GauchoGreg

Macif / Gabart / Jules Verne 2017-18

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So here's the record breaking question:

He's now 2,400 miles ahead of the record with 2,100 to go. Barring breakage it's almost guaranteed he's going to break the singlehanded record. Does he keep the pedal down, risk breakage, and try to beat the crewed record or does he back off and guarantee his place in history? 

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1 hour ago, Tropical Madness said:

ALmost there...

 

big question is  is how much was technology, how much was weather, how much was this champ sailor!

For weather, the total distance sailed vs Colville or Joyon's record setting runs will reveal a lot (but obviously not all) about how much the weather helped or hindered.

For technology, before Spindrift broke they were putting about 8-10% into Sodebo, so Macif can boast at absolute most an 8% edge over Sodebo due to technology, but most likely less.

For Gabart, he has averaged 27.4 knots through water thus far, Colville averaged 24.09kn. That is almost 14% faster average speed, with an average daily run of about 657NM. So at least 6% is for sure the sailor. But, consider that the solo 24hr distance record was 666.2NM up until 2014; Gabart has sailed around the world at an average speed that was the outright 24hr distance record setting pace up until 3 years ago. That is not weather or technology, that is an incredible display of sailing talent to extract such a huge percentage of the boat's potential performance without (thus far) overstepping the limits.

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10 minutes ago, jackolantern said:

So here's the record breaking question:

He's now 2,400 miles ahead of the record with 2,100 to go. Barring breakage it's almost guaranteed he's going to break the singlehanded record. Does he keep the pedal down, risk breakage, and try to beat the crewed record or does he back off and guarantee his place in history? 

Gabart cannot beat the crewed record anymore. Idec had shorter way home (east of Azores) with high speed last 3 days.

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what gabart is managing to achieve is nothing short of amazing, outstanding.

with a bit of luck he could have also beaten the outright/fully-crewed record (or can he still?)

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Not really, only ~2 days left on that clock. He would needs to double his VMG to 40 knots or so for that.

2200nm distance to the finish, ~2700nm taking the high into account, ~2500nm advantage.
Not bad at all. Looking at the old track he will finish as Thomas crossed the Equator.

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If he hadn't been so slow due to ice and bad weather after entering in the Indian ocean, he probably would have broken Idec's record.

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2 hours ago, svendson said:

For weather, the total distance sailed vs Colville or Joyon's record setting runs will reveal a lot (but obviously not all) about how much the weather helped or hindered.

For technology, before Spindrift broke they were putting about 8-10% into Sodebo, so Macif can boast at absolute most an 8% edge over Sodebo due to technology, but most likely less.

For Gabart, he has averaged 27.4 knots through water thus far, Colville averaged 24.09kn. That is almost 14% faster average speed, with an average daily run of about 657NM. So at least 6% is for sure the sailor. But, consider that the solo 24hr distance record was 666.2NM up until 2014; Gabart has sailed around the world at an average speed that was the outright 24hr distance record setting pace up until 3 years ago. That is not weather or technology, that is an incredible display of sailing talent to extract such a huge percentage of the boat's potential performance without (thus far) overstepping the limits.

Without technology they wouldn't be looking at satellite photos of clouds to point the boat to the best direction to get to right spot at the right time according to weather forecasts that are improving every year. Routing, land based routing, has improved also. Technological improvement is not only a boat that can go faster in the same conditions.

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729.9 nm in the last 24 hrs.  Not exactly slowing down to preserve the boat.  Hard to slow down a racehorse when it's headed home.

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talking about the weather he had and had before in the VG: Some Guys have all he Luck (Rod Steward)

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I believe although he got a great run with little no issues, It is him... he is a freakazoid...

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Whilst he might have been dealt a good hand at times he has managed that hand superbly and for that he should be applauded. I imagine it is pretty easy to not get out your bunk for that little bit of trim when you are half way round the world and heavily fatigued.

