Jud - s/v Sputnik

Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

Recommended Posts

Oct 3, 2018 departure? (Says homepage of her site, I just noticed: that’s tomorrow!  Only quickly glanced at her blog, but sounds like still trying to sort a few things out, and getting stuff shipped from US to Canada is delaying things.)

Blog:  https://svnereida.com/blog

Goodspeed!  (I’m no god believer, except Neptune and Lady Luck, and maybe a few more :-) ).  For a 70-something year old, she doesn’t not give up easily, that’s for sure!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Her window is rapidly closing - again.

Hope she gets it together in time this time - she is a remarkable woman.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeanne had originally planned to leave on Oct 1.  When I looked at the WX a week ago, I thought that she would want to wait until Oct 3 or 4 in order to be able to get out the Strait and into the Pacific.  So tomorrow might be OK, although she's going to still have very light winds in the Strait and then some dead air off Cape Flattery.  Friday she gets some strong wind, but won't be able to get much south in it.  She can probably get offshore though, and on on Saturday she should see some north wind.  I hope she can avoid the gale conditions that will be moving south from the Oregon border towards Eureka and San Francisco.  Perhaps she will be far enough offshore to avoid the worst of that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, valis said:

Friday she gets some strong wind, but won't be able to get much south in it.  She can probably get offshore though, and on on Saturday she should see some north wind.  I hope she can avoid the gale conditions that will be moving south from the Oregon border towards Eureka and San Francisco.  Perhaps she will be far enough offshore to avoid the worst of that.

I know she's used to the southern ocean but...  Wave forecast looks grim on Friday and Tuesday without much relief in between:

https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,2018-10-10-00,45.813,-122.563,5,m:eXQacAd

Windy1003a.thumb.jpg.3d4b639cccdb4fbca3f4e2a438b9315b.jpg

Windy1003b.thumb.jpg.6d858c3b0f7c83377a8fe5f87ede20ad.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not a really pleasant time to be leaving. It was a raw cold in Victoria today. 22 knots out by Carmanah but it's a good push. We'll hope for more clement weather soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

She's about halfway out the Strait, with decent wind and light currents.  But the wind is dropping (exactly when and where depends on which forecast model we look at), and she hits really light air by the time she reaches the Pacific.  She's not going to be going much of anywhere tomorrow, and then there's a low-pressure system moving in on Friday.  I don't think she will be able to get on the good side of it.  Her best bet may be to punch WNW into the low, and then by Friday midnight the low will have moved inland and she can ride the NE edge of the low and get south.  But the Friday mid-day wind, while it will be coming from her stern, will be pretty nasty.  36 kts according to NAM5km.  Other models are less-focused and not as strong, but still unpleasant.  The waves are also pretty confused in that region, but this would avoid the worst of the wave height.

Jeanne just checked into the 0300Z Pacific Seafarers Net (ham radio, 14.300 MHz).  I couldn't hear her from my NorCal location, but the net control operator was just able to get her report.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, valis said:

She's about halfway out the Strait, with decent wind and light currents.  But the wind is dropping (exactly when and where depends on which forecast model we look at), and she hits really light air by the time she reaches the Pacific.  She's not going to be going much of anywhere tomorrow, and then there's a low-pressure system moving in on Friday.  I don't think she will be able to get on the good side of it.  Her best bet may be to punch WNW into the low, and then by Friday midnight the low will have moved inland and she can ride the NE edge of the low and get south.  But the Friday mid-day wind, while it will be coming from her stern, will be pretty nasty.  36 kts according to NAM5km.  Other models are less-focused and not as strong, but still unpleasant.  The waves are also pretty confused in that region, but this would avoid the worst of the wave height.

Jeanne just checked into the 0300Z Pacific Seafarers Net (ham radio, 14.300 MHz).  I couldn't hear her from my NorCal location, but the net control operator was just able to get her report.

Thabks for the analysis, which I may actually understand one day :-). Learning...

Reminds me I’ve got to get my radio and tuner and antenna set up at home...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Yikes.  

BTW, what are you using to get those images/tnat info?

He's using windy.com (https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?gfsWaves,waves,48.023,-127.013,8)  On the right-hand edge of the window you will be able to select wind, waves, and many other parameters.  On the bottom-right corner you can select from several model data-sources.  The bottom of the screen lets you change the displayed date.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, valis said:

She's about halfway out the Strait, with decent wind and light currents.  But the wind is dropping (exactly when and where depends on which forecast model we look at), and she hits really light air by the time she reaches the Pacific.  She's not going to be going much of anywhere tomorrow, and then there's a low-pressure system moving in on Friday.  I don't think she will be able to get on the good side of it.  Her best bet may be to punch WNW into the low, and then by Friday midnight the low will have moved inland and she can ride the NE edge of the low and get south.  But the Friday mid-day wind, while it will be coming from her stern, will be pretty nasty.  36 kts according to NAM5km.  Other models are less-focused and not as strong, but still unpleasant.  The waves are also pretty confused in that region, but this would avoid the worst of the wave height.

