Herman

VOR Leg 10 Cardiff to Gothenburg

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Nice one, Scally in 3rd position overall. I'll tweet to the Race Experts that they change the waypoint for them too.

 

 

 

ranking.png

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5 hours ago, Herman said:

RC will need to change the waypoint in a couple of hours to the top of NW Scotland. Only 55 nm or so northing left on this waypoint.

They listened to you. 0700 sked now ranks all boats through waypoint "Waternish Point", probably the Vaternish [sic] Lighthouse on the Isle of Skye.

On the tracker, that would be near the exclusion zone

198781851_ScreenShot2018-06-12at6_17_58AM.png.b3ca40fc42ab1e1586b24d814d2b628b.png

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8 minutes ago, stief said:

They listened to you. 0700 sked now ranks all boats through waypoint "Waternish Point", probably the Vaternish [sic] Lighthouse on the Isle of Skye.

On the tracker, that would be near the exclusion zone

198781851_ScreenShot2018-06-12at6_17_58AM.png.b3ca40fc42ab1e1586b24d814d2b628b.png

They forgot Scally, see my post above you :D

Edit: you are right Stief, they changed Scally too. The dashboard is now officially rubbish for now with everybody doing 2 knots NW instead of NE and the wind filling in from the west. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Herman said:

They forgot Scally, see my post above you :D

I did, but here's the 0700 sked. SHKS listed the same as the others.

Rank Team At position
Hour UTC 24h run Waypoint
1 MAPFRE 06:59 UTC 192.1 nm Waternish Point
2 Team AkzoNobel 06:58 UTC 191.9 nm Waternish Point
3 Dongfeng Race Team 06:58 UTC 190.4 nm Waternish Point
4 Team Brunel 06:59 UTC 193.7 nm Waternish Point
5 Vestas 11th Hour Racing 06:59 UTC 195.5 nm Waternish Point
6 Turn The Tide on Plastic 06:58 UTC 193.1 nm Waternish Point
7 Team Sun Hung Kai / Scallywag 06:58 UTC 256.6 nm Waternish Point
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2 minutes ago, stief said:

I did, but here's the 0700 sked. SHKS listed the same as the others.

Rank Team At position
Hour UTC 24h run Waypoint
1 MAPFRE 06:59 UTC 192.1 nm Waternish Point
2 Team AkzoNobel 06:58 UTC 191.9 nm Waternish Point
3 Dongfeng Race Team 06:58 UTC 190.4 nm Waternish Point
4 Team Brunel 06:59 UTC 193.7 nm Waternish Point
5 Vestas 11th Hour Racing 06:59 UTC 195.5 nm Waternish Point
6 Turn The Tide on Plastic 06:58 UTC 193.1 nm Waternish Point
7 Team Sun Hung Kai / Scallywag 06:58 UTC 256.6 nm Waternish Point

Indeed seem my Edit - the dashboard is now rubbish in the coming hours as Scally may become number 1 due to less westing than the rest of the fleet. To loose that again when they hop on as the last boat on the elevator to Scotland.. 

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11 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

JJ Giltinan was actually born in 1866 the same year as that first Atlantic race and credited for founding Rugby League in Australia (a professional breakaway from amateur Rugby Union). He was a sports nut, entrepreneur and clearly anti-establishment. In 1935, Giltinan formed a breakaway from the established Sydney Flying Squadron for the Australian 18 Footers League culminating in his founding the JJ Giltinan International Trophy.

http://www.18footers.com.au/sailing/jj-giltinan/history.html

[OT while awaiting the Live] Thanks for that link Jack. Finally finished reading the article--good reading. What a bunch of scrappers, who'd as soon fight it out in the Room as on the water! Sheesh. Anyway, didn't know about Rob Greenhalgh's involvement--impressive.

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DF, Brunel, TtToP and Vestas seem to be already in the new wind

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The south pack now have reached a bit more breeze than the north one, go DF go !

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It could be an important tactical turning point.  NE group vs SW group.  Mapfre will either be 1st of 5th.  Brunel will either be 1st or 4th.

Harder to call for Dong, Im speculating they might be 2nd or 3rd.

Of course, both routes could end up converging as South West get on elevator first and head North to meet up at exactly the same time as the North East group get on board. 

