Herman

VOR Leg 11 Gothenburg to The Hague

Recommended Posts

As for downwind reaching, Mapfre’s specialty, they are going to roll Pablo out of his bunk and he’ll send it like he has stolen it. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, southerncross said:

The Dutchies setting up for that wicked angle and will overtake Dongfeng and Mapfre on the reach South.

I can live with that scenario SX. TWS is higher for the boats closest to Norway but TWA tighter. They are are sailing above and around the leaders. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Admirals said:

Damm AIS?  TTOP aims north of TSS,  Scally follows, Akzo tacks at cost of soms miles ... Brunel tacks at cost of 2-3 miles then Mapfre goes and Dong and Vesta follow...  and literally all bets are off.

I think it was new weather forecast.  Akzo reacted, Brunel took longer to assess the situation then followed. Mapfre and co are already committed so it's a harder decision to make as they are giving up more miles. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The cloggies are chipping away quickly, now down to 4,1 and 4,6 nm DTL. Red boats could get worried with TBRU closing in fast. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mapfre tack!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just in from a cold but epic downwinder kiting session in a 30-40 knot NWester in Cape Town. Great to see Brunel still in which a chance, I presume Akzo and Brunel are heading over to try to get the stronger breeze first? While Mapfre cover Dongfeng? Anyway, watched a bit of the Aarhus flyby and good to see a kiter, on a foilboard, plus a windsurfer and what looked like a foiling moth accompanying the leaders. I get to watch the end of this race tomorrow online, then head back to the flatlands of Illinois for some warmer weather kiting and sailing. I'd like to say "May the best boat win", but I really want Bouwe to take this leg and the whole enchilada.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Just in from a cold but epic downwinder kiting session in a 30-40 knot NWester in Cape Town. Great to see Brunel still in which a chance, I presume Akzo and Brunel are heading over to try to get the stronger breeze first? While Mapfre cover Dongfeng? Anyway, watched a bit of the Aarhus flyby and good to see a kiter, on a foilboard, plus a windsurfer and what looked like a foiling moth accompanying the leaders. I get to watch the end of this race tomorrow online, then head back to the flatlands of Illinois for some warmer weather kiting and sailing. I'd like to say "May the best boat win", but I really want Bouwe to take this leg and the whole enchilada.

As an added excitement and minor hijack. You watching the rugby? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Elisa said:

As for downwind reaching, Mapfre’s specialty, they are going to roll Pablo out of his bunk and he’ll send it like he has stolen it. 

And then get passed like he is standing still.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not really, Mad, I caught some of the Springboks beating up on the Lions earlier, but I'm mostly watching World Cup soccer, most games of which are being shown on the local SABC1 over-the-air channel. Otherwise one has to pay through the nose for satellite TV here.

For anyone who cares, the good news here, apart from Zuma and the Guptas being shown the door, is that Cape Town's drought is being broken as I speak. It is bucketing down and has been a proper Cape Town winter for a change with storms every few days, the kind of winter I remember from being a student here in 1974. So the storage dams, which were down to less than 20% capacity, are now up to 42% and climbing. The changes this metropolitan area of 5 million people made in the past year are remarkable. From usage of around 1.1 billion liters per day they got it down to less than 550 million liters per day through every means imaginable. They came close to DAY ZERO, but not quite, and now are in good shape going forward. For anyone interested, the figure shows the dam levels over the past ten years, and you can see how every year the dams would fill to capacity in the winter, and be drawn down to around 50% each summer. But then the past four years the winter rains never really came through, but look at the bright red 2018 line for the past two months and you see a steep climb. Might not get back to full dams this winter, but probably close.

Cape Town dam levels.jpeg

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ETA s now showing in the app, so should be on the site somewhere too

F0447BA9-B23A-49C1-9757-9066C9B418D3.thumb.jpeg.d8ffe4955f9003cd72baaf22c5239d53.jpeg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Not really, Mad, I caught some of the Springboks beating up on the Lions earlier, but I'm mostly watching World Cup soccer, most games of which are being shown on the local SABC1 over-the-air channel. Otherwise one has to pay through the nose for satellite TV here.