Jeanne just checked into the 0300Z Pacific Seafarers Net (ham radio, 14.300 MHz).  I couldn't hear her from my NorCal location, but the net control operator was just able to get her report.

Valis... when I head offshore, I'm setting you up as my wx router.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

BTW, what are you using to get those images/tnat info?

Windy.com is the best user interface presentation of weather data I have ever seen.

  1. Choose a data "layer" from the right sidebar (see "more layers") - default is "Wind" but I find "Wind gusts" to be useful too, along with "Waves".
  2. Click the "play" button at bottom left or click a day/time along the bottom.
  3. Pan and zoom by dragging the mouse, click anywhere for a pop-up showing data value at that location.

Brilliant!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's what I wrote on Jeanne's facebook page (https://www.facebook.com/jeanne.socrates)

Jeannie has made it out through the Strait and is into the Pacific. 
Three hours ago she was sailing southwest at 5.5 kts. As expected, her AIS signal is no longer being picked up by marinetraffic.com, so until we can figure out where to find her tracker we will have to rely on her daily radio position reports and occasional AIS satellite intercepts. 
She still has decent wind, but that's going to go very light, and then a nasty low-pressure system will move through her position. It's going to be a tough couple of days (and bumpy, with fairly large and steep seas) and then she gets some good winds for getting south.

Here's her last AIS position, about three hours old now:

 

 

10-04-18 1300Z position.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ProaSailor said:

Windy.com is the best user interface presentation of weather data I have ever seen.

  1. Choose a data "layer" from the right sidebar (see "more layers") - default is "Wind" but I find "Wind gusts" to be useful too, along with "Waves".
  2. Click the "play" button at bottom left or click a day/time along the bottom.
  3. Pan and zoom by dragging the mouse, click anywhere for a pop-up showing data value at that location.

Brilliant!

Thanks.  I plan to start Starpath Navigation’s online wx course some time this winter, when I have more time (which never seems to materialize...funny thing, free time... :-) )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Ajax said:

Valis... when I head offshore, I'm setting you up as my wx router.

I'm no Stan Honey -- you should talk to Ish and the rest of my crew on our 2014 trip from Friday Harbor to San Francisco!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, valis said:

As expected, her AIS signal is no longer being picked up by marinetraffic.com, so until we can figure out where to find her tracker

Buried on her home page is this: "Where are Jeanne and "Nereida" now? ..... Click here to find out" - this is the link:
http://mmsn-shiptrak.herokuapp.com/?callsign=kc2iov&filter=30&_m=f

Unfortunately, that page is generating this JavaScript error: "You have exceeded your request quota for this API" (Google Maps) - too many page views already!

Quote

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, valis said:

I'm no Stan Honey -- you should talk to Ish and the rest of my crew on our 2014 trip from Friday Harbor to San Francisco!

There is only ONE Stan Honey!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, ProaSailor said:

Buried on her home page is this: "Where are Jeanne and "Nereida" now? ..... Click here to find out" - this is the link:
http://mmsn-shiptrak.herokuapp.com/?callsign=kc2iov&filter=30&_m=f

Unfortunately, that page is generating this JavaScript error: "You have exceeded your request quota for this API" (Google Maps) - too many page views already!

 

I tried that link on her website and got a chart with her position from last-night's Pacific Seafarer's radio check-in.  I just tried it again and got the same thing.  I think we're just going to get her once-daily radio reports from that site (when she can make them), not a sat-tracker position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Thanks.  I plan to start Starpath Navigation’s online wx course some time this winter, when I have more time (which never seems to materialize...funny thing, free time... :-) )

That's why I signed up for the classroom (though abbreviated) ASA version.  Same materials, same tests.  But it presented deadlines and forced me to do the work. Even though, as usual, there was no time available...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just read Jefe's book. Didn't think I'd learn about the physiological effects of bread mold. Good luck and god-speed Jeanne!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For weather, Steve Dashew's book is quite good at explaining the 500 mB chart. Free download of it. Takes days to read; settle in for a week's evening reading to really digest.

https://www.setsail.com/mwh.pdf

I've also liked this one:

9780070120310.jpg

You can't read enough about weather before setting out for long sailing trips. A lot of sailing magazines probably still have old weather articles available online too.

As climate change brings more changes to the atmosphere, beware the shoulder seasons, when summer turns to winter around the equinox. Lots of different heating the atmosphere. Jeanne as usual is a bit late, best of luck to her.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tomorrow (Friday) looks like a long, unpleasant day where she will be.  Southerly wind gusting to 44 knots by early afternoon (1300), with waves peaking at 10' every 7 seconds.  Wind relief forecast after midnight Friday as northerly winds develop, though still very strong until Sunday morning.

