shaggybaxter

Who really believes tariffs are good business

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I wonder if the steel industry is tired of winning yet?
 

Quote

 

...

Domestic steel prices spiked in the months after Trump imposed his tariffs on imported steel, but the higher prices (and larger issues, including the uncertainty created by Trump's trade war) slackened demand for steel and prices have now fallen below pre-tariff levels. Lower prices have translated into less revenue for steelmakers, and the jolt once provided by the tariffs is now gone. The three biggest U.S. steelmakers—Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and U.S. Steel—are all expected to fall short of their third quarter projections.

U.S. Steel seems to be in particularly bad shape. In a warning to shareholders issued last week, the Pittsburgh-based company said it expects to lose 35 cents per share during the third quarter, after previously projecting losses of just 6 cents per share. Since the steel tariffs took effect in March 2018, U.S. Steel's stock has fallen by a whopping 75 percent—from a high of $45 in the days after the steel tariffs were announced to a value of just $10.50 per share on Tuesday morning. Nucor stock is down about 25 percent since March 2018, while Steel Dynamics has seen a 30 percent drop.

...

 

Ouch.

If they rebuild much more their stock price could be zero.

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Well the news keeps on getting worse Donnie is so winning the tariff war.

Partial from Reuters

Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) - It’s no longer a probability, it’s a reality: the escalating U.S.-China trade war and the strengthening dollar appear to be inflicting measurable damage on U.S. goods makers that rely on global markets. 

FILE PHOTO: A Wall St. street sign is seen near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 17, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

Market participants will get a picture of the extent to which trade tensions and currency have hurt U.S. manufacturers when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases its purchasing managers index (PMI) USPMI=ECI for September on Tuesday. 

Its August report showed the manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 12% of the U.S. economy, contracting in for the first time in 3-1/2 years, and more worryingly, its export component hit a more than 10-year low. 

“The exporters are at least a half a step or full step closer to the predicted recession,” said Robert Pavlik, chief investment strategist, senior portfolio manager at SlateStone Wealth LLC in New York. 

The August report’s New Export Orders plunged to 43.3, its lowest level since April 2009, when the United States was in the throes of the great recession. 

A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction.

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In the August PMI survey, manufacturers told ISM “business is starting to show signs of a broad slowdown,” and that “tariffs continue to be a strain on the supply chain and the economy overall.” 

China already has implemented tariffs on about $110 billion in U.S. goods, in return for President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports. Beijing announced additional retaliatory increases in August. The first tranche took effect at the beginning of this month and the second is due to follow on Dec. 15. 

U.S. goods would already be more expensive on global markets due to a stronger dollar, which has been boosted by simmering geopolitical unease and negative interest rates in Europe. Market-rattling tit-for-tat tariff hikes from Washington and Beijing have created a perfect storm. 

“Geopolitical tensions do two things,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. “They compel big companies to sit back and not spend as much as they would.” 

“And as tensions increase and the dollar rises, (U.S.)products become more expensive and you see demand fall off.” 

End

Winning Tariff Wars is so easy right?

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Q3 GDP forecast to be in the 1.7% range.  Imagine, we've only had to ruin our standing in the world and grab some pussy to get there.

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In a blunt speech to the annual United Nations General Assembly, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said: “Erecting walls will not resolve global challenges, and blaming others for one’s own problems does not work. The lessons of the Great Depression should not be forgotten.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-assembly-china/in-swipe-at-trump-china-tells-u-n-tariffs-could-plunge-world-into-recession-idUSKBN1WC26W

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8 hours ago, Navig8tor said:

Photo taken at the recent US China Trade talks.

Who do you think is winning?

0ada61b20636d4d85655c0cbdbff3a6e88a4c6cb

That picture looks like it was taken just after the main course crawled off their plates and into their laps.

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So very winning, everyones sayin it.

 

From AXIOS

Nearly 40% of 2019 farm income will come from federal aid and insurance

Harvested corn.
 
Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The Agriculture Department projects that farm incomes will reach $88 billion in 2019 but nearly 40% of that — $33 billion — will come from trade aid, disaster assistance, the farm bill and insurance indemnities, according to a new report by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF).

Why it matters: Farmers — a critical constituency for President Trump in the 2020 presidential election — are feeling the squeeze from China’s retaliatory tariffs, extreme weather and record-high farm debt that's driving farm bankruptcies.

By the numbers: In a 12-month period ending in September 2019, Chapter 12 farm or fishery bankruptcies totaled 580 filings, up 24% from a year earlier and the most since 2011, when 676 chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed.

