southerncross

VOR Leg 7 Auckland to Itajai

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46 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Brown cafe's or coffee shops you mean?   When I was in Stockholm the girls had brown teeth, and the coffee was ditch water from Itajai (sorry Bow, nothing personal, and 2-3 glasses of wine and whine warning!)

I was thinking more like.........

 

 

1382536130_Smokey_01.jpg

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Dee: "We've come through, we've finished"  and "we've proved we can do big winds . .". Fair call.

Night all. Safe watch.

 

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Niall and Coleman really said it all, about TTOP, Dee, Liz, her crew, the sponsors, the mission, their accomplishments. To all of you skeptics and cynics who posted such critical commentary above, bah humbug. 

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5 minutes ago, boomer said:

Noticed that Paps - I was a wee bit surprised.

???? (missed that)

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7 minutes ago, stief said:

???? (missed that)

Mentioned a post by Boomer Dep his old handle.

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3 minutes ago, boomer said:

My congrates to TTOP, Dee crew and Liz being indispensable.

11.30 in the live.

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1 hour ago, Fiji Bitter said:

May I guess, BH (natter boy) perhaps ?  

And if you sail 1 leg and got kicked off, then you can claim to have sailed the Whitbread/Volvo RTW, isn't it...

I could be wrong but I think Hancock's Whitbread No 3 in 89/90 on Fazisi started in Punta del Este, doing only the last 2 legs. If wrong a worthy mention of weirdness anyway as Punta was where Skip Novak's co skipper on Fazisi Alexei Grishenko, hung himself. 

Also with regard to discussion here about flying Vestas out of the Falklands, Fazisi a bigger boat arrived to the Southampton start line in a Russian cargo plane.

 

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Well done Team Dee. She and crew look in remarkable condition, she in particular. 

Xabi & Co finally moving but on the breeze which must give them the shits.

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18 minutes ago, boomer said:

 

 

Moving Scally tribute to Fish. 

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Indeed - tough to loose such good sailing mentor. A sailor like that probably had a wide ranging impact as a sailor, teacher and champion of the sport.

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Does anyone know if the tradition of Leg by Leg awards at each stopover  is still going such as Seamanship, Navigation etc? I seem to have a mental blank on this.

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1 hour ago, paps49 said:

Mentioned a post by Boomer Dep his old handle.

Heard that shout out, did not know it was THIS Boomer...! 

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Well done TTOP! Fourth place in Itajay is something to be proud of. Now rest and keeping pushing in the next legs  :)

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Vestas

 

Some pics. New rig, as I said; stumpy, and a couple of Stanley regulars. Photos from a Facebook post by Robin C. Goodwin.

 

FB_IMG_1523080520109.jpg

FB_IMG_1523080517118.jpg

FB_IMG_1523080489890.jpg

FB_IMG_1523080469265.jpg

FB_IMG_1523080444562.jpg

FB_IMG_1523080428633.jpg

FB_IMG_1523080416627.jpg

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55 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

If wrong a worthy mention of weirdness anyway as Punta was where Skip Novak's co skipper on Fazisi Alexei Grishenko, hung himself.

I was still very young, but remember that very well, because my grandpa got a call from Skip if he would like to join them, the day before the Russian skipper hang himself. Skip must have known something that the poor guy didn't know for sure himself, or at least not on which tree. True story, but in reality a very very sad one, and I don't think anybody knew exactly why.

Anyway, grandpa had already declined because he was still suffering from PTSOSD, and only liked bananas to eat, and not to sail on. Could well be that he then called his mate Braindead, who of course saw the great potential of the innovative underwater design, or it could be the other way round, that Hanknob got off in Punta, after unsuccessfully trying to hang himself too. Very sad.

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58 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

 

Moving Scally tribute to Fish. 

Fuck. Shots of the kids and other friends with Fish in that vid ... just when I thought I was coming to terms with it.

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@Fiji Bitter hope it's not too breezy up there.. you are a cyclone magnet at the moment.

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20 minutes ago, littlechay said:

@Fiji Bitter hope it's not too breezy up there.. you are a cyclone magnet at the moment.

True, most of the cruising Gerry's here blame me and my kids for everything. But I have a big 240V fan, blowing that nastiness out of my way. Cyclone Winston 2 years ago was an unforgettable experience, I can tell you, but once was enough. Biggest danger are the abandoned boats that are badly tied up, or simply on unreliable moorings. Watching this one for sure, but it's looking good so far.

Just a strange wobble back to Vanuatu, and then this way again is what worries me. It's path after the wobble would seem hard to predict, but the models have become surprisingly good, as could be seen in the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean last year.

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58 minutes ago, littlechay said:

Vestas

 

Some pics. New rig, as I said; stumpy, and a couple of Stanley regulars. Photos from a Facebook post by Robin C. Goodwin.

 

 

 

FB_IMG_1523080489890.jpg

FB_IMG_1523080469265.jpg

FB_IMG_1523080444562.jpg

FB_IMG_1523080428633.jpg

 

 

 

 

Is that the longest piece of steel pipe he could find?

 

On a V65 can you Adam and Eve it!

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On 4/3/2018 at 12:30 AM, Fiji Bitter said:

Good thinking, they should also consider mounting a jury rig, with a utility pole and some spectra rigging, and some sails.

It might stop the rolling, add some speed, and would get them to a bar if the engine or drive fails.  

Add plenty of kites to keep the crew of the booze too.

Ask Conrad Colman for advice...

And ask that Dragon kiter along for 40 kn.top speeds !

  •  

Some pics. New rig, as I said; stumpy, and a couple of Stanley regulars. Photos from a Facebook post by Robin C. Goodwin.

FB_IMG_1523080489890.jpg

 

May I claim that it was my idea, but it looks very much like Conrad's Colman design, and Falkland construction.

Now just curious if they find it makes really a difference,  if there is enough wind I think it will.

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6 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:
  •  

Some pics. New rig, as I said; stumpy, and a couple of Stanley regulars. Photos from a Facebook post by Robin C. Goodwin.

FB_IMG_1523080489890.jpg

 

May I claim that it was my idea, but it looks very much like Conrad's Colman design, and Falkland construction.

Now just curious if they find it makes really a difference,  if there is enough wind I think it will.

Paul said they had found an old mast section of 8m which I took to mean aluminium. But that does look like sombodies old steel flagpole.

The only alternatives might have been some old telecom lattice mast sections or to borrow a mast off a local boat with a promise of a new rig.... I'd have gone for that ;)

Probably a lot more steel tube around, drill sections etc but I would think the big limiting factor is the weight. The carbon rig weighs in at the square root of fuck all but I have no idea of the compression loads .... 25Tonnes ? So the step shouldn't be a problem but you have to stabilise that with improvised chainplates at non-optimum angles.

 

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4 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Brown cafe's or coffee shops you mean?   When I was in Stockholm the girls had brown teeth, and the coffee was ditch water from Itajai (sorry Bow, nothing personal, and 2-3 glasses of wine and whine warning!)

None taken - Stockholm is in another country ;) 

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1 hour ago, littlechay said:

Some pics. New rig, as I said; stumpy, and a couple of Stanley regulars. Photos from a Facebook post by Robin C. Goodwin.

Another photo from the post:

What's that lying on the dock .... ??

5ac87b85a5232_Vestassaildriveondock.jpg.fdc1fcd2863bec5c7725b475881a1150.jpg

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5 (EDIT: soon 6) new videos in the Arrivals playlist, incl.... oh... :wub::wub::wub:...
(These girls rock!!! The boys too, but they always did, and now we see the girls do too on a regular basis, which is soooooooooooo great!!!)
 

 

Edited by Rennmaus
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13 minutes ago, Searob said:

Another photo from the post:

What's that lying on the dock .... ??

5ac87b85a5232_Vestassaildriveondock.jpg.fdc1fcd2863bec5c7725b475881a1150.jpg

Looks to me like they changed the saildrive too. See the pic where the boat is lifted clear of the water.

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9 minutes ago, NORBowGirl said:

None taken - Stockholm is in another country ;) 

Oops, I've now almost forgotten what we were talking about, but believe you had plenty of that Snus in your country too. That has probably been replaced by much better stuff, nowadays...

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I have posted this in the Leg 8 thread however with MAPF being the only one still out on the race course, my fear is this thread may die, therefore not giving them the respect they deserve. Hence posting a duplicate here to keep the room alive. I’m also one of those odd people when at the Movies, stay seated to watch the credits roll at the end that identify the people involved in its creation.

This 2017/18 Edition is showing some very eerie parallels with the 2011/12 Edition at commencement of the Sth America to Nth America leg.

- Telefonica still looked to be the boat to beat being top of the table, albeit not arriving into Itajai in first place.

- Leg 5 in 2012 or the Southern Ocean leg had Sanya retire with a broken rudder and return to Auckland where it was shipped to Miami.

- Camper had to divert to Puerto Montt for repair.

- Abu Dhabi had to return to Auckland for repair just after the start, continue but then divert to Puerto Montt for shipping to Itajai.

- Telefonica had a pit stop at Cape Horn.

- After rounding the Horn Groupama was dismasted but built a jury rig to finish.

Look familiar?

So let’s have a look at comparative history using Itajai as the forecasting benchmark:

AUCKLAND to ITAJAI LEG PLACINGS

2018                                       2012      

BRU                                         Puma                               

DFRT                                      Telefonica            

AKZO                                     Groupama

TTOP                                     Camper

MAPF                                    Abu Dhabi (Ret)

SHKS (Ret)                          Team Sanya (Ret)                                                           

VS11 (Ret)                                                                          

POINTS LEAVING ITAJAI (comparative points irrelevant as scoring is different between the two editions).

2018                                                       2012      

DFRT – 46                                           Telefonica - 164                 

MAPF - 45                                           Groupama - 153

BRU - 36                                              Camper - 149

AKZO - 33                                            Puma - 147

SHKS – 26                                           Abu Dhabi - 68                  

VS11 – 23                                            Team Sanya – 25                             

TTOP - 20                                            

Now the final placings in the 2011/12 Edition.

2011/12 FINAL PLACINGS

Groupama -        253 pts

Camper -             231 pts

Puma -                 226 pts

Telefonica -        213 pts

Abu Dhabi -        131 pts

Sanya -                 51 pts

Therefore using the 2011/12  Itajai podium placings, arriving and leaving Itajai, final results for the 2017/18 edition could be as follows:

 

Team that finished first into Itajai (Puma) came third i.e. BRU

Team that left Itajai in first position (Telefonica) came fourth i.e. DFRT

 

Team that finished second into Itajai (Telefonica) came fourth i.e. DFRT

Team that left Itajai in second  position (Groupama) won i.e. MAPF

 

Team that finished third into Itajai (Groupama) won i.e. AKZO

Team that left Itajai in third  position (Camper) came second i.e. BRU

 

The best retirees into Itajai can expect is last and second last i.e. SHKS and VS11

 

CONCLUSION

MAPF and AKZO have an equal chance of securing the top prize. For DFRT to succeed they have to exorcise the "Telefonica Podium Fail Factor" and ending up 4th.

BRU have an outside chance of ending up on the podium.

 

Now for those that have little regard for this forecasting approach, remember humanity's all-too-frequent failure at actually learning from history or the past mistakes of history as captured by these two now departed gentleman.

"We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let's face it, is mostly the history of stupidity.
Stephen Hawking 

"Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it." 
Winston Churchill

learning_from_history.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Oops, I've now almost forgotten what we were talking about, but believe you had plenty of that Snus in your country too. That has probably been replaced by much better stuff, nowadays...

Yep, most of the snus today is white, so it doesn’t stain the teeth. And it’s a lot better than smoking, no big health risk. 

It’s a shame this isn’t available world wide, it’s really a genius product. And very practical, you can snuse while you’re sailing :) 

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21 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

I have posted this in the Leg 8 thread however with MAPF being the only one still out on the race course, my fear is this thread may die, therefore not giving them the respect they deserve. Hence posting a duplicate here to keep the room alive. I’m also one of those odd people when at the Movies, stay seated to watch the credits roll at the end that identify the people involved in its creation.

This 2017/18 Edition is showing some very eerie parallels with the 2011/12 Edition at commencement of the Sth America to Nth America leg.

- Telefonica still looked to be the boat to beat being top of the table, albeit not arriving into Itajai in first place.

- Leg 5 in 2012 or the Southern Ocean leg had Sanya retire with a broken rudder and return to Auckland where it was shipped to Miami.

- Camper had to divert to Puerto Montt for repair.

- Abu Dhabi had to return to Auckland for repair just after the start, continue but then divert to Puerto Montt for shipping to Itajai.

- Telefonica had a pit stop at Cape Horn.

- After rounding the Horn Groupama was dismasted but built a jury rig to finish.

Look familiar?

So let’s have a look at comparative history using Itajai as the forecasting benchmark:

AUCKLAND to ITAJAI LEG PLACINGS

2018                                       2012      

BRU                                         Puma                               

DFRT                                      Telefonica            

AKZO                                     Groupama

TTOP                                     Camper

MAPF                                    Abu Dhabi (Ret)

SHKS (Ret)                          Team Sanya (Ret)                                                           

VS11 (Ret)                                                                          

POINTS LEAVING ITAJAI (comparative points irrelevant as scoring is different between the two editions).

2018                                                       2012      

DFRT – 46                                           Telefonica - 164                 

MAPF - 45                                           Groupama - 153

BRU - 36                                              Camper - 149

AKZO - 33                                            Puma - 147

SHKS – 26                                           Abu Dhabi - 68                  

VS11 – 23                                            Team Sanya – 25                             

TTOP - 20                                            

Now the final placings in the 2011/12 Edition.

2011/12 FINAL PLACINGS

Groupama -        253 pts

Camper -             231 pts

Puma -                 226 pts

Telefonica -        213 pts

Abu Dhabi -        131 pts

Sanya -                 51 pts

Therefore using the 2011/12  Itajai podium placings, arriving and leaving Itajai, final results for the 2017/18 edition could be as follows:

 

Team that finished first into Itajai (Puma) came third i.e. BRU

Team that left Itajai in first position (Telefonica) came fourth i.e. DFRT

 

Team that finished second into Itajai (Groupama) won i.e. DFRT

Team that left Itajai in second  position (Groupama) won i.e. MAPF

 

Team that finished third into Itajai (Groupama) won i.e. AKZO

Team that left Itajai in third  position (Camper) came second i.e. BRU

 

The best retirees into Itajai can expect is last and second last i.e. SHKS and VS11

 

CONCLUSION

DFRT, MAPF and AKZO have an equal chance of securing the top prize, but with DFRT having to be very mindful of the "Telefonica factor".

BRU have an outside chance of ending up on the podium.

 

Now for those that have little regard for this forecasting approach, remember humanity's all-too-frequent failure at actually learning from history or the past mistakes of history as captured by these two now departed gentleman.

"We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let's face it, is mostly the history of stupidity.
Stephen Hawking 

"Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it." 
Winston Churchill

learning_from_history.jpg

Does that come in an app?

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5 minutes ago, NORBowGirl said:

Yep, most of the snus today is white, so it doesn’t stain the teeth. And it’s a lot better than smoking, no big health risk. 

It’s a shame this isn’t available world wide, it’s really a genius product. And very practical, you can snuse while you’re sailing :) 

I did a trip once with the Sail Racing executives.... Thought they all some kind of deformity to their too lip to begin with. ;)

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9 minutes ago, littlechay said:

I did a trip once with the Sail Racing executives.... Thought they all some kind of deformity to their too lip to begin with. ;)

:D it’s a seldom sight nowadays. The snus is so small you hardly even notice it. Probably because more women use it and you know we care more about our look ;) 

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9 minutes ago, NORBowGirl said:

:D it’s a seldom sight nowadays. The snus is so small you hardly even notice it. Probably because more women use it and you know we care more about our look ;) 

At least one of them was a diehard hand roller though. None of the new fangled teabags for him ;)

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35 minutes ago, paps49 said:

Does that come in an app?

Papa I would build one if I had time..but too busy finding a place to hide from Shang with that final podium forecast.

NB. My post which you quoted had a Dong error that I subsequently corrected after your quote.

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1 hour ago, littlechay said:

Looks to me like they changed the saildrive too. See the pic where the boat is lifted clear of the water.

Would not like to be the man who dropped the new drive in the piss during that tricky over water swap out. Would have needed to be a fuckin fast runner to stay alive.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

I have posted this in the Leg 8 thread however with MAPF being the only one still out on the race course, my fear is this thread may die, therefore not giving them the respect they deserve. Hence posting a duplicate here to keep the room alive. I’m also one of those odd people when at the Movies, stay seated to watch the credits roll at the end that identify the people involved in its creation.

This 2017/18 Edition is showing some very eerie parallels with the 2011/12 Edition at commencement of the Sth America to Nth America leg.

- Telefonica still looked to be the boat to beat being top of the table, albeit not arriving into Itajai in first place.

- Leg 5 in 2012 or the Southern Ocean leg had Sanya retire with a broken rudder and return to Auckland where it was shipped to Miami.

- Camper had to divert to Puerto Montt for repair.

- Abu Dhabi had to return to Auckland for repair just after the start, continue but then divert to Puerto Montt for shipping to Itajai.

- Telefonica had a pit stop at Cape Horn.

- After rounding the Horn Groupama was dismasted but built a jury rig to finish.

Look familiar?

So let’s have a look at comparative history using Itajai as the forecasting benchmark:

AUCKLAND to ITAJAI LEG PLACINGS

2018                                       2012      

BRU                                         Puma                               

DFRT                                      Telefonica            

AKZO                                     Groupama

TTOP                                     Camper

MAPF                                    Abu Dhabi (Ret)

SHKS (Ret)                          Team Sanya (Ret)                                                           

VS11 (Ret)                                                                          

POINTS LEAVING ITAJAI (comparative points irrelevant as scoring is different between the two editions).

2018                                                       2012      

DFRT – 46                                           Telefonica - 164                 

MAPF - 45                                           Groupama - 153

BRU - 36                                              Camper - 149

AKZO - 33                                            Puma - 147

SHKS – 26                                           Abu Dhabi - 68                  

VS11 – 23                                            Team Sanya – 25                             

TTOP - 20                                            

Now the final placings in the 2011/12 Edition.

2011/12 FINAL PLACINGS

Groupama -        253 pts

Camper -             231 pts

Puma -                 226 pts

Telefonica -        213 pts

Abu Dhabi -        131 pts

Sanya -                 51 pts

Therefore using the 2011/12  Itajai podium placings, arriving and leaving Itajai, final results for the 2017/18 edition could be as follows:

 

Team that finished first into Itajai (Puma) came third i.e. BRU

Team that left Itajai in first position (Telefonica) came fourth i.e. DFRT

 

Team that finished second into Itajai (Telefonica) came fourth i.e. DFRT

Team that left Itajai in second  position (Groupama) won i.e. MAPF

 

Team that finished third into Itajai (Groupama) won i.e. AKZO

Team that left Itajai in third  position (Camper) came second i.e. BRU

 

The best retirees into Itajai can expect is last and second last i.e. SHKS and VS11

 

CONCLUSION

MAPF and AKZO have an equal chance of securing the top prize. For DFRT to succeed they have to exorcise the "Telefonica Podium Fail Factor" and ending up 4th.

BRU have an outside chance of ending up on the podium.

 

Now for those that have little regard for this forecasting approach, remember humanity's all-too-frequent failure at actually learning from history or the past mistakes of history as captured by these two now departed gentleman.

"We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let's face it, is mostly the history of stupidity.
Stephen Hawking 

"Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it." 
Winston Churchill

learning_from_history.jpg

Awesome powers of deduction there, Sherlock_Sparrow. ;)

Pity you went to so much trouble. I believe BRUNEL will win. I feel it in my bilge water.

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I'm assuming all but Charlie and Mark doing the delivery? With the loss of condition incurred since Auckland I hope they have some appropriate food and physical reconditioning program for the delivery to avoid starting Leg 8 behind the eight ball.

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6 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

Awesome powers of deduction there, Sherlock_Sparrow. ;)

Pity you went to so much trouble. I believe BRUNEL will win. I feel it in my bilge water.

Sail you might need to swap out that yellow bag then :-)

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

I'm assuming all but Charlie and Mark doing the delivery. With the loss of condition incurred since Auckland I hope they have some appropriate food and physical reconditioning program for the delivery to avoid starting Leg 8 behind the eight ball.

Was some talk of delivery crew on the Vestas update video wasn't there? 

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1 minute ago, littlechay said:

Was some talk of delivery crew on the Vestas update video wasn't there? 

Not specific being either existing remaining or fly in. I hope the latter for them.

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2 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:
  •  

Some pics. New rig, as I said; stumpy, and a couple of Stanley regulars. Photos from a Facebook post by Robin C. Goodwin.

FB_IMG_1523080489890.jpg

 

May I claim that it was my idea, but it looks very much like Conrad's Colman design, and Falkland construction.

Now just curious if they find it makes really a difference,  if there is enough wind I think it will.

Looks a bit like Sir Peter's, Ceramco New Zealand. That jury rig worked out just fine on the great circle route to, Cape Town.

Jury rig Leg 1.jpg

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10 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Sail you might need to swap out that yellow bag then :-)

It's 'gold', mate!

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Only 200nm to go for, MAPFRE. I hope that breeze doesn't crimp out.

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13 hours ago, random said:

So easy to poke the bear in this thread.  Say something negative about the VOR and SNAP! a protector appears to attack the poster, usually personally.

Are these guys sitting in the backroom of the VOR office?

I recall watching a US TV show interview where the guest asked what all those people (to one side of the studio) were doing?  The host answered "They are our Social Media Team.  They monitor and post on the various SM channels for our show!"   There was about 8 people each with dual screens.

 

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

I have posted this in the Leg 8 thread however with MAPF being the only one still out on the race course, my fear is this thread may die, therefore not giving them the respect they deserve. Hence posting a duplicate here to keep the room alive. I’m also one of those odd people when at the Movies, stay seated to watch the credits roll at the end that identify the people involved in its creation.

This 2017/18 Edition is showing some very eerie parallels with the 2011/12 Edition at commencement of the Sth America to Nth America leg.

- Telefonica still looked to be the boat to beat being top of the table, albeit not arriving into Itajai in first place.

- Leg 5 in 2012 or the Southern Ocean leg had Sanya retire with a broken rudder and return to Auckland where it was shipped to Miami.

- Camper had to divert to Puerto Montt for repair.

- Abu Dhabi had to return to Auckland for repair just after the start, continue but then divert to Puerto Montt for shipping to Itajai.

- Telefonica had a pit stop at Cape Horn.

- After rounding the Horn Groupama was dismasted but built a jury rig to finish.

Look familiar?

So let’s have a look at comparative history using Itajai as the forecasting benchmark:

AUCKLAND to ITAJAI LEG PLACINGS

2018                                       2012      

BRU                                         Puma                               

DFRT                                      Telefonica            

AKZO                                     Groupama

TTOP                                     Camper

MAPF                                    Abu Dhabi (Ret)

SHKS (Ret)                          Team Sanya (Ret)                                                           

VS11 (Ret)                                                                          

POINTS LEAVING ITAJAI (comparative points irrelevant as scoring is different between the two editions).

2018                                                       2012      

DFRT – 46                                           Telefonica - 164                 

MAPF - 45                                           Groupama - 153

BRU - 36                                              Camper - 149

AKZO - 33                                            Puma - 147

SHKS – 26                                           Abu Dhabi - 68                  

VS11 – 23                                            Team Sanya – 25                             

TTOP - 20                                            

Now the final placings in the 2011/12 Edition.

2011/12 FINAL PLACINGS

Groupama -        253 pts

Camper -             231 pts

Puma -                 226 pts

Telefonica -        213 pts

Abu Dhabi -        131 pts

Sanya -                 51 pts

Therefore using the 2011/12  Itajai podium placings, arriving and leaving Itajai, final results for the 2017/18 edition could be as follows:

 

Team that finished first into Itajai (Puma) came third i.e. BRU

Team that left Itajai in first position (Telefonica) came fourth i.e. DFRT

 

Team that finished second into Itajai (Telefonica) came fourth i.e. DFRT

Team that left Itajai in second  position (Groupama) won i.e. MAPF

 

Team that finished third into Itajai (Groupama) won i.e. AKZO

Team that left Itajai in third  position (Camper) came second i.e. BRU

 

The best retirees into Itajai can expect is last and second last i.e. SHKS and VS11

 

CONCLUSION

MAPF and AKZO have an equal chance of securing the top prize. For DFRT to succeed they have to exorcise the "Telefonica Podium Fail Factor" and ending up 4th.

BRU have an outside chance of ending up on the podium.

 

Now for those that have little regard for this forecasting approach, remember humanity's all-too-frequent failure at actually learning from history or the past mistakes of history as captured by these two now departed gentleman.

"We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let's face it, is mostly the history of stupidity.
Stephen Hawking 

"Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it." 
Winston Churchill

learning_from_history.jpg

Must have been a quiet day at the office Jack.

Big difference is that Telefonica were on a downward spiral while Dongfeng have just hit the front for the first time. If you use the last race it was this leg where DFRT LOST the lead not gained it :-)

Cheers

SS

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Papa I would build one if I had time..but too busy finding a place to hide from Shang with that final podium forecast.

NB. My post which you quoted had a Dong error that I subsequently corrected after your quote.

No need to hide Jack - what will be will be. I have followed the race since Ramon Carlin won it and been a real fan since I was there with too many drunken Kiwis watching Big Red come into Ocean Village and started to get really involved 4 editions ago. The fact I am close enough to a team and know many sailors in other teams is just a bonus.

I just hope your forecast built on absolutely no facts whatsoever is completely wrong.

One point I would make is that there is a certain skipper who was on Groupama when she pulled off that overall victory.

Perhaps the fact that Charles Caudrelier, after 2 Southern Ocean legs that have ended in mast trauma has broken the jinx - now that's a more telling projection. ;-)

SS

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I've seen some pretty incredible efforts by solo sailors and teams to recover from a damaged rig and continue the race.  Superhuman.  

We all know them.  http://www.thmartinez.com/folio/339/yves-parlier-vendee-globe-exclusives-images.html

But this is just pathetic.

I have to say, with all the resources Vestas has had at their disposal and by the way, the aforementioned didn't have, I'm not at all impressed with what they have come up with.  Fly a team in, a machine shop and diver?  And it's taken them how long?  A local yard in Bangladesh could have come up with something better.  Just lacks all the independence, ingenuity and resourcefulness we've seen in the past.  

Have they left the dock yet?  

 

 

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10 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Does anyone know if the tradition of Leg by Leg awards at each stopover  is still going such as Seamanship, Navigation etc? I seem to have a mental blank on this.

B&G sponsored a nav prize last time. Not this time, though.

Quote

Ah, the power of knowledge.

Navigators are to their teams what an erudite professor is to a class of competitive students.

They know where to take their meteorological, oceanographic and geographical information from; they know how to interpret it to pick the best possible route.

It’s quite a responsibility. 

So in every stopover, B&G is presenting them with the B&G Navigators Prize for the Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15, an award voted for by the navigators themselves.

Each of the six navigators has been asked to score his or her fellow navigators from one to six points during each leg, with Lorient to Gothenburg counting as one leg.

The one with the highest points score at the end of each leg will win a cash prize of $1000, and the one with the highest cumulative points score at the end of the race will win $5000.

Ah, and they’re not allowed to vote for themselves.

NOR says other prizes MAY be given.  Don't recall mention of the Seamanship, Sportsmanship, or media awards during stopovers.  Shang would know if any were awarded so far  (like for Witty loaning crew to AKZO in Leg 1?)

Quote

24.5  Prizes may be given for:

(a)  For the most outstanding act of Seamanship and or Sportsmanship during the Race.

(b)  Communication by the Skippers and Crew Members, and overall media output for each Leg and overall.

(c)  The Boat that at the end of the Race has the highest number of In-Port Race points the In-Port Race series prize.

(d)  The Boat that at the finish of each Leg has the longest great circle distance sailed in 24 hours for that Leg.

(e)  The Boat that at the end of the Race had the longest Great Circle distance sailed .in 24 hours during the Race.

24.6  Other trophies may be awarded at the discretion of the OA.

 

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2 hours ago, ModernViking said:

Could we save a little bandwidth and not quoute the JS "prediction" in it's entirety over and over?

 

2 hours ago, despacio avenue said:

Or keep reposting Little Chay's Vestas/Stanley pics?

Agree, when good posts like the two mentioned can be seen on the same page by scrolling up.

If the OP is before a page break, then better to treat like a bump so readers don't have to navigate back and forth. That's a bigger catch-up pain.

Any advice on making the thread easier to read? Would be appreciated.

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3 hours ago, southerncross said:

I've seen some pretty incredible efforts by solo sailors and teams to recover from a damaged rig and continue the race.  Superhuman.  

We all know them.  http://www.thmartinez.com/folio/339/yves-parlier-vendee-globe-exclusives-images.html

But this is just pathetic.

I have to say, with all the resources Vestas has had at their disposal and by the way, the aforementioned didn't have, I'm not at all impressed with what they have come up with.  Fly a team in, a machine shop and diver?  And it's taken them how long?  A local yard in Bangladesh could have come up with something better.  Just lacks all the independence, ingenuity and resourcefulness we've seen in the past.  

Have they left the dock yet?  

 

 

+,1.  Talk about resourceful and self sufficient! Yves "The Extra Terrestrial " Parlier was a real mariner.

His telex " "I have dismasted. I am going on. I do not need assistance."  ranks among the best quotes in sailing of all time.

Typically French, he managed to look suave throughout the process.

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17 hours ago, Forestdawg said:

The BGAN itself is about $10K CDN, then there are the service fees. According to my nephew, the average offshore oil rig has a monthly satcom service fee of roughly $250K, which shows you how they make their money. Good thing Inmarsat is a race partner, that would be an expensive little broadcast from the Horn.

If you don't need the coverage in some far away corners of the world KVH HTS is an alternative. 10Mbit down, 3 Mbit uplink is way way faster than Fleet Broadband.
Terminal prices are similar but Inmarsat BGAN happens to be -roughly- 30 times the price per GB than the new KVH V7-HTS system... More interesting is that they include an 2nd(!) unmetered always on channel. Quite slow (128kbit down 64kbit up) in the free version but just for a few coins you can boost that up all the way to 4Mbit down 1Mbit up. ($9.5k per month please) 

The Inmarsat equivalent is FleetXpress which is still more expensive. 

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9 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Oops, I've now almost forgotten what we were talking about, but believe you had plenty of that Snus in your country too. That has probably been replaced by much better stuff, nowadays...

Nice look!

Image result for snus

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MAPF still over 100 nm out, but at least they averaged 9.6 kts during the last 6 hrs. SHKS and VS11 look to have progressed out of range.

(spreadsheets are now coming in here, but no news why. No Live today not surprising; might have missed the memo.)

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I've not been paying close attention, obviously. Is MAPFRE wearing her original main, or is the replacement the one they're just shredded?

113nm to go and it looks very slow up ahead. Poor buggers.

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2 hours ago, Rasputin22 said:

Nice look!

Image result for snus

Does that snus shit give one ashtray breath too? 

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27 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

I've not been paying close attention, obviously. Is MAPFRE wearing her original main, or is the replacement the one they're just shredded?

113nm to go and it looks very slow up ahead. Poor buggers.

Still original. Tough going, but tough crew.

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30 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

Does that snus shit give one ashtray breath too? 

No

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35 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

I've not been paying close attention, obviously. Is MAPFRE wearing her original main, or is the replacement the one they're just shredded?

113nm to go and it looks very slow up ahead. Poor buggers.

Since they have 2 mains, they will alternate between them and I don’t know if we can call any of them an original? 

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7 hours ago, southerncross said:

I've seen some pretty incredible efforts by solo sailors and teams to recover from a damaged rig and continue the race.  Superhuman.  

We all know them.  http://www.thmartinez.com/folio/339/yves-parlier-vendee-globe-exclusives-images.html

But this is just pathetic.

I have to say, with all the resources Vestas has had at their disposal and by the way, the aforementioned didn't have, I'm not at all impressed with what they have come up with.  Fly a team in, a machine shop and diver?  And it's taken them how long?  A local yard in Bangladesh could have come up with something better.  Just lacks all the independence, ingenuity and resourcefulness we've seen in the past.  

Have they left the dock yet?  

 

 

I have to agree. Nearly every RTW race or attempt ends up having one or more boats on Stanley short of a rig. It has been suggested before that the teams or RO pre-production a spar and some matching sails so that it can be fitted to any boat that needs it.

But the Vestas effort has been shite. They could have flown in a more useful spar than that without too much expense and in short time. Even if it had to come in two pieces and be joined on the ground.

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1 hour ago, NORBowGirl said:

Since they have 2 mains, they will alternate between them and I don’t know if we can call any of them an original? 

What I was really asking is weather they've actually used their second main yet?

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Re interesting passages, like the SHKS delivery mentioned upthread.

This one also looks promising, Mad.

 

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7 hours ago, Chasm said:

If you don't need the coverage in some far away corners of the world KVH HTS is an alternative.

One big disadvantage with KVH is it can't offer up Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) satellite access. Inmarsat have had a monopoly on this since day one and this has impacted upon overall pricing of marine sat services.

That pricing issue "may" change with Iridium recently getting GMDSS provider approval and I think their service/gear availability happens later this year. I say "may" as this could just be a move from a monopoly to a duopoly with little impact on price. 

If price doesn't improve I won't be giving up my cheap and chearfull but glacial comunications platform comprising a DSC MF/HF Modem and sat handheld satphone combo.

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3 hours ago, SCANAS said:

A drone flight through the slot!

:) Heh, I was wondering if he would try the return trip as well, he clearly thought about it, but chickened out. 

Trouble with something like these tricks is that you can't easily practice for them. Just believe that you have developed the chops and go for it. 

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We talk about things sponsorship, madness and going for it..this Swiss guy is a contender.

A Mini and ORMA60 sailor and Laurent Bourgnon's younger brother. 

 

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MAPF still crawling slowly to a finish in the wee hours ahead, averaging  9.6 kts for the last 6 hours. Maybe there'll be a few to greet them, maybe even some Live, Hope they punch out anyone who's there to gloat :D

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34 minutes ago, stief said:

MAPF still crawling slowly to a finish in the wee hours ahead, averaging  9.6 kts for the last 6 hours. Maybe there'll be a few to greet them, maybe even some Live, Hope they punch out anyone who's there to gloat :D

Crawling along at 9.6 kts., we wish.

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50 minutes ago, stief said:

MAPF still crawling slowly to a finish in the wee hours ahead, averaging  9.6 kts for the last 6 hours. Maybe there'll be a few to greet them, maybe even some Live, Hope they punch out anyone who's there to gloat :D

Under 50nm to go now. I'll bet they can smell the BBQed beef steak!

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