Windy1004a.jpg

Windy1004b.jpg

Windy1004c.jpg

Windy1004d.jpg

Windy1004e.jpg

Windy1004f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, ProaSailor said:

Tomorrow (Friday) looks like a long, unpleasant day where she will be.  Southerly wind gusting to 44 knots by early afternoon (1300), with waves peaking at 10' every 7 seconds:

I don't think she will be as far south as you seem to be showing her.  If anything, she's going to be blown north before the worst hits, and I'd rather be north of that incoming low anyway.  [edit:  Depending on the model, north of the Strait is pretty awful too.]

I was wondering what model you were using for the wind, since I haven't been seeing anything quite as bad -- then I noticed that you were showing gusts, rather than regular wind.  I suppose that's fair, since it's the gusts (and waves) that do the damage.  Whatever model we use, it's still going to be a rough patch for her.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Victoria gave her a nice sendoff. Those classy harbour ferries....

"Three of the tiny Victoria Hbr ferries (some of the famed 'ballet dancers'!) were to be part of my escort - they formed a 'V' ahead of us as we made our way to the fuel dock to top up the main tank (diesel needed for charging the batteries using either my small generator, or the main engine in neutral, when wind and solar power aren't enough) before continuing on to the Harbour entrance.

What a delight to see them ahead of me, with a Harbour Patrol boat ahead and astern of our convoy, blue lights flashing, and some friends in three saiboats..."

Thanks for the links Valis. https://svnereida.com/blog/4877-day-1-wednesday-3rd-october-2018-a-wonderful-send-off-and-start

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing like starting a passage in heavy weather with no time to get your legs. Idk about her, but I'd be feeling like shit right about now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, toddster said:

That's why I signed up for the classroom (though abbreviated) ASA version.  Same materials, same tests.  But it presented deadlines and forced me to do the work. Even though, as usual, there was no time available...

For a course, deadlines are very good, I agree.  (Alas, being Canada, no ASA up here, but I’ll see if I can find a suitable equivalent course).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Raz'r said:

I just read Jefe's book. Didn't think I'd learn about the physiological effects of bread mold. Good luck and god-speed Jeanne!

Yes, google LSD and rye/ergot...there are historical records of medieval German peasants eating mouldy rye and being possessed by the devil, or some such happenings... :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Zonker said:

For weather, Steve Dashew's book is quite good at explaining the 500 mB chart. Free download of it. Takes days to read; settle in for a week's evening reading to really digest.

https://www.setsail.com/mwh.pdf

I've also liked this one:

You can't read enough about weather before setting out for long sailing trips. A lot of sailing magazines probably still have old weather articles available online too.

As climate change brings more changes to the atmosphere, beware the shoulder seasons, when summer turns to winter around the equinox. Lots of different heating the atmosphere. Jeanne as usual is a bit late, best of luck to her.

Thanks for this.  

Indeed, re: historical storm seasons...the first tropical cyclone of the Pacific just recorded the other day, a month earlier than “normal”, as someone in another thread noted the other day: 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hove to maybe?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Her tracker seems to really like reporting "1.9 kts", although it has occasionally shown higher and lower speeds.  When I measure the distance run over the last two hours I get an average speed of about 2.5 kts.  She is running back along her prior track, and unless she's hove-to, she's got the wind on her quarter.  She's got about 20 kts of wind from the SSE, and around noon the wind will be peaking to around 29 kts.  By midnight she should be able to go south again in moderate winds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you guys for the great updates! I've learned a ton following this thread and alctel's thread. 

It is fascinating to watch her west coast passage unfold "real-time" between Windy, her tracker updates, and the various recaps/blog entries. She is one tough lady!

Tim

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since Jeanne is still fairly close to Cape Flattery, we can get a good real-time look at the wind and sea-state by watching the buoy at the entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca.  I put together a webpage I use to see what;s going on in the PNW.  The JdF buoy is the second one down on the page, showing 29-kt gusts: 

http://www.sailvalis.com/pnwbuoys.html

Click on the buoy chart to get to the buoy's NOAA webpage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NAM5km model has the low a little west of the ECMWF9km model, but not by much.  I've been using NAM since the windspeed seems to better match the JdF buoy reported windspeed, but I don't know if this is significant.

Did you get a "model comparison" preview this morning on windy.com?  I played with it a bit, and now I can't find it.  It looked interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys may know this, but you can also display some of the weather buoys and stations on Windy. Some of the buoys unfortunately don't show up for some reason (e.g. a lot of the Environment Canada buoys). Others only show up if you zoom in pretty close. The US offshore buoys 300 miles off the coast show up pretty easily as does the one off the Columbia. Valis your buoy #46087 shows up if you zoom in close enough. It's remarkable how accurate the models seem to be some times.

I circled the button to turn these on in Windy in red in the screenshot below.

Tim

 windy_socrates.thumb.jpg.7f0056c6635916cc3f80b503137f3088.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, valis said:

Did you get a "model comparison" preview this morning on windy.com?

Not sure what you mean?  The "eye" just seems to be passing to the east faster than I recall from yesterday's model.

