southerncross

VOR Leg 9 Newport to Cardiff

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i don't see a meetup...

 the pack of three to the north are going to be well behind the pack of four to the south.

  

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In terms of scoring, I'm surprised the two red boats would allow Brunel to escape south to more wind with three other boats. 

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24 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

i don't see a meetup...

 the pack of three to the north are going to be well behind the pack of four to the south.

  

The routing seems to disagree with you : https://gis.ee/vor/

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7 hours ago, southerncross said:

I'll bet.  Nerve wracking for the Dongfeng fans.  

They always perform well early and then fall in a heap when the pressure comes on.

Will this time be any different? 

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1 hour ago, Big Show said:

In terms of scoring, I'm surprised the two red boats would allow Brunel to escape south to more wind with three other boats. 

Charles did say they were going to sail their own race and it looks like it is Mapfre following them this time. Plus they are not seeing what we see, only 6 hourly skeds so you either follow or have confidence in your own decisions

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DF and Mapfre are dying out there. Most of the fleet are seeing speed and VMG 3 to 4 times what they are. Looks like Mapfre have finally decided to gybe but by the time they get some relief, the group of four to the south will be well on their way.

EDIT: Gybed north again and lost second place to BRU ... although hard to compare real placings with almost 150nm separation  and completely different breeze.

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25 minutes ago, Sea Breeze 74 said:

DF and Mapfre are dying out there. Most of the fleet are seeing speed and VMG 3 to 4 times what they are. Looks like Mapfre have finally decided to gybe but by the time they get some relief, the group of four to the south will be well on their way.

EDIT: Gybed north again and lost second place to BRU ... although hard to compare real placings with almost 150nm separation  and completely different breeze.

Mapfre didn't gybe they got headed by about 90 degrees then tacked NE. They like finding holes!!!

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2 minutes ago, albanyguy said:

Mapfre didn't gybe they got headed by about 90 degrees then tacked NE. They like finding holes!!!

Okay - that's interesting. Is there a way of retrospectively seeing what TWA or TWD was taking place at a specific point on a boat's track? I looked back and assumed intentional gybe but wasn't watching when it happened.

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1 minute ago, Sea Breeze 74 said:

Okay - that's interesting. Is there a way of retrospectively seeing what TWA or TWD was taking place at a specific point on a boat's track? I looked back and assumed intentional gybe but wasn't watching when it happened.

Yep just drag the red dot on the bottom right of the tracker screen back a little bit, hit the play button on the left and watch the numbers change on the table below.

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5 minutes ago, albanyguy said:

Yep just drag the red dot on the bottom right of the tracker screen back a little bit, hit the play button on the left and watch the numbers change on the table below.

Bloody hell, that's useful. I usually watch in full screen but that playback is awesome with the full stats table. Thanks.

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4 hours ago, Big Show said:

In terms of scoring, I'm surprised the two red boats would allow Brunel to escape south to more wind with three other boats. 

Unlike the last edition where it got to be conga line with some shuffling, everyone now has a far greater idea of the max numbers and feel more comfortable doing their own thing.

The Dong being behind on points really could do its own thing and they could be assured Mapfre had no option but to stick with them. There was still a bit of poker face and it was Mapfre who blinked first.

If Brunel gets away so be it, they both will be up the top of the Table still. Similiarly for Brunel there is probably little point being with the red boats as the bigger the finish line placings gap the better and that prospect improves by not being with them.

Question is when they meet up again which group is going to be in front? Must be painful up north now imagining the wakes streaming out behind the southerners.

 

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Red boats in a world of hurt ATM, fantastic plastics still to feel the pain.

 

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This is going to get interesting. 20 Knots boat speed vs a few knots on opposing sides of the course. Some pain to come. Brunel and gang to capitalize.! 

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6 minutes ago, Forestdawg said:

Pascal seems conflicted:

 

 

 

Very much so..! Didn't make a lot of sense either unless he is covering up for the pain ahead.?

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Have the boats in the South caught the current?  Herman posted a good image a page or so back.

On my phone. How do you guys do it?

