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23 minutes ago, IStream said:

Amazing how much active throttle jockeying is involved. Also amazing that the they're not all strapped in, I would've thought it would be a lot bouncier or at least less predictable.

I have flown in MUCH worse than what they showed, to the point that if the seatbelt wasn't making your legs go numb your skull would be bashing the overhead. They must be really good at finding a soft place to get in there or there was no filming during the bad parts.

Re the throttles: If there is a lot of convective activity (up and down drafts) and you want to hold altitude, you either do a lot of throttle adjustments or risk ripping the wings off and/or stalling. Or maybe both :o:o

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6 minutes ago, freewheelin said:

here is a live view from Frying Pan

I hope they have a good supply of flags 

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

I hope they have a good supply of flags 

And solar panels. It's certainly going to be interesting watching that webcam.

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Just now, Para Handy said:

And solar panels. It's certainly going to be interesting watching that webcam.

it's mesmerizing. 34 miles or so southeast of southport. Its coooooming

 

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2 minutes ago, freewheelin said:

it's mesmerizing. 34 miles or so southeast of southport. Its coooooming

 

The waiting...and the crescendo as it gets closer....then the waiting wondering if each lull is the ending.....hot and muggy....very hot and muggy 

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5 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

anyone for an over under on the flag making it through?

  i'm taking the under...

 

Actually the wind over the mic makes it seem worse...if you look at the waves and the flag...it ain't nothing yet....

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1 minute ago, freewheelin said:

33°29′N 77°35′W

By the way, the rig is for sale. If anyone is in the market for an offshore platform, bet you could make a low-ball right about now.

Hell of a spot for a Mount Gay hat party !  ;)

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Just now, freewheelin said:

uh oh, its moving.

Yes...interesting the angle of the flag is changing....stick your nose in the wind and left arm extended to the rear to the rear and that is where the storm is....

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53 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

 

  here's the Frying pan tower Noaa data.  let's see if she makes it through...

Weird - I didn’t know NOAA uses “inches” still for barometric pressure.

So, currently Frying Pan NOAA site shows pressure at 29.78 inches, which a conversion site tells me is 1008 millibars.

Curious, because NOAA weather fax charts etc show high/lows in millibars.

22B2B2B3-BC5B-4E80-88C4-23068D46285D.jpeg

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18 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Yes...interesting the angle of the flag is changing....stick your nose in the wind and left arm extended to the rear to the rear and that is where the storm is....

??  Counterclockwise flow around a low.  Nose into the wind puts the storm to your right, doesn't it?  Right now, the storm is 132 NM due east of Frying Pan and winds reported at FPS are N at 33, G 43.  

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4 minutes ago, Innocent Bystander said:

??  Counterclockwise flow around a low.  Nose into the wind puts the storm to your right, doesn't it?  Right now, the storm is 132 NM due east of Frying Pan and winds reported at FPS are N at 33, G 43.  

Yes, somebody named Coriolis taught us that.  

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What is the over under for that pavilion and the pier?

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Just now, Marty6 said:

What is the over under for that pavilion and the pier?

Id be surprised if it makes it past sunset today.  it seems ot be moving a lot  fox13 will get their money shot..

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1 minute ago, Marty6 said:

What is the over under for that pavilion and the pier?

It just moved significantly on the last breaking wave. I give it an hour.

 

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1 minute ago, Marty6 said:

What is the over under for that pavilion and the pier?

if the waves go over

the pier goes under

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Just now, nota said:

if the waves go over

the pier goes under

And then it will wipe out the camera.

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Check out the water movement from left to right....I got them right this time :wub:....color blind and dyslexic is a bitch

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I hope people take these visuals to heart when venturing to sea in heavy forecasts. A lot of folks have never experienced what these winds are like at sea.

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I spent two weeks on the Chesapeake Light Tower in the 90's and we had a system come through and that thing shook like a bitch on every wave.  Mother Nature is not to be taken lightly.  

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Just now, doghouse said:

I hope people take these visuals to heart when venturing to sea in heavy forecasts. A lot of folks have never experienced what these winds are like at sea.

I was caught in 2 El Nino gales 1983...in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.....nearly washed overboard by a breaker...saved by the head of the raised OB motor

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43 minutes ago, Innocent Bystander said:

??  Counterclockwise flow around a low.  Nose into the wind puts the storm to your right, doesn't it?  Right now, the storm is 132 NM due east of Frying Pan and winds reported at FPS are N at 33, G 43.  

 

38 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Yes, somebody named Coriolis taught us that.  

Actually it wasn't Coriolis's work in the early 19th century that informed the world of this phenomenon.

It was a Spanish /Agustinian friar and renouned sailor called Andrés de Urdanetta who in the mid 16th century was the first to solve the puzzle of winds moving in opposite directions in each hemisphere.

Because of his knowledge and experience, Urdanetta was petitioned by King Philip II of Spain to help organize a fleet to conquer and colonize the Philippines in 1565.

The map below is a 17th century replica  of “Urdanetta’s route” for the Pacific which became the main track for the Spanish gold-carrying galleons moving between Asia, the Americas and Europe in the 16th and 17th century and by others.

So really we should be calling this the "Urdanetta Effect" and dispatch this French imposter Coriolis who was 200 years late to the Twister party.

map-dampier-winds-bellin-1753-thumb.jpg.c6388ae7eb5308a98de88418c935912f.jpg

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19 minutes ago, freewheelin said:

its rocking now...

Seems like larger sets are getting more frequent and it's moving more.  Money shot will come.  I'm betting Fox is hoping it will happen before sunset.  

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5 minutes ago, Innocent Bystander said:

Seems like larger sets are getting more frequent and it's moving more.  Money shot will come.  I'm betting Fox is hoping it will happen before sunset.  

Are you still talking about the storm, or are you watching big tit porn again?

 

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3 minutes ago, freewheelin said:

you gotta love a place where the on-scene reporters wear cargo shorts

There is no situation on earth where I love someone wearing cargo shorts.

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5 minutes ago, ajbram said:

Are you still talking about the storm, or are you watching big tit porn again?

 

Probably a stormy daniels thing, it is fox...

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26 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

I was caught in 2 El Nino gales 1983...in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.....nearly washed overboard by a breaker...saved by the head of the raised OB motor

I had the same sort of experience at the carwash the other day.

5ad42402bd5c9_unnamed(28).gif.392f99e9b07992f995458114bf9e7cbc.gif

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35 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

Actually it wasn't Coriolis's work in the early 19th century that informed the world of this phenomenon.

It was a Spanish /Agustinian friar and renouned sailor called Andrés de Urdanetta who in the mid 16th century was the first to solve the puzzle of winds moving in opposite directions in each hemisphere.

Because of his knowledge and experience, Urdanetta was petitioned by King Philip II of Spain to help organize a fleet to conquer and colonize the Philippines in 1565.

The map below is a 17th century replica  of “Urdanetta’s route” for the Pacific which became the main track for the Spanish gold-carrying galleons moving between Asia, the Americas and Europe in the 16th and 17th century and by others.

So really we should be calling this the "Urdanetta Effect" and dispatch this French imposter Coriolis who was 200 years late to the Twister party.

map-dampier-winds-bellin-1753-thumb.jpg.c6388ae7eb5308a98de88418c935912f.jpg

Are you Mike W's long lost twin?  I did the equations of motion in college and had fun doing it.  Thanks for the clarification.  

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18 minutes ago, doghouse said:

There is no situation on earth where I love someone wearing cargo shorts.

 

Not my favorite look, but useful when travelling to carry extra phone battery and stuff, and keep ones wallet in a closed flap pocket.

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1 hour ago, Innocent Bystander said:

So far, that's only about 40 knots.  I'd say that pavillion will be gone before dawn tomorrow.  

This guy should go for a walk along the pier.

 

Carmen Yulin Cruz, the mayor of San Juan, who has criticized both the president and his administration's response to the hurricae last year that devastated the US territory.

 

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29 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

 

So really we should be calling this the "Urdanetta Effect" and dispatch this French imposter Coriolis who was 200 years late to the Twister party.

 

No Coriolis is not an imposter.

You are correct that Urdanetta described the phenomenom and how to exploit it for sailing routes; but he did not explain it. Coriolis did explain it; and actually, he was not even looking at weather patterns, but studying rotating machines, and that is how he discovered "secondary" forces, as described in the Wikipedia entry below, which explains also weather patterns..

"Three years later came the paper that would make his name famous, Sur les équations du mouvement relatif des systèmes de corps (On the equations of relative motion of a system of bodies).[4] Coriolis's papers do not deal with the atmosphere or even the rotation of the Earth, but with the transfer of energy in rotating systems like waterwheels. Coriolis discussed the supplementary forces that are detected in a rotating frame of reference and he divided these forces into two categories. The second category contained the force that would eventually bear his name."

 

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18 hours ago, Illegal Smile said:

This cockpit vid is pretty great. These folks appear to know exactly what they're doing, and it's fun to watch them work. Even more cool when you consider all the measurements being taken in the back.

Having to ride the throttles to maintain V-B or stay below max speed for turbulence.   Turbulence can give them + and - Gs, keeping the speed down below V-B does its best to minimize the amount of Gs the airframe experiences, but can't fly too slow or the turbulence can put them into either a + or - incidence stall.   Thus, the throttle work when flying through a hurricane or any other sever turbulence.

- Stumbling

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23 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I had the same sort of experience at the carwash the other day.

5ad42402bd5c9_unnamed(28).gif.392f99e9b07992f995458114bf9e7cbc.gif

Lot of Coriolis force on that windshield!

- Stumbling

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

This guy should go for a walk along the pier.

 

 

 

Trump is given to tweeting silly shit. 

The estimate of deaths in Puerto Rico is a very soft number, in truth nobody knows, as the government there is essentially incompetent as well as being fundamentally corrupt. As has been stated elsewhere the death toll due to Katrina is also a soft number as the population was partially evacuated, and some that passed due to the stress might have passed in any case. Whether the actual number is 1k, 2k, 3k, 4k or the upper range 8k is arguable. As he correctly notes it started low (the governor's estimate) and went up as they found bodies. The arguments of politicians such as mayor Cruz during the event with her cute little "resistance" t-shirts were more calculated to show defiance that to serve actual constituents. All you need to see is the pile of water and other supplies that were delivered to the island, and never distributed. 

The Federal Government here is tasked with helping the large scale logistics that the state/local can't manage, not wiping noses and handing out supplies locally. Differences in Puerto Rico and Katrina vs Houston and Florida storms is basically the competence of local/state governments. It's a lot easier to truck supplies in, than ship to a devastated port. Restoring power is a lot easier, when there was a viable infrastructure to restore. 

For what it's worth, the "Cajun Navy" and other private entities such as utility crews are pre-positioning to be able to assist with the detail work. None of that was feasible in the Caribbean. 

 

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2 hours ago, freewheelin said:

here is a live view from Frying Pan

 

 

The winds and waves are really cooking now on the Frying Pan Cam!

Sorry, could not help myself...

- Stumbling

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1 hour ago, SailBlueH2O said:
shakey at the end of the pier

 

and then there was nothing :-(

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46 minutes ago, stumblingthunder said:

Having to ride the throttles to maintain V-B or stay below max speed for turbulence.   Turbulence can give them + and - Gs, keeping the speed down below V-B does its best to minimize the amount of Gs the airframe experiences, but can't fly too slow or the turbulence can put them into either a + or - incidence stall.   Thus, the throttle work when flying through a hurricane or any other sever turbulence.

- Stumbling

Something to try next time in a storm - do the huma equivalent of the "soft ride" program in some autopilots.

Set Otto to wing leveling mode ONLY. No heading and for sure no altitude hold. Trim the plane to the desires airspeed. Let the plane make its own corrections in pitch unless it really gets out of whack, natural pitch stability will tend to hold airspeed more or less. You'll need the "unable to hold altitude, convective activity" call if the excursions are very large. Works a treat :D

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Jesus guys, this thread is not about a bunch of privileged pricks talking about flying.  Plus, you both don't know shit.  People are going to die from this storm and you two are debating autopilots on airplanes that have ignorant pricks in the left seat?  Buy some perspective with your next load of 100LL.  

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They do useful work. This chart from the aircraft observations is getting a little old now, but does give a feel for the shape of things. It probably misses the highest winds because of limited sampling. Please make every effort to stay safe.

2018AL06_AIRCTCWA_201809131200_SWHR.GIF

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10 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Jesus guys, this thread is not about a bunch of privileged pricks talking about flying.  Plus, you both don't know shit.  People are going to die from this storm and you two are debating autopilots on airplanes that have ignorant pricks in the left seat?  Buy some perspective with your next load of 100LL.  

Didn't stop you from posting ignorant bullshit in this thread now, did it? Must not be that serious to you :rolleyes:

btw- I spent a shitload of my "privileged money, whatever the fuck that is" on 100LL flying relief supplies after a hurricane, so I sort of do know a thing about what they do, nevermind working in shelters after Katrina. So bite me.

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3 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Didn't stop you from posting ignorant bullshit in this thread now, did it? Must not be that serious to you :rolleyes:

btw- I spent a shitload of my "privileged money, whatever the fuck that is" on 100LL flying relief supplies after a hurricane, so I sort of do know a thing about what they do, nevermind working in shelters after Katrina. So bite me.

Well it is a change from you whining about your saturated ground.  You dodged a bullet and I'm happy for you.  Just send your best wishes to the Carolinas as they appear much less lucky.  

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Pretty rich of you to participate in a sailing site while scolding others for minor but related thread drift that's tangentially related to another expensive hobby. 

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2 minutes ago, IStream said:

Pretty rich of you to participate in a sailing site while scolding others for minor but related thread drift that's tangentially related to another expensive hobby. 

I'm having a bad day but kudos on the word tangentially.  Outstanding!

I'll take a self-imposed week vacation as I even recognize I am being an ass.  

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2 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

I'm having a bad day but kudos on the word tangentially.  Outstanding!

I'll take a self-imposed week vacation as I even recognize I am being an ass.  

It happens to the best of us. See you on the other side.

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9 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

I'm having a bad day but kudos on the word tangentially.  Outstanding!

I'll take a self-imposed week vacation as I even recognize I am being an ass.  

If everyone did that it would be lonely around here! Chill out and post.

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48 minutes ago, ajbram said:

Frying pan flag now toast.

 

Based on the tear pattern, I would characterize it more as the secession of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Irony!

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31 minutes ago, ajbram said:

Frying pan flag now toast.

 

i don't even think the heavy shit has hit there yet. wind is still in the 40s.

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48 minutes ago, weightless said:

They do useful work. This chart from the aircraft observations is getting a little old now, but does give a feel for the shape of things. It probably misses the highest winds because of limited sampling. Please make every effort to stay safe.

2018AL06_AIRCTCWA_201809131200_SWHR.GIF

very cool to see the winds down to 15 knots in the southern eye wall.  And theoretically there's a "zero knots" spot in the very middle??

Best wishes to all in the path, and all the evacuees.  We just passed 13 years since Katrina, it's mostly in the rearview mirror now but will never be gone.  I didn't like being an evacuee (though the people of Baton Rouge could not have been nicer, or more generous), and then I didn't like going home and facing it.

 

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11 minutes ago, nolatom said:

And theoretically there's a "zero knots" spot in the very middle??

Yes. Here's modeling of FLo sliced in the vertical direction.

FLORENCE06L.2018091312.ns.png

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34 minutes ago, austin1972 said:

Shit just got real on that Fox News feed.

link?

 

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7 minutes ago, austin1972 said:

Gazebo is gonna be toast. It's a FB feed.

 

That's old now.... video is no longer live.

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Well crap, that one just went down too. 

From his FB page it has this note: Note: "This is a reporter camera and may be interrupted".

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4 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

Yes, somebody named Coriolis taught us that.  

Shakespeare’s tragedies, especially Coriolanus, have a lot to reach us about the human condition, but nothing about physics or meteorology.

:-)

 

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Hmm, it's working for me.

8 minutes ago, ajbram said:

That's old now.... video is no longer live.

Hmm, it's working for me.

44612918732_ed8c7592e6_b.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Slick470 said:

Updated feed.

The Paul Dellegatto is my local weather guy out of Tampa

 

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2 hours ago, LionessRacing said:

Trump is given to tweeting silly shit. 

The estimate of deaths in Puerto Rico is a very soft number, in truth nobody knows, as the government there is essentially incompetent as well as being fundamentally corrupt. As has been stated elsewhere the death toll due to Katrina is also a soft number as the population was partially evacuated, and some that passed due to the stress might have passed in any case. Whether the actual number is 1k, 2k, 3k, 4k or the upper range 8k is arguable. As he correctly notes it started low (the governor's estimate) and went up as they found bodies. The arguments of politicians such as mayor Cruz during the event with her cute little "resistance" t-shirts were more calculated to show defiance that to serve actual constituents. All you need to see is the pile of water and other supplies that were delivered to the island, and never distributed. 

The Federal Government here is tasked with helping the large scale logistics that the state/local can't manage, not wiping noses and handing out supplies locally. Differences in Puerto Rico and Katrina vs Houston and Florida storms is basically the competence of local/state governments. It's a lot easier to truck supplies in, than ship to a devastated port. Restoring power is a lot easier, when there was a viable infrastructure to restore. 

For what it's worth, the "Cajun Navy" and other private entities such as utility crews are pre-positioning to be able to assist with the detail work. None of that was feasible in the Caribbean. 

 

Time to head off to PA...

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1 hour ago, ajbram said:

Frying pan flag now toast.

 

Looks like it's still there, they moved the field of view

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1 hour ago, NaptimeAgain said:

Flag shredded.

Pretty sure 45 just tweeted that the flag getting desecrated is the Democrats’ fault.   :-)

Also, it’s getting “tremendously wet”.

(An actual Trump Hurricane Florence quote from the other day - perhaps referring, in a tremendous Freudian slip, to his Moscow hookers’ pee...)

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43 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Lets not PA this thread to death.............

Sorry - it was Florence's phallic flight path pic in the post right above mine that inspired comic gold :-)

Back on topic.

I remember as kid vacationing on the Outer Banks and evacuating when tropical storms threatened.  They were, in fact, (with apologies) tremendously wet.  Can only imagine the barrage down there now.  Being on the west coast (“wet coast”: it’s a rain forest) of Canada, I try to explain to people that the storms down there (hurricanes) are another level of storm, so much bigger than what folks in winter here call “storms”...

 

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I found Webb Chiles’ observations of Florence today interesting.  He’s on Hilton Head Island, by the Georgia border (so a bit far from the main hurricane area, but really only about 300 hundred miles south of Wilmington).  He’s also, of course, a very experienced sailor.  He writes that there was no particular sign of the approach of a massive hurricane.

“A pleasant day with some clouds that might be fringes of the Florence system.  I stood in the companionway last evening studying the sky trying to determine if I were at sea if it would have given me any inkling that a major hurricane was a few hundred miles away, and the answer is that it would not.  Neither would the barometer which remained moderately high and steady for the past two days.  Even now with Florence about one hundred miles off Wilmington, North Carolina, less than three hundred miles north of Hilton Head, the clouds are not threatening and the barometer has only dropped two millibars.”
 
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28 minutes ago, weightless said:

 

 

That is the best live explanation I have ever heard. This Levi Cowan guy also has a good  communication gift with terms like "stall and crawl" etc. Many weather authorities could take a  leaf out of his book on how to properly inform. I'm amazed a TV network hasn't made him an offer he can't refuse to rebroadcast his vlog 

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1 hour ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Pretty sure 45 just tweeted that the flag getting desecrated is the Democrats’ fault.   :-)

Also, it’s getting “tremendously wet”.

(An actual Trump Hurricane Florence quote from the other day - perhaps referring, in a tremendous Freudian slip, to his Moscow hookers’ pee...)

What's the difference between a garbonzo bean and a chickpea?

Trump has never had a garbonzo bean on his face.

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