bigrpowr

Sydney To Hobart 2018

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so i haven't seen the forecast yet, i'm figuring it'll favor the 50 somethings again.

Will Sandy let Ricko on the boat .

Will BJ increase RM to have a chance at the other big boys?

Will R88 come back for a chance at glory ?

Will LB pilot the Big C to a respectable 3rd place?

so many questions with the race just 10 months away !!

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3 minutes ago, Jethrow said:

Wild Oats isn't racing so the race has been cancelled by the TV sponsor! :lol:

time to pack it up then ! LB will be sad though.

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Ricko will almost certainly be on the boat. Sandy is quite invested in his ongoing participation.

Does Wild Oats XI compete in any other races besides the Hobart?

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8 hours ago, Svanen said:

Ricko will almost certainly be on the boat. Sandy is quite invested in his ongoing participation.

Does Wild Oats XI compete in any other races besides the Hobart?

I thought Oats was sold and the crew were told that it was the last trip south?

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15 minutes ago, Swanno said:

I thought Oats was sold and the crew were told that it was the last trip south?

Rumour was that was to be the last one. Probably why Richo was so shitty. 

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8 hours ago, Svanen said:

Ricko will almost certainly be on the boat. Sandy is quite invested in his ongoing participation.

Does Wild Oats XI compete in any other races besides the Hobart?

Over the years it's done all the major east coast races + numerous HI race weeks. Did one maxi World titles & one transpacific too. Being home at Xmas to defend the SH kinda makes OS trips hard.

If it was absent from Woolwich surely keen Sydneysiders would have let us know. 

Disney would be the most likely buyer I could think of, they changed the TP rules to allow canters, prob others though. 

 

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would the Oatlys sell the boat and bail from the comp?

or would they invest in a faster, sleeker boat and hold the cup for another 20-15 years...

oooohhhhhh

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I don't think Sandy has the same passion for it as Bob did but the Sandys son is pretty keen. 

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5 hours ago, SCANAS said:

I don't think Sandy has the same passion for it as Bob did but the Sandys son is pretty keen. 

it would really suck to see WOXI retired. its been the center piece of my entertainment during the holiday season.

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Fear not. Good chance at least 1 more tilt with Oatleys & sure it'll be used if sold. 

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On 2/21/2018 at 1:44 PM, bigrpowr said:

so i haven't seen the forecast yet, i'm figuring it'll favor the 50 somethings again.

Will Sandy let Ricko on the boat .

Will BJ increase RM to have a chance at the other big boys?

Will R88 come back for a chance at glory ?

Will LB pilot the Big C to a respectable 3rd place?

so many questions with the race just 10 months away !!

Whats the weather doing?

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Ok...so here's the challenge.

Your goal is to win the S2H (on handicap - the real race!)

You have a very comfortable budget.

You have to buy an existing yacht (not build a new one) from anywhere in the world.

Now....what do you buy & why?

Serious kudos to the best (serious) answer........

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Couta said:

Ok...so here's the challenge.

Your goal is to win the S2H (on handicap - the real race!)

You have a very comfortable budget.

You have to buy an existing yacht (not build a new one) from anywhere in the world.

Now....what do you buy & why?

Serious kudos to the best (serious) answer........

 

 

Cookson 50. I just love those boats. 

I reckon I'd do ok with my existing ride if the conditions were like last year. But any sustained light air and I'd be fucked.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, shaggybaxter said:

Cookson 50. I just love those boats. 

I reckon I'd do ok with my existing ride if the conditions were like last year. But any sustained light air and I'd be fucked.

 

 

My pick too!

Or Envy Scooters (ex Itchy Bum ex Shogun V, ex Azzurra) with a larger rudder.  That boat is just a life support system for spinnakers.

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1 hour ago, Recidivist said:

My pick too!

Or Envy Scooters (ex Itchy Bum ex Shogun V, ex Azzurra) with a larger rudder.  That boat is just a life support system for spinnakers.

+100

 

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Cookson 50 with the keel pin axis mod that Privateer has along with a longer keel and lighter bulb to keep RM the same but be able to go downwind with the increasingly light 52s. And a set of extremely high line speed carbon hydraulic winches with remote controls. 

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2 hours ago, huwp said:

Could you buy a multi and take that or is the forecast no good ?

rumor has it the queen mary will be racing the fleet, hopefully they add a 4th start line for them in the rear .

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Looking at winners of the last few years it's a mixed bag, Wild Rose to Giacomo, so I guess the Cookson 50 sits in the middle nicely so would be a safe bet. Or buy the latest Ichi Ban, he must be selling it soon...?

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5 hours ago, Couta said:

Ok...so here's the challenge.

Your goal is to win the S2H (on handicap - the real race!)

You have a very comfortable budget.

You have to buy an existing yacht (not build a new one) from anywhere in the world.

Now....what do you buy & why?

Serious kudos to the best (serious) answer........

Does it have to be on the market?

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12 hours ago, Couta said:

Ok...so here's the challenge.

Your goal is to win the S2H (on handicap - the real race!)

You have a very comfortable budget.

You have to buy an existing yacht (not build a new one) from anywhere in the world.

Now....what do you buy & why?

Serious kudos to the best (serious) answer........

 

 

Ichi Ban

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some good responses - Cookson 50 and TP/Pac 52's getting a solid run....

What about the idea that the 50 - 52 ft range gets a little crowded, so it's more competitive and reduces the chance of a win. Why not consider something in the 60-70ft space where there is less competition? Looks like Sean Langman might be doing that(??)

On that basis the R/P 63 (Loki/Limit) might be a consideration..

Thoughts?

 

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He's cutting off the amas, fitting a keel a canting deck & entering the Orma60. Same builder who rebuilt Wild Thing in 2012 is doing the work. 

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6 hours ago, Couta said:

On that basis the R/P 63 (Loki/Limit) might be a consideration..

A shame the RP63/66's of Loki, WOX and Alive/BJ1 never lined up against each other in a S2H at the same time and in conditions up their alley. Would have been good to watch and one of nicest looking boats going.

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4 hours ago, SCANAS said:

He's cutting off the amas, fitting a keel a canting deck & entering the Orma60. Same builder who rebuilt Wild Thing in 2012 is doing the work. 

The X-wing fighter concept from years ago? I'll believe it when I see it.... I'll happily eat my words if it does happen.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

A shame the RP63/66's of Loki, WOX and Alive/BJ1 never lined up against each other in a S2H at the same time and in conditions up their alley. Would have been good to watch and one of nicest looking boats going.

2008.... It was a 3 way match race, and a flat out drag race from Tasman Island to the finish.

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45 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Thanks Jason.. a year I was buried on other side of the orange. I see Limit, Alive/BJ1 and Loki in a bunch 3 or so hours behind WOXI but no RP66 WOX?

 

45 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Thanks Jason.. a year I was buried on other side of the orange. I see Limit, Alive/BJ1 and Loki in a bunch 3 or so hours behind WOXI but no RP66 WOX?

No worries. IIRC the Oats 66 has only ever been to Hobart once (this year just gone).

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I think RAGAMUFFIN 100 will get over the line 1st if whitty is still sailing ,he has learned/improving a lot since the start of the Volvo learning from

the big boys now !!!!!! compared to the start also the mistakes they made sailing Rags's when launched and at Hammo.

Where do think Richo would be if he was skippering a Volvo yacht ???

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On ‎2‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 8:45 AM, Couta said:

Ok...so here's the challenge.

Your goal is to win the S2H (on handicap - the real race!)

You have a very comfortable budget.

You have to buy an existing yacht (not build a new one) from anywhere in the world.

Now....what do you buy & why?

Serious kudos to the best (serious) answer........

 

 

Going with a 30 footer that rates 0.8500 IRC because after last year we are due for the mother of all blow homes!

Defiance (2).jpg

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BTW Limit RP 63 is one of the better buys floating around at the moment.

Now on West Coast of States for sale.

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3 minutes ago, lydia said:

Going with a 30 footer that rates 0.8500 IRC because after last year we are due for the mother of all blow homes!

Defiance (2).jpg

When are try outs? 

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1 hour ago, lydia said:

Going with a 30 footer that rates 0.8500 IRC because after last year we are due for the mother of all blow homes!

Defiance (2).jpg

 

1 hour ago, SCANAS said:

When are try outs? 

 

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On 23/02/2018 at 9:45 AM, Couta said:

Ok...so here's the challenge.

Your goal is to win the S2H (on handicap - the real race!)

You have a very comfortable budget.

You have to buy an existing yacht (not build a new one) from anywhere in the world.

Now....what do you buy & why?

Serious kudos to the best (serious) answer........

 

 

Never done one. Hopefully never will.

I have a medical condition that prevents me sitting on a  leg and arse numbing toerail getting  hit in the face by buckets of cold water thrown on me for days on end. I think the technical medical term is called commonsense. 

But it’s still interesting. 

The beauty of your well sorted ratings system (despite some whingers) is that there has been such a variety of winners. WOXI one day Love n War the next. Every well sailed (and lucky) dog has had its day. With the unpredictability of the weather it makes it a bit of a lottery and thus a bit of fun and keeps you mugs coming back for more. 

Anything on its day can win. 

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3 hours ago, lydia said:

Going with a 30 footer that rates 0.8500 IRC because after last year we are due for the mother of all blow homes!

Defiance (2).jpg

Please pretty please tell me you’re entering Defiance Lydia.

That would be something pretty special.

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34 minutes ago, shaggybaxter said:

Please pretty please tell me you’re entering Defiance Lydia.

That would be something pretty special.

 

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48 minutes ago, LionIsland said:

Never done one. Hopefully never will.

I have a medical condition that prevents me sitting on a  leg and arse numbing toerail getting  hit in the face by buckets of cold water thrown on me for days on end. I think the technical medical term is called commonsense. 

But it’s still interesting. 

The beauty of your well sorted ratings system (despite some whingers) is that there has been such a variety of winners. WOXI one day Love n War the next. Every well sailed (and lucky) dog has had its day. With the unpredictability of the weather it makes it a bit of a lottery and thus a bit of fun and keeps you mugs coming back for more. 

Anything on its day can win. 

Yeah then all you need is a rating bandit & 10 brand new sails & a gun pro (cough semi-pro$) crew & a weather window. 

2017 Brand New crack TP52

2016 VO70 in record breaking weather  

2015 Multiple race winner TP52 + new sails

2014 Heavily optimised, Multiple winner Farr43, Syd 38 rig, farr40od jibs, 4 new kites + new zero & noakes bottom job + good inventory 

2013 Cookson 50

2012 RP 100' Supermaxi 

 

Balance on their 2015 win:

Balance competed with an inventory of 15 sails for this year’s RSHYR, of which the crew hoisted 12 of the 15 (they never used the storm trysail, storm jib or #5). Nine of the 12 sails used during the race were Ullman Sails, including the J1 light, offshore 3.5 jib, genoa staysail, spinnaker staysail, 1A+ spinnaker, 2A, and masthead code zero. The team also used an Ullman Sails FiberPath Phantom mainsail, which was on its second Hobart after being used in the 2014 race, and an 18-month-old 4A spinnaker.

 

& Roger (RIP) explaining his 2014 sail inventory & prep: 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, PIL007 said:

That is all time terrible.... 

he certainly shouldn't give up his day job

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16 hours ago, spiggie said:

Where do think Richo would be if he was skippering a Volvo yacht ???

Spending a lot of time at the hairdresser getting it waterproofed.

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10 hours ago, SCANAS said:

Yeah then all you need is a rating bandit & 10 brand new sails & a gun pro (cough semi-pro$) crew & a weather window. 

Balance on their 2015 win:

Balance competed with an inventory of 15 sails for this year’s RSHYR, of which the crew hoisted 12 of the 15 (they never used the storm trysail, storm jib or #5). Nine of the 12 sails used during the race were Ullman Sails, including the J1 light, offshore 3.5 jib, genoa staysail, spinnaker staysail, 1A+ spinnaker, 2A, and masthead code zero. The team also used an Ullman Sails FiberPath Phantom mainsail, which was on its second Hobart after being used in the 2014 race, and an 18-month-old 4A spinnaker.

2015 was oh-so-close to not being Balance, don't forget.

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Not sure Dunc, 2015 Results show Balance won by 2.5hrs on corrected time over the JPK10.80. 

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Scanas, you are only new to this I know, but Teasing Machine got out to a 13 hour lead at one point only to loose the lot after Tasman with the JPK suffering a similar fate.

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Shaggy, LB & I are current B2K Manly to Tangalooma race record holders, we cleaned up every division. 

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12 hours ago, SCANAS said:

Yeah then all you need is a rating bandit & 10 brand new sails & a gun pro (cough semi-pro$) crew & a weather window. 

2017 Brand New crack TP52

2016 VO70 in record breaking weather  

2015 Multiple race winner TP52 + new sails

2014 Heavily optimised, Multiple winner Farr43, Syd 38 rig, farr40od jibs, 4 new kites + new zero & noakes bottom job + good inventory 

2013 Cookson 50

2012 RP 100' Supermaxi 

 

Balance on their 2015 win:

Balance competed with an inventory of 15 sails for this year’s RSHYR, of which the crew hoisted 12 of the 15 (they never used the storm trysail, storm jib or #5). Nine of the 12 sails used during the race were Ullman Sails, including the J1 light, offshore 3.5 jib, genoa staysail, spinnaker staysail, 1A+ spinnaker, 2A, and masthead code zero. The team also used an Ullman Sails FiberPath Phantom mainsail, which was on its second Hobart after being used in the 2014 race, and an 18-month-old 4A spinnaker.

 

& Roger (RIP) explaining his 2014 sail inventory & prep: 

 

 

 

I guess a MH0 is a must have sail for ocean races these days

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8 minutes ago, hoppy said:

I guess a MH0 is a must have sail for ocean races these days

If it’s an a modern non overlapping rig...yes obviously

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1 hour ago, SCANAS said:

Not sure Dunc, 2015 Results show Balance won by 2.5hrs on corrected time over the JPK10.80. 

yeh - but the JPK (and us) sat in the river for many more hours than that.  Swings and roundabouts.

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I’m into multis however I can secretly hide behind my alias on here and quietly admit my favourite inshore mono (which I’ve raced on in the long distant past though not relevant here) is an Adams 10 and my favourite offshore mono is Adams 13,14 or 15. That would be my pick. Beautiful sleek things (did I actually say that out loud??) that slice upwind and charge off the breeze. 

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Anyone here read "Moneyball"? That's the kind of analysis I'm looking for. A Boat that has the certificate and the water line length that puts it at risk of being on the podium - based on track records. I want the one that "shoulda won"

So you people who follow the race closely, know your boats, crews and conditions for the races - I'm keen to hear your analysis. I agree the Cookson 50 has to be part of the equation - and the Hicko interview, while self deprecating was also insightful....I agree that even defiance could be a challenger (but it'd still be an outsider!). Seriously crunch the numbers, look at the competition and give us your best bet!

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The bloke who has probably spent as much time as all of us put together "crunching the numbers" has entered a both a (hopefully) bulletproof 60' er & a TP for about the last 3 years.  Not sure what your budget is but you could possibly add a good upwind 30 - 35'er to these 2,  to cover an upwind year which goes NE on the 3rd day.  Oh & you might want to throw a few bucks at the weather man to help you choose.

I've done over 20 of these things & had results from the front to the back on both line & handicap with some of the dud results being on boats that should have been up there & some great results on boats that had little chance when we left Sydney.

 

TUBBY

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17 hours ago, Gorn FRANTIC!! said:

 

Great band... love Jay and the Docter seen them many times

 

7 hours ago, TUBBY said:

The bloke who has probably spent as much time as all of us put together "crunching the numbers" has entered a both a (hopefully) bulletproof 60' er & a TP for about the last 3 years.  Not sure what your budget is but you could possibly add a good upwind 30 - 35'er to these 2,  to cover an upwind year which goes NE on the 3rd day.  Oh & you might want to throw a few bucks at the weather man to help you choose.

I've done over 20 of these things & had results from the front to the back on both line & handicap with some of the dud results being on boats that should have been up there & some great results on boats that had little chance when we left Sydney.

 

TUBBY

Good point Tubby

Matt Allen has the resources and the knowledge so look no further than his choices to answer this question

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10 hours ago, Couta said:

Anyone here read "Moneyball"? That's the kind of analysis I'm looking for. A Boat that has the certificate and the water line length that puts it at risk of being on the podium - based on track records. I want the one that "shoulda won"

So you people who follow the race closely, know your boats, crews and conditions for the races - I'm keen to hear your analysis. I agree the Cookson 50 has to be part of the equation - and the Hicko interview, while self deprecating was also insightful....I agree that even defiance could be a challenger (but it'd still be an outsider!). Seriously crunch the numbers, look at the competition and give us your best bet!

Couta, flattering but credit where credit is due, I would have to displace Duncan here first.

Although he had the benefit the odd blow home in other races.

 

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11 hours ago, Couta said:

Anyone here read "Moneyball"? That's the kind of analysis I'm looking for. A Boat that has the certificate and the water line length that puts it at risk of being on the podium - based on track records. I want the one that "shoulda won"

So you people who follow the race closely, know your boats, crews and conditions for the races - I'm keen to hear your analysis. I agree the Cookson 50 has to be part of the equation - and the Hicko interview, while self deprecating was also insightful....I agree that even defiance could be a challenger (but it'd still be an outsider!). Seriously crunch the numbers, look at the competition and give us your best bet!

you're never going to be able to pick one boat due to the weather gods.

I'd be selecting a top boat in some speed bands. top end, 50+ft, 40-50ft, bottom end.

The fast 50's (TP52 etc) seem to currently be on the pace to get into the river at the right time in 'normal' conditions. You don't want to be betting on something that's likely to be in storm bay in the late afternoon or night.

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I don’t think you would want anything under 45ft. The Chutzpah program seems to have proved that 40ft just can’t go quick enough to claw back the time lost going upwind, and loses out reaching. And I say that with the greatest respect for the Chutzpah guys who sail that boat to its potential.

The days of the 30ft blow home are most likely passed. I know Azzuro came close a few years ago, but the newer boats are now too fast and light for the Defiances to make up the time. Possibly if we had a 1984 style demolition derby - say the first 48 hours 35 - 40 knots on the snout - followed by a decent northerly, they might get up Bradbury style.

So 50ft is probably your start point. Very light, very strong and a good all rounder, I.e. not optimised too far into one corner of the box.

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There will be someone keen to buy Oats I would have thought? Given their performance and staying so close to Comanche in those conditions. Early days. Agree that if Chutzpah couldn't win in those conditions then can't see them winning going forward. There will be more new 50's come I would think as Ichi Ban seems to be perfect it seems? 

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29 minutes ago, greasy al said:

I don’t think you would want anything under 45ft. The Chutzpah program seems to have proved that 40ft just can’t go quick enough to claw back the time lost going upwind, and loses out reaching. And I say that with the greatest respect for the Chutzpah guys who sail that boat to its potential.

I reckon Chutzpah has gone too far in the design/rating corner

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33 minutes ago, greasy al said:

I don’t think you would want anything under 45ft. The Chutzpah program seems to have proved that 40ft just can’t go quick enough to claw back the time lost going upwind, and loses out reaching. And I say that with the greatest respect for the Chutzpah guys who sail that boat to its potential.

The days of the 30ft blow home are most likely passed. I know Azzuro came close a few years ago, but the newer boats are now too fast and light for the Defiances to make up the time. Possibly if we had a 1984 style demolition derby - say the first 48 hours 35 - 40 knots on the snout - followed by a decent northerly, they might get up Bradbury style.

So 50ft is probably your start point. Very light, very strong and a good all rounder, I.e. not optimised too far into one corner of the box.

Don't forget we're only talking IRC here... ORCi has mixed things up a little more, but even that seems to be dominated by the 50's

2017 - Quest/Balance (TP52, downwind slide)

2016 - UBOX (Cookson 50)

2015 - Azzurro (S&S 34, Balance an hour behind)

2014 - Ariel (First 40). Div 3/4 took the silverware

2013 - Victoire (Cookson 50)

2012 - Black Jack (RP66)

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44 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

There will be someone keen to buy Oats I would have thought? Given their performance and staying so close to Comanche in those conditions. Early days. Agree that if Chutzpah couldn't win in those conditions then can't see them winning going forward. There will be more new 50's come I would think as Ichi Ban seems to be perfect it seems? 

you gotta assume oats would go fast , she was faster than C , the only question now is C's decision making towards the end . WOXI was very impressive down the stretch .

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S2H IRC results going back a little further.....

2008 - Quest 1st (TP 52)

2009 - Ran 1st  (JV 72)

2010 - Secret Mens 3.5 1st (RP 55)

2011- Loki 1st (RP63) Jazz 4th (canting Cookson 50) 

2012 - Wild Oats 1st - Loki 2nd , Jazz made 4th again 

Interesting to note - Loki never beat Limit over the line in the S2H...and won when Limit didn't compete...

Could Limit be a dark horse? Or has the development of TP52's overtaken her? Also, if rolling the dice (its the S2H after all!) would adding another 50 footish boat to the fleet increase your individual chances of winning, given the number of players in this space? would you be better off (on average) going into a 60-70ft size that would likely separate you from the 50 foot pack?

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7 hours ago, Couta said:

S2H IRC results going back a little further.....

2008 - Quest 1st (TP 52)

2009 - Ran 1st  (JV 72)

2010 - Secret Mens 3.5 1st (RP 55)

2011- Loki 1st (RP63) Jazz 4th (canting Cookson 50) 

2012 - Wild Oats 1st - Loki 2nd , Jazz made 4th again 

Interesting to note - Loki never beat Limit over the line in the S2H...and won when Limit didn't compete...

Could Limit be a dark horse? Or has the development of TP52's overtaken her? Also, if rolling the dice (its the S2H after all!) would adding another 50 footish boat to the fleet increase your individual chances of winning, given the number of players in this space? would you be better off (on average) going into a 60-70ft size that would likely separate you from the 50 foot pack?

I guess that's the rationale behind Matt Allens Carkeek 60 that he enters in the Hobart every year as well as his TP52 du jour. 

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6 hours ago, Last Post said:

I guess that's the rationale behind Matt Allens Carkeek 60 that he enters in the Hobart every year as well as his TP52 du jour. 

Perhaps he should find an old classic racer and throw lots of money at it to cover the other end of the race conditions.

If you had a shitload of money to spend on a "small"old boat to totally modernise it whilst taking advantage of the age allowance to give you a chance of winning in a slow race, like Wild Rose did, what would you buy?

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Couta

Limit now Aszhou  was listed at USD 685K

Loki now listed with Riechel Pugh brokerage at AUD $2.0m

Limit was much better and nicer built than Loki IMHO

detailing was a lot better as well.

 

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1 hour ago, hoppy said:

Perhaps he should find an old classic racer and throw lots of money at it to cover the other end of the race conditions.

If you had a shitload of money to spend on a "small"old boat to totally modernise it whilst taking advantage of the age allowance to give you a chance of winning in a slow race, like Wild Rose did, what would you buy?

That's Easy. 

Wild Rose

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25 minutes ago, shaggybaxter said:

Hookers and blow definitely, enough to last 5 days. Maybe a big subwoofer too.

was that your plan for Fusion? No wonder PIL wants to sail with you.

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6 minutes ago, lydia said:

Couta

Limit now Aszhou  was listed at USD 685K

Loki now listed with Riechel Pugh brokerage at AUD $2.0m

Limit was much better and nicer built than Loki IMHO

detailing was a lot better as well.

 

Fuck the rating. Sell your fleet & buy this! 

http://www.ybw.com/boats-for-sale/6219150?currency=

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27 minutes ago, lydia said:

Couta

Limit now Aszhou  was listed at USD 685K

Loki now listed with Riechel Pugh brokerage at AUD $2.0m

Limit was much better and nicer built than Loki IMHO

detailing was a lot better as well.

 

Link please

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