Recommended Posts

Did you guys know that Jim Cantore of Weather Channel fame is 5'7". What a self promoting douche bag.

In Durham, we are getting some rain. I will spare you a video of me in my front yard reporting on this.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Bull City said:

Did you guys know that Jim Cantore of Weather Channel fame is 5'7". What a self promoting douche bag.

In Durham, we are getting some rain. I will spare you a video of me in my front yard reporting on this.

His bio states he is 5’8”. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Bull City said:

Did you guys know that Jim Cantore of Weather Channel fame is 5'7". What a self promoting douche bag.

In Durham, we are getting some rain. I will spare you a video of me in my front yard reporting on this.

my buddy in burlington said it has yet to be exciting, which is a good thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Lets not PA this thread to death.............

Nothing wrong with a bit of thread drift providing it has some context.

For instance disasters natural or otherwise send administrations into a spin. If the boss arrives too early he is critisised for getting in the way of relief efforts so leaves a bit of a buffer only then to be critisised for being insensitive to the plight of those effected. Then when they get to ground zero every word and nuance is analysed with a microscope. I recall TV footage of GWB reading to a kid in a classroom setting once and plastered all around the world was a freeze frame of the book being upside down.

This disaster will provide such fodder for Trump, in particular on account his international standing isn't that great and so journalists worldwide will be scribbling like crazy.

Normally you would expect him to be mindful of say his international green numbers below when crafting a Presidential response, but with this guy who knows.

FT_17.07.17_TrumpGlobalviews.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

The one hurricane we sailed through and then reached an anchorage seemed 10 times worse after dark. Probably wasn't really, but when you can't see the bow from the stern.....:o

Er, um, how do I say this?  What’s it like to sail through a hurricane?!  Seriously, what did you do?  (What can one do? Run? Stream warps astern while battened down, inside, hoping not to roll?)  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 minute ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

...Seriously, what did you do?  (What can one do? Run? Stream warps astern while battened down, inside, hoping not to roll?)  

I find the foetal position to be very effective.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Bull City said:

Did you guys know that Jim Cantore of Weather Channel fame is 5'7". What a self promoting douche bag.

I do know Bernie Ecclestone doesn't give a fuck he is 5' 4"..he just stands on his wallet to kiss the missus.

FILE-Slavica-Ecclestone-Moved-Out-From-Common-Villa-With-Bernie-Ecclestone-In-London.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

His bio states he is 5’8”. :D

Wearing four inch stilettos he "might" be 5'8".

The dude is a dwarf.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, ropetrick said:

Wearing four inch stilettos he "might" be 5'8".

The dude is a dwarf.

He thinks of it as low windage....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bait said:

Jack

been through a lot of tropical events in the past 22 years. More than I care to think about.  All east coast related. The worst of the ones I have dealt with really all had been daytime storms thankfully.

My experience is the opposite. Maybe landfall timing reality is 50/50.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Friend on the Neuse River (Bigfoot Creek) reported just over 10’ of surge a couple of hours ago. That puts 2” in his attached garage. Another 3 feet up the the floor of the house. Says rate has slowed to about 2”/hour so he is hopeful. His power has been out since about 1000 following a minor squall.  

Said there are about 100 boats holed up in the creek. First to drag was a sailboat when winds were about 20 knots earlier today. Naturally, it dragged into another sailboat and appeared to foul its anchor rode.  Nothing he could do but watch as his toys are put away.  He is afraid it will be carnage at first light.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From National Weather Service.

- Located about 80 miles east-southeast of Wilmington NC or about 140 miles east of Myrtle Beach SC.
- 33.9N 76.4W.
- Storm Intensity 100 mph.
- Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 5 mph.

This sucker is crawling and is going to hang over the coast/inner coast for two days as first thought. That is a fuckin lot of vertical water in one place.

5368942672596439604691993975919.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

From National Weather Service.