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I think this boats is a lot faster than Covilles - and also IDEC - Gabart is also till now lucky - no whales or containers or growlers...  and he is really good -and young - all contributes so he now will be maybe just a day after the outright crewed record and shave a week off the single-record.

Wonder about crewed vs singlehanded - these boats are so clever that they can almost go around without crew - so the advantage of having a full crew is not as big as it was - and the single handers get to be lighter.

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Gabart will shave another day rounding Azores High. 2 days ago in his 37th day, he was almost in the same spot that Coville in the 43th; at this pace, in 21 hours he'll be 7 days ahead with 1300 nm to go.

The only problem: in 2 days there will be a no-wind area in front of him, extending from the latitude of North of Spain coast to Ireland. Or so it seems.

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1 hour ago, TheDragon said:

Latest Windy run suggests he might just catch a bridge of breeze across that high pressure ridge on the way home.

Yep keeping an eye on that.

Awesome boat and awesome performance from Gabart and Team.

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Given that he's got the single handed record in hand and doesn't have a shot at crewed, it's good that there isn't some bad ass north atlantic storm to deal with.   Should have a fairly easy cruise home from here.  Keep a sharp lookout, most likely event that would ruin things is hard floaty things.

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7 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Latest Windy run suggests he might just catch a bridge of breeze across that high pressure ridge on the way home.

It would so suck to be becalmed at this point in his attempt. Let's hope the high doesn't materialize or that he does indeed skirt around it.

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Becalmed? Doing 28 kts!

Rather, somebody should tell him there's Ilha das Flores right in front - not another Vestas, hopefully ...

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I thought North rather than South because South produces an upwind portion in heavy air until at least the Bay of Biscay whereas North might be more conducive to boat preservation.

As the great philosopher Lawrence Peter Berra once said, “It ain’t over until it’s over.”

Coville and Joyon last year and now this lap have exhausted my vocabulary when it comes to adjectives and superlatives. 

(I thought Joyon’s solo record was close to unassailable – like Bob Beamon’s long jump or the 56 game hitting streak … this is just other worldly)   

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In the last video, it is asked to each member of the preparation team first if he is going to break the record and then in how many days... You have from the very conservative to the optimistic.

But the word from François Gabart himself on radio call is around 45 days, if everything goes well....

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That's rather pessimistic by Gabart, but that high pressure ridge is not looking good now, and ducking under it will be hard given he has to finally gybe to port soon to get back into the breeze and hence lose VMG, not to mention miss some hard bits in front of him.

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7 hours ago, Laurent said:

In the last video, it is asked to each member of the preparation team first if he is going to break the record and then in how many days... You have from the very conservative to the optimistic.

But the word from François Gabart himself on radio call is around 45 days, if everything goes well....

I guess he IS pessimistic on radio scheds (fingers crossed ;)) but his team and officials don't look so

Just on local FB

37 min ·
 
25348482_1642532235811396_58656525949674
DÉC17
dim 9:00 · Quai du Commandant Malbert, 29200 Brest, France
1 280 personnes intéressées
That's Sunday morning, which would mean crossing line late Saturday (FR) at the latest.
 

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Upside Down. Upside Down. 

A passenger boat was diverted by the Chilean MRCC this morning to rescue Yves le Blevec, always safe inside his boat. It should be on area in the afternoon.

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5 hours ago, SCANAS said:

Upside Down. Upside Down. 

A passenger boat was diverted by the Chilean MRCC this morning to rescue Yves le Blevec, always safe inside his boat. It should be on area in the afternoon.

Yves le Blevec has been recued by the Chilean Navy  :rolleyes:

 

LeBlevec.jpg

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5 hours ago, SCANAS said:

Upside Down. Upside Down. 

A passenger boat was diverted by the Chilean MRCC this morning to rescue Yves le Blevec, always safe inside his boat. It should be on area in the afternoon.

