Herman

VOR Leg 11 Gothenburg to The Hague

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Is DF heading for an exclusion zone? If they mess up and get a penalty that's going to make things even more interesting.

1626812766_ScreenShot2018-06-23at2_50_00PM.png.b231943acbcb641819f35ec3a43ffa2e.png

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As Akzo just about to take a paper lead changing angle.  They must see Mapfre on AIS.

Never mind.

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2 minutes ago, jbc said:

Is DF heading for an exclusion zone? If they mess up and get a penalty that's going to make things even more interesting.

1626812766_ScreenShot2018-06-23at2_50_00PM.png.b231943acbcb641819f35ec3a43ffa2e.png

image.png.56e01200e7f7cbef123b6e26389c297f.pngno.. they know.

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4 minutes ago, Van Schakel said:

image.png.56e01200e7f7cbef123b6e26389c297f.pngno.. they know.

Whew. :D

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@brunelsailing's Bouwe Bekking says that the east/west call is huge – and admits that it wasn't an easy choice...

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I had a dream about this ending like a race not a que at the supermarket checkout.....and it looks I don't have to delete in shame my cloggies #1 & #2 prediction. Life is good.

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5 hours ago, mad said:

Full time score. ENG 25 - SA 10. 

And back to your regular viewing. :)

Mad does that mean the coach keeps his job??

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9 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Maybe they didn't know.

Screen Shot 2018-06-23 at 3.07.02 PM.png

Yeah, that looks to me like they realized kind of late, started sailing low to clear it, decided that wasn’t good enough and did a quick gybe. With them being committed to the inside route at this point and the only two competitors who can hurt them going outside, a certain amount of conservatism seems called for.

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Does anyone know the distances on the water of the inside & outside routes? Leaving aside the disturbed wind/waves, it looks to me as though inside is further around.

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dongers is sending right now

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Nail-biting, according to windy models DF may have more wind and a better angle at the end, but will they be close enough!?! 

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4 minutes ago, SnakeOnAPlane said:

Does anyone know the distances on the water of the inside & outside routes? Leaving aside the disturbed wind/waves, it looks to me as though inside is further around.

100 nm further inside

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Weather routing part II

Input

- local KNMI Hirlam wind model 2,5 km resolution, 1 hr timesteps;  run 18:00 UTC

- BSH 6 nm resolution, 1 hr timesteps

- no waves, but these are dying out the coming 24 hours due to lesser wind (HP zone at UK).

- 21:45 UTC positions

Output

Brace for impact. Unbelievable. The local HIRLAM model says go inshore. For all boats. DFRT to beat MAPFRE by 12 minutes! If they all would have gone inshore ETA +/- 20 UTC (22 local time). All boats finish within 30 minutes. The onshore router for DFRT is a Dutch guy, Marcel van Triest. If they pull this off hats off for Pascal and Marcel!

 

 

 

leg 11 HIRLAM routing.jpg

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41 minutes ago, southerncross said:

GONZALO INFANTE‏ @Gonzalo_Infante 2m2 minutes ago

I like what @DongfengRacing is doing, as you have more options to play with the tide against expected for the last 30 nm

We were discussing that option this afternoon over beers in sunny Amsterdam, and playing the bigger tides there could be a real advantage.

TTOP and Scally now following Dong as well, and Witt&Libby are known to play the round the outside game well. Going to bed now, but not sure if I can sleep peacefully or will have a nightmare of Dong getting stuck on one of the many sandbanks. Will try to wake up every 2 hours or so, and then lecture my less fanatic mates over breakfast.

 

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2 minutes ago, Kenetic said:

100 nm further inside

wrong

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Mapfre held off Akzo to within .2nm at the closest point.

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1 minute ago, southerncross said:

Mapfre held off Akzo to within .2nm at the closest point.

moving waypoints...

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Distance outside or inside almost the same.

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3 minutes ago, Herman said:

Brace for impact

Thanks Herm. The call that Pascal has lost the plot was a bit premature. That said modeling doesn't pick local peculiarities that you and Leo etc would know well.

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My ERC (extremely rough calculation) using the tracker ruler has it about 30nm more for inshore.. 

Also what just happened to the tracker DTL's they just shuffled quite considerably. Brunel back to 4th, and everyone lost a mile or 2 to Mapfre. 

