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Watching it as well.  Looks like GFS has it staying out and Euro has it coming to the coast and the NHC forecast is splitting the middle.

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It's just too early to tell.

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7 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

I actually started a thread on this earlier in the week under Cape Verde Hurricanes... 

 

Thanks!

It sure has been around for a long time, it's looking impressive and it'll go somewhere... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

AL06_2018090600_ECENS_large.png

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2 hours ago, weightless said:

Thanks!

It sure has been around for a long time, it's looking impressive and it'll go somewhere... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

AL06_2018090600_ECENS_large.png

Send it to. . .

 

 

. . .Detroit.

 

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4 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

This morning not looking good for us. It seems likely to hit someplace on the east coast for sure :(

 

Weirdness

99 other times, a hurricane this far east will not even make it to Bermuda. Must be some darkness in The Force keeping it from turning north, like usual

FB- Doug

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Latest still has it holding a westerly course. This is really looking like it may be a factor for us here.

Insurance will call offering a free haul or something about 2 days after every yard is booked solid so it will be off to a mooring I go...........................

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Grrrr... This thing really needs to go somewhere else.

Hauling isn't always the savior either. We had boats blown off of stands during the past winter.  I can see that I need to go purchase more and longer docklines.

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Must be some darkness in The Force keeping it from turning north

Hopefully I'm not butchering this... and I'm sure DryArmor can explain it better, but there's a ridge over the central US which is preventing fronts from moving off the East Coast.   These fronts are typically what "drag" the hurricanes off to the N/NE.

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2 hours ago, IrieMon said:

Hopefully I'm not butchering this... and I'm sure DryArmor can explain it better, but there's a ridge over the central US which is preventing fronts from moving off the East Coast.   These fronts are typically what "drag" the hurricanes off to the N/NE.

I'm probably butchering it too, but, FWIW, here's a chart of the 500mb (hPa) winds (knots) and height (decameters). The winds ~500mb are a reasonable approximation of the steering force on the storm. In this pic you see two 500mb highs (588) with ridging developing between them. To the N of the ridge the steering forces are NW and below the ridge the steering will push the system W. Small changes in the relationship between the ridge and the storm could make a big difference in where it goes while there's still a path to the N. That path is forecast to close off as the ridge strengthens.

gfs_z500_vort_atl_8.png

Here's the development looking at 500mb height and MSLP:

gfs_z500_mslp_atl_fh42-108.thumb.gif.53235c54f3953002c7f48b0c44351033.gif

 

 

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Great...  A-Class North Americans are Wed thru Sat in Sandy Hook.  Looks like Forence may be impacting the regatta.

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9 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Weirdness

99 other times, a hurricane this far east will not even make it to Bermuda. Must be some darkness in The Force keeping it from turning north, like usual

FB- Doug

Its alll about "The Ridge"

This is from Ryan Maue's twitter feed. He has revolutionized weather model graphics. Following his twitter alone is worth it when these beasts lurk:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

image.png.7e260623db77ff07737b3167b431452f.png

 

As is Joe Bastardi's daily update on weatherbell. His knowledge of tropical cyclones is encyclopedic, and he picks up on nascent patterns before anyone else far more often than not. Click on the "premium" tab here. The daily update is outside the paywall:

https://www.weatherbell.com

 

 

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So happens we were on vacation in Lancaster PA  in 1972 when  Hurricane Agnes threatened my Hobie down on the Gulf. It then came north flooding out the mid Atlantic...

Agnes_1972_track.png

 

Bastardi is making the very viable warning that as wet as the region is this year, Florence is a serious threat to not only bring stronger hurricane conditions along the coastline and bays, but also rival the catastrophic flooding that Agnes produced:

https://www.pbs.org/video/wskg-public-telecommunications-agnes-flood-72/

 

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Must watch vid from Tropical Tidbits. Last half focuses on Florence:

 

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NC govenor already told folks to prepare tonight.

Earlier today, I had to traverse about 40 miles of coastal SE Virginia just north of Yorktown.    Every farm was harvesting like they were on speed.

Tractors, harvesters and tractor trailers everywhere.

Going rac'n tomorrow, but will prep Sunday.

Could be a long 2 weeks what with Florence and the next two depressions.

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Thanks to that ridge Passage Weather shows it stalling off Chesapeake bay entrance. Interesting situation.

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3 hours ago, Soley said:

Thanks to that ridge Passage Weather shows it stalling off Chesapeake bay entrance. Interesting situation.

Passage Weather is showing the GFS solution. 

If anyone ever invents some code that will perfectly predict the future, then screw messing around with the weather!!!! Time to go on the World's Finest Casino Tour!!

Read-n-Heed Dr. Ryan Maue's analysis of that particular model solution:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

image.png.14adc270e486b662a02a1e738f826ff1.png

image.png.62bd65d9a5d33613e9d0b1034a743eba.png

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30 minutes ago, Sean said:

 

Not good. 
Finally got around to checking this out. The NHC 5-day forecast for is indeed the strongest they have ever projected an Atlantic tropical storm in the last two decades.

 

It is important to keep this particular statistic in perspective. 

This paper was published by Chris Landsea and Phillip Klotzback

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0188.1

Free Access Extremely Intense Hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 Years

Philip J. Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
 
 
Christopher W. Landsea NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida
 
 
Abstract

Ten years ago, Webster et al. documented a large and significant increase in both the number as well as the percentage of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for all global basins from 1970 to 2004, and this manuscript examines whether those trends have continued when including 10 additional years of data. In contrast to that study, as shown here, the global frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant downward trend while the percentage of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant upward trend between 1990 and 2014. Accumulated cyclone energy globally has experienced a large and significant downward trend during the same period. The primary reason for the increase in category 4 and 5 hurricanes noted in observational datasets from 1970 to 2004 by Webster et al. is concluded to be due to observational improvements at the various global tropical cyclone warning centers, primarily in the first two decades of that study.

(Highly recommend reading the whole paper)

4. Conclusions

It was suggested by Klotzbach (2006) and Landsea et al. (2006) that technological improvements during the 1970s and 1980s were primarily responsible for the dramatic increases in the frequency and percentage occurrences of category 4–5 hurricanes worldwide reported in Webster et al. (2005). With 10 additional hurricane seasons now available to analyze, the long-term (1970–2014) trends showed reduced trends in category 4–5 frequency and percentage globally. When restricted to the most recent 25 years (1990–2014) with the most reliable and homogeneous records, the following conclusions are reached from this analysis:

  • Small, insignificant decreasing trends are present in category 4–5 hurricane frequency in the Northern Hemisphere and globally, while there is no virtually no trend in Southern Hemisphere frequency.

  • Small, insignificant upward trends are present in category 4–5 hurricane percentage in the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere, and globally.

  • Large, significant downward trends are present in accumulated cyclone energy in the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere, and globally.

(emphasis mine)

These results provide more evidence that the changes reported by Webster et al. (2005) that occurred in number and percentages of category 4–5 hurricanes globally during the 1970s and 1980s were likely primarily due to improved observational capabilities. These results are more in line with expectations from climate models (Knutson et al. 20102013Camargo 2013Christensen et al. 2013Bender et al. 2010), which suggest that no appreciable change in category 4–5 hurricane numbers or percentages would be detectable at this time due to anthropogenic climate change.

Because of the additional evidence provided here about the artificial impacts of technology on the best-track databases, it is recommended that global studies addressing trends in extreme hurricanes (as well as combined metrics like ACE) begin around 1990. Before this time, the records are currently incomplete and lead to a distorted view of the actual activity that occurred before that time. We would also encourage the further development and extension backward in time of satellite-only homogeneous databases (Kossin et al. 2013) suitable for trend analysis.

Trends in category 4–5 hurricane numbers and percentages and ACE should be revisited whenever historical TC databases are reanalyzed (Hagen et al. 2012) and when another decade or so of additional seasons are recorded. However, given the large natural variability driven by ENSO and other natural phenomena, it is likely to be challenging to confidently ascribe an anthropogenic signal to changes in the most intense tropical cyclones for the next several decades.

 
 

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4 minutes ago, sidmon said:

It is important to keep this particular statistic in perspective. 

This paper was published by Chris Landsea and Phillip Klotzback

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0188.1

Free Access Extremely Intense Hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 Years

Philip J. Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
 
 
Christopher W. Landsea NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida
 
 
Abstract

Ten years ago, Webster et al. documented a large and significant increase in both the number as well as the percentage of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for all global basins from 1970 to 2004, and this manuscript examines whether those trends have continued when including 10 additional years of data. In contrast to that study, as shown here, the global frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant downward trend while the percentage of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant upward trend between 1990 and 2014. Accumulated cyclone energy globally has experienced a large and significant downward trend during the same period. The primary reason for the increase in category 4 and 5 hurricanes noted in observational datasets from 1970 to 2004 by Webster et al. is concluded to be due to observational improvements at the various global tropical cyclone warning centers, primarily in the first two decades of that study.

(Highly recommend reading the whole paper)

4. Conclusions

It was suggested by Klotzbach (2006) and Landsea et al. (2006) that technological improvements during the 1970s and 1980s were primarily responsible for the dramatic increases in the frequency and percentage occurrences of category 4–5 hurricanes worldwide reported in Webster et al. (2005). With 10 additional hurricane seasons now available to analyze, the long-term (1970–2014) trends showed reduced trends in category 4–5 frequency and percentage globally. When restricted to the most recent 25 years (1990–2014) with the most reliable and homogeneous records, the following conclusions are reached from this analysis:

  • Small, insignificant decreasing trends are present in category 4–5 hurricane frequency in the Northern Hemisphere and globally, while there is no virtually no trend in Southern Hemisphere frequency.

  • Small, insignificant upward trends are present in category 4–5 hurricane percentage in the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere, and globally.

  • Large, significant downward trends are present in accumulated cyclone energy in the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere, and globally.

 

These results provide more evidence that the changes reported by Webster et al. (2005) that occurred in number and percentages of category 4–5 hurricanes globally during the 1970s and 1980s were likely primarily due to improved observational capabilities. These results are more in line with expectations from climate models (Knutson et al. 2010, 2013; Camargo 2013; Christensen et al. 2013; Bender et al. 2010), which suggest that no appreciable change in category 4–5 hurricane numbers or percentages would be detectable at this time due to anthropogenic climate change.

Because of the additional evidence provided here about the artificial impacts of technology on the best-track databases, it is recommended that global studies addressing trends in extreme hurricanes (as well as combined metrics like ACE) begin around 1990. Before this time, the records are currently incomplete and lead to a distorted view of the actual activity that occurred before that time. We would also encourage the further development and extension backward in time of satellite-only homogeneous databases (Kossin et al. 2013) suitable for trend analysis.

Trends in category 4–5 hurricane numbers and percentages and ACE should be revisited whenever historical TC databases are reanalyzed (Hagen et al. 2012) and when another decade or so of additional seasons are recorded. However, given the large natural variability driven by ENSO and other natural phenomena, it is likely to be challenging to confidently ascribe an anthropogenic signal to changes in the most intense tropical cyclones for the next several decades.

 
 

I appreciate the info, but I’m not sure what it has to do with the graphic I posted. 

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3 minutes ago, Sean said:

I appreciate the info, but I’m not sure what it has to do with the graphic I posted. 

That improved detection is a primary driver of the number of stronger storms recorded. 

Florence is not an unprecedented storm.

 

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1 minute ago, sidmon said:

That improved detection is a primary driver of the number of stronger storms recorded.

 

The graphic is limited to forecasts between 1998 - 2017. It has no reference to trends over time, but simply that the current Florence forecast predicts a higher intensity than any previous forecast within the last 20 years. Your point is well taken, but I’m not convinced it’s relevant in this instance.

 

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39 minutes ago, Sean said:

The graphic is limited to forecasts between 1998 - 2017. It has no reference to trends over time, but simply that the current Florence forecast predicts a higher intensity than any previous forecast within the last 20 years. Your point is well taken, but I’m not convinced it’s relevant in this instance.

 

We are about to hear "strongest" attached to Florence with little regard to context as it amps up and closes the coast, so its important to keep it in perspective.

Intensity forecasts are still problematic in comparison to those that predict track, and there is much effort to improve them.

As there hqve been nearly 40 Cat 4 storms in the period specified, the question begs: Are we seeing the result of a higher skill forecast?

Would also be interesting to see a graph with a start at 60 hours. Bet the same claim cant be made.,

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the data does not give us any knowledge of funding source for the studies. biased reports can be dressed up like putting gloss on a t**d. Has the data been peer reviewed or maybe it has and only the cherry picked stuff is presented here.

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24 minutes ago, timber said:

the data does not give us any knowledge of funding source for the studies. biased reports can be dressed up like putting gloss on a t**d. Has the data been peer reviewed or maybe it has and only the cherry picked stuff is presented here.

If you are talking about the Klotzbach Landsea paper. It was published in the AMS. Pretty much a gold standard there.

Also, check out their bios in the links above. Phil Klotzbach took over from Dr. Bill Gray who pioneered the hurricane seasonal forecasts, as heqd of the world's leading hurricane research institution.

Chris Landsea is Branch Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at NHC.

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This is the forecast from Windy for next Friday evening. 50+ kt northwesterly winds at the mouth of the Bay, plus lots of extra rain seems like it would mean significant flooding?

What’s most concerning for the Mid-Atlantic is that all the models show an immediate hook to the northeast after landfall, taking this beast right over the region regardless of what part of the coast takes the first hit. 

8F8EF3DE-23AF-45D5-889A-8D3B7B1013DC.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Illegal Smile said:

This is the forecast from Windy for next Friday evening. 50+ kt northwesterly winds at the mouth of the Bay, plus lots of extra rain seems like it would mean significant flooding?

What’s most concerning for the Mid-Atlantic is that all the models show an immediate hook to the northeast after landfall, taking this beast right over the region regardless of what part of the coast takes the first hit. 

8F8EF3DE-23AF-45D5-889A-8D3B7B1013DC.jpeg

That is the ECMWF.  The GFS is significantly different than the EURO.

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20 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

The GFS is significantly different than the EURO.

The GFS is a bit odd around landfall these last couple runs. But maybe more to the point there's still quite a lot of uncertainty in all the forecasts. I wouldn't put much faith in the details yet. Even the EC is all over the place:

AL06.gif

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1 hour ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Florence is going to dump rain on saturated ground - we are getting minor flooding now from the other one :(

bad news for falling trees - storm surge and falling trees, those are the 2 big ones.  be safe.

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I read an interesting piece this morning that mentioned that Flo could absorb that Invest 94 which is ahead of it. According to the article, that is what Katrina did a day before it hit New Orleans and caused it to double in size in 24 hours. I'm surprised that Tidbits didn't mention that possibility but perhaps he will tonight.

https://www.newsweek.com/bad-thing-florence-could-do-think-hurricane-katrina-2005-1112835

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/728507/Hurricane-Storm-Florence-North-South-Carolina-Katrina-US-weather

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2 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Florence is going to dump rain on saturated ground - we are getting minor flooding now from the other one :(

Models have her stalling just inshore, could be lots more water in your future. Hoping for the best for you and yours man - stay safe!

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It is storming pretty good right now. Trees down all over the place and flooding. I tied up my furling jib and added extra lines and gave a thought for everyone bashing into it getting home from the Oxford Race.

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We snuck over from Shaw Bay to St. Mike's this morning before the wind picked up. 

We're soaked and rocking. The reverse transom makes a hell of a bang once in a while. 

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It’s blowing pretty hard from the East in Barnegat Bay. Twinbro said he went to check on my boat since I’m out of town  and he couldn’t get aboard. 

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5 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Florence is going to dump rain on saturated ground - we are getting minor flooding now from the other one :(

Rainfall from tropical storm records by state:

Something to note...Check out the Western States. 

No doubt Dry Armor will be all over  whats looming out there.

Storm's a brewin'!

tcstatemaxima.gif

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Marine Traffic shows a clearing out of traffic around Florence. Seems the lesson from the El Faro that went down in Jaoquin in the Caribbean in 2015 was learnt.

I wonder if anyone has tried to "animate" Marine Traffic which might show the tracks of ships avoiding a hurricane.

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52 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Fog Cove should be totally protected from this wind - are you in there?

Yes, at the CBMM. It's not protected though...it's hooting right in here, in the only exposed opening!

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4 hours ago, Ajax said:

Yes, at the CBMM. It's not protected though...it's hooting right in here, in the only exposed opening!

*Side bar*

What's the story with that land bound drawbridge on the way in to the maritime museum?

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51 minutes ago, hobot said:

*Side bar*

What's the story with that land bound drawbridge on the way in to the maritime museum?

It used to be the drawbridge for Tilghman Island, I believe.

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maybe moving more northward ?  Devastating for NC.  Further flooding for the Chesapeake....

06L_tracks_latest.png

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Has any one heard or seen any FEMA staging in the East Coast near the Carolinas. This ain’t Puerto Rico. Thought after a direct hit on the US Mainland much of the area will look like Puerto Rico after Miria mover through. I have interest in the Durham NC area.

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I have been through 11 hurricanes, including Andrew. I feel for anyone taking a direct hit.

What people don't realize is after the winds die down, the problems are just beginning. It took some people several years to fully recover from Andrew. Some never did.

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1 minute ago, DRIFTW00D said:

Has any one heard or seen any FEMA staging in the East Coast near the Carolinas. This ain’t Puerto Rico. Thought after a direct hit on the US Mainland much of the area will look like Puerto Rico after Miria mover through. I have interest in the Durham NC area.

In this post-Katrina election year, zero doubt they've already been on it. 

By next week there will be TV worthy  flooding in Hawaii Texas and the Carolinas to the Ohio Valley and New York... Along with Cantore narrated hurricane effects all the way from Savannah to New Jersey.

 

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Hello and maybe goodbye from Bofort, NC. If it's as predicted, we're on the bad side at landfall. I've been thru a bunch of these but maybe not like this. We'll see.

 

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Younger daughter manages a flower shop on Johns Island, in Charleston.  She posted a weather map prediction of next weekend on Facebook, and said that there will be a lot of disappointed brides then!!  I think the bulk of their business is weddings, since Charleston is the 2nd most popular destination wedding location, right after Lost Wages.....

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22 minutes ago, sidmon said:
35 minutes ago, DRIFTW00D said:

Has any one heard or seen any FEMA staging in the East Coast near the Carolinas. This ain’t Puerto Rico. Thought after a direct hit on the US Mainland much of the area will look like Puerto Rico after Miria mover through. I have interest in the Durham NC area.

In this post-Katrina election year, zero doubt they've already been on it. 

By next week there will be TV worthy  flooding in Hawaii Texas and the Carolinas to the Ohio Valley and New York... Along with Cantore narrated hurricane effects all the way from Savannah to New Jersey.

This will be an issue.  A Cat 4 coming into the Carolinas will bring widespread flooding, massive electrical distribution damage with millions of acres of downed timber (mostly pine) in the target zone.  If the system stalls inland (roughly NW NC, SW Virginia, lower Shenandoah Valley area) as some forecasters are calling for then catastrophic flooding and prolonged higher winds.  

As it develops, my biggest worry on the Mid-Chesapeake Western Shore is the saturated soil and high winds the KIS mentioned a couple of days ago. Similar setup to Irene where strong TS winds took out power to 95% of my county.  I lost 18 mature hardwoods (up to 34" in diameter) with 3 damaged cars (one totaled) and several outbuildings destroyed and 37 power poles down between me and the substation.  It took 12 days to get power back on.  Fortunately, I have a whole house generator and a 550 gallon underground propane tank so I can make it 3-4 weeks with decent conservation practices.  If we get Cat 1 to 3 winds in Mid Chesapeake (with the destruction path from Hatteras through Tidewater to Baltimore), it will be biblical.  

Utility company shared assistance teams do a great job and are usually staged to arrive 1-2 days after the storm.  Around here, they come from the zones that are in the crosshairs so a large damage path will stress response teams extensively.  

If it closes in on the "Low Country" as it seems to be headed, our thoughts are going to be with you.  Been a long time since you took that kind of hit.  

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3 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Kent Island is completely saturated. I could paddle a kayak around in my back yard right NOW.

sorry to hear....BTW, how safe is Kent Island from tropical storms?  My good friend is keeping his ketch at the marina (the boat is right under the bridge) on Kent Island @ Bay Bridge Marina

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Florence will be on par with Hazel at landfall...And it flooded out Toronto

 

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Anyone have a direct line to Jim Cantore's travel agent ?    Maybe access the GPS tracker on his satellite truck ?     Probably the best way to figure this one out.....  

 

 

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Went from Cambridge to Harford County yesterday, horrible drive.  Everything is swamped and the Bay was downright angry.  My chainsaw will be ready for this one. 

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28 minutes ago, dacapo said:

sorry to hear....BTW, how safe is Kent Island from tropical storms?  My good friend is keeping his ketch at the marina (the boat is right under the bridge) on Kent Island @ Bay Bridge Marina

The island is flat and barely above sea level, so not very. If the winds are from the east that marina is in the lee of the land. As long as the surge doesn't get the floating docks off the pilings that marina won't be the worst place. No part of that marina is under a bridge though, you sure you have the right place?

 

bayb.jpg

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1 minute ago, kent_island_sailor said:

The island is flat and barely above sea level, so not very. If the winds are from the east that marina is in the lee of the land. As long as the surge doesn't get the floating docks off the pilings that marina won't be the worst place. No part of that marina is under a bridge though, you sure you have the right place?

 

bayb.jpg

yeah...maybe they meant near the bridge

 

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2 hours ago, DRIFTW00D said:

Has any one heard or seen any FEMA staging in the East Coast near the Carolinas. This ain’t Puerto Rico. Thought after a direct hit on the US Mainland much of the area will look like Puerto Rico after Miria mover through. I have interest in the Durham NC area.

There have been four FEMA trucks on the on ramp to the beltline from Wake Forrest Rd for about two months now.  I guess they were thinking ahead?  We are fornicated in Eastern NC.

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We are down at out beach house in NC, just northeast of Wilmington. Topsail Island. Early talk down here is this could be the worst hit since Hurricane Hazel, which leveled the island in 1954. Total rebuild. There is still a lot of time for the storm to change course and intensity. But simply put, this sucks.

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Well, folks, it's official.  She's now a Cat 4.  Ugh.

~~~

368 
WTNT61 KNHC 101556
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
near 130 mph (195 km/h).  The latest minimum central pressure based
on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

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I have some sailing buddies in Beaufort NC.  I believe they're packed and getting out of town.  Poor old Beaufort will be a sad mess - looks right in the crosshairs.

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21 minutes ago, freewheelin said:

We are down at out beach house in NC, just northeast of Wilmington. Topsail Island. Early talk down here is this could be the worst hit since Hurricane Hazel, which leveled the island in 1954. Total rebuild. There is still a lot of time for the storm to change course and intensity. But simply put, this sucks.

It's heading right at Wilmington. This could get really ugly. Many friends down your way.

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2 minutes ago, doghouse said:

It's heading right at Wilmington. This could get really ugly. Many friends down your way.

I think it will get ugly. We will be getting out of course regardless, but my guess is they will call an evacuation. We are right on the water and have gone from talking about getting the deck furniture in and secured to talking about getting valuables out.

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Just now, freewheelin said:

I think it will get ugly. We will be getting out of course regardless, but my guess is they will call an evacuation. We are right on the water and have gone from talking about getting the deck furniture in and secured to talking about getting valuables out.

 

I really think that's the smart move. I'd get all you can carry prioritizing things of sentimental value.

I'm sure a general evacuation is going to be called if this keeps up like it is.

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^ good luck.

I notice that the latest NHC graphic shows this beast still a Hurricane well inland Friday morning. Fucked up bigtime. 

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1 hour ago, dacapo said:

yeah...maybe they meant near the bridge

 

Is your friend here on the island? That marina is 10 minutes from my house if you need someone to run over there and look at anything.

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NHC Wind radius data the USN generates into  a graphic. Outer circle at each coordinate is forecast 34 kt wind field. Maroon is 50 kt radius. And purple is the 64 kt radius. Really shows how relatively small the actual hurricane core is. Note the 64 kt radius is not predicted in the "extended' positions, in this cae the 13th/12Z and 14th/12Z. NHC is currently forecasting the Florence to weaken back to a storm by the 15th/12Z.

Again, this isnt the Navy's unique forecast, they just make the plot from each NHC update. This one is the latest #45.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

al062018.18091006.gif

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Navy ships going out - some others coming in.

What I don't get is the huge crowd of anchored ships (green circles). Sure it is more protected than just being anchored out in the Atlantic, but if the storm heads a little north it will be a total bitch to get out of there without hitting one of the other ones or getting blown aground.

mt1.jpg

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4 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Navy ships going out - some others coming in.

What I don't get is the huge crowd of anchored ships (green circles). Sure it is more protected than just being anchored out in the Atlantic, but if the storm heads a little north it will be a total bitch to get out of there without hitting one of the other ones or getting blown aground.

mt1.jpg

Been there. Done that. Always a lumpy miserable ride. At least forecast track accuracy is way better than it was in my day.

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I have been through all the hurricanes in the Houston area starting with 1961 and have done post storm disaster work on several. Recently I watched some drone footage of Port Aransas post Harvey - wtf are people thinking with roller furler jibs and canvas on their boats?  Strip it, tie it down and get the hell out. I have also known a number of people who rode the storms out - all said would never do it again.  If relying on gas generator stock up on fuel now. 

Secure your stuff and get out way before it hits.  Good luck to you guys and stay safe.

edit: Just read the last Cat 4 to hit the Wilmington area was 1954.  If it's coming your way and you haven't been through that level of storm don't discount what happens.  Wind tears stuff up, surge wipes it out.

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9 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Navy ships going out - some others coming in.

What I don't get is the huge crowd of anchored ships (green circles). Sure it is more protected than just being anchored out in the Atlantic, but if the storm heads a little north it will be a total bitch to get out of there without hitting one of the other ones or getting blown aground.

 

Merchant ship owners treat those vessels as disposable. Thats what insurance is for is how they may be looking at it. They are better off at anchor than pierside. Which makes me wonder how many grey boats may join them, or just be stuck pierside at NOB, as the USN is generally broke dick these days and some can't get underway. Sure as hell glad I'm not on an LCS too! Remember a "boomer" couldnt depart Charleston during David in '79 and she just partially submerged into the mud.

But, to your point. What happened in Osaka last week. Be really bad if it happened in the Chesapeake!:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-04/japan-typhoon-sends-2600-tonne-tanker-crashing-into-bridge/10200814

Image result for osaka ship hit bridge

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Big Medicine from Dr. Ryan Maue. The GFS model is the Garbage Frickin Solution in its forecast track. And 12Z Euro was already gestating when Flo amped up  this morning so its intensities are off.

 

 

 

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We are due to close on a townhouse in Conway SC (inland from Myrtle Beach) on the 24, coming in on 10/1 to furnish it.

Will be interesting to observe what the damage/flooding is before it's our skin in the game, and to observe which marinas did the best for future reference. 

Good luck and preparations to those that are under the forecast. 

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Wasn't the boomer incident during Hugo? I seem to remember the security guys went to check on the sub and found it gone when the crew parked it on the bottom.

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7 minutes ago, Proneshooter said:

Wasn't the boomer incident during Hugo? I seem to remember the security guys went to check on the sub and found it gone when the crew parked it on the bottom.

Wasn't there for Hugo, but the DD I was on was opened up in the drydock at the yard in David in 79, so I  saw her. We were worried about the Cooper River breaching the dock doors, and just all the crap flying around. Also, there was an SSN in the next dock getting refueled. As this was just after Three Mile Island, nobody wanted to see trouble in that dock!!! 

The ships that did get underway got beat to hell. The Sellars lost all her lifeline stanchions forward.

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27 minutes ago, NaptimeAgain said:

That just loops back to this thread....

 

 

 

NORFOLK (NNS) -- Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces Command ordered all Navy ships in the Hampton Roads area to set Sortie Condition Alpha; ships are completing final preparations and will begin to sortie today, ahead of Hurricane Florence.

There are nearly 30 ships preparing to get underway from Naval Station Norfolk and Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek as Hurricane Florence is forecasted to bring high winds and rain to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Ships will be directed to areas of the Atlantic where they will be best postured for storm avoidance.

Some units will not get underway due to maintenance status but will be taking extra precautions to avoid potential damage. Commanding officers have a number of options when staying in port, depending on the severity of the weather. Some of these options include adding additional mooring and storm lines, dropping the anchor, and disconnecting shore power cables.

“Our ships can better weather storms of this magnitude when they are underway,” said U.S. Fleet Forces Commander Adm. Christopher Grady in a news release earlier this weekend.

The number one mission is to protect the fleet, to include keeping our personnel and their families safe.

Additionally, Commander, Navy Region Mid-Atlantic ordered all Navy installations in the Hampton Roads area to set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Three (III), meaning sustained destructive winds of greater than 50 knots associated with a tropical system are expected within 48 hours.

Navy installations in Hampton Roads have begun to prepare for the storm. Some preparations include securing hazards throughout the installations, removing debris from drainage areas, designating alternate parking areas for flood prone areas, sand bagging flood prone areas, topping off fuel in generators and government vehicles and relocating dumpsters and equipment to more secure areas.

All personnel and their families should review their Navy Family Accountability and Assessment System (NFAAS) account at https://navyfamily.navy.mil, as well as review hurricane checklists and evacuation plans in the event an evacuation is necessary. Service members are encouraged to discuss evacuation and reporting requirements with their chain of command and family members.

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