  • Wisconsin experienced the highest Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings at 48 filings, followed by 37 filings in Georgia, Nebraska and Kansas.
  • Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Wisconsin and West Virginia reported Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings on par with or above 10-year highs
  • Yes, but: The AFBF noted that the Chapter 12 filings remain well below the historical highs in the 1980s.

The big picture: "The support provided to farmers in 2018 and 2019 is expected to alleviate some of the financial stress, however, not all farmers will benefit from trade assistance, farm bill programs, crop insurance or disaster aid. As a result, it could take some time for the financial relief to manifest in the farm bankruptcy trends," per the AFBF.

Go deeper: Farm aid from Trump’s trade war has cost more than double the 2009 auto bailout

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Yet the last I heard they still support the Republicans.

It's unfixable according to Ron White.

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Personally, I think Trump has let the cookie out of the cookie jar.. a way to raise taxes without anyone in either party having to actually cast a vote!

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/07/749163931/trumps-tariff-bounty-how-much-the-u-s-has-brought-in-and-where-the-money-is-goin

$63 billion by the summer.  And both parties get to run on the 'no new taxes' platform?  And the money goes into the Treasury directly and isn't necessarily covered by any congressional-dealing since it's 'new money'?  Just goes into the general fund and sloshes around. 

--- Guaranteed the next president won't reset them to zero, regardless of party.  

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2 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

Personally, I think Trump has let the cookie out of the cookie jar.. a way to raise taxes without anyone in either party having to actually cast a vote!

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/07/749163931/trumps-tariff-bounty-how-much-the-u-s-has-brought-in-and-where-the-money-is-goin

$63 billion by the summer.  And both parties get to run on the 'no new taxes' platform?  And the money goes into the Treasury directly and isn't necessarily covered by any congressional-dealing since it's 'new money'?  Just goes into the general fund and sloshes around. 

--- Guaranteed the next president won't reset them to zero, regardless of party.  

Well, it is a consumption tax which seems to be regarded as fair elsewhere in the tax universe.

 

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Just now, Saorsa said:

Well, it is a consumption tax which seems to be regarded as fair elsewhere in the tax universe.

Actually it's widely regarded as regressive elsewhere in the tax universe.

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16 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

Well, it is a consumption tax which seems to be regarded as fair elsewhere in the tax universe.

The most important aspect is that no congressman or senator actually has to VOTE to raise taxes.  God forbid that!!!  It just happens like CHRISTMAS!

We'll see if I'm proven wrong - but I'm betting not.  This is easy money.   BTW: Yes, it's a tax on Americans but frankly, it's an easy one to pay (and collect) and one of the big reasons we cut trade deals with So. Korea and, more importantly, updated NAFTA with Mexico.  China was fun but the growth window is closing we're reshoring south of the border.  Look to India next.

 

 

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1 hour ago, cmilliken said:

The most important aspect is that no congressman or senator actually has to VOTE to raise taxes.  God forbid that!!!  It just happens like CHRISTMAS!

We'll see if I'm proven wrong - but I'm betting not.  This is easy money.   BTW: Yes, it's a tax on Americans but frankly, it's an easy one to pay (and collect) and one of the big reasons we cut trade deals with So. Korea and, more importantly, updated NAFTA with Mexico.  China was fun but the growth window is closing we're reshoring south of the border.  Look to India next.

 

 

If we aren't going to exert military force the only war we can fight is economic and tariffs are one way to do that.

Here is another way to pick up some extra cash in the US and make China compete.

Drop this subsidy.

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26 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

Here is another way to pick up some extra cash in the US and make China compete.

Drop this subsidy.

Yes, that is an odd situation. I don’t think the USPS is subsidized by the US government. Plus last I heard the USPS likes the parcel delivery business. That asymmetric postal rate issue is much deeper. Somehow the Chinese are able to fly all that stuff here for cheap and then the USPS delivers it. Saves the savvy US consumer billions. I just got a carburetor for my weed whacker for a few bucks from China in just a few days. I bet the price at the local shop would be at least 10 times more plus I would have to drive there and fuss with the ignorant counter help, then it would be backordered anyways ... vs. about 3 minutes on eBay. Sounds like an economic benefit to me.

If I had to guess it is more related to the completely out-of-whack US parcel delivery pricing. And the crazy US wholesale middleman markups. UPS and FedEx bloated rates don’t seem to have any relation to the task at hand. Why would anyone reduce their parcel rates when the US consumer apparently doesn’t care?