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Mapre and Akzo are now dead downwind of the SW group led by DF and TBRU.  If they get to the new breeze at approximately the same time, and so far it seems to be filling in for them as well, then the first gybe will put them well ahead.

Go Brunel.

 

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Waypoints changed again in the 1300 sked :rolleyes: 

Rank Team At position
Hour UTC 24h run Waypoint
1 MAPFRE 12:59 UTC 169.1 nm Cape Wrath
2 Team AkzoNobel 12:58 UTC 169.5 nm Cape Wrath
3 Team Sun Hung Kai / Scallywag 12:58 UTC 190.2 nm Waternish Point
4 Dongfeng Race Team 12:58 UTC 166.0 nm Cape Wrath
5 Turn The Tide on Plastic 12:58 UTC 170.6 nm Cape Wrath
6 Vestas 11th Hour Racing 12:59 UTC 169.8 nm Cape Wrath
7 Team Brunel 12:58 UTC 169.5 nm Cape Wrath

 

Sorry that the averages since the last sked were removed from the spreadsheet. Still, the 24 hr distances are interesting. Looks like TTOP has done well there.

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 Mapfre and Akzo now also seem to get the new wind.

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Just now, southerncross said:

Xabi should be nervous. 

As he said in the Live. But . . . . also hopeful. Addictive.

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34 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

It could be an important tactical turning point.  NE group vs SW group.  Mapfre will either be 1st of 5th.  Brunel will either be 1st or 4th.

Well I'm still sticking with my Post Presser Prediction with Brunel and the Dong the two question marks fighting over the final podium spot.1375713395_EasterIs_1.jpg.3c31e4561fb3159dfe753f66104a44ec.jpg

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14 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Well I'm still sticking with my Post Presser Prediction with Brunel and the Dong the two question marks fighting over the final podium spot.

Ah, I reckon you haven’t taken on Witty’s bet :P

DF looking good, can now play the SW card, nice. Not over yet though. 

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42 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

Mapre and Akzo are now dead downwind of the SW group led by DF and TBRU.  If they get to the new breeze at approximately the same time, and so far it seems to be filling in for them as well, then the first gybe will put them well ahead.

Go Brunel.

 

I disagree.  Mapfre for me. All the way. Why? Because they are a genuine national crew not packed with boring arrogant Aussie or Kiwi professionals (I don't count NZ Blair Tuke as he is the genuine article fresh out of dinghy racing not yet tainted by the offshore tarts).

All the way mapfre

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1 hour ago, stief said:

Waypoints changed again in the 1300 sked :rolleyes: 

Rank Team At position
Hour UTC 24h run Waypoint
1 MAPFRE 12:59 UTC 169.1 nm Cape Wrath
2 Team AkzoNobel 12:58 UTC 169.5 nm Cape Wrath
3 Team Sun Hung Kai / Scallywag 12:58 UTC 190.2 nm Waternish Point
4 Dongfeng Race Team 12:58 UTC 166.0 nm Cape Wrath
5 Turn The Tide on Plastic 12:58 UTC 170.6 nm Cape Wrath
6 Vestas 11th Hour Racing 12:59 UTC 169.8 nm Cape Wrath
7 Team Brunel 12:58 UTC 169.5 nm Cape Wrath

 

Sorry that the averages since the last sked were removed from the spreadsheet. Still, the 24 hr distances are interesting. Looks like TTOP has done well there.

So my intuition/reaction was right, Scally is on an other wp than the rest and currently #3 with a 1 nm DTL FWIW.

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41 minutes ago, winchfodder said:

All the way mapfre

Is that you SX?  :ph34r:

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All boats have double digit TWS now except for Scally. Worst of the transition seems to have passed, when looking at the wind since 08:00 UTC

 

 

TWS.png

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Worst part when MAPF tops the leaderboard? Silly tweets: :lol: (though, maybe Vila asleep on the stack is a bit disturbing)

 

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VNR 12 June, B-roll & interview, Annalise Murphy, Turn the Tide on Plastic
VNR 12 June, heli: Bull Rock, Ireland, Leg 10 Day 2
VNR 11 June, AkzoNobel stunning drone shots of Irish rugged coasts
VNR 11 June, boatfeed Annalise Murphy/Frederico Melo/Brian Thompson, TtToP
 

 

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8 minutes ago, Rennmaus said:

VNR 12 June, heli: Bull Rock, Ireland, Leg 10 Day 2

Thank you @Rennmaus !