Macif is right side up and Gabart and the boat are fine.  Its Team Actual that capsized at the horn.  Appears one of the port beams failed which is rather surprising even given the conditions.  I believe similar designed boats have failed in similar fashion/conditions so assumed they would have all over that.  There is an SA thread on it here:

or here:

 

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yl75, indeed playing windyty forward now suggests he will have to go above that pesky high dropping down in front of him. What a frustrating business for Gabart, but a Sunday arrival would be sweet.

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Latest forecast looks like he'll chase that high right off the ocean at about 20 knots all the way to the finish.  Nice easy run to the line.

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14 hours ago, Xlot said:

If he does arrive on Sunday - can you imagine the crowds?

 

If he finishes at the Lizard end of the line will the crowd be there?

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Last 1000 miles and a serious slowdown to 4 knots, as expected according their twitter.
30 minutes ago:
Dernier obstacle pour le #trimaranMACIF : franchir cette fameuse dorsale positionnée sur sa route, avant de rejoindre Ouessant

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6 hours ago, Ncik said:

If he finishes at the Lizard end of the line will the crowd be there?

He will go to Brest after the line anyway (and even on the other side of the line, in Ushant/Ouessant, there wouldn't be that many boats, it is quite offshore and a tricky area)

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7 hours ago, yl75 said:

He will go to Brest after the line anyway (and even on the other side of the line, in Ushant/Ouessant, there wouldn't be that many boats, it is quite offshore and a tricky area)

I meant watching ashore, in Brest

 

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1 hour ago, Xlot said:

I meant watching ashore, in Brest

 

 

Yes for sure, in Brest there will most probably be quite a few people (or crowd) for his arrival on Sunday.

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I would be curious to know Gabart's thoughts on IMOCA 60 vs Ultime in the southern ocean. The VORs got well pounded in the storm of the last few days where the last few Ultime record runs they just seemed to sail around bad weather at will and the goal was to hang out on the front edge of fast moving systems. Of course the VORs had a certain start date so they didn't have much choice about the weather they got but it would be interesting to know if Ultimes were more or less stressful overall. Gabart seemed less stressed after the Horn then he did in some videos in the Vendee he won, but then this isn't his first rodeo.

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1 minute ago, Foiling Optimist said:

I would be curious to know Gabart's thoughts on IMOCA 60 vs Ultime in the southern ocean. The VORs got well pounded in the storm of the last few days where the last few Ultime record runs they just seemed to sail around bad weather at will and the goal was to hang out on the front edge of fast moving systems. Of course the VORs had a certain start date so they didn't have much choice about the weather they got but it would be interesting to know if Ultimes were more or less stressful overall. Gabart seemed less stressed after the Horn then he did in some videos in the Vendee he won, but then this isn't his first rodeo.

Racing the clock is one thing... He also had Thomson on Hugo Boss hard on his tail last go round.

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It looks like Gabart is slowing down the boat. 20 knt wind, 25 Knt boat speed. She normally makes 5 knots faster. Even 10 if he pushes her.

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Before this is over I´d like to thank all of you who took part in this thread. It was one of the best I ever read on SA, very informative, very interesting and no bashing each other, no smart asses. Really cool. Again thank you all

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So with 200 miles to go it looks like he will brake the 43 days barrier. What Spindrift guys may be thinking....? "Boss we need a new boat!"

 

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1 hour ago, Xlot said:

 

  ^ Aiming for a daylight arrival, of course. Bet on ETA 7:30 CET, in Brest 4 hrs later, prime time

http://www.courseaularge.com/francois-gabart-a-de-800-milles-de-larrivee.html

Several TV stations will follow the arrival live, cartography will be updated every 5'

 

 

Is that confirmed as in the suggestion he is slowing down?

I'd have thought he'd be gybing for the Lizard end of the line soon to achieve the best finishing time. No?

Edited by rogerfal

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7 minutes ago, rogerfal said:

Is that confirmed as in the suggestion he is slowing down?

