shaggybaxter

Who really believes tariffs are good business

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44 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Of course you do Cliff.

Which is why part of this trade tiff is about Chinese subsidies for steel and aluminum that allow us to buy it for less than the producers cost absent government subsidies.

If that were actually true, you should buy heaps of it & stockpile, because you'll be removing money from the source that they could use to do other things and saving your own in the process.

The problem a lot of you seem to have a hard time with is, an ability to sell at a lower price than your domestic suppliers does not *necessarily* mean that item is subsidised. Often your domestic suppliers simply have higher local costs or want a substantially higher profit margin. The Japanese were really good at this - vertically integrated, cheap loan money and a focus on where they wanted to be 10 years out rather than next quarter's P&L statement. US industry self-destructed by focus on really short term and outsourcing everything they could. Pity the IP on how to make stuff transfers too and those pesky competitors go into business on their own account. Meanwhile you've pissed away your lead in the expertise and no longer have the trained people needed to actually make stuff.

A USA manufactured plasma cutter in the 3 phase 120A range (ie not a home hobby toy) is priced at a bit more than 5X the price of a Chinese one. The US made unit is better, but it's not 5X better. Ditto for my heavy duty welder. OTOH my big lathe is a superb piece of work and was made in the USA. Unfortunately it was made in 1942 and nobody, anywhere in the USA, for any price, makes an equivalent machine. Fair enough too in a lot of ways, CNC lathes are better for modern production purposes. Pity most of those come from outside the USA as well.

Metals are freely traded & priced on international exchanges. Subsidies would be pretty obvious. There doesn't seem to be much evidence out there.

FKT

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7 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Metals are freely traded & priced on international exchanges. Subsidies would be pretty obvious. There doesn't seem to be much evidence out there.

US on chinese aluminumhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-aluminum/u-s-finds-china-aluminum-foil-imports-dumped-subsidized-idUSKCN1GB2QQ

EU on chinese steelhttps://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-china-steel-trade-no-winners-in-europe-war-against-chinese-steel-market-anti-dumping-imports/

edit below: the evidence is pretty obvious - perhaps not in oz, because you've a vested interest in supplying china with supplies.

 

that the US doesn't have anyone trained to make shit anymore, much less the supply chain infrastructure, is an inescapable truth. Trumplicans war against academia & immigrants makes the problem for manufacturers even worse

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Just now, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

So tariffing Chinese aluminium might be arguable. What about Canadian aluminium?

As for steel, shrug, I'm just as selfish an arsehole as you guys - we sell China a heap of iron ore & coal, the more steel they sell, the more they buy from us. I'm good with that.

FKT

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1 hour ago, SloopJonB said:

My experience has been that corporate bosses are among the worst offenders for that sort of illiteracy.

That boss introduced me to desktop publishing back in the early 1990s. Before getting into corporate communication he was an actor, so precision of words were important to him.

I learned from him that a college degree program in theater and drama might be one of the most valuable programs for business. I have a daughter who enjoys that stuff, she'll probably make 10x what her old man makes.

Any actor who spends their time as a waiter or waitress and doesn't explore business might be missing out on a part that pays well and might be a lot of fun.

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Just now, Fah Kiew Tu said:

So tariffing Chinese aluminium might be arguable. What about Canadian aluminium?

As for steel, shrug, I'm just as selfish an arsehole as you guys - we sell China a heap of iron ore & coal, the more steel they sell, the more they buy from us. I'm good with that.

FKT

Canadian aluminum tariffs are stupid.

I agree with your latter point, no reason for you to care (yes, I edited the post coincident with your reply).

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1 hour ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Of course you do Cliff.

Which is why part of this trade tiff is about Chinese subsidies for steel and aluminum that allow us to buy it for less than the producers cost absent government subsidies.

I'm no longer sure what you're even arguing.

I do know however, that a tax and a tariff are different, and the thing you claim as a "subsidy" to the USA is most likely just regular ol' commerce with little actual evidence of any country losing money on a product to make us wealthier, as a subsidy would require. I suspect that REEs have been sold at very low profits at various points, but that's likely for them to maintain market share.

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1 minute ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Canadian aluminum tariffs are stupid.

I agree with your latter point, no reason for you to care (yes, I edited the post coincident with your reply).

I've spent far too much time arguing this stuff on a metalworking & manufacturing forum. I'm actually bloody exasperated with the USA manufacturing because I and a lot of other people would *prefer* to buy from you.

The reasons we don't are (in no particular order):

You don't make shit at any sort of world-competitive price. The Germans & Swiss have a lock on the really high quality, high cost market. The Japanese & Koreans own the next tier down and China is catching up.

You import stuff from somewhere else, slap a US label on it and then try to re-sell it for 5X or more the price so as to boost profits. That's simply an insult to everyone's intelligence - your idiots think marketing is king. So we buy from the source and your companies lose business.

A lot of what you actually *do* make is not designed for export, it's just an afterthought spillover from domestic manufacturing. And it shows. This leads to.....

a small point perhaps but important - for whatever incomprehensible reason you stubbornly REFUSE to adopt the metric system and use SI units like every other 1st World country does (plus all the 2nd & 3rd World). This is *particularly* pissing me off ATM because there's a man at the local marina (cruiser type) that needs some new fittings made for his mast and they're all in archaic dimensions and threads. I can make them - I can screw-cut any thread known to mankind - but it's a real PITA to do so and more expensive in time as well.

Funnily though I'm rebuilding my made in 1942 Monarch CY lathe ATM because it is a wonderfully well built machine, still capable of decent work after all these years. But you literally don't make stuff like this any more. I sincerely wish you did.

FKT

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13 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

If that were actually true, you should buy heaps of it & stockpile, because you'll be removing money from the source that they could use to do other things and saving your own in the process.

The problem a lot of you seem to have a hard time with is, an ability to sell at a lower price than your domestic suppliers does not *necessarily* mean that item is subsidised. Often your domestic suppliers simply have higher local costs or want a substantially higher profit margin. The Japanese were really good at this - vertically integrated, cheap loan money and a focus on where they wanted to be 10 years out rather than next quarter's P&L statement. US industry self-destructed by focus on really short term and outsourcing everything they could. Pity the IP on how to make stuff transfers too and those pesky competitors go into business on their own account. Meanwhile you've pissed away your lead in the expertise and no longer have the trained people needed to actually make stuff.

A USA manufactured plasma cutter in the 3 phase 120A range (ie not a home hobby toy) is priced at a bit more than 5X the price of a Chinese one. The US made unit is better, but it's not 5X better. Ditto for my heavy duty welder. OTOH my big lathe is a superb piece of work and was made in the USA. Unfortunately it was made in 1942 and nobody, anywhere in the USA, for any price, makes an equivalent machine. Fair enough too in a lot of ways, CNC lathes are better for modern production purposes. Pity most of those come from outside the USA as well.

Metals are freely traded & priced on international exchanges. Subsidies would be pretty obvious. There doesn't seem to be much evidence out there.

FKT

The point about the U.S. or Canadian made machine is that some industries wouldn't consider saving that 5x on the Asian machine, because downtime costs them 10x or more, and the Asian machines can't often guarantee the supply chain or site maintenance expertise. 

Given that, those old American tools are incredible and sought after like mad here on this side of the pond. An old Bridgeport mill can and will sell for more than it sold new. When my dad sold his 1950s era turret lathe, made in New Jersey, he had Colorado gunsmiths lined up to buy it.

And yeah, we pissed away our lead. But so did Australia and England. Germany would have done the same thing except their language (along with Italy and Spain) prevented them somewhat from selling off their manufacturing to make quick cash in finance and service economy stuff.

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20 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

I've spent far too much time arguing this stuff on a metalworking & manufacturing forum. I'm actually bloody exasperated with the USA manufacturing because I and a lot of other people would *prefer* to buy from you.

The reasons we don't are (in no particular order):

You don't make shit at any sort of world-competitive price. The Germans & Swiss have a lock on the really high quality, high cost market. The Japanese & Koreans own the next tier down and China is catching up.

You import stuff from somewhere else, slap a US label on it and then try to re-sell it for 5X or more the price so as to boost profits. That's simply an insult to everyone's intelligence - your idiots think marketing is king. So we buy from the source and your companies lose business.

A lot of what you actually *do* make is not designed for export, it's just an afterthought spillover from domestic manufacturing. And it shows. This leads to.....

a small point perhaps but important - for whatever incomprehensible reason you stubbornly REFUSE to adopt the metric system and use SI units like every other 1st World country does (plus all the 2nd & 3rd World). This is *particularly* pissing me off ATM because there's a man at the local marina (cruiser type) that needs some new fittings made for his mast and they're all in archaic dimensions and threads. I can make them - I can screw-cut any thread known to mankind - but it's a real PITA to do so and more expensive in time as well.

Funnily though I'm rebuilding my made in 1942 Monarch CY lathe ATM because it is a wonderfully well built machine, still capable of decent work after all these years. But you literally don't make stuff like this any more. I sincerely wish you did.

FKT

Uh dude ... Mismoyled Giblet or whatever is about as American as Coon Cheese and Tooheys Extra Dry.

Given that, you have a good point about our industrial machines, but remember these are not our core machines anymore.

If you want world class deposition equipment, nanoscale manufacturing gear, laser shock peening, ion etching, neutron sensing gear for airport security, hardened satellite systems, advanced wave guides and all the other detrius from the 2020 era economy, we still make some of the best stuff and at oddly competitive pricing.

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44 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Funnily though I'm rebuilding my made in 1942 Monarch CY lathe ATM because it is a wonderfully well built machine, still capable of decent work after all these years. But you literally don't make stuff like this any more. I sincerely wish you did.

Those tools were too well built to be good business anymore, and there are few machine tools made like that anymore. If you want woodworking tools there's at least one, and  a pro-woodworker here who raves about them - Northfield tools - http://www.northfieldwoodworking.com/ - they are still made in the USA and ultra heavy duty, but it's a tiny ass shop.

In the US there's such a surplus of used machine tools these days there's not much business for the new made non-Chinese (Harbor Freight, Grizzly, etc.) suppliers.

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1 hour ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

US on chinese aluminumhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-aluminum/u-s-finds-china-aluminum-foil-imports-dumped-subsidized-idUSKCN1GB2QQ

EU on chinese steelhttps://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-china-steel-trade-no-winners-in-europe-war-against-chinese-steel-market-anti-dumping-imports/

edit below: the evidence is pretty obvious - perhaps not in oz, because you've a vested interest in supplying china with supplies.

 

that the US doesn't have anyone trained to make shit anymore, much less the supply chain infrastructure, is an inescapable truth. Trumplicans war against academia & immigrants makes the problem for manufacturers even worse

ur kinda a dmg fuk…..

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3 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

guess that makes two of us.

The US has smart people who use the existing infrastructure to optimize the plant/factory to move goods through the manufacturing process.   

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4 minutes ago, warbird said:

The US has smart people who use the existing infrastructure to optimize the plant/factory to move goods through the manufacturing process.   

Yes. In my experience this involved importation of goods and heavy use of immigrant labor. Both highly skilled, skilled, and unskilled.

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

Uh dude ... Mismoyled Giblet or whatever is about as American as Coon Cheese and Tooheys Extra Dry.

Given that, you have a good point about our industrial machines, but remember these are not our core machines anymore.

If you want world class deposition equipment, nanoscale manufacturing gear, laser shock peening, ion etching, neutron sensing gear for airport security, hardened satellite systems, advanced wave guides and all the other detrius from the 2020 era economy, we still make some of the best stuff and at oddly competitive pricing.

That's wonderful (and I'm not disputing you).

How well is that sort of stuff going to work if or when China cuts off the source of rare earths?

Frankly if you were serious about protecting defence critical industries you'd be tariffing the fuck out of Chinese rare earths to get your domestic manufacturers off of their arse & make your own. Steel & aluminium are commodities. Rare earths aren't and the Chinese have a lock on the supply. Guess where they got the tech from in the first place?

I think the USA *should* tariff China on a number of items, to be honest. The Chinese are a bunch of mercantilist exploiters with no respect for IP in particular. However you guys gave them all the tools they needed to get there.

I'm well aware the USA can make some first class equipment - a lot of the oceanographic sampling gear I used to be responsible for was made in the USA. It's one of the reasons I'm so pissed off at your abdication from huge areas of the world marketplace.

FKT

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Just now, Fah Kiew Tu said:

That's wonderful (and I'm not disputing you).

How well is that sort of stuff going to work if or when China cuts off the source of rare earths?

Frankly if you were serious about protecting defence critical industries you'd be tariffing the fuck out of Chinese rare earths to get your domestic manufacturers off of their arse & make your own. Steel & aluminium are commodities. Rare earths aren't and the Chinese have a lock on the supply. Guess where they got the tech from in the first place?

I think the USA *should* tariff China on a number of items, to be honest. The Chinese are a bunch of mercantilist exploiters with no respect for IP in particular. However you guys gave them all the tools they needed to get there.

I'm well aware the USA can make some first class equipment - a lot of the oceanographic sampling gear I used to be responsible for was made in the USA. It's one of the reasons I'm so pissed off at your abdication from huge areas of the world marketplace.

FKT

First off, we are gradually building REE sourcing, it's happening slowly, but it's happening. It's happening slowly because we're not taking China's approach, which is pretty much the dirtiest possible approach of just stripping ore out of the ground, using batch processing to get what they need and then dumping the rest. Instead, we're taking a low-entropy approach (thank goodness) of combining the REE extraction using forms of in-situ leach with geothermal energy, oil and gas exploration, and possibly even ocean power. But for now, that gear is as dependent on REEs as any other machine that has microprocessors and advanced batteries. They could cut off the flow of components for iPhones, and it would cripple iPhone, but their needs are 1000x of the components as these, and the delivery of advanced engineering stuff isn't as critical time sensitive, they can always source a few hundred microprocessors or batteries.

Why are steel and aluminum commodities and REEs not? And I'm not really worried about steel and aluminum, we can add that capability as needed. I'm more worried about titanium refining, that's an area that we've "abdicated" and left to Eastern Europe. The last time I checked, there was one actual titanium refiner in the USA, and I'm not even sure of the actual capacity in that operation. I think most of what we have here processes the already refined titanium, it's some incredibly difficult stuff to refine, and incredibly common to source, beaches are full of the stuff.

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1 hour ago, warbird said:

The US has smart people who use the existing infrastructure to optimize the plant/factory to move goods through the manufacturing process.   

In other words you drive a truck.

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53 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

In other words you drive a truck.

Drove a truck. Wackbird is 85 years old, or maybe 113 like Joe Louis.

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

Why are steel and aluminum commodities and REEs not? And I'm not really worried about steel and aluminum, we can add that capability as needed. I'm more worried about titanium refining, that's an area that we've "abdicated" and left to Eastern Europe. The last time I checked, there was one actual titanium refiner in the USA, and I'm not even sure of the actual capacity in that operation. I think most of what we have here processes the already refined titanium, it's some incredibly difficult stuff to refine, and incredibly common to source, beaches are full of the stuff.

REE's aren't commodities for the obvious reason - limited volume and limited sources. As you well know.

You guys still do make a lot of steel. Some of the specialty steels come from overseas, that's a function of volume as well. It makes far more sense for Canada to make aluminium, it's basically frozen electricity and vast amounts of hydro power plus bauxite give wonderful synergies.

That was the problem with Trump's tariffs - they actually made no sense for a lot of things on the list. Nobody is going to build steel plants like those in the 1950's - you guys make pretty much the same tonnage now as then with something like 1/20 of the workforce. That isn't going to change.

Got to admit I'm sitting in the cheap seats watching the show. If China has to stop some of its more outrageous practices that'll be good for everyone. OTOH so would consigning the Mickey Mouse copyright issue to the bin, plus the endless attempts by the big pharma companies to 'evergreen' patents by making minor tweaks and attempting to withhold clinical trial data. Not to mention doing their best to get the USA to heavy us & others about bargaining for better prices on drugs for our pharmaceutical benefits system. So basically my attitude is 'a pox on both of you' because neither party has clean hands. At least China isn't as hypocritical - and they buy lots of red & black dirt off of us. Our US-Australia trade imbalance is massively in your favour so by Trump's logic we should tariff all your exports to us.   Bet that'd go down well......

FKT

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11 hours ago, Raz'r said:

Regardless. Please.

unless you like being clunky:

Irregardless is a nonstandard synonym for regardless, which means “without concern as to advice, warning, or hardship,” or “heedless.” Its nonstandard status is due to the double negative construction of the prefix ir- with the suffix -less. ... The bottom line is that irregardless is indeed a word, albeit a clunky one.

I deliberately use it because I know it annoys many of you here.  As evadent. :D

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11 hours ago, Mark K said:

That said...there has to be some sort of happy medium in there somewhere. Have to deliver the bad news with a plan, and emphasis on the plan. Unfortunately there has to be the gentle but firm assertion that some people are ignorant in there somewhere too. That takes time for explanerating. Have to get away from the sound-bite addicted press to do much of that or they will fuck ya every time. 

Totally agree.  And the last part about the press is the tricky one.  But it's not just the sound bite addicted press, it's also the short attention span electorate who would struggle to last much past a 30 sec sound bite.  Chicken or egg?  

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9 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

In other words you drive a truck.

No, retired from R&D methods and test. Did manage a mining operation for years that included operating heavy equipment and driving a truck sometimes.

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1 hour ago, BillDBastard said:

....     ...     ...

So if you please, do not consider me like the rest of you partisan hacks in here. You all are the problem, both sides of the aisle. And until you all stop pointing at the other side and declaring them the root of all evil, nothing will change....   ...    ...

8q1a06.jpg

-DSK

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8 hours ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

REE's aren't commodities for the obvious reason - limited volume and limited sources. As you well know.

You guys still do make a lot of steel. Some of the specialty steels come from overseas, that's a function of volume as well. It makes far more sense for Canada to make aluminium, it's basically frozen electricity and vast amounts of hydro power plus bauxite give wonderful synergies.

That was the problem with Trump's tariffs - they actually made no sense for a lot of things on the list. Nobody is going to build steel plants like those in the 1950's - you guys make pretty much the same tonnage now as then with something like 1/20 of the workforce. That isn't going to change.

Got to admit I'm sitting in the cheap seats watching the show. If China has to stop some of its more outrageous practices that'll be good for everyone. OTOH so would consigning the Mickey Mouse copyright issue to the bin, plus the endless attempts by the big pharma companies to 'evergreen' patents by making minor tweaks and attempting to withhold clinical trial data. Not to mention doing their best to get the USA to heavy us & others about bargaining for better prices on drugs for our pharmaceutical benefits system. So basically my attitude is 'a pox on both of you' because neither party has clean hands. At least China isn't as hypocritical - and they buy lots of red & black dirt off of us. Our US-Australia trade imbalance is massively in your favour so by Trump's logic we should tariff all your exports to us.   Bet that'd go down well......

FKT

First, I'm not clear on why you don't consider REEs a commodity ... The sources aren't limited, every region in the world that I know has lots of them, because there are so many different kinds. We have plenty of them in the USA, as do you in Oz. The reason so few countries produce them is because China is selling them cheap, and also because it's incredibly difficult to extract them since they don't vein in epithermal vents like gold, copper and silver. It's even more expensive to extract them from all that ore in a clean way, which even China doesn't bother doing.

REEs are a key manufacturing component like steel and polymers, why does the volume even matter? By that logic, I could argue that steel isn't a commodity because the volume used in industry is insignificant compared to the volume of water needed to make the energy to run industrial processes. Do you consider water a commodity?

As for the Australian - US trade imbalance, your population is so tiny there, I'm not sure that any additional tariffs on U.S. products would even register much more than a blip here.

But part of the reason you have a trade imbalance with us is similar to the reason we have a trade imbalance with China, because your population is small compared to our's, just as our population is small compared to China's. We can't justify a lot of industries anymore. For instance with the machines you love, if we committed our engineers to making that kind of product we wouldn't be able to compete with India and China anyway, so we commit to more advanced machines like ellipsometers and neutron etching gear.

Australia can't compete with the USA in every area, so you folks concentrate on a handful of super advanced industries like mining automation and quantum optics. You and I discussed this some time ago regarding CSIRO funding.

As for Trump's tariffs, I agree that they could have been done much better, but this is what happens when someone assembles a team based on politics rather than expertise! Obama got the best people for thy job, Trump doesn't always do that. Sometimes he gets lucky, and -- for instance -- his politically motivated pick for DOE head turned out to be a rockstar. But luck isn't common.

This is roughly the same reason why a Canadian hockey team can't bring home a Stanley Cup for over 25 years ... because it's their national sport, and they tend to slightly favor Canadian players. The USA fans don't care, there is little nationalism for hockey in places like LA, Denver, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa, etc., they fill lines as needed with Finns, Russians, Canadians, Czechs. 

Finally, your comparison between China and the USA is kind of silly. We don't buy as much "red and black dirt" from you because the shipping would suck, our West Coast doesn't tend to need a lot of that, we need it on our East Coast. And we buy the high value stuff from you, with which there is an actual future, like medical technology, computing, media and advertising.

 

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8 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

I deliberately use it because I know it annoys many of you here.  As evadent. :D

You don't need the extra effort - you just naturally annoy most of the people here.

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44 minutes ago, mikewof said:

But part of the reason you have a trade imbalance with us is similar to the reason we have a trade imbalance with China, because your population is small compared to our's, just as our population is small compared to China's. We can't justify a lot of industries anymore. For instance with the machines you love, if we committed our engineers to making that kind of product we wouldn't be able to compete with India and China anyway, so we commit to more advanced machines like ellipsometers and neutron etching gear.

I love Cliff doing econ theory.

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2 hours ago, BillDBastard said:

So if you please, do not consider me like the rest of you partisan hacks in here. You all are the problem, both sides of the aisle. And until you all stop pointing at the other side and declaring them the root of all evil, nothing will change.

Pretty hard for me to be partisan in a foreign country.

And just by the way - we and many other countries manage to do a lot better than you at these things so maybe, just maybe our "partisan hack" comments have some validity.

But of course, nowhere is like the USA is it?

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10 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

I deliberately use it because I know it annoys many of you here.  As evadent. :D

That's one of the things wrong with this forum.

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1 hour ago, BillDBastard said:

Kindly name one.

Softwood lumber, especially yellow cedar and other high quality wood used in non-US markets.  UK and Russia for hardwoods.  The technology and business processes are so more advanced than the US. The business processes stand in the way of acquiring the advanced technology.  In other words, the privately held forests in the US southeast are holding the US industries back.  Nothing to do with subsidies, just a better way of doing business.

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3 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

You don't need the extra effort - you just naturally annoy most of the people here.

Winning! :lol:

  • Like 1

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6 hours ago, BillDBastard said:

Kindly name one.

I can think of four ...

1. Advanced and designer polymers

2. Virtual water

3. Healthcare Infotech

4. Indoor agriculture

I can't include Cleantech like others would, because the dirty secret of Canadian industry is that they often dump their debris south of their border, the same way the USA dumps our debris south of our border.

 

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8 hours ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

I love Cliff doing econ theory.

And yet, oddly enough, CSIRO does exactly what I describe. Thus you amusingly can't tell the difference between "econ theory" and actual policy of your own country. 

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22 minutes ago, mikewof said:

And yet, oddly enough, CSIRO does exactly what I describe. Thus you amusingly can't tell the difference between "econ theory" and actual policy of your own country. 

last I checked I've a yank passport and live in Trumplandia, but whatever bullshit you need cliff.

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5 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

last I checked I've a yank passport and live in Trumplandia, but whatever bullshit you need cliff.

Ah, apologies, then I guess that explains why you assume that CSIRO actual policy is "econ theory."

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7 hours ago, BillDBastard said:

Kindly name one.

Name one what?

You were talking about partisan animosity and that is what I responded to. We (and others) don't have it like you do.

And we don't elect creatures like Trump. Well, the Italians did elect Berlusconi but then they are Italian.

And we don't have a politicized Supreme Court.

And......

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4 hours ago, mikewof said:

I can think of four ...

1. Advanced and designer polymers

2. Virtual water

3. Healthcare Infotech

4. Indoor agriculture

I can't include Cleantech like others would, because the dirty secret of Canadian industry is that they often dump their debris south of their border, the same way the USA dumps our debris south of our border.

 

It was the only way to get rid of Malarkey.

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13 hours ago, mikewof said:

First, I'm not clear on why you don't consider REEs a commodity ... The sources aren't limited, every region in the world that I know has lots of them, because there are so many different kinds. We have plenty of them in the USA, as do you in Oz. The reason so few countries produce them is because China is selling them cheap, and also because it's incredibly difficult to extract them since they don't vein in epithermal vents like gold, copper and silver. It's even more expensive to extract them from all that ore in a clean way, which even China doesn't bother doing.

In theory they're a commodity because they're everywhere in the environment.

In practice, *at this point in time* they are *not* a commodity because of restricted sources of supply and volumes.

Probably like aluminium prior to the 20th Century.

Now if 10 (picking a number) suppliers in different countries were offering rare earths, I'd say they were now a commodity.

FKT

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12 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

In theory they're a commodity because they're everywhere in the environment.

In practice, *at this point in time* they are *not* a commodity because of restricted sources of supply and volumes.

Probably like aluminium prior to the 20th Century.

Now if 10 (picking a number) suppliers in different countries were offering rare earths, I'd say they were now a commodity.

FKT

The number is 10 to define a commodity? Seems arbitrary, but okay, I guess there about about 6 or 7 REE producing countries at the moment, less than 10, not a commodity?

So then Titanium is not a commodity either? Since -- as far as I know -- there are even fewer countries that can fully refine titanium than REEs. Titanium, not a commodity.

I think of a commodity as something that can be bought and sold. Seems simpler.

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Want a really good reason to tariff the fuck out of China? Assuming this is true of course, doing something to cut them off at the knees is way overdue.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/stealth-doorway-china-s-stunning-server-hack-shows-its-true-hand-20181008-p508co.html

FKT

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11 hours ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Want a really good reason to tariff the fuck out of China? Assuming this is true of course, doing something to cut them off at the knees is way overdue.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/stealth-doorway-china-s-stunning-server-hack-shows-its-true-hand-20181008-p508co.html

FKT

Yep, they've been pulling this shit for decades now.  Its the only way they've become a major economy is because they cheated and copied their way there.

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26 minutes ago, Shootist Jeff said:

Yep, they've been pulling this shit for decades now.  Its the only way they've become a major economy is because they cheated and copied their way there.

That's true - the bit you elide over is, they did it with the full assistance of the US corporations who wanted to boost their profit margins by dumping expensive workers and safety/environmental laws.

FKT

 

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11 hours ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Want a really good reason to tariff the fuck out of China? Assuming this is true of course, doing something to cut them off at the knees is way overdue.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/stealth-doorway-china-s-stunning-server-hack-shows-its-true-hand-20181008-p508co.html

FKT

 

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16 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:
45 minutes ago, Shootist Jeff said:

Yep, they've been pulling this shit for decades now.  Its the only way they've become a major economy is because they cheated and copied their way there.

That's true - the bit you elide over is, they did it with the full assistance of the US corporations who wanted to boost their profit margins by dumping expensive workers and safety/environmental laws.

FKT

Ish.  Maybe early on, but when it became apparent Jhyna was stealing IP or forcing US companies to turn over IP and then they would blatantly copy it, and sell it and drive the original IP holder out of business - I think the practice was more frowned upon.

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1 minute ago, Shootist Jeff said:

Ish.  Maybe early on, but when it became apparent Jhyna was stealing IP or forcing US companies to turn over IP and then they would blatantly copy it, and sell it and drive the original IP holder out of business - I think the practice was more frowned upon.

Still doing business there, though.

Be better off using Mexico as the cheap labour source.

I kind of admire China for the way they basically screwed over those multinationals who thought they were going to exploit a bunch of ignorant peasants and make even bigger profits. OK, what China did in forcing domestic partners and stealing IP was pretty rank (it still is pretty rank). Nobody made the corporations agree though. Turns out they weren't so smart after all and a focus on short-term P&L doesn't work out that great when dealing with a *big* country that can take a longer view.

I still don't like China's practices, though, but I do admire their rat-cunning.

FKT

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On 10/7/2018 at 11:11 AM, mikewof said:

First, I'm not clear on why you don't consider REEs a commodity ... The sources aren't limited, every region in the world that I know has lots of them, because there are so many different kinds. We have plenty of them in the USA, as do you in Oz. The reason so few countries produce them is because China is selling them cheap, and also because it's incredibly difficult to extract them since they don't vein in epithermal vents like gold, copper and silver.

This is truth.  Rare earths aren't rare.  At all.  Extracting and refining them is heavily polluting because of the chemicals used.  That's generically true because the rare earths themselves are so chemically similar, it takes a lot of work to separate them.

The global supply chain basically involves China roughing out a bunch of ore and then selling it to refiners around the world who clean up the purity.  If you're Rhone-Poulenc, it's cheaper to buy the 98% CeO2 chinese powder and turn in into 99.999% optical grade and sell it than run some factory in the DRC.

Outsourcing pollution and all that stuff we don't like to talk about.

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23 hours ago, Ishmael said:

More winning. Ford lost a $billion due to Trump's tariffs and are laying off 24,000 workers. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6254701/Ford-planning-lay-thousands-worldwide-Trumps-tariffs-cost-U-S-car-giant-1BILLION.html

Ish, did you even read the article or did you just key on the headline??

Here's some highlights:

  • 24K laid off Globally - Boo FUCKING Hoo if workers in Jyhna's ford plants are losing their jobs.
  • On Jun 15th, the Trump Tariffs were announced and they didn't go into effect until 6th July.  Ford announced a $25.5B restructuring plan on 25th July.  NFW they came up with this in a month in response to the tariffs.  Utter BS.  This had to have been in the works for months and months for something that big.  No way the tariffs were even being felt that quickly.
Quote

We are in the early stages of reorganizing our global salaried workforce to support the company's strategic objectives, create a more dynamic and empowering work environment, and become more fit as a business,’ Ford said late Friday.

  • There were other market forces going on that were impacting Ford Bigly well before the trump tariffs were ever announced.  Ford was on the wrong side of the market demand for SUVs and were all in for building small sedans in China.  
Quote

In April, Ford surprised many analysts by announcing massive cost-cutting targets and plans to phase out many sedans in North America amid surging demand for sport-utility vehicles and other trucks.

  • Ford was already massively cost cutting several months BEFORE the Tariffs were even announced.

RIF.  Sorry, this is much ado about nothing.  

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Just now, Shootist Jeff said:
  • On Jun 15th, the Trump Tariffs were announced and they didn't go into effect until 6th July.  Ford announced a $25.5B restructuring plan on 25th July.  NFW they came up with this in a month in response to the tariffs.  Utter BS.  This had to have been in the works for months and months for something that big.  No way the tariffs were even being felt that quickly.

If it was good news you can bet your ass that the Trump tariffs would be getting the credit.

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3 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

If it was good news you can bet your ass that the Trump tariffs would be getting the credit.

WTF does that even mean or have to do with the subject at hand???  Can you actually address my point, or are you only into "Whataboutism"?  

Oh wait, nevermind - I looked at who I responded to after I wrote that ^^ and realized that was a dumb question.

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Pretty well the only kind you ask.

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1 hour ago, daddle said:

Uh oh. This reliably conservative paper says that Trump's tariffs are now costing the U.S. taxpayer MORE than Obamacare:

$42B vs. $35B

Whoops! Which is the tax and spend party now?

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/trumps-tariffs-now-cost-americans-more-than-obamacare-taxes

Sometimes you gotta spend money to make money.....

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On 3/5/2018 at 3:40 AM, shaggybaxter said:

Whilst Trump plays tiddlywinks with global trade, lumping American allies and competitors for the top dog crown all in one basket, at least he’s uniting the rest of the world and giving them a common goal. 

The revised PTPP, renamed as the CPTPP, is bubbling along nicely. Not only that, the RCEP is becoming an even more serious power bloc too, albeit with tougher challenges.

What’s noticeable is the commitment to trading borders remain open and more determined than ever, but specifically not to the US if Trump continues his isolationist approach. Short summation below:

Conclusion of CPTPP does not deliver the big strategic goal of keeping the US entrenched in Asia. However, it still sends to Mr Trump a message on the region's commitment to openness. Holding the line and pushing back against growing protectionist sentiment keeps up the pressure. It could add momentum for broader liberalisation in Asia by facilitating expansion of membership and by lifting the ambition in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an agreement being negotiated by the 10 ASEAN members as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.
 

RCEP includes some of the largest and most dynamic economies in the world and is important enough to make a difference globally. An Australian Productivity Commission study estimates that even if tariffs were raised 15 percentage points globally (similar to what happened in the Great Depression), RCEP countries could all continue economic expansion if they abolished tariffs as a group. The gains for RCEP countries would be even larger with behind-the-border reforms.

Australia has a trade deficit on trade to the US by almost double, and have been told we are not exempt from the Trump steel and alloy tariffs. Talk about pushing away your trading partners.

Actions have consequences. It’s a shame Trump’s just too thick to think more than one sound bite ahead. 

Some unelected hack crackpot named Pettit Navarro who has been free reign to impose tariffs left right and center.

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Shitstain won ND by 35% so I'm having a hard time feeling sorry for their soybean farmers.

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2 hours ago, Olsonist said:

Shitstain won ND by 35% so I'm having a hard time feeling sorry for their soybean farmers.

I'm curious if they'll just bend over or vote D.

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ND will take it up the ass. ND also pays more in Federal tax revenues than they take in in Federal spending, a lot more. But they elect their representatives and they have 2 Senators for their population of 750,000. If they were a city, they'd rank 5th in CA. This is on them.

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4 hours ago, Blue Crab said:

I'm curious if they'll just bend over or vote D.

 Bend. 

Those migrant caravans is terrifying. 

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US soybean sales to China down 94 percent amid Trump tariffs: report

Quote

 

U.S. soybean exports to China are down by 94 percent this year amid President Trump's trade war with Beijing.

The New York Times reported Monday that the latest federal data, which tracked up to mid-October, showed a dramatic drop in sales to China, which is by far the world's biggest soybean importer.

However, federal data through September show that soybean exports are up 1 percent over all this year above where they were at this time in 2017. 

Eighty-seven percent of the reported 110 million tons of soybeans China consumed in 2017 were imported, largely from the U.S. or Brazil.

Though many soybean farmers expressed trust in Trump and his protectionist trade agenda, others told the Times that they were unhappy with the effect Beijing's retaliatory tariffs have had on their business. 

“I’m trying to follow and figure out who the winners are in this tariff war,” said Greg Gebeke, who farms 5,000 acres outside of Arthur, N.D. “I know who one of the losers are and that’s us. And that’s painful.”

 

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/415028-us-soybean-sales-to-china-down-94-after-tariffs

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21 minutes ago, Mid said:

“I’m trying to follow and figure out who the winners are in this tariff war,” said Greg Gebeke

Tax wars are going to benefit the governments that receive the taxes and cost anyone else.

The ability to hand out subsidies when the above happens is also going to benefit the governments that hand out the goodies and cost everyone else.

 

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American businesses paid 50% more in tariffs in September due to Trump's trade war, industry coalition says

  • Quote

     

    • U.S. businesses shelled out $4.4 billion in tariffs in September, a surge of more than 50 percent from the same month a year ago, according to an industry coalition called Tariffs Hurt the Heartland.
    • Duties on steel and aluminum imports cost U.S. companies about $545 million in September, the data show.
    • Tariffs levied against China accounted for $800 million in September, even though the bulk didn't take effect until the end of the month.

     

     

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/tariff-payments-up-50percent-in-september-on-trump-trade-war-industry-group.html

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1 hour ago, Mid said:

American businesses paid 50% more in tariffs in September due to Trump's trade war, industry coalition says

  •  

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/tariff-payments-up-50percent-in-september-on-trump-trade-war-industry-group.html

So basically tariffs are good for US Govt tax revenue and farmers.

Brazilian farmers.

FKT

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19 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

So basically tariffs are good for US Govt tax revenue and farmers.

Brazilian farmers.

FKT

May as well enjoy the products coming from Brazil while they can. Who knows what the hell the new guy is going to do there, but it probably isn't good.

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7 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

May as well enjoy the products coming from Brazil while they can. Who knows what the hell the new guy is going to do there, but it probably isn't good.

clear cut the rain forest to grow crops for export that your policys make export impossible for is so Trumpian I pray to gods I don't believe in that enable pedophilia it's only a US thing.

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3 hours ago, Ishmael said:

May as well enjoy the products coming from Brazil while they can. Who knows what the hell the new guy is going to do there, but it probably isn't good.

Umm, the Brazilians are supplanting the US exports of soybeans etc to China. Makes no difference to me, I don't live in the USA, Brazil or China. OK if China's economy takes a dump that will affect Australian exports and might have some effect. Second or third order effects though.

OTOH your farmers are taking it up the arse thanks to Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports. Do you feel like you're winning yet?

I still think that China needs to be taken to task about their predatory mercantilist practices and outright theft of IP but what Trump has done is really a massive own-goal for the US economy.

FKT

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44 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Umm, the Brazilians are supplanting the US exports of soybeans etc to China. Makes no difference to me, I don't live in the USA, Brazil or China. OK if China's economy takes a dump that will affect Australian exports and might have some effect. Second or third order effects though.

OTOH your farmers are taking it up the arse thanks to Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports. Do you feel like you're winning yet?

I still think that China needs to be taken to task about their predatory mercantilist practices and outright theft of IP but what Trump has done is really a massive own-goal for the US economy.

FKT

It's all good for me, being Canadian and all. However, I don't have a lot of that "winning" feeling. I think everyone's taking it in the arse on this one, no matter who "wins".

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39 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

It's all good for me, being Canadian and all. However, I don't have a lot of that "winning" feeling. I think everyone's taking it in the arse on this one, no matter who "wins".

Sorry, forgot you weren't a US citizen. Trump's tariffs on Canadian aluminium has to rate right at the top of stupid things to do.

FKT

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11 hours ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Sorry, forgot you weren't a US citizen. Trump's tariffs on Canadian aluminium has to rate right at the top of stupid things to do.

FKT

Well, there is a trove of stupid things to pick from, but that one and the steel tariffs are definitely near the top.

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How about picking things that aren't stupid?

That would be a short list.

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I work in a retail hardware store.  The past month, I have spent about 20% of my time doing price changes.  The bosses are spending 1-2 hours a day updating them.

At least the price increases are partially covering the carrying cost of some of the obscure items.  The 3/4 drive ratchet went up $5.00, but has been hanging on the wall for 5 years.

 

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No idea which thread to put this in but it sounds right.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/trump-s-2-1-trillion-deal-with-the-devil-has-failed-20181108-p50eom.html

Donald Trump's economic deal with the devil has failed even in its most immediate and cynical objective. It is downhill on every front from now on. The president debased the US public accounts with a Peronist fiscal policy of staggering irresponsibility in order to keep control of Congress - or rather to buy Congress with $US1.5 trillion ($2.1 trillion) of future public debt, might be a better description.

 

The sugar rush of stimulus so late in the economic cycle is already starting to fade. Over the course of 2019 the Faustian pact will progressively close in on Mr Trump, and on the credit-rating of the US Treasury. Morgan Stanley said it will turn ineluctably into "fiscal drag" as the months pass without more handouts to feed the monster.

Perhaps Speaker Nancy Pelosi will give Trump a partial reprieve. Common ground exists on infrastructure spending. But the Democrats will keep him on a tight leash before the next election. "They are not going to give him anything to run on, any victories," said Steve Blitz from TS Lombard.

 

Ominous signs are already evident in sectors most sensitive to higher borrowing costs. The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has risen 100 basis points to 4.83 per cent over the last year. Home sales have dropped by 21 per cent. Average prices have slipped 3.5 per cent.

RELATED ARTICLE

 

Despite Democratic gains, Trump's race-baiting pays off

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This is remarkable given that the fiscal pedal is pushed to floor. The federal budget deficit is nearing 5per cent of GDP, at a time when full employment should restore balance. Bill Clinton had a surplus of 2.3 per cent at the end of the Nineties expansion.

The US has never run a late-cycle deficit of this scale in peace time yet the stimulus has washed over the economy like a deluge of rain on parched soil, a flash flood that leaves only damage. "They have had a terrible bang for the buck," said Adam Posen, chairman of the Peterson Institute.

"They are racking up debt with a low fiscal multiplier. The tax cuts have not unleashed investment and have added almost nothing to GDP on a sustained basis," he said. What remains is an overheated economy with early signs of stagflation.

 

Above all, there remains the future debt claims on American taxpayers. The International Monetary Fund says America's gross public debt will be 106 per cent of GDP this year, 110 per cent in 2020, and 117 per cent in 2023, but without the huge pool of internal savings and external assets that have made it possible for Japan to defy gravity for two decades.

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Fake news. 

Happy Jack says tax cuts balance budgets. 

Obviously, President Trump knows this, as well.

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U.S. Trade Deficit Rises Despite Trump’s Tariffs

Quote

 

The monthly items deficit grew by $1 billion in October, in response to a US Census report launched Wednesday.

The Census report is among the first measures of commerce launched since Trump imposed his largest round of tariffs in September on $200 billion of Chinese goods. It put a 10% tax on items starting from luggage to bikes and baseball gloves. Trump has threatened to extend the speed to 25% on January 1.

The duties make it costlier for US importers to buy these gadgets, but People purchased extra items from overseas in October than they did the month earlier than. The determine might mirror stockpiling by American importers ahead of a further hike in tariffs set to take impact in January, as properly as robust shopper spending.

“There’s some anecdotal proof that US importers are probably pulling forward orders to get ahead of further tariffs on Chinese language goods, which might be one of many elements driving imports larger in current months,” stated Pooja Sriram, an economist at Barclays.

 

https://buzzbry.com/u-s-trade-deficit-rises-despite-trumps-tariffs/

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On 11/6/2018 at 8:30 PM, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Umm, the Brazilians are supplanting the US exports of soybeans etc to China. Makes no difference to me, I don't live in the USA, Brazil or China. OK if China's economy takes a dump that will affect Australian exports and might have some effect. Second or third order effects though.

OTOH your farmers are taking it up the arse thanks to Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports. Do you feel like you're winning yet?

I still think that China needs to be taken to task about their predatory mercantilist practices and outright theft of IP but what Trump has done is really a massive own-goal for the US economy.

FKT

So far the farmers seem willing to get butt-fucked by a city-slicker conman in a cheap suit (with an illegal immigrant wife) by convincing themselves that there is a "long-game" being played (by the con who only knows short-game bankruptcies) and by being bribed by a 12 billion dollar welfare program (but they still hate socialism.)

So situation normal, all fucked up.

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Untitled.jpg.c81eb84f28cdfd3da0ec7943334ce3a0.jpg

*Percentage of GDP from industries helped by tariffs minus perentage of GDP from industries hurt by tariffs. Calculations don’t include harm to industries that use in their manufacturing Chinese goods subject to tariffs. Note: Statewide election result used for Alaska

Sources: Moody's Analytics (net impact); Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (election results) Kara Dapena/The Wall Street Journal

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bring-me-tariffshow-trump-and-xi-drove-their-countries-to-the-brink-of-a-trade-war-1543420440

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4 hours ago, Mid said:

Untitled.jpg.c81eb84f28cdfd3da0ec7943334ce3a0.jpg

*Percentage of GDP from industries helped by tariffs minus perentage of GDP from industries hurt by tariffs. Calculations don’t include harm to industries that use in their manufacturing Chinese goods subject to tariffs. Note: Statewide election result used for Alaska

Sources: Moody's Analytics (net impact); Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (election results) Kara Dapena/The Wall Street Journal

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bring-me-tariffshow-trump-and-xi-drove-their-countries-to-the-brink-of-a-trade-war-1543420440

Good read.

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Thai rubber farms stretched as US-China trade war saps demand

Quote

 

Thai latex makes everything from tires and condoms to baby pacifiers and surgical gloves, the fruit of the rubber trees cultivated across endless acres of the country.

But the rubber trade is at a crossroads as a bitter dispute between the world’s two biggest economies ricochets across Southeast Asia with unexpected consequences.

Countries such as Vietnam are benefiting as manufacturers migrate from China to avoid punishing tariffs on exports to the US.

 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/11/29/asia-pacific/thai-rubber-farms-stretched-us-china-trade-war-saps-demand/#.W_-ghWgzbIU

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