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7 minutes ago, Herman said:

The onshore router for DFRT is a Dutch guy, Marcel van Triest

Dongfeng is relying on a Dutchie?

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1 minute ago, southerncross said:

Dongfeng is relying on a Dutchie?

Seems that dutchie is a bit "fout na de oorlog" ;-)

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The hardest feature of this race is that neither Mapfre, Brunel or Dongfeng deserve to come third....

and yet one of them will.

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Interlude. More epicness

 

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Not only busted the padeye but lost the forward outrigger and put a hole in the daggerboiard.

 

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10 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Thanks Herm. The call that Pascal has lost the plot was a bit premature. That said modeling doesn't pick local peculiarities that you and Leo etc would know well.

I raced there, but i keep forgetting the difference of a fast 40 fter, with good crew, and those guys. Eating humble pie.
Now all I can say, the inside is more touristically, so I would recommend it. The islands are great.

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11 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Thanks Herm. The call that Pascal has lost the plot was a bit premature. That said modeling doesn't pick local peculiarities that you and Leo etc would know well.

HIRLAM has a higher resolution than the EMCWF, beats it with a factor 9 km / 2.5 km = 3.5. That is a microscopic scale imho when talking about weather models.

Like I posted up-thread, as the weather tomorrow won't be very warm, I do not expect a sea breeze to be created as the land does probably not get heated enough. I'm not sure anyway that that effect is captured in HIRLAM.

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I'm kinda hoping Dongers got reservations at passantenhaven Terschelling for the Oerol festival..

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17 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Dongfeng is relying on a Dutchie?

For some time, yes. Ex-VOR navigator, he is doing the routings for the French super catamarans too.

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Xabi looks to be coming up to line of the two windward cloggs when he can... I'm not sure he can hold Akzo out.

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DF inshore route beginning to not look so bad on distance. 

I presume MPF can take a shorter route to the finish than the Volvo track indicates?

Screenshot_20180623-234732_Gallery.jpg

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18 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Not only busted the padeye but lost the forward outrigger and put a hole in the daggerboiard.

The skills sets of these athletes never ceases to amaze me. Every single crew member on board is a multi-tasking genius. 

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What a mind bending experience for some extremely fatigued brain cells. 

He who makes the least mistakes wins. 

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3 hours ago, southerncross said:

3 Hours Ago

Update from OBR Sam Greenfield onboard Team Brunel: 

We snapped the padeye off the forward pole and had to slow down so that Kyle and Carlo could set up a replacement for about 45 minutes.

Unfortunately it cost us miles, said kyle, about 1.4 on akzo and the rest of the fleet ahead. But now we're back into it.

Current Conditions: 25kts TWS / 20kts BSPD / 98 TWA

Boats, gear and or crew getting tired, or a bit of everything?

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Lateral separation AKZO->MAPF now 8 nm. AIS almost in play, and soon to be in the same wind and course. Nice work by Vila on reducing the leverage. 

Great racing. And the insiders can now leave their fate in the hands of the weather. If it doesn’t work out, it was the weather gods. If it works, Pascal can be credited with supernatural insight. 

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

Inside, and next to waves the windmills effect winds;
Aerial-view-from-the-Southeast-of-wake-c

Great picture, is that real or photoshop?

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real picture. Or realistic enough.

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If you were on MAPFRE, how hard would you push? Would you even care about Akzo? Or just focus on Brunel and hope for the best re DF? Break the boat. Lose the race. 

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1 minute ago, Miffy said:

If you were on MAPFRE, how hard would you push? Would you even care about Akzo? Or just focus on Brunel and hope for the best re DF? Break the boat. Lose the race. 

Or, what if you didn't push hard enough and lost.

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Wow, what a surprise this morning! I can't believe Charles let go of the other 2, ballsy move.

Obviously going to be another less than productive day here. Lots of great posts, have run out of likies.

And Mad the Wallabies went down to the Irish 20-16 in an epic final game of the series. Lots of controversial calls by the Refs.

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8 minutes ago, Miffy said:

If you were on MAPFRE, how hard would you push? Would you even care about Akzo? Or just focus on Brunel and hope for the best re DF? Break the boat. Lose the race

Xabi seems to pretty keen on putting himself between Yellow and the Finish even if it means letting Akzo through.

However the two dutch boats have also got their own thing going on for this run to home. Could be "Tis just a scratch" stuff.

 

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I'm thinking it's pretty hard to push against an abstract DF not knowing how that side is turning out. If you fixate on the unknown break the boat, you'll see Brunel sail away. Focus on what you know and can know - beat Brunel and hope DF made a mistake?

 

Either way I would let Akzo do whatever it wants and see if they can give you a heads up on conditions. 

The convergence between the inside and outside route is about 15 nm wide at closest corner and about 150nm away. 

Anyway. Bed time. Enjoy the race the other side of the globe. 

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Akzo back within .2nm again.  

AIS pain.

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Lead change with Brunel coming in hot.

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I gotta go sleeping, it's probably going to be a short night and a finish to look forward too!

Go Brunel!

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A little whoopsie from Mapfre and Akzo is through.

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1 minute ago, paps49 said:

A little whoopsie from Mapfre and Akzo is through.

Big whoopsie right here Paps when you were still asleep.  Bru and Akzo set up at the top for this.

Screen Shot 2018-06-23 at 4.47.19 PM.png

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Mad does that mean the coach keeps his job??

He’s contracted for the World Cup, it’s expensive and embarrassing to sack him and have no obvious replacement.  A little more time to prove his case maybe? 

Sound familier?

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2 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Big whoopsie right here Paps when you were still asleep.  Bru and Akzo set up at the top for this.

Screen Shot 2018-06-23 at 4.47.19 PM.png

Yes SX, I went through the tracker, a very late decision by Mapfre to leave DF and cover the Pajama kids.

 

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42 minutes ago, LeoV said:

real picture. Or realistic enough.

A realistic wind flow model? I always wondered what the wash looked like from a big array. That’s a bad case, all the other downwind ones are getting it as well. 

Don’t show that layout to a potential buyer!    :P

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23 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Big whoopsie right here Paps when you were still asleep.  Bru and Akzo set up at the top for this.

Screen Shot 2018-06-23 at 4.47.19 PM.png

A most telling snapshot...Xabi had come to the conclusion he could outrun Charles..then left with the desision what about Bouwe when like Charles maybe he too was looking favourably towards the inshore route?

Was Charles decision to go inhore one of he knew he was struggling against Xabi so went for the inshore crapshoot knowing Bouwe was already committed to staying offshore leaving Xabi with the follow either or decision?

That's pull your hair out poker shit and Xabi doesn't have any.

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9 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

That's pull your hair out poker shit and Xabi doesn't have any.

It was.  Mapfre caught in the middle defending both sides.  Very late decision to go West.  A crap shoot.

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You have to think three boats together are producing a few fractions of a percentage gain over a boat on its lonesome over the horizon.

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This bouy racing can be exciting. Looking back at Dong's track gives me the impression that they are sticking to their game plan. Mapfre, on the otherhand, looked more to be just trying to stay ahead, then had a change of heart and went west, which cost them the lead. Brunel, needed separation, went west early and went for the end around. It will be interesting to hear their stories afterwards to find out what really happened. It will be really interesting to see what happens when the wind starts to peter out.

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I really can’t pick who’s shoes I’d rather be in right now. Brunel have a good line but if they can’t get a bit of distance on Mapfre before the looser reaching in lighter air then I think Mapfre will beat them. I could have sworn donger had it horribly wrong going inshore but now i actually think they could pull it off. 

 

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i picked a bad week to quit the .............this is  gonna be  ashtray sniffing   time.........hahahaaaa    if Dong keeps goin' ,i guess it will be  about 48 miles till he can go right and ramp up his vmg again.   i love to see him slide in front on a backeddy......or just less foul tide.   But who's kidding who.....is the inside route really about 30 miles further.....

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1 hour ago, paps49 said:

Wow, what a surprise this morning! I can't believe Charles let go of the other 2, ballsy move.

Obviously going to be another less than productive day here. Lots of great posts, have run out of likies.

And Mad the Wallabies went down to the Irish 20-16 in an epic final game of the series. Lots of controversial calls by the Refs.

Drift. Check out the Frogs against the Blacks, in their first half encounter, yesterday. Awesome. Then it all fell apart for them, sadly.

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Remember when the spiel was that AIS would kill splits in the fleet?  

Remember when people were saying this whole thing should have ended in Gothenburg?

Gotta love this.

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33 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

Remember when people were saying this whole thing should have ended in Gothenburg?

In reality the RTW race bit did finish in Gothenburg.

This leg in effect is now a "podium tie breaker" by default, plus some potential glory for those not on the final podium, an orchestrated finish time to put a final spotlight on the race and luck would have it... is not a bloody procession. 

Great outcome all round and will be hard to beat in the future.

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Mapfre has finally straightened and is now on the same line as the cloggs, just squeezing in front of Yellow by less than a mile. That was a close call.

Now a 3 way drag race over the red rock bouncer.

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DTF in the tracker would seem about 20 miles of for the westerly boats..?    northwestern corner of TSS Ger 1 - The Hague would be about 155 miles..     

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In about 20 minutes the Dong's speed is going to drop but VMG is finally going to rise from sitting around half that of the offshore jockeys....who are now losing breeze...fuck what a balancing act.

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Dong, Plastics and Scally standing on the podium for this leg would be both very cruel and very fitting.

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Incredible.  Down to the wire.

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True dat jack.......quite fitting. love to see Dee on podium.  So ,in  about 20 minutes,6 miles, i guess Dong hardens up.. looks like a lot of shipping  and they smoking along too.  dark  too...... .. Thanks for posting that map Beast.    Hey anyone read the 1940~ book "The Riddle of the Sands"?  Erskine Childer{?}  Great sailing adventure story set in ww11 ,espionage,spys,and a chick  the later movie was good too....it was set all around these Frisian Islands

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Imagining the level of pain and physical and mental exhaustion on these boats while watching highlights of these soccer players flop and writhe in agony. 

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15 minutes ago, willsilvaa said:

adventure story set in ww11,espionage, spys, and a chick....

The 3 vital ingrediants of many great films. For instance this one made in 1945 and the first of a trilogy.

 

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24 minutes ago, willsilvaa said:

True dat jack.......quite fitting. love to see Dee on podium.  So ,in  about 20 minutes,6 miles, i guess Dong hardens up.. looks like a lot of shipping  and they smoking along too.  dark  too...... .. Thanks for posting that map Beast.    Hey anyone read the 1940~ book "The Riddle of the Sands"?  Erskine Childer{?}  Great sailing adventure story set in ww11 ,espionage,spys,and a chick  the later movie was good too....it was set all around these Frisian Islands

Riddle of the Sands, by Childers - 1903!  (correction of my tossing out John Buchan who wrote 39 Steps).  One of the first spy novels ever written.  Good sailing adventure novel too.  Sitting on my bookshelf.  Good read and DF, TTOP and Scally are sailing right by.

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DF has just turned the corner. 14 knt VMC where Mapfre is still doing 17.7 VMC, and 33 miles behind... Argh!

Merdemerdemerde....

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9 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Imagining the level of pain and physical and mental exhaustion on these boats while watching highlights of these soccer players flop and writhe in agony. 

Association Football training and drama school acting classes are in the same building just different front doors.  

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9 minutes ago, Laurent said:

DF has just turned the corner. 14 knt VMC where Mapfre is still doing 17.7 VMC, and 33 miles behind... Argh!

Merdemerdemerde....

Take a chill pill, be patient and wait for the next Dong corner and then the offshore jockeys final corner approach..you will feel a lot better.

One group are on the "highway to hell", no one knows which one it is yet, including them.

 

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12 minutes ago, Laurent said:

DF has just turned the corner. 14 knt VMC where Mapfre is still doing 17.7 VMC, and 33 miles behind... Argh!

Merdemerdemerde....

Mapfre has to sail 40+ miles back to The Hague from the south west corner of TSS GER 1  , forget VMG  just boatspeed and COG as all waypoints can be layed.

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Mapfre still has to come up 1.3 miles or something.. or are the dutch going to maintain leverage..

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Daylight and Brunel off the Starboard beam.

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Brunel have given themselves every chance of passing Mapfre but easier said than done..!

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Much as I'm not a great fan of Ivy League Pants & Excuses Charlie, they have done a great job of not falling off the back on this board.

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2 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Brunel have given themselves every chance of passing Mapfre but easier said than done..!

i'ld say Brunel is already .1 mile ahead as the crow flies to the north western corner of TSS GER 1

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