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Its shaping up to be a rough season for the East Coast. I have lived in a lot of places, but I would have trouble staying too long in an area with that kind of weather! Good luck guys and I am praying it just take s a big righty out into the middle of the Atlantic!

 

WL

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5 minutes ago, Sean said:

I haven't heard any mention in the MSM of Jose since Irma hit the US. Shiny object du jour. 

CNN said it was no threat to the East Coast about an hour ago :rolleyes: Also note Texas has issues too. I am wearing a FEMA shirt today and the waitress at dinner asked me why I was here and not in Florida............

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I take it there is a lot of uncertainty with Jose.  I heard the the European model shows it staying offshore while the US model has it hitting the east coast.  With Irma missing the initial targets and causing people to evacuate right into where the storm hit, maybe just nobody knows enough to say anything other than keep an eye on it.  Plus, there is this loop thing. Now how can they forecast how it will come out of the loop.  Apparently they can't.

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this site lets you run the GFS and EURO and a few other forecasting models.... your mileage may vary LOL

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091200&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=112

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4 hours ago, White Lightnin' said:

Its shaping up to be a rough season for the East Coast. I have lived in a lot of places, but I would have trouble staying too long in an area with that kind of weather! Good luck guys and I am praying it just take s a big righty out into the middle of the Atlantic!

 

WL

Earthquakes.

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9 hours ago, slap said:

Earthquakes.

Most earthquakes are not even noticed

A Cat 2 would whipe DAGO off the map

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^^^odd that. ECWMF is taking Jose closer to Bermuda than Florida this run. GFS, too. The official NHC track posted above (should update) is probably as good as anything. Hard to tell really. The models are looking unusually fragile with this one. It certainly could take a flier but, for the foreseeable future, it's most likely to be a fish storm.

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16 hours ago, Rule69 said:

^^^odd that. ECWMF is taking Jose closer to Bermuda than Florida this run. GFS, too. The official NHC track posted above (should update) is probably as good as anything. Hard to tell really. The models are looking unusually fragile with this one. It certainly could take a flier but, for the foreseeable future, it's most likely to be a fish storm.

 

Models have been all over the place with this one. Latest puts Jose uncomfortably close to the coast, but still a long way out. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Euro -

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017091300/ecmwf_uv850_vort_neus_11.png

 

GFS -

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091306/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_27.png

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UK Met today has it going north, rather than into Florida, and just sitting offshore for quite awhile. The loop exit point seems to be the controlling variable. 

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36 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

My guess - based on watching hurricanes for decades, is it will be way east of the USA. Could be wrong.

I hope you're right, but it's been trending a bit west.

Couple more systems with potential -

9-14%20Tropical%20outlook%207%20am.jpg

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For us it will be like winter come early with a NorEaster. Now all it takes is a little error and........:o

One of my more memorable sails was when Charlie (1980s version) was so sure to be yanking out east after Hatteras they had no warnings even on Saturday and Sunday it hooked back towards us.

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The Euro model has Jose doing a loopdeloop just offshore of Long Island, with 40+ knots of easterlies for three days. If that's what happens, we're going to get plenty of water piling up between the twin forks. Can't imagine what Sag Harbor will look like. We get high tides well over the docks in a run of the mill nor'easter. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=neus&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2017091500&fh=-84&xpos=0&ypos=0

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Feeling slightly better about this one. GFS has it sliding to the east a bit, enough to make a big difference.
With a caveat-  "
  • The average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are about 125 and 175 miles, respectively. 

12z on the left, 00z on the right -
 

IMG_4604.JPG

Edited by Sean

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Euro moved the track west last night. Could get rather sporty in a couple days around here. 

Sag Harbor is still packed with 100' plus yachts, if they don't bug out the docks could get tore up along with some very expensive toys. 

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Well, the TS watch is up from Cape Charles to P town.  Just went out to tie up the main and check on stuff.  I'm in a really protected spot  from anything other than Westerlies, so I'm not too concerned about Pearl.  I'll put the fish/lobster killer on an empty mooring in the lee of the Neck, hopefully way down harbor and hope for the best.

I'm sure the next two days will be busy hauling those who are not as fortunate, or who think it may be a little uglier than the forecasted gusts to 30.  As it turns out, I had two of my heaviest spars scheduled for tomorrow anyway.

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On 9/16/2017 at 10:56 AM, Sean said:
Feeling slightly better about this one. GFS has it sliding to the east a bit, enough to make a big difference.
With a caveat-  "
  • The average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are about 125 and 175 miles, respectively. 

12z on the left, 00z on the right -
 

IMG_4604.JPG

Looks like boobs.

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On 9/23/2017 at 11:17 PM, Rasputin22 said:

No way? This has got to be a bad joke. I'm going to work as a boat insurance adjuster after the last three weeks.

Sadly no.

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