QBF

The 2018 Golden Globe Race

Recommended Posts

So, what is the big picture strategy for Jean Luc (and Mark Slats) now?  I don’t totally get the weather patterns.

Currently, at the tip of Brazil, posed to enter the ITCZ and cross the equator, Jean Luc’s got easterlies, favourable winds.  But assuming he and rest of fleet generally follow the crude red “return course line” on the tracker,  i.e., keeping more toward Africa/Spain, isn’t it pretty much totally a beat against the NE trade winds back to Europe (since the route from Europe to the Caribbean is basically downwind)?  Or are the NE trades seasonal and not established yet?

Seems like the other option (?) —but which seems VERY long— after crossing the equator, is instead head more NW’ly, keeping the Caribbean Islands to port, wind (trades) more or less on your starboard beam, then catching a lift from the North-setting powerful Gulf Stream current before eventually cracking off and heading east across the Atlantic with westerlies basically behind you to Europe?

I totally don’t get it!  

But looking more closely at Windy (just for this moment in time) it occurs to me that option 1, keeping closer to Africa, seems to get you favourable easterlies coming off West Africa and, rather than headwinds (the NE trades) as you go north, b/c it’s still winter in the N. Hemisphere, you’ll likely encounter lows, which spin CCW there, giving you generally favourable winds from astern?

I could cheat and get the easy answer by pulling out my old copy of Ocean Passages, but it’s on board, where I am not now - or I could really cheat and look at the Cornell lazy kroozer guidebook (on my bookshelf at home) and connect the GPS waypoint dots :-). But I’m trying to understand the weather pattern for the N. Atlantic in winter and how it relates to their sailing —racing— strategy.

2BD65A31-4C48-460F-A722-C11A58BA4959.png

773339D8-C1D0-4E49-9414-17F58C940106.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

So, what is the big picture strategy for Jean Luc now?  I don’t totally get the weather patterns.

Leaving Recife he has to try to get as much Easting as possible hard on the wind in the general direction of the Cape Verdes.

When the NE trades kick in he will have to bear off a bit and find a lane through the Azores high which is bouncing around like a beach ball, and pick up the W/SW near the Azores.

With boat speeds as they are going around the long way does not pay off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Leaving Recife he has to try to get as much Easting as possible hard on the wind in the general direction of the Cape Verdes.

When the NE trades kick in he will have to bear off a bit and find a lane through the Azores high which is bouncing around like a beach ball, and pick up the W/SW near the Azores.

With boat speeds as they are going around the long way does not pay off.

^^^^^ What he said :)

For illustration purposes here is what Expedition says using the 14 day PWE model.  Screenshot for Saturday 5th Jan 2019

image.thumb.png.bd0c32141cc6d5b8b9258a98f8433b8e.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, Chay and Laser.  Makes sense now (and I recall Jack wrote an interesting crystal ball-gazing route hypothesis above that took into account Jean Luc’s cracked mast issue, etc.)

Which, now that I see what Expedition has given you, seems like a pretty hard, maybe even risky, slog for JL with his compromised mast.  (Of course, he knows better than anyone how much abuse it may be able to withstand.). 

On that note, as part of the weekly sat phone check ins that GGR posts frequently, does anyone know if JL has sent a pic of the crack, and his repair?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They will get east using SE trades to avoid the western/Sth American side where the ITCZ is the widest (as shown by the clouds in pic) then through, find the NE trades up the middle of the Atlantic then using the westerly flow from the Azores High approach the finish from the west. Sounds easy.

Once over the equator is where Heede is most vunerable to attack as he will be forced to sail more miles cracked off to take the pressure off his rig.

He is now finally in a decent SE airstream and scooting along. Slats looks to have already made a lot of easting but the reality is he will have to give some back and flip over to starboard tack to get around the northerly airflow of the St Helena High and get north to chase the easterly then south easterly flow. Heede should stretch out a few miles this week (as Slats also loses VMG) as last week would not have been to his liking taking so long to find the SE.

GMIR.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Slats looks to have already made a lot of easting but the reality is he will have to give some back and flip over to starboard tack to get around the northerly airflow of the St Helena High

Slats is still working it east refusing to flop over to starboard to get north of the high. If he succeeds will leave him with a lot of leverage once through the ITCZ ...the old guy might be in a spot of bother here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Slats is still working it east refusing to flop over to starboard to get north of the high. If he succeeds will leave him with a lot of leverage once through the ITCZ ...the old guy might be in a spot of bother here.

Might as well take some risk to get leverage.  It's not going to cost him second place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

Might as well take some risk to get leverage.  It's not going to cost him second place.

Remember how he got so far behind VDH?  I have not run models, but it was in the same part of the ocean he's in now making a similar play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, r.finn said:

Remember how he got so far behind VDH?  I have not run models, but it was in the same part of the ocean he's in now making a similar play.

That is a bit tough. He was second boat to pass Cape Town and the distance behind then was only a hundred or so miles less than he is now. His route here is also closer to textbook than Heede's who was forced west.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That is a bit tough. He was second boat to pass Cape Town and the distance behind then was only a hundred or so miles less than he is now. His route here is also closer to textbook than Heede's who was forced west.

Which is something 7 (or 8?) of the boats in the event didn't achieve. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That is a bit tough. He was second boat to pass Cape Town and the distance behind then was only a hundred or so miles less than he is now. His route here is also closer to textbook than Heede's who was forced west.

Banging corners on boats this slow is very risky.  If he ends up on the west side of rumbline by the equator, then it will have been for nothing.  For his sake, I hope he can hold the east side to near the Cape Verde islands.  Still rooting for VDH though.  Two seriously tough sailors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, r.finn said:

Banging corners on boats this slow is very risky If he ends up on the west side of rumbline by the equator, then it will have been for nothing.

That maybe but he did doing it his way down the Atlantic after travelling a trillion miles more by going wide, but still came out on top of everyone else except Heede & Peche. 

He has now flipped over to starboard with around 8 degrees of longitude up his sleeve. He will obviously be bleeding that until he hits the SE airflow. Pretty smart in my book for finding a passing lane when the old guy was pushed west, who is trucking at the moment in advance of hitting the ITCZ.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/22/2018 at 2:38 AM, jack_sparrow said:

The line ITCZ proper where wind speed and direction clearly changes is not constant. It moves around all over the place both north south and east west day to day and week to week, depending on time of the year. There is still some favoured spots to cross where it is the narrowest depending on time of year.

Heede is still stuck in a easterly not south easterly flow which has slowed him and also has to back off at that TWA to keep the stick pointing upright . It is not strictly speaking Slats catching up, albeit he wasn't slowed as much as I expected this week.

Looking from Windy it seems VDH is soon out of nice reaching and will get first low winds and then headwinds. Now the gap to Slats is 900 M. Will it ever get over 1000 M again? Looks like Slats can now sail straight to next mark. First close hauled then some reaching. Probably doing soon 130-150 M/24h, which VDH is not going to match sailing close hauled or even headwind with his damaged mast.

 

But Slats needs to sail 27% faster for the rest of the "race".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That maybe but he did doing it his way down the Atlantic after travelling a trillion miles more by going wide, but still came out on top of everyone else except Heede & Peche. 

He has now flipped over to starboard with around 8 degrees of longitude up his sleeve. He will obviously be bleeding that until he hits the SE airflow. Pretty smart in my book for finding a passing lane when the old guy was pushed west, who is trucking at the moment in advance of hitting the ITCZ.

Yep.  He has to hold that eastern lane to make any significant gains. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, r.finn said:

Yep.  He has to hold that eastern lane to make any significant gains. 

Tracker says that eastern lane is narrowing down to a goat track.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Left Shift said:

Tracker says that eastern lane is narrowing down to a goat track.

All I'm seeing is the eastern lane for the hand Slats has played.  Of course there's VDH's mast problem and a whole lot of upwind ahead of them both.  Mega card game for these two to play out.  This isn't as dull to watch as some suggested.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 out of 28 boats did not finish the last Vendee Globe.

How does that rate percentage wise to the two Round the World races going on in old boats at the moment?

I got to say, as far as the Vendee Globe goes, with the trashing of these old boats (and a lot of it justified) in this forum by various posters, I am surprised at the amount of DNF in the Vendee Globe.

Table source below is Wikipedia

Table: Registrants, 2016–2017 Vendée Globe[54]

Sailor Yacht Launch Date/Designer Time
France Armel Le Cléac'h Banque Populaire VIII § Jun 2015/VPLP-Verdier 74d 03h 35' 46" (current record)[55]
United Kingdom Alex Thomson Hugo Boss § Sep 2015/VPLP-Verdier 74d 19h 35' 15"[56]
France Jérémie Beyou Maître CoQ § Sep 2010/VPLP-Verdier 78d 06h 38' 40"[57]
France Jean-Pierre Dick StMichel-Virbac § Sep 2015/VPLP-Verdier 80d 01h 45' 45"[58]
France Yann Eliès Quéguiner - Leucémie Espoir Aug 2007/VPLP-Verdier 80d 03h 11' 09"[59]
France Jean Le Cam Finistère Mer Vent Jan 2007/Farr 80d 04h 41' 54"[60]
France Louis Burton Bureau Vallée Sep 2006/Farr 87d 19h 45' 49"[61]
Hungary Nándor Fa Spirit Of Hungary Apr 2014/Nándor Fa & Attila Déry 93d 22h 52' 09"[62]
France Éric Bellion Comme un Seul Homme May 2008/Finot-Conq 99d 04h 56' 20"[63]
France Arnaud Boissières La Mie Câline Feb 2007/Farr 102d 20h 24' 09"[64]
France Fabrice Amedeo Newrest - Matmut Jul 2007/Farr 103d 21h 01' 00"[65]
Switzerland Alan Roura La Fabrique Jul 2000/Pierre Rolland 105d 20h 10' 32"[66]
United States Rich Wilson Great American IV Sep 2006/Owen Clarke 107d 00h 48' 18"[67]
Spain Didac Costa One Planet One Ocean Jan 2000/Owen Clarke 108d 19h 50' 45"[68]
France Romain Attanasio Famille Mary - Etamine Du Lys Jan 1998/Marc Lombard 109d 22h 04' 00"[69]
New Zealand/United States Conrad Colman Foresight Natural Energy Jan 2005/Lavranos-Artech 110d 01h 58' 41"[53]
Netherlands Pieter Heerema No Way Back § Aug 2015/VPLP-Verdier 116d 09h 24' 12"[70]
France Sébastien Destremau TechnoFirst - FaceOcean Jan 1998/Finot 124d 12h 38' 18"[71]
Did not finish
Republic of Ireland Enda O’Coineen Kilcullen Voyager - Team Ireland Aug 2007/Owen Clarke & Clay Oliver day 56: Dismasted 180 nm SE of New Zealand[72]
France Paul Meilhat SMA Jan 2011/VPLP-Verdier day 49: Hydraulic-keel fissured[73]
France Thomas Ruyant Le Souffle Du Nord Pour Le Projet Imagine Jan 2007/VPLP-Verdier day 44: Damaged hull due to collision with an UFO[74]
France Stéphane Le Diraison Compagnie Du Lit - Boulogne Billancourt Jan 2007/Finot-Conq day 41: Dismasted 950 nautical miles away from Australia[75]
France Sébastien Josse Edmond De Rothschild § Aug 2015/VPLP-Verdier day 30: Damage port foil - South of Australia[76]
France Kito de Pavant Bastide Otio May 2010/VPLP-Verdier day 30: Damaged keel - North of Crozet Islands[77]
Japan Kojiro Shiraishi Spirit Of Yukoh Jan 2007/Farr day 27: Damaged masthead - South of Cape of Good Hope[78]
France Tanguy De Lamotte Initiatives-Cœur Sep 2006/Farr day 23: Damaged masthead - North of Cape Verde Islands[79]
France Morgan Lagravière Safran § Mar 2015/VPLP-Verdier day 19: Damaged rudder - South Atlantic[80]
France Vincent Riou PRB Mar 2010/VPLP-Verdier day 17: Damaged keel - South Atlantic[81]
France Bertrand De Broc MACSF Jul 2007/Finot-Conq day 14: Damaged keel[82]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Peanutbutterjars said:

11 out of 28 boats did not finish the last Vendee Globe.

How does that rate percentage wise to the two Round the World races going on in old boats at the moment?

I got to say, as far as the Vendee Globe goes, with the trashing of these old boats (and a lot of it justified) in this forum by various posters, I am surprised at the amount of DNF in the Vendee Globe.

Table source below is Wikipedia

Table: Registrants, 2016–2017 Vendée Globe[54]

Sailor Yacht Launch Date/Designer Time
France Armel Le Cléac'h Banque Populaire VIII § Jun 2015/VPLP-Verdier 74d 03h 35' 46" (current record)[55]
United Kingdom Alex Thomson Hugo Boss § Sep 2015/VPLP-Verdier 74d 19h 35' 15"[56]
France Jérémie Beyou Maître CoQ § Sep 2010/VPLP-Verdier 78d 06h 38' 40"[57]
France Jean-Pierre Dick StMichel-Virbac § Sep 2015/VPLP-Verdier 80d 01h 45' 45"[58]
France Yann Eliès Quéguiner - Leucémie Espoir Aug 2007/VPLP-Verdier 80d 03h 11' 09"[59]
France Jean Le Cam Finistère Mer Vent Jan 2007/Farr 80d 04h 41' 54"[60]
France Louis Burton Bureau Vallée Sep 2006/Farr 87d 19h 45' 49"[61]
Hungary Nándor Fa Spirit Of Hungary Apr 2014/Nándor Fa & Attila Déry 93d 22h 52' 09"[62]
France Éric Bellion Comme un Seul Homme May 2008/Finot-Conq 99d 04h 56' 20"[63]
France Arnaud Boissières La Mie Câline Feb 2007/Farr 102d 20h 24' 09"[64]
France Fabrice Amedeo Newrest - Matmut Jul 2007/Farr 103d 21h 01' 00"[65]
Switzerland Alan Roura La Fabrique Jul 2000/Pierre Rolland 105d 20h 10' 32"[66]
United States Rich Wilson Great American IV Sep 2006/Owen Clarke 107d 00h 48' 18"[67]
Spain Didac Costa One Planet One Ocean Jan 2000/Owen Clarke 108d 19h 50' 45"[68]
France Romain Attanasio Famille Mary - Etamine Du Lys Jan 1998/Marc Lombard 109d 22h 04' 00"[69]
New Zealand/United States Conrad Colman Foresight Natural Energy Jan 2005/Lavranos-Artech 110d 01h 58' 41"[53]
Netherlands Pieter Heerema No Way Back § Aug 2015/VPLP-Verdier 116d 09h 24' 12"[70]
France Sébastien Destremau TechnoFirst - FaceOcean Jan 1998/Finot 124d 12h 38' 18"[71]
Did not finish
Republic of Ireland Enda O’Coineen Kilcullen Voyager - Team Ireland Aug 2007/Owen Clarke & Clay Oliver day 56: Dismasted 180 nm SE of New Zealand[72]
France Paul Meilhat SMA Jan 2011/VPLP-Verdier day 49: Hydraulic-keel fissured[73]
France Thomas Ruyant Le Souffle Du Nord Pour Le Projet Imagine Jan 2007/VPLP-Verdier day 44: Damaged hull due to collision with an UFO[74]
France Stéphane Le Diraison Compagnie Du Lit - Boulogne Billancourt Jan 2007/Finot-Conq day 41: Dismasted 950 nautical miles away from Australia[75]
France Sébastien Josse Edmond De Rothschild § Aug 2015/VPLP-Verdier day 30: Damage port foil - South of Australia[76]
France Kito de Pavant Bastide Otio May 2010/VPLP-Verdier day 30: Damaged keel - North of Crozet Islands[77]
Japan Kojiro Shiraishi Spirit Of Yukoh Jan 2007/Farr day 27: Damaged masthead - South of Cape of Good Hope[78]
France Tanguy De Lamotte Initiatives-Cœur Sep 2006/Farr day 23: Damaged masthead - North of Cape Verde Islands[79]
France Morgan Lagravière Safran § Mar 2015/VPLP-Verdier day 19: Damaged rudder - South Atlantic[80]
France Vincent Riou PRB Mar 2010/VPLP-Verdier day 17: Damaged keel - South Atlantic[81]
France Bertrand De Broc MACSF Jul 2007/Finot-Conq day 14: Damaged keel[82]

5 out of 18 starters are currently making progress through the water toward France.  One of which has a cracked mast (the leader) and one of which is approximately an ocean behind, and hasn't yet passed a boat that was abandoned weeks ago.  Five boats have been abandoned mid-ocean and left adrift.  Not a great record. 

So far, apparently, no one is lurking mid-atlantic and fabricating their logs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Quite high percentages of DNF in 2008-09 and 2012-13 Vendee Globe too.  

Strange - I thought these modern boats were so, so, so much better than the old shit boxes that the percentages of DNF would not be so high.

Table: Order of Finish, 2008–2009 Vendée Globe[37]

Sailor Yacht Time
France Michel Desjoyeaux Foncia 84d 3h 9' 8" (new record)
France Armel Le Cléac'h Brit Air 89d 9h 39' 35"
France Vincent Riou PRB day 59: dismasted. Redress Given: 3rd place
France Marc Guillemot Safran 95d 3h 19' 36"
United Kingdom Samantha Davies Roxy 95d 4h 39' 1"
United Kingdom Brian Thompson Bahrain Team Pindar 98d 20h 29' 55"
United Kingdom Dee Caffari Aviva 99d 1h 10' 57"
France Arnaud Boissières Akena Verandas 105d 2h 33' 50"
United Kingdom Steve White Toe In The Water 109d 0h 36' 55"
United States Rich Wilson Great American III 121d 0h 41' 19"
France Raphaël Dinelli Fondation Ocean Vital 125d 2h 32' 24"
Austria Norbert Sedlacek Nauticsport-Kapsch 126d 5h 31' 56"
Did not finish
France Roland Jourdain Veolia Environnement day 85: lost keel
France Jean Le Cam VM Matériaux day 58: lost keel bulb, capsized
United Kingdom Jonny Malbon Artemis day 56: delaminated mainsail
France Jean-Pierre Dick Paprec-Virbac 2 day 53: lost port rudder
Canada Derek Hatfield Algimouss Spirit of Canada day 50: broken spreaders
France Sébastien Josse BT day 50: broken rudder system
France Yann Eliès Generali day 40: fractured femur
United Kingdom Mike Golding Ecover 3 day 38: dismasted
France Jean-Baptiste Dejeanty Groupe Maisonneuve day 37: faulty halyards, broken auto-pilot
France Loïck Peyron Gitana Eighty day 36: dismasted
Switzerland Bernard Stamm Cheminées Poujoulat day 36: ran aground
Switzerland Dominique Wavre Temenos day 35: damaged keel box
Spain Unai Basurko Pakea Bizkaia day 28: faulty starboard rudder box
France Jérémie Beyou Delta Dore day 17: damaged rig
United Kingdom Alex Thomson Hugo Boss day 6: cracked hull
France Yannick Bestaven Energies Autour du Monde day 4: dismasted
France Marc Thiercelin DCNS day 4: dismasted
France Kito de Pavant Groupe Bel day 4: dismasted

2012–2013[edit]

Table: Order of Finish, 2012–2013 Vendée Globe[40]

Sailor Yacht Time
France François Gabart Macif 78d 2h 16' 40" (new record)
France Armel Le Cléac’h Banque Populaire 78d 5h 33' 52"
United Kingdom Alex Thomson Hugo Boss 80d 19h 23' 43"
France Jean-Pierre Dick Virbac-Paprec 3 86d 3h 3' 40"
France Jean Le Cam SynerCiel 88d 0h 12’ 58"
United Kingdom Mike Golding Gamesa 88d 6h 36' 26"
Switzerland Dominique Wavre Mirabaud 90d 3h 14' 42"
France Arnaud Boissières Akena Vérandas 91d 2h 09' 02"
France Bertrand De Broc Votre Nom autour du Monde avec EDM Projets 92d 17h 10' 14" (incl. 12h time penalty for unsealing and using emergency water supply)
France Tanguy De Lamotte initiatives cœur 98d 21h 56' 10"
France Italy Alessandro Di Benedetto Team Plastique 104d 02h 34' 30"
Did not finish
Spain Javier Sanso Acciona 100% EcoPowered day 84: capsized
Switzerland Bernard Stamm Cheminées Poujoulat day 51: disqualified after receiving assistance, however he completed the course in 88d 10h 27' 50"
France Vincent Riou PRB day 14: broken outrigger stay resulting from collision
Poland Zbigniew Gutkowski Energa day 11: electrical issues resulting in autopilot not being able to work
France Jérémie Beyou Maître CoQ day 9: broken keel ram
United Kingdom Samantha Davies Savéol day 5: dismasted
France Louis Burton Bureau Vallée day 3: collision
France Kito de Pavant Groupe Bel day 2: collision
France Marc Guillemot Safran day 1: damaged keel

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Percentages of ‘Did not Finish’  Vendee  Globe since 1989-90

1989-90 =  42.85%  DNF

1992-93 =  50%  DNF

1996-97 =  62.5% DNF

2000-01 = 37.5%  DNF

2004-05 = 35% DNF

2008-09 = 60% DNF

2012-13 = 45% DNF

2016-17 = 39% DNF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Peanutbutterjars said:

Percentages of ‘Did not Finish’  Vendee  Globe since 1989-90

1989-90 =  42.85%  DNF

1992-93 =  50%  DNF

1996-97 =  62.5% DNF

2000-01 = 37.5%  DNF

2004-05 = 35% DNF

2008-09 = 60% DNF

2012-13 = 45% DNF

2016-17 = 39% DNF

You're right.   So far the GGR has a much higher attrition rate than all the Vendee Globes and it's far from over. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, r.finn said:

You're right.   So far the GGR has a much higher attrition rate than all the Vendee Globes and it's far from over. 

I calculate current DNF in GGR at 70%.

Granted, the race is not yet finished, but currently 7.5% and 10% more DNF than the '96-'97 and '08-'09 Vendee Globe. 

I would not classify that as "much higher" at this point in time,  but I accept before it's all over your ascertation may then be correct. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

However, the average DNF for the Vendee Globe is 46%, and that's with a smattering of keels falling off.  Speed is your friend.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, r.finn said:

However, the average DNF for the Vendee Globe is 46%, and that's with a smattering of keels falling off.  Speed is your friend.

Fair point, though there have only been two GGRs.

Will the Mad Don learn from this race and allow some of the iconic early fin keel race  boats from S&S , Contessa 32,  etc etc, or we we stuck with full keel Rustlers?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Peanutbutterjars said:

Strange - I thought these modern boats were so, so, so much better than the old shit boxes that the percentages of DNF would not be so high.

I hardly think it strange, you are comparing a Landrover to a Masserati for the job of quickly circling the globe .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I hardly think it strange, you are comparing a Landrover to a Masserati for the job of quickly circling the globe .

More like a Humber (with Lucas electrics) versus that Maserati.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

More like a Humber (with Lucas electrics) versus that Maserati.

I should have said pre 90's Landrover to maintain the marvels of Lucas electrics. Actually I have owned a few Lucas powered English vehicles up to a quarter of a century old and Perkins marine diesels and I think I'm the only one on planet earth never have had a serious Lucas problem, and for minor ones they involved a quick self fix impossible with more modern varients. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Peanutbutterjars said:

I calculate current DNF in GGR at 70%.

Granted, the race is not yet finished, but currently 7.5% and 10% more DNF than the '96-'97 and '08-'09 Vendee Globe. 

I would not classify that as "much higher" at this point in time,  but I accept before it's all over your ascertation may then be correct. 

Or you could say that 25% more finished the race even in the worst VG so far compared to boats still racing in GGR.

Or then you can get totally different figures, if you count the failures per hours spent at sea. GGR boats are likely to be safer in that statistic.

VG uses the latest technology. DNF rate would be much better, if they didn't allow so much (canting keel, foils etc). For GGR Don tried to choose the boats he thought had highest success rate in the 32-36" range 60's boats. Quite a big difference in the approach.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Pre Race Q&A

 

Today is not Throw Back Thursday....Are just jonesing for some Susie Jack?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regards to Heede and Slat's epic crawl up the Atlantic, As was mentioned on the way down, given the slow speed, the shortest distance is generally the better route and even if Heed needs to crack off a bit, it would still seem better to tack up the rhumb line, taking advantage of any shifts along the way.  He may be babying his mast a bit, but if I remember, starboard tacks were better for him and the wind generally favors that.

Slats, he may need to work west of risk a bigger ITCZ light area to cross where as It looks like Heede will once again have found favor with the wind god.  After that Slats still faces the same general problem of upwind sailing so it seems oranges to oranges once both get into the North Atlantic.

 

Since there is no handicap between the two, normally Slats would have to beat him boat to boat, crossing first, but what would be curious to calculate is the penalty impact of (18 hours?).  18 * @ 4.5 kts = 81 (avg upwind) to at most 18 * 7 = 126 miles,meaning the finish line for Slats is anywhere from 81 to 126 miles behind Heede if he didn't have to do some stupid penalty box thing.  Either way he gives up that distance.  I think that will be a long row to hoe for Slats, but if he gets close....it could get interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

  ..I think that will be a long row to hoe for Slats..

I love constants . Bucc you steadfastly elect to remain clueless and write reams of nonsense, albeit very analytical which is great, but despite being given real life clues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I love constants . Bucc you remain clueless, despite being given the clues.

But I'm a happy clueless, besides I like being the straight guy to your quips, it makes for interesting posts.  Enlighten me Obiwan for I did see the LC routing image that had Heede going pretty much straight along the line, I saw your pretty image of the globe with the clouds showing where not to go crossing the equator, and I saw the clue that Slats had to do 27% better to win this thing and that does seem like it a tough job.

Did you wake up grumpy today?  I hope Santa was good to you for Christmas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

Did you wake up grumpy today? 

Hey Bucc,  JS hasn't hit the sack yet.  He's pulling an all nighter because the SH fleet can't possibly find Tassie without him keeping an eye on the shop .... lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

Did you wake up grumpy today?  I hope Santa was good to you for Christmas.

Nope and Santa was good. My Xmas tip is take a self awareness pill.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Hey Bucc,  JS hasn't hit the sack yet.  He's pulling an all nighter because the SH fleet can't possibly find Tassie without him keeping an eye on the shop .... lol

And laser as you force me into another Xmas tip, go sit on an ant heap with a dab of honey up your arse.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Peanutbutterjars said:

allow some of the iconic early fin keel race  boats from Contessa 32,  etc etc, 

No f’ing way you could fit 7-8 months worth of supplies in a C32.  I’ve been in one only once - but seemed very tiny inside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

No f’ing way you could fit 7-8 months worth of supplies in a C32.  I’ve been in one only once - but seemed very tiny inside.

Speaking of which, what is the trash management plan for these tubs?  Most of them took off with stacks of glass jars and packaged foodstuffs.  Are they required to bring all that back home?  Is half of it headed for a Tasmanian land fill site?  Or are they slipping it over the side?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

GGR posted Dec 26 that VDH is (was at that moment in time) 1040 miles ahead of Slats.

(Here: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2192117917708261&id=1751709878415736 )

That is falsely measured. Don seems to measure the distance between the boats, not how far they are from finish. The tracker has shown up to 940 M difference in DTF, which seems to be quite accurate now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, spyderpig said:

Jean-Luc looks to have passed the pot-au-noir already? Now comes the difficult bit for him.

Yes but he did get east to 31W where Slats is now and will have keep going west for a while yet. The old old guy will be breathing a bit easier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Left Shift said:

Speaking of which, what is the trash management plan for these tubs?  Most of them took off with stacks of glass jars and packaged foodstuffs.  Are they required to bring all that back home?  Is half of it headed for a Tasmanian land fill site?  Or are they slipping it over the side?

Left no plastic shit over the side I think. The rest goes to the bottom. Many are using space in front of crash bulkhead to store their empty plastic bottles etc to aid flotation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Communications

Marine HF
1968 A lot of coast stations and weather bulletines.
2018 Most coast stations gone, almost all of the rest dropped voice weather. Good high seas prognoses available from Charlewille/Wiluna Radio(AUS) and Taupo Radio(NZ).
**** Any boat can make a phone call anywhere anytime. Coastal Radio Stations have many frequencies and commercial antennafields to cover their area.
**** Local meteological bureaus beat Windy model 10-1, within their area.
**** Maritime communications is not public in most countries (except distress channels) but nothing stops someone monitoring it.

Ham Radio
1968 No modern noise, a ham station situated at town can work with boats near Southern Ocean.
2018 To work daily with distant boats, you need a good rural location.
**** Most ham operators has neither maritime weather nor sailing experience. Peter(NZ) as an excemption offers weather equally.
**** Ham skeds are usually just once a day.
**** Propagation varies from nil to good by time, frequency, thunder, geomagnetic storms etc. A boat can lose contact with his ham team if plan isn't good. Some did.
**** Most of the entrants were not hams, some made up callsigns. Most of the ham operators wont work with such stations.
**** Generally, it's legal to listen, record and publish ham radio communications.

Satellites
1968 Nothing for race.
2018 Daily and weekly text messages / satellite phone calls
**** Its up to RO what he will publish.
**** We can't know what's happening within these networks. That's the problem.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Xus

cit from russ forum

said on Dec 28, 2018 - 04: 19: 

And rage then? In the first race in 1968 started 9. One finished. One, on the strongest metal yacht, the leader, decided not to finish, but sail to the second around. One suicide. The rest are either saved or off. How are the results of this year different? What are the boats, are the results ...

Probably you are right.
But say very sad things. There is no progress in sailing skill for 50 years.
Yachts fantastically improved, communication, weather forecast ... The results of the aroundworld are incredible.
And the nautical skill level is the same.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Though you didn't mention DSC? ie to make a phone call anytime etc.

Well, I dont see big difference with DSC (to old school HF radiotelephone calls) when sailing middle of an ocean. There is still communities of listeners.
Everyone can use a satellitephone but marine HF's needs a good knowledge of propagation, frequencies, coast stations available and the radio. Oh, no "race" penalty box with HF calls!

Might differ where sailing, but I see advance of DSC-phone calls; Near coast(VHF/2 MHz), perhaps with language barrier for sudden calls when no sat phone available....when such service still available.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Texcom said:

Well, I dont see big difference with DSC (to old school HF radiotelephone calls) when sailing middle of an ocean. There is still communities of listeners.

Tex the point was the HF land station you want to contact to make that RadPhone call won't be listening to voice. Only way you can wake them up is with a DSC page.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lifted from the GGR facebook page. MS is showing some good ingenuity to repair stuff, he has used all his screws and must run out of available bits of wood soon   Good stuff. 

 

Quote

GREAT report from MARK about pushing to windward for days and the cost! #GGR2018

Image may contain: 1 person, sky and outdoor
Mark Slats is with Christophe Favreau.
10 hrs · 

VOICE UPDATE MARK #15

Hey, here's a message from me. A small update on how things are going on board. I thought it might be fun between Christmas and New Year. Everything goes well on board. Sailing close hauled for 14 days in a row had a huge impact on the boat. The suspension bracket of the wind vane completely torn off, he thick-walled steel pipe, it’s not completely torn but for 60% torn, so it suddenly came off almost completely. I have repaired the whole thing with some wooden doors. I made a whole new suspension system. Funny, because I did not stop sailing at all. While the wind vane was steering, I started to make the repairs. As Don said earlier this week it’s a 'Flinstones repair' but it is stronger than ever. I have been working from 16:00 pm until 3:00 am to fix it and to make sure it is really good. I used all the screws I had on board, so that's nice also. Now it’s really super solid, I used half a tube of sikaflex and off we go. I have now reached the tradewinds. For the next 4-5 days it’s all easy. When I reach the equator it will be close hauled again. Right now It’s so hot on board. It is not normal. When I go outside, most if the time it’s all wet and I'm still not healed on my buttocks from the Atlantic rowing. Those spots immediately reappear when my butt is wet for too long. So that’s the situation right now. So I really hurt my * & ^%, it’s really annoying. It feels like there are some kind of marbles in my buttocks. I cleaned my buttocks completely yesterday. Ah well nice story again. So I have completely cleaned it. Now I got wipes on it, it is better. After keeping it dry for a day, it feels better immediately. But when I have to get on the deck it is just soaking wet again so I’m wearing my sailing gear again. Outside it’s forty degrees Celsius and I'm in a full Southern Ocean suit to change my sails. It is what it is! I am working on it all,. It all goes well. My gas stove has fallen apart this week. I heard a bang at night and the whole stove was on the floor. But I managed to repair the stove so it’s back in business again. The last days it was just jumping out of the waves and then folding down. The mast foot has also broken. I could fix it also with wood I had on board. The fact is that sailing close hauled has more impact than the wind in the Southern Ocean can tell you. Because in general, in the Southern Ocean, there hasn’t been much of a problem. There often was a lot of wind, but if you do it right, it is all perfect. Oh please, this is very important, really the most important thing when I arrive … then you really have to bring me ‘Zaanse Mayonnaise’. You know those tubes. I really need that mayonnaise. You can’t buy it in France and when I have to stay in Les Sables d’Olonne for a week or two ... I’ll really enjoy eating good food. It will be nice to eat eggs with the mayonnaise. That would be very nice. So whether you can take 4 or 5 of those tubes with me so that I can enjoy them just as well!

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Uku has sailed himself into a bit of hole. He is going to have trouble extracting himself from that. 

PWE Forecast 10:00 31 Jan NZ time. i.e. 24 hours from now. I think I saw a GGR update that he was letting a storm pass in front. He seems to be doing just that. 

image.thumb.png.1f250a1dd1b79f3328110eff64c51e2c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This forum is not the only one having a go at Don's weather routing and ability to jump to conclusions! 

 

IMG_20181230_190231.thumb.jpg.8d87faea479eeca3fa01bd2ecff4f948.jpgScreenshot_2018-12-30-19-01-21-42.thumb.png.095dec68a92b3e7f4f04fdd133b6167e.pngScreenshot_2018-12-30-19-00-58-02.thumb.jpg.60d0ac438edcdad8a2802864ec4238c3.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

from Jeanne Socrates' blog - who was "hove-to" while slowly heading west for the last two days (~25 miles), as a heavy weather avoidance strategy:

Day 88 Sat-Sun 29-30 Dec 2018 Finally underway again, just before midday Sunday
30 December 2018 21:13
https://svnereida.com/blog/4968-day-88-sat-sun-29-30-dec-2018-finally-underway-again-just-before-midday-sunday

Quote

Sunday 4am Hoped to make contact with Uku - but was not on any frequency at usual time. Think he's probably got some pretty nasty conditions where he is now - high thirty knots with gusts in fifties quite likely and seas to match - not nice.... If he'd had access to proper weather info, he might well have avoided the system - but that was not allowed under GGR rules - I disagree thoroughly with that policy - leads unnecessarily to dangerous situations for the racers. How many are left...?? And how many completed the original race...?? Uku also does not have a Jordan Series Drogue which, properly deployed, keeps boats safe in strong conditions.
[...]
end of Day 88. We mostly drifted another 11 n.ml. DMG over the 24 hr period, measured in a straight line between the two 1900 GMT positions.

 

Day 87 Fri-Sat 28-29 Dec 2018 Hove to - drifting mainly W - nearly made a heart-shaped track!!
29 December 2018 21:33
https://svnereida.com/blog/4967-day-87-fri-sat-28-29-dec-2018-hove-to-drifting-mainly-w-nearly-made-a-heart-shaped-track

Quote

end of Day 87. We drifted 14 n.ml. DMG over the 24 hr period, measured in a straight line between the two 1900 GMT positions.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you take lateral seperation into account the delta between Stats and the old guy is now probably around 450 mile. Take say 100 off that for the old guys penalty box that reduces it around 350nm or 2/3 days. If Slats can average >0.5k quicker this is going to be very close. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

If you take lateral seperation into account the delta between Stats and the old guy is now probably around 450 mile.

How do you get 450? I get 760 difference in DTF at the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, spyderpig said:

How do you get 450? I get 760 difference in DTF at the moment.

counting is difficult it is 708 at the moment :D

3444 - 2736 = 708

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the GGR live news feed:  "HAPPY NEW YEAR and well done to PIerre-Andre Huglo who just sailed around Cape Horn after 156 days at sea non-stop from France in his beautifully prepared Contessa 32 as a participant of the Longue Route 2018 officiel. rally. He now sails north to France. "  

Without knowing all of the details, it sounds like Pierre sailed from France to Cape Horn quicker than any of the boats in the GGR, in a freaking Contessa 32!  Pretty astonishing if that's the case.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, mowgli said:

counting is difficult it is 708 at the moment :D

3444 - 2736 = 708

Nah. Jack has a secret formula, its more or less 450.

3444 - 2736 - secret_correction = 450

Slats has talked more on the radio than sailing, if he has now new habits he also will make new mistakes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, r.finn said:

From the GGR live news feed:  "HAPPY NEW YEAR and well done to PIerre-Andre Huglo who just sailed around Cape Horn after 156 days at sea non-stop from France in his beautifully prepared Contessa 32 as a participant of the Longue Route 2018 officiel. rally. He now sails north to France. "  

Without knowing all of the details, it sounds like Pierre sailed from France to Cape Horn quicker than any of the boats in the GGR, in a freaking Contessa 32!  Pretty astonishing if that's the case.

 

From GGR: Golden Globe Race No JL VDH was 145 but wasted 10 days with film drops and mast damage so could have been 135 days?? maybe??..but a smaller boat like Contessa 32 and S&S 34 are easily faster in many conditions..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, r.finn said:

From the GGR live news feed:  "HAPPY NEW YEAR and well done to PIerre-Andre Huglo who just sailed around Cape Horn after 156 days at sea non-stop from France in his beautifully prepared Contessa 32 as a participant of the Longue Route 2018 officiel. rally. He now sails north to France. "  

Without knowing all of the details, it sounds like Pierre sailed from France to Cape Horn quicker than any of the boats in the GGR, in a freaking Contessa 32!  Pretty astonishing if that's the case.

Saw that too - and I was going to “reply” to my post somewhere above expressing skepticism that a Contessa 32 could carry supplies for that many months (they’re very small inside).  Impressive!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, spyderpig said:

How do you get 450? I get 760 difference in DTF at the moment

Slats is around 300 mile further east that the old guy has to get back further up the track. This is not a straight line drag race.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Slats is around 300 mile further east that the old guy has to get back further up the track. This is not a straight line drag race.

Agreed.  This is not funny math.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, r.finn said:

From GGR: Golden Globe Race No JL VDH was 145 but wasted 10 days with film drops and mast damage so could have been 135 days?? maybe??..but a smaller boat like Contessa 32 and S&S 34 are easily faster in many conditions..

A smaller, better designed boat.  

Query...how many of the Longue Route boats have decided to make the Indian Ocean or Southern Pacific Ocean their permanent home?  Haven't heard of any.  Don must not have been giving them routing advice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can "the old guy" serve his penalty by just sailing east when he reaches the area he has to do the penalty?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, r.finn said:

From GGR: Golden Globe Race No JL VDH was 145 but wasted 10 days with film drops and mast damage so could have been 135 days?? maybe??..but a smaller boat like Contessa 32 and S&S 34 are easily faster in many conditions..

‘A smaller boat are easily faster’

 

1.34 x root LWL in feet anybody??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Snowden said:

‘A smaller boat are easily faster’

 

1.34 x root LWL in feet anybody??

That is funny math.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don's latest weather wisdom.

 

image.thumb.png.6a6385f3cb8602dc759cc65f325e7255.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, DtM said:

Can "the old guy" serve his penalty by just sailing east when he reaches the area he has to do the penalty?

No he gets it on the end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I recall something about crossing a certain line of latitude, then ducking back under it for the length of the penalty but only being allowed to recross within 40nm of the original crossing? So he could make up some of the 300 eastward miles potentially. 

Is there actually a prize for getting back first other than escaping the circus? VDH has the victory in my eyes regardless of the line result. Would find it amusing if Slats did catch up enough to pass and then sailed alongside to finish together. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

“Time penalties allocated to an Entrant will be served in a Penalty Box (TBA in the sailing instructions) On crossing north of 45 degrees North latitude, the Entrant suffering a time penalty must then return south of that latitude (Penalty time starts) and not cross North of it again (within 40 miles of the crossing longitude), until the time penalty has been served. The entrant may then make for the finish line.”

 

https://goldengloberace.com/app/uploads/2018/02/GGR-NOR-EN-050218.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.d242358556f667a2085b29d48f1c125d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKU - Forecast (PWE) for just under 48 hours time. 07:00 Kiwi time on the 4th. Running NE as some of us have suggest in the past should be safer than diving into the unpredictable southern sector. 

Uku's current position at the end of the red track. Divider at 190NM for reference and scale. 

 

image.thumb.png.dd42a821a195058aec96486044f57f28.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do I detect RO a more information provider than a instructor now for these weather events?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites