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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

      Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules.  Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo.  Warning and or timeout for a first offense.  PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members.  See above for penalties.  Caveat:  if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods.  We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post.   We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking.  There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious.  There is no standard, we will know it when we see it.  If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining.  Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious.  Deal with it.  Welcome to anarchy.   If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to.  They will be explained to you soon enough.  
A-NU-START

Irma

1,423 posts in this topic

21 minutes ago, AlienBowman said:

As advertised

 

Meanwhile the Air Force is evacuating F 15s and C17s from hurricane land to Wright Patt.   I should have a bit of an airshow tomorrow.

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Shit just got real. Jim Cantore  arrived just now Tampa airport.

 

 

image.jpg

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Just made it to Orlando from West Palm. Usually a three hour drive, but was seven this time. One of the huge plazas was out of gas, and lines were easily a hundred cars. Indintown was packed solid with boats on the hard. A lot of masts still up. Praying my roof stays on.

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Water Creek, Hurricane Hole, Coral Bay, St. John

 

3745521.jpg

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Is that building being blown over real, or Fake ?

Some mazing Instagram shots anyway.

 

 

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I-75 nb at midnight. This is near Ocala. Hearing it's taking 7-12 hours to get to Georgia (where the storm is also heading!).  At this point, I'd consider US 19/98 to I-10, and head west to Gulfport Miss or something. It's a drive, but at least you'll be able to get gas, motels, and out of the storms path.

 

image.jpg

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22 minutes ago, Fiji said:

Is that building being blown over real, or Fake ?

Some mazing Instagram shots anyway.

 

 

The early shots are fake or not Irma. The woman talking and filming about 2:40 is real...that's on St Martin. Didn't watch after that.

edit: just verified the exploding power transformer before 2:40 was Irma in Puerto Rico. 

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The second bit with the guy getting crunched by the truck was on LiveLeak last week.

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The pictures of the wrecked boats are making me immune to ASPCA ads.  Tragic.  

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Right now in Florida, it's easier to buy beer or a gun than to buy gas or bottled water....

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11 hours ago, Whisper said:

What drugs are you on?

First, I did NOT start this.

Second, I did NOT rely on any blogs or conspiracy theorists.

Third, I did NOT say anything is conclusive.

Finally, I NEVER said climate change can't affect storms.

Try reading what people actually say instead of putting words in their mouths.  All I did was post a reminder that big nasty storms have been around for a while, and, if there is a trend, it's not that obvious.  Don't read any more into it than that.

You did start this, using the usual technique of being the "merchant of doubts" on a topic that is now relatively well understood. That's a common technique by those who want to discredit science as scientific findings are never black and white and it is really easy to seed doubt in people minds. I may have reacted strongly but I thought that you were doing it on purpose, theyre are score of people astroturfing, the hurricane isn't finished and they have already started doing it as they don't want people to think that global warming might have contributed. 

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40 minutes ago, Panoramix said:

You did start this,

Hail the power of the Internet.  When you and Whisper first posted on this, you agreed.  Go back and re-read.   

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Well, this is certainly not fake, this is the real Caribbean live, so honest ! 

Much better then that Branson shit, that really makes me puke...

 

 

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14 hours ago, Rasputin22 said:

Here is a helo tour of the damage on St Martin. No corner of the island seems to have been spared. I was relieved to not be able to spot a friends boat in the views of the haulout yard near the airport. I know the boat was hauled for season there last year so hope it is still in one piece. 

The opening shot in this video is shows 13 out of 17 catamarans flipped upside down! 

This video is heartbraking...

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32 minutes ago, chuso007 said:

This video is heartbraking...

Hey Chuso, you are a bit slow, that video was heartbreaking 24hrs ago!  
By now there is a constant stream of very personal video's on youtube, one can start one, and the next one comes on automatically, and on and on.
Yes, it is fucking HEARTBREAKING indeed.
 
 
And you can understand it all !

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4 hours ago, RKoch said:

49th st and 22nd Abe north and the surrounding area is pretty high ground. If you're not in an evacuation zone, and in a sturdy house (cinderblock), you're best staying put. ...

Neighbor texted last night, worried because his house is frame, not block.

When it's a civilized hour, I'll text back reminding him that my 1930's built frame house was moved here from across the river in the 1980's and sustained no damage in Charlie. And that was with 1970's awning windows. Now it has modern windows. Except for a big picture window that was downwind in Charlie but might be upwind this time.

Our bigger house is a Palm Harbor modular. Go by their showroom sometime. Great pics of mobile parks after Andrew and Charlie. The only structures still standing say Palm Harbor in big letters on them. Framed, of course. It was put here after Charlie so is not yet tested.

A poorly built block home is far less safe than a well built frame home. I saw lots and lots of gutted examples of this after Andrew and Charlie.

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3 hours ago, RKoch said:

Right now in Florida, it's easier to buy beer or a gun than to buy gas or bottled water....

