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Can confirm lots of naval activity in Hampton Roads. Lots of refueling. Southern Virginia Beach has had evacuation orders are expected to be signed this afternoon.

Not a professional but agree with Mark that the Euro seems too far left. The high sitting off of the Tidewater area suggests to me that Flo will make a turn north sooner than the Euro says, but later than what the GFS is saying. 

Tidewater area of Virginia is looking at potentially 18" of storm. In an area that floods if someone looks wrong at a sink faucet.

We have about $4.5 million in waterfront assets to secure at this facility by Wednesday. Would love a professional read from the 18z data @DryArmour if  you don't mind. We're hoping to have all our shit buttoned up tight by 5pm on Wednesday. Double duct tape on the ol turd cutter. And the truck in a parking garage.

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39 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

and I agree with him.  I still think the EURO is too far to the left on final approach top the coach.

The dangers of looking at any one model. Like I say, if someone invents code to perfectly predict the future, the screw the weather! Go on a casino tour!

You could do us all some good by expounding on "guidance" vs "forecast".

NHC #45 discussion excerpt:

Quote

  The various models are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus has barely budged in the past few model
 cycles.  Thus the new NHC forecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE consensus guidance.
 It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140 and
 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the center.

Not sure if you have seen this paper about track bias from NWS Houston that pertains to the Gulf Coast, but its interesting:

Lance Wood's presentation at hurricane seminar some years back

https://www.weather.gov/media/hgx/stormsignals/vol68.pdf

Quote

When a Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone is forecast to make landfall, it is inevitable that many critical decisions will have to be made. Decision makers often ask, “What is the confidence of the track forecast?” Until recently, we did not have an objective tool to help answer this question. Knowing that the forecast is one of high or low confidence aids the decision making process. After the 2003 hurricane season, we decided to examine the Gulf landfall forecasts for the past 6 seasons (1998-2003) to see if we could use what we know about the cyclone (initial conditions) when the forecast is made to predict the future error of the track forecast. Being able to correlate initial conditions to future track error allows for an objective determination of confidence in the upcoming forecast. In order to make the results from the study useable during a real-time tropical cyclone threat, a forecast confidence decision tree was developed from the results of the study. The decision tree categorizes the cyclone based on the intensity, speed of movement, formation location and center stability at the time the forecast is made. Results indicate that there is a wide range of error that can be expected based on these initial conditions. The greatest error and lowest forecast confidence can be expected from stationary, center reforming, tropical storms that develop in the Gulf of Mexico; whereas, the least error and highest forecast confidence can be expected from moderate moving, category 2 or greater hurricanes. In these extreme examples, average error differences are on the order of 250 miles at the 48 hour forecast point. During the study we also examined landfall timing errors and left/right coastal biases. It was found that the majority of landfall forecasts exhibited a left bias (forecast track is left of the actual track along the coastline). This bias was most significant for tropical storms that were forecast to make landfall between 37 and 72 hours. The majority of forecasts also depicted landfall later than the cyclone actually made landfall. Results indicate that for planning purposes, landfall timing errors of 6 and 14 hours are appropriate for landfall forecasts in the 12-36 hour and 37-72 hour periods, respectively. We are hopeful that this new track confidence/error assessing tool will translate into improved evacuation decisions/ preparation activities during a tropical cyclone landfall threat episode. Considering that the preparation cost for a hurricane landfall threat is estimated at 1 million dollars per mile of coastline, just a small adjustment in the realistic error of a track forecast will have huge economic implications.

Link to AMS paper:

https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/139300.pdf

Quote

3.2 Along Coast and Timing Errors/Biases
The majority of forecasts depicting landfall within 72 hours for tropical storms and hurricanes are left (along the coast) of the actual landfall location and exhibit a late bias (Table 1). Interestingly, a significant right bias is present beyond 72 hours from landfall (73 to 120 hour period) for hurricanes and for <12 mph tropical storms. This reversal of directional error is important for decision makers to realize as the error trend is likely to shift from right to left as tropical cyclones near the coast. Note that fast moving tropical storms (> 12 mph) are the exception to this observation as a significant left bias is present in the 73 to 120 hour period. The standard deviation (STD) of time error indicates that appropriate timing errors for planning purposes, for hurricanes, range from 3 to 5 hours for in the 12 to 36 hour period to 15 to 19 hours in the 73 to 120 hour period. Given that large timing errors are common beyond 72 hours from landfall, and that an early forecast bias ranging from 6 to 13 hours exists for hurricanes, decision makers should be careful not to rush to action as they will often have more available time than is being forecast. 

I haven't found any subsequent validation of their tool at KHGX...but hey... they usually answer their emails!

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That’s a shitload of water in a very shallow tub -

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018091012_123_4

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So - what to do. Back towards Bermuda and risk the dangerous half or try and get across the track and get spit out the southern end.
North is IMHO a better shot at getting away totally and south is a better shot at the safer half if you don't make it. I hope for their sake they can make some speed. Anyone have a full access account to see what this vessel is? Catalina 36 or a small cruise ship?

rahro.jpg

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6 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

So - what to do. Back towards Bermuda and risk the dangerous half or try and get across the track and get spit out the southern end.
North is IMHO a better shot at getting away totally and south is a better shot at the safer half if you don't make it. I hope for their sake they can make some speed. Anyone have a full access account to see what this vessel is? Catalina 36 or a small cruise ship?

rahro.jpg

That all depends on how fast they are... I would head NE ASAP unless I can make 350 miles in a day.