This is now (~1400) - SE @ 29 knots, gusting to 45 knots:

Windy1005d.thumb.jpg.c257fc6fe71bf6df7657621d7e8fc392.jpg

Windy1005e.thumb.jpg.d1ee7ccc3b16403cf5521012e168bc30.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, sv patience said:

You guys may know this, but you can also display some of the weather buoys and stations on Windy. Some of the buoys unfortunately don't show up for some reason (e.g. a lot of the Environment Canada buoys). Others only show up if you zoom in pretty close. The US offshore buoys 300 miles off the coast show up pretty easily as does the one off the Columbia. Valis your buoy #46087 shows up if you zoom in close enough. It's remarkable how accurate the models seem to be some times.

I circled the button to turn these on in Windy in red in the screenshot below.

Tim

 

What the heck - countries’ EEZ’s only extend 200 miles offshore (I think). The US has buoys 300 miles out?!  (Also didn’t realize the continental shelf went out that far.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd seen this thread appear and assumed someone had posted in an old thread from the previous record, but no, she's off again! Awesome.  I just read the history: https://svnereida.com/history  What a story of perseverance. Well, perseverance and an adequate financial situation.  I like that this is sort of the anti-Golden Globe, with an old person in a new design (built 2009) instead of a young person in an old design. And with proper weather reports!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dunno what the offshore buoys are primary used for, but they are quite a ways out there. There is a string of 6 or 7 of them running up/down the west coast. I think most of them are operated by NOAA. I looked up one of them, and it is anchored in 4000 meters of water... way off the continental shelf. Environment Canada has some buoys out there too, but I can't seem to find them in Windy for some reason. There are some inshore buoys as well, but you have to zoom in to see them. Here's a screenshot of the string of offshore buoys in Windy:

windy_buoys.thumb.jpg.ddfbb0326338dc879efc707be727b597.jpg

Tim

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, sv patience said:

I dunno what the offshore buoys are primary used for, but they are quite a ways out there

NOAA has buoys all over the world. Last time I was in Samoa there was a research ship taking a break from their task of setting big drift buoys out in the middle of the tropical Pacific. There are various types with different sensor and coms packages. Some of the buoy data goes directly into GFS, EC, WWIII, NOGAPS, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the road again, doing 5.8 knots, heading 213 degrees.  Looks like she turned south by 2100 Friday evening, almost eight hours ago.

http://www.gsattrack.com/Anonymous/svnereida

tracker1006a.thumb.jpg.077a251c144258fe448b11ea6a085b2f.jpg

Blog update: Fri5Oct Wind up to 40-50kt earlier, big seas to match, but now eased to 17kt

Quote

Friday 5th Oct 7pm PDT

Suddenly the wind has eased from the high 30s - 40s, gusting 50 something of earlier today. Big, rough seas were the norm but less now, although still quite rough.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Her blog is offline due to "Bandwidth Limit Exceeded".  As of 1500 Sunday, she has emerged from a light air slow patch and is trucking south at 5.8 knots, heading 199 degrees, ~136 nm west of Lincoln City, Oregon, ~178 nm north of California (at the wind speed marker below).  Wind direction is good (NW for days, less than 20 knots now) so by late Tuesday, she'll be approaching a persistent rough area off Eureka, Cape Mendocino, where wind will be N @ 26 knots gusting to 40 knots, waves to 13' at 8 seconds.  No gaps in that weather until late Thursday, staying well offshore appears to be the best way way around it.

https://www.windy.com/?43.614,-124.799,8,m:eTYacC4

Windy1007a.thumb.jpg.732501bb3abd7007fa164de00b2ed628.jpg

Windy1007b.thumb.jpg.73d78a7366fd7be8104e3e9439bb0710.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

“She'll be approaching a persistent rough area off EurekaCape Mendocino, where wind will be N @ 26 knots gusting to 40 knots, waves to 13' at 8 seconds”

Re: wave height and period, how best to “understand” this - I mean, how best to get a feel for it?

I’ve heard surfers discuss wave height/period re: suitability/quality of waves for surfing, and I’m currently “getting into” sea kayaking, because I’ve long been intrigued by it and partly to expand my understanding of weather, etc. as a sailor —and wave period definitely comes into play in sea kayaking.

But, I’ve no experience with offshore wave forecasts for sailing.  Height, I get...but re: period (combined with height), what numbers (range) are “good”/comfortable and what range are “bad”/uncomfortable?

I’m just trying to get a gut feel for it, as I have a basic gut feel for “25-30 knots” (and I know that 25-30 knots in the open ocean produces different seas than the short ones in confined waters of, say, the Georgia Strait/Salish Sea.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I tried to change "late Tuesday" to just "Tuesday" in my post yesterday but the edit feature had already timed out.

This morning (0800 Monday), she is ~165 nm west of Coos Bay, slightly south of it, ~75 nm north of the California border, doing 7.8 knots at times.  So she could be approaching that latitude tonight.  She is now ~168 nm north of Cape Mendocino, though will be ~200 nm west of it on her present heading of 201 degrees.

Her blog is still down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I may get corrected on some of this. ButI should be close. 