OMG, who is gong o reao thebenifitw this time,,

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4 hours ago, vjm said:

Just made it to Orlando from West Palm. Usually a three hour drive, but was seven this time. One of the huge plazas was out of gas, and lines were easily a hundred cars. Indintown was packed solid with boats on the hard. A lot of masts still up. Praying my roof stays on.

Question??  every mass exodus has taken place on the outbound road.  Why not jump the shark and go to the other oncoming lane?? 

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4 hours ago, RKoch said:

Shit just got real. Jim Cantore  arrived just now Tampa airport.

 

 

image.jpg

With a smile on his face too? 

Touque in S Florida ? Maybe he is confused with a snowmageddon event?

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15 minutes ago, vibroman said:

Touque in S Florida ? Maybe he is confused with a snowmageddon event?

I can relate. Airports and airplanes are generally too cold for me.

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Longer range forecast has another one forming off 'Verde with possibly another a few days after that...  

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My heart is out for all that may be in harm's way.  If you unfortunately end up in a rebuild phase, I have nailers and tools that would be useful and my middling skills.  I also drive a small pickup that can be useful.  Please don't hesitate to ask for help, I can be there in about 30hrs from your call.   

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11 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

My heart is out for all that may be in harm's way.  If you unfortunately end up in a rebuild phase, I have nailers and tools that would be useful and my middling skills.  I also drive a small pickup that can be useful.  Please don't hesitate to ask for help, I can be there in about 30hrs from your call.   

This is a kind offer. Most people respond this way. I received many such offers after the hurricanes that have affected me.

The thing is, you don't invite someone into a disaster area.

I didn't hear from my best friend after Charlie. I didn't call him either. Instead, he appeared with gas, tools, ice, tarps, and I don't remember what else. Oh, and supplies to camp out for a week without imposing on our hospitality if necessary.

Usually, only property and business owners are allowed into the areas that most need help. There seems to be an unwritten exception for hickup trucks loaded with the right kinds of things.

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Are there any videos showing how those big catamarans are  flipping over and flying hundreds of meters? I would love to witness the strength of the wind from that angle.

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My God... those yacht photos.

Most of my family are in Cape Coral and Ft. Myers. I asked if they were evacuating and the response was that the highways are jammed and fuel stations are running out. They'd rather hunker down in their homes than be stranded on the highway or in some crappy hotel in the hurricane's path. Their homes are well built and survived Charlie just fine, so...

I'm prepared to take time off work to go down and help patch things back up if necessary. This f'ing sucks.

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51 minutes ago, JMore said:

Found these on Facebook. Marina do Sol in SXB....

IMG_0653.JPG

IMG_0656.JPG

IMG_0657.JPG

IMG_0658.JPG

$

That big $$$$ black motor yacht, under the fancy paint, seems like a big bondo job to fair it. Floating McMansion? (and yes, this is inane given the issues I know)

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6 minutes ago, Ajax said:

My God... those yacht photos.

Most of my family are in Cape Coral and Ft. Myers. I asked if they were evacuating and the response was that the highways are jammed and fuel stations are running out. They'd rather hunker down in their homes than be stranded on the highway or in some crappy hotel in the hurricane's path. Their homes are well built and survived Charlie just fine, so...

I'm prepared to take time off work to go down and help patch things back up if necessary. This f'ing sucks.

My friends just moved to Punta Gorda, I need to check on them. I think I might stay too at this point, it looks like they are not going to get the worst of the wind *so far*. That shit can change fast though.

* what year was this Charlie? We were caught out by a hurricane Charlie back in the 80s and those feeder band things are pretty intense when they hit. Ripped my main right off the mast even with three reefs in :o

 

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1 minute ago, kent_island_sailor said:

My friends just moved to Punta Gorda, I need to check on them. I think I might stay too at this point, it looks like they are not going to get the worst of the wind *so far*. That shit can change fast though.

* what year was this Charlie? We were caught out by a hurricane Charlie back in the 80s and those feeder band things are pretty intense when they hit. Ripped my main right off the mast even with three reefs in :o

 

Charley was in '04.

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7 hours ago, acadian said:

Otter Creek, Hurricane Hole, Coral Bay, St. John.

The big cat is KEKOA, local day charter boat. NPS hurricane chain boat list: https://www.nps.gov/vicr/learn/management/upload/Hurricane-Hole-Spreadsheet-updated-2017Names-only.pdf

I was considering putting in for a spot and staying over the summer this year.

3745526.jpg

Kekoa is a class operation.  Hopefully they can repair her.

Boat already has a history of surviving a major storm when she was shipped from the states.

http://onislandtimes.com/spotlight-on-kekoa-sailing-expeditions/

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1 hour ago, JMore said:

Found these on Facebook. Marina do Sol in SXB....

(pictures of big yachts)

Can't understand why those big yachts didn't hightail it out of dodge before the storm since most of them probably have a permanent crew.