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Mapfre VMG =  -0.4 Knots 

Dongfeng VMG = -1.0 Knots

Brunel VMG = 15 Knots

This will make it interesting and if form is anything to go by Mapfre will end up 50 miles behind and still win..! 

 

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DFRT may have just got through to the other side. Mapfre still hurting, although at least they're going E of N rather than W of N!!!

Edit: Mapfre now going W!!! WTF!!!

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18 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Have the boats in the South caught the current?  Herman posted a good image a page or so back.

On my phone. How do you guys do it?

Yes they have, although according to WindyTV it looks like they've all gone the southern side of the current. It appears that the northern side of the current line roughly aligns with the northern side of the Westerly airstream on the VOR tracker. It also looks like Mapfre might be in an eddy coming off the gulf stream and that's why they're in the shit big time.

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1 minute ago, albanyguy said:

Yes they have, although according to WindyTV it looks like they've all gone the southern side of the current. It appears that the northern side of the current line roughly aligns with the northern side of the Westerly airstream on the VOR tracker.

Thanks mate.  I was losing hope for an answer.  The rest of you suck.

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21 minutes ago, albanyguy said:

DFRT may have just got through to the other side. Mapfre still hurting, although at least they're going E of N rather than W of N!!!

Edit: Mapfre now going W!!! WTF!!!

They've missed the escalator.

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1 minute ago, FinnFish said:

They've missed the escalator.

More like they're on the wrong escalator!

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Not yet time to write either of the groups off. The weather situation is getting complicated. Southern group looks like they will fall off the tail end of the breeze that propels them now. Northern group may get a bit of wind from a small low that is forming NW of Nova Scotia. The Southeners will have to come North some time. How costly that will prove to be??

Anyway, according to the forecast they will all hit a big high with very little wind in 24 hours from now. Which may end up being a restart of sorts.

 

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These so called restarts are often predicted but rarely happen in the open ocean portions of each leg.

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They all have to get north for the breeze later in the week, and there are not many options for the southerly boats. 

You can see TTTOP coming in behind the reds with some breeze so I think, and have been proved wrong so very often, that I like the northern pack. 

The southerly group are now over 100 miles split from the northerly group and once they lose the frontal acceleration it is going to be painful. 

At least... That is what I hope for! :unsure:

Edited by Potter
Fucking autocorrect
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I would have expected Yellow to be showing some signs of supremacy by now down south, but that isn't happening. Lost a cog or have the others found one?

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3 minutes ago, Potter said:

that I like the northern pack. 

I agree but they need to moving 

Reminds me of the split in the New-York Vendée in 2016.

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Brunel take the lead though being furthest north of the southern group are in danger of falling off the tail of the front first whilst Vestas and Akzo being further south stay on it longer and may take the lead. Meantime Mapfre about to go from 2nd to last in the space of 3 hours.

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4 minutes ago, bigrpowr said:

how long is the tracker live ?

the whole leg, and the remainder of the race

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I'm starting to worry about the implications of Mapfre going the wrong direction slowly.  I hope it's just that they're in a hole...  But it's been a couple hours now.

I suppose if it was breakage or a MOB, they'd actually be moving faster, under motor.  So hopefully it's just a hole.

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25 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

I'm starting to worry about the implications of Mapfre going the wrong direction slowly.  I hope it's just that they're in a hole...  But it's been a couple hours now.

I suppose if it was breakage or a MOB, they'd actually be moving faster, under motor.  So hopefully it's just a hole.

It's a bit concerning to me as well. Current breadcrumbs over the last 3H look very straight as opposed to the previous wiggly light wind path which could indicate engine on. Doesn't appear to be much of a search pattern to me though at first glance, which is a slight relief. 

Edit: crumbs updated and now they're just as wiggly as the rest.

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14 minutes ago, Wild Things said:

Doesn't appear to be much of a search pattern to me though at first glance, which is a slight relief

To alay your concerns.. 3 hours with no breeze looking for a MOB indicates that MOB would had to have jumped overboard holding onto a large battery.

They are getting wind and current fucked. Looks like the Dong wants a bigger piece of the glued action.

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10 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

They are getting wind and current fucked. Looks like the Dong wants a bigger piece of the glued action.

 

Yep, you are right of course. That's a gnarly hole. Time to sleep; this edition has kept me quite anxious. 

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Fcst at 40-50 hours out looks like the southern boats get a nice free ride north.  That'll fuck with the leader board.

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Windy suggests that front will slow down, in which case the southern four boats can ride it all the way back up north and do a great southern loop. Can even imagine a scenario where Brunel wins and the red twins come in last, which would really shake things up.

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2 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Windy suggests that front will slow down,

...Can even imagine a scenario where ....the red twins come in last, 

Current models pretty old so next batch due in a few hours will be interesting as the northern escalator might fade and the southern one have a longer life which is bit of a double bonus for those on the right.

Too early yet to be seeing the Red Tide become a Red Dribble when Nth/Sth DTF's are still pretty close.

 

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Aw isn't that cute. Dong got worried about Mapfre and came over to have a look!

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38 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Fcst at 40-50 hours out looks like the southern boats get a nice free ride north.  That'll fuck with the leader board.

Hard to see options in the North.

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32 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Too early yet to be seeing the Red Tide become a Red Dribble when Nth/Sth DTF's are still pretty close.

 

Given the present speed differentials and the forecast wind for the next while those DTF's are going to blow out big time in favour of those in the South in the next few (and more) hours.  Hard to see a way back for the northern trio.

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20 minutes ago, DtM said:

Hard to see a way back for the northern trio

They are now finally into double digits. Next model batch a few hours away will answer that question. In the interim might be time to put Potter, SX and Shang on suicide watch.

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11 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Interesting gybe from Scally. Apparently they are not concerned about being dropped by the front.

Whitty came up and asked "which way to the finish? That way skipper. Well fucking point it there ya bloody puss stain!!!"

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42 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

They are now finally into double digits. Next model batch a few hours away will answer that question. In the interim might be time to put Potter, SX and Shang on suicide watch.

Jack is there any indication in Windy how old the info is?

 

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Don't worry, found it in the toolbox.



Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Update interval: 12h - 14h
Updated: 11h ago
Reference time: 2018-05-21T12:00:00Z

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GFS is way more up to date.

 

 

Forecast model: GFS 13km
Update interval: 6h - 8h
Updated: 6h ago
Reference time: 2018-05-21T18:00:00Z

 

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

I would have expected Yellow to be showing some signs of supremacy by now down south, but that isn't happening. Lost a cog or have the others found one?

The former I think, Jack. The wheels seemed to have fallen off, the first night back at sea. Maybe an adverse reaction to freeze-dried.

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Good morning all, I just leave it at that, and would only wish the finish line is just right here :P. For sure another day of tracker glueing ahead! :D

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I may be wrong but I like the look of the two systems, on over Newfoundland. It has moved East significantly since I saw it this morning and also appears to intensify. Then the other side of the ice exclusion zone   is another system. If they continue to track east as N. Atlantic systems tend to do could benefit the northern bunch. Also the strong wind ridge near Brunel etc is starting to weaken.

I think we may see a switching of wind velocities before the day is out - up for the North and down for the south

Time will tell

SS

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Looks like we'll find out who made the wrong bet then. :)

 

A question for the last edition. One of the teams did repair the FB500 and had the dome off. Which team and leg was that? Looking for a picture of the panel antenna..

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Scallywag has re-joined the race to Cassablanca. Still hoping the North is going to come good. It is looking better now than a few hours ago at least.

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THE BIG PICTURE (see the green numbers)

1. The LP zone off the coast of Greenland is moving NNE along the coast of Greenland, a developing storm according to NOAA.
2. The LP zone above the east coast of Canada generates a gale around Saint Lawrence Bay.
3. The front has caught up DFRT, TTToP and MAPFRE. This group has lighter winds from the NW, enabling close or beam reaching.
4. The front has not caught up yet with TBRU, THSK/SW, AKZO and V11. This group has stronger winds from the SW, ideal for broad reaching and/or running.
5. NOAA forecast and GFS align for the short term.

INPUT
- GFS run 0600UTC 0,5d resolution
- 0600 UTC positions
- 3 hour timesteps

OUTPUT
1. DFRT, TTToP and MAPFRE are on the wrong side of the front and pay the price. A visit to the ice limits is possible. ETA +/+ 6 hours compared to the other group. Will probably be numbers #5 to #7 for leg result.
2. TBRU, AKZO and V11 are on the right side of the front, and these boats will probably be the numbers 1 to 3 for leg 9 as it stands now. ETA for these boats is the same, afternoon on the 29th. No visit to the ice limits.
3. THSK/SW is also on the right side of the front, but further to the SW compared to TBRU, AKZO and V11. A possible #4 leg result. No visit to the ice limits.

big picture 22-5-18 compressed.jpg

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Don't mind the position of Scallywag at the moment.  Hope they can find their way up the front. For once they are in the middle of the fleet not lingering on the outside somewhere.!

 

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Was hoping Witty would go the middle. 

Could have been an interesting alternative to play out.

This is the best leg yet!

 

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1 hour ago, Chasm said:

Looks like we'll find out who made the wrong bet then. :)

 

A question for the last edition. One of the teams did repair the FB500 and had the dome off. Which team and leg was that? Looking for a picture of the panel antenna..

Mapfre.. leg I don't recall

 

B-OPsABIUAAldKV.jpeg

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Regarding the fleetbroadband antennas, they now have three (1 FB500 and two 150 or 250 or something), and looking at the pictures, on the previous edition they only had 2.

Anybody knows the reason why they added one ? Redundancy ? Security ? More bandwidth ?

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No idea. Could be a dummy dome, nothing in the SI or any other paperwork about it. [That part is copied from the last edition aerial and never got updated...]

Apropos Inmarsat. The GMDSS monopoly went the way of the Dodo. Iridium is now also certified by the IMO.

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1 hour ago, yl75 said:

Regarding the fleetbroadband antennas, they now have three (1 FB500 and two 150 or 250 or something), and looking at the pictures, on the previous edition they only had 2.

Anybody knows the reason why they added one ? Redundancy ? Security ? More bandwidth ?

Added one other than sat phone and Inmarsat C? Always had 2 since 08/09 plus Inmarsat C Safety. 

What is carried has evolved along with the changes to Inmarsats satelite constellations and matching equipment to it provided by partners. To look at them, the bigger antenna size the higher the data speeds. OBR responsibility advanced with it.

As far as my brain remembers. 

2005/06. Would have been a mixed bag of old clunky Inmarsat Fleet 77 and Fleet 33 and Inmarsat C safety service or Global Maritime Distress & Safety Service (GMDSS). The latter uses the Inmarsat 3 or I-3 constellation.

2008/09. Inmarsat 4 or I-4 constellation nearly completed so FleetBroadband 500, backed up using old Fleet 33. Plus Inmarsat C. This was first edition with a more professional OBR role to take advantage of I-4 constellation.

2011/12. Race became a 100% I-4 affair. Inmarsat FleetBroadband 500 and backed up by FleetBroadband 150. Also Inmarsat C Safety.

2014/15. FleetBroadband 500 @ 432kbps  backed up by FleetBroadband 250 @ 250kbps.  Both stream, the FB500 @ 250 kbps and the FB 250 @ 128kbps. Also Inmarsat C Safety. This was first time for RO appointed OBR's.

2017/18. as for 2014/15 edition. OBR's on tighter leash and rotate.

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Laugh if Dee sailed around them.

Hope you enjoyed your laugh, as Dee did indeed pass the red boats. I'll bet she enjoyed it for a moment, too.

Northern group currently averaging better VMG and closing the DTF gap again.

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50 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Added one other than sat phone and Inmarsat C? Always had 2 since 08/09 plus Inmarsat C Safety. 

What is carried has evolved along with the changes to Inmarsats satelite constellations and matching equipment to it provided by partners. To look at them, the bigger antenna size the higher the data speeds. OBR responsibility advanced with it.

As far as my brain remembers. 

2005/06. Would have been a mixed bag of old clunky Inmarsat Fleet 77 and Fleet 33 and Inmarsat C safety service or Global Maritime Distress & Safety Service (GMDSS). The latter uses the Inmarsat 3 or I-3 constellation.

2008/09. Inmarsat 4 or I-4 constellation nearly completed so FleetBroadband 500, backed up using old Fleet 33. Plus Inmarsat C. This was first edition with a more professional OBR role to take advantage of I-4 constellation.

2011/12. Race became a 100% I-4 affair. Inmarsat FleetBroadband 500 and backed up by FleetBroadband 150. Also Inmarsat C Safety.

2014/15. FleetBroadband 500 @ 432kbps  backed up by FleetBroadband 250 @ 250kbps.  Both stream, the FB500 @ 250 kbps and the FB 250 @ 128kbps. Also Inmarsat C Safety. This was first time for RO appointed OBR's.

2017/18. as for 2014/15 edition. OBR's on tighter leash and rotate.

All but the one required to find the MOB.

Fucking well done.

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4 hours ago, Elisa said:

Good morning all, I just leave it at that, and would only wish the finish line is just right here :P. For sure another day of tracker glueing ahead! :D

No way they finish in the current order on the  tracker ....but if they did:

image.png.c6a5c86c409510de03242939cb907659.png

Top three reverse and its all on !

If Northern group lose out but Mapfre overhauled SHKS and we add in DFG's extra point for elapsed time, then the standings would be a dead tie between all three top boats with 57 points each!!!!!!!!

 

 

image.png

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4 hours ago, Herman said:

Weather routings 3/3

Schermafdruk 2018-05-22 09.54.31.png

Schermafdruk 2018-05-22 09.46.11.png

Schermafdruk 2018-05-22 09.44.24.png

Nice routing. How well do you trust the OpenCPN routing algorithm?

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1 hour ago, Mambo Kings said:

No way they finish in the current order on the  tracker ....but if they did:

image.png.c6a5c86c409510de03242939cb907659.png

Top three reverse and its all on !

If Northern group lose out but Mapfre overhauled SHKS and we add in DFG's extra point for elapsed time, then the standings would be a dead tie between all three top boats with 57 points each!!!!!!!!

 

 

image.png

Mp will be sticking close to dfg then

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6 minutes ago, winchfodder said:

Mp will be sticking close to dfg then

Yep like shit to a blanket and probably won't even be looking to where Cardiff is.

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Daily live isn't linking properly, perhaps someone will post the Youtube Daily Live after it's uploaded.

Daily Live shows that the Northern Group is positioning themselves to be reaching and the Southern boats to be beating upwind in a few days time.

This is playing out to be a tricky leg for the navigators, crews, and us watching - causing me to stay up till the wee hours of the morning or to awaken in the middle of the night to check the progress. - as I did last night and as was the case for parts of some previous legs.

Daily Live

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Quote
2 hours ago, oceangeek said:

Hope you enjoyed your laugh, as Dee did indeed pass the red boats. I'll bet she enjoyed it for a moment, too.

Northern group currently averaging better VMG and closing the DTF gap again.

 

Dee certainly needed a cheer up.....

That skippers briefing was fingernails on blackboard for her.

Must have been fun today.

Make the most of it.

Cause it ain't gonna last....

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Bidegorry added that it was not easy deciding which way to go. “There is no special plan for us – the plan is to sail well and that is it,” he said.

https://www.dongfengraceteam.cn/news/view/leg-9-day-2-its-all-change-as-dongfeng-and-the-northern-boats-lose-ground

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Latest from skipper Dee Caffari onboard Turn the Tide on Plastic:  

It has not been easy sailing out on our own. Being the first to gybe while everyone else was going fast in another direction was a concern. Seeing the red boats gybe too made us feel better and then sailing over the top of them this morning made us feel even better. There are still those sailing fast to the south and when we all meet again they could be looking good. However, there are many more transitions to go on this leg.

We have enjoyed flat water, warm conditions and we have managed to keep moving. We have light winds ahead and by this evening we will be in new breeze on the other gybe that will increase. This low pressure we will ride for a few days so we need to push hard while we have it and hang on in there.

Dee and Team TTTOP

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