I'd have thought he'd be gybing for the Lizard end of the line soon to achieve the best finishing time. No?

From the tracker  he looks like going downwind to Ushant.  Fast crossing the  busy cargoes  "railway" from the Lizard  to Brest might have been deemed dangerous, which is understandable.  The last miles watch will be tough enough like this.

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19 minutes ago, moody frog said:

From the tracker  he looks like going downwind to Ushant.  Fast crossing the  busy cargoes  "railway" from the Lizard  to Brest might have been deemed dangerous, which is understandable.  The last miles watch will be tough enough like this.

Thanks - IF the wind direction we see on the tracker is correct I'd expect to see a gybe soon or as you say it's downwind to Ushant.

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The slow down bit for pr reasons, do no buy it, he wants to finish, but safe. He is now in busy waters, is tired, and pumped of course.

He can finish at night, and sail it slowly to Brest.

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Just getting to this thread.  What another amazing feat of sailing!  I am in awe of almost 41 days solo lap of this marble, as I was last year with TC.  I wish I could be watching the finish live as I did with TC, then later in the season with FJ and the Jules Verne.

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Watching the flyby, couldn't help but think of the MOD70 capsize, possibly augmented by the chopper downwash.  Just paranoid I guess.

Only 145 to go!

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The point on the finish line that is used for "Distance au but" appears to be about 20nm north of Ouessant/Ushant.  If FG gybes/jibes and heads due east to finish just south of Lizard, he's only ~80nm from the finish, not 115nm.

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Not clear what's up with he distance to go, the cartgraphie ruler shows him 50nm out as th crow flies right now but it says 117nm on the tracker. Maybe it updates more slowly. Anyway, almost there. What a ride. 

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Double click on that number.. next page is updated.

Sometimes in sync, sometimes the through click is the better one.

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8 hours ago, ET1 said:

Before this is over I´d like to thank all of you who took part in this thread. It was one of the best I ever read on SA, very informative, very interesting and no bashing each other, no smart asses. Really cool. Again thank you all

Agreed. Breath of fresh air compared to AC thread.

Big relief to have him approach home in safe conditions. Looked to be living up to its reputation a few days ago.

 

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24 minutes ago, chesirecat said:

Agreed. Breath of fresh air compared to AC thread.

Big relief to have him approach home in safe conditions. Looked to be living up to its reputation a few days ago.

 

Compared to any thread.... Go you good thing

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Superb effort from Gabart and MACIF team. 

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1 hour ago, chesirecat said:

Agreed. Breath of fresh air compared to AC thread.

Big relief to have him approach home in safe conditions. Looked to be living up to its reputation a few days ago.

 

I'd like to add my thanks too. Been great to follow and thanks all for the translations and input. I think this will be one to talk about for a long time. I still can't quite believe how easy he made it look. Great boat, great team, wonderful person. 

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17 minutes ago, PIL007 said:

No live coverage...?

Bugger.....

Congrats Team Macif

 

 

Still dark over there, wait till he arrives in Brest !

And yes, just amazing, respect !

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What an amazig journey .  Bravo Francois you pushed the boundaries of human endurance out past the known limits.  and what a vessel!!!!

 

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What does he do next?  He's accomplished to the biggest SH challenges. Now what?

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Just so thrilling to know that there are people willing to go after the record that can’t be beaten. I thought it would take a decade. Well done

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"Impossible n'est pas Français" Dixit Napoleon has he was to go to Italy across the Alps. Short on details here.

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WOWOWOWOWOW!!!

What a journey to follow!!! 

After watching TC, and then, FJ and crew, crush the existing around the world records last year, I thought for sure they would stand for decades! 

Congrats to Francois, and the entire Macif team!

INCREDIBLE!!! 

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I'm out of superlatives... Gabart is in a world of his own: the planet must be a smaller for him, to go around that fast!

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