southerncross

VOR Leg 7 Auckland to Itajai

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2 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Next, let me declare my allegiance, as too many frogs here root for the Dong. My great grand parents were 100% Frisians (north province of the Netherlands), and so is Bouwe. And Bouwe is always positive (now more than ever of course), so Brunel it is. They also need the double/extra points a lot more than Dong. I do also like the philosophical spirit of Charles, so a well deserved 2nd for them.

Well, Fiji... in that case... I’m with you 100%. Were it not for those tough minded, independent thinking Frisians I would not be here. I’m sure you know of what I speak, if not, contact me privately.

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6 minutes ago, mad said:

Not sure they could tow at that speed the whole way, sea conditions would soon stop that. :P

We were talking Scallywag, but it surely would be something to consider for Vestas. They could tow it behind 11th hour Eric Smith's super yacht: 

 

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7 minutes ago, A Boy Named Stu said:

Dongfeng keeps heading up / changing headings, usually 010 - 015 COG. Brunel has spent the last few hours with a COG of 005

Currently down to 4.5 miles in between them

Noticed that too and the track starts to show it now. IF the winds are indeed lighter to the east, Brunel should gain. 

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Update from skipper Charles Caudrelier onboard Dongfeng Race Team:

This morning we can see Brunel a few miles ahead! Those few miles ahead are also where the first place position is, the one we have been looking for since the start and failed so many times over the last few days.

We had a fantastic night sailing at 24 knots. We could have gone faster but we can’t forget about all the breakages and the boats that have suffered around us so much since the start.

Winning the leg would be a fantastic bonus which will give us the lead of the race. But for that we have to finish first and that is what I am going to focus on. No mistakes can be made now.

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10 minutes ago, mdeh said:

Well, Fiji... in that case... I’m with you 100%. Were it not for those tough minded, independent thinking Frisians I would not be here. I’m sure you know of what I speak, if not, contact me privately.

100% Fries, really?  Oh man, my 25% is bad enough, as you may have noticed on this forum !

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6 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Update from skipper Charles Caudrelier onboard Dongfeng Race Team:

This morning we can see Brunel a few miles ahead! Those few miles ahead are also where the first place position is, the one we have been looking for since the start and failed so many times over the last few days.

We had a fantastic night sailing at 24 knots. We could have gone faster but we can’t forget about all the breakages and the boats that have suffered around us so much since the start.

Winning the leg would be a fantastic bonus which will give us the lead of the race. But for that we have to finish first and that is what I am going to focus on. No mistakes can be made now.

Is there a report of what damage they have?  Could they be just holding back a fraction? sounds strange I know. 

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13 minutes ago, mad said:

Is there a report of what damage they have?  Could they be just holding back a fraction? sounds strange I know. 

Don't think he meant that they had any damage in particular, he was thinking more of the other boats. 

I bet he is going full out now, so close to the finish and the extra points within reach !

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5 minutes ago, paps49 said:

Again Brunel able to soak down when necessary.

brunie.JPG

Have these guys found a new mode? They were lower a lot compared to the fleet before the horn as well.  

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Lifted about 15 degrees over the last couple hours and DF sailing ~3 degrees higher, gaining a knot or so.  BR coming up to cover a little more aggressively now.  Sure hope the AIS is working so DF don't slip by under cover of darkness.  Hard to see running lights at 5 nm distance.

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Last leg, MF passed DF to weather and then denied the passing lane by luffing, kept the lead all the way to the finish.  Hope BR don't make the same mistake.  Cover, cover, cover.

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Thanks for the updates and info ,all. Ketchup took awhile.  

Just some asides

7 hours ago, mad said:

Using iPad, have closed and reopened, still nothing. :wacko:

DTFs on the iPad, oddly, are in the Menu-> Results-.Ranking. Strange place.  

And +1 to the  questions about the breakdowns. Can't help but wonder if the Boatyard checks in Auckland somehow stumbled with the added pressure of getting VS11 back in the water. And if AKZO's troubles with a new boat showing cracks in the OD building process? Had expected older boats with many more miles to have such problems. As you said, have to wait and hope for more info.

5 hours ago, Forestdawg said:

That is what I was remembering. Was just searching for a reference, to no avail.

No matter now, was easy to miss (posted when the crew lists finally came out). Wondered then why only Shang reacted.

On 2018-03-16 at 11:36 AM, stief said:

Stealth is gone: 

The Volvo Ocean Race General Sailing Instructions 2017-18 Amendment 11, 16 March 2018

https://www.volvooceanrace.com/static/assets/content_v2/media/files/m46743_si-leg-general-inc-amdt-11-20180316.pdf

  1. 28.2  Boats may elect to have their position reports not published for three consecutive scheduled 6 hourly reports. However reports will not be withheld whenever a boat is within 200 miles of the Leg finish.

--such a relief to read so many new posts. 

--MAPF in the handicap class, riding the short bus. Guess this is what para-olympians sprinters see when watching the regular Olympians run.

-and a reminder of all Herman's  routing and ETAs of the past :

 

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1 minute ago, Kenny Dumas said:

DF just found some lighter air and jibed.  Game on.

Will Brunel cover?

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1 hour ago, Fiji Bitter said:

100% Fries, really?  Oh man, my 25% is bad enough, as you may have noticed on this forum !

Not me.... but the people that stuck their necks out... were.

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Burling will have good advice for Capey and Bouwe. Afterguard competition?

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14 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Hard to see running lights at 5 nm distance.

Should be possible with those LED Hella Masthead lights, and don't forget the radar. 

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A gybing duel at night would be sooo cool, but they are headed toward a veer with more pressure. Brunel did well to stick to the dong.

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Big wind gradient out there, they both dropped down to 17 TWS but got back to 20+ shortly after jibing

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4 minutes ago, stief said:

Burling will have good advice for Capey and Bouwe. Afterguard competition?

No doubt that Burling will now be their top helmsman, might be a decisive factor in the end sprint.

Capey will drink coffee, and Bouwe will scratch his skull to bits...

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5 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Capey will drink coffee, and Bouwe will scratch his skull to bits...

If Bouwe did that to me I would kick him in the nuts

 

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5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Reading posts about stealth was like arriving late to a party and finding everyone pissed.

And the hot chick wants to dance...

BR kicking it in soak mode now with 3-4 knots better VMG

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26 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

No doubt that Burling will now be their top helmsman, might be a decisive factor in the end sprint.

Capey will drink coffee, and Bouwe will scratch his skull to bits...

 

20 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

If Bouwe did that to me I would kick him in the nuts

 

Reading it 3x, and finally Image result for penny dropped

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3 hours ago, littlechay said:

Talk.of flying in a complete leg and craneing the boat out to change it

Time they thought about throwing a delivery crew and a AP on that flight. It's bullshit the race crew spending 10 days or more on that rolling bucking bronco then have at best a week to get ready for the next leg to Newport.

I imagine lifting the new drive leg in will probably involve gymnastics of hanging the keel in the drink and doing it arse over the dock unless they have a lifting platform or something.

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nice knock for Dongfeng right now. roughly 10 degrees lower COG and same speed

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Would give them time to get the new rig to Stanley . . . .

Anyway, TBRU still holding onto the inside of that shift . . .  TWA consistently a few degrees better.

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11 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Time they thought about throwing a delivery crew and a AP on that flight. It's bullshit the race crew spending 10 days or more on that rolling bucking bronco then have at best a week to get ready for the next leg to Newport.

I imagine lifting the new drive leg in will probably involve gymnastics of hanging the keel in the drink and doing it arse over the dock unless they have a lifting platform or something.

I wonder if you could cant the keel enough to get the saildrive opening out of the water?

you could put the drive in first, then attach the motor once the boat is flat.

assuming the motor doesn’t fly across the cabin with its mounts off...

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Not sure if there would be time to get a delivery crew there unless they were already in South America. From NYC the flight is 86 hours.

Even from Rio its 48 hours in flying & layovers... but you cannot leave until Thursday.

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37 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Time they thought about throwing a delivery crew and a AP on that flight. It's bullshit the race crew spending 10 days or more on that rolling bucking bronco then have at best a week to get ready for the next leg to Newport.

 

Good thinking, they should also consider mounting a jury rig, with a utility pole and some spectra rigging, and some sails.

It might stop the rolling, add some speed, and would get them to a bar if the engine or drive fails.  

Add plenty of kites to keep the crew of the booze too.

Ask Conrad Colman for advice...

And ask that Dragon kiter along for 40 kn.top speeds !

 

18 minutes ago, A Boy Named Stu said:

Not sure if there would be time to get a delivery crew there unless they were already in South America. From NYC the flight is 86 hours.

Even from Rio its 48 hours in flying & layovers... but you cannot leave until Thursday.

Private or hire Jet, no problem.

Edited by Fiji Bitter
Dragon

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Wondering if there's a little bit of instrument calibration issue going on here. DF/Brunel consistently showing a TWS and boatspeed diff that isn't really showing a diff on position. 

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I think we'll be seeing a bit of a gybing duel tonight. Cheering for Brunel.

Aint no rest for the wicked.

Screen Shot 2018-04-02 at 10.07.43 PM.png

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8 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Wondering if there's a little bit of instrument calibration issue going on here. DF/Brunel consistently showing a TWS and boatspeed diff that isn't really showing a diff on position. 

Believe that boatspeed is SOG, i.e. GPS based, so in that case no calibration issue. Also the Pro Mode does not show a clear difference. The VMG shows Brunel higher for the last 6 hours though.

However, checking the TWS in the Pro Mode definitely shows Brunel generally higher, as you say.  That could lead to some errors in VMG, but I would think by very little only.

So, use the instruments to optimize, but don't rely on absolute values, methinks.

 

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Thanks for the above vid SC--MAPF sounding a bit resigned there.

TBRU back up to speed. Looked like DFRT forced them to choose between better VMC and gybing to cover.

Pretty confusing switching back and forth between VMCs (on boat click) , VMGs and TWDs (in the table), and tying to catch the tactics in play in the gradient winds they are negotiating. And haven't even tried to get the Pro mode insights, so thanks Fiji for that check.

Wicked duel happening.

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1 hour ago, A Boy Named Stu said:

Not sure if there would be time to get a delivery crew there unless they were already in South America. From NYC the flight is 86 hours.

Even from Rio its 48 hours in flying & layovers... but you cannot leave until Thursday.

There’s more than a few people associated with Vestas that have private planes and the ability to charter whatever they want, so travel time isn’t a problem.

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1 minute ago, sunseeker said:

There’s more than a few people associated with Vestas that have private planes and the ability to charter whatever they want, so travel time isn’t a problem.

Not saying its impossible, just another hurdle. My bet is they are relieved somewhere in argentina unless the engine repair takes much longer.
 

 

8 minutes ago, stief said:

Thanks for the above vid SC--MAPF sounding a bit resigned there.

TBRU back up to speed. Looked like DFRT forced them to choose between better VMC and gybing to cover.

Pretty confusing switching back and forth between VMCs (on boat click) , VMGs and TWDs (in the table), and tying to catch the tactics in play in the gradient winds they are negotiating. And haven't even tried to get the Pro mode insights, so thanks Fiji for that check.

Epic duel happening.

current gen americas cup versus figaro/vendee. Plus two veteran navigators. This WILL be interesting.

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8 minutes ago, A Boy Named Stu said:

current gen americas cup versus figaro/vendee. Plus two veteran navigators. This WILL be interesting.

True that. Capey and Bouwe on TBRU make Charles and Pascal almost seem like the young guns (in VOR experience).  DFRT still seems like they have a speed edge , as seen in smoothness of their last gybe, so hoping they'll be in the same winds to get a clearer picture if TBRU have evolved a new mode.

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29 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Believe that boatspeed is SOG, i.e. GPS based, so in that case no calibration issue. Also the Pro Mode does not show a clear difference. The VMG shows Brunel higher for the last 6 hours though.

However, checking the TWS in the Pro Mode definitely shows Brunel generally higher, as you say.  That could lead to some errors in VMG, but I would think by very little only.

So, use the instruments to optimize, but don't rely on absolute values, methinks.

 

TWS and TWA data calcs both rely on speed through the water, not GPS/SOG and I agree with Miff re calibration differences so with that and that being spot data, don't have to much regard for anything other than COG and SOG.

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9 minutes ago, stief said:

True that. Capey and Bouwe on TBRU make Charles and Pascal almost seem like the young guns (in VOR experience).  DFRT still seems like they have a speed edge , as seen in smoothness of their last gybe, so hoping they'll be in the same winds to get a clearer picture if TBRU have evolved a new mode.

Yeah this is also Bouwe and Capey's third race together. Charles and Pascal are only on their second... rookies :lol:

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14 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

TWS and TWA data calcs both rely on speed through the water, not GPS/SOG and I agree with Miff re calibration differences so with that and that being spot data, don't have to much regard for anything other than COG and SOG.

 Uh  ?!*

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3 minutes ago, paps49 said:

DTF anybody, stuck on my phone.

162

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TBRU 162.26; DFRT 166.26 (2mins ago)

@SC.  Haha. well done. Should have waited. rusty here.

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6 hours ago, southerncross said:

Something to do with rate of fuel consumption and what they can carry?

I would tend to agree Southern, the range of a power vessel is dramatically further at cruising speed than at max hull speed. Sometimes the fuel burn can be reduced by as much as 70% by backing off on the throttle. The time cost of dipping into ports to refuel would more than outweigh any time saved by going faster. In my view anyway.

SS

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Too funny.  Now see the mess you've caused Paps. 

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Ouch. Despite the fun on the Front Page, sad times at the back of the bus. MAPF now >100  nm behind TTOP. Sigh. Hope that doesn't make anyone happy.

Quote

sign o’ the times

seahorse-ad.jpg

This centerfold ad came from this magazine, circa January, 1977. We always knew the guys at Seahorse were dirty bastards….

http://sailinganarchy.com/2018/04/02/sign-o-the-times/

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Don't forget this is Kevin Escofier's second VOR but myriad other races; Daryl Wislang on Abu Dhabi last edition. 

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56 minutes ago, sunseeker said:

There’s more than a few people associated with Vestas that have private planes and the ability to charter whatever they want, so travel time isn’t a problem.

Don't underestimate the political spanners that Argentina can throw into the spokes of any wheel. A charter could fly in from Brazil, offshore, but Argentina will not permit charters to fly through their airspace to the Falklands.

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47 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

TWS and TWA data calcs both rely on speed through the water, not GPS/SOG and I agree with Miff re calibration differences so with that and that being spot data, don't have to much regard for anything other than COG and SOG.

No that would be sailing wind or water wind. You need the OG measurements to get TW. 

Boat speed and apparent wind plus heading will give you wind over the water but doesn't allow for current. Etc etc

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3 minutes ago, littlechay said:

Don't underestimate the political spanners that Argentina can throw into the spokes of any wheel. A charter could fly in from Brazil, offshore, but Argentina will not permit charters to fly through their airspace to the Falklands.

I’m mindful of that. Its a mess any way you look at it for Vestas. Not insurmountable, but definitely not easy. And your friend rocks for all the help he has given them.

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10 minutes ago, stief said:

MAPF now >100  nm behind TTOP.

Closer to 80.

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1 minute ago, southerncross said:

Closer to 80.

Looked again, right. Had to zoom.  Whew . . .  kinda.

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22 minutes ago, stief said:

Too funny.  Now see the mess you've caused Paps. 

Should have known, thankfully will be home for the finish.

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11 minutes ago, littlechay said:

Don't underestimate the political spanners that Argentina can throw into the spokes of any wheel. A charter could fly in from Brazil, offshore, but Argentina will not permit charters to fly through their airspace to the Falklands.

Can laugh about it now - but I wasn't laughing when we weren't allowed to visit Ushuaia because we stopped at the Falklands without giving Argentina the bullshit recognition of their claim by applying for permission to visit the Falklands.

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3 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Scally has about 30 miles to go.

MarineTraffic is not giving any more clues, as far as I can tell. The patrol vessel is docked, the mysterious tug has vanished and there is no AIS report from SHKS.

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Just now, Forestdawg said:

MarineTraffic is not giving any more clues, as far as I can tell. The patrol vessel is docked, the mysterious tug has vanished and there is no AIS report from SHKS.

Maybe the boat on the tracker is a decoy.

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Just checked the Predictwind forecast, and it shows the sea-breeze will begin to fill at 14.00 local time. Predictwind is supposed to be the top forecast for that sort of thing.
The ETA on Forss/Windy is now 13.00 local time, back from 15.00 earlier. That could mean they might be drifting around for an hour or so. 
If true, that's gone be a nail-biter. If they get there after 14.00, then Brunel might get away with it. Can't wait...
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1 minute ago, damagesmith said:

Is Scally out of the race all together?

Some say no and will rejoin in Newport.

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Frig'n awesome race. Boats in front duking it out without reservation after a brutal southern ocean transit. Akzo quietly happy to be on the podium. TToP doing well to stay in front of Mapfre without the benefit of wind. Logistics nightmare for Vestas, and where is Scally? I love this shit. Freaking awesome race.

And the anarchists too. Buddies helping in the Falklands, twins in the bedroom, southern bitter beer, Mr facts, y'all are great. Peace to y'all!

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7 minutes ago, littlechay said:

Don't underestimate the political spanners that Argentina can throw into the spokes of any wheel. A charter could fly in from Brazil, offshore, but Argentina will not permit charters to fly through their airspace to the Falklands.

Just for fun I had a look around to see if I could find some baseline prices for chartering an Antonov 124. Circa 10,000 USD per hour and up seems to be a passable estimate - a least ballpark. The difficulty is that it also seems most planes are booked well ahead and there are going to be either: no available aircraft, or a significant premium to get one in a hurry. Then you need to work out the overall cost of the entire charter. It won't be just the actual delivery. Where it fits in with existing charters around the world will matter. There is the one lonely Antonov 225 that could probably be chartered at call. But it goes for 30,000 USD per hour. And you would be chartering it ex-Ukraine. Hard to imagine the exercise costing less than a million - but you would probably beat Mapfre into port. If you could find an AN 124 in a timely fashion it might only cost a few hundred thousand. Maybe. Big maybe.

An AN 124 has an unladen range of 8100nm and 7100nm with 20 tons of cargo. So avoiding airspace problems shouldn't be too awful. Although the money will be draining away at a depressing rate with any diversion. An AN 225's range is similar.

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22 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Can laugh about it now - but I wasn't laughing when we weren't allowed to visit Ushuaia because we stopped at the Falklands without giving Argentina the bullshit recognition of their claim by applying for permission to visit the Falklands.

Yea. There is a standard fine to clear that, but it is substantial.. 5k US I think. 

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2 minutes ago, Francis Vaughan said:

But it goes for 30,000 USD per hour

That's about 1,250 USD per wheel.

AN124-El-Centro.jpg

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21 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Scally has about 30 miles to go.

Doubt it, they were much closer a couple of hours ago. On the virtual Android tracker that was. That may have been a bit too virtual, and that tracker has now virtually stopped altogether. I think they should be in by now.

And what, no news on the VOR site, how come?

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6 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Doubt it, they were much closer a couple of hours ago. On the virtual Android tracker that was. That may have been a bit too virtual, and that tracker has now virtually stopped altogether. I think they should be in by now.

Not from where I am.  Still moving. 

Screen Shot 2018-04-02 at 8.13.30 PM.png

Screen Shot 2018-04-02 at 8.17.32 PM.png

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Just now, Fiji Bitter said:

And what, no news on the VOR site, how come?

Given the slow progress and everything else, there seem to be lots of indications that there is still more to be told. None of it good I fear. I don't blame them for wanting to concentrate on the important stuff and only provide media information when they feel it is appropriate. 

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2 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Doubt it, they were much closer a couple of hours ago. On the virtual Android tracker that was. That may have been a bit too virtual, and that tracker has now virtually stopped altogether. I think they should be in by now.

And what, no news on the VOR site, how come?

Hope it's to give them time with friends and family and a chance to debrief before the media scrum. 

(Glad you're safe rather spending Easter hanging from the cross trees. Gotta go. TTYL)

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Scally turning into Reloncaví Sound or Seno de Reloncaví is a body of water immediately south of Puerto Montt, a port city in the Los Lagos Region of Chile. It is the place where the Chilean Central Valley meets the Pacific Ocean.

Screen Shot 2018-04-02 at 8.28.42 PM.png

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