The waves on the straight of Georgia are relatively short period compared to eaves of the same height on the open seas, mostly. These 13' 8sec period she is hitting now though are more like our waves in the straights of Georgia. Which makes them steep. 

 

10' eaves on a 12 sec period ate very gentle. 10' 6 second will be much steeper. 

Take a sheet of graph paper and use the horizontal for period and the vertical for height. Look at some weather buoys and make some graph of what they are reporting. I don't think it will show you exactly the right pitch of the waves. But it will give u some idea of the relative change.  Graph some.conditions you are familiar with and then some new ones and u should be able.to visualize the difference. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeanne has been down in the Southern ocean on multiple occasions. I don't think she will be bothered by whats coming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

“She'll be approaching a persistent rough area off EurekaCape Mendocino, where wind will be N @ 26 knots gusting to 40 knots, waves to 13' at 8 seconds”

Re: wave height and period, how best to “understand” this - I mean, how best to get a feel for it?

I’ve heard surfers discuss wave height/period re: suitability/quality of waves for surfing, and I’m currently “getting into” sea kayaking, because I’ve long been intrigued by it and partly to expand my understanding of weather, etc. as a sailor —and wave period definitely comes into play in sea kayaking.

But, I’ve no experience with offshore wave forecasts for sailing.  Height, I get...but re: period (combined with height), what numbers (range) are “good”/comfortable and what range are “bad”/uncomfortable?

I’m just trying to get a gut feel for it, as I have a basic gut feel for “25-30 knots” (and I know that 25-30 knots in the open ocean produces different seas than the short ones in confined waters of, say, the Georgia Strait/Salish Sea.)

You need to consider wave height and period along with other factors like wave direction, whether there are multiple wave trains in the area, the kind of boat you are on, your course in relationship to the waves and the characteristics of the boat you are on. When we were traversing the Indian Ocean from Cocos-Keeling to Mauritius we had many days with winds between 25 and 35 and waves in the high teens to low 20' range but with a long period perhaps 12 seconds. It was entirely comfortable. Based on my Lake Ontario experience (many years) the idea of 30 knot winds and 20 foot waves would have kept me up at night but with the right conditions there is no problem. In general wave periods 10 seconds and up are good and 7 seconds or less are bad for me. Also waves in the open ocean are much nicer than on-soundings, in particular if the depth is less than 60 feet.

Another factor comes to mind, if the water is warm that is a plus. Much nicer to be hit by spray, and even the occasional wave if the water is 80F or more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The waves appear to be coming from the WSW, which puts them a bit starboard of her bow.  This isn't going to be particularly comfortable.

This is from my post on Jeanne's Facebook page:

Quote

As of 8:00 AM PDT, Jeanne is about 160 nautical miles due west of Cape Blanco, near the Oregon / California border. Her 24-hour run was about 157 NM, giving an average speed or 6.5 kts. She is currently seeing wind of about 12 kts, and seas around 8 ft. I'm glad to see that she is continuing to sail SSW, on a course of about 200°, since that will take her west of "Gale Alley", the region between southern Oregon and San Francisco where we commonly see persistent strong winds and difficult conditions.

The attached images show her 8AM position, as well as my guess for her position tomorrow morning. That image shows the "wind gust" forecast, rather than the more typical "average wind" that I use. We can see that if she maintains her present course and speed, she will avoid the worst of Gale Alley.

2056547082_10-8-180800PDTforecast24.jpg.90f9962af1b9ac343332b5a6cd1aa6f5.jpg855318610_10-8-180800PDTwind.jpg.5eaeed726189611a3b2ca5364db66315.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a buoy-cam photo, from 275 nm west of Coos Bay, Oregon (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46002).  Jeanne's about 160nm west of Cape Blanco, which is not close but still in the general area.  The buoy is reporting an average windspeed of 15.5 kts , and classifying the wave conditions as "SWELL" (this must be a height/period thing).

Z98A_2018_10_08_1510.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeanne's latest blog entry (in case her server locks up again)

Day4 6-7th October 2018 Rough seas and strong winds make for a bumpy but fast

 
  • Last updated: Never
  • Created: 08 October 2018 16:46
  • Hits: 5

3.20pm PDT I've finally got to my morning coffee, having come down below after taking a second reef in the main - and we're still making 7knots! I'm clearly not getting all my priorities right.... should have had that coffee a lot earlier...

We were heeling a lot and winds had definitely increased to over twenty knots - and, according to the forecasts I've been looking at, might well increase more - so I thought it best to reduce sail. Funny that I was thinking about how reefing helps heel without always reducing speed as I started reefing down. Didn't really expect it to happen - but here we are, still making 7 kt....

I'm seeing a patch of blue sky now - hope it increases. Would make a nice change from the grey skies of this morning. It had been pleasantly sunny yesterday, although still rolly from the storm the day before and laterthere was a hazy sun - so not much solar power was coming in to batteries.

I spent a time yesterday afternoon, clearing up the mess of wet lines in the cockpit and, soon after dark, with NW winds eased to around 15kt, I let out the two reefs in the main - our speed had dropped to 4.5kt. Dark grey clouds - looking a bit rain-threatening, I had thought around sunset. No stars tonight. The wind backed into the W after midnight. but we kept up a good speed S.

By 3 a.m., the wind had backed more and had died to a hint of a southerly.. We drifted around in a big circle while I took a nap. Then, predictably, the wind played its tricks - I was awakened before dawn by the wind having got up - strongly enough for me to take in a reef in the rain that had come with the wind - from the S still - damn!! At that point we were heading E.

I was totally unclear as to my best course to steer - E or W - neither were good choices! I didn't want to get any closer to the coast because Cape Blanco lies not so far ahead (just under two days away) and a good offing is needed to avoid its usual strong winds and rough seas. I tacked around to head W but soon found us heading more N as the wind veered into the W- not good! I tacked back again in the increasing light.of a grey dawn.

Finally, the wind veered into the NW - and since then, we've been happily sailing south again....but in rough, quite steep, seas. I'm having to hold on tightly when I move around and every now and then we're hit sideways by a wave - and something I thought was stowed safely decides it's time to jump onto the cabin sole.... Rough seas on the beam, or nearly so, are the worse!

My ratatouille stew will finally be finished tonight - it's proved its worth as a meal prepared in advance of leaving on a long passage. You never know what weather to expect, never mind the forecasts, and it's so good to have a good instant meal that only needs heating, while settling down into sailing the boat again. I thought I was going to have a pleasant easy ride down to California - but it's proved anything but!

1200 PDT - end of Day 4. We made 106 n.ml. DMG over the 24 hr perod - not too bad considerig we were making no way for three hours in a light S wind before dawn and soon after that were headed W and then N!.

Position & weather report posted to Winlink not long before midday PDT (1900 GMT):

TIME: 2018/10/07 17:40GMT LATITUDE: 45-18.75N LONGITUDE: 127-04.53W

COURSE: 195T SPEED: 6.2kt WIND_SPEED: 20kt WIND_DIR: NW

SWELL_HT: 2.0m CLOUDS: 100% BARO: 1020hPa TREND: 0

AIR_TEMP: 17.0C SEA_TEMP: 16.0C COMMENT: Grey sky, overnight rain stopped now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/5/2018 at 12:04 PM, valis said:

Did you get a "model comparison" preview this morning on windy.com?  I played with it a bit, and now I can't find it.  It looked interesting.

This is what I'm talking about.  It just popped up again when I refreshed the windy.com screen, with a message "You may like this":

745602742_ModelComparison.thumb.jpg.f4d431707699ba25a45b374594606144.jpg

I click on the upper-left menu icon and the comparison stuff disappears.  I can't figure out how to get it back.  Subscribe, perhaps?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, valis said:

This is what I'm talking about.  It just popped up again when I refreshed the windy.com screen, with a message "You may like this":

I figured it out.  Right-click on the chart, and some options pop up.  select "Forecast for this location".  A window opens up at the bottom of the page.  Choose"Wind" and you see the model comparisons.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, valis said:

I figured it out.  Right-click on the chart, and some options pop up.  select "Forecast for this location".  A window opens up at the bottom of the page.  Choose"Wind" and you see the model comparisons.

When you left-click on the chart you get a flag with the wind value. If you click on the V arrow on the flag the info box at the bottom appears. I'm assuming it's just a different way to get to the same place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I listened into the Pacific Seafarers Net on 14.300 Mhz this evening and I was just able to hear the net control station repeat Jeanne's position as 41.49N 128.44W as of 0320Z.

Not very good conditions and I was unable to hear Jeanne's signal, but fortunately the net control operator repeated her check-in report.

73 de K7IM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm currently in NorCal, and so far have been barely able to hear Jeannie's PacSea Net check-ins.  Last night I could only hear one net control operator.  I checked in as a relay operator, but never heard a boat.  Perhaps I will pick her up tomorrow or Weds, when she will be offshore of my location?  Not the best propagation!

The satellite AIS (via marinetraffic.com) had only received a few pings since she started.  Fortunately, her tracker is doing pretty well, even if it misses the occasional hourly report.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why did she choose to start her journey during such a rough period? Or is it always that rough and there's no such thing as a "good time" to start such a trip?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's more about hitting better weather in  the Southern Ocean than weathering a few fall gales off west coast USA. Note that the Vendée Globe race always starts in November too - not a nice time to be crossing the Bay of Biscay, but a "good time" to start a solo circumnavigation from Sables d'Olonne.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Blog update: Day5 Sun-Mon 7-8th October 2018 Dolphins came to play around Nereida!

Tuesday, 0500?
Position: 41.0494,-129.322 (Google Map) (tracker)
Heading: 211 degrees
Speed: 5.8 knots
Waves are 8' @ 8 seconds (Windy: https://www.windy.com/?39.979,-124.448,8,m:eNgaczF )

~231 nm west (and slightly north) of Eureka, she'll be far from the worst weather near Cape Mendo ("another Cape, notorious for strong wind and bad seas, to be passed with a good offing."), Tuesday evening.  Savvy!

Windy1009a.thumb.jpg.735de7f42e145fae860df44d33260ccf.jpg

Windy1009b.thumb.jpg.f7b9937b70862cbff271778a487dfd5d.jpg

gmap1009a.thumb.jpg.9ca3c906dbe62540b1427b8dd26e4f0b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With a wave period of 8 seconds, the boat still probably requires active steering but at least the wind is over the shoulder and she'll make good time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With any solo RTW attempt her autopilot/wind vane better be able to cope with just about any conditions without hand steering, otherwise you'd get exhausted.

Look at that underwater ridge coming straight out from Mendocino. Runs right up into the Continenal Shelf and shore if you zoom in. No wonder sea conditions can get ugly there.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm hope this most recent tracker position is in error.  Tracker shows her moving back north at 1.9 kts, but this report follows the previous one by just four minutes.  The tracker time is Oct 10, 0306 AM (which is actually 02:06 Z, or 7:06 PM PDT -- I don't know why, but the tracker is showing UTC + 1 hour)  I tried listening in to the PacSea Net just now, but didn't hear her (I hardly heard anyone).  The tracker is skipping a fair number of hourly reports, including the one following the most recent.  I hope it's just a glitch, and it probably is.

10-10-18 questionable report.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Zonker said:

With any solo RTW attempt her autopilot/wind vane better be able to cope with just about any conditions without hand steering, otherwise you'd get exhausted.

Speaking of autopilots, I just remembered years back, at the end of her first RTW, her autopilot lost power or some such, and her boat drove up on a remote Mexican beach, where it got holed and destroyed.  That’ll teach you to be careful of autopilots near coasts, I suppose (speaking of the autopilot being able to cope with just about any condition...).

 

http://thescuttlefish.com/2014/07/life-in-salt-jeanne-socrates-the-oldest-woman-ever-to-complete-a-solo-non-stop-global-circumnavigaton/

A760B762-ED45-4039-BE16-937034BA4599.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, valis said:

I'm hope this most recent tracker position is in error.

Yep. just a glitch.  Back on track at 10:02 PM PDT (236 deg @ 5.8 kts), and she did check in to the PacSea Net.  

I do think she's made enough westing for now,  and heading SSE might be advisable to avoid the upcoming light air pushing up from the south by Saturday.  But jibing now would send her back into stronger winds than she prefers.  She does mention this in her latest blog post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Foiling Optimist said:

This thread should be cross-hosted with Ocean Racing Anarchy. Just on principle.

I popped in to the Golden Globe Race to mention it, in fact paraphrasing your description of her nonstop RTW attempt as the un-GGR (old lady on a new, fast boat vs. mostly younger guys on older, slow boats).  But I agree...although it’s not really a race (but I suppose she’s “racing” herself in a sense).

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looked like she just jibed (that's another bogus report just prior to the latest, apparently caused by satphone / tracker conflict.)

1363611335_10-10-181751ZPosition.jpg.2348768254b31f42b56f31528d6f8936.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saturday, 0700 California time (Day 10)
Position: 33.6621,-127.18 (Google Map) (tracker),
                 444 nm. west of Pt. Fermin, San Pedro, ~20 nm. south of L.A.
Heading: 125 degrees
Speed: 5.8 knots

Wind: NNW @ 14 knots, gusting to 18, waves are 7' @ 9 seconds
https://www.windy.com/?34.809,-121.729,7,m:eBgacDq
Note: pattern of Santa Ana winds on Sunday, originating in southern Utah and Nevada, blasting San Felipe (and Oxnard) on Monday, are fascinating!

https://svnereida.com/blog
blog: Day9 Thurs-Fri 11-12th October 2018 First squid on deck this morning! Too small to cook.
blog: Day8 Wed/Thurs 10/11th October 2018 Overnight rain, sunny & cloudy day, rolling around still...
blog: Day7 Tues-Wed 9-10th October 2018 430 ml WNW of San Francisco at midday Wed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the great circle route and distance (6087 nm.) from her current position to Cape Horn.  Weather tactics will prevail, of course.  Perhaps early to mid December rounding the Horn at her current pace?  Near the southern hemisphere's "summer solstice".

tracker1013a.jpg.33941594b0402eaf8900b46138ea5dd2.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was why she always left here so late.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

P.S.  According to this GPS Visualizer tool: http://www.gpsvisualizer.com/calculators , her current heading of 117 degrees is 35 degrees east (to port) of the great circle route heading, which is ~152 degrees.  I have no idea if it's her intention to stay near that shortest route?

In addition to distance between positions every 24 hours, it would be interesting to log "Distance Made Good" toward a waypoint near the horn: -56,-70 (Google map), for example.  The average of those numbers would yield a good ETA date.

GMap1013a.thumb.jpg.352d6bd0a75bf2eaab92b01d8d6b3ed9.jpg

Come to think of it, she may want to aim for a point far west and south of that...  Today, below:

Windy1013a.thumb.jpg.569953a50f70b664022fe804bb5b2ea2.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeanne told me yesterday that she was planning to cross the ITCZ at around 130 deg W, of course depending on conditions.  You typically don't want to aim much further east than that, since the region of light and fluky winds, thunderstorms, etc,  is usually wider towards the east.  I can't imagine that she will want to fight the southerlies towards the South America shore (which are similar to the regular northerlies along the west coast of North America).  She's probably going to stay well west until she can pick up the southern westerlies.

Right now, she's been heading SE or ESE to stay out of the dead air to the S and SSW.  Looking at the GRIBs for the next seven days (I know, not to be trusted, but better than my wild guessing), I think it's time for her to start going south again.  I've modified some generic polars to be close to how she's been sailing, and using the qtVlm routing program, as well as my gut feeling.  I suspect that she will stay on her current ESE course for a bit longer though.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"22 log entries" link at lower left of this page: http://mmsn-shiptrak.herokuapp.com/?callsign=kc2iov&filter=30&_m=f

Quote
Entry Date Position Comment
1 Fri Sep 14 2018 17:20:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 48° 50' 43" N / 123° 29' 19" W Saltspring Island. Arrived SISC, near Ganges, from Long Hbr, Fri 14th Sept
2 Fri Sep 21 2018 18:00:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 48° 36' 34" N / 123° 9' 12" W Arrived Roche Hbr from Canoe Cove on Friday 21st Sept
3 Sun Sep 23 2018 00:00:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 48° 36' 34" N / 123° 9' 12" W Arrived Cadboro Bay from Roche Hbr on Saturday 22nd Sept
4 Tue Sep 25 2018 12:35:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 48° 25' 20" N / 123° 22' 10" W Moved over to Victoria Inner Hbr from Cadboro Bay - getting ready to leave
5 Wed Oct 03 2018 23:01:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 48° 27' 56" N / 124° 30' 49" W Approaching Juan de Fuca Entrance - wind died and backed an hour or so ago
6 Thu Oct 04 2018 10:41:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 48° 7' 31" N / 125° 18' 52" W Goose-winged almost dead downwind in light air - 25ml off WA coast
7 Thu Oct 04 2018 23:13:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 47° 52' 23" N / 125° 32' 25" W Wind veering and beginning to increase - no longer drifting!
8 Fri Oct 05 2018 08:45:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 47° 48' 27" N / 125° 37' 4" W Wind increased a lot - drifting while hove to. All's well on board.
9 Fri Oct 05 2018 19:07:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 48° 20' 43" N / 125° 47' 26" W wind finally eased to ~16 kt. Hoping to get underway very soon - at last.
10 Fri Oct 05 2018 21:19:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 48° 12' 46" N / 125° 47' 20" W wind finally eased to ~16 kt. Hoping to get underway very soon - at last.
11 Fri Oct 05 2018 23:40:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 48° 3' 16" N / 125° 53' 31" W Gybed around soon sfter getting underway. Rolly seas, clear sky
12 Sat Oct 06 2018 06:13:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 47° 30' 46" N / 126° 20' 40" W Going well under starry sky. Seas still rolly,90ml E Ocean City
13 Sat Oct 06 2018 12:00:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 47° 16' 60" N / 126° 27' 0" W Fluffy white cumulus. Seas still rolly,100ml W Westhaven Cove, nr. Ocean City
14 Sun Oct 07 2018 10:40:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 45° 18' 45" N / 127° 4' 32" W Grey sky, overnight rain stopped now
15 Mon Oct 08 2018 13:25:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 42° 34' 4" N / 128° 26' 17" W Passing Cape Blanco, on to Mendocino. Sky getting lighter, hint of sun
16 Tue Oct 09 2018 12:00:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 40° 25' 54" N / 129° 52' 49" W Passing Cape Mendocino, 250 ml off. Rolling around in steep, close-to seas
17 Wed Oct 10 2018 12:00:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 38° 35' 50" N / 131° 41' 10" W 430 ml WNW of San Francisco 138/145 ml 24hr DMG (7 lost to gybe)
18 Thu Oct 11 2018 06:30:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 37° 2' 9" N / 130° 42' 14" W Dark night - hint of rain
19 Thu Oct 11 2018 12:00:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 36° 36' 50" N / 130° 19' 50" W Rolling about still....Over 400 ml W of Monterrey Bay. 135ml DMG in 24hr
20 Fri Oct 12 2018 12:00:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 34° 38' 5" N / 128° 56' 22" W 410ml W of Pt Conception.. 137ml DMG in 24hr
21 Sat Oct 13 2018 05:29:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 33° 44' 38" N / 127° 19' 28" W 445 0ml W of Los Angeles.. Dark, starry but hazy sky
22 Sat Oct 13 2018 12:00:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) 33° 27' 14" N / 126° 42' 46" W 400 ml W of Santa Catalina Island. 131 n.ml. DMG in 24hr

tracker1013b.thumb.png.c4335ac6e83ee14f6d7d49d79a4d0c72.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites