DryArmour

CHI-MAC Race Wx

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The weather over the midwest has been anything but typical this year. Late season snow, horrendous floods, and other weather related anomalies. What will the CHI-MAC race and HURON-MAC race bring?  It is too early to tell but the start of the race is not that far off and it is time to start watching trends if you are responsible for navigation/routing.

For those teams that still haven't gotten it together and ordered team shirts/shorts/hats etc. It is not too late. Stop by and have a look at very affordable options:  TEAM GEAR AT UP TO 60% OFF. We'll even design your logo for FREE.

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Well, you're a little late for the Solo Chicago Mac & Solo Port Huron Mac that started on 6/23/2018.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Glenn McCarthy said:

Well, you're a little late for the Solo Chicago Mac & Solo Port Huron Mac that started on 6/23/2018.

 

 

Sorry about that, had a full plate this weekend with Long Beach Race Week. (No complaints)

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Oh wait, you were probably talking about the other Mac with thousands of participants, not tens of participants (and potential customers)! :lol:

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2 hours ago, DryArmour said:

The weather over the midwest has been anything but typical this year. Late season snow, horrendous floods, and other weather related anomalies. What will the CHI-MAC race and HURON-MAC race bring?  It is too early to tell but the start of the race is not that far off and it is time to start watching trends if you are responsible for navigation/routing.

For those teams that still haven't gotten it together and ordered team shirts/shorts/hats etc. It is not too late. Stop by and have a look at very affordable options:  TEAM GEAR AT UP TO 60% OFF. We'll even design your logo for FREE.

This far out talking about Mac weather?! Sounds more like Self Promotion thread for whatever "Dry Armour" is...  Is that a play on Underarmour?

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1 minute ago, stayoutofthemiddle said:

This far out talking about Mac weather?! Sounds more like  Is a Self Promotion thread for whatever "Dry Armour" is...  Is that a play on Underarmour?

 I skimmed it so I missed the 60% off bit at the bottom. So yes, this is an advisement disguised as sailing chatter. Start the topic (way too) early, reply to every post, and promote your widget. Now back to our regular programming....

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Dry Armor has been a sponsor and advertiser on SA Since the start. He is a good man with goods to sell who fully supports SA.  SOTM are you new here?  

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32 minutes ago, stayoutofthemiddle said:

 I skimmed it so I missed the 60% off bit at the bottom. So yes, this is an advisement disguised as sailing chatter. Start the topic (way too) early, reply to every post, and promote your widget. Now back to our regular programming....

You're new around here, aren't you?

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Being annoyed at Mark for blatant whoring isn't some rare event.

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40 minutes ago, Grinder said:

Dry Armor has been a sponsor and advertiser on SA Since the start. He is a good man with goods to sell who fully supports SA.  SOTM are you new here?  

Not that new, so I suspect that speaks to the effectiveness of the advertising strategy.

But as they say, any publicity is good publicity so this thread is helping the cause...

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Hello Mark:

 

Since the HURON-MAC race is a week before the CHI-MAC I have a question about the former race.

 

The local newspapers are publishing stories that the Great Lakes are dangerously cold.  The NOAA weather buoy #45003 off Alpena says the water temp today is 39.7 degrees and the air temp is 44.6 degrees.

 

For boats on the Shore Course I assume the significant difference between land and water temps may create a nice seabreeze after sunrise or a land breeze after sunset.  How far offshore do you have to be to take best advantage of a seabreeze/landbreeze ?

NOAA 45033 June 26.JPG

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1 hour ago, Morgan Crewed said:

Hello Mark:

 

Since the HURON-MAC race is a week before the CHI-MAC I have a question about the former race.

 

The local newspapers are publishing stories that the Great Lakes are dangerously cold.  The NOAA weather buoy #45003 off Alpena says the water temp today is 39.7 degrees and the air temp is 44.6 degrees.

 

For boats on the Shore Course I assume the significant difference between land and water temps may create a nice seabreeze after sunrise or a land breeze after sunset.  How far offshore do you have to be to take best advantage of a seabreeze/landbreeze ?

NOAA 45033 June 26.JPG

This is a legitimate weather question. Is Mark a weather man or just selling t-shirts? Now I'm really confused...

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If you really aren't that new, you should know that the answer is both

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11 minutes ago, rmdanko said:

If you really aren't that new, you should know that the answer is both

I must be new then or just have better things to do then researching SA member's LinkedIn Bios...

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3 minutes ago, stayoutofthemiddle said:

I must be new then or just have better things to do then researching SA member's LinkedIn Bios...

No need, it’s very common knowledge. 

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But the colder it gets the more gear you need!   Yup, the lake is cold.   Take an extra mid layer.

 

So long as weather commentary exceeds promotion the thread is useful.  

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20 hours ago, Morgan Crewed said:

Hello Mark:

 

Since the HURON-MAC race is a week before the CHI-MAC I have a question about the former race.

 

The local newspapers are publishing stories that the Great Lakes are dangerously cold.  The NOAA weather buoy #45003 off Alpena says the water temp today is 39.7 degrees and the air temp is 44.6 degrees.

 

For boats on the Shore Course I assume the significant difference between land and water temps may create a nice seabreeze after sunrise or a land breeze after sunset.  How far offshore do you have to be to take best advantage of a seabreeze/landbreeze ?

NOAA 45033 June 26.JPG

It is indeed a fair bit colder on Lake Huron this year but I do see in the latest five day trend analysis that the lake is beginning to warm albeit somewhat behind schedule for a typical year. The answer to your question though depends on where you are on the lake from a latitude standpoint and also with regard to water depth. The shallower bays and areas where subsurface terrain are not deep will warm sooner between now and the race making for less of an ocean breeze during the day as the thermal gradient is not as steep.  Take a look at the map in the link below and I would stay within 10 miles of the shore when possible to take best advantage of the diurnal pattern particularly in the colder portions of the lake.

The land/seabreeze effect is of course overwhelmed by frontal passages as they come through. As I pointed out in the start of the thread, it has been pretty volatile this year in that part of the country and if the frontal systems remain potent, I would let them be the determining factor. Fingers crossed that the high pressure dome doesn't set up and squash an otherwise fun race. Please drop me a note with any questions.

hswt.gif

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Great analysis.  I've noticed a pretty strong effect recently on the Michigan side.  Especially with the psychotic weather with 40 degree temperature swings. 

When it swings up, and its going to be a sunny hot one, you may not want to be near shore if the predominant breeze will be offshore and opposing the sea breeze.  If there is little or no predominant breeze or its from the East (for you on Huron), different story.

My $.02.

 

 

 

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Mark:  Yes, great analysis and of course we will watch for the prevailing winds that would overwhelm any land/seabreeze.

Passport:  Appreciate your advice too - helpful.

 

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I just returned from the Huron Challenge Doublehanded and I can assure you it is Brrrrr cold up there with a capital B.

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15 hours ago, Keysrock35 said:

I just returned from the Huron Challenge Doublehanded and I can assure you it is Brrrrr cold up there with a capital B.

I am curious if the much cooler waters had a dowsing effect on the thunderstorm activity as it moved over the lake and a theoretically more stable air mass. Please reply when time allows. Thank you.

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15 hours ago, Keysrock35 said:

I just returned from the Huron Challenge Doublehanded and I can assure you it is Brrrrr cold up there with a capital B.

Glad I'm sitting the ChiMac out this year! Sitting on the rail for two nights in the cold doesn't sound fun (ever). Weather has been bad enough this summer in Chicago without seeking out worse conditions. I've got nothing to prove and don't have fantasies of recreating the Whitbread.

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3 hours ago, DryArmour said:

I am curious if the much cooler waters had a dowsing effect on the thunderstorm activity as it moved over the lake and a theoretically more stable air mass. Please reply when time allows. Thank you.

We were warned of t-storms, but got nothing but cold rain. So they must have dissipated when hitting the coast. We got moderate wind shifts that occurred over minutes to an hour vs sudden.

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Looks like surface temps near-shore will be hitting the 70's in a week, and probably keep going up reaching mid/upper 70's if this string of 85+ air temps holds for a couple weeks. If that's the case, with the race being 3 weeks out, I predict "normal" mid-summer surface temps

LM Surface Temps

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1 hour ago, JoeO said:

Looks like surface temps near-shore will be hitting the 70's in a week, and probably keep going up reaching mid/upper 70's if this string of 85+ air temps holds for a couple weeks. If that's the case, with the race being 3 weeks out, I predict "normal" mid-summer surface temps

LM Surface Temps

I hope you are right man.

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Just got back yesterday from trip from Chicag to Port Huron. Water temps f.rom 58 to 50 degrees. No bad lweather but thick fog from thunder bay to port sanilact. Time to get AiS , we did and it hepejd a lot

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1 hour ago, doghouse said:

I hope you are right man.

Well, I'm not doing the race ("retired" after doing my 25), so my interest is purely academic! ;-)

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A little feedback from today's frontal passage across Lake Michigan please. I was able to get back in front of my computer about an hour after the front pushed back onshore on the East side of the lake.  Was it a fireworks show all day or did the cooler lake water flatten out the convection a bit. Please let me know.  The real time lightning map below is about an hour after the front came in over the land and I suspect enhanced the convection. Please let me know what you saw today if you were on the lake.

 

Lake Michigan lightning 07012018.jpg

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31 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

A little feedback from today's frontal passage across Lake Michigan please. I was able to get back in front of my computer about an hour after the front pushed back onshore on the East side of the lake.  Was it a fireworks show all day or did the cooler lake water flatten out the convection a bit. Please let me know.  The real time lightning map below is about an hour after the front came in over the land and I suspect enhanced the convection. Please let me know what you saw today if you were on the lake.

 

Lake Michigan lightning 07012018.jpg

From my vantage at the Mustang on the island, the north end petered out...

Of note the locals I’m sitting with have found the persistent easterlies over the last few weeks quite the anomaly.

And the Solo Mac dealt with northerlies up the lake then some angry east stuff down the strait.

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, DryArmour said:

A little feedback from today's frontal passage across Lake Michigan please. I was able to get back in front of my computer about an hour after the front pushed back onshore on the East side of the lake.  Was it a fireworks show all day or did the cooler lake water flatten out the convection a bit. Please let me know.  The real time lightning map below is about an hour after the front came in over the land and I suspect enhanced the convection. Please let me know what you saw today if you were on the lake.

 

Lake Michigan lightning 07012018.jpg

In Holland the wind continued at S and increased for about an hour from 10 knots to about 20 knots before the storm.  Stayed warm on the shore.  Wind stayed at S and blew up to 25 knots as the storm front passed over.  After the clouds passed we could hear more thunder inland.  The wind dropped to near zero after the front passed.  

The temps were 90+ prior to front and dropped to low 80's with lower humidity.

Observation from South Haven was the gust front and rain were substantially higher, 40 MPH wind estimated, I did not check the bouy. 45168

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14 hours ago, From the Helm said:

In Holland the wind continued at S and increased for about an hour from 10 knots to about 20 knots before the storm.  Stayed warm on the shore.  Wind stayed at S and blew up to 25 knots as the storm front passed over.  After the clouds passed we could hear more thunder inland.  The wind dropped to near zero after the front passed.  

The temps were 90+ prior to front and dropped to low 80's with lower humidity.

Observation from South Haven was the gust front and rain were substantially higher, 40 MPH wind estimated, I did not check the bouy. 45168

Thank you so much for that great recap. EXACTLY* what I was looking for. Have a great 4th of July.

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On 7/1/2018 at 7:45 PM, DryArmour said:

A little feedback from today's frontal passage across Lake Michigan please. I was able to get back in front of my computer about an hour after the front pushed back onshore on the East side of the lake.  Was it a fireworks show all day or did the cooler lake water flatten out the convection a bit. Please let me know.  The real time lightning map below is about an hour after the front came in over the land and I suspect enhanced the convection. Please let me know what you saw today if you were on the lake.

 

Lake Michigan lightning 07012018.jpg

When it passed over Sheboygan it was minimal lighting but 3 minutes of extreme rain and VERY high wind, as in about one big tree down per block. The violence of the storm made me think tornado at first. 

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Looks like surface temps this year are more-or-less similar to last few years, started off the year similar to 2103, but now more like 2016.

Surface Temp comparison

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2018 Chicago Mac weather prediction after doing 41 Macs: There will be weather, or not.

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'89 rears it's ugly head again.

 

That should put the fear of God in everyone that was there.  20nm on Sunday, swam twice, and won our class.

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10 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

'89 rears it's ugly head again.

I think '89 reared its ugly head in 2009 and in 2013. Once ('89) was bad enough!

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6 minutes ago, JoeO said:

I think '89 reared its ugly head in 2009 and in 2013. Once ('89) was bad enough!

What's funny is that in '89 Monday night turned out to be one of my most memorable nights of sailing.  8+ knots spinnaker reaching through the tous.  Seriously, the conversation I had with the owner that night was the best ever.  It remains one of my favorite Macs (out of 50+).  We've met.  Best of luck to all racing this year.  Be safe.

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From "dangerously cold" to well above average: 

avgtemps-h_1992-2017.gif

avgtemps-m_1992-2017.gif

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23 hours ago, JoeO said:

I think '89 reared its ugly head in 2009 and in 2013. Once ('89) was bad enough!

 

I have picture of smoke going dead ass vertical from the grill from '13. I somehow managed to be involved with the 09 race too.

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On 7/6/2018 at 2:17 PM, doghouse said:

 

I have picture of smoke going dead ass vertical from the grill from '13. I somehow managed to be involved with the 09 race too.

Can’t see the smoke, but this was the moment you were describing. At least the dogs were good. 

121FFACE-C727-4ED0-A745-6E02C1F23B2C.jpeg

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8 hours ago, Shorthanded said:

Can’t see the smoke, but this was the moment you were describing. At least the dogs were good. 

121FFACE-C727-4ED0-A745-6E02C1F23B2C.jpeg

The leftover steak was better.

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On 7/8/2018 at 6:56 AM, doghouse said:

The leftover steak was better.

mmmm... Steak...

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As per usual, the GFS and the ECMWF are in disagreement for the weather on lake Michigan next weekend. I will wait until the NAM chimes in to see if there is a better consensus. More later as the tea leaves arrange.

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Funny you say that because I too have been watching those 2 and the  PWG/PWE for a while now and they are rarely in agreement.  

I think some can be attributed to the lack of micro-climate consideration e.g. sea breeze.  However, with the lake warming I've noticed that effect diminishing so the forecast disagreements must also be larger scale differences in the algorithms.

 

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If the forecast models are correct, those of you that like to climb the mountain will be happy.

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29 minutes ago, hmsmweasel said:

Which side of the lake do you like DA?

This morning? The East side but that will change 5X between now and reality on Saturday.

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kinda off topic but for anyone struggling to find SOLAS flares to meet the regs the market is dry BUT Crowley’s has 38 of em left.   Saved my butt.

Crowleys rules.

 

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2 hours ago, 1sailor said:

kinda off topic but for anyone struggling to find SOLAS flares to meet the regs the market is dry BUT Crowley’s has 38 of em left.   Saved my butt.

Crowleys rules.

 

Crowleys knows how to make money.

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Better hope this Pressure Map situation changes by Saturday! This is the Wednesday outlook. That big "H" in the sky is going to make Chi Mac worst than the current Port Huron one!

WX.png

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56 minutes ago, stayoutofthemiddle said:

Better hope this Pressure Map situation changes by Saturday! This is the Wednesday outlook. That big "H" in the sky is going to make Chi Mac worst than the current Port Huron one! 

WX.png

Sailflow has us on the backside of those lows by mid-Saturday with 25-30 on the nose.

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3 hours ago, stayoutofthemiddle said:

Better hope this Pressure Map situation changes by Saturday! This is the Wednesday outlook. That big "H" in the sky is going to make Chi Mac worst than the current Port Huron one!

WX.png

Everyone chill. It is Monday.

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6 hours ago, ropetrick said:

Crowleys knows how to make money.

Well maybe but the things were like $13 bucks a throw, and may be th difference between some of us getting to race vs. not.     I'm getting inspected on Friday-- they already sent out t list of most common shortcomings....   so I'm grateful to have found them...

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4 hours ago, DryArmour said:

Everyone chill. It is Monday.

(Dont get mad Dry...just idle conversation...)

Would say that NCEP's products are beginning to show way different conditions by the weekend...

image.png.dba84056c3073fba34f5f702ca78a5bd.png

 

image.png.1562cf31693d0576313a3d094cdd9ed1.png

BTW, picked those off of Mark Thornton's most excellent site:

https://www.lakeeriewx.com/Racing/RaceToMackinac/CYCMacResources.html

Will be interesting to see what the SPC Day 3 Outlook shows in a couple days...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, 1sailor said:

Well maybe but the things were like $13 bucks a throw, and may be th difference between some of us getting to race vs. not.     I'm getting inspected on Friday-- they already sent out t list of most common shortcomings....   so I'm grateful to have found them...

They were ready to fill the demand, that is smart. I didn't mean it to sound like they were gouging anyone.

Those flares are fuckin' expensive and worth every penny.

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11 minutes ago, 12345 said:

CaptureWind.JPG

:D Glad I'm sitting this one out this year. Going to go from a drifter on Sat to a hard beat on Sun...

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Can't someone just reply and give an elaborate explanation why the models are wrong and it wont' be miserable.  Tell me an outright lie so I can enjoy the rest of my week, because it's clear that I won't be enjoying my weekend.

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Hey oshitsky

wind will be 8-12 out of the wsw. Sky's will be sunny.  Overnight they will back to the ese the go east all day sunday. Temps in the upper 70s and sunny.  No wind above 12 and none below 8.  

 

Does this heplp you get through the week?

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7 hours ago, ftbinc said:

Hey oshitsky

wind will be 8-12 out of the wsw. Sky's will be sunny.  Overnight they will back to the ese the go east all day sunday. Temps in the upper 70s and sunny.  No wind above 12 and none below 8.  

 

Does this heplp you get through the week?

And the bugs?  No bugs either?!?

Talk dirty to me.

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Forecast is looking MUCH better this morning!  The GFE is still showing some nasty winds but NOAA has backed off and all the other models look decent.   I hope so,  not really up for another beating this year.

 

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Not sure what you guys are looking at...

SailFlow shows a close reach start (1pm) then it clocks and by Sat night is on the nose and a beat for most of the race through Monday when it shuts off completely and you will be sitting by the Manitou, not the Straights by then because your VMGs will have been so poor with it being on the nose for 80% of the race! :D

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South Huron Buoy forecast for Sunday. 

SUNDAY...North winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to
7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

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Then the sun and flies will come out, and you'll run out of beer and have to drink cooler water

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12 minutes ago, More Cowbell2 said:

South Huron Buoy forecast for Sunday. 

SUNDAY...North winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to
7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

Where is the buoy? Is that the North Lake one? I need to go dig up the NOAA buoy map...

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48 minutes ago, stayoutofthemiddle said:

Where is the buoy? Is that the North Lake one? I need to go dig up the NOAA buoy map...

My bad

South Lake Michigan, not Huron.

My head is still in the PH Mac.

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.TODAY...North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming variable around 10 kt
this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...South winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
.THURSDAY...South winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt.
Waves 1 to 3 ft.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to
8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
.FRIDAY...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and
thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 ft
occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to
8 ft.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to
15 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
.SATURDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to north 10 to
20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
.SUNDAY...North winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to
7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

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If that SW holds up for a few hours that might be good to make it up the lake a bit before the Northerly kicks our asses

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I was just up by Point Betsie for 2 weeks. The Lake is ready to flip, which makes everything totally unpredictable. That said, there's been some good pressure on a regular basis.

Of course, there was this too...

37188682_10216581870759767_4224765711949

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The tea leaves are arranging. Eat your Wheaties. Bring big crew.

If the forecast this morning is correct:  Wind 16-24 G 31. T-Storms, Possible waterspouts, big chop.

Please keep in mind things could still change a lot between now and race day so don't pull the plug yet if this looks like too much for you and the crew but be prepared for it.

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I hope that someone with more CYC-Monroe experience than me will comment.  But if it blows 30 out of the Southeast tonight, rafting (and maybe even just docking) at Monroe will be a challenge.  I've seen that harbor with strong SE winds and the amount of wave reflection/superimposing can be very impressive.  Not saying you will have a problem, but I would much rather be at Burnham tonight if it's a true 30.  

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Looks like the models flipped a bit. Sailflow has it calmer than they had the past few days while the Euro model has it honking.

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So DA, that said, which shore do you like for flatter water?  From Windy.com and SailFlow it looks like it will be a touch easterly so heading to MI shore might be good

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20 minutes ago, hmsmweasel said:

So DA, that said, which shore do you like for flatter water?  From Windy.com and SailFlow it looks like it will be a touch easterly so heading to MI shore might be good

If the race were today and the model for Saturday were applied to today's racing the Michigan shore is better. BUT*** that of course may change...

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33 minutes ago, hmsmweasel said:

So DA, that said, which shore do you like for flatter water?  From Windy.com and SailFlow it looks like it will be a touch easterly so heading to MI shore might be good

How are you defining flatter?  Just less height?  You might want to think about steepness (H/L).  Waves forming from a closer upwind shore will be much shorter in length and more chop-like; not necessarily faster for boat speed.  I'm guessing Mark is looking at wind shifts much more than any wave considerations.  

An awful lot can change in the next 48hrs. 

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11 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

 

An awful lot can change in the next 48hrs. 

Ding ding ding. Winning answer.

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Still looks lumpy to me.  South Michigan Buoy forecast

 

.SATURDAY...North winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. A few
gale force gusts. Chance of waterspouts in the morning.
Intermittent showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves building
to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...North winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 15 to
25 kt. Chance of waterspouts. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Waves subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
.SUNDAY...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of waterspouts.
Waves subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.MONDAY...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to
3 ft. 
 

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One model I am looking at is showing if you are not in by Monday AM you are not in till Tuesday AM 

 

 

raining-cats-and-dogs.jpg

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17 minutes ago, stayoutofthemiddle said:

I think the forecast has actually gotten worse today! :o

There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.

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9 minutes ago, 1sailor said:

There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.

Too early

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31 minutes ago, 1sailor said:

There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO0x7vL2T90

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28 minutes ago, 1sailor said:

There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.

It's easy to judge when it's not your boat/responsibility/wallet.  Hell, you probably have only done 25 of these on your boats.  But, if you exchanged South for every North in the forecasts....

 

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1 hour ago, 1sailor said:

There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.

Boat type?

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1 hour ago, 1sailor said:

There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.

Not a bad call.  The multihull "Ollie" from Bay City bailed on it several days ago, and instead of delivering down to Chicago, it is now on its way back home to Bay City.  It's not an easy decision, but if you are the one paying the bills...

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2 hours ago, 1sailor said:

There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.

Given the chance of thunderstorms, straight line winds etc I would not sail on an un-reefable main either. Never a bad call...Why no reef points?

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