bigrpowr

Sydney To Hobart 2018

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

Betcha he wasn't game doing that until they passed Ichi.

Itchy would have been lucky not to run aground on it!

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Voodoo problems? Was showing 0.4 knot boat speed on last tracker update. Now moving, but headed 118??

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

I'm laughing.

Happy for you, LOL. I'm crying inside after what happened to Patriot. Time for a serious ingress of Red mate.

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2 hours ago, DickDastardly said:

Met the crew up at Hammo, really lovely guys.  They eat official army rations all the way...

And while the Australian Army sail to Hobart where are the Australian Navy? 

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Some pre-race thoughts just launched...like Matt fearful of the 60's with just cause, but did a fuckin splendid job along with many 50's not letting them get away until later in the day. He needs to be more worried about the Privateer boys on that Cookson 50...they are punching well above their weight.

 

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1 hour ago, SPORTSCAR said:

BUGGER!

Patriot out with a broken rudder. Heartbroken for my wife and for the whole Patriot team, on and off the boat, after so much good work.

Safe return guys.

 

Ah shit!  Commiserations to the Patriot team - my son has spent the last many months trying to get Zen ready, only to have something go bad that would have gone bad in a warmup race, if only they'd had the chance to do one of those!

I've retired from a Hobart also - it's not a small club ...<_<

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18 minutes ago, overlay said:

Yes, Stored in diesel

And originally stored for future use by plants and dinasour bits that the world is hooked on as my left leaning green daughter tells me. I then say, "so your IPhone is made out of wood and you charge it using a waterwheel?" The conversation usually stops then and we talk about her not wanting a stepmother the same age as her younger sister. I only come to SA hoping to win the occasional debate.

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3 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

Ah shit!  Commiserations to the Patriot team - my son has spent the last many months trying to get Zen ready, only to have something go bad that would have gone bad in a warmup race, if only they'd had the chance to do one of those!

I've retired from a Hobart also - it's not a small club ...<_<

Can I ask what it was on Zen? Website says rig issues?

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1 minute ago, mezaire said:

Can I ask what it was on Zen? Website says rig issues?

Appears the masthead box was sawing it's way down the vertical bit.

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7 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

Ah shit!  Commiserations to the Patriot team - my son has spent the last many months trying to get Zen ready, only to have something go bad that would have gone bad in a warmup race, if only they'd had the chance to do one of those!

I've retired from a Hobart also - it's not a small club ...<_<

Thanks mate, appreciate the sentiments. I'm shore based this time so I'm gutted for Mrs S and the whole team. They had done so well in their lead up races and the owners prep was meticulous. The ocean is a cruel bitch.

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To maybe slant the spotlight away from the big pricks ...check out Celestial the TP52 keeping Ichi and Hollywood honest and which has @Potter on board from the UK in his first S2H believe it or not and his missus is on WOX. Bit of family competition synergy there with Voodoo's chief twerker having his missus also onboard WOX.

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Just now, SPORTSCAR said:

The ocean is a cruel bitch.

Indeed.  I have finally reached a place where I can accept shit luck as something that just happens.  I'm a slow learner - it only took 200K sea miles to come to that realisation!

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13 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

Appears the masthead box was sawing it's way down the vertical bit.

Medcup boats only have a single spinnaker halyard so maybe the offshore upgrade didn't quite go to plan...  They did an awesome job just to get it to the start line - was always a risk that the untried bits would be vunerable.    Bummer for the Zens.

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8 minutes ago, SPORTSCAR said:

They had done so well in their lead up races and the owners prep was meticulous. The ocean is a cruel bitch.

Mate if there is any consolation if God has already punched your damage ticket, the pain of it occuring seems to rise proportionally to how far down the race track it happens.

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9 minutes ago, Omer said:

Can somebody explain what DTG and DTL  are.

Distance to Go or Distance to Finish. Distance to Leader. Both based on GPS positions using some notional waypoints down the shortest course as shown, so not reality which is sailed/to be sailed miles.

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1 hour ago, SPORTSCAR said:

Box must have had his first dump

 

Ewwwww!

I hope he never sailed on Helsall2!  I've walked on that transom! 

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17 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

To maybe slant the spotlight away from the big pricks ...check out Celestial the TP52 keeping Ichi and Hollywood honest and which has @Potter on board from the UK in his first S2H believe it or not and his missus is on WOX. Bit of family competition synergy there with Voodoo's chief twerker having his missus also onboard WOX.

Know a couple of the Celestial guys - they go hard and a new keel and rudder has made a big difference downwind.

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Don't get why the Indian gybed inshore, they've now gybed back.  Chickened out on a big lift I guess but it's looking very light in where they are and all the models say more pressure out wide.

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5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Distance to Go or Distance to Finish. Distance to Leader. Both based on GPS positions using some notional waypoints down the course, so not reality.

Comanche is clearly ahead of Woxi  with a negative DTL whereas woxi is shown to have zero DTL. Thats where i got confused.

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4 minutes ago, Omer said:

Comanche is clearly ahead of Woxi  with a negative DTL whereas woxi is shown to have zero DTL. Thats where i got confused.

Emphasis on these words for boats closest to the Rhumb Line used by the tracker.

14 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

..based on GPS positions using some notional waypoints down the shortest course as shown, so not reality which is sailed/to be sailed miles.

 

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5 minutes ago, DickDastardly said:

Know a couple of the Celestial guys - they go hard and a new keel and rudder has made a big difference downwind.

They are indeed doing better than I would have expected given the age of the boat!  good on em!  Actually, even "old" Tp52s seem to be quite competitive!

I didn't see where Itchybum  got her break - I assume she just did some magic and avoided the glassout in the harbour - did anyone notice?  Good luck or good management?  

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If you are posted as First, then accompanying that data your DTL will be 0.00 - because for that moment in time you are La Grande Fromage (LGF)

For those who are NOT First (or LGF) then accompanying data will show as DTL (X.XX) and other useful numbers.

Go from there Omer, when you have a tight fleet but lots of lateral separation then take all published data with a pinch of salt - they will see/saw widely as each boat changes their course speed and heading (aka VMG) which in turn changes their fortunes (Heros or zeros).

For Handicap, wait until scheds so that data used is like for like (or the best that can be determined).

 

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14 minutes ago, Omer said:

Comanche is clearly ahead of Woxi  with a negative DTL whereas woxi is shown to have zero DTL. Thats where i got confused.

Looking at the wrong Comanche? The one with the minus DTL is the track of number #1 from last year. The current one is #4 and some 8 nm behind leader WOXI who is closest to the Rhumbline in the lead pack.

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18 minutes ago, DickDastardly said:

Don't get why the Indian gybed inshore, they've now gybed back.  Chickened out on a big lift I guess but it's looking very light in where they are and all the models say more pressure out wide.

I think that is a half way bet. Not wanting to start a Nav heirarchy discussion in expertise for this race but I think Capey on IT just gave SciFi on the Indian a quick lesson and SciFi folded.

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8 minutes ago, Marty6 said:

Looking at the wrong Comanche? The one with the minus DTL is the track of number #1 from last year. The current one is #4 and some 8 nm behind leader WOXI who is closest to the Rhumbline in the lead pack.

Thanks Marty. Clearly i was looking at the wrong Comanche.  It is a bit confusing to have two of them though. I did not notice the 2017  date.

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33 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

Actually, even "old" Tp52s seem to be quite competitive!

Yes. The old Ichi now Envy Scooters with its rating advantage was giving the real Ichi a lot of grief earlier on today. That nightmare might come back for Matt Allen.

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Trumpcard, the Van de Stadt 44 is having fun in IRC 4. 

Unlimited looking good in IRC3.

 

 

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I wonder if right about now all the naviguessers are feeling uncomfortable watching the rhumb line get further away?? I know its for all the right reasons etc, still feels uncomfortable to me. 

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1 minute ago, Maw said:

Trumpcard, the Van de Stadt 44 is having fun in IRC 4. 

@SCANAS and lads on that old shitter are having a hoot of a time rolling gunwhale to gunwhale. Hope they read up on the chapter titled "Get Them at Night" to keep it going. 

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32 minutes ago, Maw said:

I wonder if right about now all the naviguessers are feeling uncomfortable watching the rhumb line get further away?? I know its for all the right reasons etc, still feels uncomfortable to me. 

You would be horrified then watching Black Jack (the V70) a few years ago going via Dunedin to avoid a soft spot and chalking up a extra million miles (the year Comanche on first outing got bogged and WOXI got through?) but BJ still finished in a respectable but forgettable position. 

It's called "weather routing", providing you have the boat speed and know the numbers to take real advantage of them.

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2 hours ago, inebriated said:

the new bowsprit snapped off hey

sad to see witty and the crew go through such a tough year with both campaigns

I can't believe no one has posted this yet - "The one the front fell off?"

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7 minutes ago, Der_Dude said:

Can somebody explain, why Comanche has come back West? Too much separation?

Hint. Try reading upthread first even for just the last hour before posting lazy shit.

54 minutes ago, DickDastardly said:

Don't get why the Indian gybed inshore, they've now gybed back.  Chickened out on a big lift I guess but it's looking very light in where they are and all the models say more pressure out wide.

 

39 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I think that is a half way bet. Not wanting to start a Nav heirarchy discussion in expertise for this race but I think Capey on IT just gave SciFi on the Indian a quick lesson and SciFi folded.

 

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Read that. Was wondering about the seemingly better  pressure out west too. Why play follow the leader into conditions  that favor the other boat? Because the pressure didn't materialize?

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Those at the front end with $ will now be downloading latest ACCESS model gribs and pondering Himawari geostationary satelight IR pictures to determine their destiny through and other side of this first transition. Very stressful time. Watch this space.

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So we have Alive, WOX, and Appliances lined up neatly across the racetrack with enough separation to make it interesting. I'm heading for a mucho grande latte , this's gunna take a while. 

 

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49 minutes ago, Maw said:

So we have Alive, WOX, and Appliances lined up neatly across the racetrack with enough separation to make it interesting.

You forget the Voodoo just off the pace slightly. As for current positions Villa on WOXI and particularly Will Oxley on Ichi, take a bow, masterclass S2H navigation.

Current forecast indicates the transition has gone up in smoke, they will be having a decent N/NE airflow for Gabo approach and well into Bass Strait. That explains a lot Comanche driving back to the Rhumb Line. All those extra miles sailed and going quick just got evaporated by God.

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Jack, if you add in Voodoo, we have to squeeze in Prospector.

A single Mills surrounded by Reichel Pughs, like leopards stalking a cheetah. 

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10 minutes ago, Maw said:

Jack, if you add in Voodoo, we have to squeeze in Prospector.

A single Mills surrounded by Reichel Pughs, like leopards stalking a cheetah. 

True ..I just felt guilty about seeing Couta being sliced and reconciling that with Ichi being kissed on the dick with transition going up in smoke.

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18 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Current forecast just in indicates the transition has gone up in smoke, they will be having a decent N/NE airflow for Gabo approach and well into Bass Strait. That explains a lot Comanche driving back to the Rhumb Line. All those extra miles sailed and going quick just got evaporated by God.

what forecast is that?

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27 minutes ago, us7070 said:

what forecast is that?

This, noting without real time data from each boat, couch potatoes like me are just potatoes. 

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Those at the front end with $ will now be downloading latest ACCESS model gribs and pondering Himawari geostationary satelight IR pictures to determine their destiny through and other side of this first transition. Very stressful time. Watch this space.

 

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1 hour ago, Der_Dude said:

Read that. Was wondering about the seemingly better  pressure out west too. Why play follow the leader into conditions  that favor the other boat? Because the pressure didn't materialize?

Comparative pressure at any one time slice is irelevant. The transition just disappeared with little warning leaving no advantage being east. Time to cut your loses and get back to the Rhumb Line quick smart. Arguably InfoTrack saw it happening before the Indian.

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you could throw a blanket over the 4 maxis. All the pre race hype was right - everyone's worked on their weaknesses and these boats are fairly level now. Definitely will come down to the derwent.

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25 minutes ago, Tropical Madness said:

you could throw a blanket over the 4 maxis. All the pre race hype was right - everyone's worked on their weaknesses and these boats are fairly level now. Definitely will come down to the derwent.

That's nonsense, it is varied conditions that are the leveler. In that vein look at distances sailed to date and by who under what conditions that have transpired and now forecast. Arguably the middle tier 100' is now tied up in Sydney and crew are on the drink. The extremes now left have each a few hurdles for and against well before the last hurrah in the Derwent from this restart.

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8 minutes ago, Colomba said:

Go Comanche!

Comanche getting a lesson in pyhsics and VMG running..! Oats beating Comanche easily at the moment

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1 minute ago, terrafirma said:

Comanche getting a lesson in pyhsics and VMG running..! Oats beating Comanche easily at the moment

We're watching different races.  Comanche is running Oats down and will be in front in two hours.  NASCAR tracks lead changes and this race looks like one where there will be a lot of back and forth.  Very entertaining.  

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27 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Comanche getting a lesson in pyhsics and VMG running..! Oats beating Comanche easily at the moment

You need to give yourself an uppercut terra. We don't know their respective TWS but both are within 5 degrees of COG of each other and only a mile or so apart so assume TWA and TWS are pretty close. The Indian at the moment is cutting WOXI's lunch which is pretty spooky. I don't think Richo will be getting much sleep tonight, albeit a one sleep race for these 100' guys.

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Prospector and Voodoo doing nice things right now...but Ichi has been in a class of her own. Could Oxley be the best nav for the S2H in the world right now..?

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30 minutes ago, ASP said:

Prospector and Voodoo doing nice things right now...but Ichi has been in a class of her own. Could Oxley be the best nav for the S2H in the world right now..?

Of all the people not named Stan Honey, sure.

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2 hours ago, terrafirma said:

Comanche getting a lesson in pyhsics and VMG running..! Oats beating Comanche easily at the moment

Low and slow is great for BBQ but Oats is bleeding miles right now to Comanche.  

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12Z GFS still has a pretty good sized patch of light air in front of the big boats

12Z EC not out yet

boats are a little faster than that GFS would indicate.., but they are slowing down...

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M3 dismasted? From Bookface about Team M3 of Hungary. It's google translated. 

"The hair. According to hu's information, the m3 team Hungary has suffered a mast and is currently on the engine. No one was injured on board, waiting for more detailed information."

 

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5 hours ago, Grinning Ape said:

Looks like the 2nd start line was quite animated. 

And that's how you get a 3rd row start, too close to leeward, room to weather, hesitant, no boat speed and can't drive off to leeward before the gun.

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1 hour ago, sunseeker said:

Of all the people not named Stan Honey, sure.

This.  Good, also,  to see Artie working his Nav Logic well for Prospector.

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Yes. The old Ichi now Envy Scooters with its rating advantage was giving the real Ichi a lot of grief earlier on today. That nightmare might come back for Matt Allen.

Isn’t Envy at 1.398 against Ichi’s 1.397 ?

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That's nonsense, it is varied conditions that are the leveler. In that vein look at distances sailed to date and by who under what conditions that have transpired and now forecast. Arguably the middle tier 100' is now tied up in Sydney and crew are on the drink. The extremes now left have each a few hurdles for and against well before the last hurrah in the Derwent from this restart.

Exactly, the game and the lottery dice start for the last part up the river. 

I’m enjoying this one from the armchair. 

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12 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

It's awesome vs the 'official' tracker.  Well done.  

+1... fascinates me with all the events over the world running event tracking, most seem to fuck it up! 

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16 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

It's awesome vs the 'official' tracker.  Well done.  

True,the Rolex wearers tracker looks more  like a manual winder movement compared to Forss.

At least the start footage access improved this year and the no commentary and advertising portion was brilliant.

D945506D-B7B9-49F5-8DE5-24D86B23FD00.thumb.png.2d4b51946423e21f042f941fee76026a.png

 

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You need to give yourself an uppercut terra. We don't know their respective TWS but both are within 5 degrees of COG of each other and only a mile or so apart so assume TWA and TWS are pretty close. The Indian at the moment is cutting WOXI's lunch which is pretty spooky. I don't think Richo will be getting much sleep tonight, albeit a one sleep race for these 100' guys.

With the amount of shit he dribbles on with one can only assume he's auditioning for a commentary position with Ch7 for next years start coverage.

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well, with breeze apparently dropping over last few updates., the speed difference between woxi and comanchee is diminishing.., and may soon turn in favor of woxi

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3 minutes ago, Gorn FRANTIC!! said:

With the amount of shit he dribbles on with one can only assume he's auditioning for a commentary position with Ch7 for next years start coverage.

I hate to admit it, but I thought the coverage was great.  Being in the US I did get the welcome gaps in coverage which was nice.  The announcers were good, they balanced between the racing sailors watching and the laymen.  Spithill was great as well.  You guys are too harsh.  Of course my metric is Clean...enough said. 

 

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1 minute ago, us7070 said:

well, with breeze apparently dropping over last few updates., the speed difference between woxi and comanchee is diminishing.., and may soon turn in favor of woxi

I expect a number of lead changes and from a spectator's viewpoint, the last one on the last lap in the Derwent.  This is fun to watch!

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5 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

I expect a number of lead changes and from a spectator's viewpoint, the last one on the last lap in the Derwent.  This is fun to watch!

+ 1 on lead changes and fun to watch!  Not having a dog in the fight, it's most important that the final result comes down to the wire.

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10 hours ago, Horn Rock said:

Who Gilly?

Might be time to shut the fuck up now princess. You have shown you are a ignorant cocksucker- there is no need to keep confirming it.

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Not much breeze up the front and Comanche holding on, maybe they have plugged that hole.

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1 minute ago, Swimsailor said:

Any reason why they keep heading inland?  Isn't the breeze offshore?  Too long a route to make it worthwhile?

They have every bit of information we do and are playing their optimum solutions.  Maybe you aren't aware, but there are software packages that take your boat's polars and the wx predictions and tell you where to sail.  These guys are doing just that x10.

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2 hours ago, Bruno said:

And that's how you get a 3rd row start, too close to leeward, room to weather, hesitant, no boat speed and can't drive off to leeward before the gun.

No boat speed+ too early 2 line + owners g/f driving (maybe?) = hang head down and hope no one recognizes you.   Oi vay baby!

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