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While models have improved, average 5 day track error is over 200 miles.  Add in 150 mile radius for TS level winds and at 5 days, you are looking at 700 miles of risk, more in cases like this one where the models are all over the place more than 3-4 days out.  Just how far up and down the coast do you want to require folks to strip canvas and haul out to "earn" insurance coverage?  How many times per season?  

Where I am (near Solomons MD), the yards can handle less than 1/2 of the local boats for a scheduled winter haul out and that's mast up and stands on soil/gravel. With 1 travel lift (normally) per yard, they can do fewer in the 3-4 day window before a storm.  Those co-located with a marina generally provide preference to slip holders so non slip holders go on a waiting list that never gets hauled.  Same or worse in most areas that have mild winters where there is no ice hazard and boats often haul for bottom paint and maintenance and then go back in the water.  My boat is 42' and 20,000 lbs.  There are 4  yards that can haul me in the harbor, 3 of those are marinas who give slip holder preference.  The 4th is a small private yard that can haul 4-5 boats per day max.  I'm in a wide private slip in a protected creek with limited fetch.  I'm better off there with doubled storm lines

No easy answers.  

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30 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

The morning after Hurricane David was supposed to hit Miami 1979...went to bed wanting to get some sleep...woke up due to the silence when it was about the time it should have been raging outside....the hurricane turn north just before landfall hitting Palm Beach area

I remember that too. I grew up in Miami, and lived there until 1980. We had an Alberg Typhoon on a mooring at CGSC. I had a trailer, and hauled it home (interesting story in itself) and we had some friends stay with us, as they lived in a low lying area off Old Cutler Road.

What a massive relief it was the next morning.

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10 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

On another note, I think all insurance companies should refuse to pay for sails and canvas left up during names storms. Might motivate the dumbasses that do 0 prep.

+1

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3 minutes ago, LarryE said:

Where on Key Biscayne? Just can't place it.

Pretty girl.

She is still pretty after putting up with me for nearly 45 years ...

KBD.jpg

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18 minutes ago, Bull City said:

I remember that too. I grew up in Miami, and lived there until 1980. We had an Alberg Typhoon on a mooring at CGSC. I had a trailer, and hauled it home (interesting story in itself) and we had some friends stay with us, as they lived in a low lying area off Old Cutler Road.

What a massive relief it was the next morning.

RIP...Robert Clarendon~~~~~

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1 hour ago, SailBlueH2O said:

The morning after Hurricane David was supposed to hit Miami 1979...went to bed wanting to get some sleep...woke up due to the silence when it was about the time it should have been raging outside....the hurricane turn north just before landfall hitting Palm Beach area

IMG.jpg

David made its way to Maryland. I still remember my parents yelling at me to get up and get going to school, opening the companionway, seeing the dock and the road underwater, and saying "Well even if I swim ashore I doubt the school bus is going to make it". We spent the day swimming in the hurricane water.

 

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22 hours ago, doghouse said:

I always wondered why that guy was such a dumbfuck. Then I learned he was Aggy, and now it all makes sense.

I had dinner with Crazy Joe a couple of years ago, and yes he's an oddball, climate change denier, but he takes hurricanes as serious as anyone I've ever met. I also spent a day at NHC's bunker in Miami, learning how those guys approach it. They pull all the data in from satellites, buoys, ships, airplanes, ground stations, etc., and look at the "numerical predictions" (computer models), they look at prior hurricanes and try to find matching historical tracks (pattern recognition), then the assigned forecaster leads a talk through. They come up with a forecast track that's a blend of all the above. Joe starts from pattern recognition, then blends in the computer modeling. NHC forecasters have to hedge their bets a bit and tend to be perhaps overly cautious (if they screw up and people die it doesn't go down well with the general public), while Joe goes balls out with straightforward/less probability based forecasts. He seems to be right more often than not, and when he's got it wrong in the past he's begrudgingly admitted it. Other than hurricanes though, his shtick is annoying and tiring IMHO.

Flo sure looks like the long feared storm slowly churning along the coast, but in NC/SC/GA instead of SoFlo. The shallow bottom contour off the low country are just right to make for a very nasty situation with storm surge. Good luck to all.

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47 minutes ago, Innocent Bystander said:

While models have improved, average 5 day track error is over 200 miles.  Add in 150 mile radius for TS level winds and at 5 days, you are looking at 700 miles of risk, more in cases like this one where the models are all over the place more than 3-4 days out.  Just how far up and down the coast do you want to require folks to strip canvas and haul out to "earn" insurance coverage?  How many times per season?  

Where I am (near Solomons MD), the yards can handle less than 1/2 of the local boats for a scheduled winter haul out and that's mast up and stands on soil/gravel. With 1 travel lift (normally) per yard, they can do fewer in the 3-4 day window before a storm.  Those co-located with a marina generally provide preference to slip holders so non slip holders go on a waiting list that never gets hauled.  Same or worse in most areas that have mild winters where there is no ice hazard and boats often haul for bottom paint and maintenance and then go back in the water.  My boat is 42' and 20,000 lbs.  There are 4  yards that can haul me in the harbor, 3 of those are marinas who give slip holder preference.  The 4th is a small private yard that can haul 4-5 boats per day max.  I'm in a wide private slip in a protected creek with limited fetch.  I'm better off there with doubled storm lines

No easy answers.  

So far Kent Island is forecast to have better weather than last weekend. I am not too worried at this point, if I don't move to a storm anchorage I might just pull into the vacant slip a few down from me that is 90 feet x 20 feet. Plenty of room for long lines and surge adjusting.

So far the #1 danger in every hurricane has been *other boats*, not the storm itself. During Isabel I had to climb on some other boats and add lines and during one of the other ones (Sandy, Irene, ??) I was on a mooring in a good spot and another boat got loose, almost hit me, and ended up on the beach. A special F-U to people too lazy to move their lines from the cleats to the pilings, the surge floats your boat up which pulls the entire dock board off the dock and people are walking on said dock in chest deep water in the dark trying to get your boat tied up again and not break an ankle stepping into the gap :angry:

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6 minutes ago, sugarbird said:

 NHC forecasters have to hedge their bets a bit and tend to be perhaps overly cautious (if they screw up and people die it doesn't go down well with the general public), while Joe goes balls out with straightforward/less probability based forecasts. He seems to be right more often than not, and when he's got it wrong in the past he's begrudgingly admitted it. Other than hurricanes though, his shtick is annoying and tiring IMHO.

 

This was my point. I'm not commenting on his accuracy, which is not any better or worse than the guy, just his general idiocy. Once I learned he was Aggy, then it made a lot more sense. That school is the largest and strangest cult in America.

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12 minutes ago, ROADKILL666 said:

WELL THEY ARE FUCKED AND NOT THE FUN WAY!

Apparently so. This graphic was recently sent to me:

Flo.jpg

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This should be the storm that demonstrates all the technology that has been developed over the years but it won't be.  Stubborn people refusing to leave barrier islands in harm's way will die.  That is just unacceptable to me.  Get out.  Sean posted a great note last night (four times if IIRC), get out.  To you in MD, it sure looks like you dodged this bullet but stay on top of it.  Watching the news, it seems like local governments and even FEMA are taking it seriously.  I truly hope that no first responders are injured or worse going after people that did not heed an evacuation order.  

I forget the commercial, but the punch line was don't fuck with Mother Nature.  Be safe folks.  

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19 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

This should be the storm that demonstrates all the technology that has been developed over the years but it won't be.  Stubborn people refusing to leave barrier islands in harm's way will die.  That is just unacceptable to me.  Get out.  Sean posted a great note last night (four times if IIRC), get out.  To you in MD, it sure looks like you dodged this bullet but stay on top of it.  Watching the news, it seems like local governments and even FEMA are taking it seriously.  I truly hope that no first responders are injured or worse going after people that did not heed an evacuation order.  

I forget the commercial, but the punch line was don't fuck with Mother Nature.  Be safe folks.  

I just heard an interview with a lady in NC.  she said she's staying because if it  her time to go, then it's her time to go.....what a foolish person

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one of the newest models shows it making a lefty and making landfall right over Myrtle Beach SC.  

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1 hour ago, kent_island_sailor said:

So far Kent Island is forecast to have better weather than last weekend. I am not too worried at this point, if I don't move to a storm anchorage I might just pull into the vacant slip a few down from me that is 90 feet x 20 feet. Plenty of room for long lines and surge adjusting.

So far the #1 danger in every hurricane has been *other boats*, not the storm itself. During Isabel I had to climb on some other boats and add lines and during one of the other ones (Sandy, Irene, ??) I was on a mooring in a good spot and another boat got loose, almost hit me, and ended up on the beach. A special F-U to people too lazy to move their lines from the cleats to the pilings, the surge floats your boat up which pulls the entire dock board off the dock and people are walking on said dock in chest deep water in the dark trying to get your boat tied up again and not break an ankle stepping into the gap :angry:

Yep,

 

As long as it stays where it's apparently headed or goes south, I'm only concerned about the coastal flooding and surge.  My center console sits in a sorting shed converted to a boathouse so can't take more than 3 feet of surge without crushing up against the roof.  I moved it out when the dock reappeared after yesterday's high tide and strung it out between my dock and my neighbor's where it is protected and can go up and down all it likes.  put storm lines on the sailboat but postponed the canvas decision until this afternoon waiting for the new model runs.  

Yep.  For Isabel, I was in a commercial marina and "us locals" walked the docks the day before the storm checking lines and securing ignored shit.  Best response from a "fly in" owner was my dock mate who called me during preps with a "My flight is cancelled.  Can you go aboard and get my stern lines and do what you can?"  He knew he wasn't ready and "phoned a friend" to help.  Others survived because we just went aboard (with the dockmaster's blessing) and fixed stuff.  

Worst docks I experienced were in the PNW when cleats started pulling their lag bolts out of punky wood on the floaters in a moderate northerly.  Hard to go straight to the pilings with a 16' tidal range.  

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1 hour ago, kent_island_sailor said:

So far the #1 danger in every hurricane has been *other boats*, not the storm itself. 

Good friend of mine would’ve survived (his boat) Irene, I think it was, in St. Martin, early 199”s, had they not been T-boned by a fishing boat that came unstuck in the secure hurricane hole they were in...

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28 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Good friend of mine would’ve survived (his boat) Irene, I think it was, in St. Martin, early 199”s, had they not been T-boned by a fishing boat that came unstuck in the secure hurricane hole they were in...

Yes, my experience too in a hurricane hole (in the mangroves) in Antigua when a small out-of-season one appeared in March 1984.  It's not how hard it blows, it's what it blows.

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1 hour ago, dacapo said:

I just heard an interview with a lady in NC.  she said she's staying because if it  her time to go, then it's her time to go.....what a foolish person

Here’s another good one - git yerself all prayed up an’ reddy.  The Lard’s a-comin’...

"I'm prayed up and as ready as I can get," Steven Hendrick said as he filled up gasoline cans near Conway, South Carolina.” 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-florence-category-4-evacuation-zones-latest-path-track-weather-forecast-live-updates-2018-09-11/

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15 minutes ago, Sailing My Cubicle said:

Not sailing related but here's an interesting article/blog post about how Boeing is moving places out of SC to WA in advance of Florence. 

Boeing Bugging Out

They base the Hurricane Hunter airplanes on St. Croix during the hurricane season. You know the sh*t is going to hit the fan pretty good there when ALL the planes take off and high tail it outta there.

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1 minute ago, kent_island_sailor said:

This is going to tear up the coast like nothing I can remember. Look at the turn right at the beach :o

152637_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

The turn will be critical....sooner the more coastal thrashing...later lower winds but greater inland flooding...if it follows the track there could be mountain flash flooding

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19 hours ago, Rasputin22 said:

image.png.f46449451d62e91181a798b77ea76e3e.png

According to the USAF it's a 41' Bali catamaran on a transatlantic from Portugal to the Bahamas. Giving them the benefit of the doubt: Based on the location of the storm track and the route the Hurricane Hunter aircraft took to penetrate the storm (including a loop on the way back to contact the boat) the boat was probably on the  Portugal-Azores-Bermuda-Bahamas route. That'd keep them away from the ITCZ where tropical cyclones typically gestate this time of year. They probably had a sat phone - but my guess is they lost use of it which prompted the people that were trying to reach them via sat phone to ultimately have the USCG intervene (which is what probably prompted the SAR rerouting of the HH mission). Luckily their VHF was working. The report said they are running - probably south and away from what would be the stronger quadrant of the storm.

I have this picture in my mind of the skipper of that cat holding a mug of morning coffee as the hurricane hunter C-130 buzzes by at low altitude... 

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1628988/hurricane-hunters-fly-florence-conduct-search-and-rescue/

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2018&storm=Florence&mission=07&agency=AF&mapping=cesium

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18 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

So put a Navy ship with hundreds of servicemen aboard at risk to save some idiots.  I hope not.  

What a dickhead comment. Sorry, just had to chime in. 

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2 hours ago, Innocent Bystander said:

Yep,

 

As long as it stays where it's apparently headed or goes south, I'm only concerned about the coastal flooding and surge.  My center console sits in a sorting shed converted to a boathouse so can't take more than 3 feet of surge without crushing up against the roof.  I moved it out when the dock reappeared after yesterday's high tide and strung it out between my dock and my neighbor's where it is protected and can go up and down all it likes.  put storm lines on the sailboat but postponed the canvas decision until this afternoon waiting for the new model runs.  

Yep.  For Isabel, I was in a commercial marina and "us locals" walked the docks the day before the storm checking lines and securing ignored shit.  Best response from a "fly in" owner was my dock mate who called me during preps with a "My flight is cancelled.  Can you go aboard and get my stern lines and do what you can?"  He knew he wasn't ready and "phoned a friend" to help.  Others survived because we just went aboard (with the dockmaster's blessing) and fixed stuff.  

Worst docks I experienced were in the PNW when cleats started pulling their lag bolts out of punky wood on the floaters in a moderate northerly.  Hard to go straight to the pilings with a 16' tidal range.  

Well hell. I am sure if there were bull rails instead of cleats disaster would've been avoided. ( I know, a bit much on the levity) I do hope all come out safe and sound. 

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4 hours ago, SailBlueH2O said:

The morning after Hurricane David was supposed to hit Miami 1979...went to bed wanting to get some sleep...woke up due to the silence when it was about the time it should have been raging outside....the hurricane turn north just before landfall hitting Palm Beach area

IMG.jpg

My experiences are the reverse.   I evacuated from Tampa to Orlando for Charley in 2004 - 

f12332.jpg

Eye runs up I4, straight over Orlando

Evacuate last year for Irma to a motel in Ridge Manor, North of Tampa -

hurricane-irma-rainfall.jpg

Right where the Dotted blue line crosses I75, just under the "v" in Brooksville, Eye straight over us.

If I had not evacuated Tampa each time, Tampa would have been twice destroyed.  

Hurricanes follow me like rabid dogs...

- Stumbling

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1 hour ago, kent_island_sailor said:

This is going to tear up the coast like nothing I can remember. Look at the turn right at the beach :o

152637_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

Hard to tell specifics, but this graphic seems to suggest 24 hours from Cape Lookout to Southport. That's only about 110 miles of coastline. The beaches and islands in between are going to get churned up and wiped clean.

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Google earth shows most of those barrier islands have a 10-15 foot tall sand berm near the beach but most of the island is under 10 feet elevation.  A 13 foot surge plus 85 foot wave will be ugly.  Hoping for the best, but hard to see any relief at this point.

Can't the government shut Florence down with some contrails or something?

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5 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Google earth shows most of those barrier islands have a 10-15 foot tall sand berm near the beach but most of the island is under 10 feet elevation.  A 13 foot surge plus 85 foot wave will be ugly.  Hoping for the best, but hard to see any relief at this point.

Can't the government shut Florence down with some contrails or something?

Nuke it.  

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6 minutes ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Google earth shows most of those barrier islands have a 10-15 foot tall sand berm near the beach but most of the island is under 10 feet elevation.  A 13 foot surge plus 85 foot wave will be ugly.  Hoping for the best, but hard to see any relief at this point.

Can't the government shut Florence down with some contrails or something?

The 85 foot offshore wave will be a 176' breaker when it hits the beach

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21 hours ago, evenflow said:

Navy is heading out to sea, hopefully they can rescue these folks.

THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE TO DO THAT.IF YOURE THAT STUPID NOT TO CHECK WEATHER IN THIS DAY AND AGE THEN WELL!CAN WE SAY EL FARO

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1 hour ago, stumblingthunder said:

Right where the Dotted blue line crosses I75, just under the "v" in Brooksville, Eye straight over us.

If I had not evacuated Tampa each time, Tampa would have been twice destroyed.  

Hurricanes follow me like rabid dogs...

- Stumbling

Say, um, any idea where you'll for the next few days?

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Slightly off-topic, but i don't remember seeing a picture like this before.  Joyce and Kirk will be named later tonight.  We've seen four named storms at one time in the Atlantic basin, but five? 

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

two_atl_0d0.png?121843

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Good ole Charley. That was the year we had four hurricanes come through. Luckily, I had our Sabre 38 on the hard while I did a barrier coat, and she stayed there for all four. And yes, they emptied the docks and filled the yard with haul-outs, and yes, boats went over like dominoes. No, our boat wasn't near those, but yes, our mast was damaged by flying debris.

Iirc, that's also the one where the marina had very nice floating concrete docks on concrete pilings. I mean, really nice, and new. Those docks went up, and up, and up, and floated off of the top of the pilings and left the marina.

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Just now, mookiesurfs said:

Good ole Charley. That was the year we had four hurricanes come through. Luckily, I had our Sabre 38 on the hard while I did a barrier coat, and she stayed there for all four. And yes, they emptied the docks and filled the yard with haul-outs, and yes, boats went over like dominoes. No, our boat wasn't near those, but yes, our mast was damaged by flying debris.

Iirc, that's also the one where the marina had very nice floating concrete docks on concrete pilings. I mean, really nice, and new. Those docks went up, and up, and up, and floated off of the top of the pilings and left the marina.

Charlie was predicted to come up Tampa Bay...first time I boarded up my house since we bought it in 82, it was a small eye but HELL...it turned inland @ Port Charlotte about 75-80 miles south of us and if not for the coverage would not have had a clue as it was overcast with normal winds and occasional spitting rain....Irma made up for Charlie...lost many old trees and trashed my yard...power out for 11 days

 

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2 hours ago, stumblingthunder said:

Right where the Dotted blue line crosses I75, just under the "v" in Brooksville, Eye straight over us.

If I had not evacuated Tampa each time, Tampa would have been twice destroyed.  

Hurricanes follow me like rabid dogs...

- Stumbling

I have a daughter and grandson in Apollo Beach and a daughter in the process of moving to West Palm Beach.  What would it take for you to move to Savannah for the hurricane season?  

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23 hours ago, Rasputin22 said:

image.png.f46449451d62e91181a798b77ea76e3e.png

 

23 hours ago, Veeger said:

Oops!  But it's so sunny right now!

(nice of the plane crew to give 'em a heads up, but no kudos to the id-jit blow boater.  Dang! It only takes a few to make everyone look bad...)

 

4 hours ago, nirvous said:

According to the USAF it's a 41' Bali catamaran on a transatlantic from Portugal to the Bahamas. Giving them the benefit of the doubt: Based on the location of the storm track and the route the Hurricane Hunter aircraft took to penetrate the storm (including a loop on the way back to contact the boat) the boat was probably on the  Portugal-Azores-Bermuda-Bahamas route. That'd keep them away from the ITCZ where tropical cyclones typically gestate this time of year. They probably had a sat phone - but my guess is they lost use of it which prompted the people that were trying to reach them via sat phone to ultimately have the USCG intervene (which is what probably prompted the SAR rerouting of the HH mission). Luckily their VHF was working. The report said they are running - probably south and away from what would be the stronger quadrant of the storm.

I have this picture in my mind of the skipper of that cat holding a mug of morning coffee as the hurricane hunter C-130 buzzes by at low altitude... 

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1628988/hurricane-hunters-fly-florence-conduct-search-and-rescue/

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2018&storm=Florence&mission=07&agency=AF&mapping=cesium

I preface this post on the basis my thoughts go to those who can't move not travelers like this who have control over their own destiny.

First it is easy to think this guy is an idiot being on passage in the eastern Atlantic ocean around 30+ degrees north this time of year. However with forecasting today and quick boats (in this case a multi with security of 2 engines) it is a relatively safe bet on the basis you can cover enough distance perpendicular to the track to get out of harm's way.

Decades ago with only a HF and Weatherfax I was often forced to do east west deliveries before the season ended in relatively slower boats compared to today but large enough to do 200 mile days. The choice of route was essentialy based on historical paths and picking a line having regard to the "bowling alley" between 18 and 32 degrees north or being around 900 mile wide. See the attached pic where the Orange/Pink/Purple Tracks are the historical tracks of the H3 - H5's.

The Grey line is the northern route which is more downwind and more favoured if your leaving northern Europe and or heading for the east coast of the USA/Nth Carribbean. While sitting closer to the northern boundary  I was never game to take this route on account the escape distance south in the breeze was too great and their path at the other end is more north west not easterly putting a northern escape one of paralleling their path towards the worst quadrant. The Cat skipper appears to have taken this northern route.

The Red Line is the traditional and relatively quick "trade-wind" slide used by most, particularly those exiting the Med and with no reason to be landing further north. The downside of this route is you sit close to/in the "bowling alley" for longer and in fact are in the neighbourhood of where they gestate around the Cape Verde's. The upside is the escape distance south albeit into the ITCZ is not far.

Where the Cat Skipper may have fucked up is the moment Florence appeared last week was the time to head south. Likewise the moment they lost comms and weather forecasting ability if that was the case.

Continuing on "blinded by the destination/calendar" and not having comms redundancy is where most people come unstuck in this postcode this time of year. This lot should buy a lottery ticket when they land.

hurricane history_routes.jpg

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1 hour ago, P_Wop said:

Slightly off-topic, but i don't remember seeing a picture like this before.  Joyce and Kirk will be named later tonight.  We've seen four named storms at one time in the Atlantic basin, but five? 

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

two_atl_0d0.png?121843

Joyce just got christened.

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3 hours ago, woahboy said:

What a dickhead comment. Sorry, just had to chime in. 

I'm guessing you had bone spurs.  Idiots at sea are not worth diverting our navy to save them.  You are one unthinking dips hit.  

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8 hours ago, SailBlueH2O said:

The morning after Hurricane David was supposed to hit Miami 1979...went to bed wanting to get some sleep...woke up due to the silence when it was about the time it should have been raging outside....the hurricane turn north just before landfall hitting Palm Beach area

IMG.jpg

1979 was a memorable year...the Three Mile Island nuclear accident, Trivial Pursuit launched, Pink Floyd released "The Wall",  Michael Jackson made "Off the Wall", Sony Walkman was invented so you could listen to your dick tastes in music like Michael Jackson without anyone knowing... and more importantly the year the "boob tube" was invented hitting the shelves at around $4.

1587391951_images(96).jpeg.b9e1f91fbc1fea8db69b5f996b24c957.jpeg

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9 hours ago, SailBlueH2O said:

She is still pretty after putting up with me for nearly 45 years ...

KBD.jpg

Know the area  well. Used to have a trailer parking space there along with the CGSC mooring.

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If your interested why the Hurricane Hunters use old propellor aircraft not jets like the Lockheed WP-3D Orion and Lockheed WC-130J (modified version of the Hercules transporter) 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

If your interested why the Hurricane Hunters use old propellor aircraft not jets like the Lockheed WP-3D Orion and Lockheed WC-130J (modified version of the Hercules transporter) 

 

 

There are flying C-130J into Florence

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9 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

If your interested why the Hurricane Hunters use old propellor aircraft not jets like the Lockheed WP-3D Orion and Lockheed WC-130J (modified version of the Hercules transporter) 

 

 

I always thought it was because wx recce was at the absolute bottom of the funding priorities, and so they got hand-me-downs.

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22 minutes ago, mookiesurfs said:

I always thought it was because wx recce was at the absolute bottom of the funding priorities, and so they got hand-me-downs.

This cockpit vid is pretty great. These folks appear to know exactly what they're doing, and it's fun to watch them work. Even more cool when you consider all the measurements being taken in the back.

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48 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

There are flying C-130J into Florence

The C130's are from the Air Force Reserve's Weather Reconnaissance Squadron based in Mississippi.

The Orion's are NOAA's out of Florida which they purchased new in the 1970's. The airframe is based on Lockheeds 188 Electra commercial turbo prop airliner released in the late 1950's.

Interestingly Lockheed have a upgrade kit/program to get a couple of more decades out of them or more than double their flying hours to date.

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20 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

Does the GRIB include aircraft observations or just buoys wherever they can get them?  I don't know.  

 

 PS. Is the resolution tied to computing time which is the excuse used by NWS in the late 70's.  Is anything computer-limited anymore?

No, the GRIB file does not include aircraft observations, except indirectly to initialize the model.

Yes, the resolution is very much tied to computer power. The "G" in GFS stands for global. Basically think of the whole earth's atmosphere divided up into little cells. (I imagine they are also divided vertically for each 0.25 degree square). So then put in a whole world's observations of pressure/temp/wind speed/moisture from stationary sites as well as balloons, satellites, maybe ship observations. Then lots of equations that tie them all together.

Then click "Solve". The weather service does use some of biggest supercomputers around. That's why the ECMWF model has been getting better than GFS for the past few years. More computing power at their disposal. 

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8 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Here’s another good one - git yerself all prayed up an’ reddy.  The Lard’s a-comin’...

"I'm prayed up and as ready as I can get," Steven Hendrick said as he filled up gasoline cans near Conway, South Carolina.” 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-florence-category-4-evacuation-zones-latest-path-track-weather-forecast-live-updates-2018-09-11/

Hope someone has "prayed up" for these houses in Sth Carolina..

dims.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Hope someone has "prayed up" for these houses in Sth Carolina..

dims.jpeg

Going to be a good year for surveyors....

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37 minutes ago, Zonker said:

That's why the ECMWF model has been getting better than GFS for the past few years. More computing power at their disposal. 

ECMWF also takes twice as long to run as GFS. It has longer to work on solutions so it can use a more complicated model but it is less responsive to changes in the inputs. GFS also produces more fields.

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27 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Hope someone has "prayed up" for these houses in Sth Carolina..

dims.jpeg

I'm sure I have seen some of these on "Beachfront Bargain Hunt". Oh, this is going to suck bad. Rooting for all you guys down there. 

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A confession:

Sooo... yesterday I tried to start my Craftsman 5600 generator, without success. It had been mouldering in my garage since the last time I used it, maybe 5 or 6 years ago. I called my long-time auto mechanic who agreed not only to fix it, but also picked it up. (It pays to be a loyal customer!)

He called me this morning and asked me if I knew about the On/Off switch. I didn't remember it. Anyhow, it was in the Off position, but when put in the On position, the motor fired up. He did flush the fuel tank and clean the plug. Turns out that I must have closed the fuel cut-off lever and run the motor until dry last time, because the carburetor was clean.

So now I am good to go, and now know (remember) about the secret switch. :) 

This should ensure that we don't loose power.

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5 minutes ago, Bull City said:

He called me this morning and asked me if I knew about the On/Off switch.

Bull anyone who says they have never done that also says they have never run aground.

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6 minutes ago, Bull City said:

A confession:

Sooo... yesterday I tried to start my Craftsman 5600 generator, without success. It had been mouldering in my garage since the last time I used it, maybe 5 or 6 years ago. I called my long-time auto mechanic who agreed not only to fix it, but also picked it up. (It pays to be a loyal customer!)

He called me this morning and asked me if I knew about the On/Off switch. I didn't remember it. Anyhow, it was in the Off position, but when put in the On position, the motor fired up. He did flush the fuel tank and clean the plug. Turns out that I must have closed the fuel cut-off lever and run the motor until dry last time, because the carburetor was clean.

So now I am good to go, and now know (remember) about the secret switch. :) 

This should ensure that we don't loose power.

Put a piece of tape with an arrow pointing to the switch for next time. 

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Bull anyone who says they have never done that also says they have never run aground.

I did that with a snowblower. 

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17 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

I'm sure I have seen some of these on "Beachfront Bargain Hunt". Oh, this is going to suck bad. Rooting for all you guys down there. 

The aftermath Sandy

https://untappedcities.com/2012/11/06/hurricane-sandys-aftermath-a-photo-essay/wyatt-gallery-post-sandy-destroyed-porsche-belle-harbor-untappedny/

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4 hours ago, Innocent Bystander said:

I have a daughter and grandson in Apollo Beach and a daughter in the process of moving to West Palm Beach.  What would it take for you to move to Savannah for the hurricane season?  

Savannah says no thanks, keep it in florida.

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14 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

This guy [tropicalTidbits.com] does an excellent hype free explanation 

Yes, he does. Also he has built a remarkably good website.  His is my only patron subscription.

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19 minutes ago, Bull City said:

A confession:

Sooo... yesterday I tried to start my Craftsman 5600 generator, without success. It had been mouldering in my garage since the last time I used it, maybe 5 or 6 years ago. I called my long-time auto mechanic who agreed not only to fix it, but also picked it up. (It pays to be a loyal customer!)

He called me this morning and asked me if I knew about the On/Off switch. I didn't remember it. Anyhow, it was in the Off position, but when put in the On position, the motor fired up. He did flush the fuel tank and clean the plug. Turns out that I must have closed the fuel cut-off lever and run the motor until dry last time, because the carburetor was clean.

So now I am good to go, and now know (remember) about the secret switch. :) 

This should ensure that we don't loose power.

Forgetting about the on/off switch, calling your mechanic, flushing the tank, and cleaning the plug are the standard startup procedure for a portable genset. It's right there in the manual. 

I've never forgotten about the kill switch on a small motor. Never.

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13 hours ago, SailBlueH2O said:

 

IMG.jpg

Reminds me of an advert... she's gonna need more lube. 

Sittin' on the dock of the bay...

à haut pouvoir lubrifiant = something like "very very lubricant" 

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2 hours ago, Zonker said:

No, the GRIB file does not include aircraft observations, except indirectly to initialize the model.

Yes, the resolution is very much tied to computer power. The "G" in GFS stands for global. Basically think of the whole earth's atmosphere divided up into little cells. (I imagine they are also divided vertically for each 0.25 degree square). So then put in a whole world's observations of pressure/temp/wind speed/moisture from stationary sites as well as balloons, satellites, maybe ship observations. Then lots of equations that tie them all together.

Then click "Solve". The weather service does use some of biggest supercomputers around. That's why the ECMWF model has been getting better than GFS for the past few years. More computing power at their disposal. 

Mid 80s I attended a meeting by Danny Hillis of MIT and founder of Thinking machines in Cambridge Mass.

The first 3 rows were guys from IBM dressed like the dudes in Men in Black with the black suits, white shirts, black ties, and buzz cuts.

Danny walks onto the stage with long hair, jeans, and a blue bowling shirt on.

The IBM boys were looking at each other with a Who/What the fuck is that clown?

Danny welcomed everyone and began by explaining that fastest computer in the world is the CRAY XP which was could compute at x mflps.

He said even with perfect manufacturing, there is a theoretical limit of 20 times that speed left due to speed of light (electrons) in a .25"x..25"x.25" chip (how far you could travel with the fastest processor clocks at the time).

He then says "I don't get out of bed for anything that is not at least 2-3000 times faster than that"

That room got so quiet you could hear a pin drop.

The IBM boys were not sure what to think. Cray was eating their lunch at the high end of the market, and this long hair MIT geek had just diss'd them big time.

He then went to explain he was ganging 64,000 386 intel processors and the secret sauce was the software to break up the problem so that all the processors could work on small parts of the overall problem.  And his next machine was going going to use 64,000 of the new Intel 486 processors just coming out.  Though the first machines were sold to the US Govt and American Express to establish the company, Danny's goal was to be able to forecast the weather 20 years into the future.  You have to take into account every piece of weather information in every part of the world and play it forward 1 day. Use those results to play it forward another day etc.  

We have made a lot of progress in the past 30 years, but there is a ways to go.  

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7 hours ago, Innocent Bystander said:

I have a daughter and grandson in Apollo Beach and a daughter in the process of moving to West Palm Beach.  What would it take for you to move to Savannah for the hurricane season?  

Don't worry, I am out of Florida for the moment, but damn if a hurricane/cyclone pop up in the Arabian Sea (Mekunu), and started tracking towards me last May.   Once it dissipated down to a tropical disturbance, it just wandered off.

Besides, family in Savannah would not appreciate me moving up there!

- Stumbling

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5 hours ago, Zonker said:

No, the GRIB file does not include aircraft observations, except indirectly to initialize the model.

Yes, the resolution is very much tied to computer power. The "G" in GFS stands for global. Basically think of the whole earth's atmosphere divided up into little cells. (I imagine they are also divided vertically for each 0.25 degree square). So then put in a whole world's observations of pressure/temp/wind speed/moisture from stationary sites as well as balloons, satellites, maybe ship observations. Then lots of equations that tie them all together.

Then click "Solve". The weather service does use some of biggest supercomputers around. That's why the ECMWF model has been getting better than GFS for the past few years. More computing power at their disposal. 

Thanks for answering my questions in a professional manner.  Not the norm around here.  

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2 hours ago, Foreverslow said:

Mid 80s I attended a meeting by Danny Hillis of MIT and founder of Thinking machines in Cambridge Mass.

The first 3 rows were guys from IBM dressed like the dudes in Men in Black with the black suits, white shirts, black ties, and buzz cuts.

Danny walks onto the stage with long hair, jeans, and a blue bowling shirt on.

The IBM boys were looking at each other with a Who/What the fuck is that clown?

Danny welcomed everyone and began by explaining that fastest computer in the world is the CRAY XP which was could compute at x mflps.

He said even with perfect manufacturing, there is a theoretical limit of 20 times that speed left due to speed of light (electrons) in a .25"x..25"x.25" chip (how far you could travel with the fastest processor clocks at the time).

He then says "I don't get out of bed for anything that is not at least 2-3000 times faster than that"

That room got so quiet you could hear a pin drop.

The IBM boys were not sure what to think. Cray was eating their lunch at the high end of the market, and this long hair MIT geek had just diss'd them big time.

He then went to explain he was ganging 64,000 386 intel processors and the secret sauce was the software to break up the problem so that all the processors could work on small parts of the overall problem.  And his next machine was going going to use 64,000 of the new Intel 486 processors just coming out.  Though the first machines were sold to the US Govt and American Express to establish the company, Danny's goal was to be able to forecast the weather 20 years into the future.  You have to take into account every piece of weather information in every part of the world and play it forward 1 day. Use those results to play it forward another day etc.  

We have made a lot of progress in the past 30 years, but there is a ways to go.  

If we ever meet, I'm buying you the best Scotch in the place, and I don't even like Scotch.  I'm from the world of nine track tapes and drum drives that held 300MB.  The fancy refrigerators have more computing power.  

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3 hours ago, Foreverslow said:

Mid 80s I attended a meeting by Danny Hillis of MIT and founder of Thinking machines in Cambridge Mass

Danny Hillis and Stuart Brand can never be accused for small thinking.  Their Long Now Foundation is a case in point http://longnow.org - really out there, but well funded.

Massively parallel micro-MPU architecture is a big (small) interest of mine, and we have a couple of good patents too.  PM me if you'd like.

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In addition to Flo there are 8 others cooking around the globe at the moment. That is one big ring of low pressure sucking up moisture. These incl Hurricanes Olivia, Isaac and Helene and Typhoon Mangkut, the latter around 500 mile from the Phillipines and gusting to 180 knots. Lucky climate change has nothing to do with it.

Sure many would rather be Spring sailing in the Sth Hemisphere.

5013019D00000578-0-image-a-17_1536765632909.jpg

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5 hours ago, IStream said:

Forgetting about the on/off switch, calling your mechanic, flushing the tank, and cleaning the plug are the standard startup procedure for a portable genset. It's right there in the manual. 

I've never forgotten about the kill switch on a small motor. Never.

The bright side is that the local economy got a little cash infusion, so at least there's that. :rolleyes:

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And this is what she looks like from the ISS.  I hate the diagrams showing the projected movement of the core as  a narrow cone.  They really don't indicate how large these things are.  500 miles across, at least.  The public really aren't being told what's about to happen and how far out from the center the impacts will be.

 

 

5b993fb35c5e5225008b60f0-12001.jpg

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1 hour ago, P_Wop said:

I hate the diagrams showing the projected movement of the core as  a narrow cone.

That's an amazing picture.

It is a massive storm.

swath_rain.FLORENCE06L.2018091300.png

swath_10m.FLORENCE06L.2018091300.png

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2 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

Thanks for answering my questions in a professional manner.  Not the norm around here.

Shit I'm slipping. Won't let it happen again

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If those that were stupid enough to ignore mandatory evacuation warnings find themselves up to there necks in floodwater will the emergency services still respond to cries for help, assuming, of course, the idiots can be heard. I seem to remember the governor of one state telling these people "You will be on your own, rescue services will not respond" or something similar. Frankly, I believe those that are putting their faith in God should see it through, to the pearly gates if necessary. Why should others put their lives at risk for fools?

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1 hour ago, Para Handy said:

If those that were stupid enough to ignore mandatory evacuation warnings find themselves up to there necks in floodwater will the emergency services still respond to cries for help, assuming, of course, the idiots can be heard. I seem to remember the governor of one state telling these people "You will be on your own, rescue services will not respond" or something similar. Frankly, I believe those that are putting their faith in God should see it through, to the pearly gates if necessary. Why should others put their lives at risk for fools?

I don't think anybody seriously means that emergency services should check if people in need, possibly can be to blame, before they decide to help or not. Putting their lives at risk for fools is what they DO. Not all people have the competence to assess what is risky or not. And weather in particular can be difficult to predict. That doesn't mean we all stop sailing, does it. 

That being said, in a big situation like this, of course the option is to cancel all emergency services in general, to protect the lives of the people who work there. I understand that choice. 

But in general - risking their lives is what they DO. 

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4 hours ago, P_Wop said:

And this is what she looks like from the ISS.  I hate the diagrams showing the projected movement of the core as  a narrow cone.  They really don't indicate how large these things are.  500 miles across, at least.  The public really aren't being told what's about to happen and how far out from the center the impacts will be.

 

 

5b993fb35c5e5225008b60f0-12001.jpg

My thinking exactly.   Flo is one big ass bitch and aiming to hurt some folks even outside that scrany path the NHC shows.

 

if you have cleared the deck, check on your neighbors and offer to lend a hand or run an errand.

I have a lot of retirees surrounding me and have put out the offer which was graciously declined, but they know I have their back.

Have also gotten calls from up north saying if things were to go pear shaped on the bay, I have a place to stay as long as needed.

Many are buddies from prior yacht clubs.    Contrary to what the news likes to print, most sailors are not asshats.

 

Praying you all make it through this whole.

 

forever

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4 hours ago, P_Wop said:

And this is what she looks like from the ISS.  I hate the diagrams showing the projected movement of the core as  a narrow cone.  They really don't indicate how large these things are.  500 miles across, at least.  The public really aren't being told what's about to happen and how far out from the center the impacts will be.

 

 

5b993fb35c5e5225008b60f0-12001.jpg

one more thing

Look at the size

Anyone really believe that monster is going to zig left like a NHL wingman that quickly?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/093018.shtml?swath#contents

 

That has to be on heck of a high blocking her path...

 

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10 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Bull anyone who says they have never done that also says they have never run aground.

i did that yesterday with my dinghy outboard....five minutes before I realized the kill switch was in the off position

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51 minutes ago, dacapo said:

i did that yesterday with my dinghy outboard....five minutes before I realized the kill switch was in the off position

My generator states the kill switch is for emergency use only. After I forgot to run it dry one time I became so adept at taking the carb etc off was like an Indy pit crew.  I have a number of tools with gas engines and now make sure I never use the kill switch when it's getting put up.  At the worst you have to clean the tank, piece of cake. 

The fuel switch is your friend. 

And hope all are safe on the coast - this looks to be the size of Katrina in 2005.  That did a lot of damage besides NOLA.. 

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