- Located about 80 miles east-southeast of Wilmington NC or about 140 miles east of Myrtle Beach SC.
- 33.9N 76.4W.
- Storm Intensity 100 mph.
- Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 5 mph.

This sucker is crawling and is going to hang over the coast/inner coast for two days as first thought. That is a fuckin lot of vertical water in one place.

5368942672596439604691993975919.jpg

Looks more and more like a repeat of Harvey...

Having lived through that one last year in Houston, I feel for "Caroliners"(?).

The only organizational difference I can see is that there was not an order from authorities to evacuate Houston.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Laurent said:

Looks more and more like a repeat of Harvey.

If so might get a podium finish for expensive.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

I do know Bernie Ecclestone doesn't give a fuck he is 5' 4"..he just stands on his wallet to kiss the missus.

FILE-Slavica-Ecclestone-Moved-Out-From-Common-Villa-With-Bernie-Ecclestone-In-London.jpg

Oh he gives a fuck.  Note that youthful compensatory hair style. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Blue Crab said:

Oh he gives a fuck.  Note that youthful compensatory hair style. 

He's standing on her dress, hoping for an extra millimeter.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Blue Crab said:

Oh he gives a fuck.  Note that youthful compensatory hair style. 

During the AC in Valencia, we had a visit from Bernie and his girlfriend, also Flavio Briatore and his model girlfriend. When they arrived they were due to go on deck of the Cup boat. Both women had very high heels and we were freaking out about them going through the deck. They were there to check out Valencia as a F1 course and were accompanied by the Major and Governor (all of whom are under corruption clouds now). Nobody was prepared to ask them to remove their shoes, As it happened they did not breach the deck. The contrast between Bernie and his girlfriend looked even more ridiculous in the flesh. Sorry about the drift.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still hasn't made landfall yet. Jeebus...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We just got the weather alert radio alarm for coastal flooding south of us on the Eastern Shore for some roads to be under 1-2 feet of water.

WTF? How is it getting all the way up here?????????

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

I do know Bernie Ecclestone doesn't give a fuck he is 5' 4"..he just stands on his wallet to kiss the missus.

FILE-Slavica-Ecclestone-Moved-Out-From-Common-Villa-With-Bernie-Ecclestone-In-London.jpg

As a short friend of mine would say:

 

Nose to nose my toes are in, 

Toes to  toes my nose is in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hundreds of people needing evacuation from New Bern, NC? Did they all listen to authorities that said to write their SSNs on their forearms? 

edit: it looks pretty damn far inland, so not surprising that it caught some by surprise. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, fprintf said:

Hundreds of people needing evacuation from New Bern, NC? Did they all listen to authorities that said to write their SSNs on their forearms? 

edit: it looks pretty damn far inland, so not surprising that it caught some by surprise. 

word of the day : Namaste

 

as in....ima not evacuating ....namaste here

 

my friend lives in New Bern and his boat is on the Neuse River.   He tied her up the best he could the other day and biugged out for Connecticut  for a few days 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those unfamiliar, New Bern and all the other towns around there are on flat ground not very far above sea level. You have to drive a LONG way before you are going uphill.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since Bernie’s girl isn’t going to satisfy this thread and I haven’t seen VWop...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A33F5D75-26CE-4C37-8469-5F9F72F3F656.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, welfinator said:

I really hope they do a follow up on that guy "it's not my first rodeo".  That is a floating billboard and he has no idea what a big storm does. I remember when a TS came through I went to secure some friends boats (was very sudden) and with the wind about 50 on a T10 the dock lines were taut enough to walk on them with no flex.   That guy will be either a lot smarter or a lot deader.  I know people who rode out hurricanes on their boats, not a single one said they would ever do it again.

