Nailing Malarkey Too

Hey Gouvernail, what were you saying about the markets

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29 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

Yeah, that big tax cut to the corporations a few weeks ago sure made big changes in a hurry.

I suspect the reduced withholding on lower end wage earners is getting spent.

 

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On 5/3/2018 at 11:13 AM, austin1972 said:

When I originally read the article, I called BS. China regularly buys beans from us and it gets listed as as 'Unknown Destination'. Everyone knows that means China. Then I looked at futures. The market is certainly buying the story. Fuck me. Margins are already ridiculously tight to negative. I saw someone say 'just grow something else'. OK, how do you propose I do that? Let's see...I rely on beans to put nitrogen into the soil so I can rotate corn back into it without having to buy fertilizer. Wheat is out. My soil isn't right for it since wheat likes sandy soil. Same for sorghum but for different reasons - pH.

That leaves truck crops. That's very human labor intensive (think immigrants from the south) and that's being shut down, as well as I don't have time to deal with managing a large crew. Nor do I have a well developed distribution system available to deliver truck crops.

Thanks Obama! Erm, or whomever!!

Aren't you closer to Canada?  Why don't you get Canadians to pick your cotton or whatever?

 

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No question the economy is currently in good shape. Too good by some measures.

Giving Trump's activities the credit for it is just partisan stupidity. Little or nothing that happens on the macro level in a POTUS's first year is due to them, it's all hangover from previous policy.

Changes in the past few months are the first that Trump can claim as his and in that period the markets have been heading down, not up.

Unemployment under 5% simply drives inflation - it's a sign of an overheated economy.

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19 hours ago, Saorsa said:

Aren't you closer to Canada?  Why don't you get Canadians to pick your cotton or whatever?

 

They're too nice to be a dickhead to.

New estimates are that the bean tariff is going to cost the Ag industry about $14 Billion this year...

MAGA indeed.

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Trump got a disproportionate amount of support from Agro country didn't he?

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38 minutes ago, austin1972 said:

They're too nice to be a dickhead to.

New estimates are that the bean tariff is going to cost the Ag industry about $14 Billion this year...

MAGA indeed.

 

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Hey lookie! Beans just fell below my break even. Yay. There's gonna be a lot of 340 acres +/- for sale signs this year. Let the consolidation continue, then get ready for expensive food when it's an oligopoly. It's coming.

MAGA!

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How much money does big Agro pay the Republicans?

That'll give an idea of how soon they will control the entire food supply.

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On 5/7/2018 at 12:38 PM, austin1972 said:

Hey lookie! Beans just fell below my break even. Yay. There's gonna be a lot of 340 acres +/- for sale signs this year. Let the consolidation continue, then get ready for expensive food when it's an oligopoly. It's coming.

MAGA!

Now Bayer buys Monsanto. I wonder how much $$$ was spent to push that through? It's a duopoly now folks. Bye bye family farms. Get back to me in 10 years about how much your food costs. What a joke. The kicker is that the deal closes on 6/14. That's Flag Day and they're doing this to a country founded on an agricultural economy on that day. Food security? They'll have you by the bits and pieces. And they'll get you even more with your taxes going to bigger subsidies.

Wow.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-29/bayer-wins-u-s-nod-for-monsanto-nearing-end-of-two-year-quest

 

Looks like I might change careers and become a real estate developer.

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15 minutes ago, austin1972 said:

It's a duopoly now folks

Just like the political system. 

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Polaris just bought Glastron, Wellcraft, Four Winns and Scarab 

In 1967 that would have been a brilliant purchase 

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2 minutes ago, Mickey Rat said:

Just like the political system. 

It won't end well. Unintended consequences. Here's an example:

Del Monte rents a lot of land out here. The farmer plants it and DM comes in and takes it out to eliminate shrinkage. They use new equipment every year to prevent any downtime. That equipment then gets sold to people like me. There will no longer be a used market. So, equipment will then break which will push up costs (hired hands will want their pay). Equipment manufacturers will not have the pipeline they once had to sell new stuff.

There's a long downstream effect to this. You'll end up paying for it in plenty of ways from food costs to increased subsidies to welfare checks to land stewardship practices to...You get the point.

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Sounds like we're well on our way to the world featured in Rollerball.

Entertainment corporation

Food corporation

Transportation corporation

etc.

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At least the markets know that tariffs do not work.  I keep on thinking of the repeal of the corn laws and what a landmark it was on the road to democracy.  Now I see that the same zero sum game opposition to prosperity  is still in place.

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Nice work Donald. The markets love your new trade policy. Fuckhead.

image.png.9c87c293f4ec7f2a2630906e71a9ab87.png

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On 5/7/2018 at 10:38 AM, austin1972 said:

Hey lookie! Beans just fell below my break even. Yay. There's gonna be a lot of 340 acres +/- for sale signs this year. Let the consolidation continue, then get ready for expensive food when it's an oligopoly. It's coming.

MAGA!

Sorry man.

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On 5/7/2018 at 10:38 AM, austin1972 said:

Hey lookie! Beans just fell below my break even. Yay. There's gonna be a lot of 340 acres +/- for sale signs this year. Let the consolidation continue, then get ready for expensive food when it's an oligopoly. It's coming.

MAGA!

Trump has called for Patriot Farmers to step up and take the hit for these tariffs.

;) You Sir, are a Patriot!;)  We stand and salute you!;)

Wheat farmers around here are taking down their Trump MAGA signs, and our R congresswoman’s re-election is in enough doubt that millions are being pumped into her campaign.

Seriously, this sucks.  You don’t deserve this. Farmer’s are necessary.  

Time to take the tractors to DC?

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6 minutes ago, Amati said:

Trump has called for Patriot Farmers to step up and take the hit for these tariffs.

;) You Sir, are a Patriot!;)  We stand and salute you!;)

Wheat farmers around here are taking down their Trump MAGA signs, and our R congresswoman’s re-election is in enough doubt that millions are being pumped into her campaign.

Seriously, this sucks.  You don’t deserve this. Farmer’s are necessary.  

Time to take the tractors to DC?

I'd throw in $100 for fuel. Might get ya 20 miles?

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2 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

I'd throw in $100 for fuel. Might get ya 20 miles?

Anybody gouging on biodiesel yet?

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Seems the US is a day late and a dollar short with regards to being able to compete with China. 

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11 minutes ago, Mickey Rat said:

Seems the US is a day late and a dollar short with regards to being able to compete with China. 

who says the powers that be want to compete with china? they wanted to outsource manufacturing to increase their margins. That's worked well. Like other ways of chasing short term profits, it's now biting those companies in the ass.

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22 minutes ago, Mickey Rat said:

Seems the US is a day late and a dollar short with regards to being able to compete with China. 

You forgot the part about brain shortage in the White House compared to that to be found in Beijing.

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1 minute ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

You forgot the part about brain shortage in the White House compared to that to be found in Beijing.

I think it's more likely you were sold down the river long ago by a bunch of lying self-serving politicians than an actual deficit in IQ. With exception to W,  he was as dumb as a sack of nails.  

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8 hours ago, Amati said:

Seriously, this sucks.  You don’t deserve this. Farmer’s are necessary.  

Time to take the tractors to DC?

There will still be farms. They'll be corporate oligopolies.. China takes a lot of the beans grown in the US. Now they'll get them from Argentina. Prices fell to $8.41/bushel today. Anything under about $10/bushel, and you're losing money.  My 5 year average is 57 bushels/acre. Do the math and that's about $200/acre loss.

FML. Real estate is hot and my farm is pretty though. Getting time to pave paradise.

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17 minutes ago, austin1972 said:

There will still be farms. They'll be corporate oligopolies.. China takes a lot of the beans grown in the US. Now they'll get them from Argentina. Prices fell to $8.41/bushel today. Anything under about $10/bushel, and you're losing money.  My 5 year average is 57 bushels/acre. Do the math and that's about $200/acre loss.

FML. Real estate is hot and my farm is pretty though. Getting time to pave paradise.

Also local consumer prices will go down if there is a local market for soy beans. Maybe a good time to grow produce that has a local demand? As in all businesses the rule of thumb in farming is diversification. Relying on China to buy your produce is  not a safe bet. The lesson here is don't put all your apples (or in this case soy beans) in one cart. 

Good luck, I hope you don't loose your farm. 

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7 minutes ago, Mickey Rat said:

Also local consumer prices will go down if there is a local market for soy beans. Maybe a good time to grow produce that has a local demand? As in all businesses the rule of thumb in farming is diversification. Relying on China to buy your produce is  not a safe bet. The lesson here is don't put all your apples (or in this case soy beans) in one cart. 

Good luck, I hope you don't loose your farm. 

I am diversified. Cattle, hogs, corn and beans. All the prices tanked. Produce? Who am I going to hire to do truck farming? Americans don't do stoop crop picking. That's for brown people and they're persona non grata these days.

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Dow's dive wipes out year's gains as China trade fight escalates

Stocks fell sharply Tuesday after President Donald Trump's latest threat to China increased fears of an impending trade war between the world's largest economies. 

The Dow closed down 287 points, erasing all of its gains for the year. The S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent, with materials, industrials and tech all falling. The Nasdaq shed nearly 0.3 percent. 

"At some point you've got to wonder how many times stocks are going to react to the same general bit of news. It may all just be a game of one-up-manship as a negotiating tactic to get to some sort of deal," said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Baird. However, "with investor optimism as high as it is, there might not be much margin for error, and there is a real risk that this starts to erode consumer and business confidence." 

Shares of some of the biggest chipmakers fell given their large exposure to China. Qualcomm and Nvidia both dropped at least 1.5 percent. On average, semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies get 52 percent of their revenue from China, according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/dows-dive-wipes-out-years-gains-as-china-trade-fight-escalates/ar-AAyQyYC?ocid=spartandhp 
 

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So, Trump's on his way to proving the old adage that Republican administrations SUCK for the market.

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I hear chain-link cage stocks are up.

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2 hours ago, austin1972 said:

I am diversified. Cattle, hogs, corn and beans. All the prices tanked. Produce? Who am I going to hire to do truck farming? Americans don't do stoop crop picking. That's for brown people and they're persona non grata these days.

Once the 0.001% can't get gardeners and pool boys and nannies they'll start leaning on the administration about the immigration laws.

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Just for Happy Malarkey Jack Hillary Again   Big-Wave Too!!!!!

 

9A660C6E-C1F6-496C-A207-16BF5CC0F1F4.jpeg

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On 2/26/2018 at 3:58 PM, Nailing Malarkey Too said:

Remind me...

Okee dokee 

A9893DBF-9E63-4241-A2AD-F9E9185F71C1.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Gouvernail said:

Okee dokee 

A9893DBF-9E63-4241-A2AD-F9E9185F71C1.jpeg

I have to admit, Trump is running the economy like his 6 bankrupt businesses. I suspect the Wall St barons are already loading their  lifeboats with gold. 

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Meanwhile, while everyone was babbling about Maxine...

image.thumb.png.c71233693ebfc3856ab68d63343b0d53.png

Another banner day in tariffland.

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Down another 328. Heck of a job, Donnie! 

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5 minutes ago, Gouvernail said:

01361540-8DE5-4C8A-8059-C172FF3C1A4F.jpeg

That's about a 450 point intraday swing.  

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On 6/26/2018 at 5:52 AM, Fakenews said:

Trump trashes and threatens  another  US company.  This one is Harley Davidson and this time he’s forced them to offshore US jobs.

to my knowledge no other US president has ever done this.

Disturbing...

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1011584315040419840

I asked my lawyer if what Trump has done is actionable.  

Answer?  No.

At this point, it’s all bluster, or speech, in Lawyer speak.  

Trump is very clever.  And we are fucked suckers.

Anyway, Trump is going to see Putin for his annual performance review soon, so more anon, I suppose.....

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US first-quarter growth slowed more than estimated, weighed down by the weakest consumer spending in

nearly 5 years 

Reuters 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/27/final-reading-on-first-quarter-2018-gdp.html 



The U.S. economy slowed more than previously estimated in the first quarter amid the weakest performance in consumer spending in nearly five years. 

Growth appears to have since regained momentum on the back of a robust labor market and tax cuts, however. 

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the January-March period, instead of the 2.2 percent pace it reported last month. 

 

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tariffs weighing on raw material costs, immigration crackdowns & restrictions weighing on labor costs, businesses have to raise prices on a market still price sensitive.

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7 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

tariffs weighing on raw material costs, immigration crackdowns & restrictions weighing on labor costs, businesses have to raise prices on a market still price sensitive.

And the report above was 1st quarter 2018, before the orange blob started his trade war. 

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I sold my entire stock market holdings back in March when it became apparent Trump had found the levers that actually work. Levers that allow him to actually do something: trade. Now I’m in treasury-like things and oil, 50/50. Yeah, he can hugely affect oil prices, but I figure only in one direction: up.

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Are those treasury-like things the ones that other countries are no longer buying?

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2 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Are those treasury-like things the ones that other countries are no longer buying?

Yup. I don’t know what else to do. After the long run up with AAPL and GOOG everything else seems a bit dull. On the sidelines for a while. Concentrating on refitting the boat.

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10 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Are those treasury-like things the ones that other countries are no longer buying?

Yield curve indicates oncoming recession. Heck of a job, Donnie....can't spell Recession without an (R).

Recession fears are flaring as Trump's trade war has markets behaving in a way...

not seen since the financial crisis 

Source: Business Insider, by Joe Ciolli 
 
The metric in question is the spread between two- and 10-year Treasury yields, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2007 — the period immediately preceding the most recent financial crisis.


warning.png
 
While short-term interest rates are almost always lower than their long-term counterparts, the difference between the two tends to tighten when investors are paying more for near-term protection. That flight to safety would seem to match the spike in investor nervousness seen as trade-war fears have escalated. 

This dynamic is reflected in the chart above, which shows the so-called yield curve is not only flattening but nearing negative territory. If the two-year were to start yielding more than the 10-year — a rare occurrence known as inversion — it would signal that a recession is near, according to historical precedent.

More at: http://www.businessinsider.com/trade-war-could-cause-next-recession-fears-not-seen-since-financial-crisis-2018-6 
 

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The next recession is already well overdue.

Like several years. the average up cycle is something like 50 months and it's been 9 years now.

Thanks Obama.

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Investors are getting nervous. Market since Trump began his trade wars.

 

Investors pull $30 billion out of stocks in 2nd-largest weekly outflow on record: BAML

Current market carries echoes of 1998 Asia/LTCM crisis: analysts 

MW-GL835_dollar_20180629161101_ZH.jpg

As the second quarter neared its close, investors adjusted allocations, with a notable rotation out of equities and into safer assets such as government bonds or cash, according to flow data compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 

Much of the repositioning was driven by changing environment: tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy, rising energy prices, geopolitical tensions and growing protectionist policies across the globe. 

In the week ended on Wednesday, investors withdrew nearly $30 billion from global equity funds, which was the second largest weekly outflow on record, the BAML analysts said in a Friday note. 

The biggest chunk of equity outflows came from U.S. equity funds, where investors withdrew $24.2 billion over the past week, the third largest outflow ever. - Marketwatch
 

Can you tell when Trumps trade war began?

image.jpeg

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"Stocks drop across the globe on trade fears"

Trump strikes again

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Krugman says US debt needs to be maximized, Trump is listening. Prosperity is just around the corner. 

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Look at short term and long term bond rates. Money is running for the doors.

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On 2/27/2018 at 8:11 PM, Gouvernail said:

EB4B4B28-5E1F-4683-948B-04CE41A5805D.jpeg

And five months later . 

The flattest. The very flattest. Gropenfuhrer has successfully stopped the run up of this most generally accepted single indicator of economic growth, now it is time to work on destroyingbthe gains we all enjoyed under the Democratic administration. 

19619B3F-57C9-4A60-8F12-DB64E313A521.jpeg

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It's only going to take a spark to send the economy into a steep dive. The indicators are in alignment.

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U.S. government on course to borrow the most money since the financial crisis



The Treasury Department predicted the U.S. government’s borrowing needs in the second half of this year will jump to the most since last decade’s financial crisis as the nation’s fiscal health deteriorates despite a strong economy. 

The department expects to issue $329 billion in net marketable debt from July through September, the fourth-largest total for that quarter on record and higher than the $273 billion estimated in April, Treasury said in a report Monday. 

The department’s forecast for the October-December quarter is $440 billion, bringing the second-half borrowing estimate to $769 billion, the highest since $1.1 trillion in July-December 2008. 

The estimates were “quite a bit higher than our expectations,” Thomas Simons, senior money-market economist at Jefferies, said in a note.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-treasury-borrowing-20180730-story.html

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It's up about 1% today on news of a new trade deal with Mexico.

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1 hour ago, austin1972 said:

Sure let's be honest and look back 10 years even if the last 4 or so years is more relevant. 

The day after Obama was elected Nov 05, 2008    9,616.60

The day after Trump was elected Nov 10, 2016   18,603.14

Today 26,049

Obama Growth    9,014 pts  +93 %  40 pts/mo     0.48 %/mo

Trump growth      7,446 pts  +40 %  355 pts/mo   1.90 %/mo

888 % higher growth rate under Trump ( using points)

396% higher growth rate under Trump (as a percentage)

So is my math right or wrong? 

 

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MW-FI823_DowCor_20170323160402_NS.png?uuid=dc21ed9a-1003-11e7-9078-001cc448aede

 

I've noticed a strong trend.  The market has a generally positive slope.   The positive slope gets steepest just before in becomes a negative slope.   It does this no matter what is happening in the news.  

MW-FI839_201703_20170323184536_NS.png?uuid=6e5b9e66-101a-11e7-afd5-001cc448aede

130811-2.jpg

The S & P is a more meaningful view anyway.   The Dow is an artifact of an era when clerks could only average a few stock prices and industrial production was the most important part of our economy.   Next you will pretend GDP is important.   It just measures how much money is spent, so reconstruction after a hurricane looks like a good thing, and decreased resource consumption due to gains in efficiency are bad.   Climate change is good for GDP, but bad for the economy.  

 

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50 minutes ago, Nailing Malarkey Too said:

Sure let's be honest and look back 10 years even if the last 4 or so years is more relevant. 

The day after Obama was elected Nov 05, 2008    9,616.60

The day after Trump was elected Nov 10, 2016   18,603.14

Today 26,049

Obama Growth    9,014 pts  +93 %  40 pts/mo     0.48 %/mo

Trump growth      7,446 pts  +40 %  355 pts/mo   1.90 %/mo

888 % higher growth rate under Trump ( using points)

396% higher growth rate under Trump (as a percentage)

So is my math right or wrong? 

 

Your premise is wrong. Please explain the US economy and how quickly it reacts to changes. Or on a smaller scale, how long does it take an aircraft carrier to come about while under full steam?

Bush started it, Obama maintained it and Trump has been riding it. He's done nothing to improve the average American's place.

Many of his moves haven't yet had a market effect.

The tax breaks were a bust. Promotions often don't come with a pay bump. No wonder companies are doing well at the moment. At he same time, the trade war will result in additional taxes on the American people.

Environmental restrictions lifted. That's good?

Has your financial place gotten significantly better since Trump?  If you say your stock portfolio has grown, that's great. Might want to keep an eye on that bond inversion. That's usually a harbinger of something bad.

So fire off your numbers and attribute them all to to Trump. It's pretty obvious when the tide changed (when Bush started dumping money into the economy). Let's see what happens when the pending recession hits. Trump's advisors are likely telling him it's coming which is why he's hitting out at the Fed. Too bad the fact is, the Fed doesn't get into politics and they've already blown their load anyways.

Bottom line is the average Joe hasn't felt an improvement and some sectors are getting crushed. So long as corporations are doing well though, it's all good right?

Corporations are becoming the new communism. The 'people' are slaves to their work. They need their healthcare and their paycheck because their incomes are too low for them to endure any downtime. The elite (oligarchs) get rich as hell and make sure the laws are tipped in favor to them.

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1 hour ago, austin1972 said:

Your premise is wrong. Please explain the US economy and how quickly it reacts to changes.

Hopeless Hillary and his elk think the economy moves when Trump says something. Merely proposing a tax cut is instantly the reason for any market movement.

Lag in the economy is beyond their comprehension - if unemployment drops an 1/8th of a point it must be because of what Trump said yesterday.

In other words they're ignorant fools.

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1 hour ago, austin1972 said:

Your premise is wrong. Please explain the US economy and how quickly it reacts to changes. Or on a smaller scale, how long does it take an aircraft carrier to come about while under full steam?

Bush started it, Obama maintained it and Trump has been riding it. He's done nothing to improve the average American's place.

Many of his moves haven't yet had a market effect.

The tax breaks were a bust. Promotions often don't come with a pay bump. No wonder companies are doing well at the moment. At he same time, the trade war will result in additional taxes on the American people.

Environmental restrictions lifted. That's good?

Has your financial place gotten significantly better since Trump?  If you say your stock portfolio has grown, that's great. Might want to keep an eye on that bond inversion. That's usually a harbinger of something bad.

So fire off your numbers and attribute them all to to Trump. It's pretty obvious when the tide changed (when Bush started dumping money into the economy). Let's see what happens when the pending recession hits. Trump's advisors are likely telling him it's coming which is why he's hitting out at the Fed. Too bad the fact is, the Fed doesn't get into politics and they've already blown their load anyways.

Bottom line is the average Joe hasn't felt an improvement and some sectors are getting crushed. So long as corporations are doing well though, it's all good right?

Corporations are becoming the new communism. The 'people' are slaves to their work. They need their healthcare and their paycheck because their incomes are too low for them to endure any downtime. The elite (oligarchs) get rich as hell and make sure the laws are tipped in favor to them.

I was in home depot today and the Halloween display was huge. Easily 3 times the size of last year. 

Lean years and flush years are best told by how retailers anticipate holidays. Retailers are saying 2018 is the best consumer confidence they can remember. 

Every objective measure says you are blowing smoke. 

And you are especially wrong when it comes to the DOW. Short term, the DOW reflects investor confidence and fears. Over time (years) it corrects to reflect earnings. For the last two years of Obama it was FLAT. The day after Trump won against all the predictions of the so called expert economists used by the NYtime and Wa Post the dow took off with rockets. 

This is 100% all Trump.  Obama was nothing but an anchor. He's gone now and good riddance.  

Oh and yes, my portfolio is very happy. 

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So a PE of 25 on the S&P when the historical average is 15 is OK? Must be the new normal. I thought you were an economic genius.

What about the bond inversion?

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1 minute ago, austin1972 said:

So a PE of 25 on the S&P when the historical average is 15 is OK? Must be the new normal. I thought you were an economic genius.

What about the bond inversion?

If ignorance is bliss, NM2 must be the happiest guy on this or any other planet.

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9 minutes ago, Nailing Malarkey Too said:

I was in home depot today and the Halloween display was huge. Easily 3 times the size of last year. 

And now we return to the studio after that in depth analyse of the economy by one of MIT's finest drop outs.

Coming up next on Fox news, an report on how many POW's were falsely labeled as 'Hero's'

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22 minutes ago, Nailing Malarkey Too said:

Oh and yes, my portfolio is very happy. 

Not as happy as that fucked up church you clowns give your money to must be.

How about the children and ex wives you abandoned? Are they happy to?

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10 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

Not as happy as that fucked up church you clowns give your money to must be.

How about the children and ex wives you abandoned? Are they happy to?

Its not the kick to the nuts you give him that impresses me.  It's the contrail coming off the heel of your shoe when you do it. 

 

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36 minutes ago, Nailing Malarkey Too said:

I was in home depot today and the Halloween display was huge. Easily 3 times the size of last year. 

The next time you are at Home Depot counting plastic pumpkins as a market indicator, tell Warren Buffet Ben said "Hey."

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Jesus Jackov is losing it.  When can we send his treasonous ass back to Canada?

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