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The 2018 Golden Globe Race

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Jean-Luc to finish first on 2nd February.

In the morning.  :P  :P  :P

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2 hours ago, ALL@SEA said:

There was another photo in that series featuring a bemused looking bloke with a pot belly and speedos if I remember correctly - and I wasn't yet in my teens in 94...

They weren't speedos......

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6 hours ago, harrygee said:

Jean-Luc to finish first on 2nd February.

In the morning.  :P  :P  :P

A  kind run between the Cape Horn corner and SE Trades and then through the ITCZ could see a January finish which would be way ahead of any pre-race projections.

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Well, I used the same algorithms to calculate the return leg.

2nd February.

Any takers?

I can't offer any Kiwi beer but I'll bet a jar of vegemite, we've got plenty of that.

And a grease gun to help it down.

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20 minutes ago, harrygee said:

Well, I used the same algorithms to calculate the return leg.

2nd February.

If that is the case then less 3:days makes it 29 January

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12 UTC February 4, I think he will be slower going back up the Atlantic. Of course, if he doesn't finish we will all be way off.

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Amazing what response you can get from the offer of vegemite and a grease gun.

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I’m a bit puzzled by these GGR Facebook updates in “auto-translate-ese”.  I can read French, more or less, depending on the subject and how specialized it is. 

But my Facebook feed is in English, so I get Christophe’s  auto-translated (from French) GGR updates (as many do) - but I generally don’t bother to try to read as they’re bad translations, generally, so not easy to read - but can be fun to read: (“Jean-Luc van den heede left more beautiful after his layover tasmanian”) Wonder why GGR, led by an Aussie, doesn’t write these in English, the world’s main second language...I know, we live in a big world with lots of languages/cultures, and the race starts/ends in France, so...so perhaps the Anglo sailing world just generally doesn’t give a fig about ocean racing/sailing, whereas the French one does?  :-)   Anyway, a First World problem...

 

C156875B-0054-4DC9-967E-F3AF8C03737A.jpeg

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Is Australia a continent or an island?  Has that been settled?  Because if it is a continent, right now VDH is essentially one continent ahead of second place and a continent and an ocean ahead of the tail-enders.  

Has there ever been that kind of horizon job in any previous event? 

Not including, of course, the Teignmouth Electron tragic meltdown.

 

 

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For anyone interested, the “un-GGR” :-) recently started.  One old woman, on a new, fast-ish boat (instead of a group of mostly young guys on old, slow-ish boats - VDH being the age-exception).

Jeanne Socrates RTW solo nonstop attempt (third time around via SO?!).  Just left Oct 3: https://svnereida.com/blog

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25 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

For anyone interested, the “un-GGR” :-) recently started.  One old woman, on a new, fast-ish boat (instead of a group of mostly young guys on old, slow-ish boats - VDH being the age-exception).

Jeanne Socrates RTW solo nonstop attempt (third time around via SO?!).  Just left Oct 3: https://svnereida.com/blog

Jeanne Socrates, who alway volunteers to help out on regattas, makes no fuss, and racks up sea miles.  Canadian style.   

Leaving from the PNW in October and heading south to Cape Horn.  She's good at this sailing stuff.  

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3 hours ago, Left Shift said:

Jeanne Socrates, who alway volunteers to help out on regattas, makes no fuss, and racks up sea miles.  Canadian style.   

Leaving from the PNW in October and heading south to Cape Horn.  She's good at this sailing stuff.  

She charms lots of help along the way, is a somewhat erratic, and has started more voyages than she has finished. But for a senior citizen she does OK.

I did hear that the members of one club in the PNW raised money for her second RTW attempt so that they could get her out of their hair ;)

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3 minutes ago, littlechay said:

She charms lots of help along the way, is a somewhat erratic, and has started more voyages than she has finished. But for a senior citizen she does OK.

