Jud - s/v Sputnik

Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

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Not sure if I count as experienced or not but I've done a few miles..

Three rig hardware problems... lost one mast when a t-Ball thingo on the port lower gave way... now have tangs on the lowers... Deck fitting failed on the inner forestay.... within the deck...  replaced with better fitting ...Stbd lower chainplate staple  suffered 95% failure and came very close to losing a second mast.... replaced all 4 staples with ones 100% meatier.... all three probs were design/construction issues invisible to the naked eye... all involved stainless steel crevice corrosion....

Apart from that blew out a 10 year old mainsail down by the Horn once.... own fault .. was rotten...

Never had cordage issues ... always replace well ahead of time... chafed through a lazy genoa sheet  on the inner forestay once when crossing the  pacific in the trades... own fault...

Electrical... not really but could write a book on my mechanical issues when coastal...

Thats in 25 years

Oh.. lost my s/s Aux rudder near where Suzie is just now.... maybe 300 miles west .... fell off a very big confused sea but that was just one of those things....

 

A bit of Jeanne's does sound maintenance related but what has gone wrong for her this trip? Solar and furler is all I can think of.  I know when we were in the Falklands in 2011 she had a few probs and sailed with S/steerer probs which she then tried to fix unsuccessfully in the lee of Gough Island....

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A bit of Jeanne's does sound maintenance related but what has gone wrong for her this trip? Solar and furler is all I can think of

Well, her gooseneck is pretty FUBAR, now held in place with lashings, and her reefing and lazyjack lines are giving her problems.  Her generator conked out at the start (she burned out the impeller by not opening the seawater cooling seacock, it's fixed now).

During the Pacific Cup as comms boat I heard about most of the gear failures.  The fleet has had halyards chafe through, blocks fail, rudders fail, stays and shrouds break or come free, booms break, goosenecks fail, electrics fail, tanks and hoses leak, rudder shafts leak, and similar problems.  The 2012 Vic-Maui fleet suffered some serious damage, including a broken mast. Of course there have been shredded sails and broken poles, but these are almost considered consumable items when you're racing hard.  These boats are generally well-maintained and inspected before the race, but things do slip by even a careful survey, and sometimes the rig really isn't up to the thrashing it receives. 

Before a big passage I inspect the standing and running rigging, and replace or end-for-end sheets, guys, halyards as needed.  I've had minor items fail mid-ocean and others require careful attention along the way, but nothing too bad.  My boat is pretty heavily built and I don't push it nearly as hard as some racers, and that probably makes a difference.

It does sound to me that some of Jeanne's problems are due to a less-rigorous preparation than might be appropriate.  When we get to know our boats very well, we may become a little complacent, knowing that a particular bit of hardware has served well for many years.  Of course I wasn't there when Jeanne was preparing, so I can't really say.

 

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1 hour ago, valis said:

Well, her gooseneck is pretty FUBAR, now held in place with lashings, and her reefing and lazyjack lines are giving her problems.  Her generator conked out at the start (she burned out the impeller by not opening the seawater cooling seacock, it's fixed now).

 

Was that her gooseneck or the fitting at the foot of the mast for the vang? At a loss for words that a builder or sparmaker would secure such a thing with blind rivets... I have an old fashioned tackle to the deck for my vang but the mast ( Australian built to Selden specs ) has an unused fitting about 12 inches off the deck secured with 10M bolts...

 

Oh a burnt out impellor and a closed sea cock ... now that has never happened before :)

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Go Jeanne!

Getting cold down there now with 32 deg F east of the horn and 50 where she is now. 30ft significant wave hieght at the horn now. She is a ways from rounding yet but conditions look miserable farther south.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-48;-92;2&l=temperature-2m

 

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7 hours ago, Cisco said:

Was that her gooseneck or the fitting at the foot of the mast for the vang?:)

Oops.  Yes, that was the vang, not the gooseneck.  Not nearly so bad.

She's still hove-to.  I hope she gets going soon.  If she starts now, I see the worst WX around Dec 11, where she gets 29 kts average GFS wind.  My gribs don't get her all the way to the Horn (my waypoint is south of the shelf.)  856405986_routing12-6.thumb.jpg.5bc929b3771e9e4ef8ec3a60101f86ea.jpg

On the other hand, if I look at Windy.com, the differences between the GFS and the ECMWF forecasts for a week from now are terrifying.  Perhaps she would do better to go slow for a while.  I believe that she is getting GFS gribs, I will ask her.  Anyway, the models will probably be more in agreement not so far out.  I never trust a seven-day forecast regardless of the model.

GFS:

219027347_gfs12-6.jpg.2b22636ca96d2aa7ef245687cf6590fd.jpg

 

ECMWF:

1756246631_ecmwf12-6.jpg.3779cc21715efb96e8c7e1e89f13845a.jpg

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Looks like she finally got the genoa out of the water and is sailing towards the Horn.  The tracker points show 3.9 or 5.8 kts.

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Excellent news!

 

Ship is bound for Puerto ***Madryn*** in Argentina.. should be there in a week or so. Edit... or more likely she will go ashore on the pilot boat  at Punta Arenas..

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4 hours ago, valis said:

Looks like she finally got the genoa out of the water and is sailing towards the Horn.  The tracker points show 3.9 or 5.8 kts.

tracker_2018Dec07b.png.426ade6101b8335a0bbe0f808a4771df.png

07/12/2018  18:16 UTC, Lat/Lng: -47.692,-95.164,  Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 148 degrees  (SES)
https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,-47.692,-95.164,6,m:cmtadww

Jeanne is now less than 800 nm. west of Isla Covadonga on the west coast of Chile, ~1,200 nm. minimum great circle distance to clear Cape Horn, 600 nm. to the south.  Staying south and west looks wise to me, as the wind can shift dramatically west, making Chile a big lee shore, as it does on Monday.

windy_2018Dec07f.jpg.5a3910fed1a45273d55201c7ffa7e912.jpg

windy_2018Dec07f2.jpg.bdae850c3c39ab845b26090ceb751048.jpg

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Five and a half+ days at 140 miles per day (5.83 knots) would cover 815 nm. by Thursday evening...  Moving the reference point two degrees west and one degree south (-57,-78 below) because south and west of Cape Horn looks safer to me?  Taking a day longer to get there would not be bad (5 knots, 122 nm./day).

windy_2018Dec08b.thumb.jpg.d7af5cb89f9aa22107c0b894d97d2b71.jpg

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tracker_2018Dec09a.thumb.png.cad8f9f5cefaccad7cafd74a7f89dd83.png

09/12/2018  18:29 UTC, Lat/Lng: -49.991,-90.839,  Speed: 3.9 knots, Heading: 98 degrees  (E)
https://www.windy.com/?-49.991,-90.839,5,m:chTadD7   
(Wind: S 17 knots, gusting to 23 knots, Waves: SW 9 feet @ 9 secs.)

Now only ~590 nm. west of the nearest points of "land" on the west coast of Chile, ~360 nm. north of Cape Horn.

windy_2018Dec09a.thumb.jpg.50bbbf850379ed4a26b64ba9f0dd44d1.jpg

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For the last few hours Jeanne's been doing less than one kt, to the SE.  I don't see any obvious reason why she should be slowing down to avoid bad WX, so I wonder what is going on?

On her Facebook page a friend said he had talked with her yesterday: 

Quote

Some problems with furling equipment on her staysail and mainsail reefing but under control.

Perhaps this?

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11 minutes ago, valis said:

For the last few hours Jeanne's been doing less than one kt, to the SE.  I don't see any obvious reason why she should be slowing down to avoid bad WX, so I wonder what is going on?

On her Facebook page a friend said he had talked with her yesterday: 

Quote

Some problems with furling equipment on her staysail and mainsail reefing but under control.

Perhaps this?

The rapid movement of weather systems relative to the slow boat speed is... dramatic.  There is even snow approaching her track!  North of 55 S degrees latitude!!

windy_2018Dec10d.thumb.png.c323e686f5e9d6b392e4d4b026bf79b3.png

windy_2018Dec10e.thumb.png.e64501b4832e2c2c8ec64f038d4a8f63.png

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Jeanne's current speed is 0.0 knots, Heading: 179 degrees  (drifting S for ~8 hours).  No blog update yet, as of 13:59 Pacific.

Ah, here it is: https://svnereida.com/blog/4948-day-68-sun-mon-9-10-dec-2018-finally-two-magnificent-wandering-albatross-seen-hove-to-again

If sailed deliberately, even conservatively at 5 knots, she could make it to the -56,-76 waypoint in six days.  But would she want to?  The forecast that day (Saturday, 15 December) calls for a 90 degree turn from NW to SW wind direction, blowing directly onto the nearest shore just 144 nm. away (from marker "2" to "3"), for two days.

windy_2018Dec10f.thumb.jpg.f8d63fab0b04300cbd22747fd4c2db2d.jpg

windy_2018Dec10g.jpg

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46 minutes ago, ProaSailor said:

But would she want to?  

Wind speed might be a bit strong (maybe 30-40 the says Windy?), but it looks to me like a broad reach south of the Horn that way?  Hard to say/guess!  She’s hearing forecasts of 50/60, 8m swell at 10 sec on Mon/Tues when she was expecting to round -so maybe not!

How far is her current position (2 in your pic?) from Cape Horn?

Looking at her blog, she says Uku (in Golden Globe Race) will possibly be rounding Horn when she will be, but he looks far off to me.  Yellow boat in pic:

55600FF2-91B2-4122-B552-BA3764244190.png

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27 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Wind speed might be a bit strong (maybe 30-40 the says Windy?), but it looks to me like a broad reach south of the Horn that way?  Hard to say/guess!  She’s hearing forecasts of 50/60, 8m swell at 10 sec on Mon/Tues when she was expecting to round.

How fat is her current position (2 in your pic?) from Cape Horn?

Looking at her blog, she says Uku (in Golden Globe Race) will possibly be rounding Horn when she will be.  Yellow boat in pic:

55600FF2-91B2-4122-B552-BA3764244190.png

https://yb.tl/ggr2018

Only a small change in heading needed to move my reference waypoint (Marker "2" below) four degrees west to -56.-80.

More sea room from the mainland, a longer approach from due west toward Cape Horn.  Marker "3" below is ~60 nm. south of the island.  More might be better.  I don't think I'd make it a priority to sail close enough to actually see Cape Horn myself, though many do.  PRESSURE along that coast, all the time!

windy_2018Dec10h.thumb.jpg.328b885c7971b32b26f10e6f2914524f.jpg

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Jeanne has been locked on the same heading and speed for ~14 hours.  Nice sailing ahead for ~four days, then SW gusting to ~50+ knots around Cape Horn on Sunday.

11/12/2018  13:37 UTC, Lat/Lng: -51.434,-87.317,  Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 122 degrees  (SE)
https://www.windy.com/?-51.434,-87.317,6,m:cg0adFw  (Wind: NW 23 knots, gusting to 30 knots, Waves: W 10 feet @ 8 secs.)

windy_2018Dec11a.thumb.jpg.4ead9abeec295a6380df335e9304891b.jpg

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Watching this wind prediction video on Ventusky. Always interesting to follow her progress.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-54.1;-102.4;3&l=wind-10m

"Monday 4am Spoke to Peter, ZL1PWM, at 2am and he repeated a weather warning of possibility of a nasty system expected in Cape Horn area at the exact same time as I was expecting to be there late next weekend: Sun/Mon. 50-60kt winds and 8m swell with 10sec period - very unpleasant and likely to be dangerous...
Discussed my options - very limited, except that if we were to continue on SE, we could not avoid that big system - so best to stay near to 50S. I don't want to get much closer to Chile coast by heading E so my only sensible option is to heave to - now done.

Will stay here, drifting a little, until weather outlook shows it to be clearly safe to move on. Uku on 'One and All' had the same warning - he's likely to round the Cape when I do."  https://svnereida.com/blog

 

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