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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

      Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules.  Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo.  Warning and or timeout for a first offense.  PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members.  See above for penalties.  Caveat:  if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods.  We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post.   We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking.  There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious.  There is no standard, we will know it when we see it.  If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining.  Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious.  Deal with it.  Welcome to anarchy.   If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to.  They will be explained to you soon enough.  
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DryArmour

Can It Be Over Now? (2017 Hurricane Season)

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With just a few days left in the 2017 Caribbean, Atlantic, GOM and Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane season, the upper wind charts find a very active pattern. This turbulent upper atmosphere should squash any tropical cyclones that try to spin up between now and November 30th when the season technically ends. There is one small area SW of Kauai that may see an attempt of a spin up next week but with what seems to be a very active sub tropical jet, that system too seems destined to get sheared off before it can get ramped up to something more serious.

What a hurricane season it was. Tropical Storm Arlene ignored the traditional "seasonal date boundaries" (June 1-November 30th) and became on the second Tropical storm to form in the month of April since records have been kept. Devastating hurricane Harvey defied the intensity models and smashed into the Texas barrier islands around Port Aransas. Harvey put his vacation to the Lone Star State into park mode for almost two days and dropped 70+ inches of rain in the Houston area causing devastating loss of property but thankfully, not too many lives were lost. The great Hurricane of 1900 also landed as a category 4 but some 8000 lives were lost as satellites were not yet in use and the people had little to no warning before the storm came ashore. Harvey was a mid August storm forming on August 17th. More than $200B in damage made Harvey the most destructive storm in terms of property loss in US history surpassing Hurricane Katrina's $170B price tag.

Just two weeks later (Aug 30) hurricane Irma formed SW of the Canary Islands off of Africa and marched westward. She found favorable conditions and decimated the northern leeward islands as a terrible category 5 hurricane. The BVIs, Cuba and eventually Florida would feel her wrath before she was done.

Another two weeks would go by before the stunner of the season, Hurricane Maria would form East of the Leeward Islands. You can read more of my analysis on the 2017 hurricane devastation in an upcoming article in Time magazine's YACHTING WORLD. No one is happier to see this season come to an end than me. I live for these storms but am still reeling in the wake of their devastation. Please help support those affected by the hurricanes by visiting the region and if you have the time and skills, actually going down to help rebuild these people's lives.
A look at the Great Hurricane of 1900 that took more than 8000 lives.

 

 

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I read "Isaac's Storm", a good read. 

New Orleans came out lucky this year, as the bad ones went west of us, then East.  Our Katrina card must still be good.  Thanks for your weather wisdom and updates over the years.

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Mark, you were right, that cell south of the islands has become a wet and prolonged episode. is the recent trend of stuff getting drawn up from around 10d standard in the winter? I seem to recall most of the winter weather coming from the NW, but now with the real time satellite animated imagery I can see the moisture down south getting pulled up.

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On 11/28/2017 at 7:48 AM, Bruno said:

Mark, you were right, that cell south of the islands has become a wet and prolonged episode. is the recent trend of stuff getting drawn up from around 10d standard in the winter? I seem to recall most of the winter weather coming from the NW, but now with the real time satellite animated imagery I can see the moisture down south getting pulled up.

The shear over the Hawaiian Islands remains entirely robust. Pele is doing her job and it appears that anything that tries to develop over the next ten days will be swept away to the WSW in surface flow.

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4 hours ago, checkstay said:

The Conch Republic Navy burned the hurricane flags last night.

I like it.  Order a new set though.  June will be here before you know it...

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Poor guys on the east coast.  We faired much better than normal here in Hawaii this year.  Which makes me worry more about next year.

DA, thanks so much for your updates and wisdom the last few years I have been following these threads since moving to the Islands.

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