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1 minute ago, Marty6 said:

Can't understand why those big yachts didn't hightail it out of dodge before the storm since most of them probably have a permanent crew.

Idiots or insurance $$$ collectors :rolleyes:

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Just now, kent_island_sailor said:

Idiots or insurance $$$ collectors :rolleyes:

Idiots and insurance with partial damage i get :wacko:. But don't know about insurance with a total loss .

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Just talked with my GF, she has a brother in Miami (about 6 miles NW) who despite his family's encouragement has decided to hunker down.  Depending on where the eye tracks, my simple mind is that he might be committing suicide.  Am I overreacting, I want his two daughters to get out (16, 17).  When the time comes, I've encouraged my GF to tell the nieces to call 911 and claim they need out.  I do get it, I would have problems leaving my space but logic is logic.  We are not there yet but when it becomes obvious, I hope everyone makes the right decision.  

I think Harvey will save many lives in Florida.  

PS  I can handle a family of 5 in MI if you want to make the hike.  30 days.    

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3 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Just talked with my GF, she has a brother in Miami (about 6 miles NW) who despite his family's encouragement has decided to hunker down.  Depending on where the eye tracks, my simple mind is that he might be committing suicide.  Am I overreacting, I want his two daughters to get out (16, 17).  When the time comes, I've encouraged my GF to tell the nieces to call 911 and claim they need out.  I do get it, I would have problems leaving my space but logic is logic.  We are not there yet but when it becomes obvious, I hope everyone makes the right decision.  

I think Harvey will save many lives in Florida.  

PS  I can handle a family of 5 in MI if you want to make the hike.  30 days.    

It's too late to leave. The time has come and gone.

6 mi NW will probably not flood. They could wind up very scared in an interior closet or bathroom but will almost certainly survive. Tell them to find a way to waterproof things money can't replace and put them in a place that's unlikely to blow away or flood. People are busy protecting expensive stuff like TV's now. After the storm, they'll regret protecting the TV and losing all those old photos.

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Thanks Tom, 

It will be passed on.  I am pissed as the 16, 17 would have come to see their Aunt in MI for a week.  

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Posted (edited)

18 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Just talked with my GF, she has a brother in Miami (about 6 miles NW) who despite his family's encouragement has decided to hunker down.  Depending on where the eye tracks, my simple mind is that he might be committing suicide.  Am I overreacting, I want his two daughters to get out (16, 17).  When the time comes, I've encouraged my GF to tell the nieces to call 911 and claim they need out.  I do get it, I would have problems leaving my space but logic is logic.  We are not there yet but when it becomes obvious, I hope everyone makes the right decision.  

I think Harvey will save many lives in Florida.  

PS  I can handle a family of 5 in MI if you want to make the hike.  30 days.    

I lived in Miami for a few years and have many friends there. All but one (whose house is block with modern storm shutters and a concrete roof on high ground) left. At this point it is probably too late to leave. Between traffic and fuel shortages, it is probably now safer to find good shelter and hunker indoors than risk being stranded in your car. My friends all boarded up and got the hell out last weekend as soon as models started looking like a Miami landfall was in the cards. But then they are all scientists so they tend to pay attention to the models.

also, the local authorities have advised that due to the danger associated with this storm, 911 will not be able to dispatch for simple evacuations. Calling cause they need to get out is probably not good advice at this point. 911 will prioritize medical emergencies.

Edited by ajbram

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Pay cautious attention to models. When I left here before Charley ( a few hours before Charley) the models were still saying somewhere 30-60 miles north. I'm glad I did not believe them.

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6 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Thanks Tom, 

It will be passed on.  I am pissed as the 16, 17 would have come to see their Aunt in MI for a week.  

Cal, where in Miami are they located. Depending where 6mi NW is, it could be in a low area.

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8 minutes ago, ajbram said:

I lived in Miami for a few years and have many friends there. All but one (whose house is block with modern storm shutters and a concrete roof on high ground) left. At this point it is probably too late to leave. Between traffic and fuel shortages, it is probably now safer to find good shelter and hunker indoors than risk being stranded in your car. My friends all boarded up and got the hell out last weekend as soon as models started looking like a Miami landfall was in the cards. But then they are all scientists so they tend to pay attention to the models.

That last sentence is key...they pay attention to the models and understand the predictions.  Having been through several hurricanes while living in Florida, it's no fun and people underestimate the hardship for weeks following the event.  We had no power for almost three weeks following Wilma, and in a high rise will all electric appliances that's miserable. We had a two burner Coleman camp stove and enough fuel to heat one meal (can of stew/chili/soup) per day. Not a lot of fun even when the structure stays intact.

 

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One motivation in Florida was always that authorities would not let you back in for days or weeks even, so all the people that stayed get free pickings of all your stuff.

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Given the level of destruction, it's surprising to me that more lives were not lost.  OTOH, some will not be discovered until days later, probably.....

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Unsurprisingly, "girl in bikini goes sailing" couple had their boat sink. It seems it made it through the first half of the eye wall but then got holed by another boat and sank at the dock during round two.

In keeping with their MO they have set up a gofundme page to raise $50K to raise their boat and their spirits. Suffice to say some of the comments over there are somewhat caustic about their motivations and level of self interest in light of the suffering of the locals around them who don't enjoy their same life options. Seems the hurricane isn't so fun anymore.

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52 minutes ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

Pay cautious attention to models. When I left here before Charley ( a few hours before Charley) the models were still saying somewhere 30-60 miles north. I'm glad I did not believe them.

42 minutes ago, sailronin said:

That last sentence is key...they pay attention to the models and understand the predictions.

There is some combination of these at play. Same as weather forecasts for non-hurricane systems. They are still models, and as such are never 100% accurate, and there is always a margin of uncertainty when it comes to weather tracks. That being said, understanding the predictions and understanding the science behind the predictions allows you to think critically about the model predictions and make an informed decision about your best course of action. I've been in Miami for a few storms when the predictions were wrong, and some when the predictions were right. In this case, the sheer size of the storm and the fact that the Euro model that has historically done a pretty good job of predicting tracks of Cape Verde storms putting this one right on Miami would make me tend to believe it. 

Cautious attention yes. But understanding the principles and not misconstruing "model uncertainty" as "it's not exactly right so it will be wrong" is what saves lives.

 

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4 hours ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

Neighbor texted last night, worried because his house is frame, not block.

When it's a civilized hour, I'll text back reminding him that my 1930's built frame house was moved here from across the river in the 1980's and sustained no damage in Charlie. And that was with 1970's awning windows. Now it has modern windows. Except for a big picture window that was downwind in Charlie but might be upwind this time.

Our bigger house is a Palm Harbor modular. Go by their showroom sometime. Great pics of mobile parks after Andrew and Charlie. The only structures still standing say Palm Harbor in big letters on them. Framed, of course. It was put here after Charlie so is not yet tested.

A poorly built block home is far less safe than a well built frame home. I saw lots and lots of gutted examples of this after Andrew and Charlie.

Yea, construction varies widely. Modern wood is like balsa.. Older houses pretty solid. My rafters are old Southern Yellow Pine. They harden with age and become like steel. I'd have to pre-drill a hole to put a nail in. 

Current track up the middle of peninsula will weaken it a lot. On the coast here, I think we'll only be seeing minimal hurricane winds, 60 or so. My sister is right under the track, near Cleremont. 

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41 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Hey - anyone got any news on Grand Turk?

There's a bit in The NY Times this morning -

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/world/americas/hurricane-irma-caribbean.html?_r=0

 

Conditions are deteriorating in Turks and Caicos.

Hurricane Irma slammed into Grand Turk on Thursday evening, ripping off dozens of residential roofs, flooding streets, snapping utility poles and causing an island-wide blackout. It also damaged the roof of the hospital in Cockburn Town, the capital of Turks and Caicos, a British overseas territory.

Providenciales, the most populous of the Turks and Caicos’s 40 islands, was experiencing howling winds, rough seas and steady rain. Hurricane shelters across the island were full. A government spokesman, Zhavago Jolly, said he had not received any reports of fatalities or injuries.

Earlier in the day, Virginia Clerveaux, the director of the Disaster Management Department, warned that emergency workers would “not be able to provide relief services during this time until further notice.”

 

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2 minutes ago, ajbram said:

There is some combination of these at play. Same as weather forecasts for non-hurricane systems. They are still models, and as such are never 100% accurate, and there is always a margin of uncertainty when it comes to weather tracks. That being said, understanding the predictions and understanding the science behind the predictions allows you to think critically about the model predictions and make an informed decision about your best course of action. I've been in Miami for a few storms when the predictions were wrong, and some when the predictions were right. In this case, the sheer size of the storm and the fact that the Euro model that has historically done a pretty good job of predicting tracks of Cape Verde storms putting this one right on Miami would make me tend to believe it. 

Cautious attention yes. But understanding the principles and not misconstruing "model uncertainty" as "it's not exactly right so it will be wrong" is what saves lives.

 

Yea, pretty sure it's going to hit close to Miami. 

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58 minutes ago, ajbram said:

Cal, where in Miami are they located. Depending where 6mi NW is, it could be in a low area.

7000 NW, 9th St

 

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5 minutes ago, blunted said:

Unsurprisingly, "girl in bikini goes sailing" couple had their boat sink. It seems it made it through the first half of the eye wall but then got holed by another boat and sank at the dock during round two.

In keeping with their MO they have set up a gofundme page to raise $50K to raise their boat and their spirits. Suffice to say some of the comments over there are somewhat caustic about their motivations and level of self interest in light of the suffering of the locals around them who don't enjoy their same life options. Seems the hurricane isn't so fun anymore.

Yea, they seem pretty stupid. As near as I can tell, they were to the south, and sailed up there before the storm. WTF?

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2 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

7000 NW, 9th St

 

They're probably far enough inland to avoid the worst of the storm surge there.  Not high ground by any means though. Thankfully this storm isn't as rainy as Harvey.

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Black Friday in Sint Maarten, the Caribbean way !

 

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19 hours ago, Canal Bottom said:

At Nanny Cay Tortola all the boats on the hard were either knock down or the rigs knocked out.  On option they offered was sand screws to secure the boats upright. Those that paid for that option lost their rigs? Rigs blown out of cruising boats? 

I'd be surprised if the rigs were blown out.  I think its more likely that masts were smashing into each other as the boats severely pitched and rolled.  Or, flying debris took out a stay or shroud. 

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21 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Yea, they seem pretty stupid. As near as I can tell, they were to the south, and sailed up there before the storm. WTF?

Yeah that seems to be the consensus is that they were in the windward islands a week or two ago and could have easily stayed there. It seems they thought it would be fun to go check out the hurricane. Then they had engine issues so they chose to not sail out of its way. Then for good measure they imported their buddy from Atlanta just to check out the hurricane, maybe for shits and giggles.

Either way seems like a slow motion train wreck of cascading bad decisions that could have been averted easily enough. I suspect now they will really start to endure the hardship of their decision trail such as not having food, power, local connections, lord knows what else. Could be a while before they get off that island never mind rescue their soggy dream from the bottom of the bay.

I predict the couple will disintegrate within 4 months now she no longer has her amusement park ride to play on full time. The novelty will wear off very quickly after bumping up against reality rather hard.

Maybe not, stranger things have happened.

 

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Gang,

     Has anyone heard from Hodges Creek area?  I heard the road out there is gone so no comms.   I'm curious how CatCo, Festiva, and Dream Yacht Charter fleets held out.

-Geoff

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3 minutes ago, blunted said:

Yeah that seems to be the consensus is that they were in the windward islands a week or two ago and could have easily stayed there. It seems they thought it would be fun to go check out the hurricane. Then they had engine issues so they chose to not sail out of its way. Then for good measure they imported their buddy from Atlanta just to check out the hurricane, maybe for shits and giggles.

Either way seems like a slow motion train wreck of cascading bad decisions that could have been averted easily enough. I suspect now they will really start to endure the hardship of their decision trail such as not having food, power, local connections, lord knows what else. Could be a while before they get off that island never mind rescue their soggy dream from the bottom of the bay.

I predict the couple will disintegrate within 4 months now she no longer has her amusement park ride to play on full time. The novelty will wear off very quickly after bumping up against reality rather hard.

Maybe not, stranger things have happened.

 

Choosing to sail north during hurricane season was their first mistake. Then they piled on mistake after mistake. 

Boat sank, they started a GoFundMe page to raise it. They want $50K, but don't provide any details. I doubt that's than accurate estimate, they're probably just pulling a number out of their butt. Or maybe that's what they paid, and just want their investment back and are going to abandon the boat, who knows.

https://www.gofundme.com/salvaging-sailing-mischief

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3 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Choosing to sail north during hurricane season was their first mistake. Then they piled on mistake after mistake. 

Boat sank, they started a GoFundMe page to raise it. They want $50K, but don't provide any details. I doubt that's than accurate estimate, they're probably just pulling a number out of their butt. Or maybe that's what they paid, and just want their investment back and are going to abandon the boat, who knows.

https://www.gofundme.com/salvaging-sailing-mischief

The hubris to ask for money for their boat (when they have homes they could return to) at a time when peoples' entire lives have been devastated is mind blowing.

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RKoch, NautiGirl,

     Yea and I bet they though they could use their youtube channel to pay off their $75,000 in liberal arts college loans too.

-Geoff

 

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1 minute ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Well they have $400 so far :rolleyes:

That's enough to buy 200,000 ping pong balls and raise the boat!

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1 minute ago, NautiGirl said:

The hubris to ask for money for their boat (when they have homes they could return to) at a time when peoples' entire lives have been devastated is mind blowing.

Yep. Donations to relief for the locals are more appropriate than to a couple of clueless self-centered kids.

i don't think they even realize how much work and money will be required to salvage, repair, and refit the boat. I think they just are wanting cash, and are going to walk away from it.

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8 minutes ago, NautiGirl said:

The hubris to ask for money for their boat (when they have homes they could return to) at a time when peoples' entire lives have been devastated is mind blowing.

Disgusting.... It would be nice if their GoFundMe page could be hijacked and proceeds donated to relief for those who will be left with nothing.

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When Floridians say 'shelter in place', this is what we're talking about:

 

image.jpg

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11 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Yep. Donations to relief for the locals are more appropriate than to a couple of clueless self-centered kids.

i don't think they even realize how much work and money will be required to salvage, repair, and refit the boat. I think they just are wanting cash, and are going to walk away from it.

The walking away with cash in hand seems the most likely plan if they really raise $50k. A quick yacht world search for a 1978 37ft CSY suggest they could replace the boat and put a big chunk of cash in their pocket.

Not the first priority for huriccane relief funds.

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22 hours ago, TimFordi550#87 said:

What happened to the lady's shed, the woman who was "overlooking Magens Bay"...did that shed survive?   I saw the doors leave the structure and the thing distorting pretty wickedly. Then I had to step away from the computer.

 If that shed survived, I want one.  That was one helluva a shed.  

Just curious. 

The shed has ceased to exist https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5a6_1504818519

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1 hour ago, RKoch said:

Yea, construction varies widely. Modern wood is like balsa.. Older houses pretty solid. My rafters are old Southern Yellow Pine. They harden with age and become like steel. I'd have to pre-drill a hole to put a nail in. 

Current track up the middle of peninsula will weaken it a lot. On the coast here, I think we'll only be seeing minimal hurricane winds, 60 or so. My sister is right under the track, near Cleremont. 

I truly hope you are right, but your own post #687 shows it might not be the case.

I get from work a forecast from a private weather company which is very detailed. The company I work for has people working offshore; this is why they subscribed to that service. The latest report from this morning states:

"Irma is predicted to weaken much more slowly than would be typical for a landfalling hurricane. This is due to the fact that the Florida Peninsula is relatively small compared to Irma's size. Because of this, Irma may produce hurricane-force winds all the way north to the Georgia border"

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14 minutes ago, ajbram said:

Disgusting.... It would be nice if their GoFundMe page could be hijacked and proceeds donated to relief for those who will be left with nothing.

Some critical voices on there too !

Will get deleted soon...

 

Paul Francis

16 hours ago

So you had enough warning to move out of the hurricane path and you chose not to do so. Now you want us to buy you a new boat? How about you two go back to the real world, get jobs and earn the money yourselves. If you had to pay for it out of pocket, I bet it would end up being a valuable lesson on how to make responsible decisions.

Stuart Ward

53 mins ago

So Lindsay Hamilton, ask yourself these two quetions: 1. Why were they in the upper Caribbean during prime Hurricane season when they were in the safety of Grenada less than a month ago? 2. Why should they be asking for FREE money to buy a new boat when so many people do not even have a roof over their heads due to IRMA? Their folly needs to be a life lesson, move on, go to work, save and then get a new boat. BTW I see my previous comment was deleted. Goes to show you how "transparent" they are. Good day and I hope they can get back to the US soon.

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12 minutes ago, Laurent said:

I truly hope you are right, but your own post #687 shows it might not be the case.

I get from work a forecast from a private weather company which is very detailed. The company I work for has people working offshore; this is why they subscribed to that service. The latest report from this morning states:

"Irma is predicted to weaken much more slowly than would be typical for a landfalling hurricane. This is due to the fact that the Florida Peninsula is relatively small compared to Irma's size. Because of this, Irma may produce hurricane-force winds all the way north to the Georgia border"

Hurricane force winds are only 64kn and up. It will hit Miami as a Cat 3 or minimal 4, and weaken greatly as it travels several hundred miles over land. Current track has the storm passing to my east at about 100 kn...strong Cat 2... I'll only see 50-60. We won't have much storm surge on this side...maybe 2-3' guessing. Wind will be offshore for most of the storm. 

East coast is going to catch the brunt of it...maybe 7-9' surge. Tornados will be the biggest hazard for them.

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2 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

One motivation in Florida was always that authorities would not let you back in for days or weeks even, so all the people that stayed get free pickings of all your stuff.

That's one other reason (albeit way down the list) why my family is staying.

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3 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

That big $$$$ black motor yacht, under the fancy paint, seems like a big bondo job to fair it. Floating McMansion? (and yes, this is inane given the issues I know)

This may be a stupid question but why didn't the big (Captained) motor yachts skip town. They had days of warning and can cruise at speeds fast enough to get them south of the storm...

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5 minutes ago, stayoutofthemiddle said:

This may be a stupid question but why didn't the big (Captained) motor yachts skip town. They had days of warning and can cruise at speeds fast enough to get them south of the storm...

That's a good question. IDK why boats with the speed and range to get south didn't do so. 

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1 hour ago, Passport111 said:

I'd be surprised if the rigs were blown out.  I think its more likely that masts were smashing into each other as the boats severely pitched and rolled.  Or, flying debris took out a stay or shroud. 

I've seen a number of harbor photos/videos.  While many boats didn't stay at their moorings (piled up, ashore, sunk, etc.), most that did stay on their moorings lost their masts.  I was wondering, why?

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1 minute ago, Glenn McCarthy said:

I've seen a number of harbor photos/videos.  While many boats didn't stay at their moorings (piled up, ashore, sunk, etc.), most that did stay on their moorings lost their masts.  I was wondering, why?

I'd guess because the main sails were still zipped up in the sail bag and the jib was still furled on the furler.  Once the wind gets in there and the sails start leaking out the pressure builds and yanks the mast off.  That's just a guess though.

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1 minute ago, Geoff Strebel said:

I'd guess because the main sails were still zipped up in the sail bag and the jib was still furled on the furler.  Once the wind gets in there and the sails start leaking out the pressure builds and yanks the mast off.  That's just a guess though.

I didn't see any furlers left up. 

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3 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

That big $$$$ black motor yacht, under the fancy paint, seems like a big bondo job to fair it. Floating McMansion? (and yes, this is inane given the issues I know)

 

The big black boat was Sierra Romeo. Heard from a friend who spoke to the owner today. No idea why they did not bug out. Recently repainted.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:284116/mmsi:248129000/imo:8738744/vessel:SIERRA_ROMEO

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6 hours ago, shaggy said:

Question??  every mass exodus has taken place on the outbound road.  Why not jump the shark and go to the other oncoming lane?? 

There is still oncoming traffic, particularly a lot of fuel and supply trucks. They are allowing people to drive on the shoulders now, turning the two lane turnpike into a four lane road. 

Once they stop bringing in supplies they will do contraflow for awhile to try and clear as many people as possible. The governor stated this morning that they are waiting on that because they need supplies, especially gas, and emergency vehicle access. 

The two biggest creators of stopped traffic yersterday were accidents and lines at the service plazas backing up onto the traffic lanes. People are exhausted and stressed so accidents are more likely. Anything folks can do not to create more traffic havoc is a pretty good idea.

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Here's news from Hodges Creek, The Catamaran Comany.  They got wiped out too but their staff is safe!

Press Release: Hurricane Irma - Charter Fleet -Tortola, BVI
TO ALL OUR CHARTER OWNERS, GUESTS AND STAFF

Firstly, please accept my apology for the delay in getting you all information as to what is going on in the BVI with regards to your boats, the base and our staff. Of primary importance to us during this entire Hurricane was the safety and security of our staff. I made the decision to hold off sending out this release in the hope that we could announce that all of our staff were safe and accounted for and until 10 minutes ago, 2 days after impact, we had not been able to establish whether or not Marianne, Didier and their family were safe and unharmed. I am now very happy to report that they are all safe. I do not have many details about what they went through but she did say that it was the worst experience of her life.

As a group, our company and staff has been through many hurricanes before so we have learned to try to err on the side of caution and not add to the rumor mill and speculation as in the past this type of speculation has taken valuable resources and redirected them to where they were not best utilized. However in this case, from the photos and video we are now receiving, it would appear that it would have been hard to over-exaggerate the impact, damage and destruction caused by Hurricane Irma. Despite all of our combined experience as far back as Hurricane Hugo in 1989, we have simply never seen anything like this in our lifetime.

From the photos and videos we have received it is obvious that despite our team’s best efforts, the vast majority of Catamaran Charters BVI fleet has been sunk or severely damaged. We cannot however be specific about individual damage to individual vessels but will make available all the relevant photos we have. At this time however, we have still not been able to re-establish reliable contact with any of our staff on the island. In fact, we have not been able to establish contact with anyone on the island other than some intermittent tweets and texts. In every other hurricane we have experienced, we witnessed damage to an area of an island, part of a fleet or one or 2 specific harbors but simply nothing like this devastation. In fact, in our 30 year history we have sustained wind and storm damages to numerous cats but have never actually lost a catamaran in any hurricane. We can no longer say that. From the reports from other charter companies it appears that the vast majority of the fleets have been severely damaged or totally destroyed and it is now obvious that no amount of preparation could have prevented this.

We will continue to try to get you as much information as we can but unfortunately most of the roads are totally impassable with many boats blocking them totally. In some cases there are numerous boats intertwined on the roadway and Tortola does not have many different ways of getting from one end of the island to the other. We will post all the information as we receive it to our website and facebook account and try to answer any of your questions that we can. we are not trying to discourage you from asking questions as you are our partners in this business but please try to remain patient as some answers we simply do not have at this time.

I wish I had better news to deliver but today is the first day we start to rebuild.

All my best,

Hugh Murray
PRESIDENT
The Catamaran Company

 

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So sad about all of the destruction. Luckily it seems like many preventative measures saved lives.

Any models show what the impact is expected to be once IRMA moves OUT of florida?

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Looks like it might be the end for the plywood and sawhorse table that first appeared in the HotRod thread. It can't be moved intact. It can't stay where it is. The storm will move it if I don't. Oh well, end of an experiment. I'll try to remember to take a few pics.

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50 minutes ago, Lono said:

Holy shit! Why? worse construction? Location on just the right hillside? So many nights anchored right there... Wow.

155 knts. Eye passed over, so multiple directions. 

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11 hours ago, RKoch said:

The early shots are fake or not Irma. The woman talking and filming about 2:40 is real...that's on St Martin. Didn't watch after that.

edit: just verified the exploding power transformer before 2:40 was Irma in Puerto Rico. 

That building falling over turns out to be from flooding in Tibet or someplace. Pisses me off to see people doing that sort of 'Fake News' attribution in a case of human loss like this. There is another clip of trucks in Barbuda still driving around as roofing tin flies overhead and then trees just get blown away at what looks like warp speed. Good warning for taking shelter and not getting caught out when the shit hits the fan but I think it has been proven that that clip was from a hurricane in Bocas Del Toro a few years ago. I won't bother to link that clip but you have probably already seen it.

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3 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

One motivation in Florida was always that authorities would not let you back in for days or weeks even, so all the people that stayed get free pickings of all your stuff.

Looters should be shot on sight - like the good old days.

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43 minutes ago, Geoff Strebel said:

Here's news from Hodges Creek, The Catamaran Comany.  They got wiped out too but their staff is safe!

Press Release: Hurricane Irma - Charter Fleet -Tortola, BVI
TO ALL OUR CHARTER OWNERS, GUESTS AND STAFF

Firstly, please accept my apology for the delay in getting you all information as to what is going on in the BVI with regards to your boats, the base and our staff. Of primary importance to us during this entire Hurricane was the safety and security of our staff. I made the decision to hold off sending out this release in the hope that we could announce that all of our staff were safe and accounted for and until 10 minutes ago, 2 days after impact, we had not been able to establish whether or not Marianne, Didier and their family were safe and unharmed. I am now very happy to report that they are all safe. I do not have many details about what they went through but she did say that it was the worst experience of her life.

As a group, our company and staff has been through many hurricanes before so we have learned to try to err on the side of caution and not add to the rumor mill and speculation as in the past this type of speculation has taken valuable resources and redirected them to where they were not best utilized. However in this case, from the photos and video we are now receiving, it would appear that it would have been hard to over-exaggerate the impact, damage and destruction caused by Hurricane Irma. Despite all of our combined experience as far back as Hurricane Hugo in 1989, we have simply never seen anything like this in our lifetime.

From the photos and videos we have received it is obvious that despite our team’s best efforts, the vast majority of Catamaran Charters BVI fleet has been sunk or severely damaged. We cannot however be specific about individual damage to individual vessels but will make available all the relevant photos we have. At this time however, we have still not been able to re-establish reliable contact with any of our staff on the island. In fact, we have not been able to establish contact with anyone on the island other than some intermittent tweets and texts. In every other hurricane we have experienced, we witnessed damage to an area of an island, part of a fleet or one or 2 specific harbors but simply nothing like this devastation. In fact, in our 30 year history we have sustained wind and storm damages to numerous cats but have never actually lost a catamaran in any hurricane. We can no longer say that. From the reports from other charter companies it appears that the vast majority of the fleets have been severely damaged or totally destroyed and it is now obvious that no amount of preparation could have prevented this.

We will continue to try to get you as much information as we can but unfortunately most of the roads are totally impassable with many boats blocking them totally. In some cases there are numerous boats intertwined on the roadway and Tortola does not have many different ways of getting from one end of the island to the other. We will post all the information as we receive it to our website and facebook account and try to answer any of your questions that we can. we are not trying to discourage you from asking questions as you are our partners in this business but please try to remain patient as some answers we simply do not have at this time.

I wish I had better news to deliver but today is the first day we start to rebuild.

All my best,

Hugh Murray
PRESIDENT
The Catamaran Company

 

Well put Hugh and good that you waited for confirmation on the status of your staff there. That sort of forethought goes a long way at times like this. Best wishes and hopes for a full recovery for your company and staff.

    I barely survived Hugo in Culebra and the similarities and memories are disturbing for me. 

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KMIA seems full of people with no way to leave. Should the Air Force be running a few C5s down there?

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11 hours ago, acadian said:

The upper right boat is interesting. The bottom half of the mast is still there with the boom, whereas the top half is gone. even if she collided with another boat drifting past, i would expect to see a buckled mess of mast and rigging.If she lost the forestay and all that first, you would still have a mast buckled but somewhat attached to the stays. Her mast and rigging seems to be cut by a razor. The force of the wind must be such that the windage of the mast rips it of clean where it is buckled together with all the rigging. Truly amazing. Any other ideas as to how this had happened? 

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1 hour ago, Glenn McCarthy said:

I've seen a number of harbor photos/videos.  While many boats didn't stay at their moorings (piled up, ashore, sunk, etc.), most that did stay on their moorings lost their masts.  I was wondering, why?

That's a good question, and one that I hope gets answered by a surveyor or NA in the aftermath. Somebody previously mentioned flying debris, and that is a real possibility. After Frances a few years ago, with the boat on the hard and otherwise mostly unscathed, there was a big, new dent 30' up my mast.

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6 minutes ago, mookiesurfs said:

That's a good question, and one that I hope gets answered by a surveyor or NA in the aftermath. Somebody previously mentioned flying debris, and that is a real possibility. There was a new, big dent 30' up my mast after Frances years ago.

a cow or horse or tree  hitting a mast at 180 mph  has the ability to take a mast down if hit above the first spreader

 

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