DryArmour

N2E Wx Thread- Could Be Interesting

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The 2018 Newport to Ensenada Race begins next Friday (April 27). The long range models are hinting at the storm door opening back up in the Thursday/Friday time frame. Obviously a system rolling through early Friday AM would be ideal. The GFS is more bullish on this idea than the ECMWF. The ECMWF has done a better job at the longer range model accuracy...We'll keep an eye on it as things progress.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

The 2018 Newport to Ensenada Race begins next Friday (April 27). The long range models are hinting at the storm door opening back up in the Thursday/Friday time frame. Obviously a system rolling through early Friday AM would be ideal. The GFS is more bullish on this idea than the ECMWF. The ECMWF has done a better job at the longer range model accuracy...We'll keep an eye on it as things progress.

 

 

 

Don't know what the weather will be but I can tell you that it won't be whatever the NWS forecasts for zone ZZ750 /(coastal waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican border and out  to 30 nm)....they have not had a forecast correct for weeks. Even during the day, as it's happening, they are wrong, or at the very best, inaccurate.

Sorry for the mini rant but those turds get me mad.

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6 hours ago, Parma said:

Don't know what the weather will be but I can tell you that it won't be whatever the NWS forecasts for zone ZZ750 /(coastal waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican border and out  to 30 nm)....they have not had a forecast correct for weeks. Even during the day, as it's happening, they are wrong, or at the very best, inaccurate.

Sorry for the mini rant but those turds get me mad.

No complaints here about their forecasts...They help keep my private weather forecasting in business :-).

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Can you help us feeble minded how you see that on the GFS? I see some consolidating pacific highs and dwindling SW lows but i don't understand what you see as a possible storm. I would love to understand if you can help us.

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18 hours ago, DarkHorse said:

Can you help us feeble minded how you see that on the GFS? I see some consolidating pacific highs and dwindling SW lows but i don't understand what you see as a possible storm. I would love to understand if you can help us.

The models have been struggling outside of 96 hours so all of this is likely to change. The GFS has a 29.76mb Low is near Las Vegas on race day. A somewhat anemic high and associated ridge covers the far Eastern North Pacific.  Its a modest gradient as of this morning's update to be sure but with a full 9 days between now and the blue flag, I suspect even the macro features will change. The EURO is a bit more bullish with a slow moving low WNW of San Francisco and a meager high to the SW of Los Angeles. Neither scenario are looking particularly entertaining ATM.   More later.

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bring board shorts and ear plugs

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Mark - your advanced view may be coming into a sense of rationality. Current runs show , lets say, fast times. Fingers crossed the ridge holds.

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44 minutes ago, Harry Pattison said:

Make sure you don't set your auto pilot at 2 in the morning and take a nap. There appears to be some dirt on your route. :-)

That's the rest point!

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23 hours ago, silent bob said:

 

 

Buffalo Gal go round the outside, round the outside!

 

Might not end up being a Buffalo Girl year for the people with BIG SHOES.

 

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That's a very provocative statement given the models I've  seen.

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For those that haven't heard the good news, this posted earlier on NOSA's web site.....

The Mexican government informed NOSA yesterday that they will be enforcing the boat tourist visa fee on N2E racers that go ashore in Mexico.  In prior years this was waived by local authorities. But this year the federal government is taking an active role. Wonderful. Not the kind of surprise we like.

We asked and received clarifications this morning on the implementation in Ensenada.   We are continuing to lobby officials to avoid this process or at the very least make this hurdle as painless as possible.

Currently, a  fee of $35 per person, for a visa,  will be charged upon arrival. Sailors can either;

1- Buy the visas online for every crew member that plans to go ashore.  https://www.banjercito.com.mx/registroEmbarques

2-Pay the visa Fee in Ensenada.  Mexican Immigration will have people and tables set up at Hotel Coral.  

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Mexico has to protect themselves from drug dealin', gun totin', border runnin' business ownin' laweryin' disreputin' ...................

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7 minutes ago, maxtrim said:

For those that haven't heard the good news, this posted earlier on NOSA's web site.....

The Mexican government informed NOSA yesterday that they will be enforcing the boat tourist visa fee on N2E racers that go ashore in Mexico.  In prior years this was waived by local authorities. But this year the federal government is taking an active role. Wonderful. Not the kind of surprise we like.

We asked and received clarifications this morning on the implementation in Ensenada.   We are continuing to lobby officials to avoid this process or at the very least make this hurdle as painless as possible.

Currently, a  fee of $35 per person, for a visa,  will be charged upon arrival. Sailors can either;

1- Buy the visas online for every crew member that plans to go ashore.  https://www.banjercito.com.mx/registroEmbarques

2-Pay the visa Fee in Ensenada.  Mexican Immigration will have people and tables set up at Hotel Coral.  

Turn and Burn!

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4 hours ago, maxtrim said:

For those that haven't heard the good news, this posted earlier on NOSA's web site.....

The Mexican government informed NOSA yesterday that they will be enforcing the boat tourist visa fee on N2E racers that go ashore in Mexico.  In prior years this was waived by local authorities. But this year the federal government is taking an active role. Wonderful. Not the kind of surprise we like.

We asked and received clarifications this morning on the implementation in Ensenada.   We are continuing to lobby officials to avoid this process or at the very least make this hurdle as painless as possible.

Currently, a  fee of $35 per person, for a visa,  will be charged upon arrival. Sailors can either;

1- Buy the visas online for every crew member that plans to go ashore.  https://www.banjercito.com.mx/registroEmbarques

2-Pay the visa Fee in Ensenada.  Mexican Immigration will have people and tables set up at Hotel Coral.  

Gosh! I wonder why they would do that? It seems an odd move, with cross border relationships between the USA and Mexico being so warm at the moment.

Cheers,

              W.

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5 hours ago, WGWarburton said:

Gosh! I wonder why they would do that?

In order to pay for the wall.

I thought that there was a provision which allowed for boats to sail a shorter course in the event of a drifter, so maybe some boats will just shorten course to San Diego.

I wonder how they’re going to enforce it? Suppose a boat with 10 comes into port but only 5 decide to go ashore?

 

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Everyone is going inside.

Orion is doing almost 23knts and Zephyrus is doing 13................HHMMMMMMM
Orion and Merlot are almost ready to gybe into Ensenada, from outside and Zephyrus is not even to SD yet.

Why would anyone get a mono hull if they could afford more.

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So did anyone listen/watch Scooter's FB live as described on what may or may not be the front page?

As of this writing I see Orion and MM pointed north.   Finished and headed back to SD already?

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58 minutes ago, daffy said:

Yep,when scot said the wind could clock to the left I almost lost it! Backing breeze anyone  

I think he was facing into the sun with his back to the course so i think he meant his left. (that's a pretty generous excuse, though)

the video was more than just choppy, but good effort - technology doesn't always cooperate.

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no matter which direction you're facing, "clocking" is always to the right.

....now, if he was hanging by his ankles or something...

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Pretty fun race. Zephyrus took the low road. We on Destroyer were medium low. Pyewacket was medium high and Medicine Man went Round the outside.

Pyewacket soaked down to our line in the late afternoon. And,  we had a drag race on. We were just ahead initially.  We were able to strech that lead by a few hundred yards.  Pyewacket jibed and we jibed a few hundred yards later. Now we were pointing at the barn with the swell cooperating.We extended out to maybe a an 1/8 of a mile lead. And, the wind began to drop and head. We carried the 2A as long as possible and were about to switch to the 1A when we got a huge header in the bay. We down shifted to the J1 because our 5 year old cuben fiber code 0 gave up the ghost just before the Coronados. Pyewacket had their L1 and ghosted past us as the breeze went to nada about 1/4 mile out. We shifted to the drifter and were able to match but not close. Pyewacket was a minute and thirty ahead as we crossed the line at 1 knot. But, they owed us 2 minutes. Then we saw Medicine Man motoring out. I guess the outside did pay.

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Just checking the results. How about Cheerio II... First to finish in PHRF-G,  despite coping the slowest (+246) rating in the thirteen-boat fleet. The forty six foot woody corrected over second place by over three and a half hours. While she may not have the lines of a Kettenburg, Cheerio II don't look half slow. Hard to understand the process which resulted in bestowing such a gift rating. 

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On 4/30/2018 at 3:15 PM, overbeek said:

 

way to represent moorpark !

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