DryArmour

Newport-Bermuda Wx 2018

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With just 11 days between now and the start of the 2018 Newport-Bermuda race, the maps are all over the board that far out on the horizon. The GFS seems to think that there will be some sort of disturbance either near or over NOLA on June 16th. That spins off some energy to the east  and into the Atlantic by Sunday the 17th. That could have some pretty major effects on the race if it comes to fruition. The EURO model is much more relaxed about the atmospheric situation and show little if any rogue energy in the area. Given the recent pre-season antics in this same district, I am not ruling out some activity, possibly tropical in nature and potentially moving into the Atlantic basin or at least creating some wet and potentially windy in nature along the race track for the week of the 17th through 23rd.

We had several teams over the weekend ask about getting customized shorts, shirts and/or hats before the race.  There is still time, but please try and send in or call with orders by Tuesday evening June 5th to avoid expensive freight charges. As a reminder, we will create your artwork for free. Just click http://www.dryuv.com/saoct.htm for more information.

Newport-Bermuda issues 2018.jpg

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Thanks Mark, appreciated your counsel last year as well,  thanks for adding some sanity to the pre-race briefing that seemed to be a little overboard on the cautious side of the equation.

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2 hours ago, Lono said:

Thanks Mark, appreciated your counsel last year as well,  thanks for adding some sanity to the pre-race briefing that seemed to be a little overboard on the cautious side of the equation.

Thank you for that.  I am a fan of reality but fully understand that events like Sydney -Hobart 1998 are also possible. People lives are at stake and I never lose sight of that when forecasting.

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Thanks, Mark.  I think I speak for all of us when I express my appreciation for your input.

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19 minutes ago, sshow bob said:

Thanks, Mark.  I think I speak for all of us when I express my appreciation for your input.

Thank you sshowbob. Much appreciated.  For those mariners whi happen to be transiting between the Panama canal or southwestern Mexico toward Baja and points west, pay attention to what is likely to become the first named tropical system of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane system over the next few days.

 

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On 6/4/2018 at 3:54 PM, TonyFromSheepsheadBay said:

Please let's not have a repeat of 2016 where the experts scared half of the fleet into the barn. 

Quality weather routing is worth every penny. 100% of my clients raced that year based on an accurate forecast at the 11th hour and all did well. Some teams pulled the plug too early in 2016.

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Nobody said it was you. Let’s not try to set yourself up too early.

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What sort of packages do you offer for routing?  

I stayed up all night Thursday before the race 2 years ago and I simply couldn't see the doom and gloom happening... but we nearly had a crew revolt over it.  In the end we went, and never even reefed the main.

 

 

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22 hours ago, BDA_Moose said:

What sort of packages do you offer for routing?  

I stayed up all night Thursday before the race 2 years ago and I simply couldn't see the doom and gloom happening... but we nearly had a crew revolt over it.  In the end we went, and never even reefed the main.

 

 

Exactly. On routing:  For something like Newport-Bermuda or Pacific Cup or TransPac the full package is $900. That will give you five days worth of data specifically tailored to your boat's 95% polars. I am expensive but the number of return customers versus those who didn't think it was worth it is about 10:1.  I do my best to only take one boat per class so there is no conflict of interest and I can give you the maximum amount of detailed information available right up to 15 minutes before your start (The bulk of the data is race day morning and pretty graphic intensive). Thank you for asking.  If you are racing this year, have a great run and be safe, stay aboard and reef early if necessary.

 

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Between the random Gulf Stream gyres and high pressure systems popping up around the course, I susepct this years race will put a premium on navigation and weather more than most years.  Good luck everyone and have a safe a pleasant trip to paradise.

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For those of us stuck following the race from the shore, would you mind offering us a quick Wx synopsis?  All I see is that the start looks pretty light.

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28 minutes ago, jewingiv said:

For those of us stuck following the race from the shore, would you mind offering us a quick Wx synopsis?  All I see is that the start looks pretty light.

Yes, I will do something very broad brush either Thursday night or Friday morning if possible. Between Tropical system Bud and clients doing Newport-Bermuda my plate is very full at the moment.

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8 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

Yes, I will do something very broad brush either Thursday night or Friday morning if possible. Between Tropical system Bud and clients doing Newport-Bermuda my plate is very full at the moment.

Thank you so much, and totally understood.  Clients definitely come first.  Though all of us appreciate your insight into such matters.

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Depending on how big your shoes are the strategy will vary wildly. The faster boats will likely be able to sail straight down the pipe. The slower boats may find more success digging south and then using a building SWerly to get across the pond. Overall not a bad year to be sailing this race...

Good luck to all. I'll post again tomorrow if time allows.

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The word for this year's race is "Eddy". Find them and win.

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Getting lots of requests for delivery assistance back to the mainland as the slow moving low making its way toward the east coast is raising the CAPE values quickly and there should be plenty of fireworks this afternoon from Wilmington, NC and Northeastward to off the Maryland coast.  Some adverse winds for people trying to leave Saturday through Monday as well.

Be safe out there people.

 

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On 6/15/2018 at 9:41 AM, DryArmour said:

The word for this year's race is "Eddy". Find them and win.

We missed em and said f’it, and got to the West during the lightest stuff, once it started to fill we flipped back and steered 155 for over 150nm straight to bda with an awa of 60-70... 

 

 

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Smart call. We drove for a predicted eddy near rhumb, ended up slightly east of rhumb and got screwed with our computer showing 3 kts of current out of the SW, translating to 0.5-1kt on the nose about 130nm out of from Bermuda. Lets just say not a great race for us, but sailing is always better than sitting behind a computer!

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