duncan (the other one)

VOR Leg 4 Melbourne to Honkers

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Last two hours has Scally out of phase with Vestas.. 

 

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and perhaps just reaching into some better wind than they were in... 

image.thumb.png.8fdfb0ff1e91804099b89d1cffd311db.png

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3 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

DongFeng has gybed back 

 

So just Scally on port.

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if you go to the tracker that has the STM GOG , SOG, and DTF stuff, you might notice that when you click on the different boats, their numbers box pops up to the upper right of the boats.  You can use this knowledge to guestimate where the boat is when you click on Skally and Donger.  We'll know if this is real in 7 minutes.  if you replay the tracker, that STM box moves across the screen.....  since the "special" data location has already been mentioned....

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Dongfeng is off stealth

 

EDIT: Just saw I was 6 minutes late on this announcement....

Edited by Yeah Buoy
saw another post

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1 hour ago, Varan said:

fuck em!

 

Maybe there is a  solution?  If any boat is  in Stealth Mode, the fleet should be prohibited from receiving any position reports, as well as any shore-based emails. In that way, **WE** can continue to enjoy the race, and they can do their thing. As most boats tend to go into stealth at +/- similar times, it may not be such in imposition on them. Maybe? Or... just another stupid idea? 

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Scally's lead down to 27.3nm if the tracker is still giving out correct DTF's. That must be nail biting especially knowing the 3 boats behind probably have a speed advantage in these conditions.

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6 minutes ago, samc99us said:

Scally's lead down to 27.3nm if the tracker is still giving out correct DTF's. That must be nail biting especially knowing the 3 boats behind probably have a speed advantage in these conditions.

I'm confused, are y'all able to see Scally's DTF while they're in stealth mode?

 

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Scally still on port so must be as far left as DF now or maybe a bit more.

VMG 0.1

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3 minutes ago, Yeah Buoy said:

19.9 mile lead for Skally, going by the DTF distances.   

Agreed they are on port gybe at the moment, eliminating leverage. There is enough runway left on the course for the boats behind to close a sub 20nm lead...

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VS consistently slow here - sub windspeed.  Sail change or something broken maybe?  A lot still to play for.

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4 minutes ago, vtsail said:

VS consistently slow here - sub windspeed.  Sail change or something broken maybe?  A lot still to play for.

it must be updating when they are stuffing the bow into a wave, cause now they are up to speed and Skallywag is slow. 

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So much for local knowledge and throwing the GRIB files out the window.

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What's up with vestas losing miles like this? Can't see TWS from my phone...

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7 minutes ago, chuso007 said:

What's up with vestas losing miles like this? Can't see TWS from my phone...

Their current TWS is 18. VMG & SOG currently 18.6

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9 minutes ago, chuso007 said:

What's up with vestas losing miles like this? Can't see TWS from my phone...

I was wondering the same thing. They seem to be sailing in less wind- 16kts to Dong/Akzo's 20kts.  But the live tracker shows snapshots, not averages, so sometimes hard to tell.

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If the conditions are as violent for Vestas and Dongfeng as they were for Scallywag, reaching into a steep head sea, breaking the boat out to the keel, my bet is that Charles and Franc are doing what they always do: keeping their left foot nailed to the floor and daring the boat to break.  It often doesn't and they win, occasionally it does and "c'est la vie, the boat sucks."

This is a gnarly part of the world.

SHC

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12 minutes ago, chuso007 said:

What's up with vestas losing miles like this? Can't see TWS from my phone...

Vestas is more in north with less wind
about 4 knots less of true wind speed also 4 knots less of VMG speed

Last time DF crossed vestas route, DF was 18NM behind, so I guess their longer Jybe is good for them
Since the distance is 30 NM behind, with 4 knots better VMG-speed

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It seems as if any of the four front-runners could pull it off depending on the wind gods smiling on them... or crapping on them.

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Thanks... Does Vestas hava had less wind on average than DF lately? No Pro mode on phone either...

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1 minute ago, chuso007 said:

Thanks... Does Vestas hava had less wind on average than DF lately? No Pro mode on phone either...

For the last hour or so yes.

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Yes---

ardel explained above. Although the wind speed seems to vary 2 to 4 knots up and down over very short periods. Mostly for Vestas and Skally.

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15 minutes ago, chuso007 said:

What's up with vestas losing miles like this? Can't see TWS from my phone...

Not to be rude, but have you tried flip your phone to get a broader screen? 

At least this is what I do on my iPhone to see all the parameters ;) 

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Staring at the pro mode graphs since DF gybed back at ~18h30
VMG DF ~21 , Akzo 20ish , Vestas 19 knots
TWA similar 135ish,
TWS simlar ~20kts. Vestas dropping a bit (4kts) in the last 30 minutes or so. Akzo had the least wind for the longest.

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Dong and apparently Skally are just enough further south to be in more and steadier wind. Vestas might need to dive south again...

 

EDIT: What Chasm said--- I was late on my post.

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Vestas has gotten into more wind but their Boat speed is 2 knots less than tws. Dong has less wind but more boat speed than Vestas. Frustrating...

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I'm hoping the HK event organizers pull some strings and get the Marine Region to provide an escort for each boat that comes in... not sure I'd want to risk it entering HK, and while Kai Tak and Tathong channel is not as busy as it was before all the land reclamation and airport construction, just a quick look on marine traffic gives me the shivers.

 

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14 hours ago, PIL007 said:

Might be time for a little dig DW

 

22 hours ago, PIL007 said:

If all Jibe, Scally needs to follow... This is a match race so stay between your opposition and the next mark .... simples.   They did the reverse to get in the lead ...

Witty appears pretty keen for beer or 40 at the end....

 

4 hours ago, southerncross said:

This is where Witty's Bravado kicks him in the arse.  Should have gybed sooner.  

 

4 hours ago, southerncross said:

I'd say soon.

Screen Shot 2018-01-17 at 4.34.05 PM.png

I know it is easy to sit here in my office and make asumptions but to me and others (Southern) it seemed obvious that  Vestas and Dong where sailing the same speeds but lower.  If i'm to believe all the numbers from this tracker,  Scally should have mirrored their moves by jibing earlier and now we see the proof.... terrible last 20 hours for Scally.

This pattern is consistent from the last two legs as well.

Come on Scally... Cover their asses and win this thing... it's killing me.

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28 minutes ago, NORBowGirl said:

Not to be rude, but have you tried flip your phone to get a broader screen? 

At least this is what I do on my iPhone to see all the parameters ;) 

I have, but my phone has the buttons on the screen, so when I flip it, the "go back" or "undo" button , whatever it's called, lies just on top of the drop down menu so I can't click it... 

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Can someone post the link to the pro mode again?  I'm sure it's back a few pages but I'm too lazy to search for it. 

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Let's face it, TSHK/Scallywag got lucky to find themselves in the lead.

Do they have the skill to stay there?

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1 minute ago, Sailbydate said:

Let's face it, TSHK/Scallywag got lucky to find themselves in the lead.

Do they have the skill to stay there?

Most likely their best chance for the whole race and they've only themselves to blame if they don't.

I'll give em my vote if only to will the fuckers to HK

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6 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

Do they have the skill to stay there?

It's going to come down to guts, staying between the finish and the other boats.  Leaving nothing on the course.  Can they/will they dig deep like Mapfre did last round?

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1 minute ago, southerncross said:

It's going to come down to guts, staying between the finish and the other boats.  Leaving nothing on the course.  Can they/will they dig deep like Mapfre did last round?

For Witty's sake - I hope they hold off. The way he cycles from euphoria and depression, I'd be concerned if they lose it within sight of HK.

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I hate to play the forum cop - but can we just enjoy what's available instead of repeatedly increasing the chance it'll get put on a IT guy's work list and get taken away?

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4 minutes ago, familysailor said:

Funny--- I'm not using Pro Mode on my Mac with firefox to get it.

(modified)

Funny, that explains why I don't seem to have a drop down  on my PC, with Chrome and Pro Mode.

When I go to Firefox without Pro Mode, I do get it.

PS. This message is somewhat garbled to hide it from the Forum Police.

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Can't see any carparks up in front for Scallylucky, however can see a lot places through to the otherside of the channel where one wrong gybe could be a deadly. 

Wonder if Libby is allowed to pick the laylines or is Witt & Warro sniffing the air and throwing gumleaves on the water. 

 

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Wonder if Libby is allowed to pick the laylines or is Witt & Warro sniffing the air and throwing gumleaves on the water. 

Good one.  But haven't they done some miles around here before in the big boat?

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Just now, southerncross said:

Good one.  But haven't they done some miles around here before in the big boat?

 

So they say. Most Aussies who journey north of Singapore sail to HK/Vietnam during SW monsoon, return during NE. Fewer have done it via New Caledonia without just going to Okinawa/Nagasaki/Osaka. 

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Variety of events organized by the Royal HK Yacht Club - some to Hainan, Philippines, Vietnam. Taiwan is the wrong way.

The only "local" knowledge they would have is up to New Caledonia if that that, and general understanding that weather prediction is iffy - the major currents are what the Japanese know and write about, if an amateur like me has encountered it - the professionals would know before hand.

 

Edit: sort of an drift - but what really kills me about the "follow the money" sailing program development is Japan really should be the big player, yah the economy is stagnant but people have money, and the society has developed to a point that appreciates leisure and actually follows the rules and respects trade craft. But we've collectively dropped the ball there and can't wait to see what'll happen with the Abu Dhabi or Chinese programs. 

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3 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Just trying to get an idea of what area they might be familiar with.

From PI to HK only but further south than this.

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13 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Can't see any carparks up in front for Scallylucky, however can see a lot places through to the otherside of the channel where one wrong gybe could be a deadly. 

Wonder if Libby is allowed to pick the laylines or is Witt & Warro sniffing the air and throwing gumleaves on the water. 

 

Can anyone say "nightmare ahead?"

Screen Shot 2018-01-17 at 2.27.57 PM.png

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40 minutes ago, Miffy said:

I hate to play the forum cop - but can we just enjoy what's available instead of repeatedly increasing the chance it'll get put on a IT guy's work list and get taken away?

If "they" don't know by now there's not much to do about it.... who knows? It might be working as intended.

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1 minute ago, southerncross said:

Quietly watching Mapfre sneak up underneath.

Noticed that too. Sure hope Akzo stays ahead of her.

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Vestas defending or just gybing on the shift - both

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I wonder if we’ll see another nav onboard if they blow this? Or has the new brains trust of Witty and Wharro decided if they win, they don’t really need one anyway?

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Be good if Volodia could get TWD on pro mode. Please

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3 minutes ago, rogerfal said:

Vestas defending or just gybing on the shift - both

I think they went for pressure. Shift is working in Dong's favor. May be an AIS range soon.

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This sucks. I took a break from work and checked on this race, and now I cannot go back. Maybe that's a good thing.

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1 minute ago, rogerfal said:

Be good if Volodia could get TWD on pro mode. Please

Volodia doesn't live here. He died before they invented computers so he can't help us.

 

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13 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Quietly watching Mapfre sneak up underneath.

Vila has set up a great approach to get to the channel...lot miles still to reel in though.

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Near as I can tell, Scally spent about 90 minutes on stbd after going stealth, so approximately in line with DF and 30 nm ahead of VS crossing point

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1 hour ago, Miffy said:

I hate to play the forum cop - but can we just enjoy what's available instead of repeatedly increasing the chance it'll get put on a IT guy's work list and get taken away?

The pro mode extension is sanctioned by VOR. Not advertised, but race experts and commentators were using it. 

(It takes the tracker data itself and displays it differently. Everything happens within your browser, which you control.)

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2 minutes ago, Chasm said:

The pro mode extension is sanctioned by VOR. Not advertised, but race experts and commentators were using it. 

(It takes the tracker data itself and displays it differently.)

Not using pro mode.

So it's possible what I discovered on the regular tracker drop down is intentional?

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Back before the last gybes, VS was 20 nm directly in front of DF.  Since then, DF has gained 7 nm to leeward by sailing deeper and 3 nm faster, to about a 10 nm cross this time?  Left is fast, but it's painful to get there.

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VS should be able to jibe on Dong's line just 10nm ahead. Either one you root for is stressful!

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23 minutes ago, familysailor said:

Volodia doesn't live here. He died before they invented computers so he can't help us.

 

True, he was a great partisan but should not have stepped on a landmine.

"Our" Volodia was alive and well on January 3 here:   https://t.co/qqSxlUWsOL

Stief, who apparently is dead now, mentioned that is this thread earlier.

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2 minutes ago, southerncross said:

V gybed.

Think they saw Dong on AIS and thought "oh shit! - JIBE!"

 

Or just keeping themselves between competitors and the finish...

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1 minute ago, rogerfal said:

Not that close :)

 

1 minute ago, southerncross said:

V gybed.

I wonder if it's enough considering Dong seems to go faster in all wind strengths?

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1 minute ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Stief, who apparently is dead now, mentioned that is this thread earlier.

Still in Mexico with no Wifi.

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2 minutes ago, oceangeek said:

VS should be able to jibe on Dong's line just 10nm ahead. Either one you root for is stressful!

at 17h55 UTC, Vestas, DF and Akzo were aligned, on the route followed by Vestas and Akzo
(Despite DF going on port)
on this route DF Was 23Nm behind vestas, and akzo 33Nm behind DF.

so definitively a big gain for DF

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