DryArmour

HURRICANE WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT

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WOUND LIKE A TOP. HURRICANE WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT-The Eastern seaboard from the Carolinas through Nova Scotia are taking a beating from this extreme Nor'Easter. Nantucket reports 76mph wind gusts and there are lots of reoprts form offshore buoys of barometric pressure dropping rapidly as the system approaches.

But don't take my word for it. Here is the official bulletin from NOAA's Ocean Prediction center.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JAN 04
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JAN 05
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JAN 06

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 34N74W 972 MB MOVING NE AT 30 KT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO 70
KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 37N BETWEEN 66W AND
77W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ALSO FROM 31N TO 41N
AND W OF 58W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 T0 14 FT.

More later as the situation becomes more clear and the track is firmed up.

Batten down and be safe people.

EDIT: I accidentally left out the good part...check out these 12 hour wave heights...HOLY-SMOKES:

.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N69W 958 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 60 TO 80 KT. SEAS 28 TO 48 FT. OVER FORECAST WATERS

January fun in the Northeast Jan  2018.jpg

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Queen Mary 2 left Nyc this morning for Southampton, Uk.  Would not be my choice to be at sea today. 

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Someone please explain to me the reasoning behind leaving NYC in this mess...even if it is a big liner. 

Showing just south of JFK, 117 degrees at 14 knots.

Really??

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Georges Bank

Winds

Issued 10:00 AM AST 04 January 2018
Today Tonight and Friday.Hurricane force wind warning in effect.Wind east 60 knots increasing to southwesterly 75 this afternoon then diminishing to southwest 50 near midnight. Wind diminishing to southwest 40 early Friday morning.

Waves

Issued 05:00 AM AST 04 January 2018
Today Tonight and Friday.Seas 1 to 2 metres building to 3 to 5 early this morning and to 7 to 9 near noon. Seas building to 12 to 15 early this evening then subsiding to 7 to 9 late overnight and to 7 Friday afternoon.

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Yesterday afternoon, the local weather in DC was talking about the predicted low pressure by this evening as it passes LI will be about where Sandy bottomed out.  We got about 3" here and gusts to around 35.  Snow has stopped.  We were lucky.  50-60 miles west on the track and we would have been hammered.  

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Yikes. Hell of a blow. Almost all yachts are hauled for the winter, hope there's no fishing boats out in that.

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12 minutes ago, By the lee said:

How you tracking her? 

Marine Traffic app.  Shows the AIS signals of ships and yachts.  Wanted to see how many ships were at sea in this snot. Was surprised to see a cruise liner headed out. 

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Serious flooding in Scituate, Massachusetts. High tide records are on the verge of being broken in Boston. Credit: Jill Pelo

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1 hour ago, Vin said:

Someone please explain to me the reasoning behind leaving NYC in this mess...even if it is a big liner. 

Showing just south of JFK, 117 degrees at 14 knots.

Really??

Big ship can't be safely moored at dock with a storm surge. It'll bash along and destroy a bunch of stuff including itself. 

If she set sail it'll be a bumpy ride but she won't break loose and destroy the harbour. 

Pretty common for USN assets to leave in a hurry when typhoons are approaching Guam too. 

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48 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Serious flooding in Scituate, Massachusetts. High tide records are on the verge of being broken in Boston. Credit: Jill Pelo

That doesn't look good.

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Comparing the Queen Mary 2's track and windy.com, it looks like the breeze will be 35-45 kts behind her for the next 24 hours or so.  Maybe uncomfortable but nothing a vessel that size can't handle.  Hope they have lots of sick bags for the passengers.

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15’ high tide on Boston harbor an hour ago.  This is part of the Winthrop frostbite fleet on the flooded pier at Cottage Park YC.  The boats are parked on the west side, in the lee of the clubhouse (not my photo - from the Winthrop frostbite group on FB).

6A6A7D76-0866-4FF4-ABC4-D065F4694772.jpeg

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20 minutes ago, dash34 said:

Comparing the Queen Mary 2's track and windy.com, it looks like the breeze will be 35-45 kts behind her for the next 24 hours or so.  Maybe uncomfortable but nothing a vessel that size can't handle.  Hope they have lots of sick bags for the passengers.

Doubt that lives are at risk. We agree there.

I'm seeing gusts near 50MPH in Cos Cob Harbor. They bouy data that I see on NOAA show similar off LI. Avg wave hight near 20'. 

I think you could get to England more comfortably and for less $$.

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All the vessels at the southern end of Nova Scotia are pointed in the direction of the nearest harbour.  Good call.

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1 hour ago, dash34 said:

Comparing the Queen Mary 2's track and windy.com, it looks like the breeze will be 35-45 kts behind her for the next 24 hours or so.  Maybe uncomfortable but nothing a vessel that size can't handle.  Hope they have lots of sick bags for the passengers.

Stabilizers work wonders these days....

Stabilzer.jpg

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1 hour ago, dash34 said:

Comparing the Queen Mary 2's track and windy.com, it looks like the breeze will be 35-45 kts behind her for the next 24 hours or so.  Maybe uncomfortable but nothing a vessel that size can't handle.  Hope they have lots of sick bags for the passengers.

The QE II is almost a proper ship.  Those monster cruise ships with their 15 story superstructures just can't be terribly stable in those conditions.

QE II

queen-elizabeth.jpg.456a7c5985b1a77f58fdaabb34eb59ba.jpg

 

WTF??

quantum-arial.jpg.c3360499e3756328975b3a35cdebe97c.jpg

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48kts in Bath, Maine at 15:57, with the center of the storm sill ESE of the elbow of Cape Cod.

The boat is sitting on the corner of the yard's parking lot, about 30 feet off the water, exposed.  I'm nervous.

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5 minutes ago, sshow bob said:

48kts in Bath, Maine at 15:57, with the center of the storm sill ESE of the elbow of Cape Cod.

The boat is sitting on the corner of the yard's parking lot, about 30 feet off the water, exposed.  I'm nervous.

Keeping fingers crossed for you and others in the path of that mess.

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17 minutes ago, soak_ed said:

The QE II is almost a proper ship.  Those monster cruise ships with their 15 story superstructures just can't be terribly stable in those conditions.

QE II

queen-elizabeth.jpg.456a7c5985b1a77f58fdaabb34eb59ba.jpg

 

WTF??

quantum-arial.jpg.c3360499e3756328975b3a35cdebe97c.jpg

Yes, ugly. Both of them. But every single window represents a cabin with 2 paying passengers.

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7 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Yes, ugly. Both of them. But every single window represents a cabin with 2 paying passengers.

Plus the two in the interior cabin on the otherside of the passageway...

 

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13 minutes ago, soak_ed said:

Keeping fingers crossed for you and others in the path of that mess.

Thank you! We'll take all the crossed fingers we can get.

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20 minutes ago, sshow bob said:

48kts in Bath, Maine at 15:57, with the center of the storm sill ESE of the elbow of Cape Cod.

The boat is sitting on the corner of the yard's parking lot, about 30 feet off the water, exposed.  I'm nervous.

Good luck mate, What kind of boat?

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8 minutes ago, chuso007 said:

Good luck mate, What kind of boat?

6knsb - Sabre 34-2. Comfortable and just fast enough for handicap racing around here.

 

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1 minute ago, sshow bob said:

6knsb - Sabre 34-2. Comfortable and just fast enough for handicap racing around here.

 

Looks like a great boat to me, she'll be fine, I'm sure.

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1 hour ago, SailBlueH2O said:

NE.jpg

Sublime.

Also note the snow belt left behind across the coastal Carolinas and Virginia.  Another rare sight.

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That was circulating back home in NW Pennsylvania when they got over 6 feet of snow in about 4 days.   A very stubborn Lake Effect snow storm.  It was so bad that the very large mall closed for the 2 days after Christmas day.  Now THAT'S telling you something.  The mall never closes except on Christmas day and New Year's day.  Probably the first time in that mall's existence beginning in the mid '70s, that it was closed 3 days in a row.

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I don't think we saw more than 50 kts in the gusts, but it has been blowing a constant 35-40 for hours here.  Luckily it was NNE when it picked up and backed to N by high tide, when we saw flooding about equal to the no name (Halloween) storm of '91.  Paint shop had about 4', the machine shop about 5", and the Carpentry shop about 2".  There were lots of spots in the shops and yard that were, unfortunately over my approximately 18" boots.  Should have brought my waders.  Got lucky with the timing though, if it had had more East in it we would have had a lot of damage.  Right now it just seems like more of a PITA,  but we'll see how much drains before it freezes.  Only had a few jackstands wash out though, and we got those back it with no problems other than getting wet and cold.  You absolutely had to have a baseball hat under your warm hat though, you just could not look to weather without it, the snow was just horizontal, and really heavy.  I'd guess about 14 - 16", hard to tell.  Not bad for a 12 hour snow in these parts.

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Yup, not the yard you were in (Front St), the one next to Little Harbor (Beacon St).  It's a lot more exposed.  Where were you in ME? 

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Gotcha. 

The boat is at Robinhood in Georgetown. We live in Bath, where the storm seems to be about over, and we had time for a nice walk in a deserted town.

oCzmGuMQ08uDuSvVFYmUcCNbK3FG4lNqFtu4dgME 

 

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13 minutes ago, sshow bob said:

Gotcha. 

The boat is at Robinhood in Georgetown. We live in Bath, where the storm seems to be about over, and we had time for a nice walk in a deserted town.

oCzmGuMQ08uDuSvVFYmUcCNbK3FG4lNqFtu4dgME 

 

Nice shot.

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8 hours ago, sshow bob said:

48kts in Bath, Maine at 15:57, with the center of the storm sill ESE of the elbow of Cape Cod.

The boat is sitting on the corner of the yard's parking lot, about 30 feet off the water, exposed.  I'm nervous.

Hit about 72 this afternoon in So Cal. Bright sunshine and not a breath of wind. Coulda changed into my shorts but just left my jeans on. Did take my shirt off for a while as I prepped some bright work on deck for top coating tomorrow. Left the house this morning wearing flip flops. Cheers !

P S,

Weed is now legal in California.  Sweet Jesus !!!

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18 hours ago, dash34 said:

Comparing the Queen Mary 2's track and windy.com, it looks like the breeze will be 35-45 kts behind her for the next 24 hours or so.  Maybe uncomfortable but nothing a vessel that size can't handle.  Hope they have lots of sick bags for the passengers.

Friend has done a few transats on the QM2, usually on last-minute deals mid-winter. She also has a serious amount of offshore mileage on sailing yachts.

 

On the QM2, she enjoys a good gale mid-Atlantic, looking out the window, knowing what it would be like down there on a sailing yacht and relishing that she's NOT.

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1 hour ago, Sail4beer said:

There she is 20 hours ago

 

yes, I didnt realize the site i linked was getting its data from marinetraffic, i thought the cruise ships might be sending their own data. That must be the last time they were in AIS range of a station.

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And here’s a shot of the bridge from Toms River to Seaside Heights on Wednesday...

5579B30A-CE30-469C-8B97-AA997327FE52.jpeg

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The cruise ship Norwegian Breakaway sailed into the gut of the storm. Passengers were traumatized by the listing of the ship. A spokesman for the the cruise line said that they were "surprised" by the intensity of the storm. This sounds like the El Faro crew (Lost in hurricane Cat 4 Joaquin). I am at a complete loss when it comes to explaining why anyone on any ship would intentionally sail into an area of severe weather and massive seas.

The story here:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-passengers-recall-trip-atlantic-ocean-winter-storm-2018/

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