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2 minutes ago, El Boracho said:

Yes, that is an odd situation. I don’t think the USPS is subsidized by the US government. Plus last I heard the USPS likes the parcel delivery business. That asymmetric postal rate issue is much deeper. Somehow the Chinese are able to fly all that stuff here for cheap and then the USPS delivers it. Saves the savvy US consumer billions. I just got a carburetor for my weed whacker for a few bucks from China in just a few days. I bet the price at the local shop would be at least 10 times more plus I would have to drive there and fuss with the ignorant counter help, then it would be backordered anyways ... vs. about 3 minutes on eBay. Sounds like an economic benefit to me.

If I had to guess it is more related to the completely out-of-whack US parcel delivery pricing. And the crazy US wholesale middleman markups. UPS and FedEx bloated rates don’t seem to have any relation to the task at hand. Why would anyone reduce their parcel rates when the US consumer apparently doesn’t care?

Right, it's subsidized by the USPS customers.  There was a time when the US actively encouraged imports from developing nations to help them grow their economy from exports not aid.  The government did run the post office at the time and the subsidies were paid then.  It wasn't a big deal at the time because there was very little personal importation of goods.  Some of the stuff is flown but a lot comes in in containers and the USPS has to deal with sorting all of it.

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1 hour ago, El Boracho said:

Yes, that is an odd situation. I don’t think the USPS is subsidized by the US government.

The USPS doesn't get federal monies but the Fed govt. sure took a lot from them in the form of pension funding.

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2 hours ago, El Boracho said:

Yes, that is an odd situation. I don’t think the USPS is subsidized by the US government. Plus last I heard the USPS likes the parcel delivery business. That asymmetric postal rate issue is much deeper. Somehow the Chinese are able to fly all that stuff here for cheap and then the USPS delivers it. Saves the savvy US consumer billions. I just got a carburetor for my weed whacker for a few bucks from China in just a few days. I bet the price at the local shop would be at least 10 times more plus I would have to drive there and fuss with the ignorant counter help, then it would be backordered anyways ... vs. about 3 minutes on eBay. Sounds like an economic benefit to me.

If I had to guess it is more related to the completely out-of-whack US parcel delivery pricing. And the crazy US wholesale middleman markups. UPS and FedEx bloated rates don’t seem to have any relation to the task at hand. Why would anyone reduce their parcel rates when the US consumer apparently doesn’t care?

This is the rare occasion where Saorsa has a point, and its not trolling.   The international rate needs to be renegotiated.    It’s cheaper to export a box from Shenzhen to Toledo then from Cleveland to Toledo.    At one time the US was a net exporter, and we negotiated a very favorable international postal deal with the world, where we agreed the expensive ‘final miles’ to the consumer  would be paid by the receiving country.    Now we import everything, and subsidize delivery for the foreign competition, not the Cleveland factory.    Trump actually got this one sorta right a couple years ago.    So he played golf and broke NAFTA, instead of fixing it.   

https://www.npr.org/2018/08/23/641140144/unraveling-the-mystery-behind-international-shipping-rates

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32 minutes ago, Lark said:

This is the rare occasion where Saorsa has a point, and its not trolling.   The international rate needs to be renegotiated.    It’s cheaper to export a box from Shenzhen to Toledo then from Cleveland to Toledo.    At one time the US was a net exporter, and we negotiated a very favorable international postal deal with the world, where we agreed the expensive ‘final miles’ to the consumer  would be paid by the receiving country.    Now we import everything, and subsidize delivery for the foreign competition, not the Cleveland factory.    Trump actually got this one sorta right a couple years ago.    So he played golf and broke NAFTA, instead of fixing it.   

https://www.npr.org/2018/08/23/641140144/unraveling-the-mystery-behind-international-shipping-rates

Fortunately, Trump does not manage the Post Office. He could never ever fix it. I try not to see these imbalances as some kind of simple country vs. country competition as Trumpists certainly do. The big losers here are the middlemen that lose their markup for doing essentially nothing but stand in the middle of (obstructing) the transaction to take their cut. The sooner these worthless idiots get a new profession the better. They should have seen the writing on the wall 20 years ago when internet commerce changed everything. Now the snowflakes whine about postal rate imbalances because their laughing all the way to the bank game might quit working.

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7 hours ago, El Boracho said:

If I had to guess it is more related to the completely out-of-whack US parcel delivery pricing. And the crazy US wholesale middleman markups. UPS and FedEx bloated rates don’t seem to have any relation to the task at hand. Why would anyone reduce their parcel rates when the US consumer apparently doesn’t care?

Pretty much. Every time I look on eBay for something ex USA, the postal charges are extortionate. The UK and France are way cheaper and faster to Australia.

Recent price on an item $75 for the item and $250-odd for delivery. It wasn't big or heavy, just not coming via USPS.

They didn't get the sale.

FKT

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10 hours ago, cmilliken said:

The most important aspect is that no congressman or senator actually has to VOTE to raise taxes.  God forbid that!!!  It just happens like CHRISTMAS!

We'll see if I'm proven wrong - but I'm betting not.  This is easy money.

KNOW NEW TAXES is a proven winner in political campaigns.

On the shipping thing, the Amazon truck appeared the other day with a couple of packages. My wife asked the driver if there were three. No.

Then, about 15 minutes later, a different Amazon truck appeared with the third package. I can't figure out how this makes sense.

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24 minutes ago, Plenipotentiary Tom said:

Then, about 15 minutes later, a different Amazon truck appeared with the third package. I can't figure out how this makes sense.

 

The first problem is the term 'Artificial Intelligence' - Computers aren't intelligent.  They optimize models.  The key to understanding what happened PROBABLY lies in what's sometimes referred to as 'dithering' - small changes to the parameters so that the code can "see" what happens.  AI HAS to be wrong sometimes or it never gets better.  Hopefully, your package was dithered.   The aforementioned theory is probably bullshit :)

What's more likely is that the packages arrived at a slightly different time or at slightly different location in the stacks of boxes at the distribution center and so got stacked on a different truck. 

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24 minutes ago, Plenipotentiary Tom said:

I can't figure out how this makes sense.

There are some overworked and underpaid humans in the process that may not be modeled accurately in the system. Or, the system is only concerned with some measure of overall efficiency...the bottom line at AMZN...so what looks like bad judgement is somehow the best way. I think the airlines lead in this regard: maximum apparent confusion leads to maximum profitability in some magic way.

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7 hours ago, austin1972 said:

The USPS doesn't get federal monies but the Fed govt. sure took a lot from them in the form of pension funding.

The pension issue is a whole 'nuther problem for the USPS.  Congress turned them loose and imposed stricter rules on them than the have themselves for civil service pension funding.  Right now it's the USPS biggest problem.

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25 minutes ago, El Boracho said:

the system is only concerned with some measure of overall efficiency...the bottom line at AMZN...so what looks like bad judgement is somehow the best way.

Maybe but I can't figure out how. Delivery truck miles are kinda expensive and human driver minutes are more expensive. My driveway is really long and the street out front is a mostly-closed 17 mile loop. It doesn't lead to anything except the US highway from which it came. Sending a truck out the loop at all is expensive and sending it down a really long driveway that's going to burn several human minutes is more so. I'd think a high priority for max efficiency would be to avoid duplicating expensive deliveries.

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So, while all the Trumpaloos have been touting the ends to justify the means, GDP just came in at a whopping 1.9%.  Weird, when that black dude was POTUS you all thought that was treasonous.

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Just now, Swimsailor said:

So, while all the Trumpaloos have been touting the ends to justify the means, GDP just came in at a whopping 1.9%.  Weird, when that black dude was POTUS you all thought that was treasonous.

So tired of winning! One more tax cut for the wealthy should really get that magic trickle-down going. Everyone will be a millionaire in 2020! Greatest economy ever! Steel, autos, coal, so much winning they had to shut the factories!

And who knew that the trade wars would be easy to win! 

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1 minute ago, Swimsailor said:

So, while all the Trumpaloos have been touting the ends to justify the means, GDP just came in at a whopping 1.9%.  Weird, when that black dude was POTUS you all thought that was treasonous.

 

And back in 2012 Donnie tweeted about the very same numbers saying the economy was in deep trouble.

 

Q1 GDP has just been revised down to 1.9% http://1.usa.gov/3hAL  The economy is in deep trouble.

 
 
 
 

Isn't it funny what a difference seven years and a successful presidential campaign make.

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The USPS pension problem was caused by congress.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-04-04/congress-not-amazon-messed-up-the-u-s-postal-service

From the cite:

Let's start with the USPS mandate: It was formed with a very different directive than its private-sector competitors, such as FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc. Those two giant private shippers, along with a bevy of smaller ones, are for-profit companies that can charge whatever they believe the market will bear. The USPS, by contrast, is charged with delivering to every home and business in America, no matter how remote. And, they can only charge what Congress allows; increases require approval. It also has congressional pressure and oversight on where it must maintain postal offices. The USPS has been slowly closing sites where there is insufficient customer demand. But closing an obsolete or little-used facility invariably entails a battle with each representative, who in turn faces voter anger when the local post office is targeted for closing. FedEx or UPS can open or close locations with little problem as demand and package traffic dictate.

Then there is the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act of 2006 (PAEA), which some have taken to calling "the most insane law" ever passed by Congress. The law requires the Postal Service, which receives no taxpayer subsidies, to prefund its retirees' health benefits up to the year 2056. This is a $5 billion per year cost; it is a requirement that no other entity, private or public, has to make. If that doesn't meet the definition of insanity, I don't know what does. Without this obligation, the Post Office actually turns a profit. Some have called this a "manufactured crisis." It's also significant that lots of companies benefit from a burden that makes the USPS less competitive; these same companies might also would benefit from full USPS privatization, a goal that has been pushed by several conservative think tanks for years.

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now soreass - which bunch of dipshits in congress caused that problem? 

<cough > Republicunts </ cough >

and why did they do it? as a favor to private carriers and because they hate the postal service.

this isn't news, chump.

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2 hours ago, El Boracho said:

So tired of winning! One more tax cut for the wealthy should really get that magic trickle-down going. Everyone will be a millionaire in 2020! Greatest economy ever! Steel, autos, coal, so much winning they had to shut the factories!

And who knew that the trade wars would be easy to win! 

That's why I was so frustrated..Tax cuts CAN work IF you have a capital starved economy AND investors are confident that stable policies will exist going forward.  Simply put, the US is not capital starved - in any way, shape, or form.  The tax cut had no chance of pushing the growth dial.  None.  Pure political theater.   My great hope was the tax cut laws would SIMPLIFY and close loop holes.  The increase of the standard deduction cleaned up some minor issues by papering them over, not by removing them.  Fail.  Total, abject, fail.  Opacity is a primary tool of the authoritarian.

 

2 hours ago, Saorsa said:

Then there is the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act of 2006 (PAEA), which some have taken to calling "the most insane law" ever passed by Congress. The law requires the Postal Service, which receives no taxpayer subsidies, to prefund its retirees' health benefits up to the year 2056. This is a $5 billion per year cost; it is a requirement that no other entity, private or public, has to make. If that doesn't meet the definition of insanity, I don't know what does. Without this obligation, the Post Office actually turns a profit. Some have called this a "manufactured crisis." It's also significant that lots of companies benefit from a burden that makes the USPS less competitive; these same companies might also would benefit from full USPS privatization, a goal that has been pushed by several conservative think tanks for years. 

I'm a big fan of the postal service.  I would love to see that requirement imposed on the other branches of government or the private sector.  Let's see how that works out.

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1 hour ago, Saorsa said:

The law requires the Postal Service, which receives no taxpayer subsidies, to prefund its retirees' health benefits up to the year 2056. This is a $5 billion per year cost; it is a requirement that no other entity, private or public, has to make.

Yep, especially since the USPS hires contractors these days, for the most part. Contractractors have no access to those benefits. Total money grab. Congress will appropriate those monies to something else to suit them.

I used to work very closely with the USPS. They're actually a very tight govt. entity but got screwed by the shitheads in Congress, who will dip into that fund for some dumb endeavor.
The USPS is one of the most efficient govt. agencies we have. Give your postal worker a spiff if you can. Last time I tried, I got a book of stamps. Maybe a little miscommunication in that transaction.

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2 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

I'm a big fan of the postal service.  I would love to see that requirement imposed on the other branches of government or the private sector.  Let's see how that works out.

That would be good if only from believing that pensions are guaranteed (OH wait, they are, by the government) and failure proof. 

Selling pie in the sky isn't only for religions.

 

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9 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

That would be good if only from believing that pensions are guaranteed (OH wait, they are, by the government) and failure proof. 

that government "guarantee" isn't for the whole value of the pension. Just ask a US Air pilot.

getting sick of people who brag out one side of their mouth about the wonders of private retirement returns - which have been delivered to you fucks on a silver platter with 3 decades of government policy that insists "THE MARKET MUST GO UP" and then mocking government guarantees on other shit. You've voted yourself guaranteed government returns via tax policy and government policy. 

Then, it's just another day in the US gerontacracy where y'all vote yourself pie in the sky and then sit around telling each other you earned it.

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6 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

that government "guarantee" isn't for the whole value of the pension. Just ask a US Air pilot.

getting sick of people who brag out one side of their mouth about the wonders of private retirement returns - which have been delivered to you fucks on a silver platter with 3 decades of government policy that insists "THE MARKET MUST GO UP" and then mocking government guarantees on other shit. You've voted yourself guaranteed government returns via tax policy and government policy. 

My wife isn't a US Air pilot but got stiffed by an underfunded 'pension'.

I'm not happy with the environment the government creates but, it's the current state of the sea and wind and I need to adapt to it.

I don't expect a shift anytime soon.

 

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2 hours ago, Saorsa said:

The USPS pension problem was caused by Republicans congress......

FIFY

So, you enjoy getting screwed by your overlords. We already knew.

- DSK

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4 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

My wife isn't a US Air pilot but got stiffed by an underfunded 'pension'.

I'm not happy with the environment the government creates but, it's the current state of the sea and wind and I need to adapt to it.

I don't expect a shift anytime soon.

 

I believe the vast majority of pensions will all eventually consolidate.  They'll get merged into something that vaguely looks like SSI.  You'll have a 'retirement' program and a 'healthcare' program (i.e, medicare).  There will be some private plans but they'll be quasi regulated as well.

In 10 years, millennials will be the single largest voting block and will be that way for 40 years following.  They'll pick what happens.  I hope you've been nice to them :)  My daughter told me that for helping her with college, I've been promoted from 'puppy chow' in the home to 'hot dogs!'.  SWEEET.  I'm hoping to get to 'chicken fingers' within a few years.

 

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17 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

I'm not happy with the environment the government creates

BULLSHIT.

You brag every fucking day here about how you got yours and fuck everyone else. That's your whole schtick. Your rode it, cashed out, and now are arguing for policy that entrench your advantage. Don't pretend you don't want this  - you do. You actively argue for it. Don't claim you are "adapting to it" when you are advocating the very thing happening.

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45 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

In 10 years, millennials will be the single largest voting block and will be that way for 40 years following.  They'll pick what happens.  I hope you've been nice to them :)  My daughter told me that for helping her with college, I've been promoted from 'puppy chow' in the home to 'hot dogs!'.  SWEEET.  I'm hoping to get to 'chicken fingers' within a few years.

May I have my children contact your daughter?  Just want them to consider the options.

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1 hour ago, cmilliken said:

I believe the vast majority of pensions will all eventually consolidate.  They'll get merged into something that vaguely looks like SSI.  You'll have a 'retirement' program and a 'healthcare' program (i.e, medicare).  There will be some private plans but they'll be quasi regulated as well.

In 10 years, millennials will be the single largest voting block and will be that way for 40 years following.  They'll pick what happens.  I hope you've been nice to them :)  My daughter told me that for helping her with college, I've been promoted from 'puppy chow' in the home to 'hot dogs!'.  SWEEET.  I'm hoping to get to 'chicken fingers' within a few years.

 

My wife and I essentially paid for our two sons college educations.  I’m hoping to get upgraded to no less than a TV dinner.  Hope springs eternal.

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4 hours ago, cmilliken said:

I believe the vast majority of pensions will all eventually consolidate.  They'll get merged into something that vaguely looks like SSI.  You'll have a 'retirement' program and a 'healthcare' program (i.e, medicare).  There will be some private plans but they'll be quasi regulated as well.

In 10 years, millennials will be the single largest voting block and will be that way for 40 years following.  They'll pick what happens.  I hope you've been nice to them :)  My daughter told me that for helping her with college, I've been promoted from 'puppy chow' in the home to 'hot dogs!'.  SWEEET.  I'm hoping to get to 'chicken fingers' within a few years.

 

Hey, let them vote for what they want which seems to be all sorts of security (except physical, that takes guns and scary people).  They get to pay for it.

Social Security had already been implemented as a 1 percent tax before I was born.  I was in grade school when it was first increased and that was about the time I was learning about money.  I recall vaguely folks bitching about the 50% increase in taxes.  That was about the time I started learning about what taxes were.  By the time I got out of HS, they had doubled again to 3%.  I do remember the discussions in civics class where I was told that the money was invested.  Then I found out it was not all invested.  Some was going to pay older folks their benefits.  I asked what happened to their investment and never got a satisfactory answer but, the taxes kept going up.  Folks started telling me that SS wouldn't be around when I was 65 (coincidentally, this was actually before 1965).  There were some forward thinkers who had said so in 1938 but what the fuck did they know.

One day I bitched about the most recent raise and my boss took my pay stub and told me how to think about each line item on it.  When it got to FICA he told me just pretend that doesn't exist.  There is no way you can come up with a tax deduction to reduce it.  The government takes it with a promise that you will get something back someday; don't count on it.  Until then, forget it and concentrate on the other numbers that you can change. 

And then came "health insurance" all I had to do was put up a little more than 1/3 of 1% and not have to worry when I reached 65.  That's up to 1.45% now.  It could go higher but the folks who actually believed in Social Security and Medicare as what they needed are on Medicaid and that comes out of a different pocket.

That "get off my yard" you hear is actually "That pot of water is going to boil you stupid frog".

I will however admit that there are some folks near my age who are lying to you.

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4 hours ago, jerseyguy said:

My wife and I essentially paid for our two sons college educations.  I’m hoping to get upgraded to no less than a TV dinner.  Hope springs eternal.

If you left them without student debt, you done good.

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16 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

If you left them without student debt, you done good.

Thank you.  We did some sacrificing but got it done.  

No loans, no debts, and a functioning but not new car.  Now the pressure is on them to do the same for their kids.  My parents paid for my college and they were both factory workers.  

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3 hours ago, Saorsa said:

Hey, let them vote for what they want which seems to be all sorts of security (except physical, that takes guns and scary people).  They get to pay for it.

Social Security had already been implemented as a 1 percent tax before I was born.  I was in grade school when it was first increased and that was about the time I was learning about money.  I recall vaguely folks bitching about the 50% increase in taxes.  That was about the time I started learning about what taxes were.  By the time I got out of HS, they had doubled again to 3%.  I do remember the discussions in civics class where I was told that the money was invested.  Then I found out it was not all invested.  Some was going to pay older folks their benefits.  I asked what happened to their investment and never got a satisfactory answer

That's because you're too stupid to understand what a BOND is.

Oh and "doubled again to 3%" does not compute. Surprise surprise, you don't understand either finance/investing OR math.

- DSK

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

That's because you're too stupid to understand what a BOND is.

Oh and "doubled again to 3%" does not compute. Surprise surprise, you don't understand either finance/investing OR math.

- DSK

1.5 to 3.0 is doubling.

I understand what a bond is but I can't by my own bonds with my own money.  The government collects cash, buys their own bond and has the cash in another pocket and spends it.

It's like having 10 bucks in your left pocket and need 20 to get to payday.  So, you take the ten from your left pocket, count it and count it again as you put it in the right pocket.

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Just now, Saorsa said:

1.5 to 3.0 is doubling.

I understand what a bond is but I can't by my own bonds with my own money.  The government collects cash, buys their own bond and has the cash in another pocket and spends it.

It's like having 10 bucks in your left pocket and need 20 to get to payday.  So, you take the ten from your left pocket, count it and count it again as you put it in the right pocket.

Uh huh

So, you think they should ship all the money they collect to a giant warehouse, store it by the pallet load? Drawing zero interest, what a good deal that would be.

The government can can do all kinds of things YOU can't.... like kill people, for example.

This is just being goddam stupid about money. If you hate Social Security for moral principles, that's fine. Don't accept the money when your turn comes. But trying to nitpick the whole issue of the SocSec bond system is just fucking ignorant.

- DSK

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1 minute ago, Steam Flyer said:

Uh huh

So, you think they should ship all the money they collect to a giant warehouse, store it by the pallet load? Drawing zero interest, what a good deal that would be.

The government can can do all kinds of things YOU can't.... like kill people, for example.

This is just being goddam stupid about money. If you hate Social Security for moral principles, that's fine. Don't accept the money when your turn comes. But trying to nitpick the whole issue of the SocSec bond system is just fucking ignorant.

- DSK

No, but the idea that it is invested and gets some return is bull.

 

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3 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

No, but the idea that it is invested and gets some return is bull.

 

You truly do not understand bonds.

I guess if you still pretended to care about deficits (like, say for example if  Democrat was in the White House) you could act all pissed off that the Social Security bond system was being used to mask the true size of the Federal deficit (which actually has some basis in truth).

Here you're just trying peddle noddle-head nonsense to a working class guy who saved and invested and retired early thanks to this knowledge. Keep sucking up that Fox/Rush crapola, it's making you smart!

- DSK

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On 11/2/2019 at 3:46 AM, Steam Flyer said:

to a working class guy who saved and invested and retired early thanks to this knowledge.

YOU DIDN'T BUILD THAT!

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2 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:
On 11/1/2019 at 7:46 PM, Steam Flyer said:

to a working class guy who saved and invested and retired early thanks to this knowledge.

YOU DIDN'T BUILD THAT!

Actually, you're right, I didn't. I just got on for the ride.

However knowing how finance works is really really important if you want to play in a capitalist economy.

Ignorance may be strength but knowledge is still power.

- DSK

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The US has turned into the China of the early 1400s.  The dominant society in the world, and since it became a net exporter of oil last month, not needing anything really from the rest of the world.  We can get our own rare Earth's if required.  As a result, the US can play its own tune economically.  We are winners, right?  China in the 1400s went into decline due to its suppression of science and innovation.  Perhaps it is, but in the short term, I don't see suppression of innovation a problem.  Funding basic science, maybe.  But then I do see a threat to this closed economic system from the increased concentration of economic control.  There is a scenario of the US economy being controlled by a small number of large players, much like the South Korean syndicates.   However, South Korea does not live in its own controlled world as the US oligopolies will be.  The result will be interesting, especially as the rest of the world goes its own way.

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:rolleyes:

Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump
FollowFollow @realDonaldTrump
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Brazil and Argentina have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies. which is not good for our farmers. Therefore, effective immediately, I will restore the Tariffs on all Steel & Aluminum that is shipped into the U.S. from those countries. The Federal....

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A busy boy POTUS is.  Tariffs on Argentina and Brazil and now this:

Trump plans $2.4 billion tariffs on French wine, cheese and handbags in new trade war with longstanding ally

He also said that he is in no hurry to close a trade deal with China.

DOw futures are down 290 points.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, jerseyguy said:

DOw futures are down 290 points.

You do have to wonder who in Trumps universe shorted that?

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On 12/2/2019 at 11:36 AM, Shortforbob said:

:rolleyes:

Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump
FollowFollow @realDonaldTrump
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Brazil and Argentina have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies. which is not good for our farmers. Therefore, effective immediately, I will restore the Tariffs on all Steel & Aluminum that is shipped into the U.S. from those countries. The Federal....

so why not put the tariffs on  farm goods not steel and ally?

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54 minutes ago, Navig8tor said:

You do have to wonder who in Trumps universe shorted that?

The list is long and not particularly distinguished. Grifters one and all.

The DOw is down more than 400 points.  Is this Dec going to be a rerun of last December’s collapse?

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1 hour ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Harder pretext. Trumps doing metal tariffs under the guise of national security.

Which means by stating the wrong reason on his twatter account,  when Brazil appeals to the WTO, the range one will lose.. 

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45 minutes ago, The Q said:

Which means by stating the wrong reason on his twatter account,  when Brazil appeals to the WTO, the range one will lose.. 

Institutional corrosion is part of Trumps appeal to his base. Weakening the WTO, and any institution, is a goal.

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8 hours ago, The Q said:

so why not put the tariffs on  farm goods not steel and ally?

Because Brazil & Argentina sell farm produce to the Chinese and steel/aluminium to the USA. Trump is pissed off that some other countries are selling into what WAS a USA market.

Bit pointless putting a tariff on something you don't buy though.

Not that Trump would be capable of actually figuring that out by himself.

FKT

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8 hours ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:
9 hours ago, The Q said:

so why not put the tariffs on  farm goods not steel and ally?

Harder pretext. Trumps doing metal tariffs under the guise of national security.

akaGP is right about this.

Which does leave me wondering about this:

9 hours ago, jerseyguy said:

Trump plans $2.4 billion tariffs on French wine, cheese and handbags in new trade war with longstanding ally

Do we have a wine, cheese, and handbag PANIC that has escaped my attention?

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1 minute ago, Plenipotentiary Tom said:

akaGP is right about this.

Which does leave me wondering about this:

Do we have a wine, cheese, and handbag PANIC that has escaped my attention?

We will soon.

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from above:

"... Warren opposed the Obama administration's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and has said she would block all new trade deals that do not impose American environmental and labor standards on other nations..."

Doesn't sound realistic to me.

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What tariffs have wrought...

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6667-us-china-trade-deal/b8ef0d1826ca2b48f121/optimized/full.pdf#page=6

In return for a reduction in tariffs China, among other things, agreed to purchase $200 billion of U.S. products over the next two years, to stop theft of intellectual property and to end currency manipulation. Duties on $375 billion in Chinese products will be maintained until phase 2 is concluded.

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2 hours ago, Blue Crab said:

from above:

"... Warren opposed the Obama administration's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and has said she would block all new trade deals that do not impose American environmental and labor standards on other nations..."

Doesn't sound realistic to me.

But she’s found The real issue. The US citizen wants clean air and water, but don’t give a shit if the Chinese have clean air and water. So, in a sense, Walmart and the Chinese miracle have outsourced the US pollution to China. If we want US local producers to have a shot to compete on price, you have to hold foreign producers to the same standards.

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