For anyone who cares, the good news here, apart from Zuma and the Guptas being shown the door, is that Cape Town's drought is being broken as I speak. It is bucketing down and has been a proper Cape Town winter for a change with storms every few days, the kind of winter I remember from being a student here in 1974. So the storage dams, which were down to less than 20% capacity, are now up to 42% and climbing. The changes this metropolitan area of 5 million people made in the past year are remarkable. From usage of around 1.1 billion liters per day they got it down to less than 550 million liters per day through every means imaginable. They came close to DAY ZERO, but not quite, and now are in good shape going forward. For anyone interested, the figure shows the dam levels over the past ten years, and you can see how every year the dams would fill to capacity in the winter, and be drawn down to around 50% each summer. But then the past four years the winter rains never really came through, but look at the bright red 2018 line for the past two months and you see a steep climb. Might not get back to full dams this winter, but probably close.

Cape Town dam levels.jpeg

Eng 6 - SA 3 at half-time. Just in case anyone is interested.

apologies for the hijack. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Not really, Mad, I caught some of the Springboks beating up on the Lions earlier, but I'm mostly watching World Cup soccer, most games of which are being shown on the local SABC1 over-the-air channel. Otherwise one has to pay through the nose for satellite TV here.

For anyone who cares, the good news here, apart from Zuma and the Guptas being shown the door, is that Cape Town's drought is being broken as I speak. It is bucketing down and has been a proper Cape Town winter for a change with storms every few days, the kind of winter I remember from being a student here in 1974. So the storage dams, which were down to less than 20% capacity, are now up to 42% and climbing. The changes this metropolitan area of 5 million people made in the past year are remarkable. From usage of around 1.1 billion liters per day they got it down to less than 550 million liters per day through every means imaginable. They came close to DAY ZERO, but not quite, and now are in good shape going forward. For anyone interested, the figure shows the dam levels over the past ten years, and you can see how every year the dams would fill to capacity in the winter, and be drawn down to around 50% each summer. But then the past four years the winter rains never really came through, but look at the bright red 2018 line for the past two months and you see a steep climb. Might not get back to full dams this winter, but probably close.

Cape Town dam levels.jpeg

Thanks for sharing. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some stuff/VNRs from the Aarhus fly-by and more:

22 June, Denmark Aarhus Fly-by
22 June, Aarhus, general shots, Vestas
22 June, Mapfre and Dongfeng Aarhus fly-by
22 June, B-roll & interview in Spanish/Engl, Xabi Fernández, Mapfre
22 June, B-roll & interview, Blair Tuke, Mapfre 
22 June, Dongfeng Aarhus fly-by
22 June, interview in Chinese, Chen Jingo 'Horace', Dongfeng
22 June, Turn the Tide on Plastic Aarhus Fly-by
22 June, B-roll drone, wind farms, IV Mark Towill/Jena Mai Hansen
22 June, interview in Danish/Engl, Jena Mai Hansen, Vestas 11th Hour Racing
22 June, interview in Dutch, Bouwe Bekking, Brunel
22 June, B-roll & interview, Peter Burling, Brunel
22 June, heli: fleet sails off Danish island of Læsø

VNRs from today still to come...

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, mad said:

Eng 6 - SA 3 at half-time. Just in case anyone is interested.

apologies for the hijack. 

Full time score. ENG 25 - SA 10. 

And back to your regular viewing. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's videos added to the playlist above:

23 June, interview in Dutch, Bouwe Bekking, Brunel
23 June, interview in Spanish, Willy Altadill, Mapfre
23 June, B-roll & interview in Spanish, Antonio 'Ñeti' Cuervas-Mons, Mapfre
23 June, B-roll & interview, Kevin Escoffier, Dongfeng
23 June, B-roll & interview in Chinese, Chen Jinhao 'Horace', Dongfeng
23 June, Boatfeed Hightlights

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, the Dutchies have rolled Vestas, but struggling to roll the two red boats, and Akzo showing their North Atlantic pace again. TTOP barely staying in front of Scallywag, hope they can stay there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Routing options: east (= inshore more or less) or west of the TSS’s? If both DFRT and Mapfre stay together, this could be the moment to pick the other side as Akzo or TBRU unless you are sure to grind the red boats down.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, RenBoss said:

Would like to buy you a drink tomorrow Herman, let me know where that can happen.

Good plan, I'll pm you my details so we can meet.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Rennmaus said:

Will be in Scheveningen for the match race on 27. Looking forward to meeting you and finally shanghaisailor. 

I'll have to make a choice soon between the 2 cloggy boats battling or doing a couple of rounds around the cans at Lelystad with our team. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Herman said:

I'll have to make a choice soon between the 2 cloggy boats battling or doing a couple of rounds around the cans at Lelystad with our team. 

I'll stay until the 1st 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow. Live shots of MAPF impressive.

looks like DFRT tempting MAPF to go insid, but MAPF not biting. 4 hrs to commit point?

DFRT flyby coming up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Paintwagon have ignited their special afterburners again, :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, stief said:

Wow. Live shots of MAPF impressive.

looks like DFRT tempting MAPF to go insid, but MAPF not biting. 4 hrs to commit point?

DFRT flyby coming up

Mapfre showing some superiority here, would be a very worthy winner of this race. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MAPFRE looks much better balanced and sustained. Better course too. Don't think DF has it right now on the heading they're at. Even if DF makes some gains, they're going to lose the all when they go opposite to get around the separationschemes . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TBRU is bleeding miles relatively quick (DTL +2 nm), their BS is is the lowest of the top-4 in the past hour and a half although they are in the same wind as AKZO I presume. AKZO has given in 0,5 nm DTL in that time.

When looking at the tracker, I get the idea that the cloggies go west of the TSS's and the red boats possibly inshore and/or keeping their options open.

BS TBRU.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AArgh. Data limit coming up.   iPhone trying hard to hang on to the surfing  Only broached a couple of times, but . . . :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, the Spanish assasins have struck again. They are fast, but Juan Vila and Xabi also seem very, very good at positioning the boat.

Brunel's deficit less than half of what it was 24 hours or so ago. Still, a lot to do for them.

Latest forcast suggests they may not completely run out of breeze between here and the finish. As in, it may drop to about 5 knots overnight, but not completely dissapear. If that is true, Mapfre are in a strong position right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Me thinks cloggers headed for the gut in the TSS zones, VMG starting to pick up. Red boats max VMG but will have to change course eventually. Should be an interesting few hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Elisa said:

Paintwagon have ignited their special afterburners again, :)

Looking dangerous.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m in Hague in a hotel full with VOR crew members, but no one is watching soccer in the bar, damn...

Any secret meeting place for anarchists in Hague?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 Hours Ago

Update from OBR Sam Greenfield onboard Team Brunel: 

We snapped the padeye off the forward pole and had to slow down so that Kyle and Carlo could set up a replacement for about 45 minutes.

Unfortunately it cost us miles, said kyle, about 1.4 on akzo and the rest of the fleet ahead. But now we're back into it.

Current Conditions: 25kts TWS / 20kts BSPD / 98 TWA

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Screenie of gap I assume they're headed for -- before Danish Geo wipe it and stick out their hand for Kroner. What would the arrows be referring to?

image.thumb.png.4dcd20871c78cdcd52c30e69777ac77f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could be that the dutch are out of AIS range for Mapfre and Dong, expect some panic reactions around 01:00 UTC, they should see Vestas move west though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, zoomee said:

And then get passed like he is standing still.

 

Probably need 40knots TWS to pull that piece of magic off again. But still...what a contemplation, eh. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Watching the VOR finish on the last leg into The Hague simultaneously with the first finishers of the R2AK from Victoria, BC to Ketchikan, AK.  A little disorienting watching two races where one set of boats is currently sailing an order of magnitude faster than the the other.   And the budgets are perhaps two orders of magnitude different.  

Very glad both events exist at different ends of the extreme racing spectrum.  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, thengling said:

Screenie of gap I assume they're headed for -- before Danish Geo wipe it and stick out their hand for Kroner. What would the arrows be referring to?

image.thumb.png.4dcd20871c78cdcd52c30e69777ac77f.png

Shipping traffic direction in the VSS - Vessel Separation Scheme

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

Probably need 40knots TWS to pull that piece of magic off again. But still...what a contemplation, eh. ;)

watch them go.. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dongfeng is looking committed to the inshore while Mapfre is heading off to cover (maybe).  Will they let Dongfeng go?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL.

teamAkzoNobel‏Verified account @teamAkzoNobel 3m3 minutes ago

"There must be plenty of stress on the other boats right now, but we are just enjoying ourselves and trying to win the leg"

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SnakeOnAPlane said:

On Mapfre--tfw when you are winning your side and suddenly realize the guys across the course have more breeze than you. In my experience it doesn't end well.

Yep.  Wouldn't want Brunel bearing down on me again.

Or did they just hand it to Dongfeng?

What a bad spot to be in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, thengling said:

Waypoint change on Tracker?

Never mind, my mistake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Yep.  Wouldn't want Brunel bearing down on me again.

Or did they just hand it to Dongfeng?

What a bad spot to be in.

