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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

      Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules.  Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo.  Warning and or timeout for a first offense.  PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members.  See above for penalties.  Caveat:  if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods.  We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post.   We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking.  There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious.  There is no standard, we will know it when we see it.  If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining.  Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious.  Deal with it.  Welcome to anarchy.   If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to.  They will be explained to you soon enough.  
duncan (the other one)

VOR Leg 4 Melbourne to Honkers

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1 minute ago, Comsdown said:

what is the ETA for first boat? volvo site not showing the time because the text is too long on the header.

19th 14:00 - 16:00 UTC?

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2 minutes ago, Varan said:

V11, you better watch your butt. Dong's a coming.

Eh?  They dropped 40nm in the last 6 hours.  

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14 minutes ago, Roleur said:

Eh?  They dropped 40nm in the last 6 hours.  

How much gauge to the south of V11's line did Dong obtain before going stealth? About 12nm. GFS and ECMWF both predict wind to veer in the 24 hours, and lighten in the north. Best breeze is forecast south of V11's line. If the forecasts pan out, DF could come on strong in stronger wind with a better angle. And yes, I'm an optimist that never says give. Go dong!

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1 minute ago, Varan said:

How much gauge to the south of V11's line did Dong obtain before going stealth? About 12nm. GFS and ECMWF both predict wind to veer in the 24 hours, and lighten in the north. Best breeze is forecast south of V11's line. If the forecasts pan out, DF could come on strong in stronger wind with a better angle. And yes, I'm an optimist that never says give. Go dong!

Seems like you are missing a key ingredient.  Akzo has shown a propensity to hang onto Dong's transom for dear life.  Why would they gybe back on Vestas' line if Dong continued?

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Dong did gybe back before going stealth. Would you guess they would then go south again after going stealth?

They gybed back in line with Vestas & Skally around 2018.01.16 21:44:15 UTC.

You can drag the red dot on the Volvo tracker back to the left and replay the track since last posting.

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36 minutes ago, Roleur said:

Seems like you are missing a key ingredient.  Akzo has shown a propensity to hang onto Dong's transom for dear life.  Why would they gybe back on Vestas' line if Dong continued?

True. Replaying the VOR tracker, when the paint bucket jibed, dong was on V11's line, within 15 nm (from what I can tell on my phone). Then they gybed, perhaps to stay in front of akzo, perhaps to work sw in the prevailing or anticipated conditions. V11 gybes back and so does dong, but then they go stealth. Why? Perhaps they are going to dig sw-ward again, or perhaps to raise concern on V11 to draw their attention away from sailing fast. In any case, they gained some separation from V11, lost nothing to akzo, and placed themselves directly in front of mapfre, who they must bet, so must cover.

Stealth is great for fan speculation.

Edit: But mapfre now gybes. Does dong cover? Was it a "fake" gybe, where they gybe back immediately after the position report, to maybe force dong to gybe again and extend SW?

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12 minutes ago, Varan said:

True. Replaying the VOR tracker, when the paint bucket jibed, dong was on V11's line, within 15 nm (from what I can tell on my phone). Then they gybed, perhaps to stay in front of akzo, perhaps to work sw in the prevailing or anticipated conditions. V11 gybes back and so does dong, but then they go stealth. Why? Perhaps they are going to dig sw-ward again, or perhaps to raise concern on V11 to draw their attention away from sailing fast. In any case, they gained some separation from V11, lost nothing to akzo, and placed themselves directly in front of mapfre, who they must bet, so must cover.

Stealth is great for fan speculation.

Edit: But mapfre now gybes. Does dong cover? Was it a "fake" gybe, where they gybe back immediately after the position report, to maybe force dong to gybe again and extend SW?

Did you mean Akzo? V11hasn't gybed to the southwest since the 14th...

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Hilarious.  Look at the face.

Leg 4, Melbourne to Hong Kong, day 16

Good position report and making great progress towards the finish. Just over 1000 nm to go and a happy David Witt on board Sun Hung Kai/Scallywag.

Photo by Konrad Frost/Volvo Ocean Race. 16 January, 2018.

Screen Shot 2018-01-17 at 3.12.39 AM.png

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4 hours ago, Francis Vaughan said:

Given the scheds are 6 hours apart it isn't exactly a huge strategic weapon. Maybe DF/AK might see some value in denying one another the ability to cover. They are the only real battle atm, and they are currently out of AIS range of one another.

The Dong must have heard you. I imagine the Paintwaggon will keep theirs SM card up their sleeve untill the Dong reappear or for later on down the track.

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6 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Hilarious.  Look at the face.

Not sure Witt will sleeping well off watch....he will be listening to every sound the rig makes that threatens it's verticality.

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

Not sure Witt will sleeping well off watch....he will be listening to every sound the rig makes that threatens it's verticality.

That's the truth.  

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41 minutes ago, familysailor said:

Did you mean Akzo? V11hasn't gybed to the southwest since the 14th...

Yep, I fucked that up. Thanks.

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I don't think Dong's use of stealth is meant to hide any kind of risky move.  I think they'll sail what they believe to be the fastest course to HK, and stealth was executed simply because it would be wasteful to not use it.  If it results in getting a split from VS11, great.  If not, no harm done.  Per my earlier post, I was actually thinking the entire fleet should go stealth for the hell of it.  That would make for an odd day in race central.

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22 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Hilarious.  Look at the face.

Leg 4, Melbourne to Hong Kong, day 16

Good position report and making great progress towards the finish. Just over 1000 nm to go and a happy David Witt on board Sun Hung Kai/Scallywag.

Photo by Konrad Frost/Volvo Ocean Race. 16 January, 2018.

Screen Shot 2018-01-17 at 3.12.39 AM.png

Looks like he just polished off a joint.

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Latest from OBR Brian Carlin onboard Turn the Tide on Plastic:

Not sure why I haven't been writing, it’s been a little on the side to be honest.

Basically Dee and Brian have been running the routing for the boats last night - the boats and routing for the competitors, they are gauging how much on elapsed time do we finish and who has to gybe.

Bottom line is that a number of boats have to gybe and some finish within 45mins to 2 hours of us, theoretically! what's that mean! simple, a couple of small mistakes, a couple of bad decisions puts us firmly back in the game for a better result.

The crew’s resilience not to give up is remarkable. And it merits some well-earned advice, the last time they came close with any other boat at the finish was SHK in Cape Town - I believe the delta was 68 seconds! So advice taken, keep pushing.

On a personal note: Drone flying confidence is at an all-time high, I mean borderline cocky, which could result in.... well let’s not go there, I’m getting more and more brave every day and really enjoying pushing. The wind speed, max pressure now has been 25 kts in a pretty rough sea state, makes landing tricky....

I’m counting down the miles to finish, I’ve earned an iced cold one after this trip.. it’s still 27 degrees, before sunrise...! I'm sure you’re all screaming what’s the problem! We live in a carbon sweat box! so no thanks to the heat.

Laters,
Bri

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2 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Tracker update.  Vestas gybed.

Whose the new Race Expert chick?

But where is dfrt? Tick, tick tick,... Thanks for informing us of unscheduled updates.

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2 minutes ago, Varan said:

But where is dfrt?

Marine Traffic?  Vessel Finder?  Are they blocked on these sites?   I can't find the fleet for some reason.

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Leg 4, Melbourne to Hong Kong, day 16

Live X call to a School in Hong Kong and David Witt answers questions from the school children on board Sun Hung Kai/Scallywag.

Photo by Konrad Frost/Volvo Ocean Race. 16 January, 2018.

Screen Shot 2018-01-17 at 3.52.43 AM.png

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2 hours ago, southerncross said:

Whose the new Race Expert chick?

Alice Williams, Watch Producer. Worked previously for Red Handed TV

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Had anyone else noticed that when you rewind the tracker to where Dong gybed NW again just before going stealth their reported distance to finish and other info on the tracker was:

Charles Caudrelier
ETA Status
- RAC
SOG kt COG
11.9 274°
VMG kt DTF nm
11.4 1 230.2
TWS kt TWA
15.8

133°

 

In the latest report the info shown is:

Charles Caudrelier
ETA Status
- STM
SOG kt COG
18.4 291°
VMG kt DTF nm
18.4 1 130.1
TWS kt TWA
18.2 134°

It looks like the tracker is showing their info but not the boat on the screen.

This is from the drop down menu when you click on a particular boat.

Is this something I'm reading wrong?

 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Not sure Witt will sleeping well off watch....he will be listening to every sound the rig makes that threatens it's verticality.

He'll sleep like a log. It's amazing how well one can sleep through noise after a few days :) 

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1 hour ago, familysailor said:

Had anyone else noticed that when you rewind the tracker to where Dong gybed NW again just before going stealth their reported distance to finish and other info on the tracker was:

Charles Caudrelier
ETA Status
- RAC
SOG kt COG
11.9 274°
VMG kt DTF nm
11.4 1 230.2
TWS kt TWA
15.8

133°

 

In the latest report the info shown is:

Charles Caudrelier
ETA Status
- STM
SOG kt COG
18.4 291°
VMG kt DTF nm
18.4 1 130.1
TWS kt TWA
18.2 134°

It looks like the tracker is showing their info but not the boat on the screen.

This is from the drop down menu when you click on a particular boat.

Is this something I'm reading wrong?

 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Well spotted. Could be a stealth security glitch.

 

Edit, they seem to have removed Dongs track completely now.

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Scally extends sailing a straight line while all behind have to gybe at 90 degrees to the course.

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54 minutes ago, DtM said:

Scally extends sailing a straight line while all behind have to gybe at 90 degrees to the course.

All the ducks are lining up nicely.

 

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1 hour ago, NORBowGirl said:

He'll sleep like a log. It's amazing how well one can sleep through noise after a few days :) 

The noise bit won’t be the issue, it’ll be the nagging little voice in the back of his mind about having gear failure and loosing position. 

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I measured distance sailed from official VOR tracks:

Scallywag: 5239.3NM

Vestas 11th Hour Racing: 5179.3NM

Team AkzoNobel: 5214.6NM

MAPFRE: 4986.1NM

Team Brunel: 5001.8NM

Turn The Tide on Plastic: 4966.5NM

Dongfeng Race Team: 5092.6NM

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Not sure Witt will sleeping well off watch....he will be listening to every sound the rig makes that threatens it's verticality.

 

2 hours ago, NORBowGirl said:

He'll sleep like a log. It's amazing how well one can sleep through noise after a few days :) 

Norweligian you obviously haven't spent a lot of time worrying about things staying vertical.

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35 minutes ago, mad said:

The noise bit won’t be the issue, it’ll be the nagging little voice in the back of his mind about having gear failure and loosing position. 

There is also Wharro the sun fish magnet to worry about

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47 minutes ago, forss said:

I measured distance sailed from official VOR tracks:

Scallywag: 5239.3NM

Vestas 11th Hour Racing: 5179.3NM

Team AkzoNobel: 5214.6NM

MAPFRE: 4986.1NM

Team Brunel: 5001.8NM

Turn The Tide on Plastic: 4966.5NM

Dongfeng Race Team: 5092.6NM

They are pretty interesting stats forss. Akzo doesn't surprise but for Scallylegs to exceed it, they must have burnt up a lot of unproductive miles getting to the equator in advance of the corner. 

That is pretty ordinary work but now in the history books and overtaken by their guts and winning move to cut the corner.

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8 hours ago, southerncross said:

Man, no fan of the Dongers, eh?

He clearly doesn't understand the term "One Design" Southern

SS

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37 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

They are pretty interesting stats forss. Akzo doesn't surprise but for Scallylegs to exceed it, they must have burnt up a lot of unproductive miles getting to the equator in advance of the corner.

They (Scally) spent about 20 NM on the detour before they got to the Solomons not that that invalidates your point.

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2 hours ago, DtM said:

Scally extends sailing a straight line while all behind have to gybe at 90 degrees to the course.

They are sailing in advance of the shift that will make the enivatable (at current forecast) Balintang Channel gybe a interesting box of monkeys for everyone else. 

At the moment AkZ is willing to burn up some BS and DTF time now and get south in advance of that more than others, particularly Vestas. My guess is when the Dong come out of stealth they may well be the southern most boat. Hence why they went dark.

If Scally doesn't implode the battle for 2 & 3 on the podium is going to get very interesting shortly.

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15 minutes ago, rogerfal said:

They spent about 20 NM on the detour before they got to the Solomons not that that invalidates your point.

Even taking out the detour they burnt up around 200 mile before the half way point fucking around going no where. 

Witty will remember that on his 40th beer...not.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Even taking out the detour they burnt up nearly 200 mile before the half way point fucking around going no where. 

Witty will remember that on his 40th beer...not.

Agree - something of that order and on the beer absolutely :D

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1 hour ago, rogerfal said:

Agree - something of that order and on the beer absolutely :D

Well he better not get too pissed. 

After the bullshit leg to Mainland China to keep the Dong show and Shang happy :-)...the large slab of uphill tour (which no one has seen yet) back to Auckland will sort the men out from the boys in the Nav department. 

Scally ain't in my top 6 for that racetrack, lucky or not. 

Hardest leg of this edition to get right. It is brutal in the Nav department.

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You don't know which nav they will have JS! ;) 

& as always. Strong possibility of a doldrums restart half way. 

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11 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Well he better not get too pissed. 

After the bullshit leg to Mainland China to keep the Dong show and Shang happy :-)...the large slab of uphill tour (which no one has seen yet) back to Auckland will sort the men out from the boys in the Nav department. 

Scally ain't in my top 6 for that racetrack, lucky or not. 

Hardest leg of this edition to get right. It is brutal in the Nav department.

I’m much looking forward to this. In a one design race these type of tactical decisions make it most fascinating. Downwind drag racing is only interesting for a limited period of time.... for me that is. 

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22 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

You don't know which nav they will have JS! ;) 

Good call Scan. 

After watching the LIVE interview with Witt where he said we gained because Warro and I decided we would tear up the gribs, but no mention of Libby?? WTF.

Hopefully Libby has a pressing engagement, if I was her I would step off in HK that untalented tetestrone machine going nowhere.

That would bring in Nav No 4 on Scallylegs at just halfway...a record in itself..funny about that.

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Jack et al,

The nav this leg brutal...... the actual idea of the next.... (> 5000 NM semi upwind in plenty) is operationally deranged.

Are we sure the ring frames in the starboard bow are up to the task..... roughly 250,000 impacts.....concentrated hmmm.

Anyhow, great to see the Scallys get cranked; Witty is no scientist, but the new lineup just might be OK. Their trim/sail selection/steering integration also looks way better now.

Thanks to all the contributors here for the entertainment this leg. even the wrong questions were useful!

Frog out.

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But while we are here, it may be that this leg is quite a good lesson in the limitations of the grib God...

From regular offshore, we 'know' that Mr Grib (on a 48 hour look forward) is about 80% correct...but accordingly 20% incorrect.

But for longer times (and near to places like ITCZ) the correct proportion reduces.

Whilst the macro pattern (i.e. tradewind) is predicted, the Detail Devil appears.

And remember, these guys are trying to get aligned on a forward look of more than 6 days within the macro.

So, if we look back at the bet that Scally took to be southish, we might be able to estimate that the opposing (northish) bet had about 50% probability of being correct.

But the behavior of the trade wind near the ITCZ (in this instance) operated more like a cold front (with stronger wind near the leading edge) than usual (probably another 80/20 bet) and so the extra miles N got cancelled out, with a 50% bonus added. (i.e. Scally success probability 20%, but avoided ~ 70 miles of 'going north")

North group, 50% success probability, but had to pay 70 miles for the better odds. Definitely Hmmmmm.....

Hindsight is wonderful; but maybe this is what occurred.

Thoughts, all brothers and sisters?

And remember, I know only a little.

 

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Dongfeng is going for 0/4... basically leading ALL 4 legs probably longer than any other boat and then losing...

I am wondering, are they trying to hard, is it just bad luck, is someone not doing his/her job properly or are others simply better?

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9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Not sure Witt will sleeping well off watch....he will be listening to every sound the rig makes that threatens it's verticality.

well done Grant Wharington you were the difference IMO,  put this one on the shelves if Scally can win..! This one is for the Aussies and the home team..!

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9 hours ago, southerncross said:

Marine Traffic?  Vessel Finder?  Are they blocked on these sites?   I can't find the fleet for some reason.

They are to far out for ground based AIS. I have the fleet saved and the last AIS signals were from Melbourne. Judging from what showing up in VFinder the tracker will be live before the boats are on AIS again.

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Fark Silv,

Leading is hard...the second guy gets a look at the real ahead from you, the third guys looks at you and the second guy.... etc

The first guy is the trailblazer, he cannot cover really; if he covers conventionally, he gets killed.... etc atc....

Don't forget also, that these guys are operating at the endurance limit.....perfect decisions at 0400 after 5 days of crappy sleep and 15 days of freeze dried may not be obtainable.

