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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

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Hawaiidart

Anti-Ballistic Missile Anarchy

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So we had an exciting morning.  Imagine waking up to a an emergency alert on your cell phone, stating that a ballistic missile is inbound to Hawaii, telling us to take immediate shelter, and closing with the line "This is not a drill."  Turns out, as you know, it was our amazingly component state government at work, managing the emergency system just as well as it manages marinas, ferries, and schools.  However, it does make me curious: does the US have a land or sea-based system capable of destroying a ballistic missile somewhere above the exosphere?  Doe the Barking Sands range on Kuai`i have something along those lines?  

Imagine my students, at 8AM at Magic Island for a outrigger paddling regatta.  Imagine 100 kids crying and screaming while tearing across Ala Moana Blvd. to take shelter at the mall.  Imagine if some kid had been hit in the intersection.  Imagine of our stable genius in the White House thought the threat was real.  Imagine some civil service worker hitting the wrong button, causing panic in the streets at best, or WWIII at worst.  We have a saying "Lucky you live Hawaii."  We're lucky today, but not because of our government.  End of rant.

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Why would anyone bother taking shelter?

Just kiss your ass goodbye. If it's real there's no point in anything else.

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As close as we are to Pearl Harbor, the likely site or ground zero, I wasn't bothering.  I was actually watching out the window for the last, big show in town.  My wife told me to get away from the windows in case of broken glass.  My response was if the glass goes we'll be breathing irradiated oxygen resulting in a slower, more miserable death.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-Based_Midcourse_Defense

It's based in Alaska to protect CONUS from Chinese/ NorK missiles.  I don't think its coverage extends to Hawaii: the orbital dynamics are all wrong. 

You're boned.

However, the Navy does have an exo-atmosphere kill vehicle for their Standard missiles.  And the Air Force is experimenting with using the F-22 and its AIM-120 AMRAAMs to shoot down NorK missiles during their boost phase.  However, the Pentagon has said that the probabilities of these types of intercepts means you're boned.

But doooood, listen to your wife. These are NorK missiles, gawd knows where they could end up. My bet is that they'll end up nuking the gay whales offshore east side. And the yields would be pretty damn low. When our guys looked at the Soviet missileski's after the wall came down, the common belief was that Canada and Greenland would have been flat, black and glassy in a nuclear war. The Commie  delivery systems worked no better than their economic ones. 

Here yah go if you want to bone up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_defense  Looks like I've got to get back to reading Aviation Leak: there's a lot that's been happening. 

 

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We're all boned, they would just be the lucky ones getting it over with quick. 1 year, 10, 20 more max for us all.

look up "Dead Hand".

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Seems like there's bugger all you can do. Makes me wonder why they even have that alarm button. Flight time is maybe 35ish min depending. Maybe half of that will be up before the sirens go off. That's not even enough warning to say ciao and get a good drunk on. Either the rockets will malfunction and we're good or they won't and we aren't . Why worry our little heads?

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2 minutes ago, weightless said:

Seems like there's bugger all you can do. Makes me wonder why they even have that alarm button. Flight time is maybe 35ish min depending. Maybe half of that will be up before the sirens go off. That's not even enough warning to say ciao and get a good drunk on. Either the rockets will malfunction and we're good or they won't and we aren't . Why worry our little heads?

Go see Darkest Hour.

Never, never, NEVER surrender! 

In the event of a miss or a fizzle, over-pressure won't be that great and the trades will be blowing the crap back to the land of the bad haircuts. But flying glass will kill or blind you.  Duck and cover is VERY applicable. 

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Just now, Charlie Foxtrot said:

In the event of a miss or a fizzle, over-pressure won't be that great and the trades will be blowing the crap back to the land of the bad haircuts. But flying glass will kill or blind you.  Duck and cover is VERY applicable. 

Fair enough.

I filled the water tanks and prepared to "shelter in place". I'm not really a cynic, I just play one on the internet.

Still and all, the odds of those preps being both needed and useful seem very slim. The cost of false alarms is significant. On the balance I wonder if having the alarms is more likely to do harm than good.

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The Risk/ Reward cost matrix.  Always a fun one. 

The Wi-Fe used to give me all sorts of crap about my preps -- until we had to ride out a hurricane.  Then she was mighty glad she thought of all that stuff. 

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4 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Why would anyone bother taking shelter?

Just kiss your ass goodbye. If it's real there's no point in anything else.

Yeah, I think I’d head to the bar.

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2 minutes ago, Point Break said:

Yeah, I think I’d head to the bar.

I'd head to the boat. Might be some great sunsets for a while.

I really should stock up the bar on the boat, it would suck to be stuck in a nuclear wasteland with no scotch.

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5 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

I'd head to the boat. Might be some great sunsets for a while.

I really should stock up the bar on the boat, it would suck to be stuck in a nuclear wasteland with no scotch.

Mine is a 5 minute walk from the house and ready to go. Let’s see......7 knots times 1 hour equals..........yep I’ll head to the bar........

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It was “interesting” this morning.  Fairly calm here while I was trying to find out what the hell was happening.  Nothing on the tv, radio, etc.  My fire dept. radio didn’t go off.  But when they started to do their regular weekly radio test, I assumed it was a false alarm.  Then 10 min later it came over the radio stating it was a false alarm.  

Weird thing was my wife’s phone had the alarm, mine didn’t.  Wonder if she was trying to tell me something......

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13 hours ago, Hawaiidart said:

However, it does make me curious: does the US have a land or sea-based system capable of destroying a ballistic missile somewhere above the exosphere?  Doe the Barking Sands range on Kuai`i have something along those lines?

We have both land-based and sea-based systems; some work exo-atmosphere, some endo-atmosphere.  The sea-based ones have a better track record of actually working (from my admittedly parochial view).  The geometry that CF alluded to is key - there are limited engagement opportunities based on track visibility and weapons reach.  Basically, the endo systems have to be in position to get either the boost phase or re-entry; the exo systems can get mid-course.

Both systems are typically in position or on a time-based tether to be in position, set to defend different regions based on known threats.  I don't know where the land systems are, as the floating things are more in my wheelhouse.

The Barking Sands range itself doesn't have the capability, but is generally the starting point for many of the test flights.

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4 hours ago, soling2003 said:

It was “interesting” this morning.  Fairly calm here while I was trying to find out what the hell was happening.  Nothing on the tv, radio, etc.  My fire dept. radio didn’t go off.  But when they started to do their regular weekly radio test, I assumed it was a false alarm.  Then 10 min later it came over the radio stating it was a false alarm.  

Weird thing was my wife’s phone had the alarm, mine didn’t.  Wonder if she was trying to tell me something......

Sometimes some phones have settings to receive emails text messages.

Might be a carrier setting, if memory serves mine are controlled from the carriers website.  Same place as Amber alert settings.

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Correct me if I am wrong here but was this system not just brought back on line? Was not the reasoning for doing so that the threat from North Korea was deemed to been worsening and as a precaution due to that perceived deterioration state government felt such a move necessary? Question for you Five-0 types, how much of that is reality and how much political hyperbole? From afar it seems that revamping this early warning system was as much political as it was based in reality..... and that came back to bite Hawaiians in the ass, no?

Crazy stuff in any event but if you are going to have an early warning system perhaps political motivations need to be put aside and take such situation a bit more soberly.

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36 minutes ago, BillDBastard said:

Crazy stuff in any event but if you are going to have an early warning system perhaps political motivations need to be put aside and take such situation a bit more soberly.

The time for that has long since passed us. Perhaps some reason will emerge anyway.

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34 minutes ago, Point Break said:

The time for that has long since passed us. Perhaps some reason will emerge anyway.

PB, question. If I recall you were in the military and are or were in the emergency service "industry". Can you offer insight into how a state goes about knowing if they are under attack from a terrorist organization, rogue or enemy state? Is that information something that likely should be disseminated from  a federal agency as they are the ones charged in the US Constitution to defend our borders? Understanding that 5-0 is only one of two states in the past hundred years to be attacked by a foreign entity with further understanding that Japan sneak attacked Pearl Harbor and as such Hawaii might have their own civil defense system. Don't know the particulars but if you or anyone else with knowledge of who ultimately is charged with suck responsibility, it would be of interest. I always thought this sort of thing was the privy was under the domain of Strategic Air Command.

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Just now, Charlie Foxtrot said:

PB, can you recommend a tourniquet for use by a dirty civi? Compact, suitable for daily carry, easy to use, won't break the bank, and most importantly: effective?    

Really, the key is a nice broad strap of any kind. My view is no one brand is superior so long as its not too narrow or stretchy. Rather than the commercial ones we used to put a web belt with the rings into the trauma box. One like below. Without insulting you with an impromptu first aid class....when I used them (which really wasn't all that frequently) I used only as much tightness as was necessary to stop the bleeding in conjunction with pressure dressings. A tourniquet applied too tight can damage the tissue underneath. Even in cases where there is a full or partial amputation you want the surgeon to have as many options to save as much limb as possible. The caveat is that my experience is operating within 30-45 minutes of a trauma center and able to monitor the bleeding constantly until arrive. In more austere settings you may not have much choice but to really cinch it down. All the new fancy ones are air pressure like a BP cuff so you can adjust the pressure as necessary. Roll up a trauma pad and place it under the cuff right over a pressure point and its surprising how little pressure is effective.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00I8S6IMU/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o05_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

 

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29 minutes ago, BillDBastard said:

PB, question. If I recall you were in the military and are or were in the emergency service "industry". Can you offer insight into how a state goes about knowing if they are under attack from a terrorist organization, rogue or enemy state? Is that information something that likely should be disseminated from  a federal agency as they are the ones charged in the US Constitution to defend our borders? Understanding that 5-0 is only one of two states in the past hundred years to be attacked by a foreign entity with further understanding that Japan sneak attacked Pearl Harbor and as such Hawaii might have their own civil defense system. Don't know the particulars but if you or anyone else with knowledge of who ultimately is charged with suck responsibility, it would be of interest. I always thought this sort of thing was the privy was under the domain of Strategic Air Command.

I'm not sure I'm really qualified to answer that with any real insight. The last part of my career I was the agency designee to respond to the county Emergency Operation Center (EOC) when it was activated by the county government. It is a single fairly hardened location with impressive communications capabilities provided by the County Sheriff where the decision makers from the major response agencies, medical entities and local governments assemble to manage and coordinate the various interdisciplinary responses to large scale regional incidents. Over the years I did that and the various activation drills, all the written materials, and actual activations were all pointed at natural disasters, terrorist incidents, civil unrest, and medical disasters (epidemics etc). I do not recall we ever discussed except in passing how we would manage an attack on the US ie. "war" and what our role would be. The materials and training made reference to that only in the context of "when notified by the federal or state government.......". My impression was the notification would come from the federal government to the state government and be broadcast to affected counties. The exact mechanism of that is unknown to me. It is clear 1) the communication is in both directions and  ie. if a county or state became aware of the "attack" before the feds and 2) the feds and state and even the counties to some extent compared to the state have very different missions. Because of that they also have very different equipment, decision making processes and communications capability. At a very elementary level, there is no way a local FD can expect to talk on the radio to any federal asset. Coordinating at the county and state level is pretty effective. Hooking up and coordinating with the Feds is VERY HARD.

Funny story...........once designated I had to provide a location near my home for helicopter pickup in the event the road infrastructure was too damaged to reasonably/quickly travel to the location. There is a military base VERY near my home so I thought...well of course there. To double check I went over the base and inquired at public information where on the base they would prefer that happen. The Officer smiled at me and said "in the event of that kind of disaster this base will be locked down so hard its the last place you could reasonably expect to gain access to quickly". Oh.............says I. The local elementary school has a big playground with no overhead obstructions and they said no problem. Cracked me up.

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Going to say a lot of people over reacted.  Putting you children in a storm drain WTF?  As stated in many posts you have so little time to do any thing.  Got the alert on our phones(Verizon) some carriers phones did not.  Went to the radio  and found no information nor did the sirens go off.  Went about our business.  

As stated above how good is there targeting system.   5 miles from Pearl Harbor to Downtown and 5 more to Waikiki

I do agree that it was political reinstituting the attack siren as you have no to really get anywhere. It gives you a warm and fuzzy feeling you might survive.  The alerts for Tsunamis and Hurricanes can be useful  but when Iniki made the turn north towards the islands they waited 6 hours to sound them.  If you don't already have a plan in place the alerts will not help you.  We have water and canned good for about 10 days and a decent first aid kit. For a tsunami I hope I have time to get to the boat before grid lock occurs and the police close roads going to the shore. 

Going to ask one question does anyone really think little Kim will commit suicide?  If he launches a missile and it has a trajectory towards Guam, Hawaii, Alaska he has guaranteed his and his country's death before he know how successful his missiles were. .   

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5 hours ago, peragrin said:
10 hours ago, soling2003 said:

Weird thing was my wife’s phone had the alarm, mine didn’t.  Wonder if she was trying to tell me something......

Sometimes some phones have settings to receive emails text messages.

The story is developing but as nearly as I can tell:

Apparently they canceled the alarm 3 min after they sent it. So, phones that hadn't received the message by then didn't ever get it. [Current story is that the time the alarm goes out until impact is 10-12 minutes. Network delays > 3 min seem very large in an already marginal system. I had assumed we had about 20 min based on my recollection of previous stories.]

They knew almost immediately that it was a false alarm. It seems like they have a short list of messages they can send. Messages not on that list require federal authorization. Hence the 40 min delay.

Multiple local authorities sent tweets while they were waiting on the feds. Tweets? Seriously? They can't get on the local radio / television? Coast Guard sent out a message on VHF16 after those tweets. Apparently, police and fire were informed immediately but not the CG and none of them were able to get the message out in a timely and effective manner.

S(N)AFU.

The local pols have been quite open about the course of events.

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Once upon a time our Cub Scouts Pack had a evening meeting at our elementary school ...giddy little boys thought it would be cool to pull the fire alarm so I did....:ph34r:...fire trucks show up amidst the alarms blaring....who did that?.... "he did !"....good thing it was the 1950's....nothing came of it

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17 hours ago, Ishmael said:

I'd head to the boat. Might be some great sunsets for a while.

I really should stock up the bar on the boat, it would suck to be stuck in a nuclear wasteland with no scotch.

I have my secret bugout hideaway for the boat until the nuclear winter goes away........nobody will ever find me, it;s a shithole ;-)

 

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3 minutes ago, dacapo said:

I have my secret bugout hideaway for the boat until the nuclear winter goes away........nobody will ever find me, it;s a shithole ;-)

 

You have a boat in Haiti?

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6 minutes ago, Point Break said:

You have a boat in Haiti?

the other shithole (Central America)...well, neighboring shithole

15 degrees 56 min 55 sec North

86 degrees 28 minutes 35 seconds West

 

You're more than welcome to come...the dock is long enough for a couple of boats (8 ft draft at the end shallows up closer to the beach

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5 hours ago, Point Break said:

Really, the key is a nice broad strap of any kind. My view is no one brand is superior so long as its not too narrow or stretchy. Rather than the commercial ones we used to put a web belt with the rings into the trauma box. One like below. Without insulting you with an impromptu first aid class....when I used them (which really wasn't all that frequently) I used only as much tightness as was necessary to stop the bleeding in conjunction with pressure dressings. A tourniquet applied too tight can damage the tissue underneath. Even in cases where there is a full or partial amputation you want the surgeon to have as many options to save as much limb as possible. The caveat is that my experience is operating within 30-45 minutes of a trauma center and able to monitor the bleeding constantly until arrive. In more austere settings you may not have much choice but to really cinch it down. All the new fancy ones are air pressure like a BP cuff so you can adjust the pressure as necessary. Roll up a trauma pad and place it under the cuff right over a pressure point and its surprising how little pressure is effective.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00I8S6IMU/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o05_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

 

Good thoughts, thanks.  I'm way out of cert, but in my Emgr training for the bomber company the instructor basically said tighten it until the victim screams.  Then tighten it some more. He got trained up in Gulf War I. 

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The way I learned it a tourniquet is only applied as a last resort, after the first and second applications of pressure bandages has not worked. Is that still valid?

 We were instructed to write the time and date of the application on the victims forehead using their blood if nothing else is available. Good times.

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12 minutes ago, chum said:

The way I learned it a tourniquet is only applied as a last resort, after the first and second applications of pressure bandages has not worked. Is that still valid?

 We were instructed to write the time and date of the application on the victims forehead using their blood if nothing else is available. Good times.

We were taught to use a tourniquet as a last resort as well ,Army medic 1970,  and to release tightness every 10 minutes and let a little blood flow then re-tighten...CPR compression to breaths was much much different then too....actually they seem to change that up all the time

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Yeah, first aid classes will teach the simplist most easily understood principles. “Tighten it until the bleeding stops and more”. Assuming treatment by people without medical training and wound tight by the sight.....that’s great advice. If you have the training and presence of mind,  a more thoughtful use may be better for the patient in the long run. Time of application is important for the Docs to judge how to proceed once at the hospital. There are SERIOUS life threatening physiologic reactions to loosening a tourniquet. On balence, I have taken more than one off when I arrived because they were applied in a understandable panic (estimating the severity of rate and amount of blood loss is ALWAYS over estimated by laypersons) on a patient that I was confident I could control the bleeding by other means. Had one shooting where I thought for a few seconds that I was gonna be the next shooting victim when his buddies “objected” to my removing the tourniquet.  Couple interesting items......I have seen full and partial amputations where the bleeding had slowed considerably to an ooze when I arrived. The body has natural compensatory defenses of constricting distant vessels etc in response to falling blood pressure. Also.....I have never had to put one on an upper leg (thigh etc) but it is well known that those require greater pressure and sometimes multiple tourniquets to control bleeding.

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15 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

We were taught to use a tourniquet as a last resort as well ,Army medic 1970,  and to release tightness every 10 minutes and let a little blood flow then re-tighten...CPR compression to breaths was much much different then too....actually they seem to change that up all the time

If you can get to Doc/hospital within a couple hours do not loosen. You’re just blowing off any partially formed clots and risking some serious system wide metabolic shock issues. No longer thought to be a good approach.

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I've listened to a couple of combat medics (NOT formal training!) They were advocates for very aggressive use of tourniquets. Especially in a mass casualty incident. They both carried two tourniquets everywhere they went - much more likely to use a tourniquet than a gun. 

Supposedly, the Las Vegas shooting could have been much, much worse except for the civi's enthusiastic use of tourniquets.

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7 hours ago, Charlie Foxtrot said:

PB, can you recommend a tourniquet for use by a dirty civi? Compact, suitable for daily carry, easy to use, won't break the bank, and most importantly: effective?    

I'll take this one 

Image result for wedding rings

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24 minutes ago, Charlie Foxtrot said:

I've listened to a couple of combat medics (NOT formal training!) They were advocates for very aggressive use of tourniquets. Especially in a mass casualty incident. They both carried two tourniquets everywhere they went - much more likely to use a tourniquet than a gun. 

Supposedly, the Las Vegas shooting could have been much, much worse except for the civi's enthusiastic use of tourniquets.

You can make argurements for more liberal use in multi casualty and combat settings. The key factor in both of those is time to definitive care. Also, no disrespect but don’t mistake combat care for how you’d want to be cared for in non-combat settings. In US Pre-Hospital care the target isn’t just “he lived” but how can we maximize the outcome for the rest of his life. Also have the advantage of not providing care while getting shot at (generally :lol:), and more timely access to definitive care. 

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16 minutes ago, Charlie Foxtrot said:

california_car_crash_second_story_1-14-1

Miss it yet, Point?  Orange County Fire Authority is prolly still going "WTF?"

I saw that, cracked me up. I think my kid was on that call. I’m sure I’ll hear the story. They had to bring LA County’s heavy wrecker/crane 103 down on mutual aid to yank it out of the building. 

BTW - there was no elevated road or freeway nearby. That came off a surface street.

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18 hours ago, SailBlueH2O said:

We were taught to use a tourniquet as a last resort as well ,Army medic 1970,  and to release tightness every 10 minutes and let a little blood flow then re-tighten...CPR compression to breaths was much much different then too....actually they seem to change that up all the time

The CPR seems to change every time I update my certification, and has done for 30 years. 

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The driver of the flying car admits to being on acid. Randumb says there are no bad trips on acid. I'm pretty sure this would qualify. Looks like he almost crossed over.

 

 

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On 1/14/2018 at 4:57 PM, Point Break said:

7D959DD6-7B1F-45F3-8C9F-28F4F008E15A.jpeg

 
Lift overcomes weight. Thrust overcomes drag. Voila!     Throw in a little Newton (F=ma) at the moment of impact, and it all works out.

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