A three boat tie is sooooo much more fun than a two boat tie :D. Xabi reassured in the presser he wouldn’t have such an asswhooping from Brunel again and that they will be faster this time :lol:.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Just wow. Pressure on the decision makers, DF look comitted to the inside?  

I hope they do it :-) keep it interesting!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think Azko or Brunel have come into Mapfre's AIS yet.  That will be a bit of an ass clencher when they do.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, thengling said:

Screenie of gap I assume they're headed for -- before Danish Geo wipe it and stick out their hand for Kroner. What would the arrows be referring to?

image.thumb.png.4dcd20871c78cdcd52c30e69777ac77f.png

Traffic directions. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AkzoNobel makes an impressive pacemaker for Brunel :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why going inside and over Horns Reef, its wave refraction will slow you down a bit, can not understand it...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's one hell of a road block up ahead. 

Screen Shot 2018-06-24 at 8.41.56 AM.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weather routing part I

Was busy for an hour just drawing all the exclusion zones. But hell, they are all in now.

Just run the washing machine with GFS (0,25 degree resolution) + wave (FNMOC) + currents (BSH 6 nm resolution, 1 hr interval) for the 1915 UTC positions with 30 minute time steps. this was before the west - east split started in the fleet. The inshore route was a bit slower. Mapfre to win, but all boats to finish with 45 minutes. So a very very close finish, again.  ETA a lot later than currently broadcasted, +/- 23 UTC or 01 CEST/local time.

All boats take the samen entry point, in the Friesland TSS, so not inshore via the German Bight. See the second screenshot.

I must say I have admiration for the guts of Pascal going inshore. The only boats going for that route atm are TTToP and SHK/SW it seems. It will be utter glory or utter defeat, and only one man to claim both. 

Btw. As soon as the boats are below 56 north I can use the detailed HIRLAM weather model from the KNMI, our Dutch meteorological institute. A whopping 2,5 km x 2,5 km resolution. So a factor 10 more detailed then I have used up to now. To be continued soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

routing detail MAPFRE GFS.jpg

Routing GFS 2115 UTC.jpg

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, 5 -6 hours before they hit the gap, and MAPF have stopped the bleeding. DFRT doing a Hail Mary inside (no other choice, really).

wow.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnakeOnAPlane said:

About 13 mi lateral separation Mapfre-Akzo. When can they see each other on AIS?

Close if not now.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Weather routing part I

Was busy for an hour just drawing all the exclusion zones. But hell, they are all in now.

Just run the washing machine with GFS (0,25 degree resolution) + wave (FNMOC) + currents (BSH 6 nm resolution, 1 hr interval) for the 1915 UTC positions with 30 minute time steps. this was before the west - east split started in the fleet. The inshore route was a bit slower. Mapfre to win, but all boats to finish with 45 minutes. So a very very close finish, again.  ETA a lot later than currently broadcasted, +/- 23 UTC or 01 CEST/local time.

All boats take the samen entry point, in the Friesland TSS, so not inshore via the German Bight. See the second screenshot.

I must say I have admiration for the guts of Pascal going inshore. The only boats going for that route atm are TTToP and SHK/SW it seems. It will be utter glory or utter defeat, and only one man to claim both. 

Btw. As soon as the boats are below 56 north I can use the detailed HIRLAM weather model from the KNMI, our Dutch meteorological institute. A whopping 2,5 km x 2,5 km resolution. So a factor 10 more detailed then I have used up to now. To be continued soon.

So projected 12mnute advantage MAPF over AKZO.?

nice washing machine. Thanks for the run

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

Watching the VOR finish on the last leg into The Hague simultaneously with the first finishers of the R2AK from Victoria, BC to Ketchikan, AK.  A little disorienting watching two races where one set of boats is currently sailing an order of magnitude faster than the the other.   And the budgets are perhaps two orders of magnitude different.  

Very glad both events exist at different ends of the extreme racing spectrum.  

Two orders of magnitude?   I doubt any of the R2AK teams have a $10 million budget .  

:)

But you are right. Two of the most interesting trackers in the sport at the same time is highly entertaining....and at opposite ends of the spectrum 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnakeOnAPlane said:

About 13 mi lateral separation Mapfre-Akzo. When can they see each other on AIS?

Probably within 10 nm or so, depending on the heel of the boats and the waves. On a flat sea and no heel they could probably just see each other.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DF seems committed to the inside passage, Pascal will need nerves of steel as far as I remember it is very narrow at time between the shore and the channel for big boats. I wouldn't like going there doing 15+ knots.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites