Herman

VOR Leg 11 Gothenburg to The Hague

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Why DTLs calculations can’t be trusted until the westerners  turn the corner. MAPF is closest, by calculation, to the finish.

1AAB1584-3759-47F0-B6D5-0CF59FAE19BF.thumb.jpeg.08575bd158b32c2791b7d3e3589d8ac4.jpeg

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Okay Anarchy peeps ... I'm off to bed for a few hours. When I return I will be totally stressed out to see 200+ posts and several pages to catch up with.

Hopefully Mapfre 10nm in he lead though :D

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For the cloggs, from 1305 NPO1 broadcast on telly for an half hour.

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3 minutes ago, Diva39 said:

Well I do. As descrpied earlier, Brunel has 40 miles to go, with 10 knots (or less) of wind wind straight in the ass (lots of gyping), while DF has 60 miles to go with 15-17 knots broad reach,.

I have sad news Diva, we finally get a decent steadyish breeze for the finish. There will be tumbling numbers for sure but the podium is out West.

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3 minutes ago, Dennis6748 said:

Again a tracker glitch? Mapfre in front by 0.5 nm

Take out the TSS and the tracker is correct. 

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1 minute ago, Sailbydate said:

Take out the TSS and the tracker is correct. 

No, if you measure the actuall distance between the boats using the tool in the tracker. Mapfre "sailed" within a few minuets from 0.5 nm astern of brunel to 0.5 nm in front of them

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good lord, good some on this board are not navigators...

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11 minutes ago, paps49 said:

I have sad news Diva, we finally get a decent steadyish breeze for the finish. There will be tumbling numbers for sure but the podium is out West.

Not quite so sad for me, as I hope Akzo will take the leg and Brunel the edition. ^_^

But even though the wind calm for all, DF still have a more wind and better angle for a few hours, while Brunel et al have to beat their way to NAM 22. This is my estimate, we will see soon.

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Steady breeze, one design, Burling at the helm....

Hmmmm.....:rolleyes:

Mapfre will be hoping the paint wagon can get in the way and screw things up.

Oh..their too Dutch...:lol:

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1 minute ago, despacio avenue said:

How do you know?

course 220

boatspeed 18+

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Little bird told me the routing has DF 7 minutes from finish at the gun.  That is going to be gutting. Anybody here have a "live" routing going?

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DF now 6 knots faster than the western fleet!

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9 minutes ago, LeoV said:

good lord, good some on this board are not navigators...

I start to think at times Leo some sudden VOR newbies here may not even be human.

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7 minutes ago, LeoV said:

good lord, good some on this board are not navigators...

. . .  Nor readers. Herding cats. 

Gad I love this place

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Don't everybody lose their minds when the leaders have negative VMG.  "where are they going? is the tracker broke?"

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2 minutes ago, maartenvr said:

DF multiplies VMG compared to west lot

Forget VMG as long as they don't count the TSS.

Just compare SOG.

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7 minutes ago, SYDE said:

course 220

boatspeed 18+

I just used up my quota of likes but thank you, Syde, and fuck you, Leo. 

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Last routing  shows the West pack arriving first (in the order you wish for, too close to call) then Dongfeng (arriving 10 Minutes later) then Vestas, TTTOP and SHKS...... Don't stay in front of you computer with a tracker that is not smart enough to take into account Exclusion zone and give false information. 

 

 

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Weather routing

Input

- wind the HIRLAM 2,5 km resolution 1 hr timesteps.

- 07:00 UTC positions

- no waves or currents unfortunately. The BSH distributed the North Sea GRIBs 2 days before today, and I missed those.

Output

- Akzo beats DFRT by 3 (!) minutes.

- ETA 18 UTC / 20 CEST (=local time)

I'm now off the Scheveningen, I'm being interviewed in the www.zeilhelden.nl studio there at 14:00. Zeilhelden has also a RIB there, I'm trying to fix a ride out as Zeilhelden- blogger.

 

 

 

 

 

routing 240618.png

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Just now, BozoC said:

 

Last routing  shows the West pack arriving first (in the order you wish for, too close to call) then Dongfeng (arriving 10 Minutes later) then Vestas, TTTOP and SHKS...... Don't stay in front of you computer with a tracker that is not smart enough to take into account Exclusion zone and give false information. 

 

 

How recent routing

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There has definitely been a couple of glitches with the tracker. Both times they showed Brunel stop and mapfre passing to leeward. Why do you have to get so smug ? 

 

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3 minutes ago, Herman said:

Weather routing

Input

- wind the HIRLAM 2,5 km resolution 1 hr timesteps.

- 07:00 UTC positions

- no waves or currents unfortunately. The BSH distributed the North Sea GRIBs 2 days before today, and I missed those.

Output

- Akzo beats DFRT by 3 (!) minutes.

- ETA 18 UTC / 20 CEST (=local time)

I'm now off the Scheveningen, I'm being interviewed in the www.zeilhelden.nl studio there at 14:00. Zeilhelden has also a RIB there, I'm trying to fix a ride out as Zeilhelden- blogger.

 

 

 

 

 

routing 240618.png

Thanks Herman for all your work! Glad you got back to SA. Safe travels; I envy you being there.

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4 minutes ago, Herman said:

 

Output

- Akzo beats DFRT by 3 (!) minutes.

 

Holly cr..p ! thanks for that !

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5 minutes ago, Herman said:

Weather routing

Input

- wind the HIRLAM 2,5 km resolution 1 hr timesteps.

- 07:00 UTC positions

- no waves or currents unfortunately. The BSH distributed the North Sea GRIBs 2 days before today, and I missed those.

Output

- Akzo beats DFRT by 3 (!) minutes.

- ETA 18 UTC / 20 CEST (=local time)

I'm now off the Scheveningen, I'm being interviewed in the www.zeilhelden.nl studio there at 14:00. Zeilhelden has also a RIB there, I'm trying to fix a ride out as Zeilhelden- blogger. 

Bon voyage, and thanks for the projection. 3 minutes!

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Btw, even top match racer Ian Williams is confused by ocean racing top teams in OD

 

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10 minutes ago, Herman said:

Weather routing

Input

- wind the HIRLAM 2,5 km resolution 1 hr timesteps.

- 07:00 UTC positions

- no waves or currents unfortunately. The BSH distributed the North Sea GRIBs 2 days before today, and I missed those.

Output

- Akzo beats DFRT by 3 (!) minutes.

- ETA 18 UTC / 20 CEST (=local time)

I'm now off the Scheveningen, I'm being interviewed in the www.zeilhelden.nl studio there at 14:00. Zeilhelden has also a RIB there, I'm trying to fix a ride out as Zeilhelden- blogger.

 

 

 

 

 

routing 240618.png

Thanks Herman. Your weather/routing posts continue to amaze and confuse me. :P

Oh shit, I'm supposed to be in bed!

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Looking at the actual tracker (NOT the numbers!) Brunel seems to be losing some ground on both Akzo and Mapfre. Changing gears ahead of the gybe?

Go Brunel!!!

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Hard to believe it’s almost over!

Being an American I was rooting for V11HR but too many bad things happened. What an epic event! The Golden Globe Race will seem like a race to watch the paint dry by comparison...lol

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1 minute ago, Beast Mode Killa said:

Race experts favouring donger now!

They read my posts! :P

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3 minutes ago, Beast Mode Killa said:

Race experts favouring donger now!

Race experts favouring crack cocaine now!

Diva39 is their dealer :-)

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2 minutes ago, Beast Mode Killa said:

Race experts favouring donger now!

Wait until the trio turn the corner...

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

Race experts favouring crack cocaine now!

They must be pissing themselves laughing how easily they can wind ‘em up 

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Just now, FinnFish said:

Wait until the trio turn the corner...

That will slow them, so DF will have even more speed advantage.

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10 minutes ago, Loose Cannon said:

O ffs get a chopper up there!

 

This is a very sensitive topic here. It is my pet peeve re the VOR re the ( lack of adequate  ) coverage of the finishes and starts of the race legs. I complain every time. Short answer according to VOR; it is worried about s park up like Newport but in daylight and then having the heli have to turn back and refuel. No mention of having more than one, with one ready to go on standby. It will not break the bank. Drone coverage restricted by cities and countries. Don't get me started. I email or text VOR all the time.

Edited by despacio avenue
Wrong word

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Now they passed the corner, so from now on, we kan use the numbers on the tracker.

DF has exactly 20 miles to catch up, with a speed advantage of 6 kts. That's basically a litte more than 3 hours to status quo - or actually less, because the western fleet can not sail straight to NAM 22.

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Just now, AnotherSailor said:

I am wondering if some people here have ever even been on a sailboat...

All part of getting more people interested in our sport. Last night, it was all the wives excitedly discussing the VOR our club BBQ. They were all first-time followers, and keen to show up their husbands.

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2 minutes ago, despacio avenue said:

This is a very sensitive topic here. It is my pet peeve re the VOR re the ( lack of adequate  ) coverage of the finishes and starts of the race legs. I complain every time. Short answer according to VOR; it is worried about s park up like Newport but in daylight and then having the heli have to turn back and refuel. No mention of having more than one, with one ready to go on standby. It will not break the bank. Drone coverage restricted by cities and countries. Don't get me started. I email or text VOR all the time.

They stated quite clearly during the last live show that the boats are out of range of getting the signal back truly live.

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3 minutes ago, AnotherSailor said:

I am wondering if some people here have ever even been on a sailboat...

Even if that is true, so what?

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having fast RIBs with Drones would probably be much cheaper (and less fuel burning) than choppers

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1 minute ago, Potter said:

They stated quite clearly during the last live show that the boats are out of range of getting the signal back truly live.

Yes, that was then, but now?

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1 minute ago, yl75 said:

having fast RIBs with Drones would probably be much cheaper (and less fuel burning) than choppers

but doesn't help getting the signal to the shore...

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So does anyone else foresee a jibe-fest down the ice-exclusion-zone windfarm-exclusion-zone ?

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Just now, despacio avenue said:

Yes, that was then, but now?

Now? they are further away than before...

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42 minutes ago, despacio avenue said:

I just used up my quota of likes but thank you, Syde, and fuck you, Leo. 

Desperado chill. Leo has forgotten more about building, fixing and racing boats than 99% people here know. He appears a bit gruff but that is only because he is Dutch. I have no such excuse.

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Who s calling DFRT to win?  It is starting to look that way to me, and that gives a little more option for TTTOP to get a boat between them and Scally!

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3 minutes ago, despacio avenue said:

Even if that is true, so what?

Sorry, just frustrated to read 20 comments about tracker numbers etc. 

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2 minutes ago, yl75 said:

having fast RIBs with Drones would probably be much cheaper (and less fuel burning) than choppers

Potter can address this also as I said the same thing previously but again there are apparently limited nd on the ribs and coverage, and I already addressed the drone issue, and got this Potter too who had the info.

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DF 20,1 kts - Brunel 11,4 kts!

The western fleet is f...!

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I think the most interesting point is that DF is racing their polars.  They need to focus on one main thing - boatspeed.  A little care taken not to touch the bottom (4.8m!) but basically they are looking at the end of the race track in tunnel vision.  They are fighting the clock and to a degree, the current.

The western boats are racing each other in sight.  That means they might get a pack benefit, but they can also miss a step on DF if they focus on the wrong things.  Cudos to Mapfre for getting back in the group having kind of messing up the split.  Plus, in close quarters, there is the small chance of team racing.  A headfake by Akzo, or just pinching up a bit more than needed to spring the Brunel boat.

What got Brunel here was just putting the hammer down.  They need to sail their own race, IMHO, not easy to do with two boats in direct contact.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Desperado chill. Leo has forgotten more about building, fixing and racing boats than 99% people here. He appears a bit gruff but that is only because he is Dutch. I have no excuse.

Thanks, and I thought I brought it very nice.

Brunel not worried too much about Mapfre, but DF they can not control (live interview on telly)
85000 Km sailed and all hangs on the last 100km.

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10 minutes ago, AnotherSailor said:

I am wondering if some people here have ever even been on a sailboat...

What's a sailboat?? Isn't this the Greenland Curling Championship forum??

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6 minutes ago, Potter said:

Now? they are further away than before...

Yes but it seems that there would be the ability to use Inmarsat/satellites/ wind turbines have comm devices VOR could rent. This is maybe the best finish this race will ever see and it seems a shame to not be creatuve and figure out a way for thousands or more property me to see it live for more than 40 minutes, 

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5 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Thanks, and I thought I brought it very nice.

Brunel not worried too much about Mapfre, but DF they can not control (live interview on telly)
85000 Km sailed and all hangs on the last 100km.

And we can't see it!!!! I tried the get your Telly on Periscope.

leo you are forgiven; I was reacting to your navigator shot, 

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Last legs since Auckland,
Bru 1-2-1-1
only Mapfre stole one win from them.

Go Brunel, Yellow above Red.

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1 minute ago, yl75 said:

MF gybed

And up to speed. 13 knots is good.

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Oh boi. Brunel is gifting Mapfre separation, and if the wind is dying to the west /south then Mapfre potentially will get more breeze being up to windward as well....

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West boats will get lifted on port gybe the farther they sail east, DF will get headed onto a hotter and hotter angle...gah

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