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Isabel was also a 2 when she came ashore but several days prior had been a Cat 5 with the strongest recorded winds (233 mph) on record for an Atlantic hurricane. My point here is once a storm reaches the size and intensity of a Cat 4 or 5 storm, even if the wind speed reduces to Cat 2/3 status prior to or near landfall it is still a major hurricane and appropriate caution should be taken.

Most of eastern NC is low lying and large parts of I-95 flood in heavy storms; I would get out now or risk not being able to evacuate at all.

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2 hours ago, Bull City said:

Central NC

I'm in Durham. Florence's center is projected to pass about 30 miles south of us. It looks like it will be a TS on its way to a TD by the time it's closest to us, early Sunday morning. We're on a hill, so flooding shouldn't be a problem for us. I worry about the wind. Looks like 25 MPH or so on Thursday, a little more Friday, and then the teens on Saturday.

Boat-wise, my boat is in a floating slip on Kerr Lake (NC-VA border, a little west of I-85). I've removed the jib, doubled lines, and lashed the mainsail. If the floating docks stay in one piece, I should be OK.

I walked along the dock adjacent to ours, where there are some orphans. If one broke loose, it could drift onto us. A Capri 25 (with water in the cockpit) had extremely rotten lines, so rotten, that I ran a line through its towing eye and made it fast to a cleat. At 69 years old, I am still amazed at how slack and dumb some people are. I sent an email to our marina owner with a list of the boats that looked sketchy.

Weather Channel v Winfinder.com: I've noticed some significant differences in the wind forecasts from these two sources. Anybody have any thoughts, opinions?

I'm glad you chimed in -- I remember you being in NC, and was wondering how you might fare.  Good luck & stay safe to all in the path.

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9 minutes ago, samc99us said:

Isabel was also a 2 when she came ashore but several days prior had been a Cat 5 with the strongest recorded winds (233 mph) on record for an Atlantic hurricane. My point here is once a storm reaches the size and intensity of a Cat 4 or 5 storm, even if the wind speed reduces to Cat 2/3 status prior to or near landfall it is still a major hurricane and appropriate caution should be taken.

Most of eastern NC is low lying and large parts of I-95 flood in heavy storms; I would get out now or risk not being able to evacuate at all.

Don't forget that Sandy was not technically a hurricane when it hit NJ/NY and look at the damage it did.

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

Thanks for the update, I just checked in to see if there is an updated track and surge forecast for our area.

We have been preparing to evacuate, and I am leaning strongly towards going. First time in my life. I'm reluctant because we may have a long difficult time getting back in, and I know a lot of people here that are staying no matter what. OTOH if we go, and it's smashed flat, I can come and rebuild. There is nothing here worth getting dying for.

FB- Doug

Assuming you’ve done all you can already, it really makes no sense to stay. Very little you can do in the height of a storm like this without risking life and/or limb anyway. Bug out dude. 

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

Thanks for the update, I just checked in to see if there is an updated track and surge forecast for our area.

We have been preparing to evacuate, and I am leaning strongly towards going. First time in my life. I'm reluctant because we may have a long difficult time getting back in, and I know a lot of people here that are staying no matter what. OTOH if we go, and it's smashed flat, I can come and rebuild. There is nothing here worth getting dying for.

FB- Doug

What town/city are you near ?....if surge is not an issue and ones elevation is good along with a block structure staying while a harrowing experience  allows for protecting property during the storm mopping etc as well as immediately after the height of the storm passes...oh my #1 tip...2 or 3 large contractor bags inside one another filled with water  inside garbage cans secured inside a garage or against a wall....gives you plenty of potable water in the aftermath....#2 leaving vehicles in parking garages

 

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41515109_10211345269581241_5560492320438

This was this morning in Wingate, southern Dorchester Co,  MD ( halfway up the bay about 30 miles east of KIS and a bit south).   Rain and tides have the ground underwater.  My uncle went down to help another family member yank a boat and drag it to Cambridge. 

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^ ugh

gonna suck in your part of the word. Stay safe

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5 hours ago, doghouse said:

I always wondered why that guy was such a dumbfuck. Then I learned he was Aggy, and now it all makes sense.

Gent picked up on the seasonal pattern in April with expecting a major east coast hit.

And he also pegged Florence as a Carolinas threat a full week before anyone else.

You can go back and look what he forecast.

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5 minutes ago, sidmon said:

Gent picked up on the seasonal pattern in April with expecting a major east coast hit.

And he also pegged Florence as a Carolinas threat a full week before anyone else.

You can go back and look what he forecast.

His record over the years is in line any of the other meteos, no more no less. He is an average forecaster. And he says truck loads of utterly stupid shit.

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16 minutes ago, doghouse said:

His record over the years is in line any of the other meteos, no more no less. He is an average forecaster. And he says truck loads of utterly stupid shit.

Opinions assholes. All that...

He makes it a point to put his forecasts up for all to see. Good or Bad.

Bottom line: Bastardi totally nailed this one.

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Stay safe guys, look after each other, and remember, everything you own will one day be junk; sometimes sooner than you would like. Nothing you own is worth risking your life for.

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Purple "pleasure craft" is gone, presumably hightailed it south. Lots of grey ones headed south, preferring to wait out Florence in Florida to going north of Bermuda? Variously labelled "US GOV VESSEL" or "Unspecified ship".

Florence.tiff

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4 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

image.png.f46449451d62e91181a798b77ea76e3e.png

Holy Shit ! ... I hope they made radio contact .... hopefully shipping traffic can be sent their way and give them an option to scuttle and board the ship 

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1 minute ago, Rasputin22 said:

image.png.f46449451d62e91181a798b77ea76e3e.png

Oops!  But it's so sunny right now!

(nice of the plane crew to give 'em a heads up, but no kudos to the id-jit blow boater.  Dang! It only takes a few to make everyone look bad...)

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2 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Holy Shit ! ... I hope they made radio contact 

If they hadn't, how would they know about the lack of knowledge?

For all of you that might be affected by Florence, you truly are in my thoughts (atheist here so no prayers).  I can't imagine the helplessness of watching this monster approach in slow motion knowing the danger it poses and the damage it likely will cause.  Please be safe and I am sure it goes without saying, but make sure your animals are cared for.  Best wishes for a better than expected outcome.  

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Marine traffic wind and speed have the wind at 85 -95 mph. 

Good luck guys and girls and stay safe

53BEFEB0-7810-46DB-9F38-A5CB4FE7965A.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, Veeger said:

Oops!  But it's so sunny right now!

(nice of the plane crew to give 'em a heads up, but no kudos to the id-jit blow boater.  Dang! It only takes a few to make everyone look bad...)

They had NO IDEA?   Wow.  Offshore in the Atlantic in Sept and they don't turn on a radio once a day?

Assuming they are somewhere on a line from Florence to Savannah, I hope they are a lot closer to the coast.  

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2 minutes ago, evenflow said:

Navy is heading out to sea, hopefully they can rescue these folks.  

So put a Navy ship with hundreds of servicemen aboard at risk to save some idiots.  I hope not.  

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5 minutes ago, evenflow said:

Navy is heading out to sea, hopefully they can rescue these folks.  

Perhaps one of the Subs can surface along side of them and offer an option. :o 

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or at least offer them some Grey Poupon

 

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2 minutes ago, Bump-n-Grind said:

or at least offer them some Grey Poupon

 

I would like to hunt down and main whoever wrote that frickin' ad-that-will-not-die.  

Or drop him on that lonesome sailboat.  

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1 hour ago, CruiserJim said:

They had NO IDEA?   Wow.  Offshore in the Atlantic in Sept and they don't turn on a radio once a day?

Assuming they are somewhere on a line from Florence to Savannah, I hope they are a lot closer to the coast.  

Its is Sept 11 for Christsake!!!!!

If your are deep blue water in the Atlantic today, and you are not staying on top of the tropical situation, then you are a REAL DUMBASS.

 And a frontrunner Darwin Award contestant for being out there in the first place.

Image result for hurricane season graph

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4 hours ago, Sean said:

Assuming you’ve done all you can already, it really makes no sense to stay. Very little you can do in the height of a storm like this without risking life and/or limb anyway. Bug out dude. 

Doug,

Hope you are considering the “bug out” option. Not sure your part of paradise will get this level of water, but the stress of dealing with whatever ends of coming in is not worth it. Take your lovely wife and go on a little trip. It is worth the aggrivation of trying to get back in after the weather event. Do not know how impacted you were in Irene, but that will be minimal compared to this.

stay safe and look forward to pictures and a positive report once the weather all passes.

B9A27AF2-78FD-406C-8515-9AA646F59283.jpeg

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Bait, 

Thanks for posting but that is one scary map.  I hope everyone heeds the evacuation orders.  I'm hoping Mother Nature blinks and things change for the better for all affected.  

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Anyone have an idea of the boats position relative to Flo's track?  Agree on not putting other vessels or their crew in Jeopardy trying  to rescue idiots.... it's called hurricane season for a reason.

Hopefully they make it out of the worst of it but she is Big.........hope the boats up for 70 knots plus for a few days.......

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For my edification can someone please give brief explanation of this "no haulout, haulout /cover, no cover / no claim, claim" thing re marine insurance and official hurricane strength in lead up?

 

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Just now, Kevlar Edge said:

This is getting ugly 

Life is ugley Petey, we cane onley try.                  :)

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@Steam Flyer

 

PM me if you need a place. Our old Durham house is empty and you can camp indoors as long as you need it. Listing for sale in a few weeks. Needs some paint work if you need to keep busy, brushes provided. 

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40 minutes ago, Snaggletooth said:

Life is ugley Petey, we cane onley try.                  :)

I ageee. You can lead a horse to water but..............

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Just now, Kevlar Edge said:

I ageee You can lead a horse to water but..............

Shit, don't leave us hanging...what did you do to that poor horse when you got it to water/

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In Australia we have the Darwin Awards for people like this. I honestly hope they are ok but come on we live in the digital age.!

https://darwinawards.com/

Some incredible stories of people accidentally killing themselves. 

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a bit of levity in a tense situation:

 

Wife got a text from a co-worker who had gone to Walmart to get emergency supplies this afternoon.

she sent pictures of all the food isles being completely bare.  I mean zippo on the shelves.

EXCEPT for the vegan section which was fully stocked.

Her remark after the photo "So it seems folks would rather starve to death than eat vegan.."    ;<)

YMMV

 

forever

 

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h

2 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:
3 minutes ago, Kevlar Edge said:

I ageee You can lead a horse to water but..............

Shit, don't leave us hanging...what did you do to that poor horse when you got it to water/

whacked hime with grommette mallotte tille he dracke!

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Just now, Foreverslow said:

Her remark after the photo "So it seems folks would rather starve to death than eat a vegan.."    ;<)

I rissearve rite to macke dessione aftere I see herre.                   :)

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4 minutes ago, Snaggletooth said:

I rissearve rite to macke dessione aftere I see herre.                   :)

Calm down, I don't think her name was Vegan.  

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17 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

In Australia we have the Darwin Awards for people like this. I honestly hope they are ok but come on we live in the digital age.!

https://darwinawards.com/

Some incredible stories of people accidentally killing themselves. 

Umm, they have that all over the world not just Australia

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12 minutes ago, DarthSailor said:

Umm, they have that all over the world not just Australia

Yes, but Australians are the stars of the show. ;-)

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3 hours ago, Sail4beer said:

Marine traffic wind and speed have the wind at 85 -95 mph. 

Good luck guys and girls and stay safe

53BEFEB0-7810-46DB-9F38-A5CB4FE7965A.jpeg

Which raises a question for me, an offshore weather newbie.

How come on this GRIB only shows currently winds around 40 kts!  And its forecast winds at landfall at around 50 kts?  I mean, I get that their are limitations of GRIBS, computer-generated forecasts - but this just seems totally off compared to what national weather offices are saying about Florence?  What’s the deal?  Why is this GRIB, just downloaded, so different?!

 

385DB4F9-51A1-4679-967E-85294F43A7F1.png

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4 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Which raises a question for me, an offshore weather newbie.

How come this GRIB only shows currently winds around 40 kts!? And its forecast winds at landfall in a few days at around 50 kts?  I mean, I get that their are limitations of GRIBS, computer-generated forecasts - but this just seems compleyely and totally off compared to what national weather offices are saying about Florence.  What’s the deal?  Why is this GRIB, just downloaded, so different?!

NHC says at 2100Z max sustained winds 120 kts

 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAPWSAT1.shtml

 

385DB4F9-51A1-4679-967E-85294F43A7F1.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

 

I can’t see on my phone but , are the higher wind speeds in kilometers per hour?

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3 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

I can’t see on my phone but , are the higher wind speeds in kilometers per hour?

They’re knots.

The US NHC most recent wind speed post on Florence says 120 kts sustained. ( https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAPWSAT1.shtml) The GRIB I downloaded shows nowhere near that, at 40 kts.

A trifle alarming, if I was relying on that for info.

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7 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

I can’t see on my phone but , are the higher wind speeds in kilometers per hour?

Might want to check your math.  1kt = .5m/s.  I've never heard of wind in km/s, but 1 km/s would be 2000kts.  

 

Edit:  Sorry, km/hr are even a worse measure and my math is right but for a km/hr, it would be about .6kts.  

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8 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

How come on this GRIB only shows currently winds around 40 kts!  And its forecast winds at landfall at around 50 kts?  I mean, I get that their are limitations of GRIBS, computer-generated forecasts - but this just seems totally off compared to what national weather offices are saying about Florence?  What’s the deal?  Why is this GRIB, just downloaded, so different?!

GRIB is just a container. I think the problem you have is that you're looking at the wrong scale. Your phone may be downloading a very coarse grid where each record is the average of a very large area. You can get higher resolution / larger scale / smaller area GRIBS.

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1 minute ago, SailBlueH2O said:

 

Dumbest unit of measure I've ever seen.  For me, I have to convert twice to put it into sailor's terms, but I do stand corrected.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Dumbest unit of measure I've ever seen.  For me, I have to convert twice to put it into sailor's terms, but I do stand corrected.  

Youre avattare ist fuckeng perfectte!   Juste sayeng.....      :)     

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11 minutes ago, Snaggletooth said:

Youre avattare ist fuckeng perfectte!   Juste sayeng.....      :)     

Regrettably, yes. But it is, you know, a sacrifice required for the future of the human race. I hasten to add that since each man will be required to do prodigious... service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature.

 

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Don’t mean to seem like an avatar buster, but due to the circumstances 

5A658DD6-541B-4ADB-9643-ACF98556C601.jpeg

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Got that right. He’s getting the hell out!!!

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21 minutes ago, weightless said:

GRIB is just a container. I think the problem you have is that you're looking at the wrong scale. Your phone may be downloading a very coarse grid where each record is the average of a very large area. You can get higher resolution / larger scale / smaller area GRIBS.

Thanks.  Didn’t know that.

Even if I zoom in as far as possible, and put cursor on darkest (I.e., highest wind speed) part of GRIB, still shows about 40 kts.  Must be that it has downloaded a very coarse grid, as you say.  Still, somewhat alarming if one didn’t know, and relied on such...

8A3B264A-B591-47A1-94FC-FC8FA2CE725B.png

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I haven't followed weather modeling for many, many years.  But, the GRIB is failing you.  Could it be that they don't incorporate the soundings the hurricane hunters provide which IS the information.  I suspect I'm right and I'm not that sharp. 

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9 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

 Must be that it has downloaded a very coarse grid, as you say.  Still, somewhat alarming if one didn’t know, and relied on such...

Yes, check your settings. You should have options to download various models at various resolutions (often given in kilometers or decimal degrees). There are special hi res models for various areas of interest. Sometimes you'll see the term meso-scale for hi res  weather models. Hurricanes have their own hi res models eg. HWRF, HMON, etc. It's up to the user to pick the proper chart in the proper scale. 

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49 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Which raises a question for me, an offshore weather newbie.

How come on this GRIB only shows currently winds around 40 kts!  And its forecast winds at landfall at around 50 kts?  I mean, I get that their are limitations of GRIBS, computer-generated forecasts - but this just seems totally off compared to what national weather offices are saying about Florence?  What’s the deal?  Why is this GRIB, just downloaded, so different?!

 

385DB4F9-51A1-4679-967E-85294F43A7F1.png

You are comparing it to virtually real time system specific forecasts with much higher resolution. The grib is a small resolution forecast up to 12 hours old plus modelling time from receipt of real time data/sat pics etc. 

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1 hour ago, SailBlueH2O said:

A74F6C51-8EA0-4F72-A4BD-20DB1A4DF7C9.jpeg

Its like Silent Bob says, if you throw enough Ketchup on it.....

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GRIBs like GFS/ECMWF etc. do not accurately show hurricane force winds. Simple as that. The mesh isn't fine enough. It's a well known issue.

Right now I think GFS is 0.25 DEGREES (and they only switched to that in 2015 I just read)

0.25 degrees = 15 nautical miles. That's the size of the individual cell the calculations are being done in. So the really strong winds of the hurricane are only in a 3x3 or 2x2 bunch of cells. Not enough to capture a hurricane.

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3 minutes ago, Zonker said:

GRIBs like GFS/ECMWF etc. do not accurately show hurricane force winds. Simple as that. The mesh isn't fine enough. It's a well known issue.

Right now I think GFS is 0.25 DEGREES (and they only switched to that in 2015 I just read)

0.25 degrees = 15 nautical miles. That's the size of the individual cell the calculations are being done in. So the really strong winds of the hurricane are only in a 3x3 or 2x2 bunch of cells. Not enough to capture a hurricane.

Does the GRIB include aircraft observations or just buoys wherever they can get them?  I don't know.  

 

PS. Is the resolution tied to computing time which is the excuse used by NWS in the late 70's.  Is anything computer-limited anymore?

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GRIB is just grided binary. It's a generic term for a type of database. The details of how big the data cells are, what shape they are what data they hold, the compression used and so on are quite flexible. The user needs to select the best product for their needs. If you're looking at hurricanes all of the hurricane models are released in one of the various GRIB formats. This chart is produced from a GRIB of the GFS of Florence:

gfs_mslp_wind_06L_1.png

If you use a hi res hurricane model you get this:

hwrf_mslp_wind_06L_1.png

To see the gribs this was made from look here:

http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hur/prod/hmon.2018091118/

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

For my edification can someone please give brief explanation of this "no haulout, haulout /cover, no cover / no claim, claim" thing re marine insurance and official hurricane strength in lead up?

 

My insurance company will not pay for a haul until my boat is inside the watch/warning cone. At that point there is *less than zero* possibility that any yard would have any ability to haul the boat. So it is basically freaking useless coverage (hey we pay for hurricane haulout - well not really). If I haul out AND the hurricane warning cone ends up here, they will pay me, but if it doesn't they won't.

On another note, I think all insurance companies should refuse to pay for sails and canvas left up during names storms. Might motivate the dumbasses that do 0 prep.

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7 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

My insurance company will not pay for a haul until my boat is inside the watch/warning cone. At that point there is *less than zero* possibility that any yard would have any ability to haul the boat. So it is basically freaking useless coverage (hey we pay for hurricane haulout - well not really). If I haul out AND the hurricane warning cone ends up here, they will pay me, but if it doesn't they won't.

On another note, I think all insurance companies should refuse to pay for sails and canvas left up during names storms. Might motivate the dumbasses that do 0 prep.

KIS, 

So, and I hope not, let's say your boat is a total loss as it looks like many will be.  What do you expect from your insurance company.  And to broaden it a bit (apologies), homeowner's requires some kind of hurricane percentage on damage?  The important thing is life of all forms but I hope people don't get fucked on insurance.  

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39 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

My insurance company will not pay for a haul until my boat is inside the watch/warning cone. At that point there is *less than zero* possibility that any yard would have any ability to haul the boat. So it is basically freaking useless coverage (hey we pay for hurricane haulout - well not really). If I haul out AND the hurricane warning cone ends up here, they will pay me, but if it doesn't they won't....

Thanks Kent. So it is essentially a "pre-approval" for haulout cost claims once it exceeds the storm intensity threshold in the policy. That being the case I assume if you haulout at your own cost/risk and it does exceed the intensity threshold they will still accept and process a claim?

I'm therefore a bit perplexed why people don't do that to avoid the inevitable yard log jam, particularly in areas subject to high storm surge where on-water damage risk is so much higher. 

I don't know this area of the US but assume yards are well set up with sufficient area, props and tie downs etc to handle the demand. That said sounds like a potential domino outcome of they are all crambed in close and a couple of boats happen to go down? Do any incorporate pits to reduce windage and propping failure etc to address this risk?

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

I don't know this area of the US but assume yards are well set up with sufficient area, props and tie downs etc to handle the demand. That said sounds like a potential domino outcome of they are all crambed in close and a couple of boats happen to go down?

Hah, stay tuned.

Best yard setups still can’t handle Cat 3-4’s.

Dominos & the rest downwind in the marsh stacked 3 high.

Good luck folks.

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12 minutes ago, blunderfull said:

Hah, stay tuned.

Best yard setups still can’t handle Cat 3-4’s.

Dominos & the rest downwind in the marsh stacked 3 high.

Good luck folks.

You sound happy, people are going to lose boats/houses/lives and you want to claim one upsmanship.  You are the worst. 

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3 hours ago, Sean said:

Yes, but Australians are the stars of the show. ;-)

Actually the stats say otherwise..! Australia are not the stars. We'll leave it at that? Hope the boat is ok? 

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To clear up one item, Navy ALWAYS sends everyone out, biggies safer at sea than at home, they usually can outrun path and go perpendicular, unless under orders. 

Insurance, well, you get what you pay for, and haul out costs$$$$  our locals charge 5$ a foot, just to get on the list, thats just to get in the door, you still have to pay OT haul and storage, we have been fully booked for almost a week I think.  That's why you choose a marina that can get you through wet.  Have one 30' at a hurricane rated marina and my other 2 23' and 28' behind my house on multiple anchors and shore backups.  Water life, even standing still takes planning and execution. Still very much hoping for a hard left turn (sorry SC, no ill will)   Someday we will all get hit.

As for the AssHats out in the Atlantic, someone looks out for fools and drunks, and as a sailor, they are bound to be covered by one of those, if not both...:-)

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30 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Thanks Kent. So it is essentially a "pre-approval" for haulout cost claims once it exceeds the storm intensity threshold in the policy. That being the case I assume if you haulout at your own cost/risk and it does exceed the intensity threshold they will still accept and process a claim?

I'm therefore a bit perplexed why people don't do that to avoid the inevitable yard log jam, particularly in areas subject to high storm surge where on-water damage risk is so much higher. 

I don't know this area of the US but assume yards are well set up with sufficient area, props and tie downs etc to handle the demand. That said sounds like a potential domino outcome of they are all crambed in close and a couple of boats happen to go down? Do any incorporate pits to reduce windage and propping failure etc to address this risk?

You'd think the insurance companies would want to minimise their risk? I know my automotive insurance company now warns me of possible hail in my area with the hope I move my vehicle to an area of cover. Pro-active insurance vs Re-active.....! 

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25 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

My insurance company will not pay for a haul until my boat is inside the watch/warning cone. At that point there is *less than zero* possibility that any yard would have any ability to haul the boat. So it is basically freaking useless coverage (hey we pay for hurricane haulout - well not really). If I haul out AND the hurricane warning cone ends up here, they will pay me, but if it doesn't they won't.

On another note, I think all insurance companies should refuse to pay for sails and canvas left up during names storms. Might motivate the dumbasses that do 0 prep.

11 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

KIS, 

So, and I hope not, let's say your boat is a total loss as it looks like many will be.  What do you expect from your insurance company.  And to broaden it a bit (apologies), homeowner's requires some kind of hurricane percentage on damage?  The important thing is life of all forms but I hope people don't get fucked on insurance.  

I am confused by the implication that the insurance co will only pay if you are in the Cone, most insurance policy wording is based upon what "a normal and prudent person would do"

Given the circumstances I would haul anyway and perhaps argue the point later.

Hauling is no guarantee that you avoid damage, have seen cradles with boats attached carried by storm surges while others blow over and then play dominoes with others nearby.

If you are out of time:

All sails off, all dodgers and covers off, anything on deck that can be removed like dorade vents off and capped.

The furler tethered so it cannot rotate (which is good even when you leave the sail on, we have all seen a sail unfurled in a breeze somewhere),

Double or triple dock lines (do not use sheets as they will shock load cleats- best to have stretchy lines) and remember to allow for chafe and storm surges, if you run out of cleats take extra docklines to winches and make sure they are hitched or the lines cannot fall out of self tailers,  run difficult leads thru snatch blocks if you have any on board.

If you have any anchors lay them out using a dinghy and remembering storm surge, and remember the wind direction will change with the hurricane passing through.

All non essential shit of the boat.

Important:

Take lots of photos of the vessel, to show its "before condition" and the steps taken to  mitigate the loss.

And take lots of individual photos of engines, serial numbers like engine and HIN, tools, navigation gear and anything of value attached to the vessel.

This will make any insurance claim a lot simpler.

People that do nothing (like they are hoping a hurricane takes out their POS) are always viewed dimly by Insurers and it is noted, if an Insurer can prove that you did nothing to mitigate the loss and lets face it this one just didn't pop up suddenly you may have some explaining to do before the insurers payout.

Have seen first hand the effects of Hugo, Andrew fortunately boat was in Lauderdale and Bob (Marthas Vineyard) plus a few other blows at sea so take it as my ten cents worth.

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All great advice above.  Thanks Navig8tor.  

 

Wish everyone the best.  Be safe.  

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1 hour ago, kent_island_sailor said:

On another note, I think all insurance companies should refuse to pay for sails and canvas left up during names storms. Might motivate the dumbasses that do 0 prep.

 

36 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

You'd think the insurance companies would want to minimise their risk? I know my automotive insurance company now warns me of possible hail in my area with the hope I move my vehicle to an area of cover. Pro-active insurance vs Re-active.....! 

I'm sure the marine Insurance industry have the stats, but in my experience a large proportion of claims are consequential in severe events caused by inexperienced and ill-prepared 3rd parties impact on others who are well set up. So yes strange you don't see more proactive efforts on behalf of insurers to reduce risk and insurance pricing.

The best example I have seen is some marinas and fixed mooring operators incorporate in their client agreements a damage mitigation provision. On receipt of a warning by the operator via email/text, if a vessel is not properly secured and prepared by the cutoff time the operator does so as a client cost, irrespective of outcome and with an indemnity. 

I suspect that has the effect of lowering premiums for the operator in terms of their own assets and for anyone using them as their nominated mooring.

The "hip-pocket" is always the best stick for some people who don't like carrots.

 

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8 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

I

9 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

The best example I have seen is some marinas and fixed mooring operators incorporate in their client agreements a damage mitigation provision. On receipt of a warning by the operator via email/text, if a vessel is not properly secured and prepared by the cutoff time the operator does so as a client cost, irrespective of outcome and with an indemnity. 

 

A+++ to that and I hope they use their usual storm shop rate of $200/hr.  

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Windy now shows Florence hanging a hard left along the coast of NC and heading down the SC coast almost to Hilton Head??  Is this just some model noise or ???

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2 minutes ago, CruiserJim said:

Windy now shows Florence hanging a hard left along the coast of NC and heading down the SC coast almost to Hilton Head??  Is this just some model noise or ???

Storms like  these do not turn that abruptly.  I'm guessing a fall out of one or more sensors.  This monster is coming.  

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9 minutes ago, CruiserJim said:

Windy now shows Florence hanging a hard left along the coast of NC and heading down the SC coast almost to Hilton Head??  Is this just some model noise or ???

Models are trying to figure out what to do with an upper level H to the West that Florence may encounter as it makes landfall. The clockwise winds on it's east side would tend to carry Florence S but the details aren't clear. Levi discusses it in the last Tropicaltidbits.com video posted above.

AL06_2018091112_ECENS_0-120h_large.png

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Thanks Kent. So it is essentially a "pre-approval" for haulout cost claims once it exceeds the storm intensity threshold in the policy. That being the case I assume if you haulout at your own cost/risk and it does exceed the intensity threshold they will still accept and process a claim?

I'm therefore a bit perplexed why people don't do that to avoid the inevitable yard log jam, particularly in areas subject to high storm surge where on-water damage risk is so much higher. 

I don't know this area of the US but assume yards are well set up with sufficient area, props and tie downs etc to handle the demand. That said sounds like a potential domino outcome of they are all crambed in close and a couple of boats happen to go down? Do any incorporate pits to reduce windage and propping failure etc to address this risk?

A few reasons:

1. There is no possible way every boat can be hauled out. The yards and room to store them do not exist.

2. It would make hurricane season incredibly expensive some years.

3. In many cases the boat is safer in the water. Not only do you need a haulout, you need a yard with a hill. The low lying yards will just get your boat relaunched for free  :rolleyes:

 

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5 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

KIS, 

So, and I hope not, let's say your boat is a total loss as it looks like many will be.  What do you expect from your insurance company.  And to broaden it a bit (apologies), homeowner's requires some kind of hurricane percentage on damage?  The important thing is life of all forms but I hope people don't get fucked on insurance.  

Well I am 99% sure my boat will not be a total loss. She has been through many hurricanes before and we know how to secure her. If somehow the worst happens I expect the insurance to cover the claim just like any other.

The issue with homeowner's is flood insurance. What tends to happen is areas way out of the flood zones get flooded and these people don't have flood insurance 99.9% of the time.

EDIT - just checked the forecast and it looks better than last weekend. For now. NC still going to get it :(

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9 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

Shit, don't leave us hanging...what did you do to that poor horse when you got it to water/

The horse is an asshole so I left him there by himself to figure out what to do with the water 

 

just heard from my daughter, they shut down UNC till Monday 

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1 hour ago, kent_island_sailor said:
7 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

KIS, 

So, and I hope not, let's say your boat is a total loss as it looks like many will be.  What do you expect from your insurance company.  And to broaden it a bit (apologies), homeowner's requires some kind of hurricane percentage on damage?  The important thing is life of all forms but I hope people don't get fucked on insurance.  

Well I am 99% sure my boat will not be a total loss. She has been through many hurricanes before and we know how to secure her. If somehow the worst happens I expect the insurance to cover the claim just like any other.

The issue with homeowner's is flood insurance. What tends to happen is areas way out of the flood zones get flooded and these people don't have flood insurance 99.9% of the time.

EDIT - just checked the forecast and it looks better than last weekend. For now. NC still going to get it :(

Biggest thing is to understand your policy and what it covers. 

For boats after a big hurricane, it seems insurers are really just interested in processing the claims and getting it over. Issues seem to surround valuation as “actual cash value” in this market is a lot lower than most owners would like to think it is.  Helps to have an “agreed value” policy. I don’t think many insurers are going spend thousands  to argue about mitigation on a 4 ktsb. Probably much different if you are talking a multimillion dollar payout. 

For homeowners, a big problem last time (Irene) was insurers slipping in “hurricane deductibles” at a significant percentage of the insured property value, including land.  Land is more than 2/3 of the total value for a lot of waterfront places so a 20% deductible can be 60% of the structure value. After Irene, some friends discovered that they had an $85K deductible and about $90K in damages. My insurance company doesn’t have a hurricane deductible so I had a $1k deductible on something like $85K in damage. Huge difference. Again  know what your policy says.

My final hurricane prep, after canvas, lines, etc, is to pour 2 fingers of scotch and read my insurance policy.  

 

 

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Nasty. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/09/11/646790793/hog-farmers-scramble-to-drain-waste-pools-ahead-of-hurricane-florence

Hog Farmers Scramble to Drain Waste Pools Ahead Of Hurricane Florence

Excerpt -

Just inland from the North Carolina coast, right in the path of Hurricane Florence, there's an area where there are many more pigs than people. Each big hog farm has one or more open-air "lagoons" filled with manure, and some could be vulnerable to flooding if the hurricane brings as much rain as feared.

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