You need just as much for mundane losses. And if this is not scary enough, imagine you got cought five years from now  and loose  50 percent of 100 M dollars, where your funds barely reach 25.

TUI (Moorings/Sunsail) is a massive travel conglomerate - as of 30 June 2017, they had EUR 2.2 billion cash on their balance sheet with overall assets of EUR 14.9 billion and equity of EUR 2.4B.  The charter companies are pip squeaks compared with their cruise and hotel lines.  While this would be a huge loss in their charter business, they have the financial wherewithal (and ability to tap the bond market if necessary) to fund replacement of the fleet.  As for the other charter companies, we'll probably see one or two less financially stable companies go under, while the better ones probably have some sort of insurance or tail risk coverage going:

http://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/6_Reports-and-presentations/Reports/2017/TUI_QB3_16-17_EN_170809_Web_geschuetzt.pdf-96f5fe757c5186340b70c97dab989fa8.pdf

http://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/6_Reports-and-presentations/Presentations/2017/TUI_Group_FY17-Q3-Results-vFINAL-WEBSITE.pdf-1e4e6e9f8a2a536c9d435eb61684284c.pdf 

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1 minute ago, jewingiv said:

TUI (Moorings/Sunsail) is a massive travel conglomerate - as of 30 June 2017, they had EUR 2.2 billion cash on their balance sheet with overall assets of EUR 14.9 billion and equity of EUR 2.4B.  The charter companies are pip squeaks compared with their cruise and hotel lines.  While this would be a huge loss in their charter business, they have the financial wherewithal (and ability to tap the bond market if necessary) to fund replacement of the fleet.  As for the other charter companies, we'll probably see one or two less financially stable companies go under, while the better ones probably have some sort of insurance or tail risk coverage going:

http://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/6_Reports-and-presentations/Reports/2017/TUI_QB3_16-17_EN_170809_Web_geschuetzt.pdf-96f5fe757c5186340b70c97dab989fa8.pdf

http://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/6_Reports-and-presentations/Presentations/2017/TUI_Group_FY17-Q3-Results-vFINAL-WEBSITE.pdf-1e4e6e9f8a2a536c9d435eb61684284c.pdf 

Further to the point above, TUI tapped the bond market in October 2016 for EUR 300 million and only had to pay a coupon of 2.125%.  They could easily do this again, especially as it's their only outstanding note:

http://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/bonds-and-ratings/bonds

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Barbuda literally is flattened. Very little left standing. Video:

 

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Saint Martin/Sint Marteen and BVI will be better equipped to recover. Relatively benevolent colonial powers will help provide the capital to rebuild as tourist destinations. 

 

I'm concerned for the future of American Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico....

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2 hours ago, RKoch said:

I think this is (or was) Foxy's on Jost Van Dyke. Not certain.

 

image.jpg

No, it's definitely not Foxy's.  Doesn't look like Great Harbour, Little Harbour, or Great Bay on Jost Van Dyke.

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4 minutes ago, jewingiv said:

Further to the point above, TUI tapped the bond market in October 2016 for EUR 300 million and only had to pay a coupon of 2.125%.  They could easily do this again, especially as it's their only outstanding note:

http://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/bonds-and-ratings/bonds

Of course, I just noticed that Moorings/Sunsail ("Travelopia") were sold in February to KKR, which has plenty of deep pockets of its own.  So the principle remains, even if the numbers above are not representative.

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I have some friends who live on St. John (USVI). Here's a report relayed from my friend's girlfriend after he rode out the storm.

I just got a call from Lee, power and most cell services are still out, except Verizon. He is SAFE!!!! The island though, is "pretty much a wreck", all the leaves have been stripped off all the trees (those few trees that are left) and it looks like winter,  boats that were left in the water had their lines break and ended up on the beach. He rode out the storm at the Westin and is about to head into town and will try to call later. He saw several of our friends and they are safe as well.

 

Sad, scary stuff. 

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5 minutes ago, AlienBowman said:

No, it's definitely not Foxy's.  Doesn't look like Great Harbour, Little Harbour, or Great Bay on Jost Van Dyke.

What about Foxy's Taboo on the east end of JVD?  The building is the right shade of blue.

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6 minutes ago, AlienBowman said:

No, it's definitely not Foxy's.  Doesn't look like Great Harbour, Little Harbour, or Great Bay on Jost Van Dyke.

Clarified earlier that it was Ivan's, on White Bay just to the west.

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    Sorry to bore everyone with another of my personal Hurricane Tales, but I just found this video post of Irma from inside a home on Tortola I think.

 

    What struck me was the sound in this clip which gave me chills as it was something I experienced on St John during a storm that I can't even recall. It was after Hugo as I had sold my beached trimaran in Culebra and had bought a hurricane damaged Passport 40 which was not yet been repaired and made habitable. We had rented a small pre-fab hardwood cottage on St John in anticipation of our first child (Hugo baby, imagine that!) and it sat on a low saddle of sorts between Chocolate Hole and Great Cruz Bay. That saddle between two higher hills acted as a funnel for even the normal tradewinds as evidenced by low stunted ground cover that could withstand the constant onslaught of the wind. Larger trees on either side which could not flourish in the venturi of that saddle. 

     The early winds of that hurricane were from the ESE and as they approached hurricane strength it was a real test of the design and engineering of those hardwood cottages. A friend of mine was importing them from Martinique where they were manufactured to the Euro standard on 1 meter between studs. Not really pre-fab but more of a kit home with nice mortise and tenon post and beam construction. The posts (studs) were the metric equivalent of a US 4x4 with a dado on the sides that accepted the ship lap siding planks which must have been 35mm thick or so. The ends of the posts had slots and bolt holes milled for galvanised brackets that joined the headers/joists/posts and sills together in a really sturdy unit. They had a great reputation for storm survival down Island and I was feeling confident in our place of refuge at the time. They had integral storm shutters and the place was closed up tight and we were hunkered down just fine. 

    When the winds started to peak and the williwaws came ripping through out private windtunnel in the saddle we could see other conventional 'stick built' homes nearby shedding porches, roofs and gradually starting to disintegrate. We heard horrendous howling shrieks with each gust that I couldn't account for until I looked closely at the shiplap siding and could see each 6" wide plank open up the seam with the next and the boards would start reverberating like the reeds in a harmonica! It was the leeward side of the house making this frightening sound as air within the cottage was sucked out. I could feel each howl coming by the air pressure in my ears and it seemed each different plank had its own pitch which alltogether sounded like a thousand screaming demons. The only window which was not shuttered was a small one over the kitchen sink as it was somewhat protected by a porch overhang and I carefully opened one of its leaves which stopped the terrible chorus of the shiplap planking. The stout little cottage fared just fine as did we but I would bet the house making the noises in the video posted above had similar shiplap siding which is very common in traditional Island architecture. When you think about it the ship lap is like a one way valve. When the wind is against it the lap seals up tight and we saw just the slightest of water ingress, but when the air inside needs to get out the lap opens up and equalizes the forces within the house. Must be part of the reason for that ages old technique. Here is the best photo of a similar hardwood kit home.

Image result for kit hardwood homes from Martinique

Here is a Hawaiian company offering very similar home in Bali Teak (Meranti). The Martinique outfit did theirs in Ipe which is about as tough and hard as wood comes which I think was sourced from French Guiana.

https://www.teakbali.com/hardwood-homes/caribbean/project-ca02/

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Omer said:

No chance for self insurance. There are not enough items and not enough time to accumulate that fund. Unless you have 50.000 of a specimen to insure for, and 10 years between mean time failure, you cannot match the  current system. It is all about theory of large numbers.

İmagine you have a fleet of 1.000 boats, each worth  100.000 dollars. You have an exposure of 100.000.000 dollars. If you have a risk of loosing 50 percent of them in just catastrophic risks in  ten years (which is highly optimistic) you need to create a 50.000.000 dollars fund in ten years. Which corresponds to 5.000 dollars per boat per year. This may not seem unreasonable at first sight. But do not forget that this is only for cathastrophic losses.   You need just as much for mundane losses. And if this is not scary enough, imagine you got cought five years from now  and loose  50 percent of 100 M dollars, where your funds barely reach 25.

The charter boat companies are a low capital near zero investment operation.  The capital is all the private owners and the credit they have that buy and "gift" the boats to the charter operators.  All somebody else's money. They are nothing but shell marketing companies. 

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7 minutes ago, jewingiv said:

What about Foxy's Taboo on the east end of JVD?  The building is the right shade of blue.

Could be.

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10 minutes ago, jewingiv said:

Of course, I just noticed that Moorings/Sunsail ("Travelopia") were sold in February to KKR, which has plenty of deep pockets of its own.  So the principle remains, even if the numbers above are not representative.

And even better, Travelopia owns Leopard catamarans. 

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8 minutes ago, jewingiv said:

What about Foxy's Taboo on the east end of JVD?  The building is the right shade of blue.

No pictures of Foxy's yet. There are no leaves on the trees anywhere.  Everything sticking up in the wind got damaged.

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2 minutes ago, Canal Bottom said:

No pictures of Foxy's yet. There are no leaves on the trees anywhere.  Everything sticking up in the wind got damaged.

Not the main Foxy's in Great Harbor and the trees, but the little one on the east end on the beach. 

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There are reports of several quite large (150 foot+) motoryachts in St Maarten totally trashed, some sunk.  Will try to post pics.  In St Barths also.

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Dutch marine at the island, thats the helicopter vid from before.

https://twitter.com/C_ZMCARIB

A Hercules 130 will fly from Curaceau to St Martin in a loop, two KDC-10 will fly a loop Curaceau to Netherlands.

Before hurricane extra military was send to island, now more will arrive.

First steps; clean airport, setup water and food and safety, get everything big out again before Jose.

The British, French and Dutch are working together.

I think 40K population in the Dutch part, 32 K in French part.

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6 minutes ago, P_Wop said:

There are reports of several quite large (150 foot+) motoryachts in St Maarten totally trashed, some sunk.  Will try to post pics.  In St Barths also.

The little bit of video I've seen from St Martin that shows marinas shows 100% destruction of boats.

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18 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Saint Martin/Sint Marteen and BVI will be better equipped to recover. Relatively benevolent colonial powers will help provide the capital to rebuild as tourist destinations. 

 

I'm concerned for the future of American Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico....

It is bad everywhere but your assumption that the US government is not attuned to the suffering in the USVI and Puerto Rico is inaccurate.  The US has much more resources to deploy than the UK, France, or the Netherlands (combined) and they are closer.  USVI and PR have National Guard units, US Coast Guard, and other US federal agencies already in place.  Announcements were made by the US Dept of Defense several days ago about deploying ships to Florida and the Caribbean for this purpose.  PR and USVI have been declared disaster areas by the President so the resources of FEMA and other US federal programs will be available. 

I recall the aftermath of Hurricane Marilyn in 1995.  We finally got our car out and got over the mountain to Charlotte Amalie the third day after the storm.  At the intersection at Nisky Center was a US Army Ranger, rifle slung over his shoulder, directing traffic.  It was a comforting sight.  C-130s would fly in full of supplies and anyone who was at the airport got a free ride out.

In my view, the main difference in the recovery of each island will be the attitude of the people there.  If you have ever spent any time in the Caribbean, you know that each island has a different attitude.

The damage is so widespread across the region that this already seems worse than other storms.

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4 minutes ago, ajbram said:

I have some friends who live on St. John (USVI). Here's a report relayed from my friend's girlfriend after he rode out the storm.

I just got a call from Lee, power and most cell services are still out, except Verizon. He is SAFE!!!! The island though, is "pretty much a wreck", all the leaves have been stripped off all the trees (those few trees that are left) and it looks like winter,  boats that were left in the water had their lines break and ended up on the beach. He rode out the storm at the Westin and is about to head into town and will try to call later. He saw several of our friends and they are safe as well.

 

Sad, scary stuff. 

Thanks for the new AJ,  

   I saw some photos of the Westin and it looked bad. I was on the crew that built that place (Virgin Grand) and was surprised to see a lot of those big fiberglass dormer windows in the upper floor suites blown out (or in!). That place had been hit hard by many storms in the 25 years or so since it was built but I never saw this sort of damage. Of course there hadn't more that a Cat 3 or margina Cat 4 but still hard to believe. I found my Avon Hard Pack 6 man life raft which was washed off of my boat in the Westin pool after one hurricane. Once again I can't remember which offhand but I might have to catalog my storms for my memoirs. Sad thing was that the liferaft had somehow been washed off my boat and onto the beach without the lanyard getting yanked to inflate it but as I limped down the beach to retrieve it a couple of Bubba's stay at the resort found it and pulled the tape off of the lanyard and popped it despite my yelling at them to not do so! I was pretty banged up from staying on my boat in a Hurricane only 10 days prior but still was ready to kick both their asses as they say there eating the candy bar protein things in the provisions kit. I was laying claim to the raft and the guy had just found the little rescue knife in the kit and looked at me and said to my disbelief, 'Finders Keepers, buddy!' Our dive master kept me from gouging the assholes eyes out and hotel security arrived but would probably let me have a go at the guy. He couldn't get the silly little folding knife open and his buddy was backing away and his confidence was fading fast and mumbled something about 'salvage rights' in a storm situation.

     I had a VHF handheld with me and started hailing the National Guard and VI police saying that there were looters on the hotel beach and gave the dumb guys description. I then told him that in the VI after a storm that looters were shot on sight. The cheap orange flare pistol had tumbled out of the liferaft kit and I grabbed it and loaded a 12 guage white flare into it and told the guy that I had authorisation to shoot any looters on sight myself and added 'you brought a rusty folding knife to a gunfight!' I worked for the resort and the security guys hauled off the guest with a wink in my direction before I could carry out my threat. My friend and I gathered up the raft and the bits and pieces and hauled down to his Jeep when a hotel security told me that they were holding the 'looter' in their office and had told him that he would have to make a statement for the National Guard who were still days away. They did a pretty good job of making that guy sweat.

 

     Odd to see reports are coming out of the VI that the governor had order confiscation of all firearms in the territory. Not sure if that is legit but after the looting on St Croix after Hugo I wouldn't be surprised!

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BEYC was destroyed.

95% of boats in Hurricane Hole St John are gone.

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1 minute ago, SailBlueH2O said:

 

if I recall correctly from a storm surge comparative chart yesterday of all the places referenced the Turks & Caicos had the highest surge...in the teens

High surge and relief measured in cm above sea level.  I love the TCI, but when i visited in 2013 i notice that most construction is pretty dodgy. Everything built on sand, lots of low-lying settlements. Not much high ground to go to. I have a bad feeling about their chances in this one.

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2 minutes ago, AlienBowman said:

It is bad everywhere but your assumption that the US government is not attuned to the suffering in the USVI and Puerto Rico is inaccurate.  The US has much more resources to deploy than the UK, France, or the Netherlands (combined) and they are closer.  USVI and PR have National Guard units, US Coast Guard, and other US federal agencies already in place.  Announcements were made by the US Dept of Defense several days ago about deploying ships to Florida and the Caribbean for this purpose.  PR and USVI have been declared disaster areas by the President so the resources of FEMA and other US federal programs will be available. 

I recall the aftermath of Hurricane Marilyn in 1995.  We finally got our car out and got over the mountain to Charlotte Amalie the third day after the storm.  At the intersection at Nisky Center was a US Army Ranger, rifle slung over his shoulder, directing traffic.  It was a comforting sight.  C-130s would fly in full of supplies and anyone who was at the airport got a free ride out.

In my view, the main difference in the recovery of each island will be the attitude of the people there.  If you have ever spent any time in the Caribbean, you know that each island has a different attitude.

The damage is so widespread across the region that this already seems worse than other storms.

I was amazed at how quick the US Navy pulled into Culebra after Hugo. Of course the only had to come maybe 25 miles from Roosevelt Roads to the SE. Even more amazing was that the NY National Guard flew their C-130 into that tiny airstrip on the island with what seemed like half the NYC Fire Department and Police Department with their Broncos and 4WD trucks handing out small gas generators and chainsaws. I figured it was because half those forces were Puerto Rican back in NYC anyway, but it seemed that the cops and firemen on that mission were Irish!. I asked and was told that if you were a cop or firefighter and you wanted to volunteer for that mission, you had to be an elite with a outstanding record. The response in Culebra was outstanding overall.

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13 minutes ago, AlienBowman said:

It is bad everywhere but your assumption that the US government is not attuned to the suffering in the USVI and Puerto Rico is inaccurate.  The US has much more resources to deploy than the UK, France, or the Netherlands (combined) and they are closer.  USVI and PR have National Guard units, US Coast Guard, and other US federal agencies already in place.  Announcements were made by the US Dept of Defense several days ago about deploying ships to Florida and the Caribbean for this purpose.  PR and USVI have been declared disaster areas by the President so the resources of FEMA and other US federal programs will be available. 

I recall the aftermath of Hurricane Marilyn in 1995.  We finally got our car out and got over the mountain to Charlotte Amalie the third day after the storm.  At the intersection at Nisky Center was a US Army Ranger, rifle slung over his shoulder, directing traffic.  It was a comforting sight.  C-130s would fly in full of supplies and anyone who was at the airport got a free ride out.

In my view, the main difference in the recovery of each island will be the attitude of the people there.  If you have ever spent any time