I noted that the first part of this very nice video (+/- first 2 minutes) with the boats beating around Bull Rock is low quality, is that because VOR did not upload that part in HD quality?

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3 minutes ago, Herman said:

Thank you @Rennmaus !

I noted that the first part of this very nice video (+/- first 2 minutes) with the boats beating around Bull Rock is low quality, is that because VOR did not upload that part in HD quality?

I have no idea. The version I downloaded is the same, so it is not YouTube.

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While watching Renny's finds (thanks), noted an Xabi upload in From the Boats

Quote
13 minutes ago
Update from skipper Xabi Fernández onboard MAPFRE: 
 
Hi all,
 
Here we are after 2 days of racing in this 10th leg and one more time. Things are tight and stressful.
 
We have already passed a few very tricky and complicated moments in this leg, starting from the very start, in the Bristle channel where Sun Hung Kai/Scallywag got left behind and if you think twice, it could have been any of us. We were sailing all of us so close to each other.
 
Then as predicted we meet all together in Fastnet where I think, we did ok but by the time the N wind came, we were in the middle of the fleet again. Last night after a bit of tacking and sailing with quite a shifty conditions, we managed to position ourselves north of the fleet.
 
Right now, it looks we are leaving the ridge behind and we are sailing with the new S-SW winds, doing about 11 knots of BS so looks promising. Hopefully we can stretch with Akzonobel and put some ground between us and the rest of the boats but as I said, for the moment it just looks promising.
 
I know it will be a brutal fight all the way to Gothenburg so here we are, trying to eat as much as possible. We have not had barely any rest yet so I hope we can have some good sleeps before we get to the top of Scotland.
 
We have good feelings and I think Joan and Rob are doing a fantastic job calling the nav and tactics from boat to boat so I hope we can stay on the front the next days.
 
Best regards from MAPFRE.
Xabi.

 

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And from Bouwe

Quote
32 minutes ago
Update from skipper Bouwe Bekking onboard Team Brunel: 
 
Some big lead chances over the last 24 hours, all very interesting to see what the different thoughts are onboard all the boats. Still all way  to close to predict who is going well, especially with big breeze coming on the last leg to Gothenburg. At least it will be fast sailing and we have shown that we are not too bad in these conditions anymore :-)
 
Today we have got all plenty of sleep, as the conditions were light. We are now through the ridge and the breeze has picked up to a gentle 7-8  knots. I suspect when one boat gybe later on this evening, that it will be a train, all following and protecting their current position. One might gybe late, hoping to make a jump, but don't expect that of the red boats and us. 
 
For the time being we like to keep it tight with them, we are in a good spot. Capey has been quiet, not too fussed yet with the separation with MAPFRE, who are on paper ahead. Interesting is that DF was not covering MAPFRE , but choose us instead. Charles and Pascal are probably pulling their hair right now, they get a bit emotional :-)
 
Just had the watch change. The  comment from the Pete & Abby said it all: Nice work fellows!
 
4-5 hours to the final gybe.
We keep chipping away!
 
Cheers,
Bouwe

 

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1 hour ago, winchfodder said:

 

I disagree.  Mapfre for me. All the way. Why? Because they are a genuine national crew not packed with boring arrogant Aussie or Kiwi professionals (I don't count NZ Blair Tuke as he is the genuine article fresh out of dinghy racing not yet tainted by the offshore tarts).

All the way mapfre

I think you might find Mambo was saying Mapfre and Akzo had the upper hand albeit he supports Brunel.

As for that funny looking dingy Tuke was tooling around Bermuda on I didn't realise he was doing that for no pay :-)

Large_RH170618AmCup0651.JPG

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In the conditions expected in the North Sea - I wouldn't bet against any team out there. DF isn't going to have that extra speed advantage and they haven't exactly been rockstars at navigating. Rooting for TToP to take a win into Sweden and Dee getting her first win in a VOR event.

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11 minutes ago, stief said:

Bouwe says

Interesting is that DF was not covering MAPFRE , but choose us instead. Charles and Pascal are probably pulling their hair right now, they get a bit emotional :-)

If not a BS issue I still can't fathom why Charles went north tucked up under Mapfre, then started sliding back south to hang out with Bouwe and Co. Very weird.

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19 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I think you might find Mambo was saying Mapfre and Akzo had the upper hand albeit he supports Brunel.

As for that funny looking dingy Tuke was tooling around Bermuda on I didn't realise he was doing that for no pay :-)

Large_RH170618AmCup0651.JPG

Yeah. Reading again 'they' was probably meant for the northerly pair. As for BT I was of course talking about the 49er,  as for pay on ETNZ it was probably less than the offshore tarts. GD keeps it pretty tight I have heard.

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5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

If not a BS issue I still can't fathom why Charles went north tucked up under Mapfre, then started sliding back south to hang out with Bouwe and Co. Very weird.

Did/does seem odd. Maybe it was strategic. Bouwe repeatedly said he wanted both red boats behind, and DFRT hanging with MAPF opened that possibility. Might have been enough to draw Charles' mostly west.

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Steif, in the last two on board reports from a Bouwe and Xabi, Xabi reported no rest for the crew while Bouwe said they had plenty of rest?

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Just now, southerncross said:

Steif, in the last two on board reports from a Bouwe and Xabi, Xabi reported no rest for the crew while Bouwe said they had plenty of rest?

I wondered about that too, especially after the tweet where they are all sleeping on board MAPF. So, inconclusive, and might just be another teaser where Bouwe likes to wind up his audience

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7 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Steif, in the last two on board reports from a Bouwe and Xabi, Xabi reported no rest for the crew while Bouwe said they had plenty of rest?

MOre on this. SP+EN. 

 

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7 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Still very patchy and will take a while to settle. Meanwhile it looks like a wedding party where someones partner didn't show up.

Yup. Big lull and a 40º + shift ATM

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While awaiting the lulls and shifts to stabilize, noticed this cool vid from DFRT (cred Renny's playlist from a few days ago).

1573362976_ScreenShot2018-06-12at10_26_55AM.png.6780599bdff21b24cd9787116e15949f.png

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1 hour ago, southerncross said:

Steif, in the last two on board reports from a Bouwe and Xabi, Xabi reported no rest for the crew while Bouwe said they had plenty of rest?

Maybe Xabi meant no rest till the end of the leg, at least that's how i understood it from the interview in the Daily Live.

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Who will gybe first, interesting to watch, could Brunel force Dong and have it stay in he inside? or the other way around, DF gybes and Brunel has no choice than follow, and how about Mapfre and AkzoNobel, they will have a stare off as well. 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

If not a BS issue I still can't fathom why Charles went north tucked up under Mapfre, then started sliding back south to hang out with Bouwe and Co. Very weird.

Haha. Luke M and Chris N attempt an answer from "the fastest boat in the fleet."

 

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At the moment Vila is covering both well,  he is spending a few degrees, now and then, to slowly keep & gain side distance and will continue like this until the gybe.
Does not seems to be more compressions to the wire, so very hard to catch someone in the apparently easy route to the end.
If in addition MAP takes 1st and  AKZ sneaks in 2nd then the Cape's error will have been huge, not to mention the "in the midle" mind change of DFR on whom to stick to.

Just aficionado thoughts.

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Brunel pulled the plug and gybed. 

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BR jibes in increasing pressure.  Heading only a couple knots left of MF current position, so about 5 nm behind.

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yes a bit of a strange gybe, even though MF TWS is higher than DF and Brunel right now, also a bit tough to tell whether they crossed in front or behind DF (especially on a phone), which is which ?

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8 minutes ago, yl75 said:

yes a bit of a strange gybe, even though MF TWS is higher than DF and Brunel right now, also a bit tough to tell whether they crossed in front or behind DF (especially on a phone), which is which ?

Behind

1783466147_ScreenShot2018-06-12at12_08_09PM.png.dec3113697e17a8b5ef9c7c506538b01.png

and ahead of VS11 and TTOP

1463336566_ScreenShot2018-06-12at12_10_01PM.png.8e3b1022fe598a6121d96893fb52f70d.png

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Will they all know that Brunel gybed? Bit strange no-one reacts? :blink:

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Brunel gybed back, so just wanted to be a bit more north, interesting!

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5 minutes ago, Elisa said:

Will they all know that Brunel gybed? Bit strange no-one reacts? :blink:

All but SHKS should be in AIS range. TBRU gybed back, so maybe playing shifts or fakes :)

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Dong Feng was too close, so they gybed away, then gybed back to sail the fleet down without spilling the beans?  It cost, so they must think there's a reward somewhere..

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Also it seemed like Louis and Burling where rested when crossing the transition.... Louis is the downwind wizard aboard we'll see what happens during the night..

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Ouch. tweet is 30 minutes old.

"Possibly the most important gybe in the @volvooceanrace.. #teambrunel"

 

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Scally is now just 2 hours behind, they must have a special wind god just for themselves...

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1900 sked finally came in (all measured through the "Cape Wrath" waypoint), all 6 lined up pointing at the mark in fine conditions to contrast deep reaching Cape mode vs Turbo vs fastest boat in the fleet.

And best of all, for a little while https://gis.ee/vor/ forss' tracker will allow model comparisons.

Yep. A good day at the races.

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7 minutes ago, Panoramix said:

Scally is now just 2 hours behind, they must have a special wind fickle god just for themselves...

Just a suggested FIFY :D

Their luck has sure been fickle.

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Herman might be up and running more detailed projections shortly, but in the meantime, here are 3 model projections, thanks to forss/squid/windy.

1350813278_ScreenShot2018-06-12at1_23_36PM.png.fb668987f82f60831bb5997bec74b785.png

351827822_ScreenShot2018-06-12at1_23_22PM.png.faf4e48982aa8c739c304a4fe691157f.png

736282842_ScreenShot2018-06-12at1_23_06PM.png.beb95b0a7430a36dc6ed91baf49da315.png

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41 minutes ago, Panoramix said:

Scally is now just 2 hours behind, they must have a special wind god just for themselves...

Their distance to the other group in the table is still misleading since they are the boat furthest in the East. The separation is +/- 40nm and they have to gybe several times more than the others to get an angle for the North of Scotland.

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Odd. Their last message off the boat seems 'normal', but maybe they are "smart gybing" (no big shifts I could spot on playback though).

Quote

Update 1850 UTC - 12/06/2018

The SW breeze has arrived. We are surfing along at 20kts Boat Speed in 20kts TWS, pointed at the North or Scotland. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like our Western most positioning did much to claw back at the fleet, so now the team will have to extra the intensity and try to take in smart gybes and overall boatspeed.

On the deck today when we were becalmed Capey said, "Today the winner of the Volvo Race will be decided." Whether he was joking or experiencing a prophetic moment we'll all have to wait and see.

"It's all still pretty tight," Says Pete. "We lost a little on Mapfre and AkzoNobel in the last transition."

OBR Sam Greenfield

https://brunelsailing.net/us/en/news/greenfield-leg10-day03

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Liking TTTOPs late gybe, but think they could have held on a bit longer. They definitely still ave boat speed issue, high top speeds but lower lulls as well. Just not as consistent as those they are next to.

 

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45 minutes ago, Marty6 said:

Their distance to the other group in the table is still misleading since they are the boat furthest in the East. The separation is +/- 40nm and they have to gybe several times more than the others to get an angle for the North of Scotland.

yes but at the time I wrote this, they were doing 20 knots. I think that they lost a bit now, nevertheless at some point they were nearly one tide behind and 100NM in distance. I think that in passages it is much better to think in term of time than distances.

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2 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

Capey Capey.....Oh No!

They'll be regretting this past 3 hours.

 

 

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Did Yellow just lost this race? :(

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3 minutes ago, Elisa said:

Did Yellow just lost this race? :(

Nah, just protecting their set up. Brunel will have pulled back before they hit Scotland in the next 10 hours.. The high pressure ridge prevents the system that brings the northerlies from overrunning the fleet, actually looks like the eastern boats actually sailing out of the good wind. TTOP and Brunel look to catch up.

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