southerncross

VOR Leg 9 Newport to Cardiff

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41 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Exactly ..and envious.. to get Sails number up I would have to have married 30 years before they were born. I don't think that is possible even with technology advancement these days.

Well, I have zero years and if I started now and esp at the rate I have been crashing and burning (bike, ski, other accidents, thus accumulating screws, pins, metal plates, etc.) I'd be long dead before I got Sail's number. 

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Myself and Mrs Sea Breeze have been happily unmarried for close to 30 years. Every time I jokingly suggest we tie the knot she says "weddings are expensive, lets buy a bigger boat instead". It's a hard road finding the perfect woman ...

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36 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Agree for Plastic chasing a channel to wind Yellow in (Akzo doing the same) but Scally unfortunately being at the back has to get south now to avoid the steam roller/front up ahead and coming from behind.

That may bring up opportunities at the back end for them who knows. Libby really does have the toughest Nav job in this race finding routing outcomes to offset them being off the pace.

Herm a Hint: Crank Scallys polars back a tad and you might well identify a lucky spot for them at the back end if it exists and before anyone else.

That sounds a bit drastic Jack.

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Do I count my three cumulatively?
Weddings I mean.

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12 minutes ago, paps49 said:

That sounds a bit drastic Jack.

Unfortunately I'm not too sure they have too many other options in the basket. Having said that actual to delayed forecast means the cheap seats relying on the latter will always be that, so let's see.

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5 minutes ago, paps49 said:

Do I count my three cumulatively?
Weddings I mean.

As long as they were all with the opposite sex...otherwise the judges will flag a restart.

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Some fabulous confessions going on here, keep them coming ^_^,

meanwhile the submarine is stretching her legs through the Atlantic, go, go, go!

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13 minutes ago, Elisa said:

Some fabulous confessions going on here, keep them coming ^_^,

Well other than you owning up to having a full size cardboard cutout of Bouwer in the marital bedroom being problematic, you have remained silent Elisa. 

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If the boats finish in this order into Cardiff, the overall scoreboard at that point would be DF 58, Map 57, Brun 57...….pretty close....though of course plenty still to happen over next couple of days

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Getting very close to calling Capey/Salter/SciFi the routing winners for this first section. The small amount of time they spent on the stairs I'm not sure they thought they would be so lucky.

Now a drag race coming up.

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52 minutes ago, Sea Breeze 74 said:

Myself and Mrs Sea Breeze have been happily unmarried for close to 30 years..... It's a hard road finding the perfect woman ...

Sea the beauty of you both being cousins :-) Many of us don't have that geographic advantage unless born in Tasmania or Tennessee.

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RE.png

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^^^Herman the Race Experts are indicating there Mapfre taking the southern-shortcut with Scally? That is a big call on their behalf.

If so the Dong will think all their Xmas's have come at once.

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25 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

^^^Herman the Race Experts are indicating there Mapfre taking the southern-shortcut with Scally? That is a big call on their behalf.

If so the Dong will think all their Xmas's have come at once.

I just run the washing machine. Still no clear winner to pick yet, but DFRT and TRBU are the 2 favorites unless the high pressure ridge or LP zone after that fucks them. DFRT doing 28 knots as we speak! The southern short-cut is due to the LP zone.

The big picture

1. The HP ridge off the coast of Ireland is now projected more to the west, around 22W at 26-05-18 09 UTC. See the first picture the green track lines for the boats where the crew can take some rest from the previous days with very hard sailing. 
2. The timing of the LP zone coming from France moving NW west off Ireland will be important. See the second picture bottom-right.
3. Boats are currently blasting away at +/- 25 knots in near-gale winds, incredible!

Input
- GFS 0,5d
- boat positions 1145 UTC
- 3 hr timesteps
- updated ice limits Newfoundland

Output
1. ETA the very early morning hours of the 30th.
2. TBRU beats DFRT by 1 hour. But given the uncertainties around the HP ridge and LP zone I still don't take any bets, yet.

routing the 24th.png

the 26th.png

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Current weather synopsis (see the green numbers)

1. Current location of the fleet just below the ice exclusion zone.

2. A LP zone located in the ice limit zone is generating (near-)gale wind conditions, and moving to the NE.

3. Behind the fleet a new gale is developing, including a cold front, moving to the NE, which could impact the fleet in the coming night and day. Especially the southern boats could benefit if they can hook on as it will pass to the SE side the fleet. In that case 15 knots wind speed for the northern boats, and 30 knots for the southern boats for as long as they can catch the ride.

 

 

 

big picture current.png

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The deep running speeds coming out of Brunel are impressive.  Who would have thought after two Editions more juice could be pressed out of these boats.

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Apologies Herman (and anyone I may have offended)...no excuse but a very weird and bad day... we all have them. Was topped off by the leg humping Hoppy is giving me down the hallway. Luckily he always goes for the wooden one. 

Nicely done, Jack.  The demons take over once in a while.  It's an ongoing battle.

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7 hours ago, despacio avenue said:

 A couple of hours ago I celebrated the end of the Washington (DC) Capitals' National Hockey League team's two decades long draught from getting to the Stanley Cup playoffs,

Hockey player superstitious behavior rivals baseball players.  I was tight with the GOAT and the corrupt owner of the Kings when they took a run The Cup back when.  The locker room pre game rituals were legendary.  Always the same - every game.  Then one player broke tradition and showed up with an illegal stick.  Cursed.  All downhill from there.

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3-4 meter waves with dominant direction perfectly heading east/northeast - a lot of nice surfing going on, the gale/near gale conditions is one condition where the VO65 are probably the fastest boats in the world.

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

I just run the washing machine.

Thanks Herm

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TEAM BRUNEL IN THE LEAD HALFWAY THROUGH LEG 9

After almost four days at sea, Team Brunel is still in the lead in Leg 9 of the Volvo Ocean Race. An important leg as double points for the final classification can be earned. Team Brunel, currently in third place, can climb further in the rankings with a good result. Although the Dutch boat is in the lead, it’s not been without problems. The problems with the steering gear have been resolved and onboard they are now talking about breaking the 24-hour speed record.

After an early split, Team Brunel, Vestas 11h Hour Racing, Team AkzoNobel and Sun Hung Kai Scallywag chose the southern route. Soon there was a difference of about 300 nm. with the northern group Mapfre, Dongfeng and Turn The Tide on Plastic.

Helmsman Burling: “We were just discussing the plan for the next two days. We can talk about this for hours, but we just need to sail quicker than the others for that period of time. And hopefully get to the light patch before them. Our biggest concern is probably the same as everyone else as in a few day time we will go from the quickest portion of the race to something pretty slow, where we will be able to see everyone else again. Everything we fight for here will probably just turn into a mile or so when we come to that final stage.”

Spectacular repair
Tuesday night the left rudder hit something. That released the steering arm and, as became apparent during daylight, the helm was damaged. The damage to the steering arm below deck could be solved immediately by replacing it. In order to repair the rudder itself, crew member Kyle Langford (AUS) had to hang next to the boat at an angle of 45 degrees in order to repair the rudder.

24-hour speed record
With the wind above 25 knots, the sea relatively flat, and the wind angle favorable to the Volvo Ocean 65s, there is a possibility of breaking the 24-hour distance record, currently held by Abu Dhabi. Back in March 2015, Ian Walker's team sailed 550.8 nautical miles in one 24-hour stretch on the approach to Cape Horn.

Bouwe Bekking: "For the next 36 hours we have very good breeze, with a good potential for breaking the 24 hour speed record for the race." 

"There's a big low forming to the west of us which is giving us some nice downwind conditions," said helmsman Peter Burling. "There's a good chance of the Omega 24 hour speed run for the whole race, I'd say, over the next couple of days."

It's a big ask, as 550.8 nautical miles translates into an average speed just shy of 23 knots. 
Follow the fleet live on the Volvo Ocean Race tracker.

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I’m at 34 years with the Mrs., and just the one. That was all luck; 22-year-old me didn’t know anything about anything.

It’s awesome to see the boats come back together, both in terms of this leg and in terms the overall race points (if they finish in something like the current order, which I wouldn’t bet on; I think there’s a good chance the two red boats will grind down at least some of the boats ahead of them).

I assume this has all already been discussed to death; I haven’t been following the forums here closely. But it strikes me that Scallywag’s (somewhat) consistent lack of pace vs. the other boats is a useful data point for relitigating the “why is SCA slow?” question from the last edition. Unsurprisingly, I favor the view that says this supports the position I took back then: that it had little to do with their sex and more to do with their relative inexperience in these boats in these circumstances. Which I realize people in the know were saying all along.

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The Spanish Inquisition continues.  Right now they have me on the rack and are slowly turning the screw.  Out the corner of my eye I spot a blacksmith fanning hot coals and turning iron.

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11 minutes ago, jbc said:

I’m at 34 years with the Mrs., and just the one. That was all luck; 22-year-old me didn’t know anything about anything.

It’s awesome to see the boats come back together, both in terms of this leg and in terms the overall race points (if they finish in something like the current order, which I wouldn’t bet on; I think there’s a good chance the two red boats will grind down at least some of the boats ahead of them).

I assume this has all already been discussed to death; I haven’t been following the forums here closely. But it strikes me that Scallywag’s (somewhat) consistent lack of pace vs. the other boats is a useful data point for relitigating the “why is SCA slow?” question from the last edition. Unsurprisingly, I favor the view that says this supports the position I took back then: that it had little to do with their sex and more to do with their relative inexperience in these boats in these circumstances. Which I realize people in the know were saying all along.


SCA won its fair share of in port races so we know that it wasn't some fundamental issue with knowing how to handle sails, but as you say - inability to replicate that fine tuned mode. Sure with some cross-pollination everyone elevates their game with diff exp/expertise and pushes it to the limit. Hopefully that means the women who now have the additional exp are valued appropriately for future sailing opportunities.

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6 minutes ago, southerncross said:

The Spanish Inquisition continues.  Right now they have me on the rack and are slowly turning the screw.  Out the corner of my eye I spot a blacksmith fanning hot coals and turning iron.

Did they lose their stick?

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1 minute ago, Miffy said:

Did they lose their stick?

Not sure.  No BS showing.  And bleeding miles.

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Hopefully a satellite connection issue. Looks like no data updates for about 30 minutes now.

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NB:  This is a record for the VO65

 

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1 hour ago, Miffy said:

3-4 meter waves with dominant direction perfectly heading east/northeast - a lot of nice surfing going on, the gale/near gale conditions is one condition where the VO65 are probably the fastest boats in the world.

This is a massive troll right?

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Looks like it's going to be another lottery at the finish...

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Akzo is on fire and reeling Yellow in.

Saw them hit 29.5.

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1 hour ago, southerncross said:

The Spanish Inquisition continues.  Right now they have me on the rack and are slowly turning the screw.  Out the corner of my eye I spot a blacksmith fanning hot coals and turning iron.

Have you told them which nut you want keep?

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36 minutes ago, Tropical Madness said:

This is a massive troll right?

Only partly. In all seriousness, the latest and fastest IMOCAs are much quicker to get up to speed in all downwind conditions from 8-25 knots; but once the conditions get to near gale/gale conditions - the 65s are being driven harder because the folks are confident that the boat will hold. 

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1 minute ago, Miffy said:

the folks are confident that the boat will hold.

Famous last words :D

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Added to the Leg 9 playlist:

VNR 24 May, interview in Dutch, Simeon Tienpont, AkzoNobel
VNR 24 May, interview in Dutch, Carlo Huisman, Brunel
VNR 24 May, interview in Portuguese, António Fontes, Sun Hung Kai/Scallywag

VNR 24 May, interview, Bleddyn Mon, Turn the Tide on Plastic
VNR 24 May, interview in Welsh, Bleddyn Mon, Turn the Tide on Plastic
VNR 24 May, interview in Portuguese, Bernardo Freitas, Turn the Tide on Plastic

VNR 24 May, B-roll Live X & interview in French, Charles Caudrelier, Dongfeng
VNR 24 May, interview in Chinese, Chen Jinhao ‘Horace’, Dongfeng
VNR 24 May, interview in French, Marie Riou, Dongfeng

Maybe there will be more tonight...
 

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10 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Saw them hit 29.5.

Will be leader within the next 2 hours. They all seem to have a sweet spot..this looks like theirs.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Have you told them which nut you want keep?

Well the right one has been the devil and gotten me into too much trouble.  

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Autsch, another problem on the Submarine? Going only 18.6 against the 27 something on Akzo... ;-)) OK, one degree higher and 4 kn faster now... Must be a driver moment.

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12 hours ago, Sailbydate said:

It's when they stare back at you with a blank face and a response of, "Oh. Right" - that you know they have no fucking idea why you'd even want to bother, that gets me. I've been married to the same incredible woman for 45 years (last week) and she still doesn't get sailing. Not that I've ever bothered to educate her. Example: That's a lovely looking 36'ter dear. "Does it have a motor?" Well... yes....but...Oh never mind.

Congrats, that's awesome, the 45 I mean!
After a lot of s#it I met the love of my life 15 years ago; we're married since 2. He is not as sailing-crazy as I am, but he loves foiling (ahem...), hanging out at regattas and having the occasional ride on a race boat (just like me, actually). Hope, we'll make the 45 too, but I doubt it, the aging won't stop.

"It's certainly very wet and good fun":

 

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Brunel will be watching Akzo blowing by in about 15 minutes.

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The guys in front appear to be enjoying around 15 degrees better TWD. Another split coming up if that stays constant.

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14 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Brunel will be watching Akzo blowing by in about 15 minutes.

Out of AIS range in poor visibility don't think Brunel will wake up for another 3 hours..  can't see what they are looking at up north there, must be they expect that LP system moving west at a brisk pace soon.

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26 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Brunel will be watching Akzo blowing by in about 15 minutes.

Time is up, still 2 nm DTL left but Tienpont has reached warp speed @ 29 knots SOG - I hope they don’t break the boat or that would be nasty in those conditions.

Vestas in 40 knots wind speed atm.

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BR must have some issue.  As they crossed AZ and the lift fillled, speed drops 3-5 knots.  Maybe blew a sail change and broke something?

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Short version of the 24h record incl. PB IV and more:
 

 

May be a double to the post above.

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Looks like Brunel overshoot and perhaps went too far north? :huh:

Akzo will be waving soon, happy for them. They deserve a break. :)

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2 minutes ago, Elisa said:

Looks like Brunel overshoot and perhaps went too far north? :huh:

Akzo will be waving soon, happy for them. They deserve a break. :)

Would love a double-Dutch in front arrival in Cardiff. Bet you do too (we may disagree about which boat comes first or second tho).
Good times :wub:

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4 minutes ago, Elisa said:

Looks like Brunel overshoot and perhaps went too far north? :huh:

Akzo will be waving soon, happy for them. They deserve a break. :)


Hard to say - that compressed high pressure in 2 days time suggests navs need to make a call now - go high or go low. If they shoot the middle they're going to be last.

Northern position will get the breeze behind them first and be able to downwind sail before keeping fastnet rock to port and sailing upwind. Southern position might be better for stragglers anyway but it'll be a long beat upwind.

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1 minute ago, Rennmaus said:

Would love a double-Dutch in front arrival in Cardiff. Bet you do too (we may disagree about which boat comes first or second tho).
Good times :wub:

Yes indeed I do too :), but I only carry black and yellow pon-pons though. :P

Simeon’s time will come, he has a great future ahead I think. I just want to see Bouwe and Capey lift that cup in The Hague. :)

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Now the fleet - minus the usual suspect SHK/SW - has converged within 80 nm, we can safely say that east was best and VMG paid off. 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

This might be a very short record

Indeed. But the ride is not over yet!

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^^ Thanks Miffy, another though call for the navigators, we shall see. 

The last three legs have been such great legs, I love the splits, the speed, everything. What is not to love! 

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@teamAkzoNobel have provisionally the 24hr speed run previously set by @brunelsailing and it is still rising, currently 567.03nm!

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1 minute ago, 33jesus said:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/teamAkzoNobel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@teamAkzoNobel</a> have provisionally the 24hr speed run previously set by <a href="https://twitter.com/brunelsailing?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@brunelsailing</a> and it is still rising, currently 567.03nm! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Watchlog?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Watchlog</a> <a href="https://t.co/weJhnyXq2T">pic.twitter.com/weJhnyXq2T</a></p>&mdash; Race Experts (@RaceExperts) <a href="https://twitter.com/RaceExperts/status/999699938970828805?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 24, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

Indeed. But the ride is not over yet!

My, they are fast!   I think, above means this:
 

 

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Who is/are the badass drivers at the Paintwagon? 

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8 minutes ago, Elisa said:

^^ Thanks Miffy, another though call for the navigators, we shall see. 

The last three legs have been such great legs, I love the splits, the speed, everything. What is not to love! 

Until the fleet arrives at the wrong time at Cardiff and any boat arriving within a 4 hr window gets a shot at victory ;)

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10 minutes ago, Elisa said:

Who is/are the badass drivers at the Paintwagon? 

The two Nico's are the top two dogs I think and obviously some more that are not too shabby.

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Akzo probably won't know they are top of the pyramid until the next sched shortly on dusk, that news will push them through the night ..and also the others..brutal.

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14 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Akzo probably won't know they are top of the pyramid until the next sched shortly on dusk, that news will push them through the night ..and also the others..brutal.

Perhaps! They do have 30 meter sticks - imagine Capey and Jules each sitting at their respective stations going FUCK ME as the spurious ais signal makes its way to the 12-15nm they've been from each other.

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BR back up to speed, tough to tell whether it's TWS, course, broke/fixed something, or they were in "don't break the boat" mode.  Will be interesting to hear their next daily update.

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How many record breaking videos do I need to post today???
AkzoNobel:
 


Fast sailing indeed:

 

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

Now the fleet - minus the usual suspect SHK/SW - has converged within 80 nm, we can safely say that east was best and VMG paid off. 

So, if you were the brain trust on SHK/SW right now, would you try to skirt to the south of the ridge? Sort of looks like that from their course. 

If you follow the fleet you are hoping for an Irish Sea and/or Bristol Channel miracle to pass 6 boats. 

Yet, if you go south now, and in fact can get thorough the ridge in, lets say, 12 fewer hours than the rest of the fleet, then what do you care that you'd have to sail upwind all the way to Cardiff? You'd be so stinking far ahead it that your poor sailing angle wouldn't matter. 

I tell you what - if I were on board I'd be running a whole lot of scenarios through the router right now. 

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7 minutes ago, 2Newts said:

 

I tell you what - if I were on board I'd be running a whole lot of scenarios through the router right now. 

I tell you what - I think you should contact the teams and tell them to do this ;) 

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6 hours ago, Miffy said:

3-4 meter waves with dominant direction perfectly heading east/northeast - a lot of nice surfing going on, the gale/near gale conditions is one condition where the VO65 are probably the fastest boats in the world.

Not by a longshot

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4 hours ago, Rennmaus said:

Congrats, that's awesome, the 45 I mean!
After a lot of s#it I met the love of my life 15 years ago; we're married since 2. He is not as sailing-crazy as I am, but he loves foiling (ahem...), hanging out at regattas and having the occasional ride on a race boat (just like me, actually). Hope, we'll make the 45 too, but I doubt it, the aging won't stop.

"It's certainly very wet and good fun":

 

Kind of pathetic that supposed yachties would even consider writing "knots an hour" unless it's a class on knot tying..........

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8 minutes ago, Christian said:

Kind of pathetic that supposed yachties would even consider writing "knots an hour" unless it's a class on knot tying..........

Pretty slow actually isn't it, Christian. Even tying one-handed bowlines, you'd expect a much higher average number. ;)

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4 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

Pretty slow actually isn't it, Christian. Even tying one-handed bowlines, you'd expect a much higher average number. ;)

Yeah - it would have to be some pretty intricate knots to go that slow

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4 hours ago, Manfred said:

Autsch, another problem on the Submarine? Going only 18.6 against the 27 something on Akzo... ;-)) OK, one degree higher and 4 kn faster now... Must be a driver moment.

Must be the horse driving.

2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

 

 

Awwww, please, give us a break from Martine...

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Only 33nm behind the outright monohull 24 hour record now, set by Comanche back in 2015, also in the North Atlantic but IIRC a touch further south. Impressive for a boat with many less than desirable attributes...also points to the simple fact that foils are pretty much the only way forward in terms of a higher average speed...

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2 hours ago, NORBowGirl said:

I tell you what - I think you should contact the teams and tell them to do this ;) 

Nice one - your bad eye had not lessened your wit. Can you still drive and so?

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2 hours ago, NORBowGirl said:

I tell you what - I think you should contact the teams and tell them to do this ;) 

Not sure I need to ... I think they are doing it. They are 150 miles south of Brunel and the gap is growing. But if I could contact them, I would also advise them not to listen to any of my advice, so no worries on taking anything I say seriously.

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12 minutes ago, Herman said:

Nice one - your bad eye had not lessened your wit. Can you still drive and so?

Actually the first time I laughed after getting diagnosed, was when my brother asked the doctor if I would keep my drivers license. 

He said “suuuuuuure, LOTS of people drive around with really bad eyes”

...and he wasn’t joking. So we laughed, and my brother said “I knew it!!!” It appears they only cancel your license for 6 months if you lose vision in one eye very sudden, like in an accident. 

I drove yesterday and it was just fine, just parked more carefully than usual. :D 

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3 hours ago, Kenny Dumas said:

BR back up to speed, tough to tell whether it's TWS, course, broke/fixed something, or they were in "don't break the boat" mode. 

My money is on the last. Tienpont needs a speed record more than Bouwe imho. Brunel is not letting AKZO go away, DTL is now 0.4 nm with a lateral seperation of 16 nm. 

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3 minutes ago, NORBowGirl said:

Actually the first time I laughed after getting diagnosed, was when my brother asked the doctor if I would keep my drivers license. 

He said “suuuuuuure, LOTS of people drive around with really bad eyes”

...and he wasn’t joking. So we laughed, and my brother said “I knew it!!!” It appears they only cancel your license for 6 months if you lose vision in one eye very sudden, like in an accident. 

I drove yesterday and it was just fine, just parked more carefully than usual. :D 

Nice story - and good that you are not dependant on others for getting around!

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Yippe Ky Yay motherfuckers......................watch em go!

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16 minutes ago, Herman said:

Nice story - and good that you are not dependant on others for getting around!

This is me flipping the finger to the local green politicians - I’ll still be driving my diesel Golf. Although I must admit that I’ve never been more envious of my brother’s Tesla and the auto pilot in that. It’s the future car for me! And it’s almost tax free here, thanks to said politicians. 

I think I’m gonna joke around a lot about this. I’ll change the layout of the trim guides on our boat to a ridiculously huge font, for example. 

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

The two Nico's are the top two dogs I think and obviously some more that are not too shabby.

Justin F is an excellent driver who will be pushing it

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48 minutes ago, Herman said:

My money is on the last. Tienpont needs a speed record more than Bouwe imho. Brunel is not letting AKZO go away, DTL is now 0.4 nm with a lateral seperation of 16 nm. 

Not sure why Simeon deserves a speed record. He is literally just the figurehead. 

Nicho and Nicolai are ribbing the show... and a bloody good job they are doing. 

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