I did hear that the members of one club in the PNW raised money for her second RTW attempt so that they could get her out of their hair ;)

Well, she's got the eccentric thing pretty well in the bag.  No doubt of that.  

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9 hours ago, Left Shift said:

Is Australia a continent or an island?  Has that been settled?

Aust is one of the seven continents. NZ is regarded as a "drowned continent" which some might say is apt...then again those people probably think Australia is the centre of the earth.

main-qimg-9c3c728a4525c6b0326ac28a3544ab44-c.jpeg

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14 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Wonder why GGR, led by an Aussie, doesn’t write these in English, the world’s main second language...I know, we live in a big world with lots of languages/cultures, and the race starts/ends in France, so...so perhaps the Anglo sailing world just generally doesn’t give a fig about ocean racing/sailing, whereas the French one does?  :-)  

Probably a case of the RO in Tasmania and those frogs at HQ having to use Google Translator which produces stuff you then have to run through an Enigma code breaker.

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3 hours ago, littlechay said:

She charms lots of help along the way, is a somewhat erratic, and has started more voyages than she has finished. But for a senior citizen she does OK.

I did hear that the members of one club in the PNW raised money for her second RTW attempt so that they could get her out of their hair ;)

Tough crowd! :-)

I’m just impressed by her energy/drive at that age.  And after having fallen off a ladder in a boatyard last year, breaking bones, and now recovered - in her 70s.  She’s got some onshore support, but no organized network anything close to what the GGR folks have.  To be that “alone”, it helps to be a bit  eccentric, for sure. :-)

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4 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Tough crowd! :-)

I’m just impressed by her energy/drive at that age.  And after having fallen off a ladder in a boatyard last year, breaking bones, and now recovered - in her 70s.  She’s got some onshore support, but no organized network anything close to what the GGR folks have.  To be that “alone”, it helps to be a bit  eccentric, for sure. :-)

She makes extensive use of SSB (and sat)  to chat at people.  The GGR participants could have learnt a few thibgs about comms fron her for sure. 

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Mark Slats hand steering under spinnaker for four days: how is that even possible singlehanded?!  I mean, I know the guy is tough, and has rowed the Atlantic, but...I can’t imagine how you do this.

C73C15EF-DD84-4E37-A3B7-776D41AFA16A.jpeg

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13 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Aust is one of the seven continents. NZ is regarded as a "drowned continent" which some might say is apt...then again those people probably think Australia is the centre of the earth.

main-qimg-9c3c728a4525c6b0326ac28a3544ab44-c.jpeg

Using a Mercator projection to define continents is always a little confounding, as is calling "Europe" a continent.  Just a small bit of eurocentricity in that map.  What does the Chinese map of continents look like?

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Would any entrants who are looking to race in a year or two be interested in a Suhaili inspired hull? Cold molded and glass sheathed, been afloat but little time in water. I am representing a friend who is about to put his beautifully built, needing a little tlc, near complete project on the market. Please contact me directly for more info.

ext strbd copy.jpg

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Though it is only worth 2 armies per turn, Australia is considered a separate continent when you lump it together with all those other islands.

 

2139957527_04c32c5a45_b.jpg

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2 hours ago, Left Shift said:

Using a Mercator projection to define continents is always a little confounding, as is calling "Europe" a continent.  Just a small bit of eurocentricity in that map.  What does the Chinese map of continents look like?

Intrigued, I googled ‘China-centered map’, and this came up: ‘China has a hard line on any illegal map that “endangers the country’s sovereignty, safety and interests,” according to a statement from Le Weibin, the government mapping official.’

Why China Freaks Out If You Use The Wrong Map: https://www.ozy.com/acumen/why-china-freaks-out-if-you-use-the-wrong-map/67730

(Years ago, living in the US, I had a girlfriend from one of the former Soviet  republics - she said America reminded her of the USSR since, like there, all maps centre on the USA, everything revolves around it, etc.  Big country navel-gazing syndrome.  (Now they wear funny red baseball caps down there to really stand out. :) ) 

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3 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Intrigued, I googled ‘China-centered map’, and this came up: ‘China has a hard line on any illegal map that “endangers the country’s sovereignty, safety and interests,” according to a statement from Le Weibin, the government mapping official.’

Why China Freaks Out If You Use The Wrong Map: https://www.ozy.com/acumen/why-china-freaks-out-if-you-use-the-wrong-map/67730

(Years ago, living in the US, I had a girlfriend from one of the former Soviet  republics - she said America reminded her of the USSR since, like there, all maps centre on the USA, everything revolves around it, etc.  Big country navel-gazing syndrome.  (Now they wear funny red baseball caps down there to really stand out. :) ) 

I once had a Russian ex-pat almost client from a Siberian industrial city who wanted to develop American style apartments in his old home town.  He was in my office and described the site.  On my laptop, I pulled up Google Earth and found some pinterest tourist photos (Google had not driven the streets) that matched his description.  I turned my laptop around and asked innocently "Is this the site?"  He went ash white and stood up and said "I have to leave, right now".  Like I had turned into the devil.

He son was with him and said later that his dad had grown up under Stalin and maps were absolutely forbidden.  He was terrified that he had fallen into a den of spies and literally feared for his life even after his son showed him Google on his own laptop.  

 

 

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Geography is just the start of it.

I went to schools in four countries, each of which featured their country as the centre of the world.

They all claim to have invented everything, won every sporting contest and dominated warfare, single-handed.

With that education, no wonder I'm a fuckup.  :wacko:

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8 hours ago, Mark Set said:

Though it is only worth 2 armies per turn, Australia is considered a separate continent when you lump it together with all those other islands.

Australia is a separate continent. 

 

9 hours ago, Left Shift said:

…as is calling "Europe" a continent.

Separating Europe and Asia as continents makes as much sense as separating North and South America as continents. They are both contiguous land masses.

The pommie affliction of referring to India as "the sub–continent" is just colonial snobbery.

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19 minutes ago, RobG said:

Separating Europe and Asia as continents makes as much sense as separating North and South America as continents. They are both contiguous land masses...

The English speaking world and China largely consider there are 7 continents. If you were taught geography in Europe then probably 6 on account of the following.

Russia, Eastern Europe and Japan, the people there consider the continents of Europe and Asia as one, known as Eurasia. In other places in the world, North and South America are combined as one American continent while separating Europe and Asia instead. Thus, according to these two views, there should only be 6 continents.

However forgetting the either or and go one step further there is a view prefering the presence of both an Eurasian as well as one American continent. They therefore contend that there should only be 5 continents.

Looking down from my space ship you all look alike from here so I reakon just one.

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1 hour ago, harrygee said:

Geography is just the start of it.

I went to schools in four countries, each of which featured their country as the centre of the world.

They all claim to have invented everything, won every sporting contest and dominated warfare, single-handed.

With that education, no wonder I'm a fuckup.  :wacko:

 

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Smetimes you can take your pick...

7,6,5,4..what feels good to you.

Then the standard definition

Amazingly, I'm with Jack and his outworldly perch, you can't see lines from space.  It does beg the question if Jack is an alien.  I mean, he seems to know everything about anything and now admits to living in space....

Jack...is that you? 

alien-picture-id590147780?k=6&m=59014778

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Well, it looks like Van den Heede has gone and done it - he’s just wiped his first blow on the New Zealand road.

I’m not kidding about this - it’s true - read it for yourself (I assume this is a positive development?):  https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2144588272461226&id=1751709878415736

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Just before she left, Jeanne and I were calculating that she might intersect with the GGR racers right at Cape Horn, right around Christmas time.

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7 minutes ago, Foolish said:

Just before she left, Jeanne and I were calculating that she might intersect with the GGR racers right at Cape Horn, right around Christmas time.

That would be something!  A high-summer Cape Horn rendezvous...Hope all goes well for her - she’s certainly had her share of unexpected things happen on previous attempts.

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14 hours ago, bucc5062 said:

  ..It does beg the question if Jack is an alien. 

Everyone is an alien, the mob on earth are just more distant and dumber relatives of the space variety.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/space/7136269/All-humans-are-aliens-from-outer-space-scientist-claims.html

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7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Everyone is an alien, the mob on earth are just more distant and dumber relatives of the space variety.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/space/7136269/All-humans-are-aliens-from-outer-space-scientist-claims.html

I'll go with that.

In the race of the ghost boats, assuming the trackers are still working, Boat Gregor has passed Boat Tomy and opened a lead towards Australia.  
 

Looks like Susie's going into the washer in two days.  Hope all goes well for her.

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7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Everyone is an alien, the mob on earth are just more distant and dumber relatives of the space variety.

 

18 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

I'll go with that.

Well I'm glad you think we are dummies too..can you also please tell that Elon Musk idiot too. Has sent one of his Tesla's rocketing towards Mars with a dummy on board listening to David  Bowie with Post it Notes over it saying things things like "Don't Panic".

WTF...thanks to that fucker our distant extra terrestrial relatives will now be convinced we are all crack heads too. This is serious so please sell Telsa shares and cut off his money supply to this lunacy that will lead to the end of civilisation as we know it.

 

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11 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

Well I'm glad you think we are dummies too..can you also please tell that Elon Musk idiot too. Has sent one of his Tesla's rocketing towards Mars with a dummy on board listening to David  Bowie with Post it Notes over it saying things things like "Don't Panic".

WTF...thanks to that fucker our distant extra terrestrial relatives will now be convinced we are all crack heads too. This is serious so please sell Telsa shares and cut off his money supply to this lunacy that will lead to the end of civilisation as we know it.

 

I think they already know that, look who we put into office these days.  I'm not sure selling Tesla shares will stop SpaceX from doing...umm...unique things.  Since we're way OT and the race is getting sleepy for now, with the second Soyuz booster issue causing the manned capsule to do an emergency landing, will NASA get some balls and push ahead the manned flight of the Dragon module?  It's not like the did 5 launches of the SaturnV before putting meatbags at the top of a controlled explosion.  Perhaps of distant relatives can lend a hand to the ISS for supplies and transportation needs till the US grows a pair again.

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28 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

I think they already know that, look who we put into office these days. 

Yes I'm sure they do. Like how could they have missed even 11,000 light years away the current First Lady doing a past photo shoot on the now Presidents customised Boeing 727 wearing only handcuffs, wielding diamonds and holding a chrome pistol and not much else.

You guys are very weird...you should have voted for her 

Melania-Trump-03-GQ-7-Nov16_Antoine-Verglas_b.jpg

Melania-Trump-02-GQ-7-Nov16_Antoine-Verglas_b.jpg

Melania-Trump-04-GQ-7-Nov16_Antoine-Verglas_b.jpg

 

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13 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Yes I'm sure they do. Like how could they have missed even 11,000 light years away the current First Lady doing a past photo shoot on the now Presidents customised Boeing 727 wearing only handcuffs, wielding diamonds and holding a chrome pistol and not much else.

You guys are very weird...you should have voted for her 

Melania-Trump-03-GQ-7-Nov16_Antoine-Verglas_b.jpg

Melania-Trump-02-GQ-7-Nov16_Antoine-Verglas_b.jpg

Melania-Trump-04-GQ-7-Nov16_Antoine-Verglas_b.jpg

 

Unfortunately, we'd still get him.  I wouldn't be surprised if she extends her world tour till past the election to avoid having to stand with him at rallies.

If that is what is in the cockpit, we would not have a pilot shortage for long, still, that had to be damn uncomfortable to wear.

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5 hours ago, bucc5062 said:

Unfortunately, we'd still get him.  I wouldn't be surprised if she extends her world tour till past the election to avoid having to stand with him at rallies.

If that is what is in the cockpit, we would not have a pilot shortage for long, still, that had to be damn uncomfortable to wear.

Is that dress made of the dogtags off of recent "victims"?

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Jean - Luc is sailing himself into a corner and likely to experience some uncomfortable seas in the next two days.

Mark Slats likes life on the edge and, with 200 miles to go before he can ignore the exclusion zone, he's only 8 miles away from giving Don a chance to use his big stick.

And the middle of the pack is about to get a lumpy time.

It's all happening.

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13 hours ago, Left Shift said:

Is that dress made of the dogtags off of recent "victims"?

I think they are the Donald's hotel suite key tags he hands out to anyone with a vagina in the hotel lobby when he checks in.

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2 hours ago, harrygee said:

Jean - Luc is sailing himself into a corner and likely to experience some uncomfortable seas in the next two days.

Harry I think the operative words are "runover by" not "sailing into"....it won't last long.

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2 hours ago, harrygee said:

It's all happening

Looks like Lean Luc is going for the Faveaux Straight. What is the sailing like there? The chart shows lots of small islands but nothing too difficult.

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8 minutes ago, spyderpig said:

Looks like Lean Luc is going for the Faveaux Straight. What is the sailing like there?..

I can't help other than to say I hear the sheep there get very nervous around anyone wearing boots with no gaitors.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

I can't help other than to say I hear the sheep there get nervous around anyone wearing boots.

Sounds like Wales

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Slats looks to be just about ready to commit a no no unless the next tracker update shows him tacking or pointing very hard.

Susie and Uku staying a little North may help them in the next few days as those lows keep rolling along for the worst may roll below them.

Heede's luck may be tested once he gets past NZ for it looks like some of these systems are staying a bit north a look strong.  He did a fantastic job staying almost on the same Lat all the way along the last Zone so I would think he might do the same.

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Kopar has passed Lehtinen for 5th...

And there seems to be some fleet compression over the last week between them and the three ahead of them.  So there may still be some interesting racing rather than a simple parade after Cape Horn.

BTW...  How many days of food did these folks bring?  The DFL contenders are going to be on the water for a loooong time at the rate they've been going.

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Jean-Luc's approach to NZ, in my mind, confirms that he is getting very detailed weather routing. He was pushed heading north of the strait but new that he was going to get that narrow window of SW'ly flow to allow him to get back south without tacking and loosing Easting. Just shows what can be done within the rules as they are! 

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6 minutes ago, littlechay said:

Jean-Luc's approach to NZ, in my mind, confirms that he is getting very detailed weather routing. He was pushed heading north of the strait but new that he was going to get that narrow window of SW'ly flow to allow him to get back south without tacking and loosing Easting. Just shows what can be done within the rules as they are! 

How would he be getting complex routing under the rules? Transmitted by HF?

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46 minutes ago, Icedtea said:

How would he be getting complex routing under the rules? Transmitted by HF?

Sorry routing was the wrong word.. I should have written "complex weather information"..  He is not allowed to receive routing and I did not mean to state that he is. 

Yes he can get weather information via HF . What I am saying is that he is obviously getting very detailed information allowing him to make fairly fine routing decisions. 

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How is his route different than the shortest considering the next ice limit ?

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26 minutes ago, yl75 said:

How is his route different than the shortest considering the next ice limit ?

As he was approaching the NZ coast, he didn't fight for southing as you would expect in the winds he had at the time.

He knew he'd get a lift so he kept his boatspeed and took the lift as it veered.

If the lift had not come, he'd have been tacking in lumpy seas.

He's a smart, tough man.

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5 hours ago, littlechay said:

Yes he can get weather information via HF . What I am saying is that he is obviously getting very detailed information allowing him to make fairly fine routing decisions. 

Some prearranged short form voice codes transmitted via HAM for wind barbs and pressure gradients with their respective geo positions so he can quickly draw up a rolling  7 day or longer daily forecast charts is my guess. Far easier and more accurate doing that than doing it via official voice forecasts.

My guess Peche had the same sort of forecast arrangement. However beyond those two I think everyone else is muddling on with bits and pieces in the forecast department. It explains why he is so far in front and underwitten by the conditions he has enjoyed in comparison to the others getting, what short of sinking, is an unbeatable lead and buffer for bad bits.

However it doesn't explain why no one else appears to have properly invested in what is the #1 thing for winning races if not finishing in one piece?

Strange.

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From the GGR: Abhilash Tomy went to surgery a few days ago and has quite a number of screws now in his back. Bone grafts were also carried out with the expectation of a full recovery in the months ahead. All the GGR family wish him a speedy recovery and a healthy return to sailing his true passion!

Abhilash Tomy.jpg

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15 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Some prearranged short form voice codes transmitted via HAM for wind barbs and pressure gradients with their respective geo positions so he can quickly draw up a rolling  7 day or longer daily forecast charts is my guess. Far easier and more accurate doing that than doing it via official voice forecasts.(...)

However it doesn't explain why no one else appears to have properly invested in what is the #1 thing for winning races if not finishing in one piece?

Strange.

Not really Jack!

Either one is a sailor (however experienced), or an intelligent person AND a sailor... ;)

As for Don's comments on Golden Globe site...it is really wishful thinking on his part. In my home country it did not evem make a news at rhe back of sport section. On the sailing forum, where are keep posting updates, hardly anyone read it anymore ( there is a counter showing how many times an item is being read).

Even I, very interested at the beginning, am much less so now. "Jester" challenge, is much more full of "true sailing" spirit, than this...

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8 hours ago, QBF said:

Interesting take from the GGR:

How safe is safe?
https://goldengloberace.com/how-safe-is-safe-imagine-it/

Don goes on at length about other Aussie circumnavigators who have cicumnavigated and points out tgat they all were aboard S&S 34........ Hmmm the irony

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4 hours ago, 01_Anna said:

Even I, very interested at the beginning, am much less so now. "Jester" challenge, is much more full of "true sailing" spirit, than this...

Yes a common feeling ..though watching Gregor's boat drift far quicker than Tomy's is worth following in the No Mast No Skipper Challenge Cup.

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Hope a quick recovery for Mark with his rib.

Elsewhere, at least something resembling a race going on:  

Istvan and Tapio have 6 nm between them.

Gregor's ghost decisively ahead of Abhilash's ghost. But anything could happen still!

Can't decide which of the battles is more interesting!

 

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Suzy appears to have had a little wiggle on the last week, has been closing consistently.

 

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On 10/10/2018 at 5:18 AM, jack_sparrow said:

The English speaking world and China largely consider there are 7 continents. If you were taught geography in Europe then probably 6 on account of the following.

Russia, Eastern Europe and Japan, the people there consider the continents of Europe and Asia as one, known as Eurasia. In other places in the world, North and South America are combined as one American continent while separating Europe and Asia instead. Thus, according to these two views, there should only be 6 continents.

However forgetting the either or and go one step further there is a view prefering the presence of both an Eurasian as well as one American continent. They therefore contend that there should only be 5 continents.

Looking down from my space ship you all look alike from here so I reakon just one.

ISTR that we had 5 at school (America, Africa, Eurasia, Oceania and Antartica).

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The tail-enders are under threat from Ghost of Suhauli.

Gregor is winning his division but does anyone know if Tomi's boat still has a rig attached?

Jean-Luc is uncharacteristically slow and appears to be running square in plenty of wind.  Problems?

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2 hours ago, harrygee said:

but does anyone know if Tomi's boat still has a rig attached?

That is what is probably making it slow in comparison to Gregor There is probably up to 6 months battery life left in Trackers so getting within salvage distance from Perth is a possibility, though I suspect they will set too far south.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That is what is probably making it slow in comparison to Gregor There is probably up to 6 months battery life left in Trackers so getting within salvage distance from Perth is a possibility, though I suspect they will set too far south.

Surely they wouldn't dare go into the exclusion zone.

South is good, I'll go out and gaff the first one that comes by.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That is what is probably making it slow in comparison to Gregor There is probably up to 6 months battery life left in Trackers so getting within salvage distance from Perth is a possibility, though I suspect they will set too far south.

Tomi’s Tracker expired on the 3rd. I would expect his boat to be following a similar track to Gregor’s

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Very roughly,, the blue dividers extend to where Susie would have been if she had continued East and where she will be if she maintains her current AWA when the forecast storm comes through in roughly 48 hours. I think she would have a better chance of a good sea state continuing east and getting as much north in as she can. Not sure about Don's wx routing! 

image.png.7b8817e722cafc60b9d1d32ba14db2a5.png

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In the GGR update on FB yesterday Don said he had told both Susie and Uku to get as far north as possible to have a better chance with the storm.  Is Susie getting updates from elsewhere or has Don changed his mind? Sorry can't link to FB at work...

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I hope the folks doing the sailing know by now that Don has no interest in their best interest. The silly vague direction to go suggestions do nothing for the slow boats and is like a backseat driver only not even in the same car. 

 

But Don has the rights to your photos and stories and you can't write a book if you survive. 

 

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6 hours ago, littlechay said:

Wrong way Susie

 

image.png.62f3a9a094f02bc868bcb7f8308acffc.png

At the moment what she is doing is making no sense.  She goes 55 miles sw in a wind that would be find for going east.  Current tracker then shows a track of 3 miles to the SE then back to SW.  I read this:

 

Quote

UPDATE: Susie Goodall Racing just confirmed she could see the calm coming in first Picture. This suggests forecasting is correct. Wind will suddenly swing to the south increasing rapidly and Susie will make for North West. She will have 45/50kts from the south but slowly the wind will swing to South West and decrease as the center moves away. She can then follow that around and slowly start making east course again. If she had NOT turned around the storm may have encircled her creating VERY dangerious seas and she would have been held in it longer. Even now there is going to be a bad sea as she currently has a NORTH swell and will have strong South winds in the next hour. BUT she is now in the safe sector to be blown away from the worst. We are all thinking of her. Watch this on the Tracker and think of Susie. her positions are every hour. It is a nasty storm. UKU will outrun it. Susie said it was so hard sailing west because of all the ground lost in the Race!...#GGR2018 the date and TIME UTC is on top of each photo.

but when I move the tracker foward in windyty it seems the better option would have been to sail NNE for this seems to be a small, tight, and fast moving system.  She would have at worst a few hours of heavy wind then it would be past.  Uku seems more in the path at this point.  If his advise was to sail backwards I'd say nerts to that.  I absolutely agree with the viewpoint that his "help" is not much help at all.  If wanted too, better he give them proper weather forecasts so they don't have to guess all the time.

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11 hours ago, spyderpig said:

Tomi’s Tracker expired on the 3rd. I would expect his boat to be following a similar track to Gregor’s

Expired I dont get that? They are good for 6 months or more without battety replacement with their upload frequency.

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As I read before, her tracker is on a 1 hour mode and from the loosk of her track it would seem so since it is fairly refined.  If Don told her to sail backwards and she actually survives this I would hope for two things...

1 - When she gets to the finish line she kicks his ass from here to kingdom come, sending right into the fucking middle of the storm.

2 - She stops listening to his "advice"

Looking at her track, had she instead angled more north when she got the news she would be closer to the edge of this thing.  Instead, she sailed south right into the heart.  Wave heights 2 hours from now look like 5 to 6 meters and from her current course, more from the side then either bow on or stern.  This cannot be anything close to a good ride right now.
 

Capture.JPG

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Expired I dont get that? They are good for 6 months or more without battety replacement with their upload frequency.

Too many posts from GGR on FB to go back through but I think the thing was not charging properly anyway and batt levels go low so when the ship was abandoned they cut the reporting back to once per day and then a few days later (On 3rd Oct it sent its last report)

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1 minute ago, bucc5062 said:

As I read before, her tracker is on a 1 hour mode and from the loosk of her track it would seem so since it is fairly refined.  If Don told her to sail backwards and she actually survives this I would hope for two things...

1 - When she gets to the finish line she kicks his ass from here to kingdom come, sending right into the fucking middle of the storm.

2 - She stops listening to his "advice"

Looking at her track, had she instead angled more north when she got the news she would be closer to the edge of this thing.  Instead, she sailed south right into the heart.  Wave heights 2 hours from now look like 5 to 6 meters and from her current course, more from the side then either bow on or stern.  This cannot be anything close to a good ride right now.
 

Capture.JPG

Right. And what was previously a wave train generated by northerlies is now from the south.  The shape will be shit! 

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Before I thought Don was just a peculiar Luddite who managed to get a bunch of suckers to pay him to risk their lives according to his rules, but at least there was some "integrity" to the event eh?

But now it seems like he likes playing God to intervene and give bad advice w/ incomplete weather picture, that's at best negligent and dangerous/reckless with another's life - at worst? He's hoping to steer ppl into disaster so he can get more cheap attention and clicks on his stupid site.

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I was trying to see if I could come up with a rationale for his recommendation.  The best I can think of is...  the heaviest wind seems to be narrowest in the SW quadrant...  and she's gotten into a spot where she can broad reach through that narrowest part (albeit with negative VMG) while the system moves downcourse.  So this would limit her time being exposed to the heaviest stuff to something like 6-8 hours.  Whereas continuing Eastbound and/or being caught by the wider North end of it, she may have been in it for significantly longer.

I'm not saying it was good advice.  That's simply the best rationale I can think of for her course.

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57 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

I was trying to see if I could come up with a rationale for his recommendation.  The best I can think of is...  the heaviest wind seems to be narrowest in the SW quadrant...  and she's gotten into a spot where she can broad reach through that narrowest part (albeit with negative VMG) while the system moves downcourse.  So this would limit her time being exposed to the heaviest stuff to something like 6-8 hours.  Whereas continuing Eastbound and/or being caught by the wider North end of it, she may have been in it for significantly longer.

I'm not saying it was good advice.  That's simply the best rationale I can think of for her course.

Yes I agree that would be the rationale for choosing that path. But it doesnt seem to consider sea state; which is what dismasts sailing vessels.  Don seems mortally afraid of wind, so much so that he is blind to all other factors. IMO  ;)

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4 hours ago, spyderpig said:

back through but I think the thing was not charging properly anyway and batt levels go low so

You are missing the point...you don't have to constantly charge their fixed trackers ...a full battery will last for 6 months or more?

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4 hours ago, Miffy said:

But now it seems like he likes playing God to intervene and give bad advice w/ incomplete weather picture, that's at best negligent and dangerous/reckless with another's life - at worst? He's hoping to steer ppl into disaster so he can get more cheap attention and clicks on his stupid site.

 

1 hour ago, littlechay said:

But it doesnt seem to consider sea state; which is what dismasts sailing vessels.  Don seems mortally afraid of wind, so much so that he is blind to all other factors. IMO

It is easy to forget that Suzi has got herself into this pickle as it seems her routing ability isn't that brilliant which is exacerbated by the stupid "voice only weather" platform they are all encumbered with.  No better example of how it has failed is this 11th hour routing crap being offered up by the RO from time to time. I betcha that wasn't in the pre-race briefings.

It is dumb and negligant. I also think it has come about by the RO lining up and drinking from the same trough of self importance where RKJ likes to dip his head from time to time, or at least getting it by osmosis.

If someone else has to be rescued in this event the sailing world needs to give this guy an uppercut. He is cashing in our goodwill cheques from the people who pay for it.

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