RIP Capt Dumass.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Sail4beer said:

Since Bernie’s girl isn’t going to satisfy this thread and I haven’t seen VWop...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A33F5D75-26CE-4C37-8469-5F9F72F3F656.jpeg

There is something weird about her stance. To my eye she coud not be standing like this unless her left foot is standing on someting. Or perhaps the gravitational force on her right tit is so massive that she manages to balance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, fprintf said:

Hundreds of people needing evacuation from New Bern, NC? Did they all listen to authorities that said to write their SSNs on their forearms? 

edit: it looks pretty damn far inland, so not surprising that it caught some by surprise. 

I doubt it caught anybody by surprise, other than how high the flooding is/was. A lot of people put off preparing their boat, thinking that they have plenty of time...... you know how, when you have to go to work, that last 15 minutes just melts away? That's how the 3 days before a hurricane go. You try to put in an hour or two on stuff you know needs to be done, but suddenly it's raining, wind rising, and everything is in motion.

NOAA was predicting 10~12 ft storm surge in the New Bern area. Most people assume their local elevation is higher than it really is. It's also a big retirement area, lotsa stubborn crabby old people. Another factor is the lack of shelter. They need shelter (on high ground!) for tens of thousands, they have shelter for hundreds. And no pets. There aren't any sports arenas or any other big public buildings, that kind of thing just doesn't exist in this area (which is part of why I like it).

 

30 minutes ago, dacapo said:

word of the day : Namaste

 

as in....ima not evacuating ....namaste here

 

my friend lives in New Bern and his boat is on the Neuse River.   He tied her up the best he could the other day and biugged out for Connecticut  for a few days 

We were lucky and managed to get hauled out, in the only boat yard that is on relatively high ground (12~15' is my guess) -and- filled with gravel. Most of the local boat yards are low and on soft sand/muck.

We may be living on the boat for while. OTOH it looks like we may finally have de-cluttered the house.

I just hope our neighbors are OK. There are a couple dozen people who decided not to evacuate, there's a roll call of the neighborhood going this morning.

FB-Doug

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

New Bern is a beautiful little town....Hatteras also has the plant there

This morning, New Bern is a WET beautiful little town!

Haven't heard of any fatalities yet, so that's good (keeping fingers crossed).

The Hattaras plant is on some of the highest ground along the river. Fantastic facility. Been thru some big ups & downs though.

FB- Doug

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Er, um, how do I say this?  What’s it like to sail through a hurricane?!  Seriously, what did you do?  (What can one do? Run? Stream warps astern while battened down, inside, hoping not to roll?)  

I couldn't say about being out in the ocean in one. We were in a Cat 1 in the Bay, so at 65-70 knots max at the worst. I have been in worse thunderstorms. Issue was it didn't last for 10 minutes, it went on for hours and hours. Waves were maybe 7-8 max and wind and waves both were on the nose, we tacked back and forth for hours and kept crossing the same buoy. The storm was sucking water toward itself and we were trying to get away and could not do it.

About sunset we realized it was still getting worse and made for the Little Choptank. By then we were down to the triple-reefed main and a storm jib. This was the pre-GPS days and it was raining so hard that between that and the spray you frequently could not see the bow :o Making the entrance was some tricky nav work,and once inside one of those hurricane bands you see on the radar came across the marsh sounding like Satan's vacuum cleaner combined with a freight train. We laid over on our beam, and the main departed company with the mast and streamed out horizontally :o:o

We managed to get anchored in a good spot blind and had 150 feet of rode in 10 feet of water. The rest of the night was easy, the big gusts came across and the nylon stretched out like a huge rubber band. No worries about surge and dock lines, we just chilled out because their was fuck-all we could do if the anchor let loose.

* Now in 2018 with SSB radios and sat terminals and so on, the best technique at sea is to find out where the storm is going and be someplace else!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Further research reveals that she can stand on her own 2 feet with a little help

1D017430-60DE-4B59-A23E-7A496C3371F3.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Omer said:

There is something weird about her stance. To my eye she coud not be standing like this unless her left foot is standing on someting. Or perhaps the gravitational force on her right tit is so massive that she manages to balance.

The girl looks like her legs are about a foot long. Must be leaning into a wide angle lens. Note to wife: I only study these photos to analyze focal length and exposure ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

This morning, New Bern is a WET beautiful little town!

Haven't heard of any fatalities yet, so that's good (keeping fingers crossed).

The Hattaras plant is on some of the highest ground along the river. Fantastic facility. Been thru some big ups & downs though.

FB- Doug

Yeah I did a teak install there....highest ground around ..however much is at haul out /launch level...I was there 10 days and only went back and forth from the Hampton Inn...we were signed off at 10 AM and our flight out was not until 7 PM so we went into town. It was a beautiful May day with clear crisp sky and air...I was so impressed I went back that fall with my wife for a vaca there and surrounding areas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, fprintf said:

Hundreds of people needing evacuation from New Bern, NC? ...

edit: it looks pretty damn far inland, so not surprising that it caught some by surprise. 

Funny how that works. I think the Nuese is the biggest river on the East Coast, or something; definitely tidal, and is connected to Pamlico Sound which is quite large and curiously is connected to the Atlantic Ocean. As oceans go, the Atlantic isn't huge but you'd have to admit it's substantial.

Then there's the hurricane winds pushing too much of the ocean into the sound, up the river, and hopefully not into mah pickup parked at the New Bern airport, EWN to the cognoscenti, but I digress.

Now, you've heard of the moon I suppose. It's not just over Miami anymore. It's somehow connected to this scenario and affects the water levels pretty regularly. That's all I know.

Then there is the rain. A lot of rain. Too much. Many people are saying it. The best people. Even the love of mah life, Dylan Dryer is saying it. And gravity brings it down to ... wait for it:  the ocean, the sound, the river, and even the land! desperately tying to keep its soggy head in the soggy air. Hell, even prez Trump knows it's wet even If he just heard it from his staff yesterday.

There are boats in New Bern. Big boats. That alone should tell you something. Then, there's that SHIT HAPPENS thing.

Hope this helps you, "Captain."

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

All the rivers leading into the Pamlico will crest on TUESDAY. Their floods are just getting going!

Going to have a lot of hog waste to deal with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Bull City said:

Going to have a lot of hog waste to deal with.

Should be a fantastic spring flower bloom....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Bull City said:

Going to have a lot of hog waste to deal with.

I loves me some smell of hog waste in the mornin'. Evenin' too. Now that the Chinese own the big pig farms, maybe they'll pay for the cleanup. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Blue Crab said:

I loves me some smell of hog waste in the mornin'. Evenin' too. Now that the Chinese own the big pig farms, maybe they'll pay for the cleanup. 

 

Should be good political fodder for the fall elections...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Should be a fantastic spring flower bloom....

Or algae bloom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, VWAP said:

North Carolina Man Plans To Ride Out Hurricane Florence On His Boat

 

https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2018/09/13/hurricane-florence-man-staying-on-boat/

Should not be a problem....if the Weather Channel knuckle heads can stand out in it...he should be able stay aboard and tend lines....winds will not be a big issue and a rising tide raises all boats

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

I doubt it caught anybody by surprise, other than how high the flooding is/was. A lot of people put off preparing their boat, thinking that they have plenty of time...... you know how, when you have to go to work, that last 15 minutes just melts away? That's how the 3 days before a hurricane go. You try to put in an hour or two on stuff you know needs to be done, but suddenly it's raining, wind rising, and everything is in motion.

NOAA was predicting 10~12 ft storm surge in the New Bern area. Most people assume their local elevation is higher than it really is. It's also a big retirement area, lotsa stubborn crabby old people. Another factor is the lack of shelter. They need shelter (on high ground!) for tens of thousands, they have shelter for hundreds. And no pets. There aren't any sports arenas or any other big public buildings, that kind of thing just doesn't exist in this area (which is part of why I like it).

 

We were lucky and managed to get hauled out, in the only boat yard that is on relatively high ground (12~15' is my guess) -and- filled with gravel. Most of the local boat yards are low and on soft sand/muck.

We may be living on the boat for while. OTOH it looks like we may finally have de-cluttered the house.

I just hope our neighbors are OK. There are a couple dozen people who decided not to evacuate, there's a roll call of the neighborhood going this morning.

FB-Doug

i hope your home isn;t too uncluttered....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Marcjsmith said:

-2:14:40  they either lost the camera feed, or the tower is gone or they lost power...

 

is it back on?  the weather has calmed down a bit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dacapo said:

is it back on?  the weather has calmed down a bit

unless that rig platform is manned and someone ran up another flag......it may be old video

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

unless that rig platform is manned and someone ran up another flag......it may be old video

Just thinking that. I doubt running up a new flag was at all a priority if anyone was out there. Why not wait til after the rain subsides. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, dacapo said:

is it back on?  the weather has calmed down a bit

The insert "livecam highlights" would suggest old stuff and sunshine doesn't really match 10:30 am. I would say: not back on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, dacapo said:

is it back on?  the weather has calmed down a bit

new flag though,

 so it's either old vid or someone replaced the flag...

  by the looks of the current Sat images,  the platform should be experiencing much worse conditions than shown.

 i'm guessing archived vid rolling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Should not be a problem....if the Weather Channel knuckle heads can stand out in it...he should be able stay aboard and tend lines....winds will not be a big issue and a rising tide raises all boats

He has the yacht of a true seaman  semen stain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sail4beer said:

Further research reveals that she can stand on her own 2 feet with a little help

1D017430-60DE-4B59-A23E-7A496C3371F3.jpeg

She looks like she knows how to use that oar. I wouldn't mess with her.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

new flag though,

 so it's either old vid or someone replaced the flag...

  by the looks of the current Sat images,  the platform should be experiencing much worse conditions than shown.

 i'm guessing archived vid rolling.

Station is still online reporting 46 G 64 from the SW.  That has to be archived vid.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Sean said:

Nasty. 

21B8CCED-64C4-4F4D-890E-A34D1EA0E0C4.jpeg

 

1 hour ago, Bull City said:

Going to have a lot of hog waste to deal with.

More to the point what about all them pigs???...or did they just put them all on a Greyhound bus?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

More to the point what about all them pigs???...or did they just put them all on a Greyhound bus?

LONESOME+M+TRUCKING+Inc.+CANTONMENT+FLOR

 

If you haven't been stuck behind/near one in traffic, you don't even know you're born.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HFC Hunter said:

Ride with the Duck, not Pigpen

 

I love that movie.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, HFC Hunter said:

Ride with the Duck, not Pigpen

Any movie that had Ali McGraw in I watched ....with hands in my pockets 

Ali MacGraw style The Getaway.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Nothing wrong with a bit of thread drift providing it has some context.

For instance disasters natural or otherwise send administrations into a spin. If the boss arrives too early he is critisised for getting in the way of relief efforts so leaves a bit of a buffer only then to be critisised for being insensitive to the plight of those effected. Then when they get to ground zero every word and nuance is analysed with a microscope. I recall TV footage of GWB reading to a kid in a classroom setting once and plastered all around the world was a freeze frame of the book being upside down.

This disaster will provide such fodder for Trump, in particular on account his international standing isn't that great and so journalists worldwide will be scribbling like crazy.

Normally you would expect him to be mindful of say his international green numbers below when crafting a Presidential response, but with this guy who knows.

FT_17.07.17_TrumpGlobalviews.png

Which Aussie PM has lasted long enough to have a Global view survey done, not that anyone outside of Oz would particularly notice or care. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

More to the point what about all them pigs???...or did they just put them all on a Greyhound bus?

Hog heaven for them!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To be fair to Aussies, they’re just looking for a PM that can hold his end up. 

Bob at 88 still knocking ‘em down:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Observing from a distance it seems that the forecast of biblically epic winds and ultra-mega storm surge did not materialize. 

What's the explanation?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Parma said:

Observing from a distance it seems that the forecast of biblically epic winds and ultra-mega storm surge did not materialize. 

What's the explanation?

Weather Channel hype along with local officials CYA combined with all the resort seminars they attend where they learn the ultra caution.... see CYA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Parma said:

Observing from a distance it seems that the forecast of biblically epic winds and ultra-mega storm surge did not materialize. 

What's the explanation?

It’s the start of the real Bible Belt down there, so things get biblically referenced as a rule (one of the guv’nors actually did use that phrase...but it’s hard to tell from that, though, if he believes in Noah’s ark...

To many people, Noah’s Ark sounds like a fantastic voyage that never could have happened. Ancient man didn’t have the technology. A single family would not have enough time, manpower, or resources to complete such a massive undertaking. Oh really? 

“A Flood of Evidence,” the book created to address the countless questions asked about the Flood and Noah’s Ark over the years!  It contains what you need to know in a way that’s easy to read.”

https://answersingenesis.org/noahs-ark/fantastic-voyage-how-could-noah-build-ark/

Phew!  Anyway, it probably makes for good politicalspeak by officials down there, since many people won’t listen otherwise.

65FCB432-924E-4C6C-959E-2D8DF467874A.jpeg

F87A8741-CF60-4097-84CF-66585F929EA5.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Parma said:

Observing from a distance it seems that the forecast of biblically epic winds and ultra-mega storm surge did not materialize. 

What's the explanation?

Probably similar to the explanation of Hurricane Patricia back in 2015.  That one was in the Pacific of the Mexican Coast.   There is a thread on here somewhere about it.

Maximum sustained wind speed of 215 mph which by the time it made landfall in a rather less populated area was down to 150 mph and quickly petered out after that.

Meanwhile, over in the Philippines, they are going to soon be dealing with  Super Typhoon Mankhut (equivalent to Cat 5 hurricane) https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/14/asia/typhoon-mangkhut-philippines-intl/index.html with current wind speeds of 180 mph.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Parma said:

Observing from a distance it seems that the forecast of biblically epic winds and ultra-mega storm surge did not materialize. 

What's the explanation?

   I have two thoughts,

   on Wednesday eve/night, there was an eyewall replacement cycle starting, with the eye loosing shape and starting to wobble off center.  At the same time there were 2 or so injections of dry air bands .  The storm seemed to lose intensity and grow in diameter.

  On thursday, the storm track progress slowed from ~15 kts to ~5kts.  This caused a churning in place of the surface and upwelling of some colder water, further degrading the storm.

  Either of these scenarios is difficult to forecast in advance, other to say it's a possibility.  The NHC would rather error on alarmist side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect that lots of the low country blackwater rivers are going to get a good scouring with this storm.   Steamers - hope you and everyone down near ya are weathering this OK - I think that the bigger worries are going to come next week when the rain catch in the upper valleys start draining back down.   North of the James in the Shenandoah valley?   Everything flows north into the Potomac - and the Valley is a huge funnel.  I expect to see lots of localized flooding around here next week,. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Raked Aft\\ said:

   I have two thoughts,

   on Wednesday eve/night, there was an eyewall replacement cycle starting, with the eye loosing shape and starting to wobble off center.  At the same time there were 2 or so injections of dry air bands .  The storm seemed to lose intensity and grow in diameter.

  On thursday, the storm track progress slowed from ~15 kts to ~5kts.  This caused a churning in place of the surface and upwelling of some colder water, further degrading the storm.

  Either of these scenarios is difficult to forecast in advance, other to say it's a possibility.  The NHC would rather error on alarmist side.

Also 20 knots of wind shear that came on after the initial expectations were set.

FLo is a very serious, dangerous and damaging bit of weather. That it might have been worse will be small comfort many.

Don't really know yet but subjectively, it looks to me that the storm is within the expected range of forecast error. NHC tries to keep most of the forecast risk to the low side. This is a good policy. There is often quite a lot of short term change in the modeling. NHC tries to limit the change from forecast to forecast. So, they build in hysteresis. In a forecast with a strong trend the official forecast tends to lag. This too, is good policy, IMO.

If you've been getting your forecast expectations from the media then you've been doing it wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Innocent Bystander said:

Friend on the Neuse River (Bigfoot Creek) reported just over 10’ of surge a couple of hours ago. That puts 2” in his attached garage. Another 3 feet up the the floor of the house. Says rate has slowed to about 2”/hour so he is hopeful. His power has been out since about 1000 following a minor squall.  

Said there are about 100 boats holed up in the creek. First to drag was a sailboat when winds were about 20 knots earlier today. Naturally, it dragged into another sailboat and appeared to foul its anchor rode.  Nothing he could do but watch as his toys are put away.  He is afraid it will be carnage at first light.

 

They are back in touch.  Flooding topped out at about 12' of surge/wind driven tide and it started dropping a little around midnight as the wind clocked around to the East.  Got to18" deep in the garage and about the same short of entering the house so water in the crawl space but not into the floor beams.  Current height of the creek is 4' above normal, so down 8' from the crest.  Constant heavy rain at close to 1"/hr since 0600 today.  Upstream runoff will keep the water level up for several days but storm driven surge has ended for them.  They were lucky.  

No word yet on what happened in the creek as far as sheltered boats.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Daughters in Charleston say they are just going to get some tropical storm winds for a while, sounds like they dodged the bullet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

It’s the start of the real Bible Belt down there, so things get biblically referenced as a rule (one of the guv’nors actually did use that phrase...but it’s hard to tell from that, though, if he believes in Noah’s ark...

To many people, Noah’s Ark sounds like a fantastic voyage that never could have happened. Ancient man didn’t have the technology. A single family would not have enough time, manpower, or resources to complete such a massive undertaking. Oh really? 

“A Flood of Evidence,” the book created to address the countless questions asked about the Flood and Noah’s Ark over the years!  It contains what you need to know in a way that’s easy to read.”

https://answersingenesis.org/noahs-ark/fantastic-voyage-how-could-noah-build-ark/

Phew!  Anyway, it probably makes for good politicalspeak by officials down there, since many people won’t listen otherwise.

65FCB432-924E-4C6C-959E-2D8DF467874A.jpeg

F87A8741-CF60-4097-84CF-66585F929EA5.jpeg

Why is the dude white?  Is that Russell Crowe?  How many sugar gliders were on board? Pole cats?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Blue Crab said:

I loves me some smell of hog waste in the mornin'. Evenin' too. Now that the Chinese own the big pig farms, maybe they'll pay for the cleanup. 

 

You'll get a lifetime supply of moo shu pork

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

I suspect that lots of the low country blackwater rivers are going to get a good scouring with this storm.   Steamers - hope you and everyone down near ya are weathering this OK - I think that the bigger worries are going to come next week when the rain catch in the upper valleys start draining back down.   North of the James in the Shenandoah valley?   Everything flows north into the Potomac - and the Valley is a huge funnel.  I expect to see lots of localized flooding around here next week,. 

 

See, If the Media are going to Blame Trump for the storm, he's gonna use it to flush out the Swamp 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, LionessRacing said:

Which Aussie PM has lasted long enough to have a Global view survey done, not that anyone outside of Oz would particularly notice or care. 

In point of fact, 99% of people inside of Oz wouldn't care either.

FKT

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only pms Aussie I can think of is Julia somebody, the red thing. I'd guess Meli is on the old side. Nice choos tho. Oh yeah, there's Random. As if he wasn't weird enuff already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, swangtang said:

 

What a bunch of shit.  And we wonder why people say "fake news."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites