Herman

VOR Leg 11 Gothenburg to The Hague

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I'm not a believer in the inside loop because of the upwind leg -  but if it is to work, it'll be after they pass Texel before you start seeing gains. The outside boats could find extreme light pressure and be stuck just outside trying to get back in. I'm groggy from too much sad alcohol for Sweden, but we'll know in about 8 hrs. The problem is really sea state + limitation of upwind.

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4 minutes ago, FinnFish said:

They keep bleeding.

it's hard to believe that at this point if they aren't gaining miles now, they can make up that difference. would be nice to see routing right about now.

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

The Dong are spending to long on this board ....it will be lights out soon if they don't get a wriggle on.

Dee will be right up them soonish...

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The tracker is underestimating the DTF for the west route by about 30nm. Maybe more. It still may come down to who drifts in fastest.

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10 minutes ago, Miffy said:

 I'm groggy from too much sad alcohol for Sweden...

So is my family...

Hope DF didn't cross into the exclusion zone. If I recall they were penalized for doing so during the last edition. 

Edited by despacio avenue
spelling

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Just now, despacio avenue said:

So is my family...

Hope DF didn't cross into the exclusion zone. If I recall they were penalized for doing so during the last edition. 

We were hoping Mexico would ease up for the next game to help eliminate Germany - but realized the game will be at the same time as Germany Korea. :(

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2 minutes ago, despacio avenue said:

So is my family...

Hope DF didn't cross into the exclusion zone. If I recall they were penalize for doing so during the last edition. 

no way they did. tracker error for sure.

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I'm curious why the east group is hugging the TSS upwind instead of looking for a better angle?

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Sandbanks and sea state is worse the closer you are to shore. There's an inshore traffic zone about 2-3nm wide with lighted beacons just south of the TSS, they're following the lights.

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3 minutes ago, foubarre said:

I'm curious why the east group is hugging the TSS upwind instead of looking for a better angle?

Maybe current?

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This is hell on the nerves. 

For the record. Brunel is going to cut in the gap between those last two exclusion zones in order to control the space between Mapfre and the mark. They just better hope their giving game is on point 

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FUCK THIS IS INTENSE.

dong aren't 30nm behind, a few miles at most check the routing picture I posted earlier.

Let's go Yellow sub !!!! Im in a delerious disbelief that they have clawed their way back again ! I honestly thought it was game over 18hours ago. 

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Talk about nerves, my Beavers were up 5-2 with one out left and nobody on base.  Star pitcher walks 2, hits one, bases loaded 2 out, takes the count to 3-2, hitter grounds out to finish the game.  Kid who grounded out had already hit a grand slam in this series.  Nobody hits two.  Beavers win 5-2.  Oregon State vs Arkansas for College World Series, best out of 3 games.  Wahoo!!

Now if Bouwe can pull this off.  Go BR.

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1 hour ago, paps49 said:

The other issue that was mentioned earlier is that DF hasn't been able to shake off the 2 slowest boats in the fleet, in fact the have gained 2 miles on her. Meanwhile the three to the west are dukeing it out like there's no tomorrow.

Or the other way of saying this is that the two slowest boats in the fleet have learned so much that they can now compete with the fastest boat RTW.

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6 minutes ago, sfigone said:

Or the other way of saying this is that the two slowest boats in the fleet have learned so much that they can now compete

Very well put...that also might calm poor Shang down a notch too.

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BRU to pass the Purple Haze shortly, PB and KL on-board a definate advantage if it turns into a knife fight.

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33 minutes ago, foubarre said:

I'm curious why the east group is hugging the TSS upwind instead of looking for a better angle?

Staying to windward of the windpark, also the current is going out  basically get offshore above the western half of each island get inshore above the eastern side..  that is if they have the guts to aproach the 10 m draft line or even cross it.. to play the eddies. Where they are at they could see up to 2.5 kts of favorite current.

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26 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Go Cloggies

Kenny rest easy..their respective two Rear Vision Mirrors are made in the Netherlands...though they might have to roll up to Court tomorrow for running over some poor Spanish chap.

assembly-1500914_960_720.jpg

images (21).jpeg

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Thanks Jack, and rest easy I shall.  Looking forward to watching finish tomorrow for breakfast.

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Kenny that just means Teapot's mirror is working...on the other hand Bouwe is wanting the body in his mirror to just turn into a pavement red spot...which it is not keen on doing.

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Just clicked past 6:00 UTC, so I assume the boats will be just getting the latest positions. Pascal might be getting a feeling of deja-vu. 

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1 minute ago, Francis Vaughan said:

Just clicked past 6:00 UTC, so I assume the boats will be just getting the latest positions. Pascal might be getting a feeling of deja-vu. 

Sadly, yes, I agree. I now not sure how this happened. 

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Wow, Two dutch boats in front ! Well done ! Go Bouwe !

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Go BRUNEL.

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8 minutes ago, despacio avenue said:

Sadly, yes, I agree. I now not sure how this happened. 

It could have been the winning move. 

It isn't over, and there are a few potholes ahead. 

Smart money might be back on Bouwe, but you wouldn't be amiss putting a small bet on the dong.

It is going to be nail biting.

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Is there an estimated ETA for the finish? It's late, but I find myself unable to tear myself away from the tracker...

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could you imagine the responce right now when Pascal is replying to the ondeck crew as to where the western fleet is...." they have crossed our bow 100miles in front doing 17 - 19kts average....dont worry boys we're still in this!!! "

 

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The DTL doesn't take into account the zones. A quick tracker ruler calculation has them 10nm behind but there is potentially more twists with the lighter breeze.

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7 minutes ago, Beast Mode Killa said:

Donger is still in this. They have potentially more breeze for longer. 

 

4 minutes ago, Francis Vaughan said:

It could have been the winning move. 

It isn't over, and there are a few potholes ahead. 

Smart money might be back of Bouwe, but you wouldn't be amiss putting a small bet on the dong.

It is going to be nail biting.

Thanks. It's been 5 years following DF. The team seems like family. Never thought I would get like this for a team or event I have never seen in person. It's wrecked my sleep habits and social life esp since the tracker went live! 

Edited by despacio avenue
word missing
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4 minutes ago, mordax said:

Is there an estimated ETA for the finish? It's late, but I find myself unable to tear myself away from the tracker...

6-8 am your time. 

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Just caught up with all the action. Given that the "Oranje" are not in the World Cup, and given the Spanish beat them in the 2010 WC Final, maybe revenge on the Spainiards is a just result with both Dutchies beating Mapfre to The Hague. Now that'd be a celebration to be a part of tonight. Go the cloggies.

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3 minutes ago, mordax said:

Thanks. Alarm set.

Weenie. Be like some of us and pull a(other) all nighter. The tracker is addictive and the comments in this thread are great.

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2 hours ago, southerncross said:

The decision.

 

When Vila is interviewed post race I would not be surprised to hear this "late decision" by his was in fact a "sucker move" that forced Pascal to go the inshore route thinking that was where Vila also wanted to go, but then when Vila suddenly  bailed right it left Pascal stranded to the east where he couldn't pull out and join Brunel and Mapfre's outside line. 

The ones that picked the right line were Salter and Capey and now enjoying the fruits of their decision. The Red boats were thinking they were the "pre-ordained" and reinforced by the 3 country GoKart circular track outcome and under rating Yellow....they both could well pay the price for playing with each other for too long.

Vila woke up first to that, Pascal didn't.

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This is phenomenal. Not convinced the inshore boats are done with yet. They are bleeding miles now though they will power to the finish. 

Go Brunel!

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5 hours ago, willsilvaa said:

is the inside route really about 30 miles further.....

Not according to to the Race Experts, only 2 nm delta.

 

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Can someone put up a current weather forecast for the area??

Both Windy models are at the end of their usefulness.

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Port Starboard incident at the final mark, the entire race to be decided in the room after both boats refuse to do turns

 

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1 hour ago, bigrpowr said:

would be nice to see routing right about now.

My thoughts too. I'll get coffee first, my wife just told me that she thought that I did not go to bed last night :D

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It would have to go awfully light outside for DF to have any chance at all

Sorry Despacio, I think your boys are done.

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10 minutes ago, Rushman said:

Port Starboard incident at the final mark, the entire race to be decided in the room after both boats refuse to do turns

 

Decided by who gets first thrown out of the bar pissed..Capey by a country mile.

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Things looking grim for Dongfeng this morning. Though it seems that the DTF's in the table are not taking the exclusion zones into account. According to so rough measuring with the tracker ruler, the actual deficit seems more like 5-10 miles than 46. For Dongfeng, it will come down to how much the breeze drops for the boats further offshore and how much the breeze stays near shore. From around 13:00 - 14:00 you can expect some significant sea breeze along that coast if it is a light breeze day. Things look bad, but Df has a chance for glory still.

Mapfre - Brunel is going to be pretty epic. We will see who is best in lighter conditions.

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Set my alarm at 2.45 am and woke to find Brunel in the lead. OMG.....what a race........can it get any more exciting than this.?  

Brunel supporter but all three are heroes in my book

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GFS has updated, nothing there for Dong fans I'm afraid.

hague.JPG

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Forecast;
https://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/maritiem/coastal-waters

Forecast valid from 06:00 to 18:00 UTC:

IJmuiden
northwest 3-4, visibility good

Texel
northwest 4, in the northern part 5,risk light rain or drizzle, visibility good, in precipitation possibly moderate, decreasing moderate to good

Rottum
northwest 4-5,occasionally light rain or drizzle, visibility good, in precipitation possibly moderate, decreasing moderate to good

Delfzijl
northwest 4-5,occasionally light rain or drizzle, visibility good, in precipitation possibly moderate

Forecast valid from 18:00 to 06:00 UTC:

IJmuiden
north to northwest 3-4, later decreasing 2-3, visibility good, decreasing moderate to good

 

Texel
north to northwest 4, later decreasing 3-4,especially first risk occasionally light rain or drizzle, visibility moderate to good

Rottum
northwest 4-5,especially first occasionally light rain or drizzle, visibility moderate to good

Delfzijl
northwest 4-5, decreasing 3-4,especially first occasionally light rain or drizzle, visibility good, in precipitation possibly moderate

districten.gif

 

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47 minutes ago, Beast Mode Killa said:

The DTL doesn't take into account the zones. A quick tracker ruler calculation has them 10nm behind but there is potentially more twists with the lighter breeze.

All doesn't seem quite right, Dee is slowly chipping into DF.

I wonder how Mr Shouty is taking this....

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32 minutes ago, Swanno said:

This is phenomenal. Not convinced the inshore boats are done with yet...

3+ hours at least before they hit the corner and can match the "go around outside cowgirls" for boat speed..my guess is the Dong are already fucked unless there is some god like intervention up ahead.

This is now just a Yellow and 1x Red race for the top prize.

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And it's a bit less than 60nm until the outside cowgirls hit their corner. Think it's all over for DFRT and Brunel in the boxseat for the overall.

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22 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

Set my alarm at 2.45 am and woke to find Brunel in the lead. OMG.

Lead OA...Mambo you are just another non-believer.

Elisa is warming up, though I think she may be a tad premature.03-Kate_Sent-008.thumb.jpg.bcb23750e986642d9869e5c6fc770be5.jpg

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1 minute ago, albanyguy said:

And it's a bit less than 60nm until the outside cowgirls hit their corner. Think it's all over for DFRT and Brunel in the boxseat for the overall.

hope you're right . I just hope Brunel don't get suckered into a duel with the purple boat and mapfe slide on by... Tienpont should lstay out of the way of these two and let them duke it out'

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Been obsessively following this forum for the last eight or so months. Thank you all for your insight, it has been most entertaining. Oh and go Brunel!

Obligatory first post pic attached.

image1.jpeg

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What a race! What a leg! You can’t dream of an any more exciting finish. Mapfre and Brunel once again battling it out in close matching racing.... and there is the Donger coming from the inside... I’m travelling but hope to be home soon to see this through and see who lifts the cup in packed  Scheveningen. 

Love you all for great posts, updates and insights :)

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Just now, Sin Nic said:

Been obsessively following this forum for the last eight or so months. Thank you all for your insight, it has been most entertaining. Oh and go Brunel!

Obligatory first post pic attached.

image1.jpeg

first post eh? wheres the tits?

 

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Okay lets assume for a minute a Brunel v Mapfre finish in flukey light airs. I can see this coming down to an unthinkable situation.

Mapfre win by 15 seconds.

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1 minute ago, Giddy Up said:

first post eh? wheres the tits?

 

Can't spell eh?

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2 minutes ago, Giddy Up said:

Tienpont should lstay out of the way of these two and let them duke it out'

Have you ever been in a race?? like even to get the last beer out of the fridge??

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1 minute ago, Giddy Up said:

first post eh? wheres the tits?

 

Well over 100 in that photo. What's the problem? :D

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3 minutes ago, Sea Breeze 74 said:

Okay lets assume for a minute a Brunel v Mapfre finish in flukey light airs. I can see this coming down to an unthinkable situation.

Mapfre win by 15 seconds.

Newport all over again :wacko: .

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Will the western boats go to the north or south of the last exclsion zone just west of Hague?  Is the choice obvious or is there one last opportunity for a split?

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I think Brunel would be more than happy to have Akzo as a sparing partner right now.

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Thanks for that local forecast, Leo.  In the latest  0700 sked, innermost boats are measured DTF through waypoint “West Texel” which doesn’t look to have much wind in the forecast you posted.

western 4 boats are measured through waypoint “NAM22”. Anyone  know which forecast region applies?

Leaders know too well the peril  MAPF poses. Love waking up and seeing MAPF once again rising back from the dead. 

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9 minutes ago, Sea Breeze 74 said:

Mapfre win by 15 seconds

Sea you should keep that timing stuff between you and the missus a secret :-)

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7 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Have you ever been in a race?? like even to get the last beer out of the fridge??

more than you'll ever know mate...as I said. I hope the Brunel don't get suckered into anything with Azko and just concentrate on beating Mapfre...if you zoom in on their tracks you will see Bunel went low hooks to soak under the purple boat and Tienpont  went bow down to block them...Mapfre at the same time sailed higher for seperatioin. hence my point

 

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I think this was the bit Jack was referring to....

 

 

"Tienpont should lstay out of the way of these two and let them duke it out"

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Ok guys, of to the races! Will try to post some impressions today. (Insert horsesounds here)

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2 minutes ago, paps49 said:

I think this was the bit Jack was referring to....

 

 

"Tienpont should lstay out of the way of these two and let them duke it out"

that was me...now jack you were saying?

 

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10 minutes ago, paps49 said:

I think Brunel would be more than happy to have Akzo as a sparing partner right now.

Now???...try last 3 legs..dial up the clog power.

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3 minutes ago, Giddy Up said:

that was me...now jack you were saying?

 

You are a late arrival and should try listening first before opening your very large mouth, otherwise in this bar you end up unconcious under the cigarette machine is my tip.

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Am I stoned or have they played with the finish?

I am certain the Western lay line originally went outside those last 2 zones?

Is the inshore mark a new addition?

 

finish.JPG

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Nope, they inshore mark was known before the start.

Can not find the damn Nam22 bouy...

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15 minutes ago, paps49 said:

I think Brunel would be more than happy to have Akzo as a sparing partner right now.

It is the perfect partner, with local knowledge and their amazing speed. I hope they win the leg :).

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Carpetbaggers. No capital, but jump in and try to capitalize.

Anyone know about NAM22

btw, App now has ETA for all boats as 24 June 1500-1800

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You are a late arrival and should try listening first before opening your very large mouth.

Seriously???? 

Sounds like you have the problem here not me.

 

I simply stated that I don't want to see Brunel get into a tussle with Azko and let Mapfre slide on by.

you come in with guns blazing.

Now if you look at the tracker instead of insulting you will see that this is starting play out. Azko is a road block for Brunel and Mapfre is now only 0.6 behind them.

 

Back to the race Rant over.

 

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