.

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6 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

So - what to do. Back towards Bermuda and risk the dangerous half or try and get across the track and get spit out the southern end.
North is IMHO a better shot at getting away totally and south is a better shot at the safer half if you don't make it. I hope for their sake they can make some speed. Anyone have a full access account to see what this vessel is? Catalina 36 or a small cruise ship?

rahro.jpg

 

NE as fast as fucking possible. You go south and you have Issac potentially breathing down your asshole.

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20182531845_GOES16-ABI-car-13-2000x2000.

  Looking like Flo's planning to inhale the remains of the gulf TD before she visits the states.

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5 minutes ago, celphtaught said:

 

NE as fast as fucking possible. You go south and you have Issac potentially breathing down your asshole.

NE would be my choice, but they better be doing it NOW.  No idea if they have INMARSAT and are reading this thread or have no long range comms at all.

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13 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

NE would be my choice, but they better be doing it NOW.  No idea if they have INMARSAT and are reading this thread or have no long range comms at all.

Dont see any other data like age of posit course and speed or size of vessel. If its a mega yacht, he has ship size to cope for a bit to get south at some speed. If he is a sailboat, he'd better be getting Old School Bowditch, keep the wind on his starboard quarter at 160 relative and go as fast as he can....And do it NOW.

Quote

On storm track, ahead of center: Bring the wind 2 points on the starboard quarter (about 160° relative), hold course and make as much way as possible. When well within the less dangerous semicircle, maneuver as indicated above

Actually, if it is a sailboat...Why would he be there at the  very peak of the hurricane season in the first place??????

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Navy buggin’ out -

https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp

NORFOLK (NNS) -- Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces Command ordered all Navy ships in the Hampton Roads area to set Sortie Condition Alpha; ships are completing final preparations and will begin to sortie today, ahead of Hurricane Florence.

There are nearly 30 ships preparing to get underway from Naval Station Norfolk and Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek as Hurricane Florence is forecasted to bring high winds and rain to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Ships will be directed to areas of the Atlantic where they will be best postured for storm avoidance.

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1 minute ago, Sean said:

Navy buggin’ out -

https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp

NORFOLK (NNS) -- Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces Command ordered all Navy ships in the Hampton Roads area to set Sortie Condition Alpha; ships are completing final preparations and will begin to sortie today, ahead of Hurricane Florence.

There are nearly 30 ships preparing to get underway from Naval Station Norfolk and Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek as Hurricane Florence is forecasted to bring high winds and rain to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Ships will be directed to areas of the Atlantic where they will be best postured for storm avoidance.

(bump)

 

 

 

 

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It is a calm, beautiful day here in coastal Carolina. What an eerie feeling knowing there is a monster out there coming our way. We are just Northeast of Wilmington on Topsail Island and mandatory evacuation has been issued, starting at 8 am tomorrow. My granddad bought the land for $200 and then built this house back in the 70s, and he built it the old way, the right way. We have fortified since. One story, built on stilts, sturdy as hell. The basement walls are designed to blow in allowing the storm surge to rip under. She has been through storms before, and hopefully will through them again. But there is only so much you can do if a Cat 4 punches in your coordinates.

Time to get offline and get to work. Barricade, reinforce, close down, remove anything perishable, take the important and sentimental. One more walk on the beach. One more swim. then get the fuck out. Wish us luck. And fuck you Florence.

 

Topsail1.JPG

Topsail2.JPG

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15 minutes ago, freewheelin said:

It is a calm, beautiful day here in coastal Carolina. What an eerie feeling knowing there is a monster out there coming our way. We are just Northeast of Wilmington on Topsail Island and mandatory evacuation has been issued, starting at 8 am tomorrow. My granddad bought the land for $200 and then built this house back in the 70s, and he built it the old way, the right way. We have fortified since. One story, built on stilts, sturdy as hell. The basement walls are designed to blow in allowing the storm surge to rip under. She has been through storms before, and hopefully will through them again. But there is only so much you can do if a Cat 4 punches in your coordinates.

Time to get offline and get to work. Barricade, reinforce, close down, remove anything perishable, take the important and sentimental. One more walk on the beach. One more swim. then get the fuck out. Wish us luck. And fuck you Florence.

 

Topsail1.JPG

Topsail2.JPG

Good luck and stay safe. Same to all of your neighbours out there. Scary shit.

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13 minutes ago, ajbram said:

Good luck and stay safe. Same to all of your neighbours out there. Scary shit.

+1.  Friends in Harlowe (just N of Morehead City) are also in the mad prepping mode.  

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43 minutes ago, freewheelin said:

It is a calm, beautiful day here in coastal Carolina. What an eerie feeling knowing there is a monster out there coming our way. We are just Northeast of Wilmington on Topsail Island and mandatory evacuation has been issued, starting at 8 am tomorrow. My granddad bought the land for $200 and then built this house back in the 70s, and he built it the old way, the right way. We have fortified since. One story, built on stilts, sturdy as hell. The basement walls are designed to blow in allowing the storm surge to rip under. She has been through storms before, and hopefully will through them again. But there is only so much you can do if a Cat 4 punches in your coordinates.

Time to get offline and get to work. Barricade, reinforce, close down, remove anything perishable, take the important and sentimental. One more walk on the beach. One more swim. then get the fuck out. Wish us luck. And fuck you Florence.

 

Topsail1.JPG

Topsail2.JPG

best of luck....get out as soon as you can safely

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4 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Navy ships going out - some others coming in.

What I don't get is the huge crowd of anchored ships (green circles). Sure it is more protected than just being anchored out in the Atlantic, but if the storm heads a little north it will be a total bitch to get out of there without hitting one of the other ones or getting blown aground.

mt1.jpg

All gone now, my guess is they were told to wait for the grey funnel line to clear through the capes.

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1 hour ago, freewheelin said:

It is a calm, beautiful day here in coastal Carolina. What an eerie feeling knowing there is a monster out there coming our way. We are just Northeast of Wilmington on Topsail Island and mandatory evacuation has been issued, starting at 8 am tomorrow. My granddad bought the land for $200 and then built this house back in the 70s, and he built it the old way, the right way. We have fortified since. One story, built on stilts, sturdy as hell. The basement walls are designed to blow in allowing the storm surge to rip under. She has been through storms before, and hopefully will through them again. But there is only so much you can do if a Cat 4 punches in your coordinates.

Time to get offline and get to work. Barricade, reinforce, close down, remove anything perishable, take the important and sentimental. One more walk on the beach. One more swim. then get the fuck out. Wish us luck. And fuck you Florence.

 

Topsail1.JPG

Topsail2.JPG

Amen.  Stay safe.  Best to you and everyone in her way.  She's a vicious, nasty storm, the kind that shows up once in a generation.

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6 hours ago, sidmon said:

That just loops back to this thread....

 

 

 

NORFOLK (NNS) -- Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces Command ordered all Navy ships in the Hampton Roads area to set Sortie Condition Alpha; ships are completing final preparations and will begin to sortie today, ahead of Hurricane Florence.

There are nearly 30 ships preparing to get underway from Naval Station Norfolk and Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek as Hurricane Florence is forecasted to bring high winds and rain to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Ships will be directed to areas of the Atlantic where they will be best postured for storm avoidance.

Some units will not get underway due to maintenance status but will be taking extra precautions to avoid potential damage. Commanding officers have a number of options when staying in port, depending on the severity of the weather. Some of these options include adding additional mooring and storm lines, dropping the anchor, and disconnecting shore power cables.

“Our ships can better weather storms of this magnitude when they are underway,” said U.S. Fleet Forces Commander Adm. Christopher Grady in a news release earlier this weekend.

The number one mission is to protect the fleet, to include keeping our personnel and their families safe.

Additionally, Commander, Navy Region Mid-Atlantic ordered all Navy installations in the Hampton Roads area to set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Three (III), meaning sustained destructive winds of greater than 50 knots associated with a tropical system are expected within 48 hours.

Navy installations in Hampton Roads have begun to prepare for the storm. Some preparations include securing hazards throughout the installations, removing debris from drainage areas, designating alternate parking areas for flood prone areas, sand bagging flood prone areas, topping off fuel in generators and government vehicles and relocating dumpsters and equipment to more secure areas.

All personnel and their families should review their Navy Family Accountability and Assessment System (NFAAS) account at https://navyfamily.navy.mil, as well as review hurricane checklists and evacuation plans in the event an evacuation is necessary. Service members are encouraged to discuss evacuation and reporting requirements with their chain of command and family members.

Oops. Was supposed to be a link to USS Narwhal.

Narwhal sustained minor damage on 22 September 1989 when Hurricane Hugo hit Charleston, South Carolina. She was moored with nine double wires and two three-inch ship's lines in preparation for the storm. All but one of the lines parted during the first half of the storm, and she drifted into the Cooper River. Tugboats and Narwhal's crew tried unsuccessfully to move the submarine back to the pier before the second half of the storm. As the storm resumed, Narwhal submerged in the river and rode out the remainder of the hurricane with only part of her sail exposed.

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Navy was gone by noon according to Marine traffic.
They were there yesterday including USS Comfort the floating hospital, so that will be online quickly after the storm.

 

Was getting additional fuel for the chainsaw last night.

Lady running the store said her husband is a coastie at Yorktown VA (major installation).

They were told to be prepared for major shit to deal with from Florence.

Got up at 5am  and got my supplies out of the way.

Water and other foodstuffs already becoming scare.

 

The pace is picked up about 20 percent.

Nobody seems to be talking about it, just quietly getting their shit together.

Neighbors were pulling boats at our marina all day.  But a lot of bozos have not done jack shit.

This included from 11-1 when the docks were all under a foot of water from the storms we have been getting since Saturday.

Tonight was perfect with no wind.

 

Old buck 2 slips down is a WWII vet.  93 years young.

He was on his hands and knees working on his boat.  I asked if my wife and I could help, but he declined.

Then he left with the genny still on, along his 5 week old dodger (gotta like a 93 old guy who orders new canvas for his boat..).

 

The crabbers where driving away from the bay with their boats stacked with all their crab traps.

Everyone is preparing on the west side of the bay which is great news.

 

You all be safe

 

forever

 

Gloucester Country (North side of James river across from Yorktown and WIlliamsburg) shut down the school system about 2 hours ago indefinitely.

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^^most local universities in Hampton Roads have also shut down effective immediately. Zone A mandatory evac starts tomorrow. 

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1 hour ago, NaptimeAgain said:

Oops. Was supposed to be a link to USS Narwhal.

Narwhal sustained minor damage on 22 September 1989 when Hurricane Hugo hit Charleston, South Carolina. She was moored with nine double wires and two three-inch ship's lines in preparation for the storm. All but one of the lines parted during the first half of the storm, and she drifted into the Cooper River. Tugboats and Narwhal's crew tried unsuccessfully to move the submarine back to the pier before the second half of the storm. As the storm resumed, Narwhal submerged in the river and rode out the remainder of the hurricane with only part of her sail exposed.

Thanks. The boomer I saw ...never knew which one she was... intentionally settled into the mud during David.

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5 hours ago, Innocent Bystander said:
5 hours ago, ajbram said:

Good luck and stay safe. Same to all of your neighbours out there. Scary shit.

+1.  Friends in Harlowe (just N of Morehead City) are also in the mad prepping mode.  

Harlowe is a pretty place but it's almost certain to get CREAMED by Florence.

I just got our boat hauled, a couple days late but thank God they had room. Now all I have to do is worry about the house, and us. I am on the fence about bugging out, they're opening shelters which makes me think that's not in the cards.

Grocery stores out of bread. Gas stations out of gas. At least the electricity still works.

And y'know what, I'd rather have hurricanes than earthquakes.

FB- Doug

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10 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Harlowe is a pretty place but it's almost certain to get CREAMED by Florence.

I just got our boat hauled, a couple days late but thank God they had room. Now all I have to do is worry about the house, and us. I am on the fence about bugging out, they're opening shelters which makes me think that's not in the cards.

Grocery stores out of bread. Gas stations out of gas. At least the electricity still works.

And y'know what, I'd rather have hurricanes than earthquakes.

FB- Doug

Yep. They are on Clubfoot Creek and on high ground (for the area) but suspect surge off Pamlico will back up the Nuese pretty badly. 

Tough folks but we are a bit worried about them. 

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5 minutes ago, Innocent Bystander said:

Yep. They are on Clubfoot Creek and on high ground (for the area) but suspect surge off Pamlico will back up the Nuese pretty badly. 

Tough folks but we are a bit worried about them. 

You mean "relatively" high ground. There really isn't any high ground worth writing home about in these three-or-four counties.

NOAA doesn't have a storm surge prediction yet. The Neuse does tend to funnel water in, and have higher surges further up river. Track is shifted a bit north, which will be worse for us -unless- this is prelude to it turning right like a normal hurricane.

One good thing, it's arriving on a falling tide at the lower end of tidal range. Maybe the water won't go over the roof after all.......

FB- Doug

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30 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

You mean "relatively" high ground. There really isn't any high ground worth writing home about in these three-or-four counties.

NOAA doesn't have a storm surge prediction yet. The Neuse does tend to funnel water in, and have higher surges further up river. Track is shifted a bit north, which will be worse for us -unless- this is prelude to it turning right like a normal hurricane.

One good thing, it's arriving on a falling tide at the lower end of tidal range. Maybe the water won't go over the roof after all.......

FB- Doug

Not to mention a foot of rain over a large river basin. 

 

D57413D3-E84C-4019-B485-F946AD0634AF.png

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16 hours ago, IrieMon said:

Anyone have a direct line to Jim Cantore's travel agent ?    Maybe access the GPS tracker on his satellite truck ?     Probably the best way to figure this one out.....  

 

 

Weather Channel is saying Jim will be located at Wrightsville Beach

Abrams (his sidekick) will be in Wilmington next door.

 

 

 

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No offense to the people living at "ground zero" but I'm trying to figure out what happens to the Chesapeake after landfall.

Is this going to be an "Isabel Redeux?"  I see spaghetti models moving the storm slowly to the west instead of north, up the west side of the Chesapeake as happened with Isabel. Is this likely or are we expecting the storm to track sharply northward after landfall?

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17 minutes ago, Ajax said:

No offense to the people living at "ground zero" but I'm trying to figure out what happens to the Chesapeake after landfall.

Is this going to be an "Isabel Redeux?"  I see spaghetti models moving the storm slowly to the west instead of north, up the west side of the Chesapeake as happened with Isabel. Is this likely or are we expecting the storm to track sharply northward after landfall?

All the predicted paths for Florence suggest pushing water up the Chesapeake just like Isabel. I cannot find any weather people warning this event is likely. Reports are flooding in the lower bay Crisfield over the Hampton Roads.

We are flooded in Annapolis this morning and yesterday closing Compromise Street and the area around the city Dock dockmasters office.

Would not take much rain and south wind to bring the water over the bulkheads. The AYC docks were underwater yesterday morning.

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1 minute ago, Greyhound37 said:

All the predicted paths for Florence suggest pushing water up the Chesapeake just like Isabel. I cannot find any weather people warning this event is likely. Reports are flooding in the lower bay Crisfield over the Hampton Roads.

We are flooded in Annapolis this morning and yesterday closing Compromise Street and the area around the city Dock dockmasters office.

Would not take much rain and south wind to bring the water over the bulkheads. The AYC docks were underwater yesterday morning.

Did someone say rain?

E8662EC1-CE4B-4691-8395-65731755B111.gif

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9 minutes ago, Greyhound37 said:

All the predicted paths for Florence suggest pushing water up the Chesapeake just like Isabel. I cannot find any weather people warning this event is likely. Reports are flooding in the lower bay Crisfield over the Hampton Roads.

We are flooded in Annapolis this morning and yesterday closing Compromise Street and the area around the city Dock dockmasters office.

Would not take much rain and south wind to bring the water over the bulkheads. The AYC docks were underwater yesterday morning.

The reason for flooding on the western shore right now, is because we've had 5 inches of rain in 3 days, combined with non-stop easterly winds and a new moon bringing higher tides.  This will continue all week.

I'm doing ok with the rain, wind and tides but if Flo brings tidal surge with it...

East.jpg

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35 minutes ago, Ajax said:

No offense to the people living at "ground zero" but I'm trying to figure out what happens to the Chesapeake after landfall.

Is this going to be an "Isabel Redeux?"  I see spaghetti models moving the storm slowly to the west instead of north, up the west side of the Chesapeake as happened with Isabel. Is this likely or are we expecting the storm to track sharply northward after landfall?

Yep, and the track is going to bring a strong southerly wind over the open Bay which of course will push water up, along with all the rain.

I dunno if it will rise to the level of Isabel but almost certainly close to that, and possibly much worse. Hate to be an alarmist but the risk is quite real, this storm is approaching from a unique direction

FB- Doug

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Water in the Magothy has been about a foot or so high for a few days because of the winds from east. Boat across the creek has had a flogging genoa for days - presumably furler unrolled. It's behind several houses and makes enough noise am surprised they haven't dealt with it. 

Did the West Marine, Fawcetts, APS drive yesterday. City Dock area was pretty much awash. 

Turned off the power to my pier so my wife doesn't have to figure it out if I'm not back yet. Boats buttoned up and lines out. Anchors brought out into the back yard. If it works like last few big storm surges they will rise straight up on the lifts and come right back down. 

Had chest height water over the pier with Isabel 

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I keep seeing "not much" happening here at Kent Island and I don't believe it. Maryland has had *3 times* the normal rainfall this year already! If we get flat clam wind and 5 inches more rain even that will flood the shit of the place.

I also keep in mind the storm certainly can take the most northerly-westerly version of the track instead of the center, in which case Kent Island is boned :o

I already had to move my dinghy to a vacant slip because the extra high tide was hosing up the lines and it was hitting the dock. Next up is the Whaler, any NE component to the wind funnels waves and water right at it. I might move it to a better slip or more likely I'll haul it home and hope my yard doesn't get deep enough to use it there!

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Patuxent has held at 2 feet above predictions since Saturday and the "coastal Flooding" warning got extended for the Western Shore until tomorrow night.  Seems they extend it on a daily basis.  I'm in a very protected creek with high banks and virtually no fetch so surge is my only real boat concern. My "boathouse" is an old crabber shed so the skiff cant' live on the lift with tide heights more than 5' above MLW.  Basically 3 feet of "surge (1 more than now) and its into the roof so it has to come out this evening and be strung out between pilings to self bail itself through the upcoming deluge.  Probably going to haul the 23' bowrider tonight and let it ride this one out on a trailer.  Sailboat gets doubled lines and power and water to the pier will be shut off.  House sits on a high bank, 27 feet above MLW so I'm not worried about flooding.  

My concern is the house, saturated ground and trees.  I'm in the Critical Area and the house is in the 100' "no disturb" buffer (grandfathered) and surrounded by 100-120' hardwoods that are near impossible to cut down due to environmental regulations.  I'm generally OK with that and enjoy the shade but it does bring risk at times like this.  Irene took down 18 that I had to deal with and more back in the woods.  Depending on wind direction and strength, I could end up with lots of firewood in the living room and bedrooms.  With these soil conditions, we'll sleep at a friend's house if we see more than Cat 1 winds here.  

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48 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

I keep seeing "not much" happening here at Kent Island and I don't believe it. Maryland has had *3 times* the normal rainfall this year already! If we get flat clam wind and 5 inches more rain even that will flood the shit of the place.

I also keep in mind the storm certainly can take the most northerly-westerly version of the track instead of the center, in which case Kent Island is boned :o

I already had to move my dinghy to a vacant slip because the extra high tide was hosing up the lines and it was hitting the dock. Next up is the Whaler, any NE component to the wind funnels waves and water right at it. I might move it to a better slip or more likely I'll haul it home and hope my yard doesn't get deep enough to use it there!

put the whaler in the driveway...you may need it :-(

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Jabins has all three travel lifts running non stop hauling boats. Floating docks were full of boats waiting to be hauled

 

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2 minutes ago, dacapo said:

put the whaler in the driveway...you may need it :-(

 

Make sure it's tied up good!!

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During Isabel a lot of boats were hauled and a lot of them floated off their stands and went all over the place. One crab boat ended up beside the road and after a few days it had a "For Sale As-Is Where-Is" sign on it :lol:

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5 minutes ago, dacapo said:

put the whaler in the driveway...you may need it :-(

That reminds me: during Hugo, we tied up our 16’ McKee Craft runabout to a telephone pole across the street from us in downtown Charleston.  We chocked it in place and knocked out the caster wheel, resting it on the trailer tongue so it would fill up with rainwater.  It worked perfectly and did not budge.  This was a good thing, because we had a beach house on Sullivan’s Island (this was before Sullivan’s became Nantucket South), and we were able to launch and inspect our house the next day - before the National Guard shooed is off the island.

Fast forward a decade, and we did the same thing for Floyd, only the yuppie neighbors who had recently moved to SC freaked out.  It was hard to reason with those neighbors without being condescending, but they weren’t going to move the boat - and again,  thing happened.

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BOATUS just told me no coverage for hauling out YET, but feel free to do it anyway and they *might* cover it if the storm changes course, at which point there will be 0 chance of getting hauled.

I told them that is utterly fucking useless.

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6 minutes ago, jewingiv said:

That reminds me: during Hugo, we tied up our 16’ McKee Craft runabout to a telephone pole across the street from us in downtown Charleston.  We chocked it in place and knocked out the caster wheel, resting it on the trailer tongue so it would fill up with rainwater.  It worked perfectly and did not budge.  This was a good thing, because we had a beach house on Sullivan’s Island (this was before Sullivan’s became Nantucket South), and we were able to launch and inspect our house the next day - before the National Guard shooed is off the island.

Fast forward a decade, and we did the same thing for Floyd, only the yuppie neighbors who had recently moved to SC freaked out.  It was hard to reason with those neighbors without being condescending, but they weren’t going to move the boat - and again,  thing happened.

Irene kicked our ass in NY...went to the YC after the storm was over and found my sunfish floating in the middle of the road.  I retrieved it and sailed my spouse into the clubhouse....I figured it was a safe place and it couldn't get away again ;-)  

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10 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

BOATUS just told me no coverage for hauling out YET, but feel free to do it anyway and they *might* cover it if the storm changes course, at which point there will be 0 chance of getting hauled.

I told them that is utterly fucking useless.

Yes, let's wait until the yards are full. Then we can offer you a reimbursement that is too late to use. Also, we won't be paying for damage to your boat because you left it in the water when a named storm was approaching.

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My thoughts are with all the folk here who live and sail in the path of this storm. Be safe. Get out...boats and property are just things what matters is life, loved ones, neighbors and others who may not have the means or strength to escape the storm, help them. I worry of the thousands who will inevitably be left behind in the evacuation.

Sadly many will stubbornly insist on staying...or are too "proud" to reach out for help.

 

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15 minutes ago, Ajax said:

Yes, let's wait until the yards are full. Then we can offer you a reimbursement that is too late to use. Also, we won't be paying for damage to your boat because you left it in the water when a named storm was approaching.

They called me before one hurricane and asked if I wanted to be hauled. I just laughed at them and said hear that engine, I am on my way to a mooring right now and NO ONE has room to haul out - you are days too late.

 

 

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On 9/7/2018 at 6:03 PM, sidmon said:

Its alll about "The Ridge"

This is from Ryan Maue's twitter feed. He has revolutionized weather model graphics. Following his twitter alone is worth it when these beasts lurk:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

image.png.7e260623db77ff07737b3167b431452f.png

 

As is Joe Bastardi's daily update on weatherbell. His knowledge of tropical cyclones is encyclopedic, and he picks up on nascent patterns before anyone else far more often than not. Click on the "premium" tab here. The daily update is outside the paywall:

https://www.weatherbell.com

 

 

I always wondered why that guy was such a dumbfuck. Then I learned he was Aggy, and now it all makes sense.

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1 hour ago, kent_island_sailor said:

BOATUS just told me no coverage for hauling out YET, but feel free to do it anyway and they *might* cover it if the storm changes course, at which point there will be 0 chance of getting hauled.

I told them that is utterly fucking useless.

It's GEICO insurance, sold through Boat/US.

What would you expect?

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23 hours ago, Kack said:

Went from Cambridge to Harford County yesterday, horrible drive.  Everything is swamped and the Bay was downright angry.  My chainsaw will be ready for this one. 

Up 213 and across 40?   Were the Chester and Sassafras rivers still within their banks?    This storm is worrying me.  My house will be OK - but, north of the James and in the Shenandoah Valley - everything flows north to the Potomac, and we're likely to lose roads, power and get stranded up on the ridge.  My step-mom's been evacuated from Va Beach - family in Cambridge, Chestertown and across the DelMarVa peninsula have cars packed to go if the call comes.  I sincerely hope that this thing peters out, but, it's looking a lot like Agnes when I was a kid. 

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2 minutes ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

  My step-mom's been evacuated from Va Beach -

 

What neighborhood?

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3 minutes ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

Up 213 and across 40?   Were the Chester and Sassafras rivers still within their banks?    This storm is worrying me.  My house will be OK - but, north of the James and in the Shenandoah Valley - everything flows north to the Potomac, and we're likely to lose roads, power and get stranded up on the ridge.  My step-mom's been evacuated from Va Beach - family in Cambridge, Chestertown and across the DelMarVa peninsula have cars packed to go if the call comes.  I sincerely hope that this thing peters out, but, it's looking a lot like Agnes when I was a kid. 

Nah, across 50.  Going to help get the waterfront friends' stuff locked down today.  help anyone who needs it.  Surge might be nasty.  During Isabel the dump trucks were the only thing that could get in up here and evacuate people.  might be busy.

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21 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Navy ships going out - some others coming in.

What I don't get is the huge crowd of anchored ships (green circles). Sure it is more protected than just being anchored out in the Atlantic, but if the storm heads a little north it will be a total bitch to get out of there without hitting one of the other ones or getting blown aground.

mt1.jpg

No kidding - the water's pretty skinny once you get outta the channel off the coast of Cape Charles. 

 

21 hours ago, sidmon said:

Merchant ship owners treat those vessels as disposable. Thats what insurance is for is how they may be looking at it. They are better off at anchor than pierside. Which makes me wonder how many grey boats may join them, or just be stuck pierside at NOB, as the USN is generally broke dick these days and some can't get underway. Sure as hell glad I'm not on an LCS too! Remember a "boomer" couldnt depart Charleston during David in '79 and she just partially submerged into the mud.

But, to your point. What happened in Osaka last week. Be really bad if it happened in the Chesapeake!:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-04/japan-typhoon-sends-2600-tonne-tanker-crashing-into-bridge/10200814

Image result for osaka ship hit bridge

We had a ship banging on the HRBT a few years back - it got folks attention.   Busting either the HRBT or the Bay Bridge Tunnel would cripple tidewater. 

 

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7 minutes ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

How do i hide a post???  Sorry for the double-post, didn't mean to do that. 

At bottom of poeste see; Quote   Edite   Optiones, sllecte Optiones, Hide, Saave.

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33 minutes ago, slap said:

It's GEICO insurance, sold through Boat/US.

What would you expect?

To be fair, they weren't any better years ago. They will pay at the point it is far too late :rolleyes:

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23 minutes ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

Down by Sandbridge

Yeah, it floods there on a random Tuesday, much less a downpour. 

 

The zones are really fucked up though. A lot of zone B is worse than zone A.

 

Where are they heading?

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1 minute ago, doghouse said:

Yeah, it floods there on a random Tuesday, much less a downpour. 

 

The zones are really fucked up though. A lot of zone B is worse than zone A.

 

Where are they heading?

She's in Zone B - and I was a little off, she knows how the flooding goes, and decided to leave when Zone A was given the call. She's headed to my younger brother's place in Richmond - he went down to get her last night - headed out thru Chesapeake and up 460 to avoid the mess on 64.   Since Dad passed about 4 years ago, she decided this summer to sell the house.  I hope it's still there TO sell after this storm passes.   

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25 minutes ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

She's in Zone B - and I was a little off, she knows how the flooding goes, and decided to leave when Zone A was given the call. She's headed to my younger brother's place in Richmond - he went down to get her last night - headed out thru Chesapeake and up 460 to avoid the mess on 64.   Since Dad passed about 4 years ago, she decided this summer to sell the house.  I hope it's still there TO sell after this storm passes.   

Gotcha.

I think it will be fine. To be honest, I think Richmond and west is going to be much, much worse than here. I'm thinking 35 knots of breeze, 6-10" of rain is what we will see. I wouldn't be surprised at 2'+ of rain in the western part of the state, with nowhere for it to go. The rivers will all bust their banks.

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3 minutes ago, doghouse said:

Gotcha.

I think it will be fine. To be honest, I think Richmond and west is going to be much, much worse than here. I'm thinking 35 knots of breeze, 6-10" of rain is what we will see. I wouldn't be surprised at 2'+ of rain in the western part of the state, with nowhere for it to go. The rivers will all bust their banks.

I live in the upper Shenandoah Valley now - and the creeks were overflowing their banks Sunday night. It's subsided some, but, it's still raining, and the Shenandoah's still over it's banks.  I think you're right - we're gonne have some heavy duty flooding. 

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1 minute ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

I live in the upper Shenandoah Valley now - and the creeks were overflowing their banks Sunday night. It's subsided some, but, it's still raining, and the Shenandoah's still over it's banks.  I think you're right - we're gonne have some heavy duty flooding. 

I think so. I am betting this will be like Agnes for us :(

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1 minute ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

I live in the upper Shenandoah Valley now - and the creeks were overflowing their banks Sunday night. It's subsided some, but, it's still raining, and the Shenandoah's still over it's banks.  I think you're right - we're gonne have some heavy duty flooding. 

Yup. Stay safe man.

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When I served on submarines in the Norfolk area, I did the sortie dance a few times.

Submarines operate in 3 dimensions, so they send us all to sea in a box drawn on a chart and they stack us up 3 or 4 deep. Believe me, it sucks to be the guy stuck in the shallow slice of the box.  I've been in the mid layer directly under a hurricane and it still gave me a mild case of the queasies.

 

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1 minute ago, kent_island_sailor said:

I think so. I am betting this will be like Agnes for us :(

Speaking of Agnes - I was 7, and remember thinking how cool it was to have a swimming pool in my living room.  Dacapo has a point in suggesting that you take the Whaler home with ya - during Agnes?   I remember an Uncle coming to the house to get us and take us to my great-grandmother's, she was on the highest piece of ground in Wingate.  Water got up to the door, but, didn't get into her house.   The men were all out on the boats, w/extra fuel, tied up and ready to cut loose and go ride it out so they didn't lose their livelihoods.  

Florence is indeed looking like Agnes - and if she turns right and then comes back in?  She's gonna push a wall of water up the Chesapeake. 

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3 minutes ago, Ajax said:

When I served on submarines in the Norfolk area, I did the sortie dance a few times.

Submarines operate in 3 dimensions, so they send us all to sea in a box drawn on a chart and they stack us up 3 or 4 deep. Believe me, it sucks to be the guy stuck in the shallow slice of the box.  I've been in the mid layer directly under a hurricane and it still gave me a mild case of the queasies.

 

How shallow?  That's interesting the surface conditions propagating below sea level

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7 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

How shallow?  That's interesting the surface conditions propagating below sea level

Deep enough to maintain solid control of the submarine, shallow enough to turn most of the crew green for days.

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1 minute ago, Ajax said:

Deep enough to maintain solid control of the submarine, shallow enough to turn most of the crew green for days.

  Can you grace us with a number? or is that top secret...

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General rule of thumb is that wave motion is pretty negligible at a depth below half the wavelength of the surface waves.  So, if you have a 12 second period wave, the motion would be gone at a depth of about 112m or 370'.  I'm sure Ajax was shallower than that.  

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Latest GFS run is aligning with Euro (surprise). Looking better for Tidewater

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Just now, Raked Aft\\ said:

  Can you grace us with a number? or is that top secret...

Although it's a common public statement that "US submarines are capable of diving to depths greater than 400 feet" I shouldn't give too much detail about actual submarine operations.

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That ECMWF model shows a forecast, through next Tuesday,  of 47.5" of rain for New Hanover County, Wilmington, NC that is.

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4 minutes ago, Ajax said:

Although it's a common public statement that "US submarines are capable of diving to depths greater than 400 feet" I shouldn't give too much detail about actual submarine operations.

  So say i'm out fishing and i don't want to catch a Sub hiding from a hurricane, how deep should my hook be??

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11 minutes ago, Ajax said:

Deep enough to maintain solid control of the submarine, shallow enough to turn most of the crew green for days.

Ughghghg....  And no decks to get fresh air.  You got chops, sir - I don't know if I could stomach that. 

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Central NC

I'm in Durham. Florence's center is projected to pass about 30 miles south of us. It looks like it will be a TS on its way to a TD by the time it's closest to us, early Sunday morning. We're on a hill, so flooding shouldn't be a problem for us. I worry about the wind. Looks like 25 MPH or so on Thursday, a little more Friday, and then the teens on Saturday.

Boat-wise, my boat is in a floating slip on Kerr Lake (NC-VA border, a little west of I-85). I've removed the jib, doubled lines, and lashed the mainsail. If the floating docks stay in one piece, I should be OK.

I walked along the dock adjacent to ours, where there are some orphans. If one broke loose, it could drift onto us. A Capri 25 (with water in the cockpit) had extremely rotten lines, so rotten, that I ran a line through its towing eye and made it fast to a cleat. At 69 years old, I am still amazed at how slack and dumb some people are. I sent an email to our marina owner with a list of the boats that looked sketchy.

Weather Channel v Winfinder.com: I've noticed some significant differences in the wind forecasts from these two sources. Anybody have any thoughts, opinions?

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For all who are in the target zone, good luck and stay safe.  

This time last year was my turn to evacuate down in FL.    We dodged a bullet in the Tampa Bay area, but it looks like you got a much angrier weather engine coming at you than we did, and it may lose its directional intent once near to on shore, adding to the damage.

- Stumbling

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2 minutes ago, Grande Mastere Dreade said:

hiatlsat.gif

 

maybe if we angle that african coast a little more and fair it up a bit , we wouldn't get so many vortexes coming off the trailing edge..

Nothing a belt sander and some fart rock can't fix!

- Stumbling

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3 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

They called me before one hurricane and asked if I wanted to be hauled. I just laughed at them and said hear that engine, I am on my way to a mooring right now and NO ONE has room to haul out - you are days too late.

 

 

i know some people higher up the food chain for Boat US...I can give a call....if you want

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4 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

BOATUS just told me no coverage for hauling out YET, but feel free to do it anyway and they *might* cover it if the storm changes course, at which point there will be 0 chance of getting hauled.

I told them that is utterly fucking useless.

Strange. I'm in the West River; called them yesterday morning and they said no coverage, so I called them from my dinghy right after the 5PM Hurricane Center update and they approved the claim and sent me a claim # immediately. Boat was hauled this morning. Is it because the cone changed with today's updates? 

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30 min  ago - (bolding mine)

Hurricane #Florence is currently a 130-mph Category 4 hurricane. After completing an eyewall replacement cycle this morning, it will likely intensify further and possibly into a Category 5 hurricane later today or tonight. Florence will then make landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border as either a Category 3 or 4 hurricane Thursday night/Friday morning. Storm surge is a big threat, and water levels have already been rising. The worst of the surge is currently forecast to be from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout where 6-12 feet of inundation is expected. Heavy rain and flash flooding will be another major threat, both at the coast and inland. Some towns may receive over 3 feet of rain between now and early-next week as Florence stalls inland due to weak steering winds. Lastly, the strongest of winds will t