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Lat21

Caribbean 600

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Looks like a great turnout of multihulls in next weeks C600 and the forecast is calling for winds 20-27 so should be a fast one, unlike last year. The entries with preliminary Mocra ratings:

Apollo                          Dazcat 1495                            1.250

Dazzla                          Dazcat 1400                            1.190

Elvis                             Gunboat 62                             1.476

Flow                             Gunboat 60                             1.376

French Tech Caraîbos   Multi50                                1.642

Fujin                            Bieker 53                                 1.494

Guyader

Gastronomie               Ts42 Stealth                            1.282

Morticia                      Modified Sea Cart 30              1.531

Paradox                       Orma 60 mod 63' Tri              1.603

The Multi 50 and Paradox are likely be out front, probably ahead of the big monohulls.  Fujin, Elvis and Morticia should be close together. Fujin owes Elvis a bit of time so that could be a challenge as the few times we've raced against them, we've been very close. Morticia will be sporting their new lifting foils but their smaller size in the heavier breeze and seas will make for a sporty ride. Routing currently has Fujin finishing in less than 2 days. However it turns out, our Seattle gang is looking forward to leaving the Seattle weather behind for some big breeze in warm seas.

 

 

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I think you need some weight on the rail with that forecast! I know a fat guy who'd be happy to be ballast!

 

a couple of numbers jump out at me. I'd expect Flow to be much closer to Elvis. The Multi 50 won't see much of Paradox. Mortician is f'd. 

My boat on boat prediction...

 

Paradox

Multi 50

Fujin/Elvis/Flow (even money)

Morticia (unlikely to finish due to breakage)

TS (hopefully they finish)

Dazcat(s)

 

Bummer Phaedo didn't come out. Best class in C600 history. Wish I was there!

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It will be interesting to see how Flow goes with her new daggerboards.  They have a stellar crew.  Soma, I'd love to have you but our liferaft only holds 8 and we've got the full Seattle contingent anxious to go someplace warm.

 

 

 

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Wow, the forecast is truly 'fresh to frightening'.

It going to take some balls to drive hard at night, it's been blowing old boots in the NE Carib for weeks now.

For me the winner on corrected will be Elvis or Fujin but never rule out the Frenchies!

 

Guru 600.PNG

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Am curious to see how well (or not) the TS and Dazs can hang with the big boys.  Heck of a forecast if that holds!  Looks rather nautical.  Keep it right side up all.

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What lifting boards does Morticia have fitted? Are they sailing 3 up or 4 up? I presume based on lat21's comments a liferaft is a requirement, but beyond that how do you get a Seacart 30 offshore certified?

Is the Multi 50 that much lighter than Paradox so as to drive the number up? Otherwise I agree they will have a tough time keeping with Paradox especially given the forecast.

Same issue with Flow vs. Elvis? That is quite the rating jump.

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1 hour ago, samc99us said:

Same issue with Flow vs. Elvis? That is quite the rating jump.

 

That rating delta doesn't make any sense to me. The displacement between them is +/-5%, mast height is same or close, LWL is same, beam is the same, asym c's vs asym straight (both deep). As I said, I'd score it even odds. If anything, I'd favor Flow's C's and slightly greater RM (from a purely mathematical analysis). With that said, it's a new setup for Flow (with the new daggerboards) so finding the groove and staying on the throttle will be hard (I imagine). The centerboard Gunboats basically can't fly a hull, but now the guys on Flow should be able to do it, at will, on all points of sail. That'll be a HUGE shift in how they sail the boat. The guys on Elvis are among the best, most well-oiled crews out there. They are definitely ok sailing on one hull on all points of sail. With so much time on the GC circuit and aboard Elvis, I expect them to more easily and reliably sail to the boat's potential. Neither camp is especially strong as offshore sailors. That's why Phaedo would've been an interesting addition. Oh well.

 

As for Fujin, this is a race that will play to their strengths. C-boards, T-rudders, beamy and light, a little shy on sail area (but right for the expected forecast), lots of offshore miles sailed together. If I had to bet, I'd say Fujin, Elvis, Flow.

 

It'll be great to watch, though.

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Other prediction, Paradox wins. That boat is SO fast, and so tough, and so easy to sail well. Like Fujin, she's a little shy on sail area, but that won't hurt in this event/forecast. I did 2 C600's on Paradox and we broke one cable tie on a winch handle pocket. 

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I’m on Apollo, can’t wait, forecast looks ace and a quick time should be favoured. Beers on Wednesday evening would be great :)

if your competing, be safe and fair winds. See you there for some sun ☀️ 

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I'm with Soma, if the forecast holds Paradox should smash it and win on elapsed as well as corrected, the M50 will be second.

Looking forward to following the race...!

15 hours ago, soma said:

I think you need some weight on the rail with that forecast! I know a fat guy who'd be happy to be ballast!

 

a couple of numbers jump out at me. I'd expect Flow to be much closer to Elvis. The Multi 50 won't see much of Paradox. Mortician is f'd. 

My boat on boat prediction...

 

Paradox

Multi 50

Fujin/Elvis/Flow (even money)

Morticia (unlikely to finish due to breakage)

TS (hopefully they finish)

Dazcat(s)

 

Bummer Phaedo didn't come out. Best class in C600 history. Wish I was there!

 

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Don't be too quick to right off the Morticia boys. They are tough, experienced sailors with plenty of brains trust and know how on board. The c foil and t rudder mods that have been done to the boat are for this sort of forecast. My opinion is knowing these guys and their capability, so long as it all holds up they will challenge the front runners, maybe even show a couple the way. Go Shaun and team Morticia. 

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If Morticia is doing well in this forcast and company and with that rating - I will be very impressed..... What about mast and sail area is that normal SC30 or modified?

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Yeah, I've sailed on and against SC30's. Awesome, tough little boats. I'm sure the boys are top notch sailors but...I expect that the sea state will park them up. Certainly upwind from Saba to St. Barths will SUCK for them. The hot reaches will also be spooky, even with c-boards and t-rudders. 

 

This is going to be a great event!

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Mortica has a very cool sail inventory. Yes, they will have their hands full but they are very capable guys. My hats off to them. I've Ocean raced them in my previous 30 foot Grainger cat in 25 knots and they struggled, in fact we blew them away in those conditions, however Mortica is a very different boat now and modified and set up for such conditions now as they knew it was her weakness. When i sold my Grainger 30 cat I retired from ocean racing 30 foot multis :-) I'm enjoying the water line length of a 50 footer these days.

 

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Soma,

regarding the delta between Elvis and Flow ..I have had a look at the numbers and they seem broadly correct.The main reasons for Elvis being quicker are:

Elvis is 2383 kgs(or 15.7%) lighter than Flow,
800mm longer hulls,
has 18sqm(or 10.7%) more main
and 6 sqm(or 9.5%) more jib.

Flow does however have 34sqm(or 8.9%0)more spinnaker are than Elvis, but spinnakers are relatively cheap in the mocra rating.

 

Regards

Wombat

 

 

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We had an awesome reach next to Morticia out to blowing rock and back in last years Heineken. It was blowing 20 and we were doing 22+ a few boat lengths apart. That was pretty flat water and when they were on their old foils. We pulled ahead but it was very close. Fun times.

 

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