 

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19 minutes ago, Frogman56 said:

Hindsight is wonderful; but maybe this is what occurred.

Thoughts, all brothers and sisters?

And remember, I know only a little.

You conveniently forget to mention/put any weight to in that wonderful tactical and weather routing expose of yours where Scally was before entering the ITCZ. They were in a completely different box of weather monkeys is one word.

The other word is a 100 plus mile behind and fucked.

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8 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Vestas said to be going stealth.

I thought they would... Makes sense.

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STM interesting feature among the ones racing, utter BS to hide boats from the viewers and fans. 

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JS,

YUP...

Not justifying anything, just trying to explain it.. with the retrospectascope at full magnification.

Just in the rearview though, Witty has probably been HK/Subic enough times  to have some feel that his 'option free' bet might be OK?

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Report from OBR Amory Ross onboard Vestas 11th Hour Racing:

Lat/Long: 17.002N / 132.813E
Wind: 18 kts
Air Temp: 32c
Sea Temp: 29c
Boatspeed: 17 kts
Heading: 307-degrees

Last night was most unpleasant. A seriously large and confused sea state from a low-pressure system to our north collided with a slew of large rain clouds to concoct a real recipe of discomfort. Some clouds pushed 35-40 knots of wind, launching us into breaking waves from random directions. Less than ideal, and rest was elusive for most with the violent crashes and unpredictable state of life down below. 

Daybreak brought a mellower scene with calmer seas and fewer clouds. We still have 17-20 knots of wind but with the flat water it’s a quiet scene down below with lots of sleepy sailors catching up on the busy night. We have some gybes in the routing to get south as the wind begins to shift left, gradually bending us around towards Hong Kong. These gybes are the last tactical decisions before Luzon and the entrance to the South China Sea, now 650 miles away, so the next 12-24 hours should be interesting. Dongfeng has just gone into “stealth mode,” so we don’t know where they’ve chosen to step down or how many times they may gybe, but SiFi is confident our timing thus far has been good. 

It would be easy to assume the strategic mind-set at this point is a defensive one with the race leader and Dongfeng currently to our east, but I don’t get that sense at all. There’s a lot that can happen in the remaining miles and Scallywag’s lead is not invincible. Winning the leg is still the clear priority!

Amo.

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9 minutes ago, Slark said:

They are to far out for ground based AIS. I have the fleet saved and the last AIS signals were from Melbourne. Judging from what showing up in VFinder the tracker will be live before the boats are on AIS again.

Last shore based AIS report I have seen for MAPFRE was just past Batemans Bay. That was on marinetracker.com.  They claim there is a more up to date satellite fix, but you have to pay to see it. What they won't tell you is how up to date that fix is. It could easily be a week old. I was planning of spending some time and money on determining if there was any use, but I haven't had the time or brain cycles to spend on it for the moment.

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From SHK/Scallywag OBR Konrad Frost:

If this were a movie you’d say it was over dramatized.

With more twists and turns than you could think up the crew on SHK have somewhat defied the critics and have sailed an incredible leg to be within touching distance of the finish in Hong Kong and victory in the leg.
 
Speaking tonight with David Witt on deck it was clear the potential result would take a little while to sink in – '‘I think if we manage to pull this off I don’t think anyone really understands the magnitude of it is. There are so many firsts, first Hong Kong team ever, first time to Hong kong, hopefully we will have plenty of time in Hong Kong over beers to let it sink in but we have to get there first’'
 
When asked what difficulties lay ahead in the coming days ‘'for me the biggest concern is from here to the top of the Philippines.  Once we get around the corner of the Philippines to Hong Kong its pretty easy, I don’t think we can get passed there, between here and there now is probably the most danger so the next 24 hours is the most important’'
 
Not one to tempt fate it is clear that despite the lead the team have built up they aren’t going to lose sight that there is plenty still to do but they you can a confidence growing as the scheds go by and the y continue to do well.
 
'‘We’ve got a nice lead and at the next sched if the teams have gybed we will have an even nicer lead.  Basically the only way we are going to lose it is if we park up and stop, and I’ll make sure we won’t do that’'.
 
With under a 1000nm to the finish the nails will get shorter but the smiles will hopefully get even bigger.

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4 minutes ago, Frogman56 said:

Fark Silv,

Leading is hard...the second guy gets a look at the real ahead from you, the third guys looks at you and the second guy.... etc

The first guy is the trailblazer, he cannot cover really; if he covers conventionally, he gets killed.... etc atc....

Don't forget also, that these guys are operating at the endurance limit.....perfect decisions at 0400 after 5 days of crappy sleep and 15 days of freeze dried may not be obtainable.

 

Well, fark to you too...

What you say is quite obvious, but the French are still considered to be the kings of ocean racing, although maybe more in the solo stuff...

IMHO pure luck has a lot to do with current results, but some may argue that "luck" doesn't come by itself...

I guess we will have a good answer in about 6 months...

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Update from skipper Dee Caffari onboard Turn the Tide on Plastic:

Well we must be closing land as the volume of other vessels has increased significantly from zero to two. Even tonight we can see some lights on the horizon. We know this will increase especially now we only have just over 1000 miles to run.

An amazing thing happened today...we gybed and sailed on port. This is amazing because apart from some floating around in the light patch by the Solomon Islands, we have been on starboard for most of this leg and today we spent nearly two hours on port. We even moved the stack around, we were that committed to being on port.

We were being lifted and so we wanted to gybe. Then a cloud that had been chasing us gave us a glorious header on our new gybe making it perfect for us for a while. the only disappointment was the pressure. It was quite light winds, still I guess we can't have everything. Now we are back on starboard sailing fast in increasing pressure towards the Philippines.

Dee and Team TTTOP

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14 minutes ago, Frogman56 said:

Don't forget also, that these guys are operating at the endurance limit.....perfect decisions at 0400 after 5 days of crappy sleep and 15 days of freeze dried may not be obtainable.

Walk in the park compared to last Leg.

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4 minutes ago, Frogman56 said:

this leg harder for the nav decisions

True.  Unless you're Witt and Wharro who "throw the GRIB files out the window".

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26 minutes ago, Frogman56 said:

Hindsight is wonderful; but maybe this is what occurred.

Thoughts, all brothers and sisters?

And remember, I know only a little.

In a strange way your though processes are not unreasonable, but they are also a bit naive. Naviguessing is a bit like that, but you need to think in terms of ensembles of predictions and ensembles of options with a scatter of initial conditions. Current routing software can't handle this all for you, so the naviguessers sit and run trial after trial, and attempt to include as much domain knowledge as they can as well - like meterological experience.  So in an odd way you might see that they may have certain preferences as to the better likelihoods of things evolving certain ways, however the internal thought processes and decision making is both much finer grained, and continually evolves over time. A post-hoc analysis of the decision making might be reduced to such a simplistic set of probabilities, but not as a way of actually understanding the process as it unfolded. 

Just multiplying out the odds is a quite unsophisticated way of reasoning about events that have hard edges and bifurcations in the paths available. Sometimes Bayesian reasoning is more appropriate. Sometimes there is no clear way at all.

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8 minutes ago, Francis Vaughan said:

Just multiplying out the odds is a quite unsophisticated way of reasoning about events that have hard edges and bifurcations in the paths available. Sometimes Bayesian reasoning is more appropriate. Sometimes there is no clear way at all.

Speaking of which, Scally seems to be going with their gut or local knowledge.  But they have definitely hit the lighter conditions.  

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4 hours ago, forss said:

I measured distance sailed from official VOR tracks:

Scallywag: 5239.3NM

Vestas 11th Hour Racing: 5179.3NM

Team AkzoNobel: 5214.6NM

MAPFRE: 4986.1NM

Team Brunel: 5001.8NM

Turn The Tide on Plastic: 4966.5NM

Dongfeng Race Team: 5092.6NM

Good analysis, but keep in mind that Scally is simply further down course...  Comparisons of total distance sailed will be more useful after they've all finished.  If you add each boat's DTL to their distance sailed, Scally's distance sailed is probably lower than median.

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^^ well said FV, it is the human factor that is making the difference, and that is what makes this race awesome. It is humans racing and navigating and their mistakes and successes is what we here for to watch. 

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Just now, ModernViking said:

RIP
But helps to refresh the page manually :)

That's what I had to do.  Not so Lively.  

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Hmmm I think this is going to be a much tighter finish than it looked like a day ago.
I think the final top 4 can be any combination of the 4 boats currently in the front.

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3 minutes ago, boomer said:

Live tracker is automatically updating here - just watched it update.

